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The Effect of ICT on Economic Growth in Nigeria
Henry Chima Ukwuoma
National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria
Abstract
Economic drivers of most developed and developing nations are believed to be anchored on their population growth, GDP
per capita, inflation rate and most importantly ICT. This study examines these drivers for the Nigerian economy using
secondary data obtained from World Bank and subjecting the data to Regression. Data gathered ranged from 2008 to 2018
and SPSS used for analysis using Regression as the test tool. The result reflects that increased inflation, population and
GDP per capita have negative effects on the number of Internet Users thereby affecting the economic growth of the country.
The study proffers recommendations that the Federal Government of Nigeria can adopt to enhance ICT in Nigeria for its
economic growth which include enhanced funding and the development of an ICT masterplan for the Nigerian State.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Information and Communication Technology, Population Growth, Information and Communication
Technology Index, Inflation, Gross Capital Product.
1.1 Introduction
Information Communication Technologies (ICT) can be described as an electronic means of capturing,
processing, storing and communicating information. ICT may be computer hardware, software,
networks and includes intermediate technologies like radio and television, literate technologies like
books and newspapers and organic technologies based on human body like brain and sound waves
(Heeks, 2002). In addition, ICT could be referred to as Information Technology (IT) that lays emphasis
on the function of the role of unified communications and the harmonization telecommunications,
which include computers telephone lines and wireless signals, as well as necessary applications
software, storage, and audio-visual systems, which enable users to process information (Wallet, 2015).
Studies carried out, and still ongoing suggest that innovation and technology are the main indicators
of improved economic growth realization in developed countries (Villa, 2005) and there is a
relationship between productivity growth and technological progress (Alani, 2012)
The significance of ICTs in economic growth and development resulted from the fast growth of these
technologies and their market in the nineties. The world’s developed and developing countries started
immensely to harness ICT for economic growth and sustainable development (Hodrab et al., 2016).
Recently, ICT is believed to foster sustainable long-term growth as a production technology through
carefully designed ICT systems (Alani, 2012). The principal function of ICT is in enabling humans,
governments and organizations to transform information into knowledge as a strong driver in evolving
lasting change in the economy and society (Kim, 2013; Lyon, 2013).
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The role of ICT in economic growth has a critical place in economic research; although ICT has
become an active area for investment because of its dwindling cost of services and equipment most
especially with the innovation of cloud computing and the investment into ICT which includes
computers and their peripherals, software, and telecommunications devices. (Hodrab et. al., 2016).
Countries which comprise of the private and public-sector investors have invested in ICTs to improve
their performance and to gain other benefits of ICTs thereby creating more jobs and information space
for their citizens. It is pertinent to note that Worldwide ICT spending is expected to exceed $5.6T in
2021(IDC, 2018) and the amount of money spent on Information and Communication Technology
Research and Development (R&D) in the United States is expected to reach 126 billion U.S. dollars
and that of other countries (Germany, Russia, China, India etc.) cumulatively is expected to reach 228
billion US dollars (Statista, 2018). The amount expended in the sector, reflects the fact that the ICT
sector contributes to an economy by creating job opportunities where this sector leads to create new
job positions in the ICT production sector or ICT providing services. In Nigeria, for example ICT
sector has created thousands of jobs directly and indirectly. The Director-General of NITDA, Dr. Isa
Ibrahim categorically stated that Nigeria has been spending $2.8Billion annually for the importation
of various ICT products and services (Vanguard, 2016).
A survey carried out by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU, 2016) states that Nigeria
has high population density and the sector of wires and wireless communication is considered as the
main sector that creates job positions especially the mobile phone sector. Furthermore, in September,
2018, a survey carried out by the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC) revealed that the
contribution of the Telecoms Industry to GDP was rated 7.7% in 2012 as against 10.43% in the second
quarter of 2018 (NCC, 2018). This shows a relatively contribution of the telecoms industry to GDP
resulting to economic growth. Furthermore, the Executive Vice Chairman of NCC, Prof Umar
Dambatta of Nigeria revealed that the ICT sector contributed N500 billion to the Nigerian economy in
2014 and created about 2.5 million jobs in 10 years and attracted $30 billion foreign investment
between 2003 to 2014 (Vanguard, 2016). The revolution of ICT in developing countries is expanding
and spreading giving the hope for these countries to achieve technological advances that contribute in
advancing and developing their economies (Zwass, 2003). Nigeria not being an exception has
benefitted from ICT in the areas of banking, fight against terrorism, e-governance and human resource
development. Nigeria being a developing country is in need of radical change in governance and this
can only be achieved by reengineering existing governance processes with the help of ICT. The uses
of ICT can lead the nation to overall economic growth/development.
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1.2 Aim and Objective of the Study
Evaluating the effect of ICT on the economy of a country as a whole is critical and associated with
complex factors. This study examines the role of ICT in enhancing growth in Nigeria by evaluating
the number of internet users in the country as a factor of population, GDP per capita and the inflation
rate.
1.3 Significance of the study
World leading powers have shown yearly increase on the amount of money spent on ICT because these
world powers have realized the role ICT plays in stablising and promoting their economies and this
role reflected on the GDP in such countries. Nigeria exited from recession but Nigeria is still under
abject poverty, threat and the large population of its youth not employed (Thisday, 2017). The
increasing number of internet users should provide an avenue for Nigeria to adopt/provide ICT services
that enhance communication with other countries. This study will present the effect of ICT on
economic growth of the Nigerian economy considering that Nigeria is a developing country despite its
various challenges.
1.4 Literature Review
Hodrab et al. (2016) examined how the drivers of economic growth can be categorized under the
following; Information and communication technology (ICT), population growth, gross capital
formation, openness and inflation in developing countries and used Arab countries as a case study.
They examined within the scope of 1995-2013 the effect of the suggested factors on the economic
growth of Arab 18 (eighteen) nations with the effect was tested using Econometric analysis. The
research revealed an outcome which suggested that ICT and other suggested factors affect the 18 Arab
nations’ economic growth. Although, inflation had a negative effect on economic growth for 18 Arab
nations.
Oladimeji and Folayan (2018), reviewed the growth benefits that the ICT sector has provided and its
impact on the Nigerian economy and postulated that the growth rate as an apparatus to the progression
of economies of emerging countries like Nigeria in the 21st century. ICT and ICT related facilities aid
in the development of markets, decrease in transaction costs and increased productivity and
management in both public and private sectors of the Nigeria economy. They postulated the numerous
impacts of ICT in the four major sectors of the Nigerian economy, suggesting the prospects of the
wireless technology platform in fostering economic and social impact for the populace.
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Albiman (2016), reviewed long run effect of ICT on economic growth in the Sub-Saharan African
(SSA) region. The analysis of the impact of ICTs use was assessed for a 27-year period (1990-2014),
before the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) era (1990-1999) and during the MDGs era (2000-
2014). The nonlinear effect of ICT in the economic growth and their threshold values were also
examined. The research showed that mobile phone and internet were found to have triggered economic
growth. the results indicated that, except for financial development, human capital, institutional quality
and domestic investment were the main growth enhancing transmission channels of ICTs use in the
economy.
Oloruntoyin and Adeyanju (2013), postulated that Information and Communication Technology (ICT)
is a tool that is capable of enforcing sustainable economic and social development in the society. They
further stated that the resultant effect of ICT adoption can be seen in various sector in Nigeria. Such
sectors include, e-banking, telemedicine, e-learning, tele-commuting, the use of ICT enhances the
possibilities of developing countries to improve the standard of living thus promoting media networks,
security, medical practitioners, governance, safety, agriculture producers, research institutions,
financial organizations, and small business enterprises. They suggested possible ways to achieve ICT
growth in Nigeria which include Human Resource Development, infrastructure development,
Research and Development and Electronic Government.
Jakhar (2015), postulated that the Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) play a major
role in economic growth and economic development of India. He examined and analyzed how ICT
has driven economic growth of India. More so, secondary data was to draw conclusion on data sourced
collected from numerous statistical report and government websites. Findings showed an assessment
of sectors of the IT industry and the and its effect on the economy.
Isizoh et al. (2013), reviewed the notion of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and its
effects on the Nigerian economy. They further postulated with focus on the pros and cons of ICT in
economic advancement as well as recommendations geared towards harnessing ICT for the overall
development of the socioeconomic and political status of Nigeria. Their study revealed that for Nigeria
to be socially, politically and economically competitive, Nigeria has to adopt ICT in areas of politics,
health, business, education, poverty reduction and national security. They further postulated that
Nigeria direct its focus on positive development, implementation and access of ICT to its populace.
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Oju and Onyebuka (2016), investigated the major roles that ICT can contribute in enhancing the
economies of rural areas in emerging countries, with its main focus on rural areas. They further
postulated that in the last ten years, because of the quick spread of mobile phones, ICT has had a great
impact on the economic development by enhancing the business activities of rural areas. ICT has
provided access to information for the market men and women with financial services at the doorsteps
of rural consumers and helped in the exchange of business know-how and thereby linking themselves.
They also proffered practicable solutions in the disparity between the drivers of technology and the
inherent beneficiaries in rural areas of developing countries and also the opportunities generated as a
result of convergence of ICTs. Their study revealed that the provision of a less expansion and efficient
tools for providing cheap and efficient tools for access to information and exchange of ideas and
knowledge will serve as an enhancement tool for greater socioeconomic improvement and ICT could
assist in knowledge sharing and information exchange.
Nirmala et al. (2012), stated that because of the slow developments in Africa, the continent has been
hit by disease and poverty which has resulted to the current quality of cultural, social and political lives
of inhabitants of the African continent. Although, they stated that with the coming of ICT, a new path
for growth and development has been created, which comes with its pros and cons and its effects on
social, cultural and political change. They researched on Africa with Eritrea in focus and the role of
Internet in enhancing social change. Findings from their study revealed that Africa is still on the
pipeline of achieving a superhighway technology and the need for creating tele-centers for Africa’s
goods and services to enhance economic development. The also postulated th e urgent need for western
powers to halt manipulating Africa as a continent that should surrender to western models of
development.
1.4 Challenges of ICT in Nigeria
ICT which is the economic driver for most developed economy has been identified as the key player
in economic/sustainable growth. The following are the challenges of ICT in Nigeria.
a. Inadequate ICT policy enforcing the use/adoption of ICT driven services- there are no adequate
rules in place to ensure the safe use/adoption of ICT services in the Nigerian State, while sectors
like the banking sector fully adopt ICT in the execution of its services, other sectors are yet to
fully adopt the use of ICT services in its service e.g. education and tourism sectors.
b. High Cost of ICTs Equipment in Nigeria- the exorbitant cost of ICT equipment in Nigeria is a
major challenge of ICT growth in Nigeria. The Federal Government of Nigeria(FGN) should
has not adequately protected the ICT sector through price control and the ensuring the
standardization of important ICT goods/services.
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c. Inadequate funding of the ICT sector- According to ITU (2018), the amount of money been
spent on ICT (Research and Development) in Nigeria is on the low side, therefore for the
pursuance of economic growth through ICT, the FGN needs to urgently increase the amount
spent on ICT to foster economic growth.
d. Low ICT Literacy Level and Lack of trained ICT Personnel- The low ICT literacy level of
personnel in the country has slowed down economic growth, FGN needs to introduce the
practical use of ICT services in Nigeria by establishing ICT internet driven centers with trained
Personnel in every state of the Federation and the practical use of ICT in primary to tertiary
institutions. This will encourage persons who cannot afford internet services the opportunity
to enhance his/her skills in such area.
e. User Acceptance- since people have not been enlightened on the need to drive ICT with
services, they find it difficult to accept ICT because of the fear of losing their jobs, so they
frustrate whatever services that ICT can drive.
f. Inadequate synergy between Nigeria and other ICT driven developed Nations on the
transfer/adoption of ICT knowledge to Nigeria- there is no cooperation between Nigeria and
other ICT developed economies, this has led to poor transfer of ICT knowledge, without this
transfer of ideas, Nigeria cannot enhance her ICT skills/knowledge.
1.5 Materials and Methods
The study adopts SPSS version 24 to analyse the indicators (sourced from World bank) of the Nigerian
economy which include GDP, GDP per capital, inflation rate, internet users, population, and thereafter
draw recommendation from the findings of the study.
1.5.1 Indicators of the Nigerian Economy
The indicators of the Nigerian economy from the year 2007 to the year 2017 will enable this study to
ascertain the role ICT has played in the enhancement of economic growth in Nigeria. The study will
ascertain if the progression or retrogression of ICT will enhance economic growth. This will be
achieved by running a Regression analysis on the economic indicators below.
1.5.2 Regression
The study adopts regression for estimating the relationship between data source form the World bank,
more so regression analysis is a group of statistical procedures used for estimating the relationships
among variables used for predictions and forecasting. The table below presents data sourced on the
indicators of the Nigerian economy.
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Table 1: ICT goods export (percentage of total goods export)
Year China United Kingdom United States South Africa Nigeria
2016 27.709 5.843 10.616 1.088 0.002
2015 29.651 3.423 10.708 1.257 0.01
2014 29.125 5.782 10.555 1.198 0.005
2013 26.76 4.667 9.509 1.01 0.017
2012 27.056 4.236 9.032 1.18 0.004
2011 27.422 3.823 8.877 1.217 0.012
2010 25.939 4.162 8.966 1.59 0.02
2009 26.563 4.101 9.439 1.435 NA
2008 26.493 4.502 9.663 1.396 NA
Source: UN, 2018
The table 1 above depicts the ICT goods export as a percentage of total goods export. There is a clear
indication that Nigeria’s ICT export for ICT has been dwindling since 2010 as compared to other
developed countries represented in table 1. This has had a significant effect on the Nigeria economy.
Table 2: Indicators of Economic Growth in Nigeria
Year GDP (Billion USD) GDP per capita (%) Inflation (%) Population(million) Internet users (million)
2017 375.8 0.8 16.5 190.89 NA
2016 404.7 -1.6 15.7 185.99 25.67
2015 481.1 2.7 9.0 181.18 24.5
2014 568.5 6.3 8.1 176.46 21.0
2013 515 5.4 8.5 171.83 19.1
2012 461 4.3 12.2 167.3 16.1
2011 411.1 6.7 10.8 162.88 13.8
2010 369.1 7.8 13.7 158.58 11.5
2009 169.5 7.0 11.0 154.4 9.3
2008 208.1 6.3 11.6 150.35 8.0
2007 166.5 6.8 5.4 146.42 6.77
Source: World Bank, 2018
The table 2 shows Nigeria’s GDP, GDP per capita, Inflation rate (%), population and internet users
between 2007 and 2017. There is a clear indication that the number of internet Users have increased,
which implies that ICT services can be deployed to drive activities in the country, although it should
be noted that as of 2017, the number of internet users does not reflect up-to 20% of the country’s
population. There was a sharp increase on the inflation rate from the year 2015, which implies
increased cost of goods and services. In 2017, the GDP per capita increased significantly which,
implies a growth on the economy
The table below shows regression analysis of variables in table 2
Table 3: Model Summary
Model Summary
Model
R
R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 .760a .578 .366 24337544.500
a. Predictors: (Constant), Population, Inflation, GDP
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The Model Summary table above depicts the values of the R, R2, adjusted R2 and the standard error of
the estimate, the above values can be used to determine how well a regression model fits the data.
More so, the "R" column signifies multiple correlation coefficient. The value of R can be reflected
as one measure of the quality of the prediction of the dependent variable (Population), in this case a
value of 0.760, which implies a good level of prediction.
The "R Square" column depicts the R2 value (coefficient of determination), which is the proportion
of variance in the dependent variable that can be explained by the independent variables. One can see
from our value of 0.578 that our independent variables explain 57.8% of the variability of our
dependent variable, Population.
Table 4: ANOVA Table
ANOVAa
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 4859360775000000.000 31619786925000000.000 2.735 .136
b
Residual 3553896435000000.000 6592316072500000.000
Total 8413257210000000.000 9
a. Dependent Variable: Internet-Users
b. Predictors: (Constant), Population, Inflation, GDP per capita
The ANOVA table presents values that can be used to ascertain the relationship between the dependent
and independent variables. The F-ratio in the ANOVA table 3 tests whether the overall regression
model is a good fit for the data. The table shows that the independent variables statistically significantly
predict the dependent variable, F (3, 6) = 2.735, p > .0005 (i.e., the regression model is a good fit of
the data).
Table 5 Coefficients Table
Coefficients
Model
Unstandardized Coefficients
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig. B Std. Error Beta
1 (Constant) 511870187.600 183342836.200 2.792 .031
Inflation -2053674.917 3064244.187 -.200 -.670 .528
GDP per capita -7213427.284 4824454.067 -.661 -1.495 .185
Population -2.510 .944 -1.095 -2.660 .038
a. Dependent Variable: Internet-Users
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Estimated model coefficients
The general form of the equation to predict Internet-Users from Population, Inflation, GDP per capita
is:
predicted Internet-Users = 511870187.600 - (2053674.917 x Inflation) - (7213427.284 x GDP)
This is extracted from the Coefficients table, as shown above. Also, the "Sig." column shows that all
independent variable coefficients are statistically significantly different from 0 (zero) excluding
Population.
1.6 Findings
Findings from the regression showed that Unstandardized coefficients signify how much the dependent
variable varies with an independent variable when all other independent variables are held constant.
For the effect of inflation, the unstandardized coefficient, B1, for Inflation is equal to -2053674.917.
This means that for each one-year increase in inflation, there is a decrease in “Internet users” by
2053674.917.
For the effect of GDP, the unstandardized coefficient, B1, for Inflation is equal to -7213427.284. This
means that for each one-year increase in GDP, there is a decrease in “Internet users” by 7213427.284.
For the effect of Population, the unstandardized coefficient, B1, for population is equal to -2.510. This
means that for each one-year increase in population, there is a decrease in “Internet users” by 2.510
Nigeria is ranked 157 in the Human Development Index rating in the world, findings showed that with
a population of 190 million, only an estimated 25.67 million people do have access to the worldwide
network (UNDP, 2018). Nigeria still has a lot to do to stand out in the rankings by the United Nations
to promote her Human Development Index (HDI), ICT which has helped countries like China, USA
and India can also be replicated in Nigeria to promote her economic growth thereby increasing its
world ranking on HDI. Also, the number of internet users increase with increasing population and
decreasing cost of ICT infrastructure, which implies that in the years to come ICT will provide
sufficient jobs and services to drive the Nigerian economy.
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1.7 Recommendation
ICT in Nigeria has had a slow growth, as a result this study proffers the following recommendations
in order meet other ICT driven developed economies.
1. The FGN should allocate more funds for the realization of an ICT driven Nigeria.
2. The provision of cheaper Internet facility can be achieved with the collaboration with the
private sector (Telecommunication Companies)
3. Development of a knowledge base with developed ICT driven economies, thus the promotion
of indigenous ICT products and services which can be exported to other countries.
4. Develop an ICT masterplan for Nigeria
5. Training and retraining of Staff of the ICT Regulation Agencies
6. Encourage youth to go into ICT by creating an enabling environment.
7. Research on ICT driven economy with the collaboration of the Academics.
8. The application of ICT services in all sectors of the country thus promoting transparency and
accountability
9. Awareness/Provision of ICT services in rural areas.
1.8 Conclusion
Information and communication technology (ICT) activities are necessary elements of any
development activity in this present age. The study reviewed the role of ICT has played in Economic
Growth and used SPSS as a statistical tool and Regression as an analytical tool for the secondary data
sourced from the world bank to predict the effect of Population, Inflation and GDP per capita on the
number of internet users in Nigeria. It was gathered that increasing inflation affects the number internet
users and a reduction in GDP per capita also affects the number internet users.
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