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Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect
Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
1876-6102 © 2017The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling
Assessing the feasibility of using the heat demand-outdoor
temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast
I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc
aIN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research -Instituto Superior Técnico,Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
bVeolia Recherche & Innovation,291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France
cDépartement Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement -IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France
Abstract
District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the
greenhouse gas emissions from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat
sales. Due to the changed climate conditions and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease,
prolonging the investment return period.
The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand –outdoor temperature function for heat demand
forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665
buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors.
The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications
(the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation
scenarios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered).
The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the
decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and
renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function intercept increased for 7.8-12.7% per decade (depending on the
coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
Cooling.
Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change
Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 297–301
1876-6102 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of ICAE2018 – The 10th International Conference on Applied Energy.
10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.092
10.1016/j.egypro.2019.01.092
© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientic committee of ICAE2018 – The 10th International Conference on Applied Energy.
1876-6102
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect
Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
1876-6102 Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 10th International Conference on Applied Energy (IC AE2018).
10th International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE2018), 22-25 August 2018, Hong Kong,
China
The governance for offshore wind in Japan
Aitong Lia,*, Yuan Xua
aDepartment of Geography and Resource Management & Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong
Kong, Hong Kong, China
Abstract
Effective governance is crucial for developing various renewable energies, especially in their early stages. After the spectacular
growth of onshore wind in the past decade, offshore wind is attracting an increasing amount of attention globally. As an
archipelago and facing electricity shortage after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan has been accelerating its pace of
developing offshore wind. However, the Japanese government encounters the challenge of adapting its old institution to the new
governance demand. This research analyzes the evolution of offshore wind policies and evaluates the progress of inter-ministerial
collaboration in Japan. It is found that from the initial potential surveys to the final setting of offshore wind feed-in tariff, the
relations between relevant agencies were more characterized by inter-ministerial competitions than collaborations. The deeply
rooted traditional sectionalism continues to affect the development of offshore wind and may slow down the progress of energy
transition in Japan.
Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 10th International Conference on Applied
Energy (ICAE2018).
Keywords: offshore wind; inter-ministerial coordination; regulation simplification; institutional reform
1. Introduction
The past decade has witnessed a dramatic growth of renewable energy with wind and solar energy taking a much
greater share in the energy mix. Although offshore wind energy has been estimated to have a large resource base, its
significantly higher costs relative to onshore wind and solar energy have become a key barrier to its development
globally. In 2017, for example, the levelized costs of electricity was $10/MWh for solar, $6/MWh for onshore wind
but $14/MWh for offshore wind [1]. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, Japan has been facing electricity
shortage due to its closure of nuclear power plants, which pushed the country to rapidly ramp up renewable energy
for meeting the shortfall. Japan has a long seashore and is rich in offshore wind energy resources, but the
development is slow with only 61.6 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2016 (Table 1). In comparison, Japan had
42,750 GW of solar PV and 3,280 MW of wind [2].
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect
Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
1876-6102 Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 10th International Conference on Applied Energy (IC AE2018).
10th International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE2018), 22-25 August 2018, Hong Kong,
China
The governance for offshore wind in Japan
Aitong Lia,*, Yuan Xua
aDepartment of Geography and Resource Management & Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong
Kong, Hong Kong, China
Abstract
Effective governance is crucial for developing various renewable energies, especially in their early stages. After the spectacular
growth of onshore wind in the past decade, offshore wind is attracting an increasing amount of attention globally. As an
archipelago and facing electricity shortage after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan has been accelerating its pace of
developing offshore wind. However, the Japanese government encounters the challenge of adapting its old institution to the new
governance demand. This research analyzes the evolution of offshore wind policies and evaluates the progress of inter-ministerial
collaboration in Japan. It is found that from the initial potential surveys to the final setting of offshore wind feed-in tariff, the
relations between relevant agencies were more characterized by inter-ministerial competitions than collaborations. The deeply
rooted traditional sectionalism continues to affect the development of offshore wind and may slow down the progress of energy
transition in Japan.
Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 10th International Conference on Applied
Energy (ICAE2018).
Keywords: offshore wind; inter-ministerial coordination; regulation simplification; institutional reform
1. Introduction
The past decade has witnessed a dramatic growth of renewable energy with wind and solar energy taking a much
greater share in the energy mix. Although offshore wind energy has been estimated to have a large resource base, its
significantly higher costs relative to onshore wind and solar energy have become a key barrier to its development
globally. In 2017, for example, the levelized costs of electricity was $10/MWh for solar, $6/MWh for onshore wind
but $14/MWh for offshore wind [1]. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, Japan has been facing electricity
shortage due to its closure of nuclear power plants, which pushed the country to rapidly ramp up renewable energy
for meeting the shortfall. Japan has a long seashore and is rich in offshore wind energy resources, but the
development is slow with only 61.6 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2016 (Table 1). In comparison, Japan had
42,750 GW of solar PV and 3,280 MW of wind [2].
298 Aitong Li et al. / Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 297–301
2 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
Offshore wind energy development must coordinate with multiple preexisting ocean users to gain access to
suitable sites. Those preexisting uses include commercial and creational fisheries, ecological conservation,
aquaculture, shipping, and submarine communications cables, which are regulated under various ministries and
institutions. Therefore, the inter-ministerial coordination is essential for opening up new space for offshore wind.
The coordination task is, however, rather challenging to the Japanese government. That is because its governance
system has long been characterized by sectionalism, which can trace its roots to the American post-war occupation
of Japan[3]. The policymaking process is mainly controlled not by politicians but by bureaucrats, who are divided
into distinct groups not only by ministries but also by bureaus and divisions. Despite the existence of many inter-
ministerial personnel exchange programs, the career of bureaucrats is mainly defined by serving in a single ministry,
and they tend to prioritize their ministerial interests over national interests[3]. Getting used to issue-specific,
piecemeal modifications, bureaucrats are not familiar with the design of a big policy framework from a holistic
perspective[4]. Given these characteristics of Japanese administrative system, this article aims to examine its
governance structure for offshore wind energy with a special focus on the roles of several key ministries as well as
their collaboration and competition.
Table 1. Offshore wind projects in operation in Japan by 2016[5]
ID
Prefecture
Installed capacity (MW)
Category of sea areas
1
Hokkaido
1.2
Port area
2
Yamagata
10
Port area
3
Fukushima
14
General sea area
4
Ibaraki
14
Port area
5
Ibaraki
16
Port area
6
Chiba
2.4
General sea area
7
Fukuoka
2
Port area
8
Nagasaki
2
General sea
Total
61.6
2. Sectionalism and inter-ministerial coordination in Japan
The governance for offshore wind energy involves several ministries at the central level, including the Ministry of
Environment (ME), Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport
and Tourism (MILT), and Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF). Climate change and
environmental protection fall into the responsibilities of ME, which regards offshore wind energy development as
one of the important means to control greenhouse gases emissions. METI takes care of economic and industrial
development together with the making of major policies for supporting the wind industry. MILT plays a critical role
in the siting of offshore wind farms due to their use of the ocean. The potential impacts of offshore wind farms on
fishery resources pulls MAFF into the governance network.
2.1. Offshore wind resource surveys and mapping
Before the development of offshore wind, several rounds of national surveys had been carried out by different
ministries and institutions. The earliest survey was organized in 2000 by METI under the Basic Survey for
Promoting the Adoption of New Energy, estimating the potential for offshore wind (the fixed type) to be 40.4 GW
[6]. This was then replaced by more detailed surveys. In 2010, both METI and ME completed detailed offshore
wind surveys by hiring different expert teams.
The surveys by METI and ME, notably, were conducted independently from each other. The two surveys not
only gave different estimates of wind energy potentials, but, more interestingly, disagreed with one another on the
impacts of social constrains (e.g. Common Fishing Rights System) on offshore wind. In the ME’s Survey Report on
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Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3
Renewable Energy Potential (2010), estimations from four scenarios revealed that social constrains on offshore
wind were almost negligible. The maximum overlaps between potential offshore wind sites and the areas of
Common Fishing Rights, maritime transportation routes, and self-defense force training grounds were estimated to
be 4.4% [7]. In contrast, the report from METI published—the Basic Survey for Promoting the Adoption of New
Energy (2010)—claimed that Fishing Rights System would affect up to 50%~80% of the potential capacity of
offshore wind depending on wind-speed ranges and turbine types [8].
The different evaluations of social constrains by ME and METI to some extent reflected their diverging stances
on offshore wind before the occurrence of the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011. The ME’s offshore wind survey
was initiated by its subdivision—Climate Change Policy Division. This division, focusing on climate mitigation
policies, is an ardent supporter of offshore wind, because the development of renewable energy fits its agenda of
reducing carbon emission. This policy inclination towards offshore wind partially explains its tendency to
underestimate possible social constrains on offshore wind.
METI, on the other hand, was historically not an active supporter of renewables in general and wind in particular
[9,10]. Before the Fukushima nuclear accident, METI’s energy policy was centered on the development of nuclear
power. In the eyes of METI, the role of offshore wind in the national energy mix was quite marginal. Wanting to
concentrate its efforts on nuclear power, METI might tend to emphasize the difficulty of developing offshore wind
and therefore overestimate the social constrains on offshore wind.
In addition to potential surveys, mapping information is considered indispensable for the development of offshore
wind. Acknowledging the importance of mapping, ME first compiled national map database for renewables
(including offshore wind). Its Programme of Providing Basic Zoning Information Related to Renewable Energy was
initiated in 2011, and annual reports were continuously published from the year 2011 to 2015. The mapping
information available to investors included national park maps, natural reserve maps, fishing rights maps, military
training sites (American military force and self-defense force), and world cultural heritage sites.
However, the leading role of ME in promoting offshore wind mapping was soon replaced by METI. From the
year 2015, NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, a research institute affiliated
to METI) started to prepare its first information website for offshore wind, which aimed to pull together all the
national maps relevant to offshore wind [11]. When NEDO started its programme on integrated map database in
2015, the mapping programme of ME was rendered unnecessary. This subsequently led to the end of the ME’s
programme in the same year. The complete online mapping system designed by NEDO was released in 2017,
providing not only wind-condition simulation maps but also information on ecosystem, ocean topography, port
areas, maritime transportation routes, and historical sites.
2.2. Designating specific areas for offshore wind
Though the updating of map database relevant to offshore wind was critical to the siting of offshore wind farms,
more effective policy approach for promoting offshore wind would be maritime zoning. Delineating specific areas
could help developers save costs of negotiating use rights. The rapid development of offshore wind in Europe could
partially be attributed to the early initiation of marine spatial planning [12].
The ocean space of Japan has already been divided into two big zones under current regulatory system. One zone
is concerned with general sea areas, which is governed by local laws and regulations. That is where Common
Fishing Rights System exists. Local fishermen have the rights to exclude from those areas activities that may
potentially impose risks to their fishing activities. The other zone is concerned with port areas, which have no
Common Fishing Rights Systems and are governed by a single law—the Port and Harbor Law, with the Ministry of
Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) as the regulation authority. It is not difficult to notice that in
comparison, port areas could be the most suitable siting areas for offshore wind. With the absence of fishing rights
and complicated local regulations, the port areas could save investors time and efforts in the process of use-right
negotiation.
Since port areas hold great potential for developing offshore wind, MLIT naturally became one of the most
important ministries for the promotion of offshore wind. Realizing the engagement of MLIT is critical, ME acted
first to initiate the inter-ministerial collaboration. In 2012, ME and MLIT jointly issued the About Offshore Wind at
Port Areas—Manual for Accommodating Offshore Wind in the Port Management. This manual outlines the
300 Aitong Li et al. / Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 297–301
4 Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
procedures that port managers and offshore wind developers should follow to facilitate the smooth planning of
offshore wind farms. The Manual suggests setting up the Port Council for the Introduction of Renewable Energy
which specially focuses on local communication, site selection, and the organization of concession bidding. Here the
port council is expected to serve as a mediator between local residents and project developers. However, the joint
manual only served as guidelines and did not change the status quo of the legal system. After all, except
environmental impact assessment, ME does not play a substantial regulation role in the management of offshore
wind.
More substantial legal changes occurred later. In 2016, MLIT revised the Port and Harbor Law, which allows
offshore wind developers to occupy the designated port areas for 20 years. Thanks to this new law, many projects
are under planning (Table 2). This was followed by a new round of discussion on regulation simplification, in which
the coordination between MLIT and METI has become a pressing issue. Both MLIT and METI have regulation
authority over the construction of electricity generation facilities in the port areas. To simplify the inspection
procedures and further remove regulation barriers for offshore wind, it is important for the two agencies to work
together and set up integrated inspection standards that are easy to follow in practice. To complete this task, the
Investigative Committee on Electricity Generation Facilities at the Port Areas was established in 2017 and
discussions of legal revision are still underway.
Table 2. Planned offshore wind projects in port areas by 2017 [5]
ID
Prefecture
Port location
Installed capacity (MW)
Number of wind turbines
1
Hokkaido
Ishikari Bay New Port
104
26
2
Hokkaido
Wakkanai Port
10
2
3
Aomori
Mutsuogawara Port
80
40
4
Akita
Noshiro Port
100
20
5
Akita
Akita Port
70
14
6
Yamagata
Sakata Port
15
3
7
Ibaraki
Kashima Port (north)
100
20
8
Ibaraki
Kashima Port (south)
125
25
9
Fukuoka
Kitakyushu Port
200
40
Total
804
190
2.3. Feed-in tariff (FIT) for offshore wind
The FIT price was finally set up for offshore wind by METI in 2014, at 36 JPY/kWh for 20 years [13]. METI’s
authority over the setting of FIT prices reveals its leading status in promoting and regulating offshore wind. The
price setting was based on the estimated costs of two experiment projects run by NEDO—one is located in Choshi
city, Chiba Prefecture and the other in Kitakyushu City, Fukuoka Prefecture. According to the official report, for
offshore wind farms with relatively good wind conditions and relatively low infrastructure requirements, the
estimated capital cost was 565 JPY/MW and the operation and maintenance cost was 22.5 JPY/MW/year. To
guarantee a certain level of profits for developers, the FIT price setting allowed a 10% IRR, which was between
onshore wind (8%) and geothermal power (13%) [13]. Even though ME had also conducted one experiment project
with offshore wind, the ME’s project was not included in the cost calculation and therefore did not influence the
price setting.
2.4. Inter-ministerial coordination at the central level
From the year 2014, the Cabinet Secretariat started to organize the inter-ministerial meeting at the central level
for the promotion of offshore wind. By December 2017, a total of four general meetings were carried out, involving
four ministries—METI, ME, MLIT, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF). Those
Aitong Li et al. / Energy Procedia 158 (2019) 297–301 301
Author name / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5
meetings have outlined three important fields for further inter-ministerial coordination: (1) the implementation of
environment impact assessment (EIA), (2) the promotion of offshore wind projects in port areas, and (3) the
regulation of offshore wind in the general sea areas. Under those initiatives, the networks of inter-ministerial
coordination are becoming more and more intertwined. However, policy adjustments in the first two fields
progresses rather slowly, with ME still refining its EIA criteria for offshore wind and METI and MLIT still working
on the integrated regulation of electricity generation facilities in port areas. The third field focusing on the general
sea areas is the most difficult one to tackle. The existence of a large number of stakeholders in the general sea areas
makes inter-ministerial coordination and regulation simplification extremely challenging tasks.
3. Discussion and conclusion
The administrative structure over offshore wind in Japan evolves over time. Under the inter-ministerial
coordination efforts of the Cabinet Secretariat, the networks of inter-ministerial coordination are becoming more
intertwined.
Though ME was initially at the forefront of offshore wind promotion, METI gradually regained its dominant
status in the network by taking back the mapping projects from ME and by designing the FIT system without
consulting ME. Instead of sharing information, data and experiences, ME and METI carried out their projects
independently. Rather than collaborating with one another, the two seemed to be engaged in an implicit institutional
competition. This sectionalism in governance continues to constrain the inter-ministerial collaboration of the
Japanese government, which could not only result in unnecessary waste of institutional resources but also slow
down the pace of offshore wind development.
Furthermore, ME approaches offshore wind from the perspective of climate change mitigation, whereas METI
considers it as part of its industrial strategic planning or economic development in general. These two policy
mindsets, as illustrated in the lack of collaboration between the two ministries, have yet to be integrated although
they could in principle become complementary. The current situation might indicate that the Japanese government
has not developed a systematic consensus around offshore wind or more broadly renewable energy, which adds
uncertainties to the future of its development or overall energy transition.
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