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The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People
Abstract
This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC).
This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals.
This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports.
... Evaluating forest community composition and structure is crucial for comprehending tree population dynamics and diversity [9,10]. Himalayan forests, typically governed by low temperatures, are particularly vulnerable to the pronounced effects of climate change [11]. Comparing current vegetation with historical patterns allows for tracking ongoing changes in Himalayan forests. ...
... During the summer season, maximum density was recorded in the QL-QF-RA community (40.51 individuals m −2 ) and minimum in the PR-QL (N) community (6.31 individuals m −2 ). Maximum species diversity was recorded in the QL-QF-RA community (64), and the minimum was recorded in the PR-QL community in the north aspect (11). The minimum concentration of dominance was recorded in the QL-RA community (0.046), and the maximum was recorded in the PR community (0.192). ...
... Horvitz et al. (1998) suggested that competitive dynamics in the herbaceous layer may influence the initial success of plants in upper strata, particularly affecting the regeneration of dominant tree species [54]. In the present study, species richness for shrubs ranged from 10 to 14, which was comparable with Rana and Gairola (2009) (10)(11)(12) [55] and lower than Dar and Sundarapandian (2016) (3-9) [51]. Species richness of herbs of all three seasons ranged from 8 to 78, which was lower than Rawat et al. (2015) [56] from Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (18-107) and Dar and Sundarapandian (2016) [51] from temperate forests of Kashmir Himalaya . ...
Ecosystem functioning and management are primarily concerned with addressing climate change and biodiversity loss, which are closely linked to carbon stock and species diversity. This research aimed to quantify forest understory (shrub and herb) diversity , tree biomass and carbon sequestration in the Binsar Wildlife Sanctuary. Using random sampling methods, data were gathered from six distinct forest communities. The study identified 271 vascular plants from 208 genera and 74 families. A notable positive correlation (r 2 = 0.085, p < 0.05) was observed between total tree density and total tree basal area (TBA), shrub density (r 2 = 0.09), tree diversity (D) (r 2 = 0.58), shrub diversity (r 2 = 0.81), and tree species richness (SR) (r 2 = 0.96). Conversely, a negative correlation was found with the concentration of tree dominance (CD) (r 2 = 0.43). The Quercus leucotrichophora, Rhododendron arboreum and Quercus floribunda (QL-RA-QF) community(higher altitudinal zone) exhibited the highest tree biomass (568.8 Mg ha −1), while the (Pinus roxburghii and Quercus leucotrichophora) PR-QL (N) community (lower altitudinal zone) in the north aspect showed the lowest (265.7 Mg ha −1). Carbon sequestration was highest in the Quercus leu-cotrichophora, Quercus floribunda and Rhododendron arboreum (QL-QF-RA) (higher altitudinal zone) community (7.48 Mg ha −1 yr −1) and lowest in the PR-QL (S) (middle altitudinal zone) community in the south aspect (5.5 Mg ha −1 yr −1). The relationships between carbon stock and various functional parameters such as tree density, total basal area of tree and diversity of tree showed significant positive correlations. The findings of the study revealed significant variations in the structural attributes of trees, shrubs and herbs across different forest stands along altitudinal gradients. This current study's results highlighted the significance of wildlife sanctuaries, which not only aid in wildlife preservation but also provide compelling evidence supporting forest management practices that promote the planting of multiple vegetation layers in landscape restoration as a means to enhance biodiversity and increase resilience to climate change. Further, comprehending the carbon storage mechanisms of these forests will be critical for developing environmental management strategies aimed at alleviating the impacts of climate change in the years to come.
... Consequently, the decision was made to separate clusters based on average temperature. An interesting observation is the alignment of cluster points after segregation based on average temperature, following the orientation of the Himalayan Mountains in the region, as discussed by (Wester et al., 2019). ...
Recent studies show variations in precipitation‐gridded data set accuracy with changing geographical parameters. Ensemble precipitation products, combining diverse data sets, offer global‐scale effectiveness, but applying them to regional studies, particularly in small to medium‐sized sub‐basins, presents challenges in addressing precipitation dependence on specific geographical conditions. Here, we present a newly developed Clusters Based‐Minimum Error approach to assimilate different open‐source gridded precipitation data sets for forming an accurate precipitation product over small to medium‐sized hilly terrain basins, with limited precipitation gauges. This methodology generates the New Gridded Precipitation Data Set (NGPD) from 1991 to 2022 for the Upper Ganga Basin in the western Himalaya, covering approximately 22,292 km². The study utilizes nine open‐source gridded precipitation data sets and 11 observed precipitation gauges, NGPD is evaluated through station‐wise, grid‐wise, and elevation‐wise analyses using statistical parameters, quantile‐quantile plots, daily coefficient of determination, Rainfall Anomaly Index, and seasonality/precipitation pattern analyses. Results demonstrate the superior performance of NGPD compared to other gridded precipitation sources across various evaluation metrics. Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Coefficient of determination (R²), and Root mean squared error (RMSE) range from 0.67 to 0.90, 0.73–0.93, and 4.4–10.69 mm/day, respectively, w.r.t 11 observed precipitation gauges. NGPD outperforms the widely used IMD data set in India, exhibiting a monthly scale improvement of 18.47% and 17.7% in average NSE and R² values, respectively. Additionally, the methodology is also successfully applied to the Tamor Basin in Nepal, proving its reliability for various Himalayan regions. This approach reliably creates accurate gridded precipitation data sets for hilly sub‐basins, especially in Himalayan regions with limited station data.
... The adaptation processes to climate change also involve gendering, as certain activities gradually become associated with specific roles for women and men (Onta and Resurreccion 2011). It has been noted gender represents distinct social roles, while age indicates levels of experience (Wester et al. 2019). It has been observed that rural females with gender-specific vulnerabilities such as limited access to education, being a daughter-in-law and adherence to purdah, also faced numerous climate vulnerabilities as members of Scheduled Tribes, Scheduled Castes, or Other Backward Classes (Bridges 2016). ...
Climate change poses a significant threat to the lives and livelihoods of local communities in the Himalayan regions. These regions do not have an extensive network of meteorological stations due to poor infrastructure for climate change studies. Understanding how the local community perceives climate change provides an important insight into specific features of climate change in the data-scarce regions. This study aimed to understand how local communities of Manipur in northeast India have perceived climate change, including its causes and impacts, its influences on their life and their responses. In this study, a survey was conducted in the valley and hill regions of Manipur on local community perceptions of climate change. The survey sample comprised of 193 randomly selected local inhabitants in both the regions. Through this survey, we aimed to determine how local communities respond to the effects of climate change in the study area based on their personal experiences. The results indicated that the local community has fairly strong perceptions of climate change with more than 80% of respondents reporting a change in the cultivation patterns and agricultural productivity have been changing over the years. Another 98% of the respondents acknowledged a change in “summer temperature” over the past 15–20 years as a result of climate change. Further, the majority of respondents (> 97%) are concerned that climate change may increase the frequency of natural disasters in the state. The consistency of this local’s perception with meteorological data was also evaluated. The annual mean temperature had increased at a rate of 0.027 and 0.024 °C/year in the valley and hill, respectively, while the annual precipitation declined at a rate of 0.08 and 0.12 mm/year in the valley and hill, respectively, in the past 44 years (1979–2022). The results reveal an overall consistency between local community perceptions of climate change and the scientific observations of these changes. A better understanding of how communities perceive climate change would enable decision-makers to devise local adaptation measures and formulate an effective mitigation strategy that efficiently tackles the negative impact of climate change impacts.
... The Himalayas are facing consequences of the ongoing climate change such as rising temperatures, extreme precipitation, glacier retreat, thawing, and reduced snow cover [1]. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols are known to be the key drivers behind this climate change. ...
... Uttarakhand is a pertinent context to analyse such dynamics for three reasons. First, its geographical location within the Indian Himalayan Region, makes it a hotspot for climate change-related risks including glacial melt, flash floods, cloud bursts, heatwaves, and shifting rainfall patterns (ICIMOD 2023; Krishnan et al. 2019;Kulkarni et al. 2013;Singh et al. 2023;Wester et al. 2019). Second, in the last decade, climate change has significantly influenced migration decisions, particularly due to its detrimental effects on agriculture-sustaining 70% of the population (GU 2017;Naudiyal et al. 2019)-which has led to increased outmigration due to unreliable agricultural outcomes (Naudiyal et al. 2019;Siddiqui et al. 2019a;Tiwari and Joshi 2015;Upadhyay et al. 2021). ...
Within the migration system, the seminal Foresight report highlighted that climate change can have significant implications for staying populations. Yet research on this remains limited. This study aims to fill this gap by assessing the impacts of sustained outmigration on staying farmer communities in the Indian Himalayan Region, affected by incremental climate change. Employing an empirical qualitative approach, new data is collected through semi-structured interviews (n = 72). Staying communities describe migration as good, bad, and necessary with the majority (46%) noting negative impacts such as fewer people to do agriculture, abandoned assets, more tasks for women, loss of community, disrupted household structures, mental health implications for the elderly, and disinvestment in public services. While remittances from migration have positive impacts, they are primarily used for meeting everyday needs (81%) and not invested in climate change adaptation. In addition to migration impacts, changing weather patterns, agricultural shifts, and societal transformations further exacerbate the vulnerabilities of staying populations. Without policy support to address these vulnerabilities, the benefits of migration may not effectively contribute to climate change adaptation. The findings here are likely applicable to staying populations in other mountain areas, facing similar pressures from migration and climate change, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to build long-term adaptive capacity.
... Landslides, debris flows, avalanches, flash floods, glacial lake outburst floods, mudslides, and rockfalls constitute main natural hazards in the mountain regions [1,2]. Of these, snow avalanches are one of the serious natural hazards that commonly occur in snow-covered mountains, defined as a sudden mass movement of snow and ice on mountain slopes with the downhill trajectory exceeding 50 m, sometimes containing portions of rocks, soil, and vegetation [3,4]. ...
Snow avalanche is one of the major natural hazards in the mountain region, yet it has received less attention compared to other mountain hazards, such as landslides, floods, and droughts. After a comprehensive overview of snow avalanche hazards in Tibet area, the spatial distribution and main driving factors of snow avalanche hazards in the high mountain region in Tibet were presented in the study first. Snow avalanche-prone areas in Tibet were then mapped based on the snow cover distribution and DEM data and were validated against in situ observations. Results show that there are the highest frequencies of avalanche occurrences in the southeastern Nyainqentanglha Mountains and the southern slope of the Himalayas. In the interior of plateau, avalanche development is constrained due to less precipitation and much flatter terrain. The perennially snow avalanche-prone areas in Tibet account for 1.6% of the total area of the plateau, while it reaches 2.9% and 4.9% of the total area of Tibet in winter and spring, respectively. Snow avalanche hazards and fatalities appear to be increasing trends under global climate warming due to more human activities at higher altitudes. In addition to the continuous implementation of engineering prevention and control measures in pivotal regions in southeastern Tibet, such as in the Sichuan–Tibet highway and railway sections, enhancing monitoring, early warning, and forecasting services are crucial to prevent and mitigate avalanche hazards in the Tibetan high mountain regions, which has significant implications for other global high mountain areas.
South Asia, home to nearly one-fourth of the global population, relies heavily on its water resources, especially for agriculture. Among these nations, Bangladesh, positioned downstream of the Ganga, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) Basins, faces acute challenges intensified by climate change. This chapter explores the impacts of climate variability on the water sector in South Asia, emphasising the GBM basins. It highlights the increasing frequency of extreme weather events in Bangladesh, such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, which disrupt water management and agricultural cycles, thereby threatening food security. To address these challenges, Bangladesh must adopt climate-resilient water management strategies, including sustainable conservation practices and efficient irrigation techniques. Enhanced governance structures, improved stakeholder coordination, and resilient infrastructure are crucial. The chapter also underscores the importance of integrating climate change into water resource planning, as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and advocates for collaborative efforts among government entities, local communities, and international partners. Through case studies, it examines adaptive governance measures and draws conclusions on regional adaptation strategies, highlighting the need for institutional reforms and investments in climate adaptation to safeguard livelihoods and ensure a sustainable water future for Bangladesh.
Based on the life histories of 10 poor rural Nepalese, the article, drawing on the metaphor of dance, explores the structured improvisations of these individuals in response to the hazards and possibilities they have found in life. Key themes of repertoires and risk pools, time preference behaviour and disposition or hope are explored. While land remains central to risk pools, contributing to subsistence and security, it is insufficient. The improvisatory nature of life and the contingent and contextual nature of the choice architecture faced by these poor individuals, make clear that pathways of change are not constant or linear. The gathering storm of crises in Nepal of which climate change is just one element has rendered customary time frames unstable. The normal can no longer be taken for granted, questioning how policy and planning can address the hazard-laden environment that poor people face.
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