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PENGARUH MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PASAR SAHAM LIQUID DI INDONESIA
Abstract
Penelitian ini menggunakan variabel makro ekonomi yaitu Suku Bunga BI, Indeks Harga Konsumen, Kurs Beli, Jumlah Uang Beredar dalam arti luas (M2), dan Ekspor. Variabel yang dipengaruhinya adalah pasar liquid di Indonesia yaitu Indeks LQ45. Pengunaan data bulanan dari Januari 2010 sampai dengan Desember 2016 dan metode yang digunakan adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil dari penelitian adalah tidak ada hubungan dan berpengaruh jangka pendek dari variabel makro ekonomi terhadap pasar liquid selain Kurs Beli dengan lag ke-2 meskipun variabel makro ekonomi memiliki hubungan dan berpengaruh jangka panjang pada pasar liquid tersebut
... stated that inflation positively influences stock prices using multiple linear regression.The Bank Indonesia interest rate (BI rate) is specified by the central bank as a monetary policy stance.Lubis (2017) used VECM and found that stocks are negatively affected by ...
This study aims to analyze the influence and response of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) volatility to changes in macroeconomic variables. VECM was used to examine the long-and short-term effects, while IRF was used to analyze the JII response. Data were obtained from BPS, BI, and Yahoo Finance monthly from 2015-2020 using global macroeconomic fiscal variables, including inflation, BI and Exchange Rates, Industrial Production Index, World Oil Price, Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index, and DJIM Malaysia Titan 25 Index. The results show that JII is influenced by inflation variables, BI rate, IPI, OP, MHS, and DJIM in the long term but not the exchange rate. Furthermore, it is influenced by BI rate, IPI, OP, MHS, and DJIM in the short term, while the exchange rate and inflation have no significant effect. Macroeconomic variable shock influence JII by 52,27% while the rest is influenced by other variables outside the model. This research implies that the JII index is very sensit ive to economic changes.
... IRF dan VD. IRF bertujuan untuk mengetahui seperti apa laju dari shock yang terjadi pada salah satu variabel dan pengaruhnya pada variabel yang lain (Lubis, 2017). Tidak hanya melihat efek shock/guncangan variabel dengan menggunakan uji IRF kita dapat mengetahui sampai kapan pengaruh shock itu akan hilang sampai titik keseimbangan kembali pulih. ...
In this time, the countries can be said to be in a good condition of the national economy if there are some indicators in positive economic macro, it is including the decline of inflation, the amount of money circulating is also decline, and the exchange rate strengthening against foreign currencies and reduced interest rates. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality and cointegration relationships of economic macro variables, by using time series data for 2010-2019 and using the VECM model. The results of the study found that there is no causality relationship between inflation and the BI rate. Likewise, the variable money supply does not affect the BI rate. The exchange rate also does not affect each other on the BI rate variable. Causality test results also indicate that the money supply does not have a causality relationship to inflation, while the exchange rate variables influence each other on inflation. To exchange rates, it does not give affect in the variable amount of money in circulation each other. By explanation of the estimation results of the VECM model, it shows the long-term and short-term relationships of each variable generally.
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