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voith.com
The journey from scenarios
to roadmaps at Voith
Enrique LuqueAleman | Voith
Thomas Abele | TIM Consulting
Liza Wohlfart | Fraunhofer IAO
III. Fraunhofer-IAO / FOM-KCT Conference “Roadmapping in Practice”
Stuttgart, Feb. 14th, 2019
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith.
Agenda.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 2
1. Voith
2. Project Target and Organization
3. Scenario-Analysis
4. Technology-Roadmap
5. Review and Outlook
1. Voith.
Four Group Divisions: A well positioned company.
Digital Ventures
Solutions for the
internet of things:
networking and
digitalization
Hydro
Full-line supplier
for hydro power
plant equipment
Turbo
Intelligent
drive systems
and solutions
Paper
Partner and
pioneer in the
paper industry
Voith Group
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
Energy
Oil & Gas
Paper
Raw Materials
Transport & automotive
19535
60
€4.2Billion
Sales
employees
In more than
Family-owned since
1. Voith.
Voith in figures.
countries
As of: 2017/18
markets
1867 R&D ratio
5.4%
5
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
1. Voith.
Dynamic growth and solid profits over decades.
•Positive results even in times
of recession
Sales
Profit from Operations
in € millions
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith.
Agenda.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 6
1. Voith
2. Project Target and Organization
3. Scenario-Analysis
4. Technology-Roadmap
5. Review and Outlook
“Voith intends to establish a consistent,
systematic & sustainable foresight and
roadmapping process in all divisions in order
to identify and understand future challenges
and opportunities for product development.“
▪Scenario-based Roadmapping
−Use of state-of-the-art methods
−Use of networks and targeted integration of
experts
▪Transformation Management
−Integration and coaching of Voith employees
in order to steady the process
2. Project Organization and Target.
Voith can develop an advantageous competitive position.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 7
2. Project Organization and Target.
Objective of future Scenarios and Roadmapping.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 8
What are possible future
scenarios?
Which requirements result
from each scenario?
What will we need to do?
What do we have to
do today?
Scenarios 2040
2. Project Organization and Target.
Transition from Scenarios to Roadmaps.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 9
10
2. Project Organization and Target.
Project Overview.
WP1
SETUP
Setup,
scoping
& planning
WP2
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Voith Paper
Voith Turbo
Voith Hydro
Voith Digital Ventures
WP3
STRATEGIC TARGETS
TECHNOLOGY AND
INNOVATION FIELDS
Voith Paper
Voith Turbo
Voith Hydro
Voith Digital Ventures
Cross division
alignment
WP4
TECHNOLOGY-
ROADMAPPING
Voith Paper
Voith Turbo
Voith Hydro
Voith Digital
Ventures
New Business Identification
Cross division
alignment
Cross Divisional Analysis
DOCUMENTATION
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
2. Project Organization and Target.
Organization.
CTO-Board
Steering Board
Project Coordination
tPL
DIV 1
PL
DIV 2
PL
DIV 3
PL
DIV 4
Division Core Team
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 11
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith.
Agenda.
12
1. Voith
2. Project Target and Organization
3. Scenario-Analysis
4. Technology-Roadmap
5. Review and Outlook
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
▪A simple long-term extrapolation of trends
does not work…
–because trends can have uncertain,
opposing directions
–because trends can have a highly
complex interdependency
What are scenarios?
▪Narratives/pictures of alternative futures
▪For long-term foresight
▪Generated in a systematic way based on
aligned expert knowledge
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Trends
Present Future
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Why apply Scenarios?
13The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
▪Scenarios provide detailed pictures of plausible futures.
▪The scenario process creates a shared mindset, a common language to talk about the future.
▪Scenarios create a solid basis for subsequent use, e.g. risk assessment, strategy evaluation and
development, trend monitoring, opportunity identification, etc.
▪Scenarios allow to deal with ambiguities in a systematic approach using established expertise.
“It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.”
a
b
c
Clear enough
future Alternative
futures A range of
futures True
ambiguity
Source: Courtney et al. (1997): Strategy under uncertainty
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Benefits of Scenarios.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 14
Descriptors
~ 20 Main Descriptors
~2-3 Projections
per Descriptor
~3 Consistent Scenarios
Cause-Effect Analysis:
Descriptor vs. Descriptor Knowledge of
Expert Group
Discussion,
Substantiation,
Evaluation,
Alignment
Development of Projections
Cross Impact Analysis:
Projection vs. Projection
System Scope
Collection of
Influence Factors
Cost of energy
Trade
environment
+ conditions
Mobility
of people
OEM landscape
Refurbishment
vs. construction
Infrastructure
investment
Energy efficiency and
machine productivity
Construction workforce
composition
New business models
Automation
Internet of things
and smart
components
Precision
construction
Big data
analysis
Construction
materials
Building /
space costs
Availability of
material /
recycling
Machine sizes
Market fragmentation of construction companies
Transportation of goods
Construction
techniques
PESTEL analysis Cause-Effect Matrix
System grid Network graph
Cross-Impact matrix
Fact book
Scenario clustersConsistent projections
External & Internal Experts
Interdisciplinary Teams
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Scenario Process.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 15
Preparation
M1: Onboarding
W4: Scenario
Definition
W1: Scoping and
Descriptors
2035 20452040
2017
W2: Cause-Effect
Analysis W3: Cross-Impact
Analysis W5: Scenario
Finalization
Fact Book
Development Scenario
Calculation Storyline
Development
M2: Interim Check
Expert interviews
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Workshop Timeline.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 16
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Collection of Influence Factors.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 17
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Detailing and Discussion of Influence Factors.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 18
19
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Definition of Scenarios.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Three categories of Experts.
▪Voith-internal expert
▪External expert related to Voith, e. g.
−Scientific expert familiar to Voith
−Lead customer or supplier
and
▪External expert so far unrelated to Voith
offering new fields of expertise
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 20
Differentiators
Distinction
between scenarios
Posters
Illustrations of
single scenarios
One-Pagers
Description of
single scenarios
Fact Book
Basis for
scenarios
Formats
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Scenario-Formats.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 21
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Paper: Alternative Pictures of the Future.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14 22
> positive scenario < > negative scenario < “Same same but different“
►Technology disruptions in
processes and products across
the entire paper value chain
► …
►Relevance of paper packaging is
replaced by alternative solutions
and changing consumer behavior
► …
►Technological leaps occur outside
the paper industry
► …
23
3. Scenario-Analysis.
Identification of Lead Scenarios.
Probability of Realization
Impact on business
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith.
Agenda.
24
1. Voith
2. Project Target and Organization
3. Scenario-Analysis
4. Technology-Roadmap
5. Review and Outlook
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
25
4. Roadmapping.
Fundamental Concept: Bridging the gaps.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
26
2. Where are
we now?1. Where do we
want to go?
3. How can we
get there?
a. Why do we
need to act?
b. What should
we do?
c. How can we
do it?
4. Roadmapping.
Generic questions and expected result.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
27
STRATEGIC TARGETS
TECHNOLOGY AND
INNOVATION FIELDS
TECHNOLOGY-
ROADMAPPING
Workshop As-Is-Analysis Environment
understanding of customer requirements:
empathy map
Workshop As-Is-Analysis Company
core competence analysis:
technology portfolio
Work Package: SCENARIO
3 consistent pictures of the future,
lead scenario
Workshop
•strategic targets:
roadmap canvas
Workshops
•derivation of projects:
roadmap canvas
•separate workshop:
production
Workshop To-Be-Analysis Technology
future impact of technologies:
linking grid
Consolidation Preliminary Work
market & product strategy, as-is project
program, competitive analysis …
ANALYSIS
4. Roadmapping.
Workshop Timeline.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
2019-02-14_Voith Technology Forecast Scenario to Roadmap | 2019-02-14
Buy
External Development
Own Development
Own Production
External Production
4. Roadmapping.
Technology-
Portfolio.
29
4. Roadmapping.
Linking Grid Scenario-Technologies.
Scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario
China 1 Scenario
China 2 Business Drivers
key requirements with regard to products,
services and value generation in relevant and
adjacent markets (existing/emerging markets
and new business fields)
(contribution: 0 - no; 1 - small; 3 - medium; 9 -
high)
New Fields
Field 1 Technology 1 1,9 6,1 4,8 1,5 3,0 6,6
…Technology 2 1,3 3,8 5,3 1,9 2,2 1,8
Technology 3 1,3 3,2 5,3 5,8 9,0 1,8
Technology 4 1,0 6,1 7,5 7,5 9,0 3,8
Technology 5 6,3 9,0 6,2 9,0 9,0 6
Technology 6 1,9 1,6 4,7 7,5 9,0 4,4
Technology 7 6,3 7,1 6,2 9,0 9,0 3,2
Technology 8 1,0 2,3 5,5 4,8 4,5 1,6
Technology 9 3,0 3,0 3,0 4,1 5,5 5
Technology 10 3,0 4,9 6,6 6,7 9,0 4,8
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith.
Agenda.
31
1. Voith
2. Project Target and Organization
3. Scenario-Analysis
4. Technology-Roadmap
5. Review and Outlook
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14
32
“Voith intends to establish a consistent,
systematic & sustainable foresight and
roadmapping process in all divisions in order
to identify and understand future challenges
and opportunities for product development.“
▪Scenario-based Roadmapping
−Use of state-of-the-art methods
−Use of networks and targeted integration of
experts
▪Transformation Management
−Integration and coaching of Voith employees
in order to steady the process
4. Review and Outlook.
Team Assessment.
The journey from scenarios to roadmaps at Voith | 2019-02-14