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Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system

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Abstract

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s aim of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5 °C requires substantial changes in the land system. However, individual countries’ plans to accomplish these changes remain vague, almost certainly insufficient and unlikely to be implemented in full. These shortcomings are partially the result of avoidable ‘blind spots’ relating to time lags inherent in the implementation of land-based mitigation strategies. Key blind spots include inconsistencies between different land-system policies, spatial and temporal lags in land-system change, and detrimental consequences of some mitigation options. We suggest that improved recognition of these processes is necessary to identify achievable mitigation actions, avoiding excessively optimistic assumptions and consequent policy failures.

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... On the one hand, it reflects a recognition of the potential for widespread, escalating, and possibly irreversible human, material, and ecological impacts of climate change (3,4). On the other, it acknowledges the overwhelming challenges entailed by mitigating anthropogenic climate change in accordance with agreed-upon temperature targets and adapting to those climatic hazards that cannot be avoided (5,6). ...
... However, these phenomena tend to be treated as discrete challenges with distinct drivers and unique solutions-usually discussed in separate, discipline-specific fora-thereby failing to recognize that they are integral parts of a whole, endogenous system. The literature on societal vulnerability to climate change often downplays the devastating consequences of armed conflict, for example, by bundling violence and conflict together with more general governance and institutional considerations (which usually are regarded secondary to socioeconomic and environmentally determined drivers of vulnerability) 5 or by providing "siloed" or disciplinary-specific views on vulnerability (9,28). The empirical climate-conflict literature is mostly preoccupied with exploring climatic hazards as drivers of conflict risk without thoroughly engaging with research on determinants of vulnerability or considering how conflict might increase social sensitivity to climate events. ...
... There is also a vivid academic debate about whether climate-related migration can act as a driver of conflict (e.g., 86,87). 5 A key observation is that climate effects on conflict vary across space and time, and that socioeconomic development and the quality and strength of political institutions shape this variation. 6 This is not a coincidence; in both economic and political domains, major drivers of vulnerability are found (Section 2.1). ...
Article
Climate change threatens core dimensions of human security, including economic prosperity, food availability, and societal stability. In recent years, war-torn regions such as Afghanistan and Yemen have harbored severe humanitarian crises, compounded by climate-related hazards. These cases epitomize the powerful but presently incompletely appreciated links between vulnerability, conflict, and climate-related impacts. In this article, we develop a unified conceptual model of these phenomena by connecting three fields of research that traditionally have had little interaction: ( a) determinants of social vulnerability to climate change, ( b) climatic drivers of armed conflict risk, and ( c) societal impacts of armed conflict. In doing so, we demonstrate how many of the conditions that shape vulnerability to climate change also increase the likelihood of climate–conflict interactions and, furthermore, that impacts from armed conflict aggravate these conditions. The end result may be a vicious circle locking affected societies in a trap of violence, vulnerability, and climate change impacts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 46 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
... Similarly, changes in soil quality as a result of harvesting a larger share of above-ground biomass are, at best, coarsely represented. Finally, IAMs often neglect governance (Köberle, 2019) and local context, including existing energy and industry infrastructure and policies, which affect both implementation rate and type of bioenergy systems implemented (Brown et al., 2019;Butnar et al., 2020). ...
... The pace of expansion is also important to consider when assessing impacts of bioenergy expansion. As for many other mitigation options, the scenarios resulting from IAMs show very rapid technological and societal uptake of bioenergy, compared with historical trends (Brown et al., 2019;Turner et al., 2018;Vaughan & Gough, 2016). Theoretical analyses (Alexander et al., 2013) and real-world experiences (Brown et al., 2018;Dimitriou et al., 2011) indicate that it can be challenging to ramp up biomass supply at the rates found in modelling studies. ...
... Theoretical analyses (Alexander et al., 2013) and real-world experiences (Brown et al., 2018;Dimitriou et al., 2011) indicate that it can be challenging to ramp up biomass supply at the rates found in modelling studies. Many of the time lags associated with the uptake of bioenergy cropping (Brown et al., 2019) relate to the role of land user behaviour in underpinning land use decision-making (Alexander et al., 2013). Behavioural processes and other institutional aspects are rarely included in land use models and IAMs and hence these models and scenarios may overestimate the possible rate of bioenergy deployment (Brown et al., 2019). ...
Article
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Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage. We review the literature on bioenergy use for climate change mitigation, including studies that use top‐down integrated assessment models or bottom‐up modelling, and studies that do not rely on modelling. We summarise the state of knowledge concerning potential co‐benefits and adverse side‐effects of bioenergy systems and discuss limitations of modelling studies used to analyse consequences of bioenergy expansion. The implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and how bioenergy alters energy systems and land use. Depending on previous land use, widespread deployment of monoculture plantations may contribute to mitigation but can cause negative impacts across a range of other sustainability criteria. Strategic integration of new biomass supply systems into existing agriculture and forest landscapes may result in less mitigation but can contribute positively to other sustainability objectives. There is considerable variation in evaluations of how sustainability challenges evolve as the scale of bioenergy deployment increases, due to limitations of existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence alternative uses of biomass and land. Integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms to enhance co‐benefits and minimize adverse side‐effects can reduce the risks of large‐scale deployment of bioenergy. Further, conservation and efficiency measures for energy, land and biomass can support greater flexibility in achieving climate change mitigation and adaptation.
... However, there are large uncertainties around the techno-economic viability and the environmental and social sustainability of large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) (Smith et al. 2016, Anderson & Peters 2016. These are particularly significant for the key CDR options of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) (Vaughan & Gough 2016) and forestry (Brown et al. 2019). Furthermore, there may be trade-offs between BECCS and forest-mitigation due to their land-use requirements. ...
... Uncertainties regarding the potential mitigation role of reforestation and afforestation include the availability of unforested or degraded forest land, the success of policies to incentivise or regulate land-use and land-use change, and forest carbon sequestration rates, which are affected by factors including landscape characteristics, species mix, management practices and changing climatic conditions (Bernal et al., 2018;Brown et al., 2019). Recent research examining these uncertainties indicates that due to GHG emissions arising from land-use change, afforestation could provide more effective carbon sequestration than growing dedicated crops for BECCS, but the knock-on impacts on the energy system must be considered for a full evaluation (Harper et al., 2018). ...
... Limiting global warming below 2 • C (or better 1.5 • C) over preindustrial levels represents a major challenge calling for policies able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions far beyond current trends and national voluntary pledges [1,2]. Policies to achieve this outcome can be roughly classified as value-or behaviour-based [3]. ...
... Closely linked to the problems experienced in many nudging experiments is the fact that they estimate the effectiveness of environmental policies through self-reported measures of environmental attitudes or behaviour, usually based on batteries of questionnaire items [34]. 1 Measures of environmental attitudes in surveys are known to only weakly predict the behaviour reported in the same studies [19][20][21][22][23], with effects that can be remarkably different depending on the target behaviour and its cost [37,38]. Even worse, self-reported and actual behaviour does not necessarily match in real-world settings [9,10]. ...
Article
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The relationship between environmental attitudes and behaviour is known to be weak, especially when these variables are measured as self-report items in surveys. In addition many environmental questions are highly polarised, making it even more problematic to use survey data to inform policy making. To better explore the attitude-behaviour gap in the context of environmental policies, along with its interaction with partisan identity, we ran an online experiment with 805 U.S. residents. Four key variables-environmental attitudes, self-reported environmental behaviour, observed environmental behaviour (in the form of carbon-offset credit purchase), and partisan identity-were measured, and their interactions in promoting pro-environmental behaviour were analysed. We found that (1) self-reported and real behaviour are almost uncorrelated and (2) partisan identity mainly predicted self-reported not actual environmental behaviour. These results suggest that policy-making needs to rely more on behavioural insight to test policies' actual effects and to promote real improvement of the local and global environment.
... However, it takes time to establish large areas of new forest. In addition to the time lag between forest establishment and GHG mitigation, especially pronounced when considering mitigation from commercial forest hierarchical value chains, there is a time lag in implementation of national afforestation policies owing to constrained planting rates 48 . Whilst sustainable intensification 3 and curtailed demand for livestock products 5,31,49 are projected to free up substantial land for afforestation in the UK and elsewhere over coming decades, our results reveal the urgency of commencing a programme of large-scale tree planting if afforestation is to significantly contribute to Paris Agreement targets for the second half of this century 1,48 . ...
... In addition to the time lag between forest establishment and GHG mitigation, especially pronounced when considering mitigation from commercial forest hierarchical value chains, there is a time lag in implementation of national afforestation policies owing to constrained planting rates 48 . Whilst sustainable intensification 3 and curtailed demand for livestock products 5,31,49 are projected to free up substantial land for afforestation in the UK and elsewhere over coming decades, our results reveal the urgency of commencing a programme of large-scale tree planting if afforestation is to significantly contribute to Paris Agreement targets for the second half of this century 1,48 . ...
Article
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Afforestation is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategy but the efficacy of commercial forestry is disputed. Here, we calculate the potential GHG mitigation of a UK national planting strategy of 30,000 ha yr ⁻¹ from 2020 to 2050, using dynamic life cycle assessment. What-if scenarios vary: conifer-broadleaf composition, harvesting, product breakouts, and decarbonisation of substituted energy and materials, to estimate 100-year GHG mitigation. Here we find forest growth rate is the most important determinant of cumulative mitigation by 2120, irrespective of whether trees are harvested. A national planting strategy of commercial forest could mitigate 1.64 Pg CO 2 e by 2120 (cumulative), compared with 0.54–1.72 Pg CO 2 e for planting only conservation forests, depending on species composition. Even after heavy discounting of future product substitution credits based on industrial decarbonisation projections, GHG mitigation from harvested stands typically surpasses unharvested stands. Commercial afforestation can deliver effective GHG mitigation that is robust to future decarbonisation pathways and wood uses.
... To make it likely (90% probability) to stay below 1.5°C would require multiplying the annual rate of decline by almost 30, and reaching close to global net zero by 2023. It is not too surprising that staying below 1.5°C would be so difficult, given that there is already estimated committed warming of 1.1°C [15][16][17][18] . The 2018 IPCC report on mitigation pathways compatible with staying below 1.5°C has also addressed the question of how this can be done 19 . ...
Article
Full-text available
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming by 2100 to below 2 °C, with 1.5 °C as a target. To that end, countries agreed to reduce their emissions by nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Using a fully statistically based probabilistic framework, we find that the probabilities of meeting their nationally determined contributions for the largest emitters are low, e.g. 2% for the USA and 16% for China. On current trends, the probability of staying below 2 °C of warming is only 5%, but if all countries meet their nationally determined contributions and continue to reduce emissions at the same rate after 2030, it rises to 26%. If the USA alone does not meet its nationally determined contribution, it declines to 18%. To have an even chance of staying below 2 °C, the average rate of decline in emissions would need to increase from the 1% per year needed to meet the nationally determined contributions, to 1.8% per year.
... Population growth and economic growth are the primary drivers of increasing climate altering emissions (IPCC, 2014a). As it stands, national climate change pledges are not enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (Brown et al., 2019), and mitigation scenarios that do reduce emissions consistent with this goal rely on widespread deployment of uncertain technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), which would likely have negative consequences for food production, biodiversity conservation and land rights (IPCC, 2018;Lenzi et al., 2018;Smith et al., 2016). Calls for comprehensive, integrated approaches, and arguments to address the primary drivers of anthropogenic climate change, are largely ignored (Bongaarts and O'Neill, 2018;Koch, 2015;Rosales, 2008;Stordalen et al., 2013). ...
... However, capturing such unexpected LULC changes in global LUM projections is nearly impossible. Still, in response to most policy interventions, work has suggested that transitions in land use across regions tend to occur rather smoothly and with time lags of years to few decades (i.e., spanning a notable part of our simulation period) due to delayed policy uptake (e.g., Brown et al., 2019). In this context, large-area and relatively rapid regional change rates could be assessed critically, such as (1) forest regrowth on pasture and cropland areas with more than a 40 % area change from 2000-2004 to 2036-2040 in southeastern South America (LUH1_45Aff) or entire subtropical Africa (LUH1_60Stab); (2) massive cropland increases exceeding a 40 % total area change, e.g., in southeastern South America and eastern Africa (MAg-PIE_ADAFF/BECCS and LUH2_SSP5-85); and (3) pasture expansion exceeding 20 % of the total area in tropical and subtropical Africa (e.g., IMAGE_BECCS, LUH2_SSP3-70). ...
Article
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Land-use models and integrated assessment models provide scenarios of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes following pathways or storylines related to different socioeconomic and environmental developments. The large diversity of available scenario projections leads to a recognizable variability in impacts on land ecosystems and the levels of services provided. We evaluated 16 projections of future LULC until 2040 that reflected different assumptions regarding socioeconomic demands and modeling protocols. By using these LULC projections in a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model, we simulated their effect on selected ecosystem service indicators related to ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration potential, agricultural production and the water cycle. We found that although a common trend for agricultural expansion exists across the scenarios, where and how particular LULC changes are realized differs widely across models and scenarios. They are linked to model-specific considerations of some demands over others and their respective translation into LULC changes and also reflect the simplified or missing representation of processes related to land dynamics or other influencing factors (e.g., trade, climate change). As a result, some scenarios show questionable and possibly unrealistic features in their LULC allocations, including highly regionalized LULC changes with rates of conversion that are contrary to or exceed rates observed in the past. Across the diverging LULC projections, we identified positive global trends of net primary productivity (+10.2 % ± 1.4 %), vegetation carbon (+9.2 % ± 4.1 %), crop production (+31.2 % ± 12.2 %) and water runoff (+9.3 % ± 1.7 %), and a negative trend of soil and litter carbon stocks (−0.5 % ± 0.4 %). The variability in ecosystem service indicators across scenarios was especially high for vegetation carbon stocks and crop production. Regionally, variability was highest in tropical forest regions, especially at current forest boundaries, because of intense and strongly diverging LULC change projections in combination with high vegetation productivity dampening or amplifying the effects of climatic change. Our results emphasize that information on future changes in ecosystem functioning and the related ecosystem service indicators should be seen in light of the variability originating from diverging projections of LULC. This is necessary to allow for adequate policy support towards sustainable transformations.
... By contrast, a sole focus on maximizing the efficiency of land resources for nutrition and carbon sequestration risks overlooking the diverse social and cultural roles of livestock systems. The need to provide for a 'just transition' for livestock farmers under ambitious climate policies remains underexplored in academic literature and policy [131][132][133][134]. ...
Article
Agriculture is the largest single source of global anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions, with ruminants the dominant contributor. Livestock CH 4 emissions are projected to grow another 30% by 2050 under current policies, yet few countries have set targets or are implementing policies to reduce emissions in absolute terms. The reason for this limited ambition may be linked not only to the underpinning role of livestock for nutrition and livelihoods in many countries but also diverging perspectives on the importance of mitigating these emissions, given the short atmospheric lifetime of CH 4 . Here, we show that in mitigation pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C, which include cost-effective reductions from all emission sources, the contribution of future livestock CH 4 emissions to global warming in 2050 is about one-third of that from future net carbon dioxide emissions. Future livestock CH 4 emissions, therefore, significantly constrain the remaining carbon budget and the ability to meet stringent temperature limits. We review options to address livestock CH 4 emissions through more efficient production, technological advances and demand-side changes, and their interactions with land-based carbon sequestration. We conclude that bringing livestock into mainstream mitigation policies, while recognizing their unique social, cultural and economic roles, would make an important contribution towards reaching the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and is vital for a limit of 1.5°C. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.
... Individual-level heterogeneity is, inevitably, very difficult to parameterise precisely, although participatory techniques have 300 some promise in this respect (Elsawah et al. 2015). Conversely, (constrained) optimising models like the IAP produce idealised results that may not replicate observed rates or spatial structures of land use change (Turner et al. 2018;Brown et al. 2019a;Low and Schäfer 2020), but can use flexible spatial dependencies as proxies for processes such as imitation, diffusion of knowledge or the formation of social norms (Meiyappan et al. 2014;Brown et al. 2018a). ...
Preprint
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Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.
... Presently, it is understood that this target requires net zero emissions by midcentury. Achieving this target will require substantial interventions that exceed what has already been committed (Brown et al., 2019;Schleussner et al., 2016). To the extent that some of these climate actions may interact with and adversely affect various aspects of human security and well-being (Campagnolo & Davide, 2019;Jakob & Steckel, 2014;Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018), there is a critical need to evaluate how patterns of armed conflict may be influenced by climate policy that is consistent with a 1.5 C goal (Buhaug, 2015;Dabelko et al., 2013;Scheffran et al., 2012). ...
Article
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Climate policies will need to incentivize transformative societal changes if they are to achieve emission reductions consistent with 1.5°C temperature targets. To contribute to efforts for aligning climate policy with broader societal goals, specifically those related to sustainable development, we identify the effects of climate mitigation policy on aspects of socioeconomic development that are known determinants of conflict and evaluate the plausibility and importance of potential pathways to armed conflict and political violence. Conditional on preexisting societal tensions and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, we isolate effects on economic performance, income and livelihood, food and energy prices, and land tenure as most likely to increase conflict risks. Climate policy designs may be critical to moderate these risks as different designs can promote more favorable societal outcomes such as equity and inclusion. Coupling research with careful monitoring and evaluation of the intermediate societal effects at early stages of policy implementation will be a critical part of learning and moderating potential conflict risks. Importantly, better characterizing the future conflict risks under climate policy allows for a more comprehensive comparison to the conflict risk if mitigation is not implemented and graver climate damages are experienced. This article is categorized under: • The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation Abstract Climate policies that emphasize a fair distribution of benefits and compensation for unintended consequences will moderate the risks of violent conflict and future climate impacts.
... 8,9 The underlying driver for the reduction in the carbon absorption capacity of land is the gradual modification for vegetation by human actions, 10 which severely constrains the expansion of terrestrial carbon sinks. 11,12 For meeting the needs of growing populations and diverse consumptions, human-managed land gradually expands, and this expansion usually comes at the cost of destroying native vegetation and soil, causing the carbon stored in them to be lost. 13,14 Prior research has focused on indicators related to land carbon loss for certain land types (e.g., cropland, forest land, grassland, and built-up land) 15−19 and land carbon loss for certain kinds of products (e.g., crops and livestock) from the production side, 20−22 while tracking responsible areas and commodities for land carbon loss from the consumption side has been slightly involved. ...
Article
One of the critical components in climate change mitigation lies in meeting the challenge of reducing global land carbon loss, as human demand increases. Yet, it is unclear which region and which form of commodity consumption were responsible for the greatest loss of land carbon. Here we assumed a uniform lifespan (20-year) for managed land and took the managed land in 2010 as a reference to estimate the land carbon loss for region-commodity on a global scale. The estimates and multi-region input-output table were then combined to identify the regions and commodities that contributed the most to global land carbon loss from the consumption side. The results show that during the lifespan, global consumption for agricultural and forestry commodities excluding wood fuel lost a total of 15.6 Pg in land carbon annually, of which 29% and 25% were attributed to beef and wood consumption, respectively. Land carbon loss per capita consumption was highest in high-income regions (Australia, the United States, Canada, Japan, and Europe) primarily due to the high consumed quantity for commodities per capita in these areas. Further, the net importers for land carbon were usually high-income regions (they held lower land carbon loss per unit of production), which was not conducive to reducing global land carbon loss. The research could contribute to discussions of climate responsibility and then inform climate mitigation policies.
... As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold at a staggering pace, CO 2 emissions are in for a sharp, if temporary, decline estimated at 7% of the 2019 annual emissions (Le Quéré et al. 2020;Carbon Brief 2020;Forster et al. 2020). Even if this reduction is substantial, it will not suffice to reach the 1.5 °C global temperature target of the 2015 Paris Conference of Parties Agreement (COP, Brown et al. 2019), as a reduction by 7.6% would be needed every year from today to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 (Sachs et al. 2016). Therefore, once the pandemic and ensuing economic lethargy are over, societies will need to make a crucial choice on how to reach the climate goals defined at the COP. ...
... Still, in response to most policy interventions, work has suggested that transitions in land use across regions tend to occur rather smoothly and with time lags of years to few decades (i.e. spanning a notable part of our simulation period) due to delayed policy uptake (e.g., Brown et al., 2019). In this context, large-area, and relatively rapid regional change rates could be assessed critically, such as (1) total area in tropical and subtropical Africa (e.g., IMAGE_BECCS, LUH2_SSP3-70). ...
Preprint
Full-text available
Land-use models and Integrated Assessment Models provide scenarios of land use/cover (LULC) changes following pathways or storylines related to different socio-economic and environmental developments. The large diversity of available scenario projections leads to a recognizable variability in impacts on land ecosystems and the levels of services provided. We evaluated 16 projections of future LULC until 2040 that reflected different assumptions on socio-economic demands and modeling protocols. By using these LULC projections in a state of the art dynamic global vegetation model, we simulated their effect on selected ecosystem service indicators related to ecosystem productivity and carbon sequestration potential, agricultural production and the water cycle. We found that although a common trend for agricultural expansion exists across the scenarios, where and how particular LULC changes are realized differs widely across models and scenarios. They are linked to model-specific considerations of some demands over others and their respective translation into LULC changes and also reflect the simplified or missing representation of processes related to land dynamics or other influencing factors (e.g., trade, climate change). As a result, some scenarios show questionable and possibly unrealistic features in their LULC allocations, including highly regionalized LULC changes with rates of conversion that are contrary to or exceeding rates observed in the past. Across the diverging LULC projections we identified positive global trends of net primary productivity (+10.2 %), vegetation carbon (+9.2 %), crop production (+31.2 %) and water runoff (+9.3 %), and a negative trend of soil and litter carbon stocks (−0.5 %). The variability in ecosystem service indicators across scenarios was especially high for vegetation carbon stocks (± 4.1 %) and crop production (± 12.2 %). Regionally, variability was highest in tropical forest regions, especially at current forest edges, because of intense and strongly diverging LULC change projections in combination with high vegetation productivity dampening or amplifying the effects of climatic change. Our results emphasize that information on future changes in ecosystem functioning and the related ecosystem service indicators should be seen in light of the variability originating from diverging projections of LULC. This is necessary to allow for adequate policy support towards sustainable transformations.
... However, the decision-making process is itself messy and difficult to predict, depending as it does on the context, on the individuals involved (with their conscious and unconscious biases), on the breadth of values attributed to nature (including non-quantifiable ones), on the efficient exchange of knowledge between science and policy, and on time lags in policy implementation. 174 Decision-making is often disorganized and politicized, and has to deal with many trade-offs, as well as co-benefits, making it difficult to generalize about how uncertainty in scenarios and models affects decisionmaking processes. There is a significant body of work in decision theory and operations research on dealing with epistemic uncertainty in decision-making. ...
Article
There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from “stylized” approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social phenomena is fundamental in understanding the functioning of nature on a human-dominated planet. There is no panacea for dealing with uncertainty, but several approaches to evaluating uncertainty are still not routinely applied in scenario modeling, and this is becoming increasingly unacceptable. However, it is important to avoid uncertainties becoming an excuse for inaction in decision-making when facing environmental challenges.
... Nonetheless, consistently low scores highlight that targets for enhancing biodiversity in consumption and production should be clearly incorporated into the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) post-2020 global biodiversity framework to encourage countries to take action for safeguarding agrobiodiversity by making better use of the vast number of species and varieties available for human consumption 22 . Commitments and actions to enhance agrobiodiversity need to be taken early on because they will take time to translate into changes in status due to political, social and ecological contexts 43 . ...
Article
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The diversity of plants, animals and microorganisms that directly or indirectly support food and agriculture is critical to achieving healthy diets and agroecosystems. Here we present the Agrobiodiversity Index (based on 22 indicators), which provides a monitoring framework and informs food systems policy. Agrobiodiversity Index calculations for 80 countries reveal a moderate mean agrobiodiversity status score (56.0 out of 100), a moderate mean agrobiodiversity action score (47.8 out of 100) and a low mean agrobiodiversity commitment score (21.4 out of 100), indicating that much stronger commitments and concrete actions are needed to enhance agrobiodiversity across the food system. Mean agrobiodiversity status scores in consumption and conservation are 14–82% higher in developed countries than in developing countries, while scores in production are consistently low across least developed, developing and developed countries. We also found an absence of globally consistent data for several important components of agrobiodiversity, including varietal, functional and underutilized species diversity.
... Global temperatures are expected to increase approximately 0.2°C per decade over the next thirty years, and this rise in temperature is forecasted to affect crop productivity (Bailey-Serres et al. 2019). Reduction in freshwater availability and shrinking of biodiversity have already altered crop growth as exemplified by yield reduction in affected regions (Keesing et al. 2010;Brown et al. 2019). Such changes are not uniformly distributed around the world. ...
... Even under the most optimistic scenarios, decarbonization is not likely to occur quickly enough to mitigate the effects of system inertia and lags caused by factors including committed warming from previous emissions (see below), the delayed impacts of existing warming (e.g., Samset et al., 2020;Brown et al., 2019), the time required to develop and deploy new technologies (e.g., Åhman, 2020), and cultural and political inertia and resistance (Michaelowa et al., 2018). The masking effect of anthropogenic air pollution also lowers global mean surface temperatures by 0.7 • C (Lelieveld et al., 2019), although temperature increases from removing aerosols could be partially moderated by the simultaneous reduction of tropospheric ozone and methane. ...
Article
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The Paris targets are based on assumptions that a global temperature increase of 1.5°C - 2°C above preindustrial levels will be safe, and that the climate can be stabilized at these higher temperatures. However, global average temperatures are already measurably impacting the Earth’s systems at 1.2°C above preindustrial levels. Many human and environmental systems cannot adapt to higher temperatures, which may exceed critical tipping points in physical climate and ecological systems. Compounding these risks is the likelihood that the international 2°C limit will be overshot due to political obstacles and systemic inertia from existing greenhouse gases, warming oceans, and the decades required to replace existing infrastructure. Moreover, the Earth energy imbalance may have to be reduced to approximately zero to stabilize the global climate (i.e., CO2 concentrations lowered to around 350 ppm.) Most IPCC mitigation scenarios assume that climate targets will be temporarily overshot, and require large-scale carbon dioxide removal [CDR] to subsequently lower temperatures. However, many CDR methods may not be politically and/or technologically feasible, and they will act too slowly to prevent dangerous overshoot. These issues raise serious doubts about the ability of current mitigation polices to ensure safe outcomes. They also indicate the need to investigate whether rapid climate cooling measures may be required to reduce the risks associated with high temperatures during the long time it will take to decarbonize the global economy and stabilize the climate. Given the uncertainty of future mitigation success, and the potentially existential costs of failure, there is now an urgent need to examine whether or not current efforts are credible, and if not, what mitigation measures will be required to prevent dangerous overshoot and ensure a safe, stable climate. In order to develop a feasible mitigation strategy, it will be necessary to prioritize research both on climate overshoot risks, and on the relative effectiveness, risks, costs and timelines of potential mitigation and adaptation approaches. Since large scale climate interventions will be needed to prevent dangerous global warming, all plausible options need to be investigated, including carbon dioxide removal methods and technologies for rapidly cooling global temperatures. This research is a prerequisite for evaluating the comparative benefits, costs and risks of using, or not using, various forms of mitigation and adaptation, and then developing a realistic overshoot risk management plan.
... Despite the long-term implications for ecosystem C loss, our results suggest that existing and regenerating forests can continue to act as a C sink in the coming decades with a <5% divergence in regional C stocks due to climate change before 2050. Such terrestrial sinks may be critical to achieving reductions in atmospheric C in the coming decades (Brown et al., 2019), but continued warming and drying beyond 2050 could eliminate the GYE and regions with similar forests as a long-term C sink. ...
Article
1. The effects of changing climate and disturbance on mountain forest carbon stocks vary with tree species distributions and over elevational gradients. Warming can increase carbon uptake by stimulating productivity at high elevations but also enhance carbon release by increasing respiration and the frequency, intensity, and size of wildfires. 2. To understand the consequences of climate change for temperate mountain forests, we simulated interactions among climate, wildfire, tree species, and their combined effects on regional carbon stocks in forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA with the LANDIS‐II landscape change model. Simulations used historical climate and future potential climate represented by downscaled projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) that bracket the range of variability under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. 3. Total ecosystem carbon increased by 67% through 2100 in simulations with historical climate, and by 38 – 69% with GCM climate. Differences in carbon uptake among GCMs resulted primarily from variation in area burned, not productivity. Warming increased productivity by extending the growing season, especially near upper treeline, but did not offset biomass losses to fire. By 2100, simulated area burned increased by 27 – 215% under GCM climate, with the largest increases after 2050. With warming >3 °C in mean annual temperature, the increased frequency of large fires reduced live carbon stocks by 4 – 36% relative to the control, historical climate scenario. However, relative losses in total carbon were delayed under GCMs with large increases in summer precipitation and buffered by carbon retained in soils and the wood of fire‐killed trees. Increasing fire size limited seed dispersal, and reductions in soil moisture limited seedling establishment; both effects will likely constrain long‐term forest regeneration and carbon uptake. 4. Synthesis.Forests in the GYE can maintain a carbon sink through the mid‐century in a warming climate but continued warming may cause the loss of forest area, live aboveground biomass, and ultimately, ecosystem carbon. Future changes in carbon stocks in similar forests throughout western North America will depend on regional thresholds for extensive wildfire and forest regeneration and therefore, changes may occur earlier in drier regions.
... Global temperatures are expected to increase approximately 0.2°C per decade over the next thirty years, and this rise in temperature is forecasted to affect crop productivity (Bailey-Serres et al. 2019). Reduction in freshwater availability and shrinking of biodiversity have already altered crop growth as exemplified by yield reduction in affected regions (Keesing et al. 2010;Brown et al. 2019). Such changes are not uniformly distributed around the world. ...
Chapter
Castor, Ricinus communis, is one of the top ten oil crops in the world. It has been paid more and more attention because of its high economic value. In the process of growth and development, it is subjected to a variety of abiotic stresses from the environment. In this chapter, the stresses on castor are discussed in consideration of heat tolerances, cold tolerance, drought tolerance, flooding and submergence tolerance, nutrient use efficiency, water use efficiency, salt-alkali stress and metal ion toxicity. It is suggested that more attention should be paid to the physiological adaptation mechanisms of castor to these stresses.
... Over the last three decades, the scientific community and policymakers have made strides to reduce the anthropogenic effects of climate change on various natural and socio-economic systems globally (IPCC, 2014). However, mitigation efforts are not currently meeting carbon reduction goals (Brown et al., 2019), furthering the importance of climate readiness by all sectors (Paas, 2016). Only in the past decade have a small but increasing number of studies and policies begun to address climate adaptation of historic buildings and other built heritage (e.g., Fatori� c and Seekamp, 2017a; Leissner et al., 2015;Rockman et al., 2016;Sabbioni et al., 2010;Sesana et al., 2019;UNESCO, 2008). 1 Climate adaptation of historic buildings aims to reduce the damage or optimize opportunities associated with current or potential future climate change impacts (IPCC, 2014). ...
Article
Cultural heritage-specific research is scarce within the climate change literature and climate change policy documents, challenging climate adaptation efforts to minimize adverse impacts on cultural heritage. Engaging and assessing diverse stakeholders' values and integrating those with evidence-based knowledge is critical for timely, effective and transparent preservation and climate adaptation of coastal cultural heritage. This study assessed technical experts' and community groups' opinions about the importance of value-based prioritization considerations to provide more immediate guidance adaptation planning and decision making. The findings from four separate elicitation surveys demonstrated substantial consistency in value-based climate adaptation prior-itization preferences for one type of vulnerable cultural heritage: historic buildings in coastal zones in the United States. In particular, the samples of cultural heritage professionals and members of community groups consistently rated spatial importance, uniqueness, and scientific value of historic buildings as very important considerations for climate adaptation prioritization decision-making. Also, consistently evaluated but of relatively low importance were considerations related to the cost of preservation and adaptation treatments, including previous investments. Few statistically significant differences were found among our samples in their perceptions of importance. These findings provide initial guidance to cultural heritage managers, particularly those with scarce financial resources to allocate for adapting coastal historic buildings, and demonstrate the need for continued development of approaches that provide rapid assessment of coastal heritage stakeholders' adaptation priorities.
... Accordingly, the implementation of carbon capture projects must be informed by realistic system-or context-specific prescriptions, which we currently lack. For example, there is insufficient regional differentiation of socioecological histories and conflicts, which can amplify climate change (e.g., Berhe 2022), and recommendation of best practices for managed and unmanaged systems, where time lags in carbon-climate feedbacks can make it difficult to discern the benefits and costs of carbon capture projects (e.g., Brown et al. 2019). ...
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The unfolding climate crisis is in many respects a human issue, one caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere, and that can only be solved through a concerted effort across all sectors of society. In this prospective synthesis, I explain how expanding the scope of biogeochemical research would lead to a more rigorous and impactful climate change mitigation and adaptation agenda. Focusing on biogeochemistry as an area of interdisciplinary convergence, I review theories and empirical studies in the environmental and social sciences, to distill five principles and three phases of implementation for sustainable carbon capture projects. I discuss how land conservation, management, and restoration might be coordinated to prepare for climate change and to achieve multiple social and ecological benefits, including enhanced carbon drawdown and permanence on land. On the conservation front, the abundance of threatened plant and animal species spatially correlates with the distribution of carbon- and water-rich habitats within and across key regions, which can be prioritized for biodiversity protection with major climatic benefits. On the management front, long-term records of socioecological change warrant a revision of current models for sustainable forestry and agriculture in favor of decentralized system-specific prescriptions, including interventions where organic or inorganic carbon capture may improve wood and food production under future climate scenarios. On the restoration front, experiments in degraded landscapes reveal mechanisms of carbon stabilization, such as iron-coordination of organic complexes, which amplify the benefits of ecological succession and lead to carbon accumulation beyond thresholds predicted for undisturbed ecosystems. These examples illustrate the potential for innovation at the intersection of basic and applied biogeoscience, which could accelerate atmospheric carbon capture through new discoveries and collective action.
... Large-scale land acquisitions by significant investors do not always meet an entire population's needs, as the local availability of a critical food production factor may deteriorate due to the land acquisition (Marselis et al. 2017). Given the impending depletion of agricultural land resources, the urgency of effective agricultural land management appears even greater today (Vermeulen et al. 2018;Brown et al. 2019). Agricultural landscapes have been transformed over the last five decades as a result of economic and social development (Lambin & Geist 2003;Walker 2004;Wright 2005;. ...
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Canggu Village is primarily a development zone with the potential for rapid growth. Canggu possesses tourism potential as well as ecological conditions conducive to future growth. The rapid growth of the population, followed by development activities, will increase demand for space, particularly in areas with a high strategic value of land, such as tourism areas. Tourism is still regarded as a stimulant to the economy. However, if space development is not adequately managed and controlled, it will affect the conversion of land functions, particularly agricultural land, into built-up areas for commercialization. A study effort is required to map the characteristics and deviation patterns of agricultural land use in Canggu to achieve spatial order. By mapping the characteristics and deviation patterns of agricultural land use in Canggu Village, it is hoped that appropriate actions or solutions to Canggu Village's ecological problems can be compiled and developed.
... In actual situations, the properties of the plots and the interactions between different land uses are different in space and time, but the current research lacks an in-depth discussion on this [106]. On the one hand, it is necessary to improve the assessment of the time lag inherent in developing land system policies, management changes, and feedback dynamics [107]. On the other hand, the temporal variability and accumulation of landrelated parameters need to be fully understood and quantified, and a spatial configuration model over time should be constructed [108]. ...
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Due to high-intensity human disturbance and rapid climate change, optimizing the spatial pattern of land use has become a pivotal path to restoring ecosystem functions and realizing the sustainable development of human–land relationships. This review uses the literature analysis method combined with CiteSpace to determine current research progress and frontiers, challenges, and directions for further improvement in this field. The main conclusions include the following: (a) research on the optimization of spatial pattern of land use has transformed from pattern description orientation to sustainable development orientation to ecological restoration orientation. Its research paradigm has changed from pattern to function to well-being; (b) the research frontier mainly includes spatial pattern of land use that takes into account the unity of spatial structure and functional attributes, the ecological mechanism and feedback effect of change in spatial pattern of land, the theoretical framework and model construction of land use simulation and prediction based on multiple disciplines and fields, and the adaptive management of sustainable land use in the context of climate change; (c) based on current research challenges, we integrate the research on landscape ecology and ecosystem service flows to develop an “element sets–network structure–system functions–human well-being” conceptual model. We also propose the strengthening of future research on theoretical innovation, spatiotemporal mechanism selection, causal emergence mechanism, the transformation threshold, and uncertainty. We provide innovative ideas for achieving sustainable management of land systems and territorial spatial planning with the aim of improving the adaptability of land use spatial optimization. This is expected to strengthen the ability of land systems to cope with ecological security and climate risks.
... Most importantly, assessments of global CDR prospects (Hepburn et al., 2019;Minx et al., 2018;Turner et al., 2018) suggest that the scale of modelled CDR would seem highly improbable without major contributions from both land-use change and CCS. Given others have already suggested those same rates of required land-use change seem unrealistic (Brown et al., 2019;Turner et al., 2018), we can emphasise the burden of expectation placed on CCS. ...
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This paper puts forward two claims about funding carbon capture and storage. The first claim is that there are moral justifications supporting strategic investment into CO 2 storage from global and regional perspectives. One argument draws on the empirical evidence which suggests carbon capture and storage would play a significant role in a portfolio of global solutions to climate change; the other draws on Rawls’ notion of legitimate expectations and Moellendorf’s Anti-Poverty principle. The second claim is that where to pursue this strategic investment poses a morally non-trivial problem, with considerations like near-term global distributive justice and undermining legitimate expectations favouring investing in developing regions, especially in Asia, and considerations like long-term climate impacts and best uses of resources favouring investing in the relatively wealthy regions that have the best prospects for successful storage development.
... Global temperatures are expected to increase approximately 0.2°C per decade over the next thirty years, and this rise in temperature is forecasted to affect crop productivity (Bailey-Serres et al. 2019). Reduction in freshwater availability and shrinking of biodiversity have already altered crop growth as exemplified by yield reduction in affected regions (Keesing et al. 2010;Brown et al. 2019). Such changes are not uniformly distributed around the world. ...
Chapter
Brassica species were domesticated as oil producing crops during different periods at many sites throughout the world. Animal fat being pricier, the poor used vegetable oil as a source of their nutrition. Accordingly, world production of vegetable oil has been incremental chiefly due to increased production of soybean, palm and oilseed rape. Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.), also known as Canola or Oilseed rape, has thus become an important source of vegetable oil worldwide, and ranks third after soybean and palm. The world population is expected to cross the 9 billion mark by 2050, and to assure food and nutritional security for our soaring future generations, we need to necessarily double the production of food crops by then. However, various environmental stresses negate the realization of this target. Rapeseed thrives very well in countries of the northern hemisphere of the planet having cool and humid climates, making it a very important oil- and protein-crop, since no other crop can produce such high yields of both oil and protein under these climatic conditions. In the coming decades, it has the potential of achieving the rank numero uno as the cheapest source of nutritious vegetable oil for the impoverished of the world. Nevertheless, it is prone to various abiotic stresses which not only affect normal growth rate of the plant but also decrease crop productivity by alarming proportions. It is, therefore, imperative to develop new stress tolerant varieties having higher productivity and better adaptation to the abiotic stresses abounding because of climate change. This chapter summarizes the various abiotic stresses afflicting rapeseed; the classical, genetic and molecular approaches that have been employed for breeding for abiotic stress tolerance, together with biotechnological and synthetic biology research breakthroughs aimed at creating abiotic stress-resistant climate-resilient varieties. The combination of classical and molecular breeding, being assisted by integrated omics and genome editing breakthroughs, can lead to speed up breeding of the crop and alter the rate of production of rapeseed worldwide, making it feasible to achieve the target of being number one in meeting the demands for vegetable oil of a soaring population.Keywords Brassica napus Oilseed rapeRapeseedCanolaAbiotic stressTemperature stressDrought stressSalt stress
... Technological advances such as soil improvement, agricultural mechanization, and genetic improvement of crops can trigger profound and rapid changes in the way land is used and the spatial distribution of land uses (28). Complex interactions driven by positive feedbacks can lead to abrupt changes, while negative feedbacks and time lags can strongly hinder or slow other land system changes, creating stability that can be desirable or undesirable (30). Examples of negative feedbacks are poverty traps that maintain households in low agricultural productivity systems (31,32) or public subsidies that may improve resilience of agriculture to market (commodity price volatility) or environmental (e.g., extreme weather events) stressors and shocks but may also hinder needed systemic transformations (33). ...
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Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits—"win–wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use.
... Even though advancements in crop sciences improved agricultural yields, the rate of demanddriven by a swelling population with a penchant for animal-source foodsis projected to exceed both the rate of crop production 92 , as well as the rate of agricultural intensification. 93,94,95 The necessity to substantially improve the system of agriculture features in literature often 96,97 , and yet, yields intensificationa "more of the same" approachcontinues to serve the foremost strategy to ensure food security. 98,99,100,101,102,103,104,105,106,107,108,109 To prevent global catastrophic risks (GCRs) and humanitarian crises, systemic interventions should be reevaluated, and the system of agriculture overhauled. ...
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The global system of food and agriculture is constrained by finite resources, it is prone to operational instability, it fails to prevent famine and micronutrient deficiencies, and it is a prime contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and ecosystems collapse. If left unattended, the system may engender further global catastrophic risks (GCRs). However, interventions employed by the food science, technology and policy communities are ineffective, if not counterproductive. Incremental modifications to the system will neither achieve food security nor avoid ecological degradation. This paper draws on primary and secondary sources, expert interviews and system dynamics models, to analyze and illustrate how the food system is organized and functions in self-undermining, self-debilitating dynamics, disrupting yields and supply chains, and resulting in GCRs. Based on this analysis, and informed by system dynamics literature, a set of interventions is proposed with the potential to mitigate the triple ecological-nutritional-social risks engendered by modern food and agriculture.
... The effects of climate change include the increase in average temperature of the earth as well as extreme weather events both in terms of their frequency and severity (Field et al. 2012). Many studies suggest that the target to limit global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C is very unlikely to be achieved (Brown et al. 2019;Davis et al. 2010;Raftery et al. 2017). Thus, the call for adaptation efforts has been increasing in recognition of a changing climate, a continuing rise in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, and a severe setback in mitigating GHG emissions (de Coninck et al. 2018). ...
Article
Road infrastructure is engineered to perform through constant exposure to climatological stressors. Due to climate change in particular, expected rises in the average ambient and extreme temperatures, pavement performance might deviate from what was originally predicted at the design stage. This poses serious risks to the long-term performance of this infrastructure because the capacity of a transportation network to provide an acceptable level of service over the period that it was intended for is also seriously affected. However , identifying where potential risks are greatest and where more involved planning and prioritizing is needed is hampered by the lack of vulnerability assessment methods that appropriately integrate failure pathways and engineering decisions. In this study, a new vulnerability index is proposed-extent of pavement grade reliability loss (E PGRL), which has the capacity to capture both flexible pavement performance and transportation serviceability. The index is based on two assumptions. First, flexible pavement performance is directly related to the inherent rheological properties of the asphalt binder, which can be estimated from the performance binder grade requirements for a locale. Second, the level of service of a road network can be represented by its connectivity, expressed here by a network centrality measure, the betweenness score. Two developing countries, Colombia and India, were selected to analyze the capabilities of the E PGRL. The results obtained indicate the E PGRL captures the available performance capability of pavement infrastructure together with the importance of transportation network elements. Hence, it can be used as a tool to evaluate and quantify the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to future climate change.
... This realisation is strengthened by the acknowledgement that many mitigation measures taken by participating countries are inevitably subject to implementation delays. This means it is even more unlikely the Paris agreement can be reached with mitigation strategies alone (Brown et al., 2019). ...
... In May 2019, the monthly average concentration of CO 2 in the global atmosphere reached 414.7 (ppm), a new record since human observations began in 1958 and higher than the highest recorded in the past 23 Ma (Cui et al. 2020). 1 Many greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to various environmental and ecological problems such as global average temperature increase, glacier melting, sealevel rise, and frequent extreme weather (Hu and Shi 2021). In 2015, the Paris Agreement explicitly proposed strengthening global solutions to the threats posed by climate change by limiting the global average temperature increase to 2.0 °C compared to the pre-industrial period and aiming to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C (Brown et al. 2019). Numerous lines of evidence reveal that carbon emissions from human fossil energy use are a direct source of atmospheric carbon enrichment within the Earth's carbon cycle system (Sun et al. 2021a;Yang et al. 2021a). ...
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With the deterioration of environmental quality caused by fossil energy use, the research on energy internet and energy misallocation is of critical relevance to achieve low-carbon sustainable development. However, we find that the relevant research that analyzes energy internet and energy misallocation on carbon emissions under the same framework is ignored. For this purpose, the generalized method of moments (GMM), panel threshold model, and spatial analysis (deviation ellipse, hotspot analysis, and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR)) model were applied to investigate the impact of energy internet and energy misallocation on carbon emissions using panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018. The major statistical results include the following: (1) energy misallocation significantly contributes to carbon emissions, while energy internet inhibits carbon emissions. Energy internet can negatively moderate the positive effect of energy misallocation on carbon emissions. (2) The effect of energy misallocation on carbon emissions reveals an inverted “U-shaped” characteristic of first promoting and later inhibiting, but the inhibiting effect is insignificant. Moreover, the marginal effect of energy misallocation on carbon emissions decreases when the energy internet crosses the second thresholds consecutively, while the marginal effect of the energy internet on carbon emissions shows an inverted “N” shape. (3) Compared with the under-allocated regions, the promotion effect of energy misallocation on carbon emissions and the inhibitory effect of energy internet on carbon emissions are stronger in the over-allocated regions, while the energy internet has a more significant negative moderating effect on energy misallocation. (4) The gravity center of China’s carbon emissions gradually shifts to the northwest with time. The longitude of the gravity center (east–west direction) changes greatly, while the latitude of the gravity center (north–south direction) changes less. Besides, the carbon emission hotspot regions centered on Shanxi spread to the neighboring provinces, which form a high-high agglomeration region, and the cold spot region dominated by Qinghai, Guangxi, and Guangdong forms low-low agglomeration characteristics. Finally, the GTWR model shows that the impact of energy internet and energy misallocation on carbon emissions shows significant hierarchical, banded, or block-like characteristics in spatial distribution.
... There is growing concern that the implementation of political agreements on climate change and biodiversity will not be enough to protect forests in the short run and up to the end of the 21st century (Brown et al. 2019). Looking at the current trend of carbon emissions, we are on the path to +3°C global temperature increase since the beginning of the industrial revolution, far from the goals set by the Paris agreement in 2015 (Plumer and Popovich 2018). ...
Article
There is growing concern that the implementation of political agreements on climate change and biodiversity will not be enough to protect forests in the short run and up to the end of the 21st century. As mitigation efforts are lagging behind self-imposed, reasonable targets, genetic diversity will have a large and significant part to play in the process of adapting forests to climate change. Genetic diversity, the raw material of evolution, can be used for adaptation by natural selection and artificial breeding, in naturally regenerated and plantation forests alike. The 2-day scientific conference: “#rescueforests: Genetics to the rescue - Managing forests sustainably in a changing world,” addressed the genetic diversity of forests. More specifically, the conference was about natural as well as assisted adaptive processes, their spatial scale, from fine grain to landscape and ecoregions, and how much of the genome it involves. It also dealt with phenotypes and how much of their variation is determined by underlying genetic diversity. And finally, and perhaps most importantly, the conference emphasized the importance of conservation and sustainable use of this genetic diversity as a nature-based solution to adapt under the fast pace of climate change. The conference demonstrated how improved knowledge on genomic diversity and evolutionary mechanisms can help to rescue forests, either naturally or by means of management.
Article
Achieving food and nutrition security for all in a changing and globalized world remains a critical challenge of utmost importance. The development of solutions benefits from insights derived from modelling and simulating the complex interactions of the agri-food system, which range from global to household scales and transcend disciplinary boundaries. A wide range of models based on various methodologies (from food trade equilibrium to agent-based) seek to integrate direct and indirect drivers of change in land use, environment and socio-economic conditions at different scales. However, modelling such interaction poses fundamental challenges, especially for representing non-linear dynamics and adaptive behaviours. We identify key pieces of the fragmented landscape of food security modelling, and organize achievements and gaps into different contextual domains of food security (production, trade, and consumption) at different spatial scales. Building on in-depth reflection on three core issues of food security – volatility, technology, and transformation – we identify methodological challenges and promising strategies for advancement. We emphasize particular requirements related to the multifaceted and multiscale nature of food security. They include the explicit representation of transient dynamics to allow for path dependency and irreversible consequences, and of household heterogeneity to incorporate inequality issues. To illustrate ways forward we provide good practice examples using meta-modelling techniques, non-equilibrium approaches and behavioural-based modelling endeavours. We argue that further integration of different model types is required to better account for both multi-level agency and cross-scale feedbacks within the food system.
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Natural hazards, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly affect societies worldwide. The accelerating risks entail that private adaptation complement more traditional public climate change adaptation measures. Culture plays an important role in framing how individuals experience hazards and behave toward them. Yet, empirical research explicitly measuring whether and how climate change adaptation varies across cultures is lacking. To address this gap, we collect meta-analytic data on factors motivating individual flooding adaptation from 25 countries and more than 50 publications. Employing Hofstede's Cultural Rankings as a metric of national culture, we model the effect of culture on adaptation motivation of individual households using meta-regression analysis. We find a number of statistically significant relationships between culture and factors motivating private climate change adaptation. Hence, cultural context is vital to consider when designing and implementing climate change adaptation policies, simulating the uptake of individual hazard prevention measures, or integrating private adaptation in assessing costs of climate change in integrated assessment models. These findings are among the first to provide empirical evidence on the interaction effects between culture and private climate change adaptation motivation.
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A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.
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The concept of environmental violence (EV) explains the harm that humanity is inflicting upon itself through our pollution emissions. This book argues that EV is present, active, and expanding at alarming rates in the contemporary human niche and in the Earth system. It explains how EV is produced and facilitated by the same inequalities that it creates and reinforces, and suggests that the causes can be attributed to a relatively small portion of the human population and to a fairly circumscribed set of behaviours. While the causes of EV are complex, the author makes this complexity manageable to ensure interventions are more readily discernible. The EV-model developed is both a theoretical concept and an analytical tool, substantiated with rigorous social and environmental scientific evidence, and designed with the intention to help disrupt the cycle of violence with effective policies and real change.
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Global mean surface temperature is increasing rapidly and climate target overshoot with irreversible, catastrophic impacts is probably unavoidable with current policies. Despite this, there is a significant scientific gap in readiness to rapidly reduce warming risks if required. Although large-scale climate geoengineering measures could potentially mitigate dangerous overshoot, their feasibility and safety is unknown. Our article provides a comprehensive overview of the latest science; explains why both climate overshoot and mitigation risks have been gravely underestimated; argues for prioritising international research on the comparative risks and costs of all potential options for preventing dangerous climate change, and outlines the requirements for a viable risk management plan.
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The idea that human impacts on natural systems might trigger large‐scale, social–ecological ‘crises’ or ‘breakdowns’ is attracting increasing scientific, societal and political attention, but the risks of such crises remain hard to assess or ameliorate. Social–ecological systems have complex dynamics, with bifurcations, nonlinearities and tipping points all emerging from the interaction of multiple human and natural processes. Computational modelling is a key tool in understanding these processes and their effects on system resilience. However, models that operate over large geographical extents often rely on assumptions such as economic equilibrium and optimisation in social–economic systems, and mean‐field or trend‐based behaviour in ecological systems, which limit the simulation of crisis dynamics. Alternative forms of modelling focus on simulating local‐scale processes that underpin the dynamics of social–ecological systems. Recent improvements in data resources and computational tools mean that such modelling is now technically feasible across large geographical extents. We consider the contributions that the different types of model can make to simulating social–ecological crises. While no models are able to predict exact outcomes in complex social–ecological systems, we suggest that one new approach with substantial promise is hybrid modelling that uses existing model architectures to isolate and understand key processes, revealing risks and associated uncertainties of crises emerging. We outline convergent and efficient functional descriptions of social and ecological systems that can be used to develop such models, data resources that can support them, and possible ‘high‐level’ processes that they can represent. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
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Structural trapping is known to be the primary storage mechanism in geological carbon sequestration (GCS), where the injected CO2 rises upwards due to buoyancy forces and becomes trapped under an ultra‐low permeability layer. Although it is relatively common in GCS studies to assume a planar caprock for the synthesised models, in a real scenario this is not always the case as the caprock might exhibit some small‐ or large‐scale topography changes. Moreover, little is known about the impact of the caprock morphology on the CO2 plume migration and the storage capacity. In this work, we performed a preliminary study of the effects of boundary conditions on the CO2 plume migration and dissolution. This was performed because most of the case study models which are employed for GCS studies are part of larger reservoirs. The obtained results were used in the simulation models of the second part of the work, to model an infinite‐acting reservoir appropriately. Three different volume modifier values of 10⁵, 10⁷ and 10⁹ were considered on either one side or both sides of the reservoir for both horizontal and tilted caprock models. The CO2 dissolution in the tilted models was seen to be higher once the multiplier was on the opposite side of the slope. Horizontal models closed on one side (closed faults, salt walls, etc.) were also found to exhibit more significant dissolution than models which were open from both sides. We subsequently investigated the impact of caprock morphology on the CO2 plume advancement and its structural and dissolution trapping mechanisms by performing numerical simulations on nine synthetic models. The dissolution and migration distance are seen to be at a maximum for tilted reservoirs, where the CO2 has more space to migrate upwards and to interact with more formation water. The lowest dissolution occurred where the significant portion of the injected CO2 was trapped in a sand ridge or an anticline. Moreover, the possibility and also the amount of structural trapping was evaluated using an analytical method, and the results showed a fair match with the ones from the numerical simulation. We believe that this methodology could be applied for site screening prior to performing numerical simulations. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Even though enormous expectations for greenhouse gas mitigation in the land use sector exist at the same time worries about potential implications for sustainable development have been raised as many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are closely tied to developments in the sector. Here we assess the implications of achieving selected key SDG indicators for Zero Hunger, Clean Water and Sanitation, Responsible Consumption and Production, and Life on Land on the land-based climate change mitigation potential. We find that protecting highly biodiverse ecosystems has profound impacts on biomass potentials (−30% at >12 US dollar per gigajoule) while other SDGs mainly affect greenhouse gas abatement potentials. Achieving SDGs delivers synergies with greenhouse gas abatement and may even in the absence of additional mitigation policies allow to realize up to 25% of the expected greenhouse gas abatement from land use required to stay on track with the 1.5 °C target until 2050. Future land use mitigation policies should consider and take advantage of these synergies across SDGs.
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Landscape fire regimes are created through socio-ecological processes, yet in current global models the representation of anthropogenic impacts on fire regimes is restricted to simplistic functions derived from coarse measures such as GDP and population density. As a result, fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have limited ability to reproduce observed patterns of fire, and limited prognostic value. At the heart of this challenge is a failure to represent human agency and decision-making related to fire. This paper outlines progress towards a global behavioural model that captures the categorical differences in human fire use and management that arise from diverse land use objectives under varying socio-ecological contexts. We present a modelled global spatiotemporal distribution of what we term ‘land-fire systems’ (LFSs), a classification that combines land use systems and anthropogenic fire regimes. Our model simulates competition between LFSs with a novel bootstrapped classification tree approach that performs favourably against reference multinomial regressions. We evaluate model outputs with the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) framework and find good overall agreement. We discuss limitations to our methods, as well as remaining challenges to the integration of behavioural modelling in DGVMs and associated model-intercomparison protocols.
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In many transitional economies all over the world, government and state land agencies continue to intervene in agricultural land market. For example, in post-socialist countries, the frequent legal changes have been affecting i.e. the structure of agricultural land ownership and area of agricultural holdings. The main purpose of this article is to suggest a research method to investigate the influence of legal instruments on the process of transformation of state-owned agricultural land and then to test the applicability of this method in a selected area. Because legal regulations affect various spheres of life, and such effects can be measured on different scales or in different ranges, the dynamics indicator used in this study serves an adequate tool for studying and comparing changes occurring over time. Additionally, the graphical analysis allowed to compare the observed developments. The analyses carried out for the exemplary post-socialist European country - Poland as a whole country and for every province as well showed that the actual impact of legal regulations on agrarian changes is different in areas which are different spatially and environmentally. In further research the influence of the government intervention should be also considered along with legal regulations concerning private sector.
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Flax is a self-pollinated crop widely cultivated for fiber and oilseed production. Poor rooting system architecture and abiotic stresses such as drought, extreme temperature, salt, and cadmium accumulation can significantly affect the growth of flax, resulting in severe production losses. As such, improving the root system of flax cultivars and increasing their resistance or tolerance to abiotic stresses are important to achieve sustainable flax production. In recent years, substantial progress has been made towards the generation of flax genomic resources. Reduced cost of high-throughput sequencing has fueled the large-scale production of sequence data, allowing an intensification in the genotyping of numerous populations for quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping. Advanced genome-wide association studies (GWAS) combined with candidate gene identification through bioinformatics approaches make it possible to identify many large- and small-effect quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and candidate genes associated with agronomically important traits. To date, a total of 521 QTLs associated with abiotic stress-related traits have been identified in flax. These QTLs constitute markers for genomic selection (GS) to predict breeding values of populations under selection; the goals being to improve the accuracy and efficiency of selection, reduce cost, and shorten the breeding cycles. Combined with genetic simulation, this GS strategy offers a new, effective approach to predict the breeding performance of crosses and evaluate parents based on their genotype. Here we provide an overview of genomewide QTL mapping, gene family identification, and outline the potential of a combined GS strategy with genetic simulation for breeding improvement of abiotic stress tolerance in flax.
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Background The natural removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through land conservation, restoration, and management is receiving increasing attention as a scalable approach for climate change mitigation. However, different land-use sectors compete for resources and incentives within and across geopolitical regions, resulting in divergent goals and inefficient prioritization of CO2 removal efforts. Thus, a unifying framework is needed to accelerate basic research and coordinated interventions to accelerate climate change mitigation. Scope We propose a generalizable framework for Enhanced Natural Climate Solutions (NCS +), which we define as activities that can be coordinated to increase carbon drawdown and permanence on land while improving livelihoods and the provision of natural resources in vulnerable communities and ecosystems. The framework builds on interdisciplinary scientific convergence, including critical socioecological interactions, to inform both top-down policy incentives and bottom-up adoption by industries and managers. To achieve this goal, we suggest a multi-tiered approach for the prioritization of projects at local to regional scales that would simultaneously accelerate scientific discovery and broad implementation of CO2 removal projects. Conclusions Our vision leverages input from hundreds of researchers and land managers, including social and environmental scientists as well as representatives from tribal governments, state, and federal agencies in the Pacific Northwest of the USA, as a model system. Five guiding principles orient the framework which would be applicable in any region. As evidence of feasibility, we provide a synthesis of interdisciplinary studies that illustrate how coordinated action, with explicit consideration of system-specific technical and socioecological limitations, can lead to scalable projects with multiple co-benefits. Using theory as a linchpin for innovation, we propose that NCS + could better align climate change mitigation, adaptation, and justice goals at multiple scales.
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Agriculture has the great potential to make a substantial contribution to net-zero emissions progress. This chapter conducts a comprehensive review of the literature on the strategies for agricultural carbon sequestration and GHG emissions reductions and their economic feasibility. A general lesson from this review is that carbon sequestration and GHG emissions reductions in agriculture is potentially attractive, depending on the environmental conditions, socioeconomic contexts and strategies analysed. Various agricultural strategies have been identified as appropriate measures to increase carbon sequestration and/or reduce GHG emissions, including conservation tillage, crop rotations, continuous cropping, residue retention, improved fertilisation, and afforestation. Adopting conservative tillage and continuous cropping might be economically feasible, while the economic feasibility for crop rotations varies across regions. Studies on the economic feasibility of improved fertilisation and residue retention provide mixed findings. The economic variable costs of afforestation in developing countries are relatively lower than the costs in developed countries. More considerations of co-benefits should be integrated into relevant climate policies. We need to further improve our recognition and understanding of the policy-making of agricultural climate policies, thereby substantially increasing their effectiveness and robustness.
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Atmospheric <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 sink (<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> S OCEAN ) and terrestrial <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 sink (<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> S LAND ) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">±1 σ . For the last decade available (2008-2017), <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> E FF was <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">9.4±0.5 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> E LUC <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">1.5±0.7 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> G ATM <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">4.7±0.02 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> S OCEAN <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">2.4±0.5 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , and <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> S LAND <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">3.2±0.8 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , with a budget imbalance <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> B IM of 0.5 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> E FF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">9.9±0.5 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 . Also for 2017, <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> E LUC was <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">1.4±0.7 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> G ATM was <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">4.6±0.2 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> S OCEAN was <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">2.5±0.5 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , and <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> S LAND was <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">3.8±0.8 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 , with a <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> B IM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 concentration reached <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula"> E FF of <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">+ 2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959-2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr<span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">ĝ'1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the <span classCombining double low line"inline-formula">CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).
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Indonesia and Peru harbor some of the largest lowland tropical peatland areas. Indonesian peatlands are subject to much greater anthropogenic activity than Peru’s, including drainage, logging, agricultural conversion, and burning, resulting in high greenhouse gas and particulate emissions. To derive insights from the Indonesian experience, we explored patterns of impact in the two countries, and compared their predisposing factors. Impacts differ greatly among Indonesian regions and the Peruvian Amazon in the following order: Sumatra > Kalimantan > Papua > Peru. All impacts, except fire, are positively related to population density. Factors enhancing Indonesian peatlands’ susceptibility to disturbance include peat doming that facilitates drainage, coastal location, high local population, road access, government policies permitting peatland use, lack of enforcement of protections, and dry seasons that favor extensive burning. The main factors that could reduce peatland degradation in Peru compared with Indonesia are geographic isolation from coastal population centers, more compact peatland geomorphology, lower population and road density, more peatlands in protected areas, different land tenure policies, and different climatic drivers of fire; whereas factors that could enhance peatland degradation include oil and gas development, road expansion in peatland areas, and an absence of government policies explicitly protecting peatlands. We conclude that current peatland integrity in Peru arises from a confluence of factors that has slowed development, with no absolute barriers protecting Peruvian peatlands from a similar fate to Indonesia’s. If the goal is to maintain the integrity of Peruvian peatlands, government policies recognizing unique peatland functions and sensitivities will be necessary.
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A major reduction in global deforestation is needed to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss. Recent private sector commitments aim to eliminate deforestation from a company’s operations or supply chain, but they fall short on several fronts. Company pledges vary in the degree to which they include time-bound interventions with clear definitions and criteria to achieve verifiable outcomes. Zero-deforestation policies by companies may be insufficient to achieve broader impact on their own due to leakage, lack of transparency and traceability, selective adoption and smallholder marginalization. Public–private policy mixes are needed to increase the effectiveness of supply-chain initiatives that aim to reduce deforestation. We review current supply-chain initiatives, their effectiveness, and the challenges they face, and go on to identify knowledge gaps for complementary public–private policies.
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Background In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries’ respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties’ expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties’ official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1. ResultsOn the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.1–1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.7–2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.2–0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.5–1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indonesia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia. Conclusions The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections.
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