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Towards a Method of Participatory Planning in an Emerging Metropolitan Delta in the Context of Climate Change. The Case of Lower Parana Delta, Argentina.

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The Paraná Delta is a large and heterogeneous territory that can be considered an extreme and particular case due to the dynamics that interact within this area. Nevertheless, many of the conflicts that can be found in this area replicate in other deltas around the world, which are subjected to pressures related to urban growth and climate change, within a context of uncertainty and unpredictability. Those pressures interact at multiple scales and temporalities, affecting the components of the systems, as well as the relations between them and with the environment. This complexity reveals the need for the society (including governments, institutions, civil organisations, academia, etc.) to enhance the adaptability of the system of the delta, in order to cope with changes without losing their substantial characteristics. This thesis is focused on the study of the complexity of self-organising processes that emerge in metropolitan areas located in (or near) delta territories, in order to link climate adaptation with urban development from an actor-oriented perspective. For that purpose, this research based on the understanding of the self-organising processes that emerge in urbanising deltas to design and implement a methodology that can be applied at the local level, to generate an impact at other scales. The method designed in this thesis also includes the development of scenarios in order to think about possible future events and reflect on the necessary policy and actions to make the system respond to changes in a more adaptive way. The scenarios, as well as all the indicators analysed along the process, are developed through participatory workshops, after an analysis of the actor-network of the area, and also of the local, provincial and national regulations.
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... Deltas can be considered complex adaptive systems, where ecological, social, environmental and many other factors coexist in constant transformation within a context of great uncertainty, exacerbated by climate change (Zagare, 2018). This conception of urban deltas as complex adaptive systems comes from Complexity Theories, and it is related to different aspects. ...
... First, urban deltas are open systems in constant interaction with their external environment. Within the system, many subsystems (formed by physical components, social actors and the relationships between them) interact with each other (Zagare, 2018). The interactions are a result of constant adaptation processes between the components and between the system and the environment, which leads to changes in the structure and organization of the system. ...
... Lack of public participation and top-down processes are also obstacles, as well as an unsupportive and rigid legal framework. Knowledge transfer (previously mentioned), capacity building and collaborative governance include a wide range of instruments and methods which can generate spaces for social mobilization that can be anchored within the planning and institutional existing framework (Zagare, 2018). ...
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Coastal areas, especially deltas, are some of the most urbanized territories in the world. Historically, the natural richness and strategic location of these areas resulted attractive for human settlements worldwide. However, these areas are also highly vulnerable due to rapid and unplanned urbanization, land use changes, and extreme climate events. There is an international consensus on the need for new strategies for sustainable development to help cities to mitigate the effects of climate change, as well as adapt to new changing conditions in a context of increasing uncertainty. This paper will explore the specific aspects of urban deltas and coastal areas, from a complexity-based approach, and analyse Nature-based Solutions as alternatives towards sustainable development in these areas.
... Asimismo, el territorio natural presenta dinámicas propias y se encuentra en constante transformación. Es así como las zonas costeras y los deltas alcanzan una doble complejidad derivada de la coexistencia de procesos emergentes tanto naturales como antrópicos, en un contexto de cambio continuo e impredictibilidad frente al futuro (Zagare, 2018;Meyer, 2014a). Esta incertidumbre está dada no solo por las tendencias sociales y económicas, sino también por los efectos del cambio climático, que muchas veces generan grandes impactos en estas zonas, aumentando su vulnerabilidad. ...
... El análisis Escenarios. (Zagare, 2018) fue estructurado siguiendo la metodología del Layer Approach o "Perspectiva de Capas" (McHarg, 1969), que distingue tres capas de organización espacial del territorio: substrato (ambiente), redes (infraestructura y comunicaciones) y ocupación (usos del suelo). Esta perspectiva, inicialmente desarrollada en Estados Unidos de Norteamérica en 1969, fue adoptada en los Países Bajos en la década del ochenta, y sentó las bases para numerosas políticas urbanas. ...
... Zagare, 2018). ...
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This article is focused on the double complexity that takes place in emerging metropolitan deltas due to the coexistence of natural dynamics and urban processes, in a context of uncertainty regarding climate change and economic development. Within this scope, traditional planning turns ineffective to address current and future issues in a flexible and participatory way. In order to develop efficient planning methods and strategies, it is necessary to understand the structure and processes that define these systems. For that purpose, in this article the concept of emerging metropolitan deltas will be presented, deepening the understanding of these areas as complex adaptive systems. Then, the challenges of planning will be addressed by analysing the case of the Paraná Delta and presenting an adaptive and participatory planning method for the area.
... Frente a la evidencia de los efectos negativos producidos por el Cambio Climático y las actividades humanas desarrolladas en forma no sustentable (MEA, 2005), las SbN buscan hallar alternativas de mitigación y adaptación que a la vez protejan la biodiversidad y respondan a los desafíos sociales (Eggermont et al., 2015, p. 244). Esta perspectiva reconoce la complejidad de los sistemas socio-ecológicos (su dinamismo, auto-organización, y capacidad de adaptación), para así evitar limitarse a resolver los desafíos sociales y ambientales exclusivamente a través de la ingeniería tradicional (Cohen-Shacham et al., 2016;Eggermont et al., 2015;Zagare, 2018). ...
... Ubicados en tierras bajas susceptibles a las inundaciones producto del aumento del nivel del mar, han hecho históricamente grandes inversiones en infraestructura gris de protección, y desarrollado planes tales como el Delta Works o el Zuiderzee Works, ambos llevados a cabo luego de las devastadoras inundaciones de 1953 (Meyer et al., 2014). Luego de llevadas a cabo las obras, se llegó a cuestionar hasta qué punto se garantiza la protección en un contexto de continuo aumento de nivel del mar, así como también, cuál es el grado de irreversibilidad de las obras grises, y cuál es la posibilidad de restaurar el territorio a su estado original (Meyer et al., 2014;Zagare, 2018). Estos cuestionamientos dieron pie a un cambio de paradigma orientado a trabajar "con" el agua en lugar de luchar "contra" el agua (Vrijling & Stive, 2010). ...
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The Paraná Delta has long been a territory of slow-onset transformations, despite its proximity to major cities. However, in recent decades it has come under increasing pressure from accelerated changes in land use, notably the unfettered expansion of cities, while enduring the consequences of the rapid rise of industrial agriculture in Argentina (notably soybeans), that have tended to displace cattle production to the delta, among other areas. Climate-change impacts such as floods, droughts, fire outbreaks, and the hydrologic effects of sea-level rise contribute to heightened vulnerability in the delta. However, national response to climate change is providing a framework for action to protect it. This links wetland conservation programs with Argentina’s efforts to establish its low emissions long-term climate strategy, meet the objectives of its Second Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement, and implement its National Adaptation Plan. ‘Conservation lighthouses’ could be the start of a more systematic response to support climatechange adaptation.
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