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Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty

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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report is a comprehensive assessment of our understanding of global warming of 1.5°C, future climate change, potential impacts and associated risks, emission pathways, and system transitions consistent with 1.5°C global warming, and strengthening the global response to climate change in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
... Vulnerability is the "predisposition to be adversely affected" [55] (p. 560). ...
... Someone or something is vulnerable when they are not able to cope with or recover from shocks and stresses or are not able to adapt to these changes. Climate risk-the risk of negative impacts from climate change-is determined by the nature of the hazards and the exposure and vulnerability to these hazards [55]. Vulnerability can be reduced by increasing resilience and adaptive capacities. ...
... Vulnerability can be reduced by increasing resilience and adaptive capacities. Resilience is the ability to deal with and adapt to shocks and stresses, such as extreme weather events, and the adaptive capacity is the ability to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to the consequences of climate change (for full definitions see [55]). ...
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The impact of climate change and related hazards such as floods, heatwaves, and sea level rise on human lives, cities, and their hinterlands depends not only on the nature of the hazard, but also on urban development, adaptation, and other socioeconomic processes that determine vulnerability and exposure. Spatial planning can reduce climate risk not just by influencing the exposure, but also by addressing social vulnerability. This requires that relevant information is available to planners and that plans are implemented and coordinated between sectors. This article is based on a research project in Thailand, particularly on the results of multi-sectoral workshops in the case study region of the Andaman Coast in southern Thailand, and draws upon climate risk, spatial planning, and systems thinking discourses. The article formulates recommendations for planning in the context of Thailand that are relevant for other rapidly growing and urbanizing regions. Among other conclusions, it suggests that systems thinking approaches and cross-sectoral strategies are a way to grasp the interdependencies between and within climate risk and spatial development challenges.
... Petroleum-based fuel is commonly used to meet global energy demands for many sectors, including transportation and power plants (Chih et al., 2021). Still, it is also one of the top contributors to global warming (IPCC, 2018). Natural gas and crude oil are two natural resources obtained through subsurface exploration of the earth's crust. ...
... In the last 400,000 years, its concentration in the earth's atmosphere has fluctuated from 180 to 310 ppm. In the past two centuries, the concentration has increased from approximately 280 ppm at the beginning of the industrial revolution (Rehan & Nehdi, 2005) to over 400 ppm at the current year (IPCC, 2018;Thirkell et al., 2020). Given that the trend of natural gas usage is increasing, accounting for around a quarter of worldwide carbon emissions, decarbonizing in the petroleum industry will be critical for global carbon mitigation (Delikonstantis et al., 2020). ...
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Unlike carbon footprint in fossil fuel usage, few studies have investigated carbon footprint in the upstream petroleum industry. Currently, there is no published offshore carbon footprint study, and the carbon footprint of unmanned offshore platforms in Indonesia remains unclear. This study aims to identify the potential carbon footprint of offshore platforms in the Madura Field during offshore production based on the data activity using the life cycle approach. The data inventory had been monitored for a one-year natural gas production cycle from four unmanned platforms and one processing platform in Madura Field. The results show that the unmanned offshore platforms generated an average of 98.77 kg CO2eq/GJ with a high deviation (± 3.34). The processing platform’s average carbon footprint is 1232 kg CO2eq/GJ, which indicates the wide carbon footprint range between production platforms. Carbon footprint in the offshore platform is essential for completing the cradle to grave footprint identification since it is one of the important environmental sustainable indicators used as environmental evaluation tools. Understanding the footprint level in the upstream petroleum industry is significant for studying climate change’s impact on offshore activity, potential carbon generation released to the environment, and the key step of establishing a carbon reduction plan for the petroleum industry. Therefore, climate sustainability evaluation in the upstream petroleum industry can be assessed continuously.
... In Chile, hydric resources have been managed by centralized governments using a top-down approach that focused on increasing the supply of water but not on managing the demands for it. The lack of understanding of the interactions between the human, hydric, and socioecological systems; the lack of research funding; and the lack of interaction between science, politics, and management have given rise to several problems: erroneous concepts about the socio-hydrological dynamics, indiscriminate water use, undue appropriation of the resource, and institutions that do not adequately respond to these challenges [11,12]. ...
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In Chile, as in many other areas of the world, water supplies have been poorly managed and water availability is decreasing. In order to manage water resources more sustainably and equitably, it is necessary to understand and predict their supply and use considering the characteristics of a particular zone. This study aimed to develop a conceptual model for water management in the Libertador Bernardo O’Higgins Region in Chile. The model considers the water needs of industries with production activities, human consumption, and the ecological flow of each sub-basin in the area. The results show that the proposed model contributes to the understanding of the critical variables, their agents, and the interaction between the hydric demands, which enables the prioritization of human consumption and the ecological flow. Furthermore, the cross-analysis between the offer and demand indicates that current and predicted consumption levels will only be sustainable up to the year 2031. The findings may be of use to decision-makers seeking to improve water management plans in this area and elsewhere, and to others interested in modeling water management in different areas.
... Even as adaptation funding has become more available in recent years, and commitments have been made globally and at the country-level for improving adaptation planning, there is not yet a clear answer as to "how national governments translate these global templates for subnational policy action, a critical issue for adaptation studies because adaptation is supposed to be a primarily local effort" [2]. Indeed, at a time when concern about the adequacy of international cooperation in climate change mitigation is rising (see [3] for an illustration), authorities are turning to subnational actors to address climate change [4]. ...
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National governments in the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations are using domestically sourced and international funding and expertise. However, local governments are where citizens in many developing countries turn to solve problems. Using results from a nationally representative sample in Bangladesh, one of the most climate-vulnerable nations in the world, we examine citizens’ perspectives about the responsibility of different levels of government to address climate change problems. Inasmuch as Bangladeshi survey respondents do draw distinctions, they trust local governments more than the national one. However, local governments tend to be relatively weak vis-à-vis the national government: political and financial resources are concentrated there, and the national government has access to the resources of international financial institutions. Furthermore, respondents tend to view local officials as embedded community networks more than as formal government agents. We conclude that better public communications across levels of government with vulnerable communities are needed if these communities are to protect themselves from extreme weather events, access services, and reap the benefits of “polycentric” climate adaptation governance across a full range of levels.
... The impacts of climate change are far-reaching and threaten to expose the vulnerabilities of individual countries to environmental damage, such as flooding and loss of habitats as well as leading to socioeconomic impacts, such as migration (Klingelhöfer et al 2020). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed that a transition is needed also in household consumption, to increase our chances of limiting warming to 1.5 • C above preindustrial levels, one of the goals set out in the Paris Agreement (Masson-Delmotte et al 2018). Worldwide, households contribute directly and indirectly 72% to greenhouse gas emissions (Dubois et al 2019). ...
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A good understanding of household carbon emissions is an important part of forming climate mitigation strategies to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Numerous studies have been carried out on emissions from household consumption and the inequality between urban and rural areas in high-income developed countries, but there is a lack of in-depth analysis of such differences in developing countries. Our research details household carbon footprints (CFs) of four urban and four rural income categories for 90 developing countries, by linking global expenditure data to the environmentally extended multi-regional input–output approach. We show that there are large inequalities between urban and rural areas in developing countries. The average per capita CF in urban areas tends to be larger than that of rural inhabitants ranging from twice as large to nine times larger. We find that electricity consumption and transport are the largest contributors to the total CF in all expenditure groups. High-income rural households have an average per capita CF of 12.38 t CO2 which is 25% higher than the equivalent urban high-income group, which deviates from the literature looking at a subset of cases. Our study contributes to the existing research on CFs by providing knowledge on the consumption patterns and related carbon emissions of urban and rural populations in these understudied parts of the world.
... In a global warming scenario, hot days are getting hotter and are more frequent, while we are experiencing fewer cold days (Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020). As per the IPCC summary report (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2018), climate change is rapidly progressing and is intensifying. It also says that for a warming of 1.5 °C, there will be an increase in the frequency of heatwaves associated with longer warm and shorter cold seasons. ...
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Heatwaves are a major cause of environmental and health hazards. In a global warming scenario, the effect of heat stress associated with the increased frequency of heatwaves makes a large number of people vulnerable over the Indian subcontinent. For the development of a proper heatwave action plan in this region, heatwaves are required to be monitored, tracked, and predicted in real-time. In this study, we propose an operationally deployable empirical model using a set of indices to monitor and predict the heatwaves in the short range over the Indian region in real-time using gridded observation data and reanalysis data. The empirical operational model framework has two major components, (a) index-based monitoring over a spatial domain, and (b) temporal prediction over different locations (i.e. grid points). In the current version of the model framework, three heatwave indices are calculated for component (a), e.g., excess heat index, heat stress index, and excess heat factor index which were found suitable for the Indian region, and elsewhere. The advantage of these percentile-based and mean monthly exceedance-based indices is that they can be used to identify the heatwave affected blocks/districts/cities masking the local fluctuations. In addition, we also incorporate the effect of synoptic information like wind and humidity on heatwave intensity and duration in this component. This model component closely follows the existing operational criteria and the results from several cases are verified. For the second component (b), we have used a simple machine learning based method for the prediction of excess heat factor index to understand the recurrence properties of these indices. This simplistic method provides some reference skills for heatwave based on evolution memories. The results indicate that the overall heatwave indices can be predicted using this simplistic model up to a lead-time of 2–3 days for most of the regions of India.
... Solar energy is one of the main alternatives to sustainably meet the world's growing energy demand and thus contribute to the development of the actions urgently called for by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to reduce the severe environmental impact [1]. Consequently, there is currently strong interest in both solar thermal and photovoltaic systems for agricultural [2], industrial and, above all, residential applications [3,4], as cities in developed countries are thought to be the main consumers of energy worldwide [5]. ...
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Reliable data on the availability of solar energy is needed, as solar energy is an essential resource for sustainable development worldwide. However, ground-based radiometric stations are scarce, at least in large areas far from population and in developing countries, so there are difficulties in validating methods for estimating solar radiation. Indirect models mitigate the problem by providing radiation data from other meteorological variables, which can be measured with low-cost equipment and calibrated with data from secondary station networks. However, models’ accuracy decreases if estimations are required far away from the calibration stations. It is hoped that modified models that include the influence of geographical and topographical variables can attenuate this drawback in data-scarce regions. This paper evaluates the accuracy and generality of 14 existing models of monthly global solar radiation based on temperature, which is a routinely measured variable. At first, models are locally calibrated at 105 stations in three large areas in Spain. Then, from the local coefficients of eight stations selected in each area, general equations are derived for the coefficients of each model as function of the ratio between elevation and distance to the sea. The predictions of these modified models, i.e., using coefficients derived from general equations, are compared both for the eight base stations and the remaining ones used for validation. In the comparisons, not only errors averaged in groups of stations are considered, but also local results. Several models perform well in some areas, but a simple homogeneous model is the only one whose indicators are good in all areas and hardly vary when using general coefficients derived from the data measured at all available stations.
... Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have a considerable impact on climate change, which is an ongoing threat for global food security (IPCC, 2018). The ruminant livestock is responsible for 56% of agricultural GHG emissions and for 93% of all livestock emissions globally (Watts et al., 2021). ...
Article
Methane (CH4) produced from enteric fermentation in ruminants has a noticeable impact on climate change. Prediction models are an alternative to current laborious and costly in vivo CH4 measurement techniques. The objectives of this study were to: (1) collate a database of individual sheep records from CH4 emission studies conducted in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region; (2) identify key variables for predicting CH4 production (g/d) and CH4 yield [g/kg of dry matter intake (DMI)]; (3) develop and cross-validate these newly-developed models; and (4) compare models’ predictive ability with equations currently used to support national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories in the LAC region. After removing outliers, the final database retained 219 individual sheep records from 11 studies, 48.2% of the original database. Models were developed using a sequential approach, by incrementally adding different variables with increasing complexity. Production and yield of CH4 were predicted by fitting mixed-effects models with a random effect of study. The predictive accuracy of fitted CH4 prediction models was evaluated using a leave-one-out cross-validation. Overall, increasing model complexity improved the predictive performance of CH4 production and yield equations. Feed intake was the most important predictor of sheep CH4 production. Our best-developed CH4 production models outperformed Tier 2 equations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the growing lambs and mature sheep subsets, whereas they performed slightly worse in the complete subset. Methane yield can be predicted using dietary forage content only, or with an increased complexity model combining body weight, feeding level, and dietary forage content. The use of the newly-developed models rather than IPCC Tier 2 equations can substantially improve the accuracy of GHG inventories from LAC countries.
... These temperature projections are from 2040 to 2059 under six global circulation models (GCMs) that represent a range of responses to climate change (Notaro, Bennington, & Lofgren, 2015;Notaro, Bennington, & Vavrus, 2015). The six GCMs were Australian Community Climate and Earth-System simulator (ACCESS), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL), Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5), and Meteorological Research Institute ofJapan Meteorological Agency (MRI) (described in more detail in Winslow et al., 2017;IPCC, 2018), and all were driven by the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), which assumes continued growth in carbon emissions through the end of the century and thus is a high-end but realistic warming scenario (Schwalm et al., 2020). ...
Article
Managing ecological systems for resilience can increase their capacity to maintain key functions even under global change. Oxygenated coldwater (oxythermal) habitat in lakes is an important ecological resource that is threatened by both climate change and eutrophication. Here, we quantify the resilience of oxythermal habitat in over 10,000 glacial lakes in the upper Midwestern United States to climate change and watershed disturbance and classify lakes for conservation prioritization based on their current conditions and resilience. Oxythermal habitat was predicted by lake morphometry, July air temperatures, and watershed land use. Temperatures are projected to increase by mid‐century, and the magnitude of warming, its effect on oxythermal habitat, and the uncertainty surrounding that effect varied among lakes. Under mid‐century climate conditions, the number of lakes containing suitable coldwater habitat was predicted to decline by 67%, while the number of lakes with unsuitable habitat was predicted to increase by over 200%. Lakes varied in the amount of temperature increase that they could sustain without a resultant change in habitat tier (i.e., their climate resilience). Median climate resilience was 4.3°C, with some lakes capable of remaining in their habitat tier even with temperature increases up to 14°C. Changing watershed land use was predicted to influence oxythermal habitat in 24% of lakes (n = 2391). We used the magnitude of increase in watershed development that a lake could sustain while remaining in its current habitat class as a measure of its resilience to watershed disturbance. Conversely, decreased watershed development may improve oxythermal habitat conditions and push a lake into an improved condition, and this value represented a lake's restoration potential. We classified lakes into seven management classes based on their current oxythermal habitat conditions and the resilience of oxythermal habitat to climate and watershed disturbance. To facilitate management on individual lakes, we also assessed the vulnerability and resilience of individual lakes and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. By quantifying the resilience of lakes and how it is influenced by local action across a multistate region, we can prioritize conservation action across multiple scales to maintain the critical habitat and ecosystem function of glacial lakes.
... The challenges of climate change and response exemplify the insufficiencies of common modes of knowledge production to generate and mobilize around action-oriented science for sustainability that builds transformative capacity (McNie, 2007;Keeler et al., 2019a;Caniglia et al., 2020). In 2018, the International Panel on Climate Change asserted that worldwide carbon emissions must be curbed by 2030 in order to keep global warming within 1.5 • C, thus averting some of the worst impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2018). Insufficient action to curb global greenhouse-gas emissions, however, now makes it likely that warming will exceed 1.5 • C (IPCC, 2022), and significantly accelerated mitigation after 2030 will be required to keep warming below 2 • C. Advancements in the science of climate change and the urgent please for action from scientists do not alleviate such constraints (see, for example, the American Association for the Advancement of Science initiatives "What we Know" https://whatweknow.aaas.org/ ...
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The scale and urgency of sustainability problems the world over has led to calls for sustainability transformations in cities, regions, and countries. Such calls for transformation are underlain by a persistent knowledge-to-action gap between scientific knowledge production, policy, and practice. To rise to the challenges of sustainability and resilience, municipal administrators need to set evidence-based and ambitious sustainability targets and develop strategies to achieve them. Simultaneously, transdisciplinary sustainability science researchers need to generate scientific knowledge to further enable cities along pathways of transformation. This paper details a collaborative backcasting game, AudaCITY, developed to build transformative capacity in city administrations while also generating deep contextual knowledge to inform a transformative sustainability science research agenda. We present AudaCITY's key features, potential applications and adaptations, and exemplary outputs and outcomes for cities and researchers. We conclude with recommendations for adopting and adapting AudaCITY for use in action-oriented and transformational sustainability science and capacity building.
... Increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations in the atmosphere have contributed to the dramatic increase in global surface temperature (by 0.8-1.5 • C) since the late nineteenth century [1]. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one of the major GHGs in the atmosphere. ...
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Despite the positive impact of no-tillage (NT) on soil organic carbon (SOC), its potential to reduce soil CO2 emission still needs enhancing for climate change mitigation. Combining NT with controlled-grazing of crop residues is known to increase nutrient cycling; however, the impacts on soil CO2 effluxes require further exploration. This study compared soil CO2 effluxes and SOC stocks from conventional tillage with free grazing (CTFG), NT with free grazing (NTFG), NT without grazing (NTNG), NT without crop residues (NTNR) and NT with controlled-grazing (NTCG), in South Africa. Soil CO2 effluxes were measured 1512 times over two years using LI-COR 6400XT, once to thrice a month. Baseline SOCs data were compared against values obtained at the end of the trial. Overall, NTCG decreased soil CO2 fluxes by 55 and 29% compared to CTFG and NTNR, respectively. NTCG increased SOCs by 3.5-fold compared to NTFG, the other treatments resulted in SOC depletion. The increase in SOCs under NTCG was attributed to high C input and also low soil temperature, which reduce the SOC mineralization rate. Combining NT with postharvest controlledgrazing showed high potential to increase SOCs, which would help to mitigate climate change. However, it was associated with topsoil compaction. Therefore, long-term assessment under different environmental, crop, and soil conditions is still required.
... Çalışma alanının da bulunduğu Doğu Akdeniz Havzası'nda 20. yy'de başlayan sıcaklık artışları 21. yy'den itibaren hız kazanmış ve Türkiye'de kış yağışlarındaki ani düşüşe bağlı olarak en şiddetli kuraklıklar son 30 yılda görülmüştür (IPCC, 2018;Türkeş ve Erlat, 2003). Günümüzde devam etmekte olan iklim değişikliği ve insan etkisi, gelecekte Akdeniz Havzası'nın bu konifer ağaçlarının yayılışlarını da etkileyecektir. ...
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Bu çalışmanın amacı, Anadolu'da Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica ve Juniperus drupacea'nın Son Buzul Maksimumu, günümüz ve gelecekte iklim değişikliklerine olan/olacak tepkilerini tahmin etmektir. Bu amaç kapsamında ele alınan konifer türlerin, küresel iklim değişim senaryolarına bağlı model sonuçlarına göre Anadolu'da zamansal ve mekânsal dağılışları ortaya koyulmuştur. İncelenen türlerin zamansal ve mekânsal dağılışlarında tahminlerde bulunmak üzere fosil polen verileri, günümüz dağılış verileri ve WorldClim'den temin edilen 19 biyoiklimsel değişken kullanılmıştır. Bu değişkenlere PCA yöntemi uygulanmış ve tür dağılış modelleri için 8 değişken belirlenmiştir. Modeller CCSM4 modeli ve gelecek projeksiyonları için RCP 8.5 senaryosu ile üretilmiştir. Modellerin üretilmesi için MaxEnt 3.4.1 ve ArcGIS 10.5 yazılımı kullanılmıştır. Projeksiyonların doğruluklarını ölçen AUC test değerleri ise 0,90'nın üzerindedir. 8 biyoiklimsel değişken içinde modellere en fazla katkı sağlayan değişkenler; Cedrus libani için BIO14 %32,3, BIO8 %23,7, BIO15 %19,2; Abies cilicica için BIO8 %30,5, BIO14 %24,1, BIO15 %19,5; Juniperus drupacea için BIO15 %38,1, BIO12 %30,9, BIO4 %13,1'dir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica ve Juniperus drupacea Son Buzul Maksimumu'nda Anadolu'nun güneyinde uygun yaşam alanı bulmuştur. Holosen'den itibaren dağılış sahalarını daraltarak günümüz sınırlarına ulaşmışlardır. Gelecekte ise Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica ve Juniperus drupacea'nın ekolojik isteklerinden bir kısmının kaybolacağı ve alanlarını daraltacağı öngörülebilir. ABSTRACT This study aims to estimate the responses of Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), present and future climate changes in Anatolia. For this purpose, the temporal and spatial distributions of these conifer species were modeled, based on global climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the temporal and spatial distributions of the studied species are predicted and back-projected using fossil pollen data, occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic variables collected from the WorldClim database. The principal component analysis (PCA) method was applied to these variables, resulting in the identification of 8 variables for the species distribution model. Past and future climate information is based on CCSM4 and RCP 8.5 scenario was assumed for future projections. Furthermore, both MaxEnt 3.4.1 and ArcGIS 10.5 were utilized to develop the models. At every instance, the area under curve (AUC) test values that determine the accuracy of the projections is >0,90. Among the 8 bioclimatic variables, those that contributed the most to the models were as follows: Cedrus libani, BIO14 (%32,3), BIO8 (%23,7), BIO15 (%19,2); Abies cilicica BIO8 (%30,5), BIO14 (%24,1), BIO15 (%19,5); Juniperus drupacea, BIO15 (%38,1), BIO12 (%30,9), and BIO4 (%13,1). Cedrus libani, Abies cilicica, and Juniperus drupacea found suitable habitats in the south of Anatolia during the LGM, according to the results. From the Holocene onward, their distribution areas narrowed and reached the present-day borders. Future predictions indicate that some of the ecological conditions of the species will be lost, and their areas will narrow.
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Extreme precipitation has not only detrimental effects on ecosystems and social and economic sectors, but it is a natural hazard that can trigger floods or soil erosion. This study tries to analyze the extreme rainfalls on different geomorphological units and geographical regions of Chile. For this, data from 87 meteorological stations latitudinally and altitudinally distributed and covering a long period (1980–2018) were used. Results showed that precipitation concentration displays an exponential curve where 30% of the rainiest days were concentrated in only 10% of days with precipitation, proving high irregularity. The decisive weight on annual precipitation falls on a few rainy days with very high rainfall amounts. For return periods > 100 years, extreme events of daily precipitation could reach 109 mm and 305 mm in Northern and Southern Andes Mountains, respectively, while in Northern and Southern Central Depression, their values could be 70 mm and 170 mm, respectively.
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Urban areas are hot spots of flood risk due to how urban development concentrates people and assets into hazard prone areas, reinforcing negative externalities on the welfare of urban residents. Mitigating flood risk in urban environments, however, is challenging. This is not only because the process generating flood risk is complex, but the objectives of city planners, residents and/or developers are also multi-faceted. Therefore, there are various trade-offs to be considered. One such problem across many areas of Europe and beyond is how to regenerate declined urban areas, to improve the welfare, prosperity, and image of the city. However, in turn, many areas within these cities will see this activity being traded-off against increased flood risk. Cost-benefit analysis represents a useful approach for assessing this trade-off, as a decision-support tool. In this paper we present an exploratory cost-benefit analysis of a potential urban regeneration project within the city of Ústí nad Labem (Czechia) that seeks to highlight the potential magnitude of such trade-offs that need to be more often actively considered as a core, rather than peripheral, element of urban regeneration. We present an exploratory framework that can be expanded upon and integrated into wider regeneration visions.
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Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO2eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO2eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO2eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO2eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10018-5.
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Atmospheric aerosols or atmospheric particulate matter affects climate variables like temperature and rainfall, agricultural productivity, soil, and human health. We evaluated aerosol lifecycle over India via simulations (2005–2014) from three general circulation models under the COALESCE project (carbonaceous aerosol emissions, source apportionment, and climate impacts; Venkataraman et al., 2020, 10.1175/bams‐d‐19‐0030.1). The ECHAM6.3‐HAM2.3, CAM5.3, and NICAM‐SPRINTARS simulations use identical regional emissions (from the Speciated Multi‐pollutant generator, SMoG‐India‐v1). Satisfactory model simulations of meteorological variable magnitudes and seasonal cycle have been achieved partly from the adoption of nudging. Estimations of anthropogenic aerosol, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and particulate matter surface concentrations are significantly improved from (a) dust tuning (b) use of satellite‐derived organic aerosol to carbon ratio, and (c) nudged meteorology to capture variables influencing the production of secondary sulfate. Larger wintertime under prediction (−30% to −60%) results from over prediction of seasonal planetary boundary layer height and the absence of secondary ammonium nitrate and organic aerosols. Vertical dispersion to higher altitudes than in observations calls for improved modeling of vertical mass flux representation. Carbonaceous aerosol residence time and AOD fraction larger than global mean values in India, with a seasonal predominance in the autumn and winter seasons can be explained by enhanced regional emissions from residential biofuel cooking, agricultural stubble burning, and traditional informal industries like brick production.
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Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine and compare the total and per passenger HC, CO, NO x and CO 2 emissions from aircraft landing and takeoff (LTO) cycle before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, it is aimed to determine the global warming potential (GWP), environmental impacts (EIs) and enviroeconomic cost (eco-cost) of these emissions in total and per passenger. Design/methodology/approach Analyses were carried out with the help of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s Engine Emission Databank, using real flight data recorded by the airport authority. Findings During the COVID-19 pandemic, total pollutant emissions (HC, CO, NO x and CO 2 ) decreased between 23.7% and 30.8% compared with the pre-pandemic period. In addition, per passenger pollutant emissions increased during the pandemic. Compared with the pre-pandemic period, GWP, EI and eco-cost values decreased by 24.1%, 23.89% and 23.93%, respectively, in the pandemic. However, the per passenger GWP, EI and eco-cost values increased by about 10% compared with the pre-pandemic period. Practical implications This study reveals the effects of COVID-19 in terms of EIs and environmental costs caused by aircraft in the LTO cycle. Originality/value The originality of this study is to calculate the pollutant emissions caused by aircraft in the LTO cycle with real flight data and to reveal the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty of this study is the determination and comparison of total and per passenger pollutant emissions, GWP, EI and eco-cost before and during the pandemic.
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Com base na perspectiva da teoria democrática e dos parâmetros globais e interamericanos de direitos humanos, o fenômeno da participação político-institucional da minoria indígena no Brasil pode ser adequadamente vislumbrado a partir da análise do caso Xukuru. Em referido processo, o candidato indígena originário da comunidade homônima foi eleito ainda no primeiro turno das eleições municipais de 2020, mas teve a sua posse vetada pelo Poder Judiciário, por intermédio da interpretação extensiva de uma norma proibitiva nacional. Interessante identificar, portanto, em que medida as exclusões político-participativas dos povos indígenas brasileiros se configuram parte de uma linha histórica permeada por graves violações de direitos humanos, a prolongar-se sem solução de continuidade perante as correspondentes instituições nacionais.
Conference Paper
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Geothermal power generation with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) has been object of numerous research studies over the past years. In comparison to conventional hydrothermal power plants, CO2-based geothermal systems exhibit several thermophysical, subsurface and power plant equipment, advantages. Essentially, a more effective geothermal heat extraction and less need for auxiliary pumping power, due to a much stronger thermosiphon effect, compared to water-based geothermal energy extraction can be highlighted. In this paper a thermodynamic evaluation of ‘Next Level Geothermal Power Generation’ (NGP) systems is provided. The impact of scaled geothermal cycles and of deviating geologic and ambient conditions, such as reservoir permeability, depth, temperature gradient and the cooling conditions, on both power output and costs is assessed. Furthermore, an improvement of the thermosiphon effect by an optimized cooling is demonstrated. Based on the thermodynamic simulations, capital costs and levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) are calculated and compared with other technologies. The results show that scaled NGP systems with optimized cooling can generate electricity at competitive LCOE.
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Coastal cities in parts of Indonesia are subject to many compounding pressures, including increasing population and industrial agglomeration, and are experiencing greater levels of relative sea level rise (SLR) given the impacts of climate change and large-scale subsidence. The sustainability and resilience of many coastal cities is being tested as they struggle to integrate many socio-technical, political and ecological dependencies within the city with the surrounding coastal environment. Governments at all levels have implemented a diversity of strategies to arrest relative sea level rise, but given the ‘wicked’ nature of this problem, both policy solutions, proposed and implemented, have rarely achieved the outcomes needed. To a large extent, this is attributed to the ineffective governance framework which has led to policy failure, with multiple actors being motivated by different legislative, political, financial and social interests who prioritize specific beneficiaries and solutions. This article examines the governance challenges associated with sea level rise through case studies in Semarang and Demak, Indonesia. It highlights significant barriers that impede effective coastal adaptation including (1) the policy and motivations of differing levels of government. This includes a national government that emphasizes mega-infrastructure projects, a regional government that lacks the capacity and resources to address groundwater extraction and a local government that seeks low-cost hybrid engineering solutions given their financial and budgetary constraints; and (2) ipso facto a lack of coordination across scale, jurisdiction and sectors. This article also highlights several opportunities for community and civil society participation in nature-based solution (NBS) practices and implementation. This article finds that effective adaptation strategies in coastal areas require an integrated governance framework to improve policy implementation and coordination. Highlights Addressing SLR needs coordination of governance of all levels among sectors and between jurisdictions affected. Appropriate measures need to combine top-down and bottom-up approaches. Local governments lack the capacity to address SLR and land subsidence problems. Overlapping and conflicting laws hinder effective implementation in addressing SLR.
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Millets are coarse cereals belonging to the family Poaceae, which is cultivated since the ancient period of civilization. Among different millets, small or minor millets are treated as neglected crops due to their low-yield potential compared to major millets (sorghum and pearl millet) and fine cereals (rice, wheat and maize). In spite of their versatile qualities, small millets remained underutilized due to institutional promotion in favour of fine cereals. Recently, these coarse cereals are re-evaluated as ‘nutri-cereals’ considering their composition and nutritional value. In the present consequences of adverse impacts of climate change, the small millets also attracted the attention of growers and policy-makers as they are less demanding to external inputs, drought-tolerant and register a comparatively lower carbon footprint than other cereals. These beneficial impacts ensured the comeback of small millets after the institutional neglect for a few decades in the developing countries. Considering the food and nutritional security of the common people, small millets can be considered as suitable staples. The emerging health consciousness and food demand for the future pushed small millets to the forefront because of their ecological soundness and mitigating ability to climate change. However, the successful harvest of small millets warrants an integration of proven and climate-smart technologies for the fulfilment of the future needs of the ever-growing population. The chapter focused on all these aspects. Moreover, the research scope mentioned in the chapter implies future directions for enhancing small millet-based agriculture viable in diversifying food baskets and achieving food and nutritional security in a hunger-free society.
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Climate change-induced salinity decrease is currently occurring in many estuarine coastal zones, due to increased outflow of freshwater. This freshening can be a problem for brackish-water animals, already living on the edge of their salinity tolerance. We measured oxygen consumption of common copepod Eurytemora affinis along a natural salinity gradient in the western Gulf of Finland. The salinity varied between 3 in the inner bay and 7 in the offshore area along the gradient, pH varied between 7.05 and 7.86. Our results show that respiration increased with decreasing salinity, as expected for a genus more commonly found in estuarine/saline waters, even if it has colonised brackish waters. Our results suggest that future decreasing salinity could enhance respiration rate, and so energy requirements, of large-bodied zooplankton in estuarine areas such as the Baltic Sea and could lead to lower food quality availability for coastal planktivorous fish, such as herring and sprat.
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Despite the growing attention which green human resource management (GHRM) has been gaining, the field is still remarkably young, and conceptual clarity is yet to be attained. A bibliometric review of GHRM from 2010 to 2020 was conducted on the Web of Science and analyzed using the VOSviewer software package, version 1.6.16 developed by Van Eck and Waltman (Leiden, The Netherlands). The results show the exponential growth of this topic, although there seems to be no consensus regarding its definition, conceptualization and measurement. Concerning its conceptual development, GHRM seems to currently fit the second stage of development (evaluation and augmentation) of Reichers and Schneider’s three-stage model of the evolution of constructs. Future research seems to point in the direction of establishing the barriers separating GHRM from other human resource management topics, defining green practices and determining the antecedents and consequences of GHRM.
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This article discusses towns in the inner areas affected by depopulation. It starts with a broad introduction to illustrate the critical issues that threaten their very existence, but also their potential and hope, and the planning capabilities that sometimes characterise the communities that inhabit them. It then describes a methodology which outlines sustainable local development processes based on knowledge, safeguarding and enhancing the cultural heritage (tangible and intangible; natural and anthropic). The aim is to contribute ideas and substantial proposals to improve the quality of life of the inhabitants of villages in the inner areas, creating new work opportunities linked to cultural and experiential tourism, strengthening the local identity and social networks. This methodology was tested as part of a research project – The Diaspora as a Resource for the Knowledge, Preservation and Enhancement of the Lesser Known Cultural Sites in Albania – carried out from 1 May 2019 to 31 July 2020 by the Interdepartmental Research Unit Florence Accessibility Lab of the University of Florence on behalf of the International Organization for Migration- IOM (the United Nations agency for migration). Members of the Albanian diaspora in Italy (university students and young architects and researchers) were part of the working group of the research, which focused on five Albanian villages situated from the north to the south of the country. Questo articolo tratta dei paesi delle aree interne interessati dal fenomeno dello spopolamento. L’articolo si apre con un’ampia introduzione finalizzata ad illustrare le criticità che minacciano la loro stessa esistenza, ma anche le potenzialità e le speranze che esprimono e le progettualità che talvolta caratterizzano le comunità che li abitano. Successivamente è descritta una metodologia volta a delineare processi di sviluppo locale sostenibile basati sulla conoscenza, salvaguardia e valorizzazione del patrimonio culturale (tangibile e intangibile; naturale e an- tropico). L’obiettivo è quello di offrire un contributo di idee e di proposte concrete volto a migliorare la qualità della vita degli abitanti dei paesi delle aree interne, creando nuove opportunità di lavoro legate al turismo culturale e di esperienza, rafforzando l’identità locale e le reti sociali. Questa metodologia è stata testata nell’ambito di una ricerca – The Diaspora as a Resource for the Knowledge, Preservation and Enhancement of the Lesser Known Cultural Sites in Albania – svolta dal 1° maggio 2019 al 31 luglio 2020 dall’Unità di Ricerca Interdipartimentale Florence Accessibility Lab dell’Università di Firenze per conto dell’International Organization for Migration- IOM (l’Agenzia delle Nazioni Unite per la migrazione). Nel gruppo di lavoro della ricerca, incentrata su cinque villaggi albanesi situati da sud a nord del Paese, hanno prestato il loro lavoro membri della diaspora albanese in Italia (studenti universitari, giovani architetti e ricercatori).
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In the ongoing climate crisis, more and more states of the world undertake initiatives that would reduce negative impact of dangerous growth of global average temperature, including droughts, drowning of coastal cities and water shortage. Recently, an ambitious idea to provide huge supplies of water for the population of the United Arab Emirates was initiated by one of Emirati businessmen – Mr Abdulla Alsheni, who plans to tow a huge Antarctic iceberg to the coast of Emirates. The plan itself is a logistic challenge, but at the same time may raise certain concerns on its compliance with international law. Hereby article has as an aim response to a question whether an act of towing an Antarctic iceberg would breach international law provisions, particularly those related to Antarctic Treaty System and law of the seas.
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This paper demonstrates how various part-solutions can be combined in different scenarios for a more climate-neutral electric energy system. The case study is the Finnish electric energy system. Four scenarios are discussed. A base scenario for 2030 consists of already agreed future investments in new energy production facilities by 2022 supplemented by additional consumption and a moderate increase in renewable energy generation. Alongside the base scenario 2030, two scenarios with more ambitious renewable energy targets and flexibility issues are examined. The fourth scenario is for year 2050 analyzing the operational properties of the system with high share of variable renewable generation, flexible loads, and high-capacity energy storages. These scenarios help to assess how, for example, investing in wind or solar production, heat pumps on a large scale or the battery storage of electric vehicles influences the other components of the system and the implications for emissions.
Conference Paper
This paper reviews oil (and gas) supply forecasting models and subsequently espouses atypical modeling approaches for the optimal allocation of crude oil production. This paper becomes imperative within the context of the global energy transition and the future of the oil and gas industry in Africa in general and Nigeria, in particular. A categorization framework has been utilized to classify oil supply forecasting models based on regional focus, modelling techniques, and outcomes. The log – log functional form is adopted in this paper to forecast oil production in Nigeria and subsequently optimize its allocation. A review of literature indicates that oil (and gas) supply forecasting has a long history and in recent times, there has been the tendency to rely on models that integrate engineering with economics. The models used to project oil and gas production to meet climate goals have now inputted environmental targets. This review of oil production forecast models is carried out against the backdrop of the need to optimally allocate Nigeria's future oil production to diverse uses. This will have impact on expected oil export earnings, domestic fuels’ imports, and the potential for petroleum products’ export earnings.
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Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming world, which could have substantial impacts on the environment, social property, and human health, especially in densely populated regions. In this study, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was used as a case study to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of daily, daytime, and nighttime extreme precipitation events (EPEs), and the population exposure to EPEs based on observational precipitation and population data. The EPEs both in days (duration) and amount (magnitude) showed obvious south-north gradients, with high values occurring in the south and low values in the north. A few stations in the northern parts of the YRD showed weak decreasing trends in extreme precipitation days and amounts during 1961–2018, whereas most of the stations showed positive trends. The stations with significantly increasing trends were mainly located in the central and eastern parts of the YRD. All the EPE indices for the whole area showed increasing trends during 1961–2018. Population exposure to daily, daytime, and nighttime extreme precipitation days (amounts) increased by 37% (40%), 34% (39%), and 41% (41%), respectively, from the early period (1984–1993) to the later period (2009–2018). The significant increase in total exposure to EPEs was dominated by the effect of rapid population growth during 1984–2018. An atmospheric circulation analysis of the EPEs in 2016 showed that the anomalously strong warm and wet southwesterly water vapor transport from April to October (except for August) on the northwest side of the West Pacific subtropical high merged with cold air, resulting in abnormally more EPEs and exposure in 2016 than any other years of the study period in the YRD. The findings provide information useful to adaptation and mitigation policymaking for regions with conditions similar to the YRD.
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The growing demand for low-carbon fuel is predicted by ultimate goals to fit the carbon neutrality by 2050 in many countries and regions including the European Union. According to the International Energy Agency, the CO2 emissions related to transportation stand for around 30% of total annual emissions, and so, the decarbonization of the mobility sector has the highest priority. In this work, we attempt to evaluate the expected demand for low-carbon fuels, including blue and green hydrogen, and low-carbon electricity in order to compare the available and required capacities of low-carbon fuels and electricity. According to our calculations based on the figures from 2020, the transition toward H2 mobility would require an amount of hydrogen equal to 366 million tons/annum, and by 2035, this requirement will increase up to 422 million tons/annum, which is several times larger than the existing H2 production capacities. We have estimated the volume of the carbon capture and storage facilities required for full decarbonization of the mobility sector globally, and in the case of hydrogen mobility driven by blue hydrogen, it exceeds 4.0 billions tons of CO2 per annum, while the decarbonization of coal-fired plants will require more than 10.0 billions tons of CO2 per annum. In addition to the calculation of required resources, we have estimated the cost of the fuel and required capital investments and have compared different possible solutions from different points of view: economic viability, technical readiness, and social perception. Finally, it can be concluded that the decarbonization of the mobility sector would require a complex solution involving both low-carbon hydrogen and electrification, and the capacities of low-carbon fuel must be significantly increased in the following decade to fulfill the climate goals.
Article
The freight transportation sector accounted for 10.1% of global emissions and 16.2% of Quebec's greenhouse gas emissions in 2018. In this sector, the most salient yet little explored behavioral change opportunity is the modal shift from heavy trucks to trains. Current model developments are being made so that E4 modelers represent modal choices as endogenous variables in the models. However, if we want to continue to improve the realism of the models, it is important to know if this modeling technique is suitable for a world where radical changes are required. In this study, two types of modal shifts are implemented and compared in a TIMES-type energy model: exogenous modal shifts, with demand-side scenarios, and endogenous modal shifts, with the introduction of substitution elasticities as an endogenous behavioral feature of the model. The results of this study show that only the exogenous approach allows the modeling of disruptions: in demand, in energy consumption, and in system costs. With respect to vehicle type, the exogenous approach avoids investments in complex infrastructure (i.e., catenary), at least in the medium term, while the endogenous approach leads to results where electric trucks and catenaries appear in 2030. Only the scenario with a significant modal shift from heavy trucks to trains (Exog_max) avoids substantial energy consumption (17 PJ in 2030 and 10 PJ in 2050). The concluding recommendation is to use the exogenous approach in a disruptive modeling context. In a world where a paradigm shift is needed, the exogenous approach allows for a better representation of concepts that have been seldom modeled until now.
Article
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a proposed method for removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere by the accelerated weathering of (ultra-)basic minerals to increase alkalinity – the chemical capacity of seawater to store CO2. During the weathering of OAE-relevant minerals relatively large amounts of trace metals will be released and may perturb pelagic ecosystems. Nickel (Ni) is of particular concern as it is abundant in olivine, one of the most widely considered minerals for OAE. However, so far there is limited knowledge about the impact of Ni on marine biota including phytoplankton. To fill this knowledge gap, this study tested the growth and photo-physiological response of 11 marine phytoplankton species to a wide range of dissolved Ni concentrations (from 0.07 to 50 000 nmol L−1). We found that the phytoplankton species were not very sensitive to Ni concentrations under the culturing conditions established in our experiments, but the responses were species-specific. The growth rates of 6 of the 11 tested species showed generally limited but still significant responses to changing Ni concentrations (36 % maximum change). Photosynthetic performance, assessed by measuring the maximum quantum yield (Fv/Fm) and the functional absorption cross-section (σPSII) of photosystem II (PSII), was sensitive to changing Ni in 3 out of 11 species (35 % maximum change) and 4 out of 11 species (16 % maximum change), respectively. The limited effect of Ni may be partly due to the provision of nitrate as the nitrogen source for growth as previous studies suggest higher sensitivities when urea is the nitrogen source. Furthermore, the limited influence may be due to the relatively high concentrations of synthetic organic ligands added to the growth media in our experiments. These ligands are commonly added to control trace metal bioavailability and therefore for example “free Ni2+” concentrations by binding the majority of the dissolved Ni. Our data suggest that dissolved Ni does not have a strong effect on phytoplankton under our experimental conditions, but we emphasize that a deeper understanding of nitrogen sources, ligand concentrations, and phytoplankton composition is needed when assessing the influence of Ni release associated with OAE.
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Climate change has become one of the highlighted issues of the world, resulting in vulnerability and adverse effects on livelihoods. It leads to an undeniable challenge for policymakers, the government, and other respective associations to formulate effective strategies; however, before formulating any coping, adaptation, or mitigation strategies, understanding the reality and perception of local people is crucial. This study investigated whether local farmers inhabiting Lower Mustang are aware of climatic change. The study comprised various methodologies, such as household surveys, field visits and focus group discussions (FGD). The farmers’ responses were consistent with the actual temperature and precipitation data recorded between 1973 and 2018 at meteorological stations situated near the aforementioned regions. The finding shows that the average annual temperature of this region has risen by 0.021 °C/year over the last 45 years. Similarly, the annual precipitation increased 1.83 mm/year on average, which was also acknowledged by local farmers. From the field visit, it was also noticed that the vulnerability of climate change is considerably high and has insufficient capacity to cope with climate change. Thus, the government, and other stakeholders should assist in building the adaptive capacity of this Himalayan region.
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Plant survival during environmental stress greatly affects ecosystem carbon (C) cycling, and plant–microbe interactions are central to plant stress survival. The release of C-rich root exudates is a key mechanism plants use to manage their microbiome, attracting beneficial microbes and/or suppressing harmful microbes to help plants withstand environmental stress. However, a critical knowledge gap is how plants alter root exudate concentration and composition under varying stress levels. In a greenhouse study, we imposed three drought treatments (control, mild, severe) on blue grama ( Bouteloua gracilis Kunth Lag. Ex Griffiths), and measured plant physiology and root exudate concentration and composition using GC–MS, NMR, and FTICR. With increasing drought severity, root exudate total C and organic C increased concurrently with declining predawn leaf water potential and photosynthesis. Root exudate composition mirrored the physiological gradient of drought severity treatments. Specific compounds that are known to alter plant drought responses and the rhizosphere microbiome mirrored the drought severity-induced root exudate compositional gradient. Despite reducing C uptake, these plants actively invested C to root exudates with increasing drought severity. Patterns of plant physiology and root exudate concentration and composition co-varied along a gradient of drought severity.
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In boreal North America, much of the landscape is covered by fire-adapted forests dominated by serotinous conifers. For these forests, reductions in fire return interval could limit reproductive success, owing to insufficient time for stands to reach reproductive maturity i.e., to initiate cone production. Improved understanding of the drivers of reproductive maturity can provide important information about the capacity of these forests to self-replace following fire. Here, we assessed the drivers of reproductive maturity in two dominant and widespread conifers, semi-serotinous black spruce and serotinous jack pine. Presence or absence of female cones were recorded in approximately 15,000 individuals within old and recently burned stands in two distinct ecozones of the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. Our results show that reproductive maturity was triggered by a minimum tree size threshold rather than an age threshold, with trees reaching reproductive maturity at smaller sizes where environmental conditions were more stressful. The number of reproductive trees per plot increased with stem density, basal area, and at higher latitudes (colder locations). The harsh climatic conditions present at these higher latitudes, however, limited the recruitment of jack pine at the treeline ecotone. The number of reproductive black spruce trees increased with deeper soils, whereas the number of reproductive jack pine trees increased where soils were shallower. We examined the reproductive efficiency i.e., the number of seedlings recruited per reproductive tree, linking pre-fire reproductive maturity of recently burned stands and post-fire seedling recruitment (recorded up to 4 years after the fires) and found that a reproductive jack pine can recruit on average three times more seedlings than a reproductive black spruce. We suggest that the higher reproductive efficiency of jack pine can explain the greater resilience of this species to wildfire compared with black spruce. Overall, these results help link life history characteristics, such as reproductive maturity, to variation in post-fire recruitment of dominant serotinous conifers.
Chapter
This chapter briefly revisits the beginning of life on the planet and how the humans thrived and flourished historically. It explores the complexity of the mysterious human mind, otherwise highly adaptable and restless. Can humans justify a phenomenal increase in their population and life span since the Industrial Revolution? Have they really done justice to Mother Earth? Do their everyday mundane endeavours—to live longer and be materially comfortable, wealthier and powerful—obscure their power-centric political mind to register the seriousness of their looming existential issues—global warming, Climate Change, loss of biodiversity, religious fanaticism, ideological polarisation, overdependence on technology and loss of humanness? Does their restless exploration of other planets indicate that the Earth may not be habitable at all in the foreseeable future?
Article
Su ürünleri yetiştiriciliği, şu anda daha fazla balık biyokütlesini oluşturan av balıkçılığı ile gıda üretiminin en hızlı büyüyen sektörüdür. Ne yazık ki, su ürünleri yetiştiriciliğinin sürdürülebilirliği, iklim değişikliğinin sadece gelecek değil, aynı zamanda mevcut bir gerçeklik olan öngörülen yansımaları nedeniyle tehlikeye atılmaktadır. Bu derlemede iklim değişikliğinin su ürünleri verimliliği üzerindeki olası etkilerini ve sektörün uzun vadeli uygulanabilirliği üzerindeki sonuçlarını inceliyoruz. Yükselen sıcaklıklar, deniz seviyesinin yükselmesi, hastalıklar ve zehirli alg patlamaları, yağış düzenlerindeki değişiklikler, öngörülemeyen dış girdi arzı, deniz yüzeyi tuzluluğundaki değişiklikler ve yıkıcı iklim olayları dahil olmak üzere değişen bir iklimin çeşitli yönleri göz önünde bulundurulmuştur. İklim değişikliğinin etkileri uzun süreli ve neredeyse kesinlikle kalıcı olacak ve sektörde çalışan insanların ekonomisine zarar verecek. Sonuç olarak, balıkçılık yetkilileri, iklim değişikliğinin su ürünleri yetiştiriciliği üzerindeki etkisinin kapsamını kavramak ve olası etkilerini planlamak, ayrıca sonuçların çeşitlerini belirlemek ve bunları yönetmek için yeterli bir tepki tasarlamak için daha fazla çaba sarf etmelidir.
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Three of the main challenges in achieving rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector in the near term are getting to net-zero while maintaining grid reliability and minimizing cost. In this policy analysis, we evaluate the performance of a variety of generation strategies using this "triple objective" including nuclear, renewables with different energy storage options, and carbon-emitting generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACS) technologies. Given the current U.S. tax credits for carbon sequestration under Section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code, we find that two options: (1) cofiring bioenergy in existing coal-fired assets equipped with CCS, and (2) coupling existing natural gas combined-cycle plants equipped with CCS and DACS, robustly dominate other generation strategies across many assumptions and uncertainties. As a result, capacity-expansion modelers, planners, and policymakers should consider such combinations of carbon-constrained fossil-fuel and negative emissions technologies, together with modifications of the current national incentives, when designing the pathways to a carbon-free economy.
Article
Climate change can be an important additional risk for the financial sector. For (large) investments in real estate, it is becoming increasingly important to take climate related risks into account. Yet, generating tailored physical climate risk information to make meaningful decisions about investment portfolios remains difficult. Using literature review, semi-structured interviews and reflection on four case studies implemented in the Netherlands, this paper presents lessons learned and recommendations for improving Physical Climate Risk Assessments (PCRA) for the financial sector. Results from the literature review show that simply selecting a PCRA methodology does not guarantee uptake of information by end-users, because there is no single approach that is suitable for all contexts. From the case interviews, we conclude that effective PCRA information is helpful for the financial sector in several ways; first, it supports investors to pinpoint which assets need attention and how much money is required to mitigate the impacts. Second, they serve as a template upon which clients make purchasing decisions. Third, they serve as a tool for determining the choice of building materials and the structure of properties. Fourth, they assist firms in the development of plausible adaptation strategies. Furthermore, we identified five cardinal points (that incorporate the perspectives of both providers and end-users) to improve the PCRA process: 1) Engagement and co-production, 2) Needs identification, 3) Data availability and quality, 4) Internal integration, and 5) Communication. These recommendation points will serve as a valuable reference to guide the selection and implementation of the most appropriate PCRA method for a given situation.
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Study region Lake Tana sub-basin, Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Study focuses This study evaluated the degree to which climate is changing in the region, and its impact on stream flow of watersheds simulated by Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) emission scenario using six climate models including CanESM2, EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2- ES, NORESM1-M, and CSIRO-Mk3–6–0 by comparing the last thirty years of the past century (1971–2000) and the same years of this century (2071–2100). Bias correction for maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall data obtained from all climate models have been done using CMhyd software. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated using eleven sensitive hydrological parameters. New hydrological insights The result revealed that the change in maximum temperature ranges from 2.93 °C (November) and 5.17 °C (March), and the change in minimum temperature also ranges from 3.08 °C to 4.79 °C on a monthly basis. Rainfall is expected to increase up to 29.75% (November) and decrease up to 9.26% (March) in different seasons. Due to the change in climate, a flow is predicted to increase up to 27.82%, 27.47%, 26.47%, and 24.97% in Ribb, Gilgel Abay, Gumara, and Megech watersheds, respectively, and it is also decreasing in winter and spring seasons. On average, the streamflow is expected to increase by 5.89%, 5.63%, 4.92%, and 4.87% in Ribb, Gumara, Megech, and Gilgel Abay watersheds, respectively.
Research
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As the population, economy and urban built environment in the Gauteng City-Region (GCR) expand, government is increasingly under pressure to provide urban infrastructure to support growth. It is increasingly important that this infrastructure is sustainable, minimising the negative environmental impacts often associated with traditional forms of urban development. Green Infrastructure (GI) is the interconnected set of natural and man-made ecological systems, green spaces and other landscape features that provide services and strategic functions in the same way as traditional infrastructure. In harnessing the benefits of ecosystem services, GI has emerged as a more efficient, cost effective and sustainable alternative – and sometimes accompanying approach – to conventional forms of infrastructure. Despite international evidence demonstrating how GI can be used as an alternative to, or in tandem with, traditional infrastructure, the GI approach has so far gained only limited traction in the GCR. In 2013 the GCRO published the State of Green Infrastructure in the GCR report. The report established the principles that underpin GI, used available data to map the extent of GI networks in the region, assessed to what extent municipalities were aware of and applying a GI approach, and demonstrated a possible way to value GI in local government financial systems. The conclusions of the State of Green Infrastructure report were used to guide the next phase of GCRO’s research in support of the adoption of GI approach – a phase focused on better understanding the opportunities for implementing GI in planning and infrastructure development programmes and on addressing some of the challenges associated with shifts towards this approach. A framework for a green infrastructure planning approach in the Gauteng City-Region, GCRO’s fourth Research Report, builds on the foundations laid in the State of Green Infrastructure report. It assembles expert inputs and reflections from collaborative stakeholder discussions in what was known as the Green Infrastructure CityLab to illustrate important considerations for the development of a GI planning approach in the Gauteng City-Region (GCR). The report is divided into three broad sections. Part A introduces the theoretical underpinnings of a GI approach and builds an argument for the importance of incorporating GI into planning and infrastructure development in the GCR. Part B presents three pieces written by external experts. They consider how GI and ecosystem services can be valued by municipalities, and how so-called ‘grey-green’ infrastructure design solutions can be implemented in the GCR. Part C reflects on the stakeholder engagement process that has been undertaken, primarily through the GI CityLab, to deepen understanding of how GI can be embedded in municipal practice. Based on these research findings, this report concludes with a strategy for GCRO’s next phase of work in its ongoing Green Assets and Infrastructure Project. A third Research Report on GI is expected in early 2017. This will present a set of detailed investigative studies that further build the case for incorporating GI into municipal planning and infrastructure investment in the GCR.
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Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pathways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to (1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses.
Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre
  • Arctic Council
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Climate-Smart Agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
FAO, 2018: Climate-Smart Agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Retrieved from: www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture.
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