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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
exposing common myths
Future Work 2025
Professor Marcus Bowles
The Centre for Workforce Futures, Macquarie University
The Institute For Working Futures pty ltd
27 December 2018
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The Centre for Workforce Futures
The Institute for
Working Futures
pty ltd | acn: 22 054 466 769
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Future work myths
Four popular myths truncate current debate on the impact of automation
and artificial intelligence on future work in Australia.
1. The job loss and reskilling task facing the Australian labour force is
beyond comprehension.
2. We don’t know what skill, knowledge or abilities people will need in the
future.
3. We cannot train for jobs that don’t exist today or even have titles.
4. The existing higher education system cannot be reinvented in time to
respond to the reskilling task.
We wish to challenge each and every one of the above assumptions.
Myth One:
The job loss and reskilling task facing the
Australian labour force is beyond
comprehension
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
1.9m workers will lose current
jobs as machines replace
human tasks
Over 2m workers will require
major reskilling to stay in
work as technology
significantly augments
certain jobs
2.4m workers will move to a
job that doesn’t exist today
15%
of us
16%
of us
20%
of us
Source: Faethm data using their predictive platform, released 18 December 2018; data modelling employment in all industries, Australia November 2018 to
November 2025. Numbers of workers based on ABS (2018) 6202.0 Labour Force Australia October 2018 reporting total employment of 12,665,800 workers.
Within 6 years
2019 to 2025
While job loss is of great concern, the belief that 40%of all jobs will be lost due to automation by 2016, causes anxiety but is substantially inaccurate.
Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics data (6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, October 2018)there were 12,665,800 employees in the Australian workforce in October
2018.Applying the data from Faethm for the future workforce, we have amuch clearer idea of the job loss, job creation,and the skilling task Australia will face.The
major debate has to focus on how we will transform the existing workforce capabilities to stay in work and assure the capabilities of all new graduates who can no
longer rely on technical skills to access employment in occupations that may no longer exist.
Myth Two:
We don’t know what skill, knowledge or
abilities people will need in the future
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
The changing labour market
Global research has already confirmed that core capabilities or so-called soft skills
increasingly dominate future work and employability
Soft skills or non-
technical skill
intensive jobs
will make up 63% of all
jobs by 2030.
63%
of all jobs will be
soft skill intensive
Source: Deloitte Access Economics (April 2017). Soft Skills for business success, DeakinCo., Melbourne.
Soft skill intensive jobs
will grow
2.5X
faster than other jobs
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
Core capabilities for future work and workers
1. Personal Initiative and Drive
2. Personal Learning and
Mastery
3. Adaptive Mindset
4. Cultural and Social
Intelligence
5. Empathy
6. Entrepreneurial Thinking
7. Critical Thinking and
Judgment
8. Ethics and Integrity
9. Communication
10. Collaboration and
Relationships
11. Creativity and Innovation
12. Problem Solving
13. Digital Acumen
14. Customer Focus
15. Technical/ Professional Skills
and Knowledge
Personal Non-Technical Technical
Jobs are an artificial boundary. They form when we package capabilities to achieve certain outcomes. While job titles may change we
know soft skills (personal and non-technical capabilities) will endure and guide employability in the future workplace.
The Queensland Tertiary Admissions Centre has validated global research finalised a draft set of 15 Future Capabilities.
With permission QTAC © 2018
Myth Three:
We cannot train for jobs that don’t exist
today or even have titles
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
0
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-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 012345678910
Job Neighbourhoods show jobs clusters related not only by what workers do,but
the capabilities required to perform work tasks and activities.It supplements the
concept of occupations and job families.
You should choose jobs with capabilities that allow movement (Job Corridors) into
other jobs in the neighbourhood.Ideally, this movement should be to jobs with
sustainable employment growth.
In the example provided, the motor mechanic looks to be agood job given current
employment. But the indicative 10 year employment growth projections are poor.
Employment for the Auto electrician is comparatively lower to day, and the Specialist
electric vehicle technician is much lower. But these latter jobs have much better long
term growth projections.
This indicative study of aregional Job Neighbourhood for motor mechanics can
inform existing workers and students where they may wish to gain core capabilities
then specialise to enhance future employment.
Employment Growth
Motor Mechanic
Employment Growth
Electric Vehicle Maintenance Technician
Employment Growth
Auto Electrician
Job Neighbourhoods
Examining corridors to employment and sustainable careers
Numbers Employed May 2018
Projected Job Growth May 2018-2025
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
Eight Future Job Neighbourhoods
We may not know what the ‘job’ title will
be in the future, but we are able to
predict five things:
1. What job roles require certain core
capabilities (soft skills);
2. Which job roles and tasks will be lost
due to automation or augmentation
by technology, AI or computerisation;
3. How jobs with certain capabilities
cluster in Job Neighbourhoods;
4. What capabilities new or emerging
job roles will require and their likely
job neighbourhood;and
5. What capabilities sustain
employment in the future workplace
or open corridors to new jobs.
With permission Working Futures™ © 2016
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
Job Neighbourhoods
I Care I Inform I Serve
Appealing to people
strongly focussed on
human and social well-
being, health and
justice. Areas of
practice may include
medical, health, aged
care, social enterprise,
and human services.
Oriented towards
those seeking to
enhance or share
human understanding,
knowledge and
practices. Areas of
practice may include
education, analytics,
business services,
media and consulting.
Strongly oriented to
interpersonal (physical
or virtual) interactions
and communication.
Areas of practice may
include retail, sales,
hospitality and
entertainment.
Encompasses people
drawing strongly from
personal insights and
emotions. Areas of
practice may include
artists, designers,
creative workers and
fabricators.
I Create
While important to all work at all levels in all jobs, research has predicted which future capabilities have
the most relevance to jobs appearing in certain clusters or job neighbourhoods.
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
Job Neighbourhoods (continued…)
I Grow I Connect I Administer I Build
Appealing to people
strongly focussed on
natural resources, food
and agriculture. Areas
of practice may
include farming,
mining, resource and
renewable energy.
Appealing to people
strongly focussed on
technology, computing
and digital networks.
Areas of practice may
include computing,
information
technology, web
services, social media,
digital systems,
transport and
telecommunications.
Oriented towards
administration,
management,
procedural knowledge,
and transactional
services. Areas of
practice may include
public service, banking,
law, logistics, and
managed services.
Appealing to people
strongly focussed on
designing, building and
maintaining networks,
products, machinery or
infrastructure. Areas of
practice may include
mechanics, chemistry,
cookery, manufacturing,
engineering, building,
construction and
architecture.
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
As people live longer and the public and
residential aged care system come under stress,
so services will go mobile and move to provide
aged care at home to the patient/ client
.
Transition aged carer
Where mechatronic meets automation this
role combines the traditional engineering
work with project and process management
.
Control systems engineer
These roles replace sales and account
managers with those directly advocating for
and helping customers achieve a successful
outcome while optimising their experience.
Customer success manager
Creating the virtual reality or augmented reality
content and environments being used for
education, training and new media platforms
.
Virtual content developer
As logistics and transport is transformed so
new business models, processes and
driverless vehicles emerge, so they will need
to be managed
.
Autonomous delivery controller
In mining, agriculture, construction, transport,
and pipeline industries drones with surveying,
imaging and 3D capabilities will be used to
improve operations and safety
.
Remote drone surveyor
Jobs of the Future
We can predict which capabilities open corridors to
new job opportunities in a neighbourhood
I Care
I Inform
I Serve
I Create
I Build
I
Administer
I Connect
I Grow
Specialist in helping people establish and
manage their personal brand and identity in
virtual and social media environments
.
Personal brand adviser
As people and organisations become increasingly
concerned by cyber threats demand for
specialists will boom.
Cyber security specialist
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
Aerospace Engineer Data analysis/ scientists
Mobile aged care assistant
Information security analyst
Jobs today that lead to tomorrow
For students likely to graduate within 5years it is important to
choose jobs today that reside in sustainable job
neighbourhoods.It means targeting jobs that are not only
growing fast today but require capabilities that open large Job
Neighbourhoods now and into the future.
Programmer
Mathematical technicians
Electro-mechanical engineer
Transformation manager
Physiotherapist
Robotics Technician
Nurse
Wind turbine technician
Electric motor repairer
Diesel mechanic
Data scientist
Social and human service assistant
Electro-mechanical engineer
General Practitioner
Operations/ logistics planner
Environmental scientists
Digital marketing strategist
Project manager
Management accountant
Teacher
Myth Four:
The existing higher education system cannot
be reinvented in time to respond to the
reskilling task
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
Explicit
Things you do that can be evidenced,
written down, seen or demonstrated.
The body of knowledge, theory, competencies or capabilities that
allow you to perform in a specific occupation or professional role.
For example being an:
•Accountant
•Bus driver
•Surgeon
•Hairdresser
•Plumber
•Teacher
Skills & Knowledge
Traditional higher education tends to focus on
technical and theory-based knowledge and
discipline specific skills
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
Tacit
Things you know or can do that can only be learnt but not
taught. It may be held within a network or by communities in
a context (e.g. social capabilities), They are cognitive, mental,
personality-based, or embedded in your attitude and
mindset. They shape how effectively you deploy and reflect
on your technical and non-technical knowledge and skills.
This is how you perceive yourself and others, your beliefs and
ethics, and your self-awareness. They are deeply embedded in
your DNA and emerge when you respond to others or a specific
situation. For example:
•Your motivation
•Personal ambition
•Empathy
•Self-esteem
Personal & Experiential
The future world of work and workers requires a
recalibration of higher education to focus more on
non-technical, soft skills and personal capabilities
that allow us to move rapidly to new or merged
work roles that largely ignore ‘industrial age’
discipline or occupational boundaries.
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
It seems counterintuitive given current job prospects but there exists a need
for creative talent. This is a niche where technology will be very slow to
replace human cognition required to produce intuitive insights and inspire
human centred design, content for new media and virtual environments.
Media and design
This is a big field but a focus on software development, security,
programming, cloud computing, machine learning and data administration
can all open large job neighbourhoods.
Computer science
Beyond the startup world, changes to work emphasising self-employment,
freelance and contracting, suggest all students should learn to think and
act like an entrepreneur.
Entrepreneurship
The STEM all-rounder. Not only providing the foundations of science and
mathematics, it covers design, problem solving and evaluative judgement.
There a reason why ‘Big Six’ consultancy companies now recruit more
engineering graduates than from any other discipline.
Engineering
Qualifications with sustained value
Tertiary study is an expensive investment. But many existing courses can better prepare you for the future workforce.
Here are the top four picks for optimising your investment and employment prospects now and into the future.
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The Institute for Working Futures December 2018
Programmer
(Vendor certified, e.g. MongoDB, CCT,
CCA Spark, CLA, MCSD)
Drone pilot license
(Drone remote operator CASA certified)
Cyber security certification
Project management
Micro-credentials with value
If you don’t want to invest as much money or time required to get a full qualification, here are examples of five short course where certificates or micro-credentials
(part of a qualification) can quickly reposition you into a sustainable future career. All the following have foundation courses that can be completed in less than 12
weeks. The following are ranked by advertised salary listed in employment vacancies (December 2018).
Human Centred Design
(Certified Design Thinking or HCD (e.g. IDEA HCD
101 free online course, or UX certification)
The Institute for Working Futures December 2018 21
Professor Marcus Bowles
Adjunct, Centre for Workforce Futures, Macquarie University
Director, The Institute for Working Futures pty ltd
Direct
M+61 412 439 009
mbowles@workingfutures.com.au
marcus.bowles@mq.edu.au
The Institute for Working Futures
pty. ltd. abn: 22 054 466 769