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The views of three sea level specialists: Comments by N.-A. Mörner, T. Wysmuller & A. Parker

The views of three sea level specialists
Comments by N.-A. Mörner, T. Wysmuller & A. Parker
On March 9, 2019, The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) published
their weekly report beginning with review note on “Rising Seas – At Sea, or Shore”
( We found it far too superficial to have
any meaningful message to tell. Instead, we wrote the following comments.
1. Nils-Axel Mörner (190311):
It is sad when those who are NGW-proponents (i.e. opposite to AGW) do not
present adequate analyses – in this case of sea level changes. Let me therefore
summarize a few points with respect to my own views and papers:
It is necessary to understand the coastal dynamics (Mörner, 2017a), thermal
expansion (Mörner, 2017b), and the multiple forces behind coastal erosion
(Mörner & Finkl, 2017) and sea level changes (Mörner, 2017c).
The satellite altimetry records have been “corrected” or rather “manipulated”
(Mörner, 2017d, 2015) – the real values are about +0.55 ±0.1 mm/yr.
The subject of sea level changes includes exaggerations far beyond scientifically
established “frames” (Mörner, 2018a, 2018b).
Global isostatic adjustment must be questioned (Mörner, 2015).
The gauge records must be analysed with care (Mörner & Matlack-Klein, 2017a;
Mörner et al., 2018) as they include so many different forcing components.
In fact, there is nothing we can call “mean global sea level changes” (Mörner &
Newman, 2019; Mörner, 2018c, 2019).
Nowhere do we see any adequate field records of “acceleration”. Many
erroneous records have been revealed (e.g. Mörner et al. 2018; Parker, below).
The sea level changes during the last 500 years are dominated by “rotational
eustasy” (with minute effects from glacial eustasy and thermal effects) as
documented by multiple facts in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific (Mörner &
Matlack-Klein, 2017b; Mörner, 2016a, 2016b, 2017e, 2019).
A summary of sea level changes is presented by Mörner & Newman (2019) – or
To be within the frames of realistic sea level change
or in the pink field of nonsense
Changes in sea level are a hot topic, and frequently addressed in present day media.
The quality of statements is another thing. Doomsday statements of a rapidly rising
sea are not anchored in observational facts, however.
In truly scientific assessments we must always be within the blue field set by the
frames of realistic sea level change (the figure below from Mörner, 2018b).
The science of sea level changes is a complicated issue and calls for deep
knowledge in a number of fields given by the frames in the figure below. The author
notices with sadness that people still think that there are shortcuts in sea level
research, and that even an outsider can contribute with significant material maybe,
they can summarize data, but they can never advance the science of sea level
changes in any meaningful way: rather mess it up.
Fig. 1
The frames change with increased knowledge and observational facts.
All what is said, shown and claimed in this paper lie well within the frames of the blue box.
Very much of what IPCC and its proponents claim lie
well out side the frames of realistic sea level changes
in the pink field of nonsense
Let us reserve “the pink field of nonsense” for the AGW-proponents, who have
created their own frames, where factors like personal ideas, public agenda, modelling
data and personal benefits are included, it seems.
The NGW-proponents must be sure that all what the claim in talking or writing lie
with in the frames of realistic sea level changes. One foot in the pink field, and reality
is gone.
Mörner, N.-A. (2015). Glacial isostasy: regional not global. International Journal of
Geosciences, 6, 577-592.
Mörner, N.-A. (2016a). Sea level changes as observed in nature. In: Evidence-based Climate
Change, Second Revised Edition, D.J. Easterbrook, ed., Chapter 12, p. 219-231. Elsevier.
Mörner, N.-A. (2016b). Coastal morphology and sea level changes in Goa, India, during the
last 500 years. Journal of Coastal Research, 33:2, 421-434.
Mörner, N.-A. (2017a). Coastal dynamics. Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences, C. Finkl & C.
Makowski, eds, Springer.
Mörner, N.-A. (2017b). Thermal expansion. Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences, C. Finkl & C.
Makowski, eds, Springer. DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-48657-4_375-1
Mörner, N.-A. (2017c). Sea Level Changes. Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences, C. Finkl & C.
Makowski, eds, Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-48657-4_66-2
Mörner, N.-A. (2017d). Sea level manipulation. International Journal of Engineering and
Science Invention, 6 (8), 48-51.
Mörner, N.-A. (2017e). Our Oceans Our Future: New evidence-based sea level records
from the Fiji Islands for the last 500 years indicating rotational eustasy and absence of a
present rise in sea level. International Journal of Earth & Environmental Sciences, 2: 137.
Mörner, N.-A. (2018a). Global Sea Level Variations. International Journal of Earth Sciences
and Engineering, 11 (4): 1-4 (invited paper).
Mörner, N.-A. (2018b). The illusive flooding of New York City. Journal of Environmental
Sciences, 1 (2), 1-11.
Mörner, N.-A. (2018c). Absolute evidence of the absence of an on-going sea level rise on
Ouvéa Island of New Caledonia. SSRG-International Journal of Geoinformatics and
Geological Science, 5 (3): 30-33. IJGGS-V5I3P104
Mörner, N.-A. (2019). Biology and Shore Morphology: keys to proper reconstruction of sea
level changes. Journal of Marine Biology and Aquascape, 1-020.
Doi: 10.31579/ 26415143/JMBA.2019 /020
Mörner, N.-A. & Finkl, C. (2017). Coastal dynamics. Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences, C.
Finkl & C. Makowski, eds, Springer.
Mörner, N.-A. & Matlack-Klein, P. (2017a). The Fiji tide-gauge stations. International Journal
of Geosciences, 8, 536-544.
Mörner, N.-A. & Matlack-Klein, P. (2017). New records of sea level changes in the Fiji
Islands. Oceanography & Fishery Open Access Journal, 5 (3), 20 pp
DOI: 10.19080/OFOAJ.2017.05.555666
Mörner, N.-A. & Newman, A. (2019). UN IPCC Scientist Blows Wistle on Lies About Climate,
Sea Level.
Mörner, N.-A., Parker, A. & Matlack-Klein, P. (2018). Deformations of land sea and gravity
levels by the 2009 Samoa Earthquake. International Journal of Geosciences, 9: 579-592.
2. Thomas Wysmuller (190313):
It is clear that rise, fall, or stasis of sea level is local. It changes locally, can be
measured locally, and trends locally. The most influential driver of local sea level
trend happens to be local tectonics. Variations are tide and storm driven, each
tending to cancel search other out, up and down, over long time periods along a
linear path. The exceptions are sharp spikes resulting from earthquake driven
tectonic movement that fall outside of far longer-term gradual tectonic movement.
Local long term tectonics determine directional trend of tide gauge measured sea
level, and these trends are straight-line linear all over the globe. Even in cases of
earthquake driven tectonics, local sea-level trends are linear before and after the
Coastal locations that are vertically “tectonically inert,” experiencing neither uplift
nor subsidence, exist all over the world. They generally lie between regions that
were formerly covered by ice sheets whose thickness was measured in kilometres,
and less ice covered areas previously uplifted (called “fore-bulge”) that are now
slowly sinking. In Europe, parts of Denmark qualify as “tectonically inert,” lying
between the great Norwegian and Swedish uplift, and bordering what are now called
the Low Countries; The Netherlands and Belgium, which continue to sink, and are
still getting lower. Similarly, regions of Western Canada lying between the Alaskan
uplift and eastern Pacific subsidence, can also be regarded as “tectonically inert.”
These areas experience an unchanging 1mm to 1.2mm rate of sea level rise when
measured over the span of a century. This is been well known for over two decades
a lengthy but comprehensive review can be found in The American Almanac’s
1997 article by Robert E Stevenson titled “AN OCEANOGRAPHER LOOKS AT THE
< >.
Stephenson offers up a comprehensive review of IPCC “issues.” In a section titled
Working Geophysical Scientists” Respond, Stevenson arrives at the 1mm/yr. sea
level rise, referencing first-rate researchers Nils-Axel Mörner, Robert Stewart, and
K.O. Emery & David Aubrey, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Other
than a missing umlaut in Mörner’s name, Stevenson’s review is dead accurate.
More recently GPS stations have been co-located with long-term tide gauges.
Those with a ten-year or greater record in tectonically inert coastal sites clearly show
the 1mm to 1.2mm rate of sea level rise. In other locales, netting out uplift or
subsidence where GPS is there to validate readings, 1mm to 1.2mm rates remain.
Fig. 2
This is the relative sea level record (blue curve) from Seward in Alaska as presented by
NOAA and PSMSL (with green line of CO2 added by D. Burton). It spans 90 years. The red
line is presented by NOAA and PSMSL as the mean long-term trend: a very rapid rise of
14.02 ±3.43 mm/yr. The truth, however, is something quite different. The area was hit by the
Alaskan 1964 earthquake of magnitude 9.3. Before the earthquake, sea level remained more
or less stable for 40 years. Then came the earthquake and land fell instantaneously by about
0.9 m. During the 50 yearspost-earthquake period, sea level fell by about 6.0 mm/yr. What
should we say about this way of handling observational facts? The “” database
says: a rapid rise of +14.0 mm/yr. But the truth is: a sea level fall of -6.0 mm/yr.
One other issue remains, and that is the differential between Satellite reported
readings and Tide Gauges. Satellite technology was introduced to hopefully provide
more objective measurement of the sea level rise. However, the new satellite and
radar altimeter data lacked the resolution to accurately measure sea levels down to
the mm level, by an order of magnitude or two. In addition, adjustments to this poorly
resolved data were also made most notably a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA).
GIA assumes that basically all previously ice covered land is rebounding from long
ago glaciations, but apparently neglects the fact that oceanic basins also deepened,
allowing more room for the melt water. The GIA theory is that this rebounding is
masking the “true” sea level, yet the transfer of weight from land to somewhat
geologically thinner ocean basins points slightly in the opposite direction.
In their defence, reported satellite altimeter readings are not only straight-line
linear over the last quarter century, but reflect changes noted in tide gauge readings
too. A notable example is the anheric Australian aquifer replenishment of 2010-2011
that dropped sea levels evidenced by both tide gauge and satellite reportage. It is
just the rate of increase reported that differs. Respect climate scientist, Dr. Roy
Spencer posits that “Biased Water Vapour Correction” might well be responsible <
acceleration-from-a-biased-water-vapor-correction/#comment-344516 > for the rate
differential. Other alternatives such as coding errors have been also been suggested
as possibilities too (Wysmuller, 2018; between 20:40
& 25:10).
These issues are still open and must be resolved!
Wusmuller, T. (2016). The problematic relationship between atmospheric temperature, sea-
level rise, weather event, and CO2. The London Conference on Climate Change: Science
& Geoethics, September 8-9, 2016, p. 63-64.
Wysmuller, T. (2017). The problematic relationship between temperature, weather events,
sea-level rise, and Co2 & Eclipe 21-18-2017. Proc. 4th World Climate Conference on
Climate Change, October 19-21, 2017, Rome, p. 90.
Wysmuller, T. (2018). The fall of IPCC’s sea level rise. The Porto Conference on Basic
Science of a Changing Climate, September 7-8, 2018, p.61-62.
Wysmuller, T. (2018). The Fall (failure) of the IPCC’s Sea-Level Rise. EIKE Conference on
Climate and Energy, November 23-24, 2018, Munich,
3. Albert Parker (190312):
There are no real “global” measurements of sea levels since 1870, or since 1993,
but only products engineered to give the false impression that the carbon dioxide
emission is driving both. There are however also real measurements, such as the
tide gauge records, and these measurements prove the global warming narrative is
false. Other indicators are for example the increasing, rather than shrinking, areas of
the emerged atoll islands in the Pacific or the Indian ocean (Duvat, 2018; Aslam &
Kench, 2017; Kench, Thompson, Ford, Ogawa & McLean, 2015; Webb & Kench,
2010) completely incompatible with the accelerating sea level rise scenarios of
overwhelming thermo-steric component.
There are very few tide gauges in the world that have been recording since 1870.
The most part is in North Europe, two of them are in North America. Not a single tide
gauge covers the South hemisphere. However, the only certainty in sea levels is that
all the long-term trend tide gauges of the world with more than 100 years of recorded
data, and no sign of administrative corrections, have negligible acceleration.
The lack of any acceleration in the tide gauges’ signals is very well known in the
literature, despite the ongoing censorship and harassment of dissidents practiced in
the last few decades.
The lack of any acceleration is shown for example by Beenstock, Reingewertz &
Paldor, 2012; Beenstock, Felsenstein, Frank, & Reingewertz, 2015; Boretti, 2012a,b;
Boretti & Watson, 2012; Dean & Houston, 2013; Douglas, 1992; Douglas & Peltier,
2002; Holgate, 2007; Houston & Dean, 2011; Jevrejeva, Grinsted, Moore & Holgate,
2006; Jevrejeva, Moore, Grinsted, and Woodworth, 2008; Mörner, 2004; Mörner,
2007; Mörner, 2010a,b,c; Mörner, 2011a,b; Mörner, 2013; Mörner, 2016; Parker,
2013a,b,c,d,e; Parker, 2014a,b; Parker, 2015; Parker & Ollier, 2015; Parker,
2016a,b,c,d,e; Parker & Ollier, 2017a,b; Parker, 2018a,b,c; Parker, 2019; Scafetta,
2014; Schmith, Johansen, & Thejll, 2012; Watson, 2011; Wenzel & Schröter, 2010;
and Wunsch, Ponte & Heimbach, 2007; just to name a few.
The average relative rate of rise at the long-term-trend world tide gauges is less
than 0.5 millimeter per year (Parker & Ollier, 2015; Parker & Ollier, 2017a, b). The
average acceleration is a negligible few micrometers per year squared (Parker &
Ollier, 2015; Parker & Ollier, 2017a, b). Thus, parabolic sea level rise forecasts
make plausible a relative sea level rise of 1 meter, on average, in about 2,000 years
(Parker & Ollier, 2015; Parker & Ollier, 2017a, b).
Similar doubts exist for the global temperature reconstructions, as apart from
urban heat island (UHI), change of land use and other biasing effects, or, again,
administrative corrections, many individual long-term-trend thermometer records
show a gentle warming with no significant acceleration component. Real global
measurements of air temperatures free of administrative corrections, such as the
satellite lower global troposphere temperature,
are only available since 1979. The 1970s were the times of a wrong consensus about
an imminent global cooling. The warming rate of the lower troposphere temperature
since 1979 is 0.0125 °C/yr. There is no acceleration component of this warming rate.
Real global measurements of ocean temperatures are only available since 2004.
These measurements suffer of administrative corrections. Outliers considered too
cold were indeed removed, while outliers too hot were kept, to correct the first cooling
trend shown after few years of measurements in a small warming trend
The measured temperatures of the world oceans 0-1,900 m from ARGO, despite
the administrative corrections, show a warming of the world oceans 0-1900 m of
0.0033 °C/yr. By considering a coefficient of thermal expansion 114·10-6 m/°C, for a
1,900 m salt water column, and neglecting the warming 1,900 m to the average
ocean depth of 3,682 m, the latest sea level rise contribution from thermal expansion
is, therefore, overrated to at the most 0.71 mm/yr. The contribution from melting of
ice on land is difficult to be assessed with accuracy, but it is not expected to be
This warming rate of the oceans is perfectly consistent with the long-term-trend
tide gauge result, that is relative, and not absolute sea level rise. The relative sea
level is rising (or falling) because the absolute sea level is rising or falling, for thermal
expansion and mass addition, or because the instrument and the land is rising or
Since the end of the last little ice age in the mid-1800s, the temperatures are
warming gently, and the sea levels are similarly rising slowly, both without any
acceleration component. The effect of the carbon dioxide emission is hard to be
detected, without having a pre-conceived agenda.
Aslam, M., & Kench, P. S. (2017). Reef Island dynamics and mechanisms of change in
Huvadhoo Atoll, Republic of the Maldives, Indian Ocean. Anthropocene, 18, 5768.
Beenstock, M., Reingewertz, Y. & Paldor, N., 2012. Polynomial cointegration tests of
anthropogenic impact on global warming. Earth System Dynamics, 3(2):173-188.
Beenstock, M., Felsenstein, D., Frank, E. & Reingewertz, Y., 2015. Tide gauge location and
the measurement of global sea level rise. Environmental and ecological statistics,
Boretti, A., 2012a. Short Term Comparison of Climate Model Predictions and Satellite
Altimeter Measurements of Sea Levels. Coastal Engineering, 60: 319-322.
Boretti, A., 2012b. Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that
parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels? Coastal Engineering, 64:161-167.
Boretti, A. & Watson, T., 2012. The inconvenient truth: Ocean Levels are not accelerating in
Australia. Energy & Environment. 23(5):801-817.
Dean, R.G. & Houston, J.R., 2013. Recent sea level trends and accelerations: comparison of
tide gauge and satellite results. Coastal Engineering, 75:4-9.
Douglas, B., 1992. Global Sea Level Acceleration. J. Geophysical Research, 97(8):12, 699-
12, 706.
Douglas, B. & Peltier, W. R, 2002. The Puzzle of Global Sea-Level Rise. Physics Today
Duvat V.K.E. (2018). A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past
decades. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 10: e557.
Holgate, S. J., 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century.
Geophysical Research Letters. 34, L01602.
Houston, J. R. & Dean, R. G., 2011. Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and
Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research. 27:409-
Japan Meteorological Agency, 2018. Sea level (around Japan). Update 29 Mar.
Jevrejeva, S., Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. & Holgate, S., 2006. Nonlinear trends and multiyear
cycles in sea level records. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 111(C9).
Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. C., Grinsted, A., and Woodworth, P., 2008. Recent global sea level
acceleration started over 200 years ago?, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08715.
Kench, P. S., Thompson, D., Ford, M. R., Ogawa, H., & McLean, R. F. (2015). Coral islands
defy sealevel rise over the past century: Records from a Central Pacific atoll. Geology,
43, 515518.
Mörner, N.-A., 2004. Estimating future sea level changes. Global Planetary Change, 40:49
Mörner, N.-A., 2007. Sea Level Changes and Tsunamis. Environmental Stress and Migration
over the Seas. Internationales Asienforum, 38:353374.
Mörner, N.-A., 2010a. Sea level changes in Bangladesh new observational facts. Energy and
Environment. 21(3):235-249.
Mörner, N.-A., 2010b. Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and its
changes with time. Quaternary International. 221(1-2):3-8.
Mörner, N.-A., 2010c. There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise! 21st Century Science &
Technology. Fall 2010:7-17.
Mörner, N.-A., 2011a. Setting the frames of expected future sea level changes by exploring
past geological sea level records. Chapter 6 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based
Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISBN: 978-0-12-385956-3.
Mörner, N.-A., 2011b. The Maldives: A measure of sea level changes and sea level ethics.
Chapter 7 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V.
ISBN: 978-0-12-385956-3.
Mörner, N.A., 2013. Sea level changes past records and future expectations. Energy &
Environment, 24(3-4):509-536.
Mörner, N.-A., 2016. Rates of Sea Level Changes -A Clarifying Note, by Nils-Axel Mörner,
International Journal of Geosciences, 7(11):1318-1322.
Parker, A., 2013a. Comment on Low-frequency sea level variation and its correlation with
climate events in the Pacific, Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(14):1708-1713.
Parker, A., 2013b. natural oscillations and trends in long-term tide gauge records from the
pacific, Pattern Recogn. Phys., 1:1-13.
Parker, A., 2013c. Sea level trends at locations of the United States with more than 100
years of recording, Natural Hazards, 65(1):1011-1021.
Parker, A., 2013d. Oscillations of sea level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America
north of Cape Hatteras, Natural Hazards, 65(1):991-997.
Parker, A., 2013e. Lower Bounds to Future Sea-Level Rise, International Journal of Ocean
and Climate Systems, 4(3):197-211.
Parker, A., 2014a. Apparent hot and cold spots of acceleration along the Atlantic and Pacific
coasts of the United States, Nonlinear Engineering, 3(1):51-56.
Parker, A., 2014b. Impacts of sea level rise on coastal planning in Norway, Ocean
Engineering, 78:124-130.
Parker, A. & Ollier, C. D., 2015. Coastal planning should be based on proven sea level data,
Ocean & Coastal Management, 124:1-9.
Parker, A., 2015. Accuracy and Reliability Issues in the Use of Global Positioning System
and Satellite Altimetry to Infer the Absolute Sea Level Rise, Journal of Satellite
Oceanography and Meteorology, 1(1):13-23.
Parker, A., 2016a. Rates of subsidence and relative sea level rise in the Hawaii Islands,
Nonlinear Engineering, 5(4):255-268.
Parker, A., 2016b. Coldspot of Decelerated Sea-Level Rise on the Pacific Coast of North
America, Quaestiones Geographicae, 35(3):31-37.
Parker, A., 2016c. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is stable under global warming,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,
113(20): E2760-E2761.
Parker, A., 2016d. Analysis of the sea levels in Kiribati a rising sea of misrepresentation
sinks Kiribati, Nonlinear Engineering, 5(1): 37-43.
Parker, A., 2016e. The actual measurements at the tide gauges do not support strongly
accelerating twentieth-century sea-level rise reconstructions, Nonlinear Engineering,
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predictions. Ocean & Coastal Management, 149: 198-209.
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inadequate to infer global sea level accelerations, Earth Syst. Environ 1: 17.
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Geosciences, 11:239.
Parker, A., 2018b. Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of the
20thcentury and consequences for coastal management - Part 2: China pearl river delta
region, Ocean and Coastal Management, 163:456-465.
Parker, A., 2018c. Relative sea level rise along the coast of China mid-twentieth to end
twenty-first centuries, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11:262.
Parker, A., 2019. Sea level oscillations in Japan and China since the start of the 20th century
and consequences for coastal management-Part 1: Japan. Ocean & Coastal
Manag.t, 169, 225-238.
Parker, A. & Ollier, C., 2018. The sea level of Guam, New Concepts in Global Tectonics
Journal, 6(2):235-242.
Scafetta, N., 2014. Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO,
AMO, and NAO indexes. Climate Dynamics, 43:175-192.
Schmith, T., Johansen, S. & Thejll, P., 2012. Statistical analysis of global surface
temperature and sea level using cointegration methods. Journal of Climate, 25(22):7822-
Watson, P.J., 2011. Is There Evidence Yet of Acceleration in Mean Sea Level Rise around
Mainland Australia?, Journal of Coastal Research. 27(2):368377.
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Evidence from multidecadal analysis of Island change in the Central Pacific. Global and
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Wenzel, M. & Schröter, J., 2010. Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from
tide gauges using neural networks. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans.
Wunsch, R., Ponte, R. & Heimbach, P., 2007. Decadal trends in sea level patterns: 1993-
2004. Journal of Climatology. 20(24):5889-5911.
... In the global warming concept, it has been constantly claimed that there will be a causal rise in sea level; a rise that already is in an accelerating mode, in the near future to cause extensive and disastrous flooding of low-lying coastal areas and islands. Is this facts or fiction, what lies behind this idea, and, especially, what do the true international sea level specialists think [78][79][80][81][82]. Personally, I had to evaluate the last Assessment report (AR6) as "A remarkable lobbying product for the IPCC -But a document failing to fulfil scientific standards" [83]. ...
... The proposed global sea level rise by the IPCC [70] in the order of 3.3 mm/yr is not endorsed by observational facts: on the contrary, it is revealed as incorrect [91,92,93]. The idea of a present acceleration in sea level rise [8,70] is not confirmed at a single point on the globe [82,83], and where proposed, a closer examination of available data always reveals direct interpretational errors [82,105]. ...
... The proposed global sea level rise by the IPCC [70] in the order of 3.3 mm/yr is not endorsed by observational facts: on the contrary, it is revealed as incorrect [91,92,93]. The idea of a present acceleration in sea level rise [8,70] is not confirmed at a single point on the globe [82,83], and where proposed, a closer examination of available data always reveals direct interpretational errors [82,105]. ...
... Earthquakes may alter the elevation of the reference level. Wysmuller [7] refers to a terrible misuse of actually observed tidegauge measurements at Seward station in Alaska ( Figure 2). The record spans 90 years. ...
... and after 1964 it shows a 50 years' long period of relative sea level lowering due to crustal uplift at a mean rate of -2.74±0.64mm/yr. In the original databases of both NOAA and PSMSL the record from the Seward station was given as a longterm sea level rise of +14mm/yr (Figure 2), which must be held as a vulgarization of how tide-gauge records should be analysed [7]. ...
... Tide-gauge record from Seward, Alaska, as presented by NOAA and PSMSL with red line providing a mean trend ignoring the 100 cm earthquake induced jump in 1964 (modified from Wysmuller[7]). ...
Full-text available
The tide-gauge stations all over the globe frequently include gaps, earthquake deformations of reference level, damages of stations and re-locations of sites. In meaningful reconstruction of past sea level change all such structures must be handled with great care. In the original databases of PSMSL and NOAA they are ignored, invalidating meaningful long-term mean trend analyses.
... In the global warming concept, it has been constantly claimed that there will be a causal rise in sea level; a rise that already is in an accelerating mode, in the near future to cause extensive and disastrous flooding of low-lying coastal areas and islands. Is this facts or fiction, what lies behind this idea, and, especially, what do the true international sea level specialists think [78][79][80][81][82]. Personally, I had to evaluate the last Assessment report (AR6) as "A remarkable lobbying product for the IPCC -But a document failing to fulfil scientific standards" [83]. ...
... The proposed global sea level rise by the IPCC [70] in the order of 3.3 mm/yr is not endorsed by observational facts: on the contrary, it is revealed as incorrect [91,92,93]. The idea of a present acceleration in sea level rise [8,70] is not confirmed at a single point on the globe [82,83], and where proposed, a closer examination of available data always reveals direct interpretational errors [82,105]. ...
... The proposed global sea level rise by the IPCC [70] in the order of 3.3 mm/yr is not endorsed by observational facts: on the contrary, it is revealed as incorrect [91,92,93]. The idea of a present acceleration in sea level rise [8,70] is not confirmed at a single point on the globe [82,83], and where proposed, a closer examination of available data always reveals direct interpretational errors [82,105]. ...
Full-text available
It all began with observations. With Ovidius changes and metamorphoses were incorporated in the ancient «scientific» knowledge. Aristotle's was to formulate the world's first model claiming that the Earth was in the planetary centre. This model fooled the world for 1800 years. There is a danger in ruling models. The nuclear waste handling and the global warming scenario are two such modern ruling models, both of which are here challenged because of observational facts. Geoethics calls for an increased respect for observational facts. Observation-interpretation-conclusion must be the base and backbone for science today, as it has been in the past.
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Over the past decades, atoll islands exhibited no widespread sign of physical destabilization in the face of sea‐level rise. A reanalysis of available data, which cover 30 Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls including 709 islands, reveals that no atoll lost land area and that 88.6% of islands were either stable or increased in area, while only 11.4% contracted. Atoll islands affected by rapid sea‐level rise did not show a distinct behavior compared to islands on other atolls. Island behavior correlated with island size, and no island smaller than 10 ha decreased in size. This threshold could be used to define the minimum island size required for human occupancy and to assess atoll countries and territories' vulnerability to climate change. Beyond emphasizing the major role of climate drivers in causing substantial changes in the configuration of islands, this reanalysis of available data indicates that these drivers explain subregional variations in atoll behavior and within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline (lagoon vs. ocean) behavior, following atoll‐specific patterns. Increasing human disturbances, especially land reclamation and human structure construction, operated on atoll‐to‐shoreline spatial scales, explaining marked within‐atoll variations in island and shoreline behavior. Collectively, these findings highlight the heterogeneity of atoll situations. Further research needs include addressing geographical gaps (Indian Ocean, Caribbean, north‐western Pacific atolls), using standardized protocols to allow comparative analyses of island and shoreline behavior across ocean regions, investigating the role of ecological drivers, and promoting interdisciplinary approaches. Such efforts would assist in anticipating potential future changes in the contributions and interactions of key drivers. This article is categorized under: • Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change • Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior
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The values of present to future rates in sea level changes vary in an almost chaotic way. In view of the urgent need to handle this question in a constructive way, we must anchor the issue in observational facts, physical laws and long-term scientific experience. Doing so, we can put a solid ultimate frame of any possible rise in sea level in the next centuries: viz. 10.0 mm/yr or 1.0 m per century. If this is the ultimate possible rate, the expected rate in the 21st century must be far less. The author’s proposition is +5 cm ± 15 cm by year 2100.
In Japan tide gauges are abundant, recording the sea levels since the end of the 19th century. Here I analyze the long-term tide gauges of Japan: the tide gauges of Oshoro, Wajima, Hosojima and Tonoura, that are affected to a lesser extent by crustal movement, and of Aburatsubo, which is more affected by crustal movement. Hosojima has an acceleration 1894 to 2018 of +0.0016 mm/yr². Wajima has an acceleration 1894 to 2018 of +0.0046 mm/yr². Oshoro has an acceleration 1906 to 2018 of −0.0058 mm/yr². Tonoura has an acceleration 1894 to 1984 of −0.0446 mm/yr². Aburatsubo, has an acceleration 1894 to 2018 of −0.0066 mm/yr². There is no sign of any sea level acceleration around Japan since the start of the 20th century. The different tide gauges show low frequency (>10 years) oscillations of periodicity quasi-20 and quasi-60 years. The latter periodicity is the strongest in four cases out of five. As the sea levels have been oscillating, but not accelerating, in the long-term-trend tide gauges of Japan since the start of the 20th century, the same as all the other long-term-trend tide gauges of the world, it is increasingly unacceptable to base coastal management on alarmist prediction that are not supported by measurements.
This study examines low-frequency (>10 years) sea level variations in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region. The low-frequency sea level variability is relevant to regional sea level forecasting and flood risk management. Linear and parabolic fittings are applied to the monthly average mean sea levels (MSL) measured by tide gauges. A spectral analysis is performed of the time series of the MSL and the time series of the monthly climate indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)/NINO. Based on the analysis of a composite record of different tide gauges, the PRD Region sea levels, despite being complicated by the river discharge, have reduced similarity with either ENSO, NINO or PDO indices. The PRD Region sea levels have low frequency similarities with the sea level pattern in the Western North Pacific (e.g. Hosojima, Japan) and Western South Pacific (e.g. Sydney, Australia), while at higher frequencies the similarities reduce. One strong low frequency fluctuation of periodicity quasi-20 years is very clear and another of a longer periodicity of quasi-60 years is clear. There is then a relevant fluctuation of about 12 years of periodicity, of reduced amplitude compared to the quasi-20 years fluctuation. In the medium frequency range (<10 years), there are several components detected, but the intensity of the fluctuations is largely reduced compared to the fluctuation of 12 years periodicity. Regionally, the sea levels in the PRD region and Japan show no significant acceleration from 1900 to present, but only oscillations. This result is consistent with the other coastal area of the world where long-term tide gauges are located. Policy making, and management, should therefore focus on adaptive measures linked to the monitoring by tide gauges and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) of relative sea level rise and land subsidence. Extreme sea level rise warnings based on predictions by never validated models, or speculations, that are defocusing coastal management from every other relevant situation, should be discharged.
Long records of sea level show decadal and multi-decadal oscillations of synchronous and asynchronous phases, which cannot be detected in short-term records. Without incorporating these oscillations, it is impossible to make useful assessments of present global accelerations and reliable predictions of future changes of sea level. Furthermore, it is well known that local sea-level changes occur also because of local factors such as subsidence due to groundwater or oil extraction, or tectonic movements that may be either up or down.
Observational facts recorded and controllable in the field tell a quite different story of actual sea-level rise than the ones based on model simulations, especially all those who try to endorse a preconceived scenario of disastrous flooding to come. "Poster sites" like Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Kiribati in the Pacific have tide gauge stations indicating stable sea-level conditions over the last 20-30. years. The Maldives, Goa, Bangladesh, and several additional sites in the Indian Ocean provide firm field evidence of stable sea-level conditions over the last 40-50. years. Northeast Europe provides excellent opportunities to test regional eustasy, now firmly being set at+1.0. ±0.1. mm/year. Other test areas like Venice, Guyana-Surinam, Qatar, and Perth provide a eustatic factor of ±0.0. mm/year. We now have a congruent picture of actual global sea-level changes, ie, between ±0.0 to+1.0. mm/year. This implies little or no threat for future sea-level problems.
The extreme predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been the inspiration of hundreds of papers by local panels proposing ever-increasing alarming messages. The latest analyses are on the effect on the surf spots of California of a tidal range added to a sea level rise of 1.67 m. We show that the sea level rises estimate by a local panel for California as well as the IPCC for the entire world are up to one order of magnitude larger than what is extrapolated from present sea level rise rates and accelerations based on tide gauge data sets (California-8, Permanent Service on Mean Sea Level PSMSL-301, Mitrovica-23, Holgate-9, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA-199 and US-71). These extrapolations are consistent with present temperature warming rates and accelerations of different global temperature data sets (University of Alabama in Huntsville UAH and Remote Sensing Systems RSS) and IPCC Assessment Report (AR) 5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 sensitivity. As the evidence from the measurements does not support the IPCC expectations or the even more alarming predictions by the local California panel, these claims and the subsequent analyses are too speculative and not suitable for rigorous use in planning or policy making.
Planform changes in 184 reef islands in Huvadhoo atoll, Republic of Maldives are quantified in the context of global environmental change and anthropogenic impacts. Aggregated at the atoll scale, results show that, over the past four decades, total land area increased by 59 ha (2.4%). Land reclamation of 93.8 ha on 12 inhabited islands was the dominant factor in the increase in land area. Excluding reclaimed islands from the dataset reveals net erosion of atoll island area of 28.5 ha (1.5%). Erosion was prevalent on 45% of islands with remaining islands being stable (40%) or increasing in area (15%). A relationship between island size and planform change was identified. Small islands (<10 ha) were dominated by erosional responses whereas larger islands were dominated be accretion. Results indicate future transformation in atoll land resources to fewer smaller islands but an increase in size of larger islands. Results also indicate that all islands changed, underscoring the dynamic nature of islands on reef surfaces. Ten distinct styles of island adjustment were identified from the dataset. Direct human impact, through reclamation, was found to have a more significant impact on island change in the atoll than secondary factors such as sea level change and changes in reefal sediment supply. Implications for the Maldives are discussed and indicate that land resources for ongoing habitation will persist across the next century though the location of tourism activities on smaller islands places this valuable economic sector at risk. Analysis of historic island change provides a rich information source to reconsider landuse planning in the context of climate change adaptation.
Mörner, N.-A., 0000. Coastal morphology and sea-level changes in Goa, India during the last 500 years. Coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, historical documentation, and tide gauge records allowed us to establish a very firm and detailed record of the changes in sea level in Goa over the last 500 years. It is an oscillation record: a low level in the early 16th century, a +50-cm high level in the 17th century, a level below present sea level in the 18th century, a +20-cm high level in the 19th and early 20th centuries, a ∼20-cm fall in 1955–1962, and a virtually stable level over the last 50 years. This sea level record is almost identical to those obtained in the Maldives and in Bangladesh. The Indian Ocean seems to lack records of any alarming sea-level rise in recent decades; on the contrary, 10 sites analyzed indicate a sea level remaining at about ±0.0, at least over the last 50 years or so.
The major cause of the Hawaiian Islands coastal erosion is shown to be not global warming, but the sinking of the volcanic islands. The geologic “circle-of-life” beyond the Hawaiian hot spot is the true explanation of the beach erosion. The sea levels are slow rising and not accelerating worldwide as well as in the United States. In the specific of the Hawaii Islands, they have been decelerating over the last 3 decades because of the phasing of the multi-decadal oscillations for this area of the Pacific. There is therefore no evidence coastal erosion will double in the Hawaii by 2050 because of global warming.