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ROAD TRAFFIC MORATLITY IN RUSSIA: RECORD LINKAGE OF POLICE DATA AND VITAL STATISTICS

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Abstract

Presentation on Roundtable on monitoring of key indicators for road safety in the Russian Federation organized by WHO regional office on 27 – 28 February 2019 in Moscow.
ROAD TRAFFIC MORATLITY IN RUSSIA: RECORD LINKAGE OF
POLICE DATA AND VITAL STATISTICS
Т.А. Fattakhov, А.I. Pyankova
Institute of Demography,
National Research University Higher School of Economics
World Health Organization
Roundtable on monitoring of key indicators for road safety in the Russian Federation
27 28 February 2019
Deadline was specified: by 2024, reduce a mortality rate to 4 deaths per 100 000
inhabitants and by 2030, seek for zero mortality rate.
In 2018 a country-level goal was set as to raise road safety and minimize the
number of road traffic deaths”.
Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly of 01.03.2018.
Decree of the Government RF of 8 January 2018 №1-р “Road
Safety Strategy in the Russian Federation, 2018-2024
Goals set within new Russian road safety program
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
The number of fatalities
is 18214
The possible number of fatalities
in 2024 is 5857.
Road traffic death rate in Russia, per 100 thou inhabitants
12.4
4.0
Source: police data; Rosstat's population projection
To what extent is it possible that this number of people will die in road traffic
accidents in 2024 at a given death rate and projected population by 2024?
Source: IRTAD, police data
Country
The year when death rate was
13 fatalities per 100 thou
The year when death rate
was 4 fatalities per 100
thou
The required
period of time to
achieve a death
rate of 4 fatalities
per 100 thou
Death rate in 2017
Norway
1975
2008
33
2.0
Sweden
1977
2009
32
2.5
Switzerland
1989
2011
22
2.7
UK
1974
2009
35
2.8
Denmark
1989
2011
22
3.2
Ireland
1997
2012
15
3.3
Netherlands
1981
2009
28
3.6
Israel
1979
2012
33
3.7
Japan
1975
2014
39
3.7
Germany
1987
2016
29
3.8
Spain
2002
2013
11
3.9
Finland
1990
2017
27
3.9
Russia
2018
2024
6
4.0
Are targets and deadlines within Russian road safety program
comparable with international experience?
The number of years to achieve a death rate of 4 deaths per 100 thou inhabitants in different
countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Mean death rate
The lowest death rate
The highest death rate
48 regions
35 regions
Road traffic death rate is highly uneven within Russian regions,
per 100 thou inhabitants
Where the set road traffic death rate could be achieved in Russia? (1)
Source: police data
City population size:
Country/group of the country:
over 1 million
citizens
500 thou -999 thou
citizens
250 thou - 499
thou citizens
100 thou -249
thou citizens
below 100 thou
citizens
Germany (2014)
1.7
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.8
France (2014)
2.3
2.6
3.2
3.3
3.7
UK (2014)
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.8
3.9
Spain (2014)
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.3
Italy (2014)
3.7
3.4
4.3
5.3
5.0
Northern Europe (2014)*
1.2
1.3
1.2
2.0
5.5
Eastern Europe (2014)**
4.0
3.5
4.0
4.0
4.8
Other western Europe counties (2014)***
1.4
2.2
2.9
2.7
2.9
Russia (2015)
6.3
5.5
7.8
13.5
13.2
Road traffic death rate in cities with different population size (death rate per 100 thou
citizens)
*Sweden, Norway, Finland
**Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia
***Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Switzerland, Netherlands, Malta
Where road traffic death rate of 4 death per 100 thou could be achieved
in Russia? (2)
Source: Eurostat, police data
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Cars per 1000 citizens
Road traffic death rate per 100 thou
Города Европы
Города России
Города США
Voronezh
Perm
Berlin
New York
Houston
Los Angeles
Chicago
Moscow-1 Moscow-2
Sofia
Brussels
Paris
Dublin
Philadelphia
Rome
Dallas
Phoenix
San Diego
San Jose
Vienna
Volgograd
Omsk
Prague
Cologne
European cities
Russian cities
Cities in the USA
Moscow-1 police data; Moscow-2 vital statistics (motor vehicle traffic accidents)
The level of automobilization and road traffic death rate in some cities
in the world
The number of deaths due to road traffic accidents according to the
published data sources (solid lines) and two ways of grouping 3-
digit ICD-10 codes (dash lines) in Russia
20,3
15,9
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
death within 7 days death within 30 days
ICD-9 ICD-10
Police data
WHO mortality database
"Health for all"
Road injury,
3-digit ICD-10 codes,
Russian vital statistics
Motor vehicle traffic accidents,
3-digit ICD-10 codes,
Russian vital statistics
"The demographic yearbook of Russia", Rosstat
18,9
thousands
The number of deaths in Russia due to road traffic accidents according
to the different data sources and ways of grouping 3-digit ICD-10
codes
Vital statistics, 2016 :
WHO’s approach for combination 3-digit ICD-10 codes:
The number of deaths due to road injury (ICD-10 codes: V01-V04; V06; V09-V80; V87; V89; V99) is 19100.
The number of deaths due to motor vehicle traffic accidents (ICD-10 codes: V02-V04; V09; V12-V14; V20-V79;
V82-V87; V89) is 18969.
RosStat («The Demographic yearbook of Russia»):
The number of deaths due to motor road accidents (ICD-10 codes: V01-04.1;V09.2-3;V10-39.3-9;V40-79.4-
9;V83-86.2) is 15800.
Police data, 2016:
Within the police the number of deaths due to road traffic accidents is 20302.
What are the reasons for such discrepancy?
Data and linkage steps
3113
2063
Combined
dataset: 5003
Matches 6: 102
Combined
dataset: 2063
Non-matches: 1961
Police data:
20 302
7140
6094
3227
Combined
dataset: 26 110
Matches 1:
13162
The total number of deaths in Russia:
1 891 061
The number of deaths due to
motor vehicle traffic
accidents: 18 969
Matches 3: 2867
Matches 2: 1046
Matches 4: 114
Combined
dataset: 7140
Combined
dataset: 9035
Combined
dataset: 3227
22192: Police non-matches 1961 + Vital non-matches 1890 +Total matches 18341
5807
2940
Matches 5: 1050 Non-matches: 1890
The first
linkage
phase
The
second
linkage
phase
The third
linkage
phase
Linking variables are:
1. a date of birth and
2. a date of death of the
deceased.
Two data sources of
anonymised individual
records on fatalities in
crashes:
1. The police: 20302 records
2. Civil registration and vital
statistics: 1891061 records
Is the number of deaths beyond 30 days after crash significant
in Russia?
Time period after crash,
days
The number of deaths within
specific time period after crash
The share of deaths within
time period, %
0-1
16238
88.5
2-7
1133
6.2
8-30
906
4.9
30+
20
0.4
Errors in dates
44
Total matches
18341
100
Findings: half of deaths occurs in the day of road traffic accident
and it is registered in the region of crash
Matches
Non-matches
Total number of
cases
Motor vehicle
traffic
accidents*
Other codes
mentioning motor
vehicles
All other
codes
Police
Motor vehicle
traffic accidents
Police
Vital
statistics
17079
591
671
1961
1890
20302
20231
Matches
Linking
variables
fully
match
Died on the day of road traffic accident and
registered in ZAGS in the same region)
11381
-
-
11381
11381
1. Discrepancy: region of death registration and
region of a crash are different
1781
26
1807
1807
2. Discrepancy: codes (other transport and other
external causes)
-
349
485
834
834
3. Discrepancy: codes (medical examiner has the
grounds to select natural cause of death)
-
-
186
186
186
Linking
variables
partially
match
4. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death registration (died on the day other than road
traffic accident)
2867
114
0
2981
2981
5. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death (errors in registration of events)
1050
102
0
1152
1152
Non-
matches
Police
1961
1961
-
Motor vehicle traffic accidents
1890
-
1890
*V02-V04, V09, V12- V14, V20-V79, V82-V87, V89
Matches
Non-matches
Total number of
cases
Motor vehicle
traffic
accidents*
Other codes
mentioning motor
vehicles
All other
codes
Police
Motor vehicle
traffic accidents
Police
Vital
statistics
17079
591
671
1961
1890
20302
20231
Matches
Linking
variables
fully
match
Died on the day of road traffic accident and
registered in ZAGS in the same region)
11381
-
-
11381
11381
1. Discrepancy: region of death registration and
region of a crash are different
1781
26
1807
1807
2. Discrepancy: codes (other transport and other
external causes)
-
349
485
834
834
3. Discrepancy: codes (medical examiner has the
grounds to select natural cause of death)
-
-
186
186
186
Linking
variables
partially
match
4. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death registration (died on the day other than road
traffic accident)
2867
114
0
2981
2981
5. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death (errors in registration of events)
1050
102
0
1152
1152
Non-
matches
Police
1961
1961
-
Motor vehicle traffic accidents
1890
-
1890
*V02-V04, V09, V12- V14, V20-V79, V82-V87, V89
Findings: another 8% die in the day of the crash, but these deaths
are registered in other regions, not in the region of crash.
Matches
Non-matches
Total number of
cases
Codes for motor
vehicle traffic
accidents*
Other transport-
related codes
All other codes
Police
Motor vehicle
traffic accidents
Police
Vital
statistics
17079
591
671
1961
1890
20302
20231
Matches
Linking
variables
fully
match
Died on the day of road traffic accident and
registered in ZAGS in the same region)
11381
-
-
11381
11381
1. Discrepancy: region of death registration and
region of a crash are different
1781
26
1807
1807
2. Discrepancy: codes (other transport and other
external causes)
-
349**
485***
834
834
3. Discrepancy: codes (medical examiner has the
grounds to select natural cause of death)
-
-
186
186
186
Linking
variables
partially
match
4. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death registration (died on the day other than road
traffic accident)
2867
114
0
2981
2981
5. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death (errors in registration of events)
1050
102
0
1152
1152
Non-
matches
Police
1961
1961
-
Motor vehicle traffic accidents
1890
-
1890
*V02-V04, V09, V12- V14, V20-V79, V82-V87, V89
Findings: specific of coding of road traffic accidents in some
regions of Russia
**V01, 05-06, 15, 17-19, 80, 88, 93, 95-99; Y02-03, 31-32, 85; ***Y10-29, 33-34, 86, 89; W00-19, 20-49, 65-74, 75-84; X00-09, X58-59
Matches
Non-matches
Total number of
cases
Codes for motor
vehicle traffic
accidents*
Other transport-
related codes
All other codes
Police
Motor vehicle
traffic accidents
Police
Vital
statistics
17079
591
671
1961
1890
20302
20231
Matches
Linking
variables
fully
match
Died on the day of road traffic accident and
registered in ZAGS in the same region)
11381
-
-
11381
11381
1. Discrepancy: region of death registration and
region of a crash are different
1781
26
1807
1807
2. Discrepancy: codes (other transport and other
external causes)
-
349**
485***
834
834
3. Discrepancy: codes (medical examiner has the
grounds to select natural cause of death)
-
-
186 ****
186
186
Linking
variables
partially
match
4. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death registration (died on the day other than road
traffic accident)
2867
114
0
2981
2981
5. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death (errors in registration of events)
1050
102
0
1152
1152
Non-
matches
Police
1961
1961
-
Motor vehicle traffic accidents
1890
-
1890
*V02-V04, V09, V12- V14, V20-V79, V82-V87, V89
Findings: medical examiner's opinion does not always coincide
with police opinion on underlying cause of death
**V01, 05-06, 15, 17-19, 80, 88, 93, 95-99; Y02-03, 31-32, 85; ***Y10-29, 33-34, 86, 89; W00-19, 20-49, 65-74, 75-84; X00-09, X58-59
****A00-B99; C00-99; G00-99; I00-99; J00-99; K00-99; N00-99; R00-99; X30-39; X40-49; X60-84; 85-09; Y40-84; W85-99
Matches
Non-matches
Total number of
cases
Codes for motor
vehicle traffic
accidents*
Other transport-
related codes
All other codes
Police
Motor vehicle
traffic accidents
Police
Vital
statistics
17079
591
671
1961
1890
20302
20231
Matches
Linking
variables
fully
match
Died on the day of road traffic accident and
registered in ZAGS in the same region)
11381
-
-
11381
11381
1. Discrepancy: region of death registration and
region of a crash are different
1781
26
1807
1807
2. Discrepancy: codes (other transport and other
external causes)
-
349**
485***
834
834
3. Discrepancy: codes (medical examiner has the
grounds to select natural cause of death)
-
-
186 ****
186
186
Linking
variables
partially
match
4. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death registration are different
2867
114
0
2981
2981
5. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death (errors in registration of events)
1050
102
0
1152
1152
Non-
matches
Police
1961
1961
-
Motor vehicle traffic accidents
1890
-
1890
*V02-V04, V09, V12- V14, V20-V79, V82-V87, V89
Findings: 13% deaths occur in the day other than the day of road
traffic accident
**V01, 05-06, 15, 17-19, 80, 88, 93, 95-99; Y02-03, 31-32, 85; ***Y10-29, 33-34, 86, 89; W00-19, 20-49, 65-74, 75-84; X00-09, X58-59
****A00-B99; C00-99; G00-99; I00-99; J00-99; K00-99; N00-99; R00-99; X30-39; X40-49; X60-84; 85-09; Y40-84; W85-99
Matches
Non-matches
Total number of
cases
Codes for motor
vehicle traffic
accidents*
Other transport-
related codes
All other codes
Police
Motor vehicle
traffic accidents
Police
Vital
statistics
17079
591
671
1961
1890
20302
20231
Matches
Linking
variables
fully
match
Died on the day of road traffic accident and
registered in ZAGS in the same region)
11381
-
-
11381
11381
1. Discrepancy: region of death registration and
region of a crash are different
1781
26
1807
1807
2. Discrepancy: codes (other transport and other
external causes)
-
349**
485***
834
834
3. Discrepancy: codes (medical examiner has the
grounds to select natural cause of death)
-
-
186 ****
186
186
Linking
variables
partially
match
4. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death registration are different
2867
114
0
2981
2981
5. Discrepancy: date of road traffic accident and
death (errors in registration of events)
1050
102
0
1152
1152
Non-
matches
Police
1961
1961
-
Motor vehicle traffic accidents
1890
-
1890
*V02-V04, V09, V12- V14, V20-V79, V82-V87, V89
Findings: about 5% records have errors and typos
**V01, 05-06, 15, 17-19, 80, 88, 93, 95-99; Y02-03, 31-32, 85; ***Y10-29, 33-34, 86, 89; W00-19, 20-49, 65-74, 75-84; X00-09, X58-59
****A00-B99; C00-99; G00-99; I00-99; J00-99; K00-99; N00-99; R00-99; X30-39; X40-49; X60-84; 85-09; Y40-84; W85-99
Conclusion
1. It is possible to minimize discrepancies between police data and vital statistics.
2. To minimize discrepancies, the vital statistics on road traffic fatalities should include a
broader list of ICD-10 codes.
2.1. For national road safety police as for international comparisons national statistics
office should use ICD-10 codes for motor vehicle traffic accidents used by WHO in
database “Health for all” (V02-V04, V09, V12- V14, V20-V79, V82-V87, V89);
2.2. To enhance comparability it is necessary to take into account specific definition of
a motor vehicle traffic accident used by police - V06.1, V06.9, V16.1-9 (such as
tram accident), V18, V19, V80.3, V80.4, V80.5, V80.6, V82.1, V88, V99;
2.3 To enhance comparability it’s also essential take into account peculiarities of
coding road traffic accidents in some Russian regions and include in road traffic
death statistics some part of death records with codes Y29, Y31,Y32 .
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