Prediksi Dampak Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Debit Andalan Di DAS Krueng Aceh

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that the dependence of agriculture on water resources will be the higher of the effects of climate change. However, data limitations make it difficult to predict the impact of climate change on water resources. This study aims to predict changes in dependable discharge as the impact of climate change. Discharge relationship with climate parameters modeled using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), while the relationship of climate parameters change with changes in discharge obtained using Geostatistical Analysis module of ArcGIS 10.1. The ANN model performe well in predicting monthly discharge of Krueng Aceh River. The climate condition for period 2046-2065 under scenario A1B is obtained from Climate Analysis Tool Website. Future climate condition show that average monthly temperature of the study area is predicted to increase between 1.2-1.9°C while the monthly rainfall will increase during June to November. The analysis shows that the impact of rising temperatures and changing rainfall distribution will impact dependable discharge. The highest reduction of dependable discharge will occur in February which is reduced by 6.31 m3/sec, while the highest increase is in July for 1.39 m3/sec