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Goodbye anthropogenic global warming? IPCC fatal error by neglecting ocean thermal inertia?

  • Geoclastica Ltd


GEOCLASTICA LTD TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-6. SUPERSEDED BY TECHNICAL NOTE 2019-17 (please scroll up). Original introduction …This half-page contribution (scroll down or click 'Download') strongly suggests that the 'man-made-global-warming' idea (belief) is a fallacy whose time is nearly over. My conclusions and predictions are based on three years (continuing) of self-funded (i.e. impartial) literature research on ALL the scientific disciplines relevant to climate- and sea-level change (i.e. geology, geophysics, archaeology, astrophysics, meteorology, oceanography, physics, chemistry, etc, etc.), backed by 30 years as an independent (thus unbiased) international geology consultant, preceded by a doctorate in geology (Oxford 1982-86). This contribution shows that since at least 1995 Earth's average temperature apparently correlates with the sun's magnetic output, but lags behind it by about 25 years [note added 4th Oct 2019: new correlations indicate 85 years] due to our enormous ocean's thermal inertia (ignored in IPCC's models). For further evidence, even more convincing, SEE MY TECHNICAL NOTE 2018-4 (June 2018), especially: SLIDE 2 showing that the same correlation between solar output and average world temperature extends even further back, to the 1880 start of reliable temperature measurements (by thermometer); and SLIDE 1 showing the same correlation applies going back at least 2,000 years, based on temperature PROXIES, mainly tree rings (the plotted sample interval of 30 years cannot resolve 25-year time lag). See also Technical Note 2019-2, released a few days ago, showing the correlation between (1) solar-magnetic output, (2) Earth's temperature (lag 25 years), and also (3) SEA LEVEL (lag 45 years) for 1900 to 2018. For my prediction of an imminent unstoppable sea-level rise of about 3m, starting any day now and ending by 2100, driven by (but again lagging behind) the recently ended solar Grand Maximum (1937-2003) and nothing to do with CO2, see several other very brief 2018-19 contributions here on my ResearchGate site, most recently …
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IPCC’s 2013 report (co-author physicist Dr M. Lockwood FRS, citing his own publications), says the sun "cannot
explain global mean surface warming over the past 25 years, because solar irradiance has declined over this
period” (red bar versus blue bar below). So instead IPCC blames man’s additions of CO2, a gas that even now
totals just 1/2500th [400ppm] of Earth’s atmosphere [near plant-starvation level], 1/10th of previous values.
But Lockwood assumes Earth’s average surface temperature reacts almost instantly to solar-output changes, with
a time-lag of <3 years (y). On the contrary, massive ocean thermal inertia (google it), discounted by IPCC, possibly
causes a (presently) 25y lag, shown below by simply cross-correlating the solar (cosmic-ray proxy) & temperature
graphs (compare circles & yellow bars). Similarly various pre-2013 authors estimated 15-20y lag, based on theory.
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2018-6 (one slide only), updated 29th January 2019
Text & figures below superseded by Technical Note 2019-17
(new correlations covering a longer time reveal lag is 85yr not 25yr)
As predicted by the lag, Earth is now cooling (green box). Cooling has already lasted 2.7y (Feb 2016 peak to Oct
2018), matching any other cooling since 1995 (green bars) in duration and, almost, in magnitude (fully 0.5°C).
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Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2018-6 (one slide only)
  • Roger Dr
  • Higgs
Dr Roger Higgs, Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2018-6 (one slide only), December 2018