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Future
Skills
The future of learning
and higher education
Key-Findings
The Future Skills Report
International Delphi Survey
03/2019
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Future Skills – The Future of Learning and Higher Education
International Delphi Survey
Disclaimer
The Future Skills Report presents information and data that were compiled and/ or collected
through a research team from Baden-Wurttemberg Cooperative State University in Karlsruhe,
Germany. Data in this report is subject to change without notice. The Future Skills project is
ongoing. For further information please contact us!
This work is published under the responsibility of
Prof. Ulf-Daniel Ehlers – www.ulf-ehlers.net
Baden Wurttemberg-Cooperative State University
Karlsruhe/ Germany
ulf-daniel.ehlers@dhbw-karlsruhe.de
in cooperation with
Sarah A. Kellermann
Information about the Project
This Delphi Survey is part of the Research Initiative on “Future Skills – Future Learning and
Future Higher Education”, which started in 2015. It includes research on learning and change
on organizations pathways to the future, their conceptions of the future workplace and the
definitions of futures skills and involves data- and methodological triangulation in three
separate modules building on each other.
Module A: Analysis of future organizations competence and skill development concepts
through expert ratings from a sample from more than 120 business and public organizations in
order to identify advanced future organizations (2015-2017).
Module B: In-depth interview series with more than 20 HR-, change- and business experts as
well as students on future skills, future learning and future higher education from 17 different
future organizations (2017-2018).
Module C: Delphi Survey on future skills, and drivers and scenarios for future learning and
future higher education (2018-2019).
Get more information on the projects here:
www.next-education.org – Information on the research group and related projects
www.nextskills.org – Information about the Future Skills Project
Please cite this publication as:
Ehlers, Ulf. -D., Kellermann, Sarah A. (2019): Future Skills - The Future of Learning and
Higher education. Results of the International Future Skills Delphi Survey. Karlsruhe
NonCommercial-ShareAlike/ CC BY-NC-SA: Under this license you are allowed to remix, tweak, and build
upon our work non-commercially, as long as you credit us and license your new creations under the identical
terms.
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Future Skills – The Future of Learning and Higher Education
International Delphi Survey
Key Findings
Research on future skills is the current hot topic of
the day with fundamental changes in the job market
due to a number of powerful drivers. While many
studies focus on the changes brought through
digital technologies, they relate future skills
directly to digital skills, which - as important as
they are - only represent one side of the future skill
coin. The results presented from this Delphi survey
are taking a broader approach and go beyond
digital skill demands. The approach elaborates on
an experts’ informed vision of future higher
education (HE), taking into account the demand for
future skills, outlines the four signposts of change
which will shape the learning revolution in higher
education and presents a first model of future skills
for future graduates.
It is part of an overarching research project on
“next skills” (www.nextskills.org) and collates
opinions from an international experts’ panel of
almost 50 experts from higher education and
business. Experts were asked both, the degree of
relevance, as well as the timeframe of adoption for
future skills, future higher education scenarios and
the driving pillars of change.
I. Future Skills
The term “future skills” is defined as the ‘ability to
act successful on a complex problem in a future
unknown context of action’. It refers to an
individuals’ disposition to act in a self-organized
way, visible to the outside as performance.
The future skills model divides future skills into
three interrelated dimensions: The first Future Skill
dimension is the subjective dimension of futures
skills profiles. It is relating to an individuals’
subjective, personal abilities to learn, adapt and
develop in order to improve their opportunities to
productively participate in the workforce of
tomorrow, actively shape the future working
environment and involve themselves into forming
societies to cope with future challenges. It contains
seven future skill profiles.
The second Future Skill Dimension is relating to an
individual’s ability to act self-organized in relation
to an object (object dimension), a task or a certain
subject matter related issue. It is emphasizing a
new approach which is rooted into the current
understanding of knowledge but is suggesting to
take knowledge several steps up the ladder, connect
it to motivation, values and purpose and
impregnate it with the disposition to act self-
organized in the knowledge domain in question. It
is not just a quest for more knowledge but for
dealing with knowledge in a different way which is
resulting into professionalism and not into
knowledge expertise.
The third Future Skill Dimension is relating to an
individual’s ability to act self-organized in relation
to its social environment (social-dimension), the
society and organizational environment. It is
emphasizing the individuals dual role as the curator
of its social portfolio of membership in several
organizational spheres and at the same time having
the role of rethinking organizational spaces and
creating organizational structures anew to make it
future proof. It contains an array of five skill
profiles.
Within these three dimensions, sixteen skill
profiles have been defined. A skill profile is an
array containing further subskills.
A. Subject and individual development related
skills: (1) Autonomy, (2) Self-initiative, (3) Self-
management, (4) Need/ motivation for
achievement, (5) Personal agility, (6) Autonomous
learning competence, (7) Self-efficacy.
B. Object-related skills (Instrumental skills): (8)
Agility, (9) Creativity, (10) Tolerance for
ambiguity, (11) Digital literacy, (12) Ability to
reflect
C. Social world/ organization-related skills:
Sense-making, Future mindset, Cooperation skills,
Communication competence
II. Future Learning
The Delphi resulted into hallmark indications on
the shift from academic education and teaching to
active learning of choice and autonomy. Higher
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Future Skills – The Future of Learning and Higher Education
International Delphi Survey
education institutions in the future will provide a
learning experience which is fundamentally
different than the model of today. Timeframe for
the time of adoption vary but for many aspects a
close or mid-term timeframe has been estimated
through the Delphi experts. The dimensions of
future learning in higher education will comprise
(1) structural aspects, i.e. academic learning as
episodic process between biographical phases
professional and private episodes throughout life,
learning as institutional patchwork instead of the
current widest-spread one-institution-model of
today, supported through more elaborated credit
transfer structures, micro-qualifications and
microcredentials, as well as aspect of (2)
pedagogical design of academic learning, i.e.
changing practices of assessment, also peer-
validation, learning communities, focus on future
skills with knowledge playing an enabling role in
interactive socio-constructive learning
environments).In general experts estimate
structure changes to become relevant much later
than changes related to academic learning design.
III. Drivers of Change in Higher Education
Four key drivers in the higher education market can
be described. Each driver has a radical change
potential for higher education institutions and
together they mutually influence each other and
span the room in which higher education likely will
develop.
There are 2 content and curriculum related drivers
(i.e. (1) personalized higher education and (2)
future skill focus) and 2 organization-structure
related drivers (i.e. (1) multi-institutional study
pathways, (2) Lifelong Higher Learning)
The profile, shape and nature of higher education
in the future will be most probably a certain pattern
of configuration along the impact each of the four
key drivers, called “pillars of change” has, and will
influence the development of higher education
strategies.
1 - An emerging focus on future skills radically
changes the current definition of graduate
attributes in higher education: The focus on a
“next mode” of studying (focus on future skills:
autonomous learning, self-organization, applying
and reflecting knowledge, creativity and
innovation, etc.) gradually replaces a reduced/
narrow focus on academic and valid knowledge
acquisition as a means to provide correct answers
for known questions based on a curriculum which
is focused on defined skills for fixed professions.
2 - Higher education increasingly becomes a multi-
institutional study experience: The provision of
higher education increasingly moves from a ‘one-
institution’ model to a ‘multi-institution’ model in
which higher education is provided through
alliances of several institutions.
3 - Students build their own personalized
curriculum: The elements of choice in academic
programs enlarge. The curriculum of academic
programs moves from a fully predefined and ‘up-
front’ given structure to a more flexible,
personalized and participatory model in which
students actively cooperate with professors/
teachers/ advisors in curriculum building of higher
education programs.
4 - Higher education institutions turn towards
providing offerings for lifelong higher learning
services: The current model of higher education, to
prepare students (up front) for a future profession,
is equally complimented with higher lifelong
learning offerings.
IV. Four Scenarios for Future HE
The Delphi survey made a point to view future
higher education from a students’ perspective and
envisioned future learning experiences. Four
scenarios for future higher education can be
described as gravitation centers of organizational
development: (1) the future skill university
scenario, (2) the networked mulit-institutional
study scenario, (3) the my-university scenario, (4)
the lifelong higher learning scenario.
Three out of four scenarios score with a time of
adoption of more than 10 years from today with the
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Future Skills – The Future of Learning and Higher Education
International Delphi Survey
majority experts. Only the lifelong higher learning
scenario scored for a time for adoption within the
next 5 years with the majority of experts.
1 - The ‘future skill’ university: The ‘future skill’
scenario suggests that higher education institutions
would leave the current model that focusses on
knowledge acquisition. Instead, new profiles
would be developed that emphasize graduates’
future skill development. In this scenario, HE
would mainly be organized around one key
objective: to enable the development of graduates’
future skills, i.e. complex problem solving, dealing
with uncertainty or developing a sense of
responsibility, etc. This would not replace but go
beyond the current emphasis of knowledge
acquisition and studying based on defined curricula
for fixed professions.
2 - The networked, university: This scenario views
higher education as a networked study experience.
It will not be down to a single institution providing
a student with a certain program, but that this role
would be split among multiple institutions. This
means that ‘digital import’ and ‘digital export’ of
parts of the curriculum would play a significant
role. The standard HE study structure and
experience would shift from a “one-institution”
model to a “multi-institutional” model.
3 - The “My-University” scenario: This scenario
describes HEIs as spaces where the elements of
choices enlarge, and students can build their own
curricula based on their personal interests. The
curriculum of academic programs in this scenario
would move from a fully predefined and ‘up-front’
given structure to a more flexible, personalized and
participatory model in which students actively
cooperate with professors/ teachers/ advisors in
curriculum building of HE programs.
4 - The lifelong higher learning scenario: In this
scenario, seamless lifelong higher learning would
be as important as initial higher education.
Learners in the workplace would be the main type
of student, choosing their portfolio of modules
according to their personal skill needs and
competence demands with high autonomy
throughout their lifetime. Institutions thus would
offer micro-credentials, which students assemble
individually based on their own interests.
Recognition of prior study achievements and
practical experience would enable permeable
shifting between different providers, which offer to
bundle prior learning experience into larger
certifications.
V. Recommendations for leaders
Throughout the Delphi, survey the international
expert panel was asked to comment on the
strategies needed to change higher education.
Leadership has been marked as crucial. A list of
nine recommendations has been collected, which
ranges from culture change within higher education
institutions to communication, collaboration
alliances, resource management and creating
digital awareness.
