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Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty

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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report is a comprehensive assessment of our understanding of global warming of 1.5°C, future climate change, potential impacts and associated risks, emission pathways, and system transitions consistent with 1.5°C global warming, and strengthening the global response to climate change in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
... on all continents and in the oceans has led to changes in ecosystems and societies, revealing their vulnerability. Limiting ultimate global warming to 1.5°C relative to the preindustrial era will require immediate, far-reaching, and sustained emissions reductions, with the transition to net zero emissions globally achieved by about 2050 and net negative emissions thereafter (IPCC, 2018). Therefore, to mitigate advancing climate change, policy makers, organisations, individuals, and local communities will need to work together to implement policies in line with this scientific evidence. ...
... Once again, the Arctic will warm faster than the global average and land temperatures will rise more than ocean temperatures. However, alternative future scenarios are equally possible, in which temperatures are limited to 1.5°C compared to the beginning of the industrial era (IPCC, 2018(IPCC, , 2021. Thus, 1.5°C-5°C is the warming we can expect by the end of this century, depending on the choices we as humanity make in the coming decades. ...
... A warming of 2°C compared to the preindustrial period will lead to an increased risk of extreme weather events, further sea level rise, and ocean acidification. This will most likely mean the end of our corals and the viability of several island states (IPCC, 2018). It may also endanger several ecosystems and societies, especially small islands, river deltas, and low-lying coastal areas. ...
... Our analysis considers regional resource endowments, land availability for wind and solar power installations, domestic energy demand and country-specific discount rates, which reflect the heterogeneous financial costs across countries 13 . As climate mitigation scenarios anticipate significant expansion in wind and solar energy 14 , and our primary objective is to elucidate concepts rather than predict the eventual winners among technologies, this study primarily focuses on wind and solar energy, in addition to existing hydropower, for the sake of simplicity. ...
... The annual electricity consumption for each country in 2050 is estimated by extrapolating the annual demand in 2016 82 . This extrapolation is based on the regional demand growth between 2016 and 2050 in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 scenario outlined in the IPCC report 14 . We then estimate the hourly demand profile based on a machine learning approach which adopts historical demand profiles for 44 countries as input to a gradient boosting regression model 83 to calculate the hourly demand profile. ...
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Renewable energy resources are widely available, yet they are unevenly distributed globally. In a renewable future, countries lacking high-quality renewable resources may choose to import energy from other countries. To assess the resource-dependent and techno-economic basis for global renewable energy trade and identify potential importers and exporters, this study introduces two new metrics: Renewable Export Cost Index (Cost Index) and Renewable Export Volume Index (Volume Index). These metrics are computed based on regional resource potential, domestic energy demand and varying financial costs across countries, without the need for any energy system modeling. By applying these two metrics to 165 countries/regions, we identify countries with significant potential for exporting renewable energy (e.g., the US, China) and those that lack the domestic resources to satisfy demand (e.g., South Korea, Japan). The Cost Index and Volume Index are validated through a separate analysis, employing a comprehensive energy system model for each country/region.
... In contrast, net zero encompasses a broader scope, aiming to balance all greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, with their removal from the atmosphere. When these emissions are converted to carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), the total emissions released must equal the emissions removed [2]- [4]. ...
... This agreement provided the political and policy framework that would catalyze the widespread adoption of more ambitious climate targets [11]. The IPCC's 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C further emphasized the urgency of achieving these goals, establishing 2050 as a critical deadline for reaching net zero emissions globally [4]. ...
Article
In the face of escalating climate change, two interconnected concepts have emerged as critical strategies for environmental sustainability: carbon neutrality and net zero emissions. These are not mere buzzwords; they represent our lifeline to a sustainable future. While these terms are often used interchangeably, they represent distinct approaches with varying scopes and implementation methods, both aimed at addressing the urgent challenge of climate change. Carbon neutrality, also known as; net zero carbon emissions; focuses on achieving a balance between carbon dioxide emissions and removal from the atmosphere. This balance is achieved through a combination of emission reduction efforts and carbon offsetting mechanisms. In contrast, net zero encompasses a broader scope, aiming to balance all greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, with their removal from the atmosphere. When these emissions are converted to carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), the total emissions released must equal the emissions removed.
... According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global average annual temperature is expected to rise by 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 (compared to pre-industrial levels) due to greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2018). A rise in global temperature causes extreme weather events, which pose an increased risk to nature, the economic, and to human health (Eitelwein et al., 2024). ...
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Background Consumer-grade wearables are becoming increasingly popular in research and in clinical contexts. These technologies hold significant promise for advancing digital medicine, particularly in remote and rural areas in low-income settings like sub-Saharan Africa, where climate change is exacerbating health risks. This study evaluates the data agreement between consumer-grade and research-established devices under standardized conditions. Methods Twenty-two participants (11 women, 11 men) performed a structured protocol, consisting of six different activity phases (sitting, standing, and the first four stages of the classic Bruce treadmill test). We collected heart rate, (core) body temperature, step count, and energy expenditure. Each variable was simultaneously tracked by consumer-grade and established research-grade devices to evaluate the validity of the consumer-grade devices. We statistically compared the data agreement using Pearson’s correlation r , Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (LCCC), Bland-Altman method, and mean absolute percentage error. Results A good agreement was found between the wrist-worn Withings Pulse HR (consumer-grade) and the chest-worn Faros Bittium 180 in measuring heart rate while sitting, standing, and slow walking on a treadmill at a speed of 2.7 km/h ( r ≥ 0.82, |bias| ≤ 3.1 bpm), but this decreased with increasing speed ( r ≤ 0.33, |bias| ≤ 11.7 bpm). The agreement between the Withing device and the research-established device worn on the wrist (GENEActiv) for measuring the number of steps also decreased during the treadmill phases (first stage: r = 0.48, bias = 0.6 steps/min; fourth stage: r = 0.48, bias = 17.3 steps/min). Energy expenditure agreement between the Withings device and the indirect calorimetry method was poor during the treadmill test (| r | ≤ 0.29, |bias | ≥ 1.7 MET). The Tucky thermometer under the armpit (consumer-grade) and the Tcore sensor on the forehead were found to be in poor agreement in measuring (core) body temperature during resting phases ( r ≤ 0.53, |bias| ≥ 0.8°C) and deteriorated during the treadmill test. Conclusion The Withings device showed adequate performance for heart rate at low activity levels and step count at higher activity levels, but had limited overall accuracy. The Tucky device showed poor agreement with the Tcore in all six different activity phases. The limited accuracy of consumer-grade devices suggests caution in their use for rigorous research, but points to their potential utility in capture general physiological trends in long-term field monitoring or population-health surveillance.
... The impact of global climate change on the cryosphere has been widely studied in recent decades (IPCC, 2019). Since snow cover is highly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, the ongoing climate change, marked by rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, significantly affects snow availability Gobiet et al., 2014;Steger et al., 2013). ...
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Despite the large availability of satellite and in-situ data on snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, long-term assessments at an adequate resolution to capture the complexities of mountainous terrains remain limited, particularly for countries like Switzerland. This study addresses this gap by employing two products-the monthly NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) and snow cover products-derived from the Snow Observation from Space (SOfS) algorithm to monitor snow cover dynamics across Switzerland over the past 37 years. The pixel-wise analysis reveals significant negative trends in the monthly NDSI across all seasons, with the most pronounced decreases at low to mid-elevations, particularly in winter and spring (e.g., a 50% reduction in NDSI for pixels showing positive significative trends in winter below 1,000 m, and a 43% reduction in spring between 1,000 and 2,000 m). Similarly, snow cover area has declined significantly, with reductions of −13% to −15% in spring for the transitional zones between 1,000-1,500 m and 1,500-2,000 m. Furthermore, the monthly NDSI values are more strongly influenced by temperature than precipitation, especially at lower altitudes. To estimate trends in snow cover for the 21st century, we modelled the relationship between snow presence and two climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) using a binomial generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). In the context of climate change, projections under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios suggest further declines in snow cover by the end of the century. Even with moderate climate action (RCP 2.6), snow-free areas could expand by 22% at lower elevations by 2100. Under the more extreme scenario (RCP 8.5), snow-free regions could increase by over 43%, with significant impacts during the transitional months of April and May. The SOfS algorithm, developed within the Swiss Data Cube, provides valuable insights into snow cover dynamics across Switzerland. Complementing in-situ observations, this innovative approach is essential for assessing snow cover changes and guiding adaptation strategies in a country where snow is not only an environmental indicator but also a cultural and economic asset.
... These extreme events have negative effects on humans and society, including loss of life [6], increased financial risk in the energy sector [7], and substantial impacts on crop growth [8] and health of newborns [9]. Evidence suggests that anthropogenic global warming has increased the probability of extreme events such as heat waves and cold spells, droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones [10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. ...
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In July 2023, 19 continuous days of very hot days in Hong Kong brought inconvenience to citizens and disasters to society. This long-lasting heat wave event is closely linked to the atmospheric variability on the quasi-biweekly to intraseasonal timescales. While extreme weather has aroused the attention of scientists and society, limited studies focus on quasi-biweekly to intraseasonal extreme (QBIE) weather. Thus, to address this issue, this study aims at examining the climatology and long-term variability of these QBIE events in Hong Kong. This study serves as one of the very few fundamental works that construct a century-long record of QBIE temperature events, based on in situ observation in Hong Kong, and further examines the climatology, diversity, and variability of these QBIE temperature events. A total of 382 QBIE heat waves and 510 QBIE cold surges are identified from 1885 to 2022, exhibiting various characteristics in their occurring time and seasonality. Based on ARIMA model and time series analyses, we find that while apparent interannual variability exists in QBIE heat wave and cold surge activity, short-term climate prediction of QBIE temperature events based on past patterns or common climate indices is largely unfeasible. This research provides a valuable historical reference for understanding QBIE weather in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macau Greater Bay Area and highlights the need for further studies on the predictability of QBIE weather in the future.
... Simultaneously, there is an abundance of agricultural and industrial wastes or by-products that could potentially be utilised. Agriculture currently covers approximately 38% of the world's land area [5] and is responsible for 23% of the total net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [6]. A major current criticism is the low efficiency of livestock in converting feed into protein suitable for human consumption, as well as the competition between using cereals for livestock feed versus direct human consumption. ...
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Citation: Sabia, E.; Braghieri, A.; Vignozzi, L.; Paolino, R.; Cosentino, C.; Di Trana, A.; Pacelli, C. Carbon Abstract: Using by-products in livestock feed can be an additional strategy for safeguarding land use in agriculture and reducing the environmental impact of animal production. Studies conducted on farms to assess the environmental impact of milk and meat production using life-cycle assessment (LCA) tools reveal that feeding accounts for approximately one-third. This study aimed to calculate the carbon footprint (CF) of three different concentrated feeds for livestock, both with and without the inclusion of by-products in the formulation. Three different formulations of concentrated feeds for dairy cows were developed homogeneously regarding energy content and crude protein. The LCA approach assessed CF in kg CO 2 eq.; the functional unit was 1 kg of concentrate feed. A sensitive analysis of soybean meal's association with deforestation was formulated. The concentrated feed with by-products demonstrated a lower impact on CF of 23.7% and 37.0% compared to concentrated feed with a mix of raw material and by-products, and solely with raw material, respectively. Using agricultural by-products to produce concentrated feed for livestock sectors can be an environmentally sound alternative in terms of carbon footprint.
... It has repeatedly been demonstrated that human activities, particularly those located in industrial economies based on fossil fuel extraction and consumption, have irrevocably changed the climate. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate change is already having an impact on weather and climate extremes across the globe, including increased heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones (IPCC, 2022). While there is significant research on the present and potential impacts of climate change, it is still debated by researchers how climate change affects migration decisions and the movement of people in a changing world. ...
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Human mobility in the context of climate change is often identified as one of the largest future impacts of the climate crisis. It is often assumed by international institutions and national governments that climate change will drive mass migration movements across borders, leading to a prioritization of research that aims to predict future climate migration to aid border security and the creation of migration policies. This article focuses on knowledge production research concerning around climate-related mobility and how knowledge being produced upholds state-centric approaches to migration and migration management. It argues that by leaving state-centric approaches to migration unquestioned in the name of managing climate-related mobility, national governments and other institutions reproduce inequalities for those who are in the nexus of migration and climate change. This article considers alternative conceptions of mobility and climate change, including the climate mobilities paradigm and decolonial understandings of migration, and how these can shift our analytical focus to more holistic and decolonial understandings of migration.
... Anthropogenic climate change increases the intensity, duration, and frequency of many hydrological, meteorological, climatological, and biological hazards (IPCC, 2018(IPCC, , 2021Stott et al., 2016). Two hazards that are of particular relevance due to the large number of people projected to be displaced are floods (Kakinuma et al., 2020;Kam et al., 2021) and sea-level-rise-related coastal erosion (Hauer et al., 2020;Wrathall et al., 2019). ...
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Various studies predict large migration flows due to climatic and other environmental changes, yet the ex post empirical evidence for such migration is inconclusive. To examine the causal link between environmental changes and migration for a population residing along the Jamuna River in Bangladesh, an area heavily affected by floods and riverbank erosion, I relate the respondents’ self-reported affectedness by environmental changes, their migration aspirations, and their capability to move to their migration likelihood. The analysis relies on a unique quasi-experimental research design based on original survey panel data of 1604 household heads. I find that erosion significantly and substantively increases the likelihood to migrate, leading to more than a doubling of the migration likelihood compared to the unaffected control group. Flooding has a significant effect only if it causes severe and irreversible impacts. Moreover, erosion affectedness increases the likelihood of moving permanently, with the whole household, and to a rural location. Individual, temporary moves to urban locations, by contrast, are primarily driven by low socio-economic status. Those who move with the whole household migrate mostly less than five kilometers. These findings call for a more nuanced understanding of the complex environment-migration nexus. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7.
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Human-induced emissions demand effective CO 2 separation technologies. Energy-efficient membranes, like MXenes with 2D structures, enhance selective gas permeation. This review highlights advancements in improving CO 2 retention of MXene membranes, including self-standing, ion-intercalation, and modification techniques. It also examines MXenes in mixed matrix membranes to optimize CO 2 permeation. Strategies addressing the selectivity-permeability trade-off, humidified MXenes, and hybrid fillers are discussed, along with challenges and future directions in MXene-based CO 2 separation technologies.
Technical Report
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Este documento reúne los principales hallazgos de una revisión sistemática de fuentes científicas, literatura gris y material histórico sobre el conocimiento ecológico tradicional (CET) ligado a los sistemas agroecológicos y pesqueros. Responde al objetivo de documentar y caracterizar el CET asociado a estos sistemas, así como sus mecanismos de deterioro, transformación o marginación, mecanismos de salvaguarda, su vínculo con el cambio climático y posibles colaboraciones entre el CET, ciencia y gestión. Se trata de un documento de partida que se irá nutriendo de los aportes consecutivos del proyecto, reflejando el objetivo principal del mismo: poner en valor el conocimiento ecológico tradicional de los sistemas agroecológicos y pesqueros útil para la adaptación al cambio climático y promover su implementación en investigación y políticas públicas.
Chapter
Climate change has a dramatic impact on soil salinisation. According to the FAO, Land and Plant Nutrition Management Service, over 6% (over 400 million hectares of topsoil at a depth of 0–30 cm and 833 million hectares of subsoil at a depth of 30–100 cm) of the world’s land area are affected by salinisation or sodicity, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Halophytes are evolutionarily adapted to saline conditions on an ecophysiological, biochemical, and molecular level. Diverse adaptations of halophytes to extreme environmental conditions make them useful in saline agriculture not only as an alternative to conventional crops that can withstand future climatic challenges, but also as a source of feedstock for bioenergy production. Halophytes can also be used in a variety of bio-based and non-bio-based industries, and serve as the basis for innovative concepts, technologies, services, products, or market segments. In addition, halophytes can facilitate soil remediation through various forms of bioremediation (phytoextraction, phytostabilisation, rhizodegradation, and phytovolatilisation). This group of plants can help to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and thus mitigate global climate change. The use of the properties and potential offered by halophytes is consistent with the principles and guidelines of international governmental and non-governmental organisations, the concepts of saline agriculture, and the goals of the circular economy and an integrated Bioeconomy.
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The key issue behind the recent global climate change is a continuous increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Emission of greenhouse gases during the time period from 2010 to 2019 was higher across the globe than the previous time periods in human history. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases since 1850–1900 is responsible for warming of 1.1 °C. Taking note of the serious issues of global climate change, world governments in the year 1992 agreed on a global treaty called ‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’ for stabilising the concentration of greenhouse gases. Subsequently, Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 aimed ‘to hold global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels’. Countries made commitments under the Paris Agreement through their nationally determined contribution. Protection of forested lands, improved forest management, restoration of degraded forests and other ecosystems have major potential to offset emission of greenhouse gases. As per the India State of Forest Reports, carbon stocks in India’s forest increased from 6071 million tonnes in 1996 to 7204 million tonnes in 2021. India’s third National Communication to the UNFCCC reveals that forests were removing 20% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2019. Shifting of distribution ranges of many species would occur in future owing to the changing climate combined with land-use change. Significant changes in Himalayan forests with respect to their vegetation composition and distribution pattern at different altitudes were observed mainly due to changing climate. Ecosystem-based adaptation and nature-based solutions can enhance mitigation and adaptation benefits of forests towards climate change. Studies on climate change vulnerability, impacts, loss and damage, adaptation and long-term sustainability are priority areas for future research in forest sector. Inadequate financial and technical resources in the country are key barriers for conducting these studies and implementing suitable adaptation measures. A programme to reduce emission from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD) was initiated in 2005 by UNFCCC primarily to address the causes of deforestation. However, a comprehensive policy approach put forth by India led to the inclusion of conservation of forest carbon stocks and sustainable management of forests in the agenda of REDD and since then it was upgraded to REDD+. In India, National REDD+ Strategy, Forest Reference Level and Safeguards Information System are already in place to facilitate implementation of REDD+ activities. Forest sector in India is witnessing a number of domestic initiatives to address the climate change issues. Eight national missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change reflect India’s vision of sustainable development along with meeting its climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. The NDC target for forest sector of India is ‘to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030’. In India, a strong policy framework is already in place for the protection and conservation of forests. The objective of the National Forest Policy of 1988 is ‘to ensure ecological constancy and maintenance of ecological balance with an aim to bring one-third of geographical area of the country under forest and tree cover’. The Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980 was brought to check rampant diversion of forest lands for non-forest purposes and to regulate and control the land use changes in forests. With the implementation of this act, the rate of diversion of forest land for non-forest purposes has been radically reduced. The National Working Plan Code also attempts to include climate change and biodiversity conservation aspects through forest working plans in the country.
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High night temperature (HNT) stress disrupts key physiological processes like respiration, assimilate partitioning, and grain filling, challenging crop production. While the impact of HNT on grain growth and yield is known, the role of sink strength and starch biosynthesis in inferior or superior spikelets, as well as the effects of temporal variations on assimilate distribution, remain underexplored. We hypothesized that a tolerant genotype reallocates sugars to inferior spikelets under HNT stress by enhancing sink strength and starch biosynthesis, with the second half of the night playing a critical role in these processes. Two rice genotypes, Nagina 22 (HNT-tolerant) and Vandana (HNT-sensitive), were subjected to HNT (4 °C above the control) from flowering to physiological maturity. Assimilate movement and sink enzyme activity were investigated during peak grain-filling. Results revealed differential 14C partitioning to starch synthesis in spikelets, with superior spikelets maintaining higher synthesis rates under HNT. Under HNT, Vandana showed reduced sucrose synthase and ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase (AGPase) activities (up to 63 % in inferior spikelets), while Nagina 22 exhibited increased sucrose synthase (up to 2.7-fold) and AGPase (up to 31 %) activities in inferior spikelets. Under HNT, Vandana showed reduced starch and sugar levels, while Nagina 22 maintained or increased starch content and exhibited varied sugar responses. Overall, our results confirm that Nagina 22 reallocates sugars to inferior spikelets under HNT stress, driven by enhanced sink strength and starch biosynthesis in the second half of the night. This highlights a novel dimension for developing rice genotypes with improved resilience to HNT, ensuring stable yield under changing climate.
Chapter
Decarbonisation is known as low-GHG emissions development, and while it is unclear precisely what that entails in these circumstances, however, we can refer to the definition stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mentioned in its fifth report: Process by which countries or other entities try to achieve a down economy carbon emission, or by which people try to reduce their carbon consumption (IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, In Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.) IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 151.).
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Chinese forests, particularly the coniferous forest ecosystems represented by pines, play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, significantly contributing to mitigating climate change, regulating regional climates, and maintaining ecological balance. However, pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by the pine wood nematode (PWN), has become a major threat to forest carbon stocks in China. This study evaluates the impact of PWN invasion on forest carbon stocks in China using multi-source data and an optimized MaxEnt model, and the study analyzes this invasion’s spread trends and potential risk areas. The results show that the high-suitability area for PWN has expanded from 68,000 km2 in 2002 to 184,000 km2 in 2021, with the spread of PWN accelerating, especially under warm and humid climate conditions and due to human activities. China’s forest carbon stocks increased from 111.34 billion tons of carbon (tC) to 168.05 billion tC, but the carbon risk due to PWN invasion also increased from 87 million tC to 99 million tC, highlighting the ongoing threat to the carbon storage capacity. The study further reveals significant differences in tree species’ sensitivity to PWN, with highly sensitive species such as Masson’s pine and black pine mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal regions, while less sensitive species such as white pine and larch show stronger resistance in the northern and southwestern areas. This finding highlights the vulnerability of high-sensitivity tree species to PWN, especially in high-risk areas such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou, where urgent and effective control measures are needed to reduce carbon stock losses. To address this challenge, the study recommends strengthening monitoring in high-risk areas and proposes specific measures to improve forest management and policy interventions, including promoting cross-regional joint control, enhancing early warning systems, and utilizing biological control measures, while encouraging local governments and communities to actively participate. By strengthening collaboration and implementing control measures, the health and sustainable development of forest ecosystems can be ensured, safeguarding the forests’ important role in climate regulation and carbon sequestration and contributing to global climate change mitigation.
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Climate change and related events such as temperature increase over time and more frequent extreme weather events constitute a risk to the population and wellbeing. This study contributes to the knowledge on this subject by analyzing changes in mortality in Portugal using the most recent historical and future climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). A time-series distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the temperature-related mortality burdens in Portugal in the historical period (or reference, 1995–2014), the mid-century period (2046–2065), and the end of the century period (2081–2100) under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and extreme (SSP5-8.5) climate change scenarios. The findings show that winter periods of the contemporary climate (1995–2014) showed a significantly elevated risk of deaths from cold temperatures (RR = 2.23 (95% CI: 1.07, 4.64) at a minimum value of −3 °C), while at the maximum value (35.9 °C), the RR of 1.69 (95% CI: 1.01, 2.82) in the summer period indicated a moderate increase in risk. In terms of future projections, heat-related and extreme-heat-related mortality are higher under SSP5-8.5, while cold-related and extreme-cold-related mortality are generally higher under SSP2-4.5. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the future periods of 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 showed a small net change in heat-related mortality. However, there is projected to be an increase in heat-related mortality due to increased heat, ranging from 0.13% to 0.14%. The impact of extreme heat is expected to result in a mortality increase of 0.03% to 0.04%, while extreme cold is expected to decrease mortality by −0.10%. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the net change in mortality during the future period of 2046–2065 is estimated to decrease by −0.13%, with some uncertainty in the estimate. From 2081 to 2100, there is expected to be an estimated increase of 0.06% in mortality. The specific impact of increased heat shows an increase in heat-related mortality ranging from 0.15% to 0.17%, while extreme heat has an estimated increase of 0.04% to 0.05%. The developed framework provides a comprehensive assessment of excess mortality attributed to varying non-optimum temperatures for designing public health policies in Portugal.
Article
This study examines how a combination of prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) and absolute environmental sustainability assessment (AESA) can support shaping environmental strategies in the building sector. The paper highlights the benefits of pLCA as a forward-looking approach that integrates technological and socio-economic scenario projections. Through a case study of the Danish building sector, it investigates the potential of technological advancements to meet absolute sustainability targets and explores mitigation strategies to bridge the gap between current impacts and absolute targets. The study covers 16 environmental impact categories. The study identifies which building materials have the strongest potential to mitigate climate impacts and reveals risks of burden shifts towards other impact categories. By modelling future construction in Denmark (2025–2050), the study finds a significant divergence from current consumption patterns and exceedance of the planetary boundaries suggesting that technological advancements cannot alone take construction in Denmark towards sustainable practices. The study therefore suggests a shift towards biobased materials and reduced construction activity as viable mitigation strategies. The study highlights a trade-off between climate change and land use when conventional building materials (concrete, steel etc.) are replaced by biobased materials. More over, the study shows that anticipated changes in the background system rely on solutions that will increase some environmental impacts e.g. land use and resource use of metals and minerals. Overall, the findings underline the importance of adjusting current LCA methods to ensure relevant assessments that can support decision making for achieving rapid climate mitigation as expressed by the IPCC and ensure that burdens are not shifted unintentionally.
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Key message Enhanced antioxidant enzymes activity, particularly superoxide dismutase and catalase, along with autophagy process in reproductive organs, can improve the resilience of rapeseed to heat stress, thereby securing crop yield in the face of global warming. Abstract Climate change and global warming have increasingly influenced yield and quality of rapeseed (Brassica napus) almost all across the world. The response of reproductive organs to high-temperature stress was studied in two rapeseed varieties, SAFI5 and DH13 with contrasting levels of heat stress tolerance. Pollen germination, viability, and seed set showed a significant reduction in the heat-sensitive variety (DH13). Superoxide quantification revealed higher accumulation in heat-sensitive variety, leading to decreased seed formation and floret fertility most probably due to declined pollen viability and stigma receptivity. Further microscopic analysis of the anther and pistil demonstrated a significant overlay between the damaged areas and the location of O2⁻ accumulation. The sensitive variety showed higher O2⁻ accumulation and a wider damage area than the tolerant one, suggesting that superoxide could incapacitate anther and pistil due to structural injury. Moreover, the activity levels and expression of superoxide dismutase and catalase antioxidant enzymes were significantly higher in the anther and pistil of the tolerant variety. Histochemical analysis also indicated markedly higher autophagosome formation in tolerant variety’s anther and pistil. Consistently, the expression levels of autophagy and ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS)-related genes including BnATG8d, BnEXO70B, BnATl1 4A, and BnNBR1, as well as ubiquitin-activating enzyme E1, were higher in both reproductive organs of the tolerant variety. Interestingly, the areas of autophagosome formation overlapped with the areas in which higher superoxide accumulation and structural changes happened, suggesting a specific role of autophagy in oxidative stress response.
Article
Climate change has resulted in an increase in heat exposure globally. There is strong evidence that this increased heat stress is associated with poor maternal and fetal outcomes, especially in vulnerable populations. However, there remains poor understanding of the biological pathways and mechanisms involved in the impact of heat in pregnancy. This observational cohort study of 764 pregnant participants based in sub-Saharan Africa, a geographical region at risk of extreme heat events, aims to evaluate the physiological and biochemical changes that occur in pregnancy due to heat stress. The key objectives of the study are to 1) map exposure to heat stress in the cohort and understand what environmental, social and community factors increase the risk of extreme heat exposure; 2) assess the impact of heat stress on maternal health, e.g. heat strain, subjective psychological well-being, sleep and activity level; 3) evaluate how heat stress impacts placenta structure and function; 4) determine how chronic heat exposure impacts birth outcomes; and 5) explore the epigenetic changes in the placenta and infant by heat stress exposure per trimester. Pregnant women will be recruited from two distinct regions in The Gambia to exploit the naturally occurring heat gradient across the country. Microclimate mapping of the area of recruitment will give detailed exposure measurements. Participants will be asked to wear a watch-style device at 28- and 35-weeks gestational age to evaluate maternal heart rate, activity and sleep. At the end of the week, an ultrasound scan will be performed to evaluate fetal size and placental blood flow. At delivery, birth outcomes will be recorded and maternal, placental and cord samples taken for epigenetic, biochemical and histological evaluation. Evaluation of neuro-behaviour and final infant samples will be taken at 1 month following birth.
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Warm-water coral reefs are facing unprecedented human-driven threats to their continued existence as biodiverse functional ecosystems upon which hundreds of millions of people rely. These impacts may drive coral ecosystems past critical thresholds, beyond which the system reorganises, often abruptly and potentially irreversibly; this is what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022) define as a tipping point. Determining tipping point thresholds for coral reef ecosystems requires a robust assessment of multiple stressors and their interactive effects. In this perspective piece, we draw upon the recent global tipping point revision initiative (Lenton et al., 2023a) and a literature search to identify and summarise the diverse range of interacting stressors that need to be considered for determining tipping point thresholds for warm-water coral reef ecosystems. Considering observed and projected stressor impacts, we endorse the global tipping point revision's conclusion of a global mean surface temperature (relative to pre-industrial) tipping point threshold of 1.2 °C (range 1–1.5 °C) and the long-term impacts of atmospheric CO2 concentrations above 350 ppm, while acknowledging that comprehensive assessment of stressors, including ocean warming response dynamics, overshoot, and cascading impacts, have yet to be sufficiently realised. These tipping point thresholds have already been exceeded, and therefore these systems are in an overshoot state and are reliant on policy actions to bring stressor levels back within tipping point limits. A fuller assessment of interacting stressors is likely to further lower the tipping point thresholds in most cases. Uncertainties around tipping points for such crucially important ecosystems underline the imperative of robust assessment and, in the case of knowledge gaps, employing a precautionary principle favouring lower-range tipping point values.
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Climate change has been part of the natural cycle of our planet. However, the high growth in greenhouse gases since the beginning of the twentieth century has contributed to an increase of climate change. This phenomenon is a real threat to the land and marine areas, their landscapes, biodiversity, and natural resources. The impacts of climate change are extremely varied. Most developing countries sufferer from great challenges because of the climate extremes, especially countries that have a dense population, limited resources, and dependence on nonrenewable energy sources. Coastal areas are considered one of the environmental systems that are particularly exposed to current and projected risks connected to climate change. This chapter introduces the impacts of climate change on coastal zones and marine ecosystems, including coastal erosion, sea-level rise, sea-surface temperature, ocean color, and acidification. Low-lying areas (deltas) are among the most impacted coastal areas owing to climate change. One of the most serious threats posed by climate change in these areas is sea-level rise and coastal changes (case study). The role of satellite data in climate-change assessment, policy implications, and challenges are addressed.
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Climate change significantly affects viticulture, with noticeable impacts on yield and quality. The increase in average temperatures, often coupled with decreased precipitation, accelerates the phenological development of grapevines, leading to rapid sugar accumulation and concentration and decreased acidity. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of black shading nets with two levels (26% and 40%) on vine phenology, vegetative growth, yield, and grape ripening, as a potential strategy to mitigate the adverse effects of rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The research was conducted in southwestern Sicily, in the Menfi (AG) area, using Grillo and Syrah grapevines. Black shading nets were applied during the pea-sized berry stage (BBCH 75). The results demonstrated that shading effectively delayed vine phenology and altered grape ripening, with significant reductions in sugar content (up to 10%) and increases in total acidity (up to 10%) at harvest compared to non-shaded vines. However, shading also reduced berry size, resulting in lower cluster weight and yield per plant (up to 15%). These findings highlight the potential of shading nets as a tool for adapting viticulture to climate change, while emphasizing the need to carefully assess their large-scale applicability, considering economic and operational factors.
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This chapter reflects on the overarching contributions of the Agreement Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction to inter- and intra-generational equity, environmental sustainability, and transformation. The chapter explains the areas of the Agreement that will require further development during its implementation in terms of incomplete theorization. The chapter will reflect on how the BBNJ Agreement can contribute to enhanced international cooperation to ultimately support the protection of everyone’s human right to a healthy environment.
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Social work is a practice-based profession that aims to improve marginalised and vulnerable population groups. To empower marginalised communities, social workers follow various methods and approaches. Policy practice or social work advocacy is one such method in which professionally trained social workers engage in advocacy and policy change. The literature in this chapter includes a discussion on social work and climate justice, climate change and sustainability, advocacy related to various marginalised and vulnerable groups, human rights advocacy and the social inclusion of downtrodden populations.
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Climate change and global warming have increasingly influenced yield and quality of rapeseed ( Brassica napus ) almost all across the world. The response of reproductive organs to high-temperature stress was studied in two rapeseed varieties, SAFI5 and DH13 with contrasting levels of heat stress tolerance. Pollen germination, viability, and seed set showed a significant reduction in the heat-sensitive variety (DH13). Superoxide quantification revealed higher accumulation in heat-sensitive variety, leading to decreased seed formation and floret fertility most probably due to declined pollen viability and stigma receptivity. Further microscopic analysis of the anther and pistil demonstrated a significant overlay between the damaged areas and the location of O 2 ⁻ accumulation. The sensitive variety showed higher O 2 -accumulation and a wider damage area than the tolerant one, suggesting that superoxide could incapacitate anther and pistil due to structural injury. Moreover, the activity levels and expression of superoxide dismutase and catalase antioxidant enzymes were significantly higher in the anther and pistil of the tolerant variety. Histochemical analysis also indicated markedly higher autophagosome formation in tolerant variety’s anther and pistil. Consistently, the expression levels of autophagy and ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS)-related genes including BnATG8d , BnEXO70B , BnATl1 4A , and BnNBR1 , as well as ubiquitin-activating enzyme E1 , were higher in both reproductive organs of the tolerant variety. Interestingly, the areas of autophagosome formation overlapped with the areas in which higher superoxide accumulation and structural changes happened, suggesting a specific role of autophagy in oxidative stress response.
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Kannada films on OTT platforms are playing an increasingly vital role in raising awareness about climate change and sustainability. OTT services provide the flexibility and reach that allows filmmakers to create and distribute content addressing environmental issues, which were once limited by traditional cinema distribution channels. Kannada filmmakers are using these platforms to present narratives around ecological concerns such as deforestation, pollution, and the environmental impact of human activities. The accessibility of OTT platforms enables filmmakers to engage both urban and rural audiences in Karnataka, helping them tell stories that reflect local environmental challenges. By using relatable settings and characters, these films resonate deeply with viewers, illustrating the real-world consequences of climate change. Films like Kantara have incorporated elements of environmental activism, drawing from folklore and local culture to emphasize the need to preserve nature, thereby making these issues more relatable and engaging for a wider audience. This storytelling approach not only entertains but also raises consciousness about the delicate balance between human activity and sustainability. In addition to feature films, Kannada filmmakers have utilized OTT platforms to create documentaries and independent films focused on specific environmental concerns in Karnataka, such as the degradation of the Western Ghats and water scarcity. These works serve as educational tools, raising awareness about the local impact of global environmental crises while offering solutions or promoting sustainable practices. This use of documentaries and indie films extends the reach of environmental activism beyond traditional media, making these messages more accessible. Moreover, the growing demand for regional content on OTT platforms has led to a rise in collaborations between filmmakers and activists. This fusion of art and activism allows filmmakers to reach broader audiences and adapt global climate change concerns to local contexts, increasing the relevance and urgency of the conversation. In conclusion, Kannada films on OTT platforms have made significant contributions to raising awareness about climate change and sustainability. Through compelling narratives, educational documentaries, and activist collaborations, these films have sparked meaningful conversations about environmental issues, inspiring awareness and action among diverse audiences.
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Forests are important in mitigating climate change and addressing biodiversity loss. In Poland, where forest cover has steadily increased since World War II, afforestation of agricultural land has emerged as a key strategy supported by both EU and national policies. This study evaluates the implementation of Poland’s afforestation programs under the Rural Development Programme (RDP) for the periods of 2007–2013 and 2014–2020 using data provided by the Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA) and focusing on the financial incentives offered to private landowners and regional variations in their uptake. Results show that afforestation under the RDP aligned with the EU climate neutrality goals, with a total of 37,721 hectares afforested and PLN 243.5 million handed as financial support, predominantly (81%) over the first studied period. The largest afforestation efforts were observed in the Mazowieckie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie voivodeships, with Warszawa, Poland’s capital, achieving the highest municipal afforestation area across both periods. Financial considerations influenced farmer participation, but rising land prices and historical land use patterns were contributing factors. Urban afforestation and increasing demand for woody biomass further highlight the benefits of afforestation. However, conifer-dominated stands, prevalent on low-quality land, can present challenges to ecosystem stability under future climate scenarios, necessitating diversification towards deciduous species. Additionally, low uptake during the 2014–2020 period showcases the need for improved incentives to bolster participation. Still, afforestation presents significant economic and environmental opportunities, advancing long-term policy objectives while addressing critical challenges in climate.
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Flooding and other natural disasters threaten human life and property worldwide. They can cause significant damage to infrastructure and disrupt economies. Tamil Nadu coast is severely prone to flooding due to land use and climate changes. This research applies geospatial tools and machine learning to improve flood susceptibility mapping across the Tamil Nadu coast in India, using projections of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes under current and future climate change scenarios. To identify flooded areas, the study utilised Google Earth Engine (GEE), Sentinel-1 data, and 12 geospatial datasets from multiple sources. A random forest algorithm was used for LULC change and flood susceptibility mapping. The LULC data are classified for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, and from the classified data, the LULC for years 2030, 2040, and 2050 are projected for the study. Four future climate scenarios (SSP 126, 245, 370, and 585) were used for the average annual precipitation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results showed that the random forest model performed better in classifying LULC and identifying flood-prone areas. From the results, it has been depicted that the risk of flooding will increase across all scenarios over the period of 2000–2100, with some decadal fluctuations. A significant outcome indicates that the percentage of the area transitioning to moderate and very high flood risk consistently rises across all future projections. This study presents a viable method for flood susceptibility mapping based on different climate change scenarios and yields estimates of flood risk, which can provide valuable insights for managing flood risks.
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One-step high-pressure and high-temperature direct aqueous mineral carbonation of tailings derived from mining of Platinum Group Metals in South Africa requires a fundamental understanding of the reactivity of the most dominant mineral phases, i.e. pyroxene and plagioclase (66 wt. % and 12 wt. % of the bulk rock respectively) that are typically found in these tailings. The silicate minerals pyroxene and plagioclase were sampled from a pyroxenite footwall mined with the ore-bearing UG2 and from the Merensky Reefs outcropping in the eastern limb of the Bushveld Complex. These pyroxene and plagioclase grains were concentrated by gravity separation from the orthopyroxenite bulk rock and batch-reacted in a sodium chloride (NaCl) brine saturated with pure carbon dioxide (CO2) gas-only or seeded with sodium bicarbonate (NaHCO3; as an additional CO2 source) for 13 days at 100 °C and 10 MPa. Pyroxene dissolved slightly but no weathering features were observed in plagioclase. Analyses of the filtrates obtained from the pyroxene sample in the absence of NaHCO3 showed an increased concentration of magnesium and calcium ions in the solution. However, they had also reached a cation saturation sealing. On the other hand, liquid samples from reactions where both CO2 gas and NaHCO3 were added to the solution exhibited a pronounced decrease in dissolved magnesium and calcium ions. XRD patterns of some of the post-reaction solids collected from the cation-depleted solution aliquots showed peaks of newly formed secondary magnesite and vermiculite. Moreover, the presence of magnesite was further confirmed by Raman shift analysis of the dried solid products. The formation of secondary magnesite was observed only in the experiments seeded with NaHCO3, specifically where the pre-reaction solid was pyroxene rich. Some of the resultant fluid chemistry was corroborated by the geochemical model that simulated the reaction parameters using the Geochemist Work Bench (GWB) software. Overall, the results indicate low pyroxene dissolution, which leads to limited carbonation. These findings suggest that the carbonation of PGM tailings may be constrained under the evaluated physicochemical conditions.
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This study uses presence data and bioclimatic variables to predict distribution areas of the Pinus brutia Ten., the pine species with the most significant natural distribution in Turkey. The modeling was performed using the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios based on the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model, both current and future distributions. In addition, change analysis was conducted to determine the changes that will occur over the years in the potential distribution areas of the species. In addition to bioclimatic variables, the model incorporated elevation, NDVI, human footprint, slope, and aspect as environmental layers. The model’s performance was evaluated to determine its effectiveness, and the values in the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were analyzed. A Jackknife test was conducted to assess the contribution of each variable included in the study to the model’s performance. The study found that, the SSP2-4.5 scenario shows a slight increase in suitable areas over time, with “not suitable > suitable” regions increasing from 8.91 to 9.11%, while the SSP5-8.5 scenario indicates a net gain of suitable areas by 1.07% despite a 1.94% increase in unsuitable areas from 2081 to 2100. Consequently, Red Pine might experience less competition and have better expansion opportunities.
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Global warming is expected to intensify carbon loss, as ecosystem respiration (RECO) rates increase exponentially with rising temperatures. However, a comprehensive analysis of the response of the apparent temperature sensitivity of RECO ( Q10) to rising temperature is lacking. This study leverages observational data from 254 sites from the FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux datasets to address this knowledge gap. We found a strong influence of non-temperature factors on the seasonality of RECO. The similar seasonality of this effect and temperature can lead to underestimating or overestimating Q10. In this study, Q10 was quantified using a temporal moving window and a linear-mixed effect model to account for the effects of non-temperature factors on RECO. Our results show that Q10 decreases from 1.55 ± 0.24 (mean ± one standard error) at 5 °C to 1.35 ± 0.18 at 25 °C over all sites. The mean slope of Q10 to temperature across all sites is about −0.02 °C⁻¹. In this study, we found lower values of Q10 and a lower decreasing rate of Q10 with rising temperature compared to previous studies. Our study suggests that Q10 might be systematically overestimated due to the confounding effect of non-temperature factors, potentially leading to overestimated simulation of RECO rate. Our study also emphasizes the necessity of developing a process-based model, rather than simply incorporating the influences of non-temperature factors into Q10.
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Recent work demonstrated that 50:50 sand-recycled polycarbonate (rPC) composites have an average compressive strength of 71 MPa, which dramatically exceeds the average offered by commercial concrete (23.3–30.2 MPa). Due to the promising technical viability of replacing carbon-intensive concrete with recycled sand plastic composites, this study analyzes the cradle-to-gate environmental impacts with a life cycle assessment (LCA). Sand-to-plastic composites (50:50) in different sample sizes were fabricated and the electricity consumption monitored. Cumulative energy demand and IPCC global warming potential 100a were evaluated to quantify energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission associated with sand–plastic brick and two types of concrete, spanning the life cycle from raw material extraction to use phase. The results showed that at small sizes using Ontario grid electricity, the composites were more carbon-intensive than concrete, but as samples increased to standard brick–scale rPC composite bricks, they demonstrated significantly lower environmental impact, emitting 96% less CO2/cm3 than sand–virgin PC (vPC) composite, 45% less than ordinary concrete, and 54% less than frost-resistant concrete. Energy sourcing has a significant influence on emissions. Sand–rPC composite achieves a 67–98% lower carbon footprint compared to sand–vPC composite and a 3–98% reduction compared to both types of concrete. Recycling global polycarbonate production for use in sand–rPC composites, though small compared to the total market, could annually displace approximately 26 Mt of concrete, saving 4.5–5.4 Mt of CO2 emissions. The results showed that the twin problems of carbon emissions from concrete and poor plastic recycling could be partially solved with sand–rPC building material composites to replace concrete.
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In 2023, the world experienced its highest ever global mean surface temperature (GMST). Our study underscores the pivotal significance of El Niño and sea surface temperature (SST) warming as the fundamental causes. Interannually, the increment of GMST in 2023 comprised two phases: first, gradual ocean warming associated with El Niño and the North Atlantic from January to August; second, a continued rise in land temperatures in the mid‐to‐high latitude regions from September onwards, influenced by SST patterns. Notably, the maturation of El Niño prolonged warming in North America through excitation of the Pacific‐North American teleconnection. During the most recent 15 years, GMST has entered an accelerated warming period, primarily driven by rapid SST warming trends in the tropical Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, subtropical North Pacific, and North Atlantic. These decadal warming patterns, combined with El Niño, may further increase GMST, with 2023 as a particularly striking example.
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The Anthropocene is characterized by multiple crises associated with the infinite accumulation of growth on a planet of finite resources. Productive labour and the 8-h working model contribute to this contradiction. We argue for the reduction of productive labour in favour of reproductive labour accumulated through practices of collective care. The latter can heal the damage capital accumulation produces. Collective care brings into light various social practices often invisible to production, allows for a new understanding of nonhuman agency, and challenges the dominant ethical disposition around work. We advocate for a new power equilibrium between productive and reproductive labour.
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As the population, economy and urban built environment in the Gauteng City-Region (GCR) expand, government is increasingly under pressure to provide urban infrastructure to support growth. It is increasingly important that this infrastructure is sustainable, minimising the negative environmental impacts often associated with traditional forms of urban development. Green Infrastructure (GI) is the interconnected set of natural and man-made ecological systems, green spaces and other landscape features that provide services and strategic functions in the same way as traditional infrastructure. In harnessing the benefits of ecosystem services, GI has emerged as a more efficient, cost effective and sustainable alternative – and sometimes accompanying approach – to conventional forms of infrastructure. Despite international evidence demonstrating how GI can be used as an alternative to, or in tandem with, traditional infrastructure, the GI approach has so far gained only limited traction in the GCR. In 2013 the GCRO published the State of Green Infrastructure in the GCR report. The report established the principles that underpin GI, used available data to map the extent of GI networks in the region, assessed to what extent municipalities were aware of and applying a GI approach, and demonstrated a possible way to value GI in local government financial systems. The conclusions of the State of Green Infrastructure report were used to guide the next phase of GCRO’s research in support of the adoption of GI approach – a phase focused on better understanding the opportunities for implementing GI in planning and infrastructure development programmes and on addressing some of the challenges associated with shifts towards this approach. A framework for a green infrastructure planning approach in the Gauteng City-Region, GCRO’s fourth Research Report, builds on the foundations laid in the State of Green Infrastructure report. It assembles expert inputs and reflections from collaborative stakeholder discussions in what was known as the Green Infrastructure CityLab to illustrate important considerations for the development of a GI planning approach in the Gauteng City-Region (GCR). The report is divided into three broad sections. Part A introduces the theoretical underpinnings of a GI approach and builds an argument for the importance of incorporating GI into planning and infrastructure development in the GCR. Part B presents three pieces written by external experts. They consider how GI and ecosystem services can be valued by municipalities, and how so-called ‘grey-green’ infrastructure design solutions can be implemented in the GCR. Part C reflects on the stakeholder engagement process that has been undertaken, primarily through the GI CityLab, to deepen understanding of how GI can be embedded in municipal practice. Based on these research findings, this report concludes with a strategy for GCRO’s next phase of work in its ongoing Green Assets and Infrastructure Project. A third Research Report on GI is expected in early 2017. This will present a set of detailed investigative studies that further build the case for incorporating GI into municipal planning and infrastructure investment in the GCR.
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Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pathways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to (1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses.
Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre
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Defining transformative climate science to address high-end climate change
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