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The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People
Abstract
This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC).
This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals.
This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports.
... The effectiveness of KIP Kuliah can be measured by how well it improves access and quality of education for beneficiaries (Andrejevic, 2020;Owens, 2020;Wester, 2019). Higher education not only provides knowledge and skills, but also helps people to change their mindset and produce more qualified human resources. ...
KIP-College is one of the Social Security programs that serves to help students who want to enter college by providing academic assistance. This program meets the living needs of students, especially for those who have a poor economic background or lack of resources to enter college. The purpose of the KIP-Kuliah program is to address the problem of poverty in the community by providing assistance to underprivileged students to attend college, meet their living needs during college, and prosper from educational and economic deprivation. To carry out this KIP-College program, a qualitative approach is used, which includes the process of observation, interviews, and documentation sessions as concrete evidence. This shows that although the KIP-College program is not well-targeted, it has met the needs of educationally and financially disadvantaged students to attend university.
... High-mountain Asia underpins the water security of around 1.9 billion people, supplying them with fresh water for agriculture, energy, industry, and domestic usage via Asia's largest rivers (Wester et al., 2019;Immerzeel et al., 2020;Orr et al., 2022). In this area, precipitation drives river flow either directly through rain or indirectly by depositing snow reserves that are eventually released through glacier and snowmelt (Immerzeel et al., 2020). ...
The rivers of High-mountain Asia provide freshwater to around 1.9 billion people. However, precipitation, the main driver of river flow, is still poorly understood due to limited in situ measurements in this area. Existing tools to interpolate these measurements or downscale and bias-correct precipitation models have several limitations. To overcome these challenges, this paper uses a probabilistic machine learning approach called multi-fidelity Gaussian processes (MFGPs) to downscale the fifth ECMWF climate reanalysis (ERA5). The method is first validated by downscaling ERA5 precipitation data over data-rich Europe and then data-sparse upper Beas and Sutlej river basins in the Himalayas. We find that MFGPs are simpler to implement and more applicable to smaller datasets than other state-of-the-art machine learning methods. MFGPs are also able to quantify and narrow the uncertainty associated with the precipitation estimates, which is especially needed over ungauged areas and can be used to estimate the likelihood of extreme events that lead to floods or droughts. Over the upper Beas and Sutlej river basins, the precipitation estimates from the MFGP model are similar to or more accurate than available gridded precipitation products (APHRODITE, TRMM, CRU TS, and bias-corrected WRF). The MFGP model and APHRODITE annual mean precipitation estimates generally agree with each other for this region, with the MFGP model predicting slightly higher average precipitation and variance. However, more significant spatial deviations between the MFGP model and APHRODITE over this region appear during the summer monsoon. The MFGP model also presents a more effective resolution, generating more structure at finer spatial scales than ERA5 and APHRODITE. MFGP precipitation estimates for the upper Beas and Sutlej basins between 1980 and 2012 at a 0.0625° resolution (approx. 7 km) are jointly published with this paper.
... In the Himalayan and lower regions, demand for freshwater has increased manifold as a result of increasing population, expanding cultivation, increasing urbanization, and industrialization (Mall et al. 2006). Several studies have been conducted to understand the nature of cryospheric changes in the Himalayan region (Chand et al. 2019;Wester et al. 2019;Dimri et al. 2021;Kulkarni et al. 2021;Vishwakarma et al. 2022;Kumar and Sharma 2023;Ravindra et al. 2024) and to explore how susceptible communities are to its negative impacts (Rasul and Molden 2019;Dasgupta and Badola 2020;Tuladhar et al. 2021;Nie et al. 2024). Moreover, numerous studies have focused also on adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing the resilience of these communities in the face of severe climate and cryospheric change impacts (Nüsser et al. 2019;Rasul et al. 2020;Dahal et al. 2023;Maharjan et al. 2023;Namgyal and Sarkar 2023;Wangmo et al. 2023). ...
The research on climate and cryospheric change has primarily focused on snow, ice, permafrost, and water, with less attention given to how local communities perceive and experience these changes. Therefore, in this field-based study, we synthesized community observations and experiences of climate and cryosphere changes, as well as livelihood vulnerability and adaptation. Measurements of the actual climatic and cryospheric changes were also carried out, and comparisons between the measured and local people’s observations were conducted. For the study purpose two sub-watershed (Urgos and Biling) were selected in the Chandrabhaga basin, Lahaul region of the North-Western Himalaya, located at different altitudes, Urgos watershed at ~ 3160 to 4888 m and Biling watershed at ~ 2906 to 6071 m above sea level. In the Urgos and Billing watersheds, settlements exist between ~ 3160 to 3400 m and ~ 2900 to 3450 m a.s.l, respectively. Primary data were collected from 119 households for calculation of human, natural, physical, social and economic capitals, vulnerability, livelihood adaptive capacity, and community perception of climatic and cryospheric variability. Secondary data from the Census of India, Indian Meteorological Department, satellite imagery and the images available on the Google Earth Pro platform were used to verify changes in the region. Local communities reported more fluctuations in climate and substantial changes in the cryospheric system in the recent decades. The results of the study show that residents of the Urgos watershed are more vulnerable with an average score of 0.43 than residents of the Biling watershed with an average score of 0.29. People living in both watersheds are similar in terms of exposure, but the Urgos watershed sensitivity is higher due to its lesser adaptive capacity. Additionally, it was observed in the study area that social capital plays a significant role in community growth and development as well as the society’s ability to adapt.
... Sporadic research, since the early-mid 20th century, gained momentum after the initiation of the first Himalaya-Karakoram-Tibet (HKT) Workshop in the mid 1980s, and then continued at different global venues annually (e.g., Gautam et al., 2005). The Hindukush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) dedicated to monitoring and assessment of major issues such as climate change, biodiversity, energy, cryosphere (frozen water), water, food security, air pollution, disaster and resilience, poverty, adaptation, and gender and migration further promoted the study of the region (Wester et al., 2019). In this context, there is a strong need of a comprehensive bibliometric survey of the vast amount of research output by researchers from a large number of countries in the past. ...
A bibliometric survey of the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush-Tibet (HKHT) region, the largest mountain system on Earth, for research publications recorded in the Web of Science (WOS) during 1901-2018 revealed 46,746 citable documents (articles, reviews, letters and notes) showing exponential growth mainly after 1980s. The HKHT publications that cover 244 WOS subject categories (SCs) have been used to determine the relative shares by HKHT units, countries, research organizations and publication sources. Nine WOS SCs related to "earth, environmental and agricultural sciences" exhibit highest shares (22.6% to 3.2% of the total) by the whole counting method. Further analysis of the 1994-2018 subset related to 4 broader disciplinary classes (Geosciences, Environmental Sciences & Technologies, Agricultural Sciences, and Ecological Sciences) attributed to "field sciences" with particular emphasis on the high impact (TOP10% globally by citation) documents enables to capture the most prolific, representative (both in space and time) and impactful research. This study identifies the prolific countries, institutions, journals, etc. characterizing the cross-disciplinary research transcending national boundaries and involving international teams. Science mapping of high impact publications (4,561 documents) using the co-occurrence of keywords restricted to noun phrases reveals six prominent clusters that reflect the prolific and high impact research themes in field science for the whole HKHT region: five of them related to earth and environmental sciences (climate change including monsoon regime, tectonic evolution of the Himalaya-Tibet orogen, India-Asia collision and associated crustal phenomena, activities on major thrusts, channel flows and inverted metamorphism), and one contrasting theme concerning the genetic diversity of plants mainly of medicinal values.
Climate change is accelerating, and it is becoming clearer that the education sector in countries around the world will bear the brunt of the effects. Research into the impacts of climate change on schools and children as well as their engagement in responses is still sparse, albeit growing. In this paper, Bourdieu’s concepts of field, habitus, and capital are applied to better understand the practice of school climate response and the role schools may have in climate action. The analysis is based on interviews with Bhutanese school leaders, teachers, and district education officials. The results indicated that the school system and learners experienced multiple impacts and shocks. Opportunities to engage in practices for climate response were constrained by access to capital (cultural & economic) and policy and institutional structures. Socio-cultural dispositions showed a noteworthy influence on school stakeholders’ engagement in environmental and climate response interventions. Social capital acted as a catalyst for initiating environmental and climate change actions, carried out through collective school, community, and student-based activities. This research adds to the literature by exploring opportunities for social transformation that may lead to more effective practices in school climate action and more broadly, the scope of Bhutanese schools to respond to socio-scientific issues in science education.
The Himalaya is physically and biologically very complex and diverse. It is one of the youngest and loftiest of the mountain systems of the world. It is a biodiversity rich area having a distinctive climatic impact on lives of people in Asia. Major rivers of the region originate from the Himalayan Mountains providing the source of water for a large mass of population. Himalaya is a house to many crops of the world, natural wealth as well as indigenous societies and knowledge system. It is a rich repository of plant and animal wealth providing a source of livelihood to millions of people in the Asian region. Its significance lies in the fact that it has been recognised as among the 34 global biodiversity hotspots.
Due to anthropogenic activities–driven by the economic development model–like mining, road construction, dam construction, tourism, infrastructure development et al. and climate change there has been wide spread damage to fragile Himalayan ecosystem. The consequences of such developmental activities has far reaching consequences on the future of Himalayan ecosystem altering the course of nature and impacting human lives and societies depending on Himalaya and hence unsustainable for the earth. It is predicted that the anthropogenic activities in and around Himalayas shall have significant consequences regionally and globally raising questions about natural resources, ecology, sustainability, loss of habitat by species, human rights, livelihood of people in the region.
The present model of development solely premised on the anthropocentricism has caused enormous harm to Himalayan ecology. It has ignored the traditional conservation model adopted by traditional inhabitants bringing great destruction to the Himalaya which has global implications.
In the light of the above this chapter will discuss the consequences of anthropogenic activities on the Himalayan ecosystem. Moreover, it will explore the sustainability of anthropogenic activities and how that can be helpful to the planet. Moreover, it will offer few suggestions for the improvement of the Himalayan ecosystem which will be advantageous to the present as well as future generations.
Afghanistan, a nation already challenged by geopolitical and environmental pressure, faces severe climate change impacts, evident through rising temperatures, decreasing precipitation, and reduced river discharge. These changes profoundly affect the country’s water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and well-being. This study analyzes trends in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and river discharge across all five of Afghanistan’s river basins from 1980 to 2022, utilizing an innovative trend analysis (ITA), the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and Sen’s slope (SS) estimator. Climate data were derived from the CRU TS.v4 and TerraClimate gridded datasets, while river discharge data were obtained from GloFAS-ERA5 datasets. The results reveal significant climate shifts, including a notable 1.5 °C rise in mean annual temperature, significantly higher than the global average of 1.3 °C, a 1.2 mm decrease in mean annual precipitation, and a −128 m3/s reduction in river discharge across all basins since 1980. Climate change impacts were particularly severe in the western part of the country. These findings underscore the strain on Afghanistan’s vulnerable water resources, with critical implications for agriculture and water management, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate climate-induced risks.
Mountains are unique terrestrial ecosystems characterized by distinct physiography, biological diversity, and socio-economic features. These ecosystems provide numerous essential goods and services to communities within and beyond the mountains. Despite their significance, comprehensive studies that thoroughly characterize the ecosystem services of mountains are lacking. Such research is crucial to advance scientific understanding of mountain characteristics and ecosystem services. This study investigates mountain regions’ unique characteristics and ecosystem services using global datasets such as the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment (GMBA), NASA EARTHDATA, and other relevant databases and literature review. The focus was to explore unique physiographic and socio-economic characteristics and ecosystem services provided by mountains. The results indicate that mountain ecosystems are pivotal in offering provisional, regulatory, and supporting ecosystem services on Earth. Despite their limited geographical area, these ecosystems supply substantial amounts of freshwater to communities living within and downstream of mountainous regions. Additionally, mountain ecosystems serve as global biodiversity hotspots, harboring a significant proportion of the world’s species. However, mountain ecosystems face numerous natural and anthropogenic challenges, including climate change, habitat destruction, and resource overexploitation. Current efforts towards sustainable mountain development are inadequate. Enhanced scientific research and targeted policy measures are essential to address these challenges, protect mountain biodiversity, and ensure the continuous provision of vital ecosystem services.
The Himalayan high-altitude eco-regions exhibit higher plant species diversity, and several environmental factors play a crucial role in shaping species distribution and diversity. The aim of the present study is to investigate the floristic composition, distribution of endemic, threatened and native taxa across the elevation zones and the effect of various environmental factors on species richness pattern along the elevation gradient in Pangi, a remote high-altitude region of Himalaya. We conducted extensive field surveys covering 31 localities and established elevational transects for assessing species distribution and the factors affecting thereof. Additionally, information on nativity, endemism, and IUCN red-list categories of threatened species were compiled from published and online resources. Data were analysed using regression model and Non-Metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling (NMDS). In the present study, we recorded a total of 771 plant species across the region. In regression model, the elevation and anthropogenic variables and their interaction showed significant negative effects on the species richness. Species richness was found to decrease with the increasing elevation, showing a humped shaped pattern, with maximum richness observed in the mid-elevations (2,400m to 3,300m above sea level). The pattern of distribution of native and non-native species along the elevation gradient showed opposite trends, and proportion of native species increased towards the higher elevations. Further, NMDS ordination suggests that zone-I (2,100–2,500m asl) and zone-V (4,001–4,500m asl) had highest differences in species composition, while zone-I, zone-II (2,501–3,000m asl), and zone-III (3,001–3,500m asl) showed higher affinity with respect to their species composition. Thus, the present study revealed that remote and hitherto un-explored Pangi eco-region is rich in floristic diversity and provides pertinent information on the species distribution and composition, and various underlying factors influencing the richness patterns, which is necessary for framing suitable conservation strategies, management plans and futuristic population studies.
As the global climate scenario is leading towards warmer and dryer conditions, mountain ecosystems and their biota are among the most vulnerable because they are determined by low-temperature conditions. Owing to this, these ecosystems can be used as indicators for climate warming impacts. The present study uses a standardized multi-summit approach as outlined in the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environment (GLORIA) protocol to assess the temporal dynamics of vegetation in alpine to nival summits (ranging from 3773 m to 4266 m asl) in the western Himalaya. The summits were first established during 2014-15 and surveyed to document baseline vegetation data and then resurveyed after a period of five years. Between the baseline and resurvey datasets, we observed an overall significant increase in mean species richness (6.3%) and vegetation cover (13%). An apparent increase in species turnover (βsim) was observed in resurvey, accompanied by a decrease in nestedness (βsne), suggesting that temporal variation in β-diversity is being influenced mainly by species replacement, which in near future can lead to changes in the composition/assembly of plant communities. Accordingly, a shift in the vegetation composition at the summits was also evident in the Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) biplots. We provide evidence that this shift in composition favours a more warm-adapted plant community over the years, described here as thermophilization of mountain summits indicated by a significantly positive value of thermophilization indicator, D = 0.0345. Interestingly, temporal increase in plant diversity indices were pronouncedly higher in subnival and nival plots. Similar to diversity indices, lower elevation vegetation zones i.e., subalpine and alpine, exhibited a negative thermophilization indicator. Species-specific changes showed a marked increase in plot occupancy and cover of warmer-adapted species with distribution centres in lower elevations (alpine, treeline), which may lead to increased competition for cold adapted nival rare species in the near future. Thus, in view of the projected climate warming, the observed signals in the Himalayan Mountains suggest an initiation of community transformation in high-altitudes which may lead to local extinctions of alpine plant species.
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