Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity And The Potential Development Of The Northern Sea Route For Commercial Shipping

Full text

JATI-Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Volume 23(2) 2018, 25-46
25
SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION MARITIME
CONNECTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHERN SEA
ROUTE FOR COMMERCIAL SHIPPING
Hanizah Idris* & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
(*First author)
Department of Southeast Asian Studies, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences,
University of Malaya
(wafa@um.edu.my, fareastramly@gmail.com)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22452/jati.vol23no2.2
Abstract
Today the Suez Canal remains the traditional sea route where cargoes
transported between the Far East and Europe, and vice versa. However, the
most important international waterway is the Straits of Malacca situated in the
Southeast Asian region where it is estimated more than 80,000 vessels are
plying through the straits annually. There was recently an interest to venture
into a new route namely the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route
between Europe, and the Far East and vice versa. This paper aims to explain
the background of the international trade and shipping at the Straits of
Malacca. Secondly, to explain the importance of the NSR in facilitates
commercial shipping and trade in the Artic Region. Thirdly, to analyses the
NSR’s commercial potential and economic importance as an alternative route
for commercial shipping and trade with Asian Region and finally to analyses
the challenges and constraints of the NSR including the physical aspects of the
route which is in ice conditions most of the time around a year. Findings show
that Singapore had shown its interest by becoming a member of the Artic
Council, while other countries in the region including Malaysia needs to take
into consideration the potential of the NSR as an alternative shipping route in
the future to overcome some long-standing issues related to the traffic
congestion at the Straits of Malacca.
Keywords: maritime connectivity, Southeast Asia, Northern Sea Route, commercial
shipping, port infrastructure

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
26
Introduction
Southeast Asia region is strategically located at the crossing of the Indian
Ocean and the South China Sea. The region is home of importance oceans,
seas, and straits that formed one of the busiest international sea lines of
communications (SLOCs). The South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca play
a vital role in the international trade and shipping and considered chokepoints
in the system of SLOCs. The region is also considered as one of the richest
biodiversity areas, a center of gravity for a wider Asia-Pacific region and rich
with oil. Off the 87 barrels of oil produced per day in 2011, approximately 15.2
million passed through the Straits of Malacca, the shortest route between
Africa and Persian Gulf suppliers and Asian market. This is some 19 percent
the amount passed through the Panama Canal and four times more than the
volume passed through the Suez Canal over the same period. Maritime
Southeast Asia is always important as a center of trading and shipping
activities. Economies of scale have given development trends in world
shipping which focusing on container handling.
Today, Asian container trade accounted for an almost 60 percent share
of world container throughput with East Asia as the dominant sub-region
while Singapore and Malaysia are the best-connected ports in Southeast Asia
via Straits of Malacca. Containerization completely changed the world’s
commercial geography with the emergence of an array of new port locations,
the top being Asia Pacific ports along to Tokyo-Singapore corridor, notably
Chinese ports, surged. In the meanwhile, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is only
significant for arctic shipping with limited access. However, in terms of
maritime connectivity, there is a possibility to open the sea route for
commercial shipping activities in the near future where the NSR was identified
as an alternative sea route to the traditional links via Suez and Panama
between the Atlantic and the Pacific.
Therefore, this paper attempts to examine the maritime connectivity in
the Southeast Asian region and NSR regarding its potential for commercial
shipping and port developments. It will be examined in three aspects, first, in
the context of maritime connectivity in the Southeast Asian region, secondly,
the maritime activity on the NSR, and finally, the potential development of
NSR as a commercial shipping route. A study on the Arctic trade is relatively
new especially to countries with a status of none arctic state like Malaysia. For
a long time, Arctic Region is only significant to those arctic coastal states like
Russia, Norway, Canada, Sweden and Finland and the interest on it was
minimal.

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
27
Today, with the change in climate, maritime trading nations, especially
in Europe and East Asia, had shown their interest in exploring the possibility
of using the NSR for commercial shipping. Globally, with a new political
willingness, Singapore already accepted as a Permanent Observer at the Arctic
Council in May 2013 along with Japan and Korea. Eventually, this will open
up new involvement from other Asian countries including Malaysia in terms
of research and the possibility of getting involved in the Arctic trade in the
future by analyzing the above aspects.
Geographically, the Arctic is composed of the Arctic Ocean together
with the Northern-most territorial reaches of various countries. The arctic area
can be defined by various criteria, including by the Northern Polar Circle, and
thus within 66.5’N. Latitude (Jensen, 2007). Approximately 90 percent of the
sea is permanently ice-covered while the rest is constituted by the territories of
the United States (Alaska), the Russian Federation, Norway, Denmark
(Greenland), Canada, as well as many islands under the sovereignty of these
countries. The Canadian Arctic is mostly an area of destination for traffic
calling at ports there. The Northeast Passage (NEP) is an Arctic Ocean
shipping route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans through the
archipelago of Canada. NEP traverses from West to East the Barents Sea, Kara
Sea, Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukchi Sea and it includes the
Northern Sea Route (NSR). As to the Russian Arctic, the NSR has become the
focus of shipping. It stretches approximately 2,800 kilometers along the
Russian Arctic coast from Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Straits.
The discovery of the NSR is one of the most outstanding achievements
for the development of North Russia. The length of the NSR from the Kara
Strait to the Providence Bay is about 5600 km (History of Northern Sea Route).
It became the shortest waterway between the European part of Russia and the
Far East. It is a huge advantage compared to shipping routes that are widely
used the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal. The distance from Saint-
Petersburg to Vladivostok via NSR is 14 280 km, via the Suez Canal is 23 200
km, around of Cape of Good Hope is 29 400 km (History of Northern Sea
Route). The NSR may serve as the shortest way between Western Europe and
the Asia-Pacific Region. Thus it is possible that it should play an important
part in the global process of economic development.
Currently, the Straits of Malacca serves as an important shipping route linking
Asian and European trade and connecting the Indian Ocean to the South
China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.
Recent political and economic changes in Russia have altered official
attitudes about international use of the sea route. The authorities are currently

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
28
encouraging foreign interest in shipping across top Eurasia (Drent, 1993). The
use of the Arctic Ocean as a short-cut between Europe and Asia/North
America has now been limited. The Arctic is still too icy and treacherous for
open-water ships to traverse with any regularity. The NSR is only navigable
during the summer months once every seven years or so and too unreliable for
commercial shipping. Recent development on Arctic research today is the
Arctic is warming much faster roughly twice as much as the global average,
2’Celsius increase in global temperatures would mean Arctic warming of 3’-6’
Celsius. As the ice caps retreats, shipping lanes are opening. Thus it will
encourage other trading nations to take into consideration the advantages by
using the Arctic shipping routes especially the NSR.
Literature review and methodology
There were several studies conducted on maritime connectivity globally but
not many studies or literature focusing on the Southeast Asian region. The
development of maritime connectivity is essential for commercial, economic
growth, particularly in the region. Since the end of the Second World War,
most Southeast countries had given emphasize on domestic development like
building infrastructure such as roads, rails and telecommunications (Thomas
& Chia, 1998). At the same time, the region needs to be connected in terms of
maritime transport to enable import and export activities that will promote
economic growth. Since almost 90 percent of cargoes are transporting through
the sea, the Straits of Malacca remain important an international route for
merchant shipping and international trade (Hanizah Idris & Hanafi Hussin,
2018; Khalid, 2012; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
[UNCTAD], 2017). As the volume of seaborne trade grows, so as the increase
of traffics at the Straits of Malacca that amounted to 90,000 vessels plying the
straits annually (Hanizah Idris, 2018). On the other side, the increase in cargos
transported between the Far East and Europe using the navigation via Suez
Canal had created a congestion problem and the total time (waiting time +
canal crossing) spends at this area is longer compared to the past 10-15 years
(Abdul, Abdul, & Rasdi, 2016).
This had brought to the discussion on the use of NSR in the Artic
Region as an alternative route for the Straits of Malacca due to the global
warming that could potentially enable merchant shipping to be carried out
between northern East Asia and northern Europe all year long. This could
have repercussion on trade related to ports in the East Asian region and could
well impact the interests of Malaysian ports and shipping companies (Khalid,

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
29
2012). In 2013, Singapore had shown its interest in the Arctic shipping by
becoming an active member of Artic Council together with China, Korea, and
Japan. Consequently, the NSR is identified as the most promising Arctic
seaway with a considerable potential to shorten sailing distances from Europe
to Asia and vice versa (Toccheto, Tancredi, Araujo, & Noronha, 2014). In order
to strengthen the maritime economy, decision strategies are crucial for port
development and maritime activities in the Southeast Asian region.
The methodology used in carrying out this study is based on report
analysis, which provides empirical evidence related to maritime development
and maritime connectivity in general. Data collections were extracted from
Annual Reports, bulletins, and official reports from Maritime Institute of
Malaysia (MIMA), ASEAN Master Plans on ASEAN Connectivity, United
Nation Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Asian
Development Bank (ADB), and the World Bank. Information is gathered
through these reports since there are not many kinds of literature published on
the maritime connectivity of the Southeast Asian Region and Northern Sea
Route.
Maritime Connectivity in the Southeast Asian Region
The importance of maritime connectivity is essential to condition for economic
growth. Transports links do not only provide physical excess to resources but
also enable producers to take advantages of opportunities in the domestic and
foreign market, leading to an economy of scale and specialization (Trace,
Frielink, & Hew, 2009). In a globalized world, efficient connections between
the Southeast region and international markets are essential. Improved
connectivity at a regional level widens the potential market available to local
producers, providing opportunities to specialize in agricultural or industrial
production. Since the bulk of the Southeast Asia region’s international trade is
carried by sea, access to high-quality international shipping services is of
paramount importance (Trace et al., 2009).
Southeast Asia is an archipelagic region, consisting of thousands of
islands poorly connected that have strategic value for many countries outside
the region (Toccheto et al., 2014). It is a region with a total population of
approximately 600 million and the fact that Indonesia’s population is over 200
million is very well known (Osborne, 2013). There are important straits located
in the region like the Straits of Malacca, the Straits of Singapore and the Straits
of Sunda which are significant for international trade (Figure 1). The Straits of
Malacca being the second important international sea route is a narrow

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
30
passage with a total length of the waterway between the extremities is 500
nautical miles or 800 km long and the width of the straits a varies, being 200
nautical miles at its widest point and narrowing funnel-like to the southern
extremity of only 11 nautical miles (Nordin Hussin, 2008). One of the main
issues of the region is the depth of the ports and straits that can prevent bigger
ships from passing the straits.
Historically, maritime connectivity in the region started way back
during the glorious maritime kingdoms like Srivijaya, Majapahit, Malacca, and
Temasek (Singapore). These were great seaports and foci of communications
which developed in response to the increasing volume of seaborne trade in the
Malay waters (Nordin Hussin, 2008). The region was connected with the
Indian Ocean and the Far East (China and Japan) by the South China Sea and
passed through the Straits of Malacca to the West and the Middle East
(Hanizah Idris, Tan, & Mohammad Raduan Mohd. Ariff, 2008). The
importance of the Strait of Malacca in global trade continued with the rise of
Malacca Sultanate in the fifteenth century, followed by the rise of Singapore as
a modern emporium in the nineteenth century under the colonial era.
Singapore was founded by the British in 1819 although it has been discovered
earlier in the fourteenth century and was known as Temasek.
Figure 1: Maritime shipping route including the Straits of Malacca
Source: Urban Gallery (n.d.).
During the British Era, Singapore was developed as a regional port
controlling the East-West trade via the Straits of Malacca. The British had
succeeded in making Singapore as the center of communications at that time

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
31
and became the center of British administration in the region (Hanizah Idris et
al., 2008). Many foreign merchants have found it more economical and reliable
to purchase their goods from ports along the Straits. Apart from being the
main ports of transshipment, these entreports were also major export centres
for local products from the Malay Archipelago (Nordin Hussin, 2008).
Today, the Straits of Singapore became among the world’s busiest
commercial routes, being considered the location of the second largest port in
the world, the port of Singapore. The volume of shipping is three times that
navigate through the Panama Canal and double that uses the Suez Canal.
Nearly one-third of the 61 percent of total global petroleum and other liquids
that moved on maritime routes transited the Straits of Malacca in 2015. More
than 94,000 vessels pass through the Straits every year carrying one-fourth of
the world’s traded goods, including approximately 15.2 million barrels of oil
per day in 2015 (Wijeratne & Clayton, 2018).
Figure 2: World ports concentration which focuses on Asia
Source: “Mapping supply chains in the global economy” (2014).
Figure 2 shows the world ports concentrated which focus in Asia with
developing economies like China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia.
While Port Klang and the port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) which are located at
the Straits of Malacca were among the top 20 container ports in the world
(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development [UNCTAD], 2017), the

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
32
total cargo handling by these ports had reached almost 50 million twenty
equivalent units (TEU) per year, where almost 30 million TEU are handled by
Singapore Port.
Table 1 shows Southeast Asian major ports namely the Port of
Singapore, Port Klang and PTP and other major ports in the world with the
port of Shanghai being the highest in terms of container handling followed by
Singapore. The total throughput handling by the top 20 world container ports
also shows an increase from 254 543 912 million TEU in 2014 to 274 364 468
million TEU in 2016 despite the slowing down in the global economy due to
weaker world economic growth.
Currently, the Straits of Malacca and the Straits of Singapore had to
receive an average of 140,000 vessels annually. The major ports along the
straits namely Singapore Port, Penang Port, Port Klang, PTP, and Belawan port
continued to play a vital role in international trade and shipping in the region.
Figure 3 shows the crude oil trade flows from major ports in East Asia
including China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Japan to selected ports located in the
Southeast Asian region namely Singapore and Malaysia, by pass Indonesia
and the Philippines.
In terms of maritime connectivity in the region, many areas of
mainland Southeast Asia are still poorly connected like Cambodia, Laos,
Myanmar, and Vietnam, known as CLMV countries. Even, the maritime
countries like the Philippines and Indonesia are still struggling in providing
port and shipping infrastructure and facilities. There are facing problems in
developing infrastructure and connectivity including rails, roads and also
maritime connectivity. Therefore, improving physical maritime connectivity
with those countries is essential to achieve greater integration within the
region economically and socially. Most of the gateway ports of Southeast Asia
are already “fairly full” which means the investments in capacity expansions
would have to be made in order to meet the growth in trade expected from the
deeper economic integration of the ASEAN Member States among themselves
with the rest of the world (Master plan on ASEAN connectivity, 2011).
Maritime transport is the most important mode of transportation in
terms of the traffic volume in international trade. Southeast Asian region is
blessed with a geographic deposition favourable to maritime trade. The access
to major sea lanes provides connectivity to the global markets. Singapore port
and Malaysian ports, Port Klang and port of Tanjung Pelepas remain under
top 20 world container ports, whereas other ports in Southeast Asian countries
like Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines were ranked from 22 to
35 respectively.

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
33
Table 1: Top 20 world container ports, 2014-2016 million (TEU)
Ports
2014
2015
2016
Shanghai
35 290 000
36 540 000
37 135 000
Singapore
33 869 000
30 922 000
30 930 000
Shenzen
20 040 000
24 200 000
23 980 000
Ningbo &
Zhoushan
19 450 000
20 630 000
21 565 000
Hong Kong
22 200 000
20 100 000
19 580 000
Busan
18 683 000
19 467 000
19 378 000
Guangzhou
16 610 000
17 590 000
18 859 000
Qingdao
16 580 000
17 430 000
18 050 000
Dubai
15 200 000
15 590 000
14 772 000
Rotterdam
12 298 000
12 235 000
12 385 000
Tianjin
14 060 000
14 110 000
14 523 000
Kaohsiung
10 593 000
10 260 000
10 460 000
Port Klang
10 946 000
11 887 000
13 167 000
Hamburg
9 720 000
8 821 000
8 900 000
Antwerp
8 978 000
9 654 000
10 037 000
Los Angeles
8 340 000
8 160 000
8 857 000
Tanjung Pelepas
8 500 000
9 130 000
8 029 000
Xiamen
8 572 000
9 180 000
9 614 000
Dalian
10 130 000
9 450 000
9 584 000
Long Beach
6 818 000
7 190 000
6 775 000
Total throughput
of 20 container
port
254 543 912
274 364 468
274 364 468
Sources: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2016,
p. 69); United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2017.
p. 65).
Singapore and Malaysia are the countries with the best state-of-the-art
port infrastructure of the region, but even so, they need investments in order
to achieve greater capacity, as they are big hubs (Toccheto et al., 2014).
According to Asia Development Bank, from 2010 to 2020, Asia will need to
invest around U$8 trillion in overall national infrastructure, and in addition,
about U$290 billion in specific regional infrastructure projects (Trace et al.,
2009). The Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (2011) identifies public-private
partnerships (PPPs) as a way to coordinate government and private sector
actions in developing infrastructure projects of the region.

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
34
Figure 3: South China Sea Oil, LNG trade routes
Source: Quoted from “The South China Sea is an important world
energy trade route” (2013).
For the past ten years, Malaysian ports had aggressively improved
their connectivity by providing a more conducive environment for global
supply chain and by offering integrated inter-modal services on a “door-to-
door” basis. Malaysian premier ports Port Klang and PTP involved in massive
expansion including the building of new berths and containers yards that
subsequently raises their total annual handling to 21 million TEUs in 2016. The
efficient port services at PTP, have led major container liner companies such as
Maersk and Evergreen to introduce more service calls at the port (Hanizah
Idris, 2018).
In terms of international shipping growth and development, although
the international seaborne trade is still influenced by the Great Recession
(2009), there are other developments that can stimulate the seaborne trade
especially for developing countries in the Asian region. They include
infrastructure development initiatives, developments in trade policy and
liberalization, population growth and urbanization and the growing use of e-
commerce (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
[UNCTAD), 2016). In 2015, a number of infrastructure development and

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
35
expansion were announced, launched or completed, to improving
connectivity, enhancing access to suppliers and consumers and enabling trade
and regional integration (United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development [UNCTAD], 2016). Such initiatives included the construction,
expansion and improvement of logistics infrastructure and physical assets
such as Panama Canal and Suez Canal, as well as One Belt, One Road initiative
in China and the joint Japan-Asian Development Bank Partnership for Quality
infrastructure (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
[UNCTAD), 2016); Hanizah Idris, 2018).
Launched in 2013, the One Belt, One Road initiative aims to establish
new trading routes, links and business opportunities by further connecting
China, Asia, Europe, Africa and countries with economies in transitions along
five routes. Meanwhile, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
has a project for a Maritime Corridor in Southeast Asia, comprising Malaysia,
Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, and the Philippines. The initiative is part of a
partnership between ASEAN and Japan for connectivity in Southeast Asia, for
which Japan is contributing with ideas of connectivity infrastructure projects
(Toccheto et al., 2014).
The Development at the Northern Sea Route of the Arctic Region
The Northeast Passage (NEP) is a historic term for the transit route north of
Russia linking together the Northern Atlantic and Northern Pacific Oceans. It
is a somewhat abstract term without strictly defined borders or end-points. On
the other hand, NSR which is the term used by Russia today is clearly defined
entity and had been used for important waterway since the 1930s in support of
the industrial development of its Arctic resources (Ragner, 2000). Navigation
in Arctic waters is unique compare to all ship operations (Figure 4).
Sea ice and water depths are two main impediments to navigation. The
climactic volatility, thick sea-ice, and other hazardous conditions make it
inhospitable and largely inaccessible for the majority of the year. The ship is
the most suitable transportation despite the limited shipping season and
severe environmental condition at the Arctic region. As it is a dangerous
region with many obstacles, all vessels making the transit must have varying
levels of ice-certified hulls, proper equipment, and adequate training.
The actual route used depends on ice conditions. Extra costs will incur
for a special ship like ice-strengthened vessels, insurance and maintenance,
and icebreaking and pilotage not to mention port development and related

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
36
infrastructure in the area. Annual Cargo traffic in the NSR is relatively small as
to compare with other routes.
Figure 4: Arctic Region
(Source: Pinterest (n.d.).
Optimistic forecasts predict that the volume of world trade will double
over the next two decades and visionaries are thinking of increasing the use of
the Arctic route between Europe and Asia and capturing new traffic between
Europe and North America. Between late June and mid-November parts of the
route are ice-free, and conditions improve progressively between June and
September. The whole system is open for a period in the summer, but all
sections are not necessarily open simultaneously (Drent, 1993). Historically,
Arctic navigation was confined to supplying local communities during the
summer season. Many hampered human efforts to travel within the region
and take advantage of its resources.
While the entire route is affected by ice for much of the year, in the
summer there is melting due to the combined effects of milder temperatures
and the influx of warmer water (Drent, 1993). The motivation to navigate the
Northern passage was initially economic. As early as sixteenth-century
explorers and traders started several voyages in search of the Northeast

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
37
Passage and by the seventeenth century, traders had established a continuous
sea route from Arkhangelsk to the Yamal Peninsula, where they portaged to
the Gulf of Ob. This route was known as the Mangazeya seaway, after its
eastern terminus, the trade depot of Mangazeya was an early precursor to the
Northern Sea Route. Later expeditions to explore the North East Passage took
place in the 1760s, 1785-95, the 1820s and 1830s. The expedition managed to
map much of the western part of the NEP but was all either wrecked or forced
to return by the difficult ice conditions.
The possibility of navigation of the whole length of the passage was
proved by the mid-nineteenth century. In 1878 Finish-Swedish explore
Nordenskiold made the first complete passage of the North East Passage from
west to east, in the Vega expedition lead by Lieutenant Louis Palander of the
Swedish Royal Navy. Commercial exploitation of the section of the route
started with the Kara expeditions, exporting Siberian agricultural produce via
the Kara Sea where of 122 convoys between 1877 and 1919 only 75 succeeded
transporting as little as 55 tons of cargo. From 1911 the Kolyma steamboats ran
from Vladivostok to the Kolyma once a year.
The relevance of NEP as an international transit waterway further
diminished after the Russian Revolution in 1917. Since then, access to the
Russian Arctic became restricted for non-Soviet vessels. The expedition of Otto
Schmid on steam ice breaker “Alexandder Sibiryakov” in 1932 was the starting
point for opening regular traffic along the Northern Sea Route. The steamship
with a displacement of 3200 tons put to sea from Arkhangelesk on the 28 July
1932 and reached port Dickson on the 3 of August 1932. Successful expedition
of Otto Schmidt proved the possibility of active development in the Arctic.
GLAVSEVMORPUT (Northern Sea Route General Office) was established to
put the idea of Arctic development to practice (Drent, 1993). The Soviet Union
was the first and the only country actively using drift-ice research stations.
The idea came from Vladimir Vize, a researcher of Scientific Research
Institute of the Arctic and Antarctic and in 1937 the team of the first drift-ice
research station arrived on site. Before the Great Patriotic War, the ports of
Dickson, Dudinka, Tiksi, Pevek, and Provideniya were under construction. To
the Soviet Union, the NSR also had a military role. During the war apart from
supply of the Arctic construction sites and research stations, it is necessary to
ensure supply of garrisons and warships and to receive goods delivered from
the USA and Canada. NSR activity was at its peak in 1987 when 6.6 million
tons of cargo was transported on the route. In this year the Soviet President
Gorbachev for the first time proposed to open up the NSR to non-Soviet

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
38
vessels, an initiative which was followed-up by the formal opening of the NSR
to foreign vessels on 1 July 1991 (Ragner, 2000).
The potential for Commercial Shipping at Northern Sea Route
On the other hand, the positive development of the NSR in terms of shipping
traffic had created new implications on trading nations such as China, Japan,
South Korea, and Singapore. In 2013, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea also
joined as a permanent observer at the Arctic Council. NSR has the potential to
drastically reduce sailing distances, costs and times between northern Europe
and East Asia. Initial estimates suggest the current 40 days, the 22,000-
kilometer voyage from northern Europe to East Asia (routed through the Suez
Canal and Straits of Malacca) could be transformed into a 30-day, 15,000-
kilometer trip via the NSR.
The NSR is an integral part of the economy, and it is vital for the
regions of the Extreme North and the Far East. The most outstanding voyages
along the Northern Sea Route in the 1940-1970s, included transportation of
manufactured products and foodstuffs, delivery warships, and navigations of
fishing boats. It ensures the supply of remote areas with fuel, foodstuffs and
essential goods and supply of the continent with natural resources. Shipping
in the Arctic area is not only affected by social and economic developments,
but it is also very much determined by sea-ice conditions. The biggest
challenges are ice from October to June, the Arctic Ocean remains largely ice-
locked, making surface navigation impossible for all vessels, except
icebreakers. Arctic shipping can be divided into many categories such as
commercial vessels including tankers and fishing vessels, vessels for
recreations and tourism, scientific research vessels, icebreakers for re-supply
and vessels engaged in offshore exploration.
In 1978, the first all-year route was initiated between the Yenisey port
of Dudinka and Murmansk, transporting metals and ores from the Norilsk
Industrial complex, with ice breaker escort during the winter season. Since the
1970s the NSR has also been used as an important supply line for the
development of Russia’s northern oil and gas industry. NSR route activity was
at its peak in 1987, but as the Soviet system started to crumble, it soon becomes
difficult for the state to uphold the high level of subsidies that was required to
maintain most activities in the Arctic, and NSR cargo volumes diminished
(Figure 6). After the Soviet Union’s disintegration, volumes gradually fell,
before having come to the stable level of 1.5-2.5 million tons per year since
1996 (Drent, 1993).

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
39
Volumes are expected to keep rising. Since 2000, small tankers have
transported gradually increasing volumes of oil from the new Varander
terminal on the Pechora coast, with most shipment going directly to Western
Europe. In addition, since 2002 a new export route with oil shipments from
several White Sea ports to Murmansk and Western Europe has developed,
with oil shipped to the ports by rail. The export of metals has added to the
volumes of sea transportation on the NSR, and forecasts indicate that future
tanker trade in Northwestern Russia will increase substantially over the next
years, take into consideration safe shipping conditions, better communications
as well as improve navigational charts (Figure 5).
In 2013, traffic in NSR connected ports as far as west as Ammassalik
(Greenland) and as far as east as Vancouver, Canada. In total, vessels
travelling along the NSR called at 47 ports in 14 countries. The port of
Murmansk, Russia represented the key hub for shipping in NSR with 27
vessels, carrying 492,000 tons of cargo. The port of Pevek, Russia located near
the eastern entrance of the
Figure 5: Shipping at Arctic Northern Sea Route 2007-2013
Source: Northern Sea Route Information Office. (n.d.).
NSR counted 18 vessels with a total of 311,000 tons of cargo. Other
important ports were Rotterdam (Netherlands), Mongstad and Hemmerfest
(Norway) in Europe accounting for six ships and 421,000 tons. About 286,000

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
40
tons of cargo, representing 21 percent of traffic departed from or arrived in
Chinese ports. China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO Shipping) continues
to be a consistent player on the NSR route in recent years (Figures 6, 7 and 8).
Figure 6: Chinese ship “COSCO” passing through the Northern Sea Route
Source: Pettersen (2015).
Figure 7: Vessels Passing Through the Northern Sea Route
Source: Pettersen (2015).

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
41
Figure 8: Chinese merchant ship “Hong Xing” to sail the Northern Sea Route
from Asia to Europe
Source: Pettersen (2015).
It had its first NSR voyage in 2013, followed by a roundtrip transit in
2015. In 2015 a total of 5.4 million tons of goods and project cargo were
transported on the NSR, up from 4.0 million tons in 2014 and 3.9 million tons
in 2013. The NSR Administration received a total of 715 applications for
sailings on the NSR in 2015, thereof 126 from foreign flag ships (Gunnarsson ,
2016). The year 2016 saw two transits by COSCO ships, and plans are in place
for more. In 2017, shipping traffic at NSR experienced significant growth
compared to the year 2016.
The future challenges and constraints of NSR route
Newcomers to the NSR need to have a firm understanding of the challenges
and requirements. The main physical constraints to NSR shipping are the
shallow seas and straits along most parts of the route, and above the difficult
ice conditions. There are signs that ice-conditions are becoming slowly lighter,
possibly due to climate change (Ragner, 2000). With the record low Arctic ice
coverage in 2007, navigation via formerly impenetrable NSR became a viable
option and an apparent maritime fast lane (Yu & James, 2017). The NSR
opened to foreign-flagged cargo ships in 2009 with two German vessels.
Transporting heavy equipment from the Far East to Novy Port, located
at the mouth of the Ob River on the Yamal Peninsula in Russia’s Yamalo-

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
42
Nenets Autonomous Region. The transit cargo volume grew from 111,000 tons
in 2010 to 1.356 million tons in 2013, with a total of 71 transits. Activity during
this period allowed the industry to evaluate future possibilities for NSR transit
shipping carried out through some exploratory or demonstration voyages with
large crude oil tankers and LNG carriers.
The distinct feature of the Russian Arctic is the shallowness of its sea
which creates at least three major problems for shipping, namely:
(i). The shallowness of the straits through the New Siberian Islands
seriously limits the draft and size of ships that can use the whole NSR on a
regular basis.
(ii). The shallowness of the coastal areas forces deep-draft ships to
choose routes far from the coast. This creates additional problems for larger
ships since ice conditions often are better close to the coast, where small
islands and other local features may provide shelter from drifting ice.
(iii). The shallowness of the coastal areas and the Arctic ports seriously
limit the size of ships that can call at the Russian Arctic. Another serious
consequence is the inability of larger ships to seek shelter and repair in
emergencies (Figures 9 & 10).
Figure 9: Port infrastructure in the Arctic Region
Source: Bing images feed. (n.d.).

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
43
Figure 10: Port of Murmansk, the great Arctic port
Source: Bing images feed. (n.d.).
In terms of climate change, although there is a concern of extremely
difficult ice-conditions on the NSR, a growing number of reliable research
reports indicate that the polar ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate,
and some research report indicates that the pace is dramatic (Claes Lykee
Ragner). If these trends continue, it is projected the entire Arctic Ocean will
become ice-free during summer before the end of this century. This would
change the conditions for prospects of shipping on the NSR for commercial
shipping in the future fundamentally.
The Russian government recently released Russia’s Integrated
Development Plan for the NSR 2015-2030. The plan stresses the importance of
providing safer and more reliable navigation on the NSR for maritime export
of Russian natural resource materials but also the strategic importance of NSR
for Russian national security. The plan is also to increase international transit
cargo transportation on NSR in partnership with Asian countries and in
particular with China.
Conclusion
Southeast Asian region is in need of continuous investments to improve
maritime connectivity including land transport and supply-chain
infrastructure to support port and shipping developments. At the moment, the
region as well the international trade and shipping are very much dependence

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
44
on the Straits of Malacca which is the chokepoints in the SLOCs system.
Whether the NSR will become an alternative route for international seaborne
trade in the future is still uncertain. Despite the obstacles and challenges in
terms of developing shipping technology and port infrastructure, it is rather
ambitious to develop maritime connectivity between the Southeast Asia region
and the Arctic region through the NSR. Nevertheless, Singapore and the East
Asian countries like Japan, Korea, and China had shown their interest in using
the route for exporting crude oil. China’s interest in Arctic shipping is taken an
important factor in the development of the NSR. Consequently, the NSR is
identified as the most promising Arctic seaway with a considerable potential
to shorten sailing distances from Europe to Asia and larger extend vice versa.
According to the Federal Agency for Sea and Inland Transport, the
cargo traffic along the NSR will reach 44 million metric tons in 2020 and 70
million metric tons in 2030 (The Arctic, 2018). Therefore, the Arctic is no longer
unreceptive to regular shipping voyages, and analyzing the trends over the
next few years will no doubt indicate strong leaders in the field to take
advantage of the economic benefits that lie in the NSR. Taking into
consideration other development like climate change has provided an
opportunity for shipping routes and port developments to improve maritime
connectivity.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to thank and acknowledge and acknowledge the
financial support provided by University of Malaya under the Research
Clusters Equitable Society Research Cluster (ESRC) for the research grant
RP01A-13SBS and RUGrant Faculty Program 2018-2019 for the research grant
GPF007J-2018.
References
Abdul, N. S. F., Abdul, S., & Rasdi, R. (2016). Decision strategies for boosting
maritime economy in Malaysia the opening of Northern Sea Route.
Journal of Maritime Research, XIII(III), 13-20. Retrieved from
https://www.jmr.unican.es
Bing images feed. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.bing.com/images/
Drent, J. (1993). Commercial Shipping on the Northern Sea Route. The Northern
Mariner/Le Marin du nord, III(2), 1-17.

Southeast Asian Region Maritime Connectivity and the Potential Development of the Northern Sea Route for
Commercial Shipping
45
Gunnarsson, B. (2016, 18 February). Future development of the Northern Sea
Route. Retrieved from http://mediakit.maritime-
executive.com/author/marex
Hanizah Idris. (2018, 7 August). Malaysia’s development depends on
international and domestic support for maritime connectivity. Asia
Pacific Bulletin, 436. Washington D.C: East-West Center. Retrieved from
http://www.eastwestcenter.org/print/3676
Hanizah Idris, & Hanafi Hussin. (2018). Improving intra-ASEAN connectivity
and inland waterways network for further integration of the coastal
shipping and tourism sector developments. JATI-Journal of Southeast
Asian Studies, 23(1), 75-101. Retrieved from
http://jati.um.edu.my/index.php/jati/article/view/12188
Hanizah Idris, Tan, W. H., & Mohammad Raduan Mohd. Ariff. (Eds). (2008).
Maritime social and economic developments in Southeast Asia. Monographs
Series. Kuala Lumpur: Institute of Ocean and Earth Science, University
of Malaya.
Khalid, N. (2012). Staying the course: Swimming with the tide of changes and
developments in the shipping industry. MIMA Bulletin, 19(3), 4-12.
Jensen, O. (2007). The IMO guidelines for ships operating in Arctic ice-covered
waters: From voluntary to mandatory tool for navigation safety and
environmental protection? Lysaker: Fridtjof Nansen Institute.
Leinbach, T.H. and Chia Lin Sien. (1989). South-East Asian Transport: Issues in
Development. Singapore: Oxford University Press.
Mapping supply chains in the global economy. (2014, 18 October). Supply
Chain 24/7’s website. Retrieved from http://www.supply
chain247.com/article/mapping_supply_chains_in_the_global_economy
Master plan on ASEAN connectivity. (2011). Jakarta: The ASEAN Secretariat.
Nordin Hussin. (2008). Historical development of coastal ports and towns in
the Straits of Malacca. In H. M. Ibrahim & Hairil Anuar Husin (Eds.),
Profile of the Straits of Malacca: Malaysia’s perspective (pp. 7-22). Kuala
Lumpur: MIMA.
Northern Sea Route Information Office. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://arctic-
lio.com/
Osborne, M. (2013). Southeast Asia: An Introductory History. Crows Nest: Allen
& Unwin.
Pettersen, T. (2015). Northern Sea Route traffic plummeted. Retrieved from
http://barentobserver.com/en/artic
Pinterest (n.d.). Explore North Pole, Grade 2, and more! Pinterest’s website.
Retrieved from https://www.pinterest.com/pin/42784265770/

Hanizah Idris & Muhammad Faiz Ramli
46
Ragner, C. L. (2000). Northern Sea Route flows and infrastructure-present –
Present state and future potential. Lysaker: Fridtjof Nansens Institute.
The Arctic. (2018). Retrieved from
https://arctic.ru/infrastructure/20180116/7000166.html
The South China Sea is an important world energy trade route (2013, 4 April).
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s website. Retrieved
from https://www.eia.gov/todayienergy/detai/
Toccheto, J. S., Tancredi, L., Araujo, R. Z., & Noronha, R. S. (2014). Maritime
connectivity in the Asia Pacific Region. UFRGSMUN /UFRGS Model
United Nations, 2, 13-80.
Trace, K., Frielink, B., & Hew, D. (2009). Maritime connectivity in Archipelagic
Southeast Asia: An Overview. ADB Working Papers. Manila: ADB.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2016).
Review of Maritime Transport 2016. New York: UNCTAD.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2017).
Review of Maritime Transport 2017. New York: UNCTAD.
Urban Gallery. (n.d.). Main maritime shipping routes. Urban Gallery’s website.
Retrieved from http://urban-gallery.net/tssr/wp-
content/uploads/2013/05/Main-Maritime-Shipping-Routes-800x565.jpg
Wijeratne, D., & Clayton, E. (2018). The future of ASEAN-Time to act-. Kuala
Lumpur: PWC Growth Markets Centre.
Yu, H.-C., & James, B. (2017). Future of traffic on the Northern Sea Route.
Frontier Energy. Retrieved from http://www.frontierenergy.info
Date of Received: 17 August 2018 Date of Acceptance: 17 December 2018