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77
Journal of Business Economics and Management ISSN 1611-1699
2006, Vol VII, No 2, 77–83
RISK MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Martin Schieg
University of Applied Sciences Augsburg, Baumgartnerstrasse 16, 86161 Augsburg, Germany
E-mail: martin.schieg@cbp.de
Received 06 10 2005; accepted 20 01 2006
Abstract. By adopting risk management, savings potentials can be realized in construction projects. For this reason, for
project managers as well as real estate developers, a consideration of the risk management process is worthwhile. The
risk management process comprises 6 process steps, which will be discussed in greater detail below. The integration of
a risk management system in construction projects must be oriented to the progress of the project and permeate all areas,
functions and processes of the project. In this, particular importance is attached to the risks in the personnel area, for,
particularly for enterprises providing highly qualified services, specialized employees are essential for market success.
Keywords: risk management process, error, possibility and influence analysis, risk portfolio, risk team analysis, risk
identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk policy
1. Introduction
The economic situation and the expansion of the EU
give rise to considerations of how to be able to offer
the principal more efficient and more economic offers.
This requires a consistent structuring of the enterprise
and continuous risk management when carrying out
construction projects.
Construction projects are exposed to risks at the time
of their coming into existence. In the various stages,
it must first of all be considered what risks the
principal would like to counter with measures and how
costly these measures are. For this, risks, possible risk
costs, measures and costs of the measures must be
identified and suitable measures must be found in
order to avoid errors in the future.
The willingness of the real estate developers to take
a risk that causes costs is common to all construction
projects. The costs for risks are mostly not allowed
for beforehand and thus reduce its profit margin. A
consideration of the topic of risk management is
worthwhile therefore and hence also the attempt to
minimise costs due a failure to take precautions or avoid
these completely.
Construction projects vary with the course of
development, planning, realization and operating.
Despite their uniqueness, recurrent processes of these
phases can serve as a cornerstone for the recognition
of risks in order to consider project-specific and
known risks more closely. In this, particular impor-
tance is attached to the implementation and realization
phase.
While in the past claims for damages were regularly
presented subject to the precondition that an actual or
rather obvious damage or loss at the structure had
occurred, in the meantime the claim is increasingly
asserted in the case of defects that have not (or not
yet) led to damage or loss at structures. The claims
for damages for resulting costs and other pecuniary
prejudices incurred by the contractor are increasing,
e.g. ineffective regulations regarding contractual
penalties, errors in the collaboration in the award of
the contract, errors in the checking of invoices.
Risk management in the architect’s and engineer’s
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Martin Schieg
office should thus establish itself an essential part of
project management.
2. Definition of risk
In theory, risk is usually defined as a positive or
negative deviation of a variable from its expected
value. In general parlance, risk is understood only as
a loss. The definition of risk in the meantime not least
takes into account thechances.
In order to turn risks into chances, the business owner
must first know his / her risk sufficiently well. Risk
management constitutes a strategy to avoid losses and
use available chances or rather chances potentially
arising from risks. The strategy demands from the
person taking action a precise “consideration” and
“assessment” of the situation and the scenarios
probably occurring in the future. On this basis,
decisions are made in the hope of having eliminated
all risks and used all chances. This means recognizing
potential risks and circumventing a threat by averting,
evading or reducing their negative effects.
3. Risk management
Risk management in construction projects is of great
importance, as shown in Fig 1. Although at the start
of a project, through the introduction of risk mana-
gement, an increased expense is incurred, this is
compensated for, in particular through the advantages
of risk management. In the planning phase possible
risks for the subsequent project success can be
identified and reduced through their incorporation into
the planning. This has in particular effects on the
observance of set dates and deadlines and thus also
on the maintenance of the project costs. For the
principal, observance of its due date for putting into
service an operating unit is of great importance.
The risk potential analysis of a project states to what
extent project risks influence the risk situation of the
enterprise. Risk potential should be estimated without
a detailed consideration of the individual risks at as
little expense as possible.
Depending on the assessment of the risk potential, the
risk management process is set in motion.
Risk management comprises the integration of basic
principles of risk policy, the establishment of a risk-
consciousness as well as the organizational integration.
It is an impetus for the risk management process and
is responsible for the control of risks in full knowledge
of the current risk situation [1]. Through risk
management, transparency increases, many problems
can be avoided from the outset through proactive
action, the project can be prepared for unavoidable
problems. Through this, the consequences can be
mitigated, and the project manager retains the control
over his / her project.
The risk management process comprises several steps,
which will be explained hereinafter and are repre-
sented in Fig 2.
3.1. Step 1 Identifying risks
Risks that are not recognized also cannot be assessed
and dealt with. However, a complete coverage of the
risks is impossible.
The task of risk management is therefore to cover the
essential risks as completely as possible. Risk iden-
tification must therefore be carried in a way that is
Fig 1. Potential through the use of risk management in construction projects
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RISK MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT
both forward-looking and in line with the progress of
the project, since before the start of the project not
all risks are completely recognizable and during the
project implementation further risks may emerge.
Fig 3 provides an overview of various methods for
identifying risks. In principle, creative and guided
methods are distinguished. The first type offers the
possibility also to discover new kinds of risk. Guided
methods use such as checklists for identifying risks,
with the aid of which the conceivable types of risk are
checked.
In projects, in particular the following risks occur,
which are broken down according to risk types:
Quality risks
- Defect in interim results
- Lacking application of project methods
- Too few controls / tests
Personnel risks
- Lack of skills
- Disagreements in the team
Cost risks
- Planning changes
- Complicated project conditions
- Customer fails to pay
Set date / deadline risks
- No handover in good time
- The project end is delayed
Risks of strategic decisions
- Failure to recognize chances
- Lack of ability to consistently use chances
External risks
- Natural occurrences
- Political changes
- Changes in society
- A shift in the market / new markets
- Legal developments
- Shifts in sectoral trends
- Technological changes
3.2. Step 2 Analysing risks
The objective is to describe the risk situation as
completely and precisely as possible and to prioritize
the risks. For this, the identified risks are investigated
with regard to the probability of their occurrence and
the effect on the project. In the first place, a portfolio
and a risk costs assessment respectively serves for
classification purposes. Criteria must be found, on the
basis of which individual risks can be assessed and
compared with one another.
A risk must always be described as a damage or loss-
entailing event to which a particular value can be
allocated. From this, damage or loss assessed in terms
of costs and the probability of occurrence, a value for
the risk can be calculated [Fig 4].
Methods of risk assessment are e.g.:
nError, possibility and influence analysis
This is a largely formalized analytical method for
the systematic coverage of all possible errors and
for the estimation of the risks associated with
these. In this, within a team, possible potential
errors are determined with the aid of a standard
error, possibility and influence analysis form, the
consequences are investigated und the causes are
established and assessed.
Fig 2. Elements of risk management
Fig 3. Methods of risk identification (according to
Göcke, p. 143) Fig 4. Risk classification
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Martin Schieg
Next, the causes of errors are systematically
assessed in terms of the probability of their
occurrence, the significance for the customer and
the probability of their being discovered. Finally,
suitable measures are commenced.
nThe risk portfolio
In the risk portfolio risks are ordered according to
the amount of damage or loss and the probability
of their occurrence. Accordingly, the effects on the
project and the need to take action are evaluated.
nRisk team analysis
The risk evaluation is carried out by the project
manager in the context of project controlling. For
the risk team analysis, risks are determined and
analysed according to types and indicators for the
occurrence of risk are worked out. From this,
possible measures are elaborated and represented
and persons responsible for the risk monitoring
and notification are determined.
3.3. Step 3 Assessing risks
The risk assessment comprises the qualitative as-
sessment and quantitative measurement of individual
risks including the interrelationship of their effects.
With the help of the results of risk assessment for
example a risk portfolio of a project can be illustrated
and compared with others.
While for the banking or insurance industry mathe-
matically and statistically exact methods for risk
assessment are useful, these cannot satisfy the typical
risks in the construction industry. The following
methods of risk assessment and risk comparison can
also be used in construction projects:
nKey performance indicators
Key performance indicators cover quantitatively
measurable circumstances and thus create a basis
for comparison. They are preferably consulted for
risk assessment if a large number of data and
figures must be compared. For the key per-
formance indicators, threshold values from which
a risk warning exists are determined. Typical key
performance indicators in the real estate sector
are average operating costs, average rent, and
vacancy rate or average interest on outside
capital.
nQualitative assessment
If no objective data is available, risks must still
be quantifiable and made estimable. One method
is qualitative estimation and weighting; in this,
risks are assessed subjectively according to
probability of their occurrence and the amount
of damage or loss.
nProbable maximum loss
The procedure of quantitative risk determination
primarily aims at estimating the probabilities of
dangerous occurrences within a risk scenario. In
the evaluation of the risk of major damage or loss
for example the maximum damage or loss
possible or probable is determined.
nABC analysis
The ABC analysis is based on the recognition
that frequently a relatively small number of
factors make up the largest share of a whole. The
goal of the analysis is therefore to find out what
factors make up the largest part of the project
value and in which therefore a greater planning
and control expenditure is justified.
nRisk map
The risk map illustrates the risk profile of an
enterprise. It is referred to as risk landscape, risk
map or risk matrix [1]. In a risk map it can be
read with what priority the risks should be
approached. In this, the risks that cannot be borne,
which could endanger the continued existence of
the enterprise, are prioritized. The risk
classification in a risk matrix thus enables a
differentiated consideration of two classification
criteria: probability of occurrence and expected
value.
3.4. Step 4 Controlling risks
Controlling risk is the active influencing of the risks
determined in the context of the risk analysis.
Measures of dealing with risk can be differentiated
between cause-related and effect-related measures.
Cause-related measures are supposed to avoid or
reduce risks, while effect-related measures serve to
reduce or safeguard against the amount of damage or
loss to be expected in the event of the damage or loss-
entailing event [3].
Strategies of controlling risk are accordingly the
following:
- Avoidance
- Reduction
- Passing on the risk
- Bearing the risk by oneself
3.5. Step 5 Monitoring risks
The monitoring of risks is the continuous operative
control of the effectiveness of the risk control
measures. The goal of risk management is not to eli-
minate risks completely from the project. The
monitoring of the risk helps guarantee that the risk
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RISK MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT
position of the project corresponds to the risk situation
strived for.
This task is supported instrumentally through analyses
of variances. The internal control system is part of the
monitoring of the risk. The continuous monitoring of the
early indicators and the repeated risk verification are
carried out by the persons responsible in each case, no
later than the respective milestone deadlines. A
precondition for this is that a reporting and meeting
structure in the organisation and for the project is
stipulated. Besides the pursuit of the risk status and the
progress of the measures, new additional risks must be
included. Risks that have occurred must be documented
with the relevant amount of damage or loss; critical
situations of the managerial staff must be reported.
3.6. Step 6 Controlling goals
After the recognition, analysis and assessment of risks,
measures for controlling goals must be taken. The
control process may be broken down into sub-pro-
cesses: determination of the target value, determination
of the actual value, target/actual comparison and an
analysis of variances. As a permanent process, in the
context of the monitoring, the risk identification,
analysis, and controlling are checked to find out
whether the risk control is implemented in due form.
In the event of variances between the actual risk
situation and the risk situation strived for, steps must
be commenced to specify the causes. Based on these
recognitions, the risk strategy must then be adapted
or revised. Consequently, by monitoring the risk it is
guaranteed that standards set of risk management are
taken into account.
4. Risk management in the progress of the
project
Responsibility for carrying out the chance and risk
management is borne by the project manager. The duty
of the project management in the event of risk
identification is to discover any emerging risks of a
construction project and include these in a risk
catalogue. For this, in practice, risk checklists that
have been drawn up based on empirical values from
comparable construction projects serve as ordinary
auxiliary means. From the area of project controlling,
in particular the following should be mentioned:
- Plan of services
- Pursuance of set dates / deadlines and progress
- Pursuance of costs
- Quality assurance
- Analysis of contracts
In order to encourage willingness to adopt risk
management in the construction industry, standard risk
checklists should be drawn up, with the help of which
the project manager is only required to “tick off” the
standard risks occurring. A quick instruction for project
managers and teams that is easy to implement should
result, which makes it possible to deal more easily with
project risks.
The necessity to install a risk management system as
early as possible results from the fact that risk
potentials exist, at least in a rudimentary form, already
before or at the start of the project and are recog-
nizable, however their effects and damage only come
to light in the subsequent progress of the project. For
this reason, the risk management process should be
established and integrated into the entire project
process as a permanent (sub-) task of the project
management. In this, the identification, analysis and
assessment of risks must in each case be geared to the
entire project and to special aspects of the individual
project phases. In general, the progress of a project
can be divided up into three phases:
- Start-up phase
- Manage phase
- Close phase
In this, typical risks occur in the corresponding phases.
They must be integrated into the risk management
process in order to prevent the progress of the project
from being disturbed. For dealing with chances and
risks in projects, the following principles apply:
- Responsibility for carrying out the chance and
risk management is borne by the project
manager.
- Only taking risks that one can influence
oneself.
- Avoiding or safeguarding against risks that are
influenced by others (customers, subcon-
tractors).
- As far as possible, passing on risks taken.
- The consideration of chances und risks is a
part of the project reporting
Below, with the aid of specific questions characteristic
of the individual phases, it is shown where the tasks
of risk management integrated into the progress of the
project lie. Some questions are stated as examples, in
which the type and scope of the questions can be
expanded and supplemented at will. In this, the project
breakdown carried out summarizes the project phases
of the scope of services of project management [1],
which was developed for project management by the
AHO commission of experts in three phases.
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Martin Schieg
4.1. Tasks of risk management
Start-up phase (project preparation; planning)
The start-up phase corresponds to project steps 1 and
2 from the scope of services of the project control
(section 204 AHO2).
In the start-up phase the focus of risk management
above all is on the check of the contractual and general
circumstances of the project environment. The task of
risk management is to recognize possible risks that can
disturb the actual progress of the project. Here, risk
management should investigate the following typical
questions for identifying potential risks:
- Are the project goals clearly defined?
- Does clarity about the project structure exist?
- Have the future planners, advisers and
consultants been selected and commissioned?
- Are there specific contractual features?
- Do gaps in services exist in the contracts?
- Is a concept of use available?
- Have the set dates / deadlines for the
application for subsidies been complied with?
The scope of services of the project control comprises
for certain partial services, such as e.g. the creation
of a user needs programme, already comprises an
analysis and assessment of the risks associated with
this [2].
Manage phase (preparation of the implementation and
implementation)
The task of risk management in the individual
implementation phases of the project are characterized
by the objective content of the project progress. In
principle, during the project implementation, it is
essentially a question of observing known risks from
the start-up phase and their changes.
The effect of the measures taken to deal with risk must
be assessed and additional risks must be analyzed
regularly and in a results-oriented way.
For the manage phase, the following risk questions are
characteristic:
- Are all resources available as planned?
- Does the principal comply with its duties to
collaborate?
- Will the principal accept the entire project
without serious defects?
Close phase (project completion)
The project end is reached upon the performance of
the service and the handover (acceptance) of the
structure to the principal (e.g. real estate developer).
It becomes particularly critical if the principal refuses
to accept the completed solution because the project
result is not in accordance with its objectives. Risk
management can help avoid such “failures” by
pursuing the questions in the close phase:
- Were the contractual contents and undertakings
fulfilled?
- Is a complete project documentation (records
of meetings, correspondence, released project
documentation etc.)?
- Is the contractually owed service “capable of
being accepted”?
For the further development of the risk management
system, it is important that stock is taken of the
reflection on the progress of the project. In this,
relevant questions are: What identified risks have
occurred? What problems that have actually occurred
in the progress of the project were not identified as
risks and why not?
4.2. Risks in the personnel sector
Structural upheavals in the world of technology as well
as dynamic changes in the sales markets can only be
mastered successfully if the employees of an enterprise
identify with this and are committed to this. Particularly
for enterprises that offer highly qualified services,
specialized employees acting on their own responsibility
are essential for market success. For this reason,
personnel risk management is necessary in order to not
have to accept losses in tactical / operative competence
and innovative potential through the departure of
employees. Impressionable risk fields can above all be
divided up into four areas: Bottleneck risk field,
departure risk field, adaptation risk field and motivation
risk field [3]; these will be explained briefly in the
following section.
Bottleneck risk field
This is a matter of identifying in good time in what
areas future top performers will be absent in the
future. In this, the following questions stand in the
foreground:
- What are the key qualifications for the future?
- Are strategically important staff positions
safeguarded?
- How will the quantitative need for employees
change in the future?
- How do the qualitative requirements made of
the employees change due to new scopes of
service or technologies?
Departure risk field
Departures of top performers generally constitute a
high risk potential, in particular in long-term projects in
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RISK MANAGEMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT MANAGEMENT
which the project manager is the confidante of the real
estate developer. Central reasons why employees leave
an enterprise are: new challenges, more responsibility
for decisions, better professional prospects with regard
to career development, and good future perspectives
of the new enterprise.
The following factors reduce the risk of departure and
should therefore be taken into account by the business
management: good business climate, favourable
outline conditions for employee development,
extensive non-material incentives on the part of the
enterprise, remuneration structures adequate for the
performance, suitable organizational structures and
marked allocation of power potentials.
Adaptation risk field
Falsely qualified employees constitute adaptation
risks. Should leaves of absence be avoided, as a
precaution requalification or new qualifications are
necessary. In construction projects here ongoing
further training courses of the employees are necessary
with regard to technological and legal changes. In
construction project management changed scopes of
service must be taken into account through a greater
consolidation of services in the implementation of
construction work.
Motivation risk field
Diffident services in many cases constitute a signi-
ficant risk. Burnt-out employees or employees who
have resigned in all but name are topical examples.
The following behavioural risks are indicative of
resignation in all but name:
- An absence of own initiative
- Overadapted behaviour
- Avoidance of conflicts
- An absence of constrictive criticism
- Undertaking less demanding work
- No longer exhaust existing competences
Possible instruments for reducing risks in the per-
sonnel sector are:
Promoting personnel development in a purposeful
manner, coaching of managerial staff and employees,
forcing identification with the enterprise through a
corresponding corporate culture and creating motivation
by granting more freedoms and self development.
5. Conclusions
Effective risk management must permeate all areas,
functions and processes of the project. The goal
therefore must be to negotiate risks, assess these or
even make these marketable and reduce them
emphatically. In this, a decisive factor in its success
is in the end the interaction of all elements re-
presented. A risk and control culture borne and
experienced by all parties involved in the project has
the effect of a connecting bracket that can safeguard
the effectiveness of the structural and organizational
measures of risk management. The key to this is the
parties involved in risk management. Effective risk
management requires commitment as well as the risk-
conscious behaviour of each individual. The moti-
vation as well as the interplay of the parties involved
in the project in the end determines the quality of the
work and thus the success of the project.
Risk management successfully installed in the project
offers the chance to gain a clear understanding of the
goals, duties and contents of the service and the
feasibility of the project. It provides an information
basis for the quantitative data, sorted according to size,
for the purpose of supporting decisions, such as e.g.
the choice between costs and implementing goods or
the comparison between several possible options. For
this, however, it is necessary that a high quality of the
status of information is always available in order to
make determinations on the basis of useable and
comprehensive information. Risk management can
therefore only be implemented and enforced effec-
tively if communication channels in the enterprise are
created, which guarantee the direction of the infor-
mation to the places concerned in each case.
Through the risk management used, the overall risk
of the project is broken down into individual risks. For
these, corresponding measures can be taken. No-
netheless, in each project residual risks remain. It
remains a strategic decision whether these risks are
taken and can be borne if they occur.
References
[1] Cf. Marc Diederichs. Risikomanagement und Risiko-
controlling, Verlag Vahlen, 2004, p. 14.
[2] Cf. Romeike, Frank: Lexikon Risikomanagement,
Wiley-VCH Verlag, 2004, p. 113.
[3] Cf. Göcke, Bettina: Risikomanagement für Angebots-
und Auftragsrisiken von Bauprojekten, DVP Verlag,
Wuppertal, 2002, p. 169.
[4] Cf. AHO Ausschuss der Verbände und Kammern der
Ingenieure und Architekten für die Honorarordnung
e.V.: Projektmanagement Leistungen in der Bau- und
Immobilienwirtschaft, No. 9, Stand Januar 2004,
Bundesanzeiger, p. 9.
[5] Cf. ibid, p. 34.
[6] Cf. Dr. Leidig, Guido: Risikomanagement im Human-
Ressourcen Bereich, Der Betriebswirt 1/2002, S. 28 et seq.
