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Convergencia en el esfuerzo inversor en I+D+i de las regiones españolas

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An increase in the size (scale) of an economy increases the total quantity of rents that can be captured by successful innovators, which, in equilibrium, should lead to a rise in innovative activity. Conventional wisdom and the theoretical predictions of models of endogenous innovation suggest that this increased research effort should lead to more rapid growth. As noted by Charles Jones, this prediction is at odds with the post-war experience of the OECD, where the growth of the market has indeed led to an increased R&D effort that, however, has been translated into stagnant or declining growth rates. Drawing on the remarkable insights of the museum curator Seabury C. Gilfillan, this paper modifies models of endogenous innovation to allow for the possibility that a rise in the profitability of innovative activity could lead to an increased variety of differentiated solutions to similar problems. An increased variety of technologies (e.g., an increase in the number and types of contraceptives) will increase the level of utility of the average consumer. If, however, continued improvement of this increased variety of technologies requires increased research input, a rise in the scale of the market could raise the equilibrium quantity of R&D without increasing the economy's growth rate.
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Traditional growth theory emphasizes the incentives for capital accumulation rather than technological progress. Innovation is treated as an exogenous process or a by-product of investment in machinery and equipment. Grossman and Helpman develop a unique approach in which innovation is viewed as a deliberate outgrowth of investments in industrial research by forward-looking, profit-seeking agents.
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In this paper we analyze the evidence from a large number of studies on three specific questions pertaining to R&D investment: (1) Are there diminishing returns to inventive activities? (2) What is the relationship between R&D and productivity and what are the magnitudes of the returns to a firm's or industry's R&D investment? (3) What are the magnitudes of the benefits from R&D undertaken by other firms, industries and countries and the vehicles by which they are transmitted to the recipients? The evidence on the first issue is still controversial, basically because of the lack of an adequate measure of output and precise measurement of the inputs to the inventive process. Patent counts are often considered as a measure of output while expenditures on R&D are used as a measure of input in this process. If proper adjustments are made and the significant spillover effects of R&D documented in this paper are taken into account, the possibility of diminishing returns to inventive activities seems implausible. On the second question, the results clearly suggest a positive and strong relationship between R&D expenditures and growth of output or total factor productivity. The relation is pervasive, though the magnitudes of the contribution of R&D vary among firms, industries and countries. On the average, net rates of return on own R&D are about 20% to 30%. There is no clear cut evidence of decline in the potency of R&D investment in the late 1970s. However, there is evidence that R&D as a factor of production affects not only productivity growth but also the demand for conventional inputs and is influenced by changes in input prices and the level of demand. The evidence points to sizable R&D spillover effects both at the firm and industry levels; the social rates of return of R&D often vary from 20% to over 100% in various industry, with an average somewhere close to 50%. The channels of diffusion of the spillovers vary considerably and their effects on productivity growth are sizable. These results suggest a substantial underinvestment in R&D activities. International technology trade among the OECD countries has increased substantially in recent years. The diffusion of new technologies has been very rapid; the channels of transmissions have been exports, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises' research operations, the latter being the most dynamic agents of technology transfer. With the further globalization of business activities, international technology transfers will be a major source of new R&D spillovers.
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Keller (1998) reexamines Coe and Helpman`s (1995) analysis of international R&D spillovers focusing on the weights used to define the foreign R&D capital stock. Keller creates random weights and shows that they give rise to positive estimates of international R&D spillovers, casting doubts on the robustness of Coe and Helpman`s findings. We show that Keller`s random weights are essentially simple averages with a random error. We derive alternative random weights and present regressions showing that when they are used to define the foreign R&D capital stock, the estimated international R&D spillover estimates are nonexistent, as would be expected.
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This paper presents estimates of the long-term impact of various sources of knowledge (R&D performed by the business sector, the public sector and foreign firms) on multifactor productivity growth of 16 countries from 1980 to 1998. The main results show that the three sources of knowledge are significant determinants of long-term productivity growth. Further evidence suggests that several factors determine the extent to which each source of knowledge contributes to productivity growth. These factors are the absorptive capability, the origin of funding, the socioeconomic objectives of government support, and the type of public institutions that perform R&D. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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In this paper, I analyze recent findings by Coe and Helpman (1995) on trade-related international R+D spillovers. A Monte-Carlo-based robustness test is proposed which compares the elasticity of domestic productivity with respect to foreign R+D estimated by Coe and Helpman with an elasticity which is based on counterfactual international trade patterns. It is shown that also these, randomly created trade patterns give rise to positive international R+D spillover estimates, which are often larger, and explain more of the variation in productivity across countries than if 'true' bilateral trade patterns are employed. The finding casts doubt on the claim that patterns of international trade are important in driving R+D spillovers.
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In this paper the significance of capital goods trade as conduit for R&D spillovers is investigated and the impact of international R&D spillovers on OECD countries is quantitatively assessed. Capital goods trade is tested against non-capital goods trade, and knowledge embodied in trade flows is evaluated vis-a-vis R&D spillovers in disembodied form. Our estimation indicates that about half of the return on R&D investment in a G7 country spilled over to other OECD countries. Trade in capital goods was found to be a significant channel of R&D spillovers, although the majority of the R&D spillovers in the OECD were transmitted through other channels.
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A model of endogenous growth is developed in which growth is driven by vertical innovations that involve creative destruction. Equilibrium is determined by a forward-looking difference equation, according to which the amount of research in any period depends negatively upon the amount expected next period. The paper analyzes positive and normative properties of stationary equilibria, and shows conditions for the existence of cyclical equilibria and no-growth traps. The growth rate may be more or less than optimal because a business-stealing effect counteracts the usual spillover and appropriability effects. In addition, innovations tend to be too small. Copyright 1992 by The Econometric Society.
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Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effects of this uncertainty, a stochastic dynamic growth model with the public sector is examined. It is shown that deterministic excessive red tape and corruption deteriorate the growth potential through income redistribution and public sector inefficiencies. Most importantly, it is demonstrated that the increase in corruption via higher uncertainty exerts adverse effects on capital accumulation, thus leading to lower growth rates.
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This paper contains a selective survey of the empirical literature on growth and convergence. After reviewing some stylized facts and developing a framework for empirical analysis, I focus on recent contributions based on various extensions of the neoclassical growth model. I summarize the main results of this literature, examine their implications, and discuss some of the questions which are left open by existing work.
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Many writers have claimed that R&D has two 'faces'. In addition to the conventional role of stimulating innovation, R&D enhances technology transfer by improving the ability of firms to learn about advances in the leading edge ('absorptive capacity'). In this paper we document that there has been convergence of TFP within a panel of industries across thirteen OECD countries since 1970. Furthermore, we find evidence that both R&D and human capital appear statistically and economically important in this catch up process as well as stimulating innovation directly. Trade, by contrast, plays a more modest role in productivity growth.
Article
Corruption in the public sector erodes tax compliance and leads to higher tax evasion. Moreover, corrupt public officials abuse their public power to extort bribes from the private agents. In both types of interaction with the public sector, the private agents are bound to face uncertainty with respect to their disposable incomes. To analyse effects of this uncertainty, a stochastic dynamic growth model with the public sector is examined. It is shown that deterministic excessive red tape and corruption deteriorate the growth potential through income redistribution and public sector inefficiencies. Most importantly, it is demonstrated that the increase in corruption via higher uncertainty exerts adverse effects on capital accumulation, thus leading to lower growth rates.