Man Bites Blue Dog: Are Moderates Really More Electable than Ideologues?

Abstract

Are ideologically moderate candidates more electable than ideologically extreme candidates? Historically, both research in political science and conventional wisdom answer yes to this question. However, given the rise of ideologues on both the right and the left in recent years, it is important to consider whether this assumption is still accurate. I find that, while moderates have historically enjoyed an advantage over ideologically extreme candidates in Congressional elections, this gap has disappeared in recent years, where moderates and ideologically extreme candidates are equally likely to be elected. This change persists for both Democratic and Republican candidates.

Full text

Man Bites Blue Dog: Are Moderates
Really More Electable than Ideologues?





Abstract: 
 !
""# "!
!
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!"&
'!
!"
#()
*+
Keywords,$!!-!
Running header: *

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$*./012
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"
56!"
"!($(
"(

+%57*
*8,99999&:
3

'"
            !  !  

'!
!"
!          "        8*"
4;20: "!!
          !    )    
  +        *!       
  !"  "
        *      *  
( +!
2<133.1=1343!"&4<134<
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!"*>
8'!+133=:
"!"
 (        )   
',
            
8"-!    ?  @  1332:!      (  
        87"    @  133=:!  
8! 
4

    1330:!  !          !      
    - 8A(  134=:   
           
!      B    "(        
""
How Ideology Can Inuence Electoral Success
        (          
   C     
 $! "(   
!
"    (          8*"  4;20:   D  
    "            
8133<: "!
!
!8! 1330:! 
    (         8  1342:  E
 !"
            8       :  E
    "  !              
        "    !      
8 1342:6>
"                  

5

"!       "    
>    )!            
!  "                  
  "
          >   
  "  B   8@
4;;.:)
!            >    @  8133<:
!"(
 $!
!        
!85
1342:  )      "  "          
!                  

EF7
")"
+  !  "              
* )         
+8+1342:G!
!
""
  C      (  "      
6

            B  8  1340:
!                  )  
HIC"
+  8*:        !      
*  8+:          )   
!
              
8!@134=:

      -         
E
8  !      (        
          :!          
    -      4;.3          8"-
1343: 7           
  -!              -  !
86133<:$
        !      
"    7 !
candidates >  !
"
)                    
          $      
7


 !       "    
8A(  133;J  K  134<:  $!          
  "  4;01    1341  8A(  134=:   )        
      "        8"-  
E  134=:  !  >  -!    (      B
! " 8A( 134=J
134.:  E                "      
  -!          -        
!

KB              #
  "            !    "
(*K'H
I +!   * )! ) '-!  
'!      134=    !  "  "  "    
8134=:+"
!
believe       )              C    !
            (   "
!"("*
("(!!
8

    !          !  

Methods and Results
        *    $!      !  
G8*$G:8134/:4;.3B1341!$>
              8134/:L    
                )
!(*EBK7$K)G!
        #           '  

)">
 (      "   4 $     8134<:L
'61    ! "        
1 !$
 $"
+*!
"(>
&
2)'6!"
"8134<:
!"
6
!'68r M;1:B
9

!"$
!!!$
      B  ! Ideological Extremity!  "  
33348 : <;.48: ) 
  3.1=!"     3/.. $  
! Year, "384;.3:/181341:!
      "        )        
        (          !  $
Ideological Extremity Year.
$    "              8134/:
)% ! Winning Election!"(
4"!-"$
                  ! Vote
Share!)3433!"
2/<413//$!$
      !  "            
!  "            !      
10

!       /  
B  %  >!              
' B   +       
64
)        L  >        
"                $  %  
   ( "  
! " 
 (  "$ %      
("!>
     )     
("!
"  "# ( " C  "
13N (" 4;.3!  "
  "    .3N  (    "  "!    133.!
     
    (    "   !  "      
"      23N      )        
(
" 
+L>
61!"$4;.3!
""<3N
11

!"""=3N)
   23N   !     133.  
1341!                  
8:
"!
  !                
+ 6 '! "  1.N  ! A
O(84.N:D810N:$1343
  1341!  "              "!  
*)"E+
5@@
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Probability of Winning
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Strength of Ideology = 0 Strength of Ideology = 3
Figure 1. Ideology and Electability 1980-2012
30 40 50 60 70
Vote Share
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Strength of Ideology = 0 Strength of Ideology = 3
Figure 2. Ideology and Vote Share 1980-2012
12

0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Probability of Winning
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Strength of Ideology = 0 Strength of Ideology = 3
Figure 3. Ideology and Electability 1980-2012 - Repub licans

0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Probability of Winning
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Year
Strength of Ideology = 0 Strength of Ideology = 3
Figure 4. Ideology and Electability 1980-2012 - Democrats

13

6  /    <<             
"! ("  
%!>+*8
        *:  $            
!"(!"
"(1343!>"
"!
    " #(  
 )  
    !      *    +  "  
&

Discussion and conclusion
$!"
!!(!
""
#(')
#$
"
"(""

7!
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14

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References
"-!$4;.;D!G!''
G,)'Journal of
Politics248<:,;00C;;1
"-!$1343The disappearing center: Engaged citizens,
polarization, and American democracy. K" ,O

"-!$!"@1332
H$!+!*'
GIJournal of Politics =.84:,02B..
15

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Journal of Political Science!2.81:,/=0B/.0
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politics 118<:,<<3B<24
!'133<H''
GIBritish Journal of Political Science/<81:,144C110
*"!4;20An Economic Theory of DemocracyK"O(,
+"
6!"55'133<Culture
war? The myth of polarized America. K"O(,
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organization 4<81:,/3<B/1<
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16

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American Political Science Review 43;84:,4.B<1
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008/:,.=4B.0/
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A(!"133;The partisan sort: How liberals became
Democrats and conservatives became Republicans. ',
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America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches'!,
$)
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>ISocial Choice and Welfare <<8/:,
<20B<04
K! 134<Political ideologies and political parties in America.
','
17

7"!@@133=H)"B
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ISocial choice and welfare 1=8/:,2<0B2=;
+!+1342HG,E1341
+IElectoral Studies <3,23;B
24/
!134=HE(A(*K')
'IThe Observer 437134=
!E51340Candidates and Voters','

18

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3)(
8
:!38
:28"&:$!
33<32!"3/;2
33.<
4+

19