The views of three sea level specialists
Comments by N.-A. Mörner, T. Wysmuller & A. Parker
On March 9, 2019, The Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) published
their weekly report beginning with review note on “Rising Seas – At Sea, or Shore”
(http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm...). We found it far too superficial to have
any meaningful message to tell. Instead, we wrote the following comments.
1. – Nils-Axel Mörner (190311):
It is sad when those who are NGW-proponents (i.e. opposite to AGW) do not
present adequate analyses – in this case of sea level changes. Let me therefore
summarize a few points with respect to my own views and papers:
• It is necessary to understand the coastal dynamics (Mörner, 2017a), thermal
expansion (Mörner, 2017b), and the multiple forces behind coastal erosion
(Mörner & Finkl, 2017) and sea level changes (Mörner, 2017c).
• The satellite altimetry records have been “corrected” or rather “manipulated”
(Mörner, 2017d, 2015) – the real values are about +0.55 ±0.1 mm/yr.
• The subject of sea level changes includes exaggerations far beyond scientifically
established “frames” (Mörner, 2018a, 2018b).
• Global isostatic adjustment must be questioned (Mörner, 2015).
• The gauge records must be analysed with care (Mörner & Matlack-Klein, 2017a;
Mörner et al., 2018) as they include so many different forcing components.
• In fact, there is nothing we can call “mean global sea level changes” (Mörner &
Newman, 2019; Mörner, 2018c, 2019).
• Nowhere do we see any adequate field records of “acceleration”. Many
erroneous records have been revealed (e.g. Mörner et al. 2018; Parker, below).
• The sea level changes during the last 500 years are dominated by “rotational
eustasy” (with minute effects from glacial eustasy and thermal effects) as
documented by multiple facts in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific (Mörner &
Matlack-Klein, 2017b; Mörner, 2016a, 2016b, 2017e, 2019).
• A summary of sea level changes is presented by Mörner & Newman (2019) – or
To be within the frames of realistic sea level change
or in the pink field of nonsense
Changes in sea level are a hot topic, and frequently addressed in present day media.
The quality of statements is another thing. Doomsday statements of a rapidly rising
sea are not anchored in observational facts, however.
In truly scientific assessments we must always be within the blue field set by the
frames of realistic sea level change (the figure below from Mörner, 2018b).
The science of sea level changes is a complicated issue and calls for deep
knowledge in a number of fields given by the frames in the figure below. The author
notices with sadness that people still think that there are shortcuts in sea level
research, and that even an outsider can contribute with significant material – maybe,
they can summarize data, but they can never advance the science of sea level
changes in any meaningful way: rather mess it up.
The frames change with increased knowledge and observational facts.
All what is said, shown and claimed in this paper lie well within the frames of the blue box.
Very much of what IPCC and its proponents claim lie
well out side the frames of realistic sea level changes
in the pink field of nonsense
Let us reserve “the pink field of nonsense” for the AGW-proponents, who have
created their own frames, where factors like personal ideas, public agenda, modelling
data and personal benefits are included, it seems.
The NGW-proponents must be sure that all what the claim in talking or writing lie
with in the frames of realistic sea level changes. One foot in the pink field, and reality
Mörner, N.-A. (2015). Glacial isostasy: regional – not global. International Journal of
Geosciences, 6, 577-592. http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijg
Mörner, N.-A. (2016a). Sea level changes as observed in nature. In: Evidence-based Climate
Change, Second Revised Edition, D.J. Easterbrook, ed., Chapter 12, p. 219-231. Elsevier.
Mörner, N.-A. (2016b). Coastal morphology and sea level changes in Goa, India, during the
last 500 years. Journal of Coastal Research, 33:2, 421-434.
Mörner, N.-A. (2017a). Coastal dynamics. Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences, C. Finkl & C.
Makowski, eds, Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-48657-4_374-1
Mörner, N.-A. (2017b). Thermal expansion. Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences, C. Finkl & C.
Makowski, eds, Springer. DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-48657-4_375-1
Mörner, N.-A. (2017c). Sea Level Changes. Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences, C. Finkl & C.
Makowski, eds, Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-48657-4_66-2
Mörner, N.-A. (2017d). Sea level manipulation. International Journal of Engineering and
Science Invention, 6 (8), 48-51. http://www.ijesi.org/papers/Vol(6)8/Version-
Mörner, N.-A. (2017e). Our Oceans – Our Future: New evidence-based sea level records
from the Fiji Islands for the last 500 years indicating rotational eustasy and absence of a
present rise in sea level. International Journal of Earth & Environmental Sciences, 2: 137.
Mörner, N.-A. (2018a). Global Sea Level Variations. International Journal of Earth Sciences
and Engineering, 11 (4): 1-4 (invited paper).
Mörner, N.-A. (2018b). The illusive flooding of New York City. Journal of Environmental
Sciences, 1 (2), 1-11. https://nessapublishers.com/view-article.php?id=333/The-Illusive-
Mörner, N.-A. (2018c). Absolute evidence of the absence of an on-going sea level rise on
Ouvéa Island of New Caledonia. SSRG-International Journal of Geoinformatics and
Geological Science, 5 (3): 30-33. IJGGS-V5I3P104
Mörner, N.-A. (2019). Biology and Shore Morphology: keys to proper reconstruction of sea
level changes. Journal of Marine Biology and Aquascape, 1-020.
Doi: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.31579/ 26415143/JMBA.2019 /020
Mörner, N.-A. & Finkl, C. (2017). Coastal dynamics. Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences, C.
Finkl & C. Makowski, eds, Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-48657-4_373-1
Mörner, N.-A. & Matlack-Klein, P. (2017a). The Fiji tide-gauge stations. International Journal
of Geosciences, 8, 536-544.
Mörner, N.-A. & Matlack-Klein, P. (2017). New records of sea level changes in the Fiji
Islands. Oceanography & Fishery Open Access Journal, 5 (3), 20 pp
Mörner, N.-A. & Newman, A. (2019). UN IPCC Scientist Blows Wistle on Lies About Climate,
Sea Level. https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/31472-un-ipcc-
Mörner, N.-A., Parker, A. & Matlack-Klein, P. (2018). Deformations of land sea and gravity
levels by the 2009 Samoa Earthquake. International Journal of Geosciences, 9: 579-592.
2. – Thomas Wysmuller (190313):
It is clear that rise, fall, or stasis of sea level is local. It changes locally, can be
measured locally, and trends locally. The most influential driver of local sea level
trend happens to be local tectonics. Variations are tide and storm driven, each
tending to cancel search other out, up and down, over long time periods along a
linear path. The exceptions are sharp spikes resulting from earthquake driven
tectonic movement that fall outside of far longer-term gradual tectonic movement.
Local long term tectonics determine directional trend of tide gauge measured sea
level, and these trends are straight-line linear all over the globe. Even in cases of
earthquake driven tectonics, local sea-level trends are linear before and after the
Coastal locations that are vertically “tectonically inert,” experiencing neither uplift
nor subsidence, exist all over the world. They generally lie between regions that
were formerly covered by ice sheets whose thickness was measured in kilometres,
and less ice covered areas previously uplifted (called “fore-bulge”) that are now
slowly sinking. In Europe, parts of Denmark qualify as “tectonically inert,” lying
between the great Norwegian and Swedish uplift, and bordering what are now called
the Low Countries; The Netherlands and Belgium, which continue to sink, and are
still getting lower. Similarly, regions of Western Canada lying between the Alaskan
uplift and eastern Pacific subsidence, can also be regarded as “tectonically inert.”
These areas experience an unchanging 1mm to 1.2mm rate of sea level rise when
measured over the span of a century. This is been well known for over two decades
– a lengthy but comprehensive review can be found in The American Almanac’s
1997 article by Robert E Stevenson titled “AN OCEANOGRAPHER LOOKS AT THE
NON-SCIENCE OF "GLOBAL WARMING"
< http://members.tripod.com/~american_almanac/globwarm.htm >.
Stephenson offers up a comprehensive review of IPCC “issues.” In a section titled
“Working Geophysical Scientists” Respond, Stevenson arrives at the 1mm/yr. sea
level rise, referencing first-rate researchers Nils-Axel Mörner, Robert Stewart, and
K.O. Emery & David Aubrey, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Other
than a missing umlaut in Mörner’s name, Stevenson’s review is dead accurate.
More recently GPS stations have been co-located with long-term tide gauges.
Those with a ten-year or greater record in tectonically inert coastal sites clearly show
the 1mm to 1.2mm rate of sea level rise. In other locales, netting out uplift or
subsidence where GPS is there to validate readings, 1mm to 1.2mm rates remain.
This is the relative sea level record (blue curve) from Seward in Alaska as presented by
NOAA and PSMSL (with green line of CO2 added by D. Burton). It spans 90 years. The red
line is presented by NOAA and PSMSL as the mean long-term trend: a very rapid rise of
14.02 ±3.43 mm/yr. The truth, however, is something quite different. The area was hit by the
Alaskan 1964 earthquake of magnitude 9.3. Before the earthquake, sea level remained more
or less stable for 40 years. Then came the earthquake and land fell instantaneously by about
0.9 m. During the 50 years’ post-earthquake period, sea level fell by about 6.0 mm/yr. What
should we say about this way of handling observational facts? The “sealevel.info” database
says: a rapid rise of +14.0 mm/yr. But the truth is: a sea level fall of -6.0 mm/yr.
One other issue remains, and that is the differential between Satellite reported
readings and Tide Gauges. Satellite technology was introduced to hopefully provide
more objective measurement of the sea level rise. However, the new satellite and
radar altimeter data lacked the resolution to accurately measure sea levels down to
the mm level, by an order of magnitude or two. In addition, adjustments to this poorly
resolved data were also made – most notably a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA).
GIA assumes that basically all previously ice covered land is rebounding from long
ago glaciations, but apparently neglects the fact that oceanic basins also deepened,
allowing more room for the melt water. The GIA theory is that this rebounding is
masking the “true” sea level, yet the transfer of weight from land to somewhat
geologically thinner ocean basins points slightly in the opposite direction.
In their defence, reported satellite altimeter readings are not only straight-line
linear over the last quarter century, but reflect changes noted in tide gauge readings
too. A notable example is the anheric Australian aquifer replenishment of 2010-2011
that dropped sea levels evidenced by both tide gauge and satellite reportage. It is
just the rate of increase reported that differs. Respect climate scientist, Dr. Roy
Spencer posits that “Biased Water Vapour Correction” might well be responsible <
acceleration-from-a-biased-water-vapor-correction/#comment-344516 > for the rate
differential. Other alternatives such as coding errors have been also been suggested
as possibilities too (Wysmuller, 2018; https://youtu.be/h4tz_8Mb_1M between 20:40
These issues are still open and must be resolved!
Wusmuller, T. (2016). The problematic relationship between atmospheric temperature, sea-
level rise, weather event, and CO2. The London Conference on Climate Change: Science
& Geoethics, September 8-9, 2016, p. 63-64.
Wysmuller, T. (2017). The problematic relationship between temperature, weather events,
sea-level rise, and Co2 & Eclipe 21-18-2017. Proc. 4th World Climate Conference on
Climate Change, October 19-21, 2017, Rome, p. 90.
Wysmuller, T. (2018). The fall of IPCC’s sea level rise. The Porto Conference on Basic
Science of a Changing Climate, September 7-8, 2018, p.61-62.
Wysmuller, T. (2018). The Fall (failure) of the IPCC’s Sea-Level Rise. EIKE Conference on
Climate and Energy, November 23-24, 2018, Munich, https://youtu.be/h4tz_8Mb_1M
3. – Albert Parker (190312):
There are no real “global” measurements of sea levels since 1870, or since 1993,
but only products engineered to give the false impression that the carbon dioxide
emission is driving both. There are however also real measurements, such as the
tide gauge records, and these measurements prove the global warming narrative is
false. Other indicators are for example the increasing, rather than shrinking, areas of
the emerged atoll islands in the Pacific or the Indian ocean (Duvat, 2018; Aslam &
Kench, 2017; Kench, Thompson, Ford, Ogawa & McLean, 2015; Webb & Kench,
2010) completely incompatible with the accelerating sea level rise scenarios of
overwhelming thermo-steric component.
There are very few tide gauges in the world that have been recording since 1870.
The most part is in North Europe, two of them are in North America. Not a single tide
gauge covers the South hemisphere. However, the only certainty in sea levels is that
all the long-term trend tide gauges of the world with more than 100 years of recorded
data, and no sign of administrative corrections, have negligible acceleration.
The lack of any acceleration in the tide gauges’ signals is very well known in the
literature, despite the ongoing censorship and harassment of dissidents practiced in
the last few decades.
The lack of any acceleration is shown for example by Beenstock, Reingewertz &
Paldor, 2012; Beenstock, Felsenstein, Frank, & Reingewertz, 2015; Boretti, 2012a,b;
Boretti & Watson, 2012; Dean & Houston, 2013; Douglas, 1992; Douglas & Peltier,
2002; Holgate, 2007; Houston & Dean, 2011; Jevrejeva, Grinsted, Moore & Holgate,
2006; Jevrejeva, Moore, Grinsted, and Woodworth, 2008; Mörner, 2004; Mörner,
2007; Mörner, 2010a,b,c; Mörner, 2011a,b; Mörner, 2013; Mörner, 2016; Parker,
2013a,b,c,d,e; Parker, 2014a,b; Parker, 2015; Parker & Ollier, 2015; Parker,
2016a,b,c,d,e; Parker & Ollier, 2017a,b; Parker, 2018a,b,c; Parker, 2019; Scafetta,
2014; Schmith, Johansen, & Thejll, 2012; Watson, 2011; Wenzel & Schröter, 2010;
and Wunsch, Ponte & Heimbach, 2007; just to name a few.
The average relative rate of rise at the long-term-trend world tide gauges is less
than 0.5 millimeter per year (Parker & Ollier, 2015; Parker & Ollier, 2017a, b). The
average acceleration is a negligible few micrometers per year squared (Parker &
Ollier, 2015; Parker & Ollier, 2017a, b). Thus, parabolic sea level rise forecasts
make plausible a relative sea level rise of 1 meter, on average, in about 2,000 years
(Parker & Ollier, 2015; Parker & Ollier, 2017a, b).
Similar doubts exist for the global temperature reconstructions, as apart from
urban heat island (UHI), change of land use and other biasing effects, or, again,
administrative corrections, many individual long-term-trend thermometer records
show a gentle warming with no significant acceleration component. Real global
measurements of air temperatures free of administrative corrections, such as the
satellite lower global troposphere temperature, www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-
are only available since 1979. The 1970s were the times of a wrong consensus about
an imminent global cooling. The warming rate of the lower troposphere temperature
since 1979 is 0.0125 °C/yr. There is no acceleration component of this warming rate.
Real global measurements of ocean temperatures are only available since 2004.
These measurements suffer of administrative corrections. Outliers considered too
cold were indeed removed, while outliers too hot were kept, to correct the first cooling
trend shown after few years of measurements in a small warming trend
The measured temperatures of the world oceans 0-1,900 m from ARGO, despite
the administrative corrections, show a warming of the world oceans 0-1900 m of
0.0033 °C/yr. By considering a coefficient of thermal expansion 114·10-6 m/°C, for a
1,900 m salt water column, and neglecting the warming 1,900 m to the average
ocean depth of 3,682 m, the latest sea level rise contribution from thermal expansion
is, therefore, overrated to at the most 0.71 mm/yr. The contribution from melting of
ice on land is difficult to be assessed with accuracy, but it is not expected to be
This warming rate of the oceans is perfectly consistent with the long-term-trend
tide gauge result, that is relative, and not absolute sea level rise. The relative sea
level is rising (or falling) because the absolute sea level is rising or falling, for thermal
expansion and mass addition, or because the instrument and the land is rising or
Since the end of the last little ice age in the mid-1800s, the temperatures are
warming gently, and the sea levels are similarly rising slowly, both without any
acceleration component. The effect of the carbon dioxide emission is hard to be
detected, without having a pre-conceived agenda.
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Huvadhoo Atoll, Republic of the Maldives, Indian Ocean. Anthropocene, 18, 57–68.
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anthropogenic impact on global warming. Earth System Dynamics, 3(2):173-188.
Beenstock, M., Felsenstein, D., Frank, E. & Reingewertz, Y., 2015. Tide gauge location and
the measurement of global sea level rise. Environmental and ecological statistics,
Boretti, A., 2012a. Short Term Comparison of Climate Model Predictions and Satellite
Altimeter Measurements of Sea Levels. Coastal Engineering, 60: 319-322.
Boretti, A., 2012b. Is there any support in the long term tide gauge data to the claims that
parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising sea levels? Coastal Engineering, 64:161-167.
Boretti, A. & Watson, T., 2012. The inconvenient truth: Ocean Levels are not accelerating in
Australia. Energy & Environment. 23(5):801-817.
Dean, R.G. & Houston, J.R., 2013. Recent sea level trends and accelerations: comparison of
tide gauge and satellite results. Coastal Engineering, 75:4-9.
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Duvat V.K.E. (2018). A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past
decades. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 10: e557.
Holgate, S. J., 2007. On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth century.
Geophysical Research Letters. 34, L01602.
Houston, J. R. & Dean, R. G., 2011. Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide Gauges and
Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of Coastal Research. 27:409-
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Jevrejeva, S., Grinsted, A., Moore, J.C. & Holgate, S., 2006. Nonlinear trends and multiyear
cycles in sea level records. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 111(C9).
Jevrejeva, S., Moore, J. C., Grinsted, A., and Woodworth, P., 2008. Recent global sea level
acceleration started over 200 years ago?, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L08715.
Kench, P. S., Thompson, D., Ford, M. R., Ogawa, H., & McLean, R. F. (2015). Coral islands
defy sea‐level rise over the past century: Records from a Central Pacific atoll. Geology,
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over the Seas. Internationales Asienforum, 38:353–374.
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changes with time. Quaternary International. 221(1-2):3-8.
Mörner, N.-A., 2010c. There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise! 21st Century Science &
Technology. Fall 2010:7-17.
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past geological sea level records. Chapter 6 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based
Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISBN: 978-0-12-385956-3.
Mörner, N.-A., 2011b. The Maldives: A measure of sea level changes and sea level ethics.
Chapter 7 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V.
Mörner, N.A., 2013. Sea level changes past records and future expectations. Energy &
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climate events in the Pacific, Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(14):1708-1713.
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pacific, Pattern Recogn. Phys., 1:1-13.
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years of recording, Natural Hazards, 65(1):1011-1021.
Parker, A., 2013d. Oscillations of sea level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America
north of Cape Hatteras, Natural Hazards, 65(1):991-997.
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and Climate Systems, 4(3):197-211.
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coasts of the United States, Nonlinear Engineering, 3(1):51-56.
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and Satellite Altimetry to Infer the Absolute Sea Level Rise, Journal of Satellite
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America, Quaestiones Geographicae, 35(3):31-37.
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sinks Kiribati, Nonlinear Engineering, 5(1): 37-43.
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accelerating twentieth-century sea-level rise reconstructions, Nonlinear Engineering,
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predictions. Ocean & Coastal Management, 149: 198-209.
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20thcentury and consequences for coastal management - Part 2: China pearl river delta
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temperature and sea level using cointegration methods. Journal of Climate, 25(22):7822-
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Mainland Australia?, Journal of Coastal Research. 27(2):368–377.
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tide gauges using neural networks. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans.
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