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An ecological framework for contextualizing carnivore–livestock conflict

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Conservation Biology
Authors:
Christine E. Wilkinson at California Academy of Sciences
Christine E. Wilkinson
Alex Mcinturff at University of California, Berkeley
Alex Mcinturff
Jennifer R. B. Miller at Defenders of Wildlife
Jennifer R. B. Miller
Veronica Yovovich at Panthera
Veronica Yovovich
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Abstract and Figures

Carnivore predation on livestock is a complex management and policy challenge, yet it is also intrinsically an ecological interaction between predators and prey. Human–wildlife interactions occur in socioecological systems in which human and environmental processes are closely linked. However, underlying human–wildlife conflict and key to unpacking its complexity are concrete and identifiable ecological mechanisms that lead to predation events. To better understand how ecological theory accords with interactions between wild predators and domestic prey, we developed a framework to describe ecological drivers of predation on livestock. We based this framework on foundational ecological theory and current research on interactions between predators and domestic prey. We used this framework to examine ecological mechanisms (e.g., density‐mediated effects, behaviorally mediated effects, and optimal foraging theory) through which specific management interventions operate, and we analyzed the ecological determinants of failure and success of management interventions in 3 case studies: snow leopards (Panthera uncia), wolves (Canis lupus), and cougars (Puma concolor). The varied, context‐dependent successes and failures of the management interventions in these case studies demonstrated the utility of using an ecological framework to ground research and management of carnivore–livestock conflict. Mitigation of human–wildlife conflict appears to require an understanding of how fundamental ecological theories work within domestic predator–prey systems.
Ecological interactions between aspects of the biophysical landscape, carnivore ecology, and livestock ecology that influence livestock predation events: (a) density‐mediated trophic cascades; (b) landscape of fear for carnivores and behaviorally mediated trophic cascades; (c) optimal foraging theory (as applies to carnivore–livestock interactions), which includes the real or perceived cost of hunting livestock; (d) apparent competition or apparent facilitation; and (e) predator–prey shell games and response races including humans serving as the response on behalf of the livestock prey.
Ecological interactions between aspects of the biophysical landscape, carnivore ecology, and livestock ecology that influence livestock predation events: (a) density‐mediated trophic cascades; (b) landscape of fear for carnivores and behaviorally mediated trophic cascades; (c) optimal foraging theory (as applies to carnivore–livestock interactions), which includes the real or perceived cost of hunting livestock; (d) apparent competition or apparent facilitation; and (e) predator–prey shell games and response races including humans serving as the response on behalf of the livestock prey.
… 
Interactions between individual drivers of carnivore–livestock conflict nested within broad categories of the biophysical landscape, livestock ecology, and carnivore ecology. Symbols next to the individual drivers represent the influence of one or more broad categories on that driver. An individual driver can be influenced by other drivers within and outside of its category.
Interactions between individual drivers of carnivore–livestock conflict nested within broad categories of the biophysical landscape, livestock ecology, and carnivore ecology. Symbols next to the individual drivers represent the influence of one or more broad categories on that driver. An individual driver can be influenced by other drivers within and outside of its category.
… 
Interventions applied to snow leopard predation on livestock in the Himalayas and Central Asian Plateau contextualized in an ecological framework (arrows, pathways through which interventions operate; small diamonds, mechanisms through which interventions operate). Rotational grazing, better‐designed corrals, decreasing stragglers in daytime pastures, and avoiding grazing in low‐visibility terrain operate through (c) altering optimal foraging dynamics (as applies to carnivore–livestock interactions) by increasing the cost of hunting livestock for predators. Rotational grazing (d) increases apparent facilitation by increasing the wild prey availability via increasing pasture available for wild prey. Decreasing stragglers in daytime pastures and avoiding grazing in low visibility terrain also affect the dynamics of (e) predator–prey shell games and response races in which humans determine the predictability of prey locations in relation to habitat patch risk.
Interventions applied to snow leopard predation on livestock in the Himalayas and Central Asian Plateau contextualized in an ecological framework (arrows, pathways through which interventions operate; small diamonds, mechanisms through which interventions operate). Rotational grazing, better‐designed corrals, decreasing stragglers in daytime pastures, and avoiding grazing in low‐visibility terrain operate through (c) altering optimal foraging dynamics (as applies to carnivore–livestock interactions) by increasing the cost of hunting livestock for predators. Rotational grazing (d) increases apparent facilitation by increasing the wild prey availability via increasing pasture available for wild prey. Decreasing stragglers in daytime pastures and avoiding grazing in low visibility terrain also affect the dynamics of (e) predator–prey shell games and response races in which humans determine the predictability of prey locations in relation to habitat patch risk.
… 
Interventions applied to reduce wolf predation on sheep in Idaho (U.S.A.), contextualized in an ecological framework (arrows, pathways through which interventions operate; small diamonds, mechanisms through which interventions operate). Increased human presence, livestock guardian dogs, and husbandry or deterrents or both reshape (b) landscapes of fear for carnivores and behaviorally mediated trophic cascades by influencing the fear and behavior of carnivores and (c) optimal foraging by influencing the cost of preying on livestock. Husbandry, deterrents, or both also change (e) predator–prey shell games and response races with humans as the adaptive prey response of livestock.
Interventions applied to reduce wolf predation on sheep in Idaho (U.S.A.), contextualized in an ecological framework (arrows, pathways through which interventions operate; small diamonds, mechanisms through which interventions operate). Increased human presence, livestock guardian dogs, and husbandry or deterrents or both reshape (b) landscapes of fear for carnivores and behaviorally mediated trophic cascades by influencing the fear and behavior of carnivores and (c) optimal foraging by influencing the cost of preying on livestock. Husbandry, deterrents, or both also change (e) predator–prey shell games and response races with humans as the adaptive prey response of livestock.
… 
Human–cougar conflict in Washington (U.S.A.) is primarily managed through lethal control of cougar populations (ecologically, a manipulation of predator ecology that has little impact on prey or landscape ecology) (arrows, pathways through which population control operates; small diamonds, mechanisms through which cougar population controls operates). Direct cougar population control increases predation on livestock through (a) density‐mediated cascades that affect cougar behavior, distribution, and demographics.
Human–cougar conflict in Washington (U.S.A.) is primarily managed through lethal control of cougar populations (ecologically, a manipulation of predator ecology that has little impact on prey or landscape ecology) (arrows, pathways through which population control operates; small diamonds, mechanisms through which cougar population controls operates). Direct cougar population control increases predation on livestock through (a) density‐mediated cascades that affect cougar behavior, distribution, and demographics.
… 
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Special Section Review
An ecological framework for contextualizing
carnivore–livestock conflict
Christine E. Wilkinson ,1∗Alex McInturff,1Jennifer R. B. Miller,1,2 Veronica Yovovich,1
Kaitlyn M. Gaynor,1Kendall Calhoun,1Harshad Karandikar,1Jeff Vance Martin,3
Phoebe Parker-Shames,1Avery Shawler,1Amy Van Scoyoc,1and Justin S. Brashares1
1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, 139 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720,
U.S.A.
2Defenders of Wildlife, 1130 17th St. NW, Washington DC, 20036, U.S.A.
3Department of Geography, University of California, 505 McCone Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720, U.S.A.
Abstract: Carnivore predation on livestock is a complex management and policy challenge, yet it is also intrinsi-
cally an ecological interaction between predators and prey. Human–wildlife interactions occur in socioecological
systems in which human and environmental processes are closely linked. However, underlying human–wildlife
conflict and key to unpacking its complexity are concrete and identifiable ecological mechanisms that lead to
predation events. To better understand how ecological theory accords with interactions between wild predators
and domestic prey, we developed a framework to describe ecological drivers of predation on livestock. We
based this framework on foundational ecological theory and current research on interactions between predators
and domestic prey. We used this framework to examine ecological mechanisms (e.g., density-mediated effects,
behaviorally mediated effects, and optimal foraging theory) through which specific management interventions
operate, and we analyzed the ecological determinants of failure and success of management interventions in 3
case studies: snow leopards (Panthera uncia), wolves (Canis lupus), and cougars (Puma concolor). The varied,
context-dependent successes and failures of the management interventions in these case studies demonstrated
the utility of using an ecological framework to ground research and management of carnivore–livestock conflict.
Mitigation of human–wildlife conflict appears to require an understanding of how fundamental ecological theories
work within domestic predator–prey systems.
Keywords: carnivore, conflict management, ecological theory, human–wildlife conflict, livestock
Un Marco de Trabajo Ecol´
ogico para Contextualizar el Conflicto Carn´
ıvoro – Ganado
Resumen: La depredaci´
on del ganado por carn´
ıvoros es un reto complejo para el manejo y las pol´
ıticas, a
pesar de que es intr´
ınsecamente una interacci´
on ecol´
ogica entre depredadores y presas. Las interacciones entre
humanos y la fauna ocurren en sistemas socio-ecol´
ogicos en los que los humanos y los procesos ambientales
est´
an conectados estrechamente. Sin embargo, el conflicto humano – fauna subyacente y la clave para desenredar
su complejidad son mecanismos ecol´
ogicos complejos e identificables que resultan en eventos de depredaci´
on.
Para tener un mejor entendimiento sobre c´
omo la teor´
ıa ecol´
ogica armoniza con las interacciones entre los
depredadores silvestres y la presa dom´
estica, desarrollamos un marco de trabajo para describir las causantes
ecol´
ogicas de la depredaci´
on del ganado. Basamos este marco de trabajo en las principales teor´
ıas ecol´
ogicas y
las investigaciones actuales sobre las interacciones entre los depredadores y las presas dom´
esticas. Usamos este
marco de trabajo para examinar los mecanismos ecol´
ogicos (es decir, los efectos mediados por la densidad, los
efectos mediados por el comportamiento, y la teor´
ıa del forrajeo ´
optimo) mediante los cuales operan ciertas
intervenciones espec´
ıficas de manejo y analizamos las determinantes ecol´
ogicas del fracaso y el ´
exito de las
intervenciones de manejo en tres estudios de caso: el leopardo de las nieves (Panthera uncia), el lobo (Canis
lupus), y el puma (Puma concolor). Los ´
exitos y fracasos variados y dependientes del contexto que sufrieron
las intervenciones de manejo en estos estudios de caso demostraron la utilidad del uso de un marco de trabajo
ecol´
ogico para aterrizar la investigaci´
on y el manejo del conflicto carn´
ıvoro - ganado. La mitigaci´
on del conflicto
∗Address correspondence to Christine E. Wilkinson, email christine.wilkinson@berkeley.edu
Article impact statement: Applying long-established ecological concepts to human-managed systems can inform more effective management
of carnivore–livestock conflict.
Paper submitted August 19, 2018; revised manuscript accepted February 4, 2019.
854
Conservation Biology, Volume 34, No. 4, 854–867
C
2020 Society for Conservation Biology
DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13469
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Full-text available
  • Feb 2018
Predation on domestic animals by carnivores is a persistent problem wherever carnivores and livestock co-occur. A wide range of management tools to reduce predation has been invoked. However, the evidence of their effectiveness is still limited for a broader range of species and conditions. Using a global analysis of domestic animal predation by native carnivores under a “before-after/control-impact” framework, we assessed the effectiveness of management techniques used to reduce domestic animal predation identifying knowledge gaps and research needs. We reviewed 291 predation cases in 149 studies published between 1990 and 2017 involving 47 carnivores. Lethal control is the most common method to reduce predation in comparison with nonlethal techniques. Yet the effectiveness of both approaches remains poorly evaluated (30.1% of study cases) and largely based on producers’ perceptions (70% of cases where effectiveness was evaluated). Lethal control and night confinement of domestic animals would have no effect on reducing predation, whereas the use of livestock-guarding dogs, fencing, or herdsmen may significantly reduce domestic animal losses. When the effectiveness of each technique to reduce predation was assessed by large and mesocarnivores, fencing significantly reduced predation of domestic animals by the former. Despite little scientifically published material, our findings indicate lethal control would have no effect in reducing animal predation by native carnivores when compared with nonlethal techniques. Our study also indicates the effectiveness may vary depending on the type of carnivore involved in the conflict with livestock activity. The use of an evidence-based framework to measure and assess the differential effectiveness of nonlethal techniques and the use of complementary tools at different spatial and temporal scales must be research priorities to prevent livestock predation while promoting the conservation of carnivores in production-oriented lands as encouraged by the Convention of Biological Diversity.
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Effectiveness of a LED flashlight technique in reducing livestock depredation by lions (Panthera leo) around Nairobi National Park, Kenya
Article
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The global lion (Panthera leo) population decline is partly a result of retaliatory killing in response to livestock depredation. Nairobi National Park (NNP) is a small protected area in Kenya surrounded by a human-dominated landscape. Communities around the park use flashlights to deter lions from their livestock bomas. We investigated the response by lions to the installation of a LED flashlight technique during 2007–2016.We interviewed 80 owners of livestock bomas with flashlights (n = 43) and without (n = 37) flashlights in the surroundings of NNP and verified reported attacks on bomas against predation data over10 years. The frequency of attacks on bomas equipped with flashlights was significantly lower compared to bomas without flashlights. We also found that after flashlight installation at livestock bomas, lion attacks took place further away from the park edge, towards areas where bomas without flashlights were still present. With increased numbers of flashlight installations at bomas in recent years, we further noticed a shift from nocturnal to more diurnal predation incidences. Our study shows that the LED flashlight technique is effective in reducing nocturnal livestock predation at bomas by lions. Long term studies on the effects as well as expansion of this technique into other communities around NNP are recommended.
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Factors affecting the success of grizzly bear translocations: Grizzly Bear Translocations
Article
Full-text available
  • Jan 2018
Evaluations of wildlife translocation can be traditional assessments of survival and reproductive success or can be expanded to include valuable but seldom used measures of behavior and physiology in reference to baseline data from a resident population. In Alberta, Canada where grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) are listed as a threatened species, there has been research on resident grizzly bear populations but limited follow-up of translocated individuals associated with management actions. We determined an outcome for 110 grizzly bear translocation events (77 failed events, 33 successful events) between 1974 and 2014. We used logistic regression to investigate the effects of individual bear characteristics, management strategies, and habitat factors on translocation success. A translocation event was successful if the bear did not require further management action and if the bear survived at least one year without homing. We also compared the home range size, habitat selection, and denning behavior of translocated bears to the resident population over time to assess the long-term effects of translocation. The odds of translocation success were higher if bears were moved early in the year and decreased by 47% for each unit increase in the level of mortality risk (based on road density, water, and edge features) at the release site. The odds of homing decreased substantially at translocation distances >100 km, but bears translocated outside the Bear Management Area (BMA) of capture had annual home ranges that were 3.25 times larger on average than resident bears. Translocated bears were initially selecting high quality habitat similar to areas used by resident bears, but this behavior appeared to decline after the first year of translocation. Den entry dates, den exit dates, and the denning period of translocated bears did not differ significantly from resident bears. Our findings can aid managers in making more informed decisions when considering translocation as a tool for managing human–bear conflict or supporting grizzly bear conservation efforts. © 2018 The Wildlife Society.
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Impact of wild prey availability on livestock predation by snow leopards
Article
Full-text available
  • Jun 2017
An increasing proportion of the world’s poor is rearing livestock today, and the global livestock population is growing. Livestock predation by large carnivores and their retaliatory killing is becoming an economic and conservation concern. A common recommendation for carnivore conservation and for reducing predation on livestock is to increase wild prey populations based on the assumption that the carnivores will consume this alternative food. Livestock predation, however, could either reduce or intensify with increases in wild prey depending on prey choice and trends in carnivore abundance. We show that the extent of livestock predation by the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia intensifies with increases in the density of wild ungulate prey, and subsequently stabilizes. We found that snow leopard density, estimated at seven sites, was a positive linear function of the density of wild ungulates—the preferred prey—and showed no discernible relationship with livestock density. We also found that modelled livestock predation increased with livestock density. Our results suggest that snow leopard conservation would benefit from an increase in wild ungulates, but that would intensify the problem of livestock predation for pastoralists. The potential benefits of increased wild prey abundance in reducing livestock predation can be overwhelmed by a resultant increase in snow leopard populations. Snow leopard conservation efforts aimed at facilitating increases in wild prey must be accompanied by greater assistance for better livestock protection and offsetting the economic damage caused by carnivores.
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ARTICLE Top predators constrain mesopredator distributions
Article
Full-text available
  • Mar 2017
Top predators can suppress mesopredators by killing them, competing for resources and instilling fear, but it is unclear how suppression of mesopredators varies with the distribution and abundance of top predators at large spatial scales and among different ecological contexts. We suggest that suppression of mesopredators will be strongest where top predators occur at high densities over large areas. These conditions are more likely to occur in the core than on the margins of top predator ranges. We propose the Enemy Constraint Hypothesis, which predicts weakened top-down effects on mesopredators towards the edge of top predators' ranges. Using bounty data from North America, Europe and Australia we show that the effects of top predators on mesopredators increase from the margin towards the core of their ranges, as predicted. Continuing global contraction of top predator ranges could promote further release of mesopredator populations, altering ecosystem structure and contributing to biodiversity loss.
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Top predators constrain mesopredator distributions
Article
Full-text available
  • May 2017
Top predators can suppress mesopredators by killing them, competing for resources and instilling fear, but it is unclear how suppression of mesopredators varies with the distribution and abundance of top predators at large spatial scales and among different ecological contexts. We suggest that suppression of mesopredators will be strongest where top predators occur at high densities over large areas. These conditions are more likely to occur in the core than on the margins of top predator ranges. We propose the Enemy Constraint Hypothesis, which predicts weakened top-down effects on mesopredators towards the edge of top predators’ ranges. Using bounty data from North America, Europe and Australia we show that the effects of top predators on mesopredators increase from the margin towards the core of their ranges, as predicted. Continuing global contraction of top predator ranges could promote further release of mesopredator populations, altering ecosystem structure and contributing to biodiversity loss.
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The ecology of cheetahs and other large carnivores in a pastoralist-dominated buffer zone
Thesis
  • Jan 2003
Due to the various limitations of core-protected areas, interest in semi-protected landscapes and the human-wildlife interactions that occur within them is rapidly gaining credence. Some of the most important issues within this field are human-carnivore relationships, with many large carnivores globally threatened on one hand but with the capability of potentially devastating impacts on humans on the other. In this thesis, the success of cheetahs, their competitors and their predators in two buffer zones (Loliondo and Ngorongoro) of the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania was examined in comparison with populations living inside the park. The potential role played in carnivore ecology by the Maasai pastoralists inhabiting the buffer zones was then examined to assess the extent to which their presence determines any of the differences. The results show that large carnivores and their prey are surviving successfully outside the core-protected area, coexisting with the pastoralist Maasai. Herbivores were shown to exist at equivalent diversity and density outside the park, with the two- year average prey biomass significantly higher in Loliondo than inside the park (Χ^2_2= 49, p<0.001). The only species consistently more abundant inside the park were kongoni, topi and warthog. However, temporal variation was large and the system was better described as a single, dynamic entity rather than three distinct and comparable sites. Study sites outside the park also held substantial populations of all large carnivore species. Densities of both common jackal species were higher outside the park, hyaena estimates were higher inside the park and there was no significant difference between lion estimates (Χ^2_2=0.4, NS). Lion density in Loliondo was estimated at 0.37 lions / km2, a density comparable with most protected areas. Cheetah data were limited but showed a substantial population outside the park. Several carnivore estimation methods were used in the study, and comparison of the results showed that the visual-based surveys commonly used elsewhere (line transects or driven indices) were highly limited outside protected areas. Little behavioural variation was shown in cheetahs between individuals inside and outside the park (effect of region on time spent relaxed: F5,65=0.09, NS). Both cheetahs and lions showed strong reactions to playbacks of Maasai cattle, however responses were mixed with only lions outside the park showing a consistent increase in vigilance (T9 = -2.72, p<0.05). The role of Maasai was investigated through questionnaires. Their answers showed large carnivores to be a major part of their environmental perceptions, with lions, hyaenas and leopards receiving the top salience scores, although cheetahs were not due to a lack of differentiation between the spotted cats. General attitudes were positive, particularly in Ngorongoro, but attitudes towards large carnivores were mostly negative. Costs of coexistence were significant for both sides; livestock predation was experienced by 89% of Loliondo respondents and 63% of Ngorongoro respondents, with predators accounting for 1% of cattle herds and 3% of sheep and goats, although disease accounted for far higher. Human injuries were also reported, although most (70% in Loliondo and 50% in Ngorongoro) occurred through lion hunts. The lion hunt is still an important part of Maasai culture, with over 75% of respondents reporting having attended at least one. Based on average estimates from respondents and age group leaders, 30-40 lions are thought to be ritually killed in the entire Maasai area (including Kenya) each year. However, although the relationship between the Maasai and carnivores is far from harmonious, coexistence is continuing thanks to semi-tolerant attitudes, restrictions on hunting impacts and preventative livestock management systems.
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Assessing factors related to wolf depredation of cattle in fenced pastures in Montana and Idaho
Article
  • Dec 2005
Managing wolf (Canis lupus) depredation on livestock is expensive and controversial; therefore, managers seek to improve and develop new methods to mitigate conflicts. Determining which factors put ranches at higher risk to wolf depredation may provide ideas for ways to reduce livestock and wolf losses. We sampled cattle pastures in Montana and Idaho that experienced confirmed wolf depredations (n = 34) from 1994–2002 and compared landscape and selected animal husbandry factors with cattle pastures on nearby ranches where depredations did not occur (n = 62). Pastures where depredations occurred were more likely to have elk (Cervus elaphus) present, were larger in size, had more cattle, and grazed cattle farther from residences than pastures without depredations. Using classification tree analysis, we found that a higher percentage of vegetation cover also was associated with depredated pastures in combination with the variables above. We found no relationship between depredations and carcass disposal methods, calving locations, calving times, breed of cattle, or the distance cattle were grazed from the forest edge. Most pastures where depredations occurred during the wolf denning season (April 15-June 15) were located closer to wolf dens than nearby cattle pastures without depredations. Physical vulnerability, especially of calves, also may increase risk of depredation.
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