Available via license: CC BY-NC-ND
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Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
DOI: 10.2478/jengeo-2018-0011
ISSN 2060-467X
THE FEASIBILITY OF COOPERATION TO COMPLY WITH LAND USE CHANGE OBLIGATIONS IN
THE MAROSSZÖG AREA OF SOUTH HUNGARY
Gábor Ungvári1*, Zsolt Jolánkai2, András Kis1, Zsolt Kozma2
1Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research, Water Economics Unit, Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8, H-1093
Budapest, Hungary
2Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rakpart 3,
H-1111 Budapest, Hungary
*Corresponding author, e-mail: gabor.ungvari@uni-corvinus.hu
Research article, received 18 September 2018, accepted 31 October 2018
Abstract
In many years excess water inundations generate a major obstacle to farming in the lowland part of Hungary, including the Marosszög
area. Diverting water to large distances requires an infrastructure that is costly to develop and maintain. Alternatively, low-lying local
land segments could be withdrawn from cultivation and utilized to collect the surplus water. The Ecological Focus Area (EFA)
requirement of the EU points to the same direction: it requires that 5% of arable land is converted to other, ecologically more beneficial
uses. During the research project it was tested if it is feasible to apply a novel economic policy instrument, an auction to trade land use
change obligations, to achieve the EFA requirement in a cost effective way through the cooperation of farmers, while also creating a
practical solution to manage the seasonal surplus water cover on land. The research was carried out in an interdisciplinary way: a
dynamically coupled fully integrated hydrological model, including surface and subsurface modules, was applied by engineers to better
understand the interconnections of land use, local hydrology and the role of the water diversion infrastructure; while a pilot auction
exercise was conducted by economists with the participation of farmers to understand if cost reductions can be achieved through
cooperation, as opposed to individual fulfilment of EFA obligations. The analysis also revealed which segments of the water diversion
network are economic to maintain. It was confirmed that it is possible to improve local water management and satisfy the EFA
requirements at a reduced cost if appropriate economic incentives are applied to trigger the cooperation of farmers.
Keywords: Inland excess water, land use adaptation, agriculture, economic instruments, water management infrastructure, auction
INTRODUCTION
Seasonal water surpluses appear in the Tisza valley not
only as floods, but also as temporal water coverage and
water logging in low lying areas that are otherwise
protected from floods (van Leuween et al., 2008). These
excess water occurrences are slow but complex
hydrological extremities, which affect surface and
subsurface soil conditions (Szatmári and van Leuween,
2013). They frequently occur due to meteorological,
morphological, land cover, pedological and
hydrogeological characteristics (Pásztor et al., 2015) as
well as a result of anthropogenic factors (Farkas et al.,
2009; Benyhe and Kiss, 2012).
To mitigate the unfavourable agricultural and
infrastructural effects of excess water, an extensive
defense system of hydraulic structures - mostly pumps
and weirs -, and a 42,400 km long channel network is
maintained in the lowland parts of Hungary (Kozma and
Koncsos, 2011). The benefits provided by water diversion
are not commensurate with the otherwise rather elusive
maintenance and defense costs (Pinke et al., 2018). There
are several explanations for this. After 1990 land
ownership and land use changed, earlier large farms that
had consisted of thousands of hectares of intensively
cultivated mono-culture, were replaced by medium and
small sized farms, frequently with a size of only a few
dozen hectares, lowering the efficiency of agricultural
activities. The price signals provided by commodity, e.g.
grain, markets replaced the earlier centrally set prices,
introducing revenue risk to farmers. Central budget
resources provided for network maintenance have been
gradually lowered, reflecting fiscal difficulties as well as
a shift in priorities. A shrinking resource base alone may
not necessarily be problematic, fragmented land
ownership, on the other hand, requires large scale
cooperation, which only worked in some exceptional
places, typically with the involvement of the local water
management associations.
While the state slowly withdraws its resources from
the field (VTOSZ, 2011), half-heartedly it continues to
contribute to the maintenance of the water management
system (OVF, 2016, chapter 5.5.2), thereby maintaining a
false image that excess water drainage for agriculture is a
public task. Practical experience, however, suggests that
the systems cannot be maintained and operated on
previous high levels due to the shrinking financial
resources. In theory, there are two main types of solutions.
1) Farmers would have to contribute substantially to the
financing of the infrastructure. They are hesitant,
however, because they do not any more believe that high
quality services would be provided in exchange for their
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Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
payment. It is also uncertain if their increased payment
would be justified by improved productivity. 2) The
networks would need to be scaled back to a lower size that
is easier to maintain from currently available resources.
This also requires a parallel change in farming activities,
as parcel characteristics would change in locations where
the network is abandoned. Furthermore, the actual
network modifications need to be determined, but this
type of optimization requires information on the
adaptation possibilities of farmers, which is not readily
available to the managers of the water network.
The goal of the research was to test if the second
option (shrinking the network to ensure that it is in line with
reduced financial resources) can be pursued through
innovative policy solutions in a way that is efficient both
economically and from the perspective of altered land use.
The Ecological Focus Area (EFA) requirement of the EU
was picked as the driving force of change as it requires that
5% of arable land is converted to other, ecologically more
beneficial uses (Viaggi and Vollaro, 2012). Farmers were
involved in a pilot exercise in which they participated in a
hypothetical market where they were allowed to trade the
EFA obligation with each other. In other words, Farmer A
could pay Farmer B so that the latter fulfils the EFA
obligation of Farmer A by converting his own land. As a
result, transformed land would not need to be served by the
water management infrastructure any more, while it was
expected that compliance with EFA would become
cheaper. In addition, it was important to understand exactly
which land parcels would be transformed away from
intensive agriculture, to see if this shift is in harmony with
local hydrological conditions. To support information on
the latter, a hydrological modelling analysis was carried out
for the study area.
STUDY AREA
The pilot area of the study is in the Marosszög geographical
region in the South of Hungary, along the last stretch of the
Maros River before it reaches the Tisza River. The
geographic area under study (Fig. 1) is an approximately
120 km2 large watershed delineated by the Maros River on
the South, by the Sámson-Apátfalvy-Szárazér on the east,
an irrigation channel on the north and the Makói main
channel on the west. It belongs to the Great-Plain- and
within that to the Alsó-Tiszavidék geographic area. Makó
town also lies within the perimeters of the area. The terrain
is flat, the maximum altitude difference is less than 10
meters and ranges from 75 m to 85 m above Baltic Sea
Datum. However, the area has a slope towards west and
south, as the receiving water body is the Maros River on the
south-west of the area. The origin of the terrain is related
mainly to fluvial activity, but eolian originated loess
formation can also be found on the north-eastern part of the
area (Deák, 2012). The Maros River played the major role
in the formulation of the terrain in the Holocene, which has
been ceased by the river regulations of the early 20th
century. Old river-reaches and oxbows can be found on the
area, which are prone to collection of runoff.
The textural types of the top soil are mainly loam,
with a clay-loam intrusion from the north-west. This
pattern partially stands for the deeper layers as well;
Fig. 1 Modelled pilot area with altitudes and the modelled channel network
Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
39
however, in a large part of the eastern-middle part of the
area the particle size distribution of deeper layers (> 3
meters depth) is dominated by the relatively larger
fractions, as it is the alluvial deposition of the Maros
River, generally known as coarse sand (Deák, 2012;
Pásztor et al., 2015).
The area has a continental climate, with significant
seasonal variations and large temperature range. The
measured minimum temperature in the last century at
Szeged (OMSZ) was -29.1 °C, the maximum was 39.7 °C,
the coldest month is January, with an average temperature
of -1.3 °C, the hottest month is July with an average
temperature of 21.8 °C. The average yearly precipitation
is 532.2 mm, the wettest month is June with 67.4 mm and
the driest is January with 29.6 mm on average. The
number of sunshine hours ranges between 1700-2400 per
year. The average yearly actual evapotranspiration is 500-
550 mm (VITUKI, 1972).
At present 80-83% of the study area is in
agricultural use, of which 98% is used for intensive
agriculture (crops and vegetables), reaching a historical
peak after centuries of adaptation. The area is moderately,
but regularly (every 3-5 years) affected by excess water
inundation.
METHODS
The methodological concept
The research was designed as a participatory process with
the involvement of farmers from the pilot area in the
Marosszög. The local water management association
(Tisza-Marosszög Vízgazdálkodási Társulat, TIMAVGT,
www.timavgt.hu) ensured that farmers became aware of
the research project and they were willing to contribute to
it, thereby incorporating local knowledge and experience
into the analysis.
Decision on land use/crop choice is based on a
balance of productivity and the cost of maintaining
necessary conditions for the production. These decisions
are frequently distorted because the different subsidies
together with the compensation against the losses due to
external natural circumstances usually override the need
for adaptation to the natural local endowments of the land.
This is reasonable on the production level of individual
farmers, while such an economic frame may be
considered irrational by many who see the adverse effects
of such policies. This contradiction supports the outsiders’
view that there is no way to discuss common issues with
farmers in a truly rational way.
The aim of the research was to create a situation
where farmers’ land use adaptation / crop choice decisions
are inspected in a coherent economic frame in order to test
the hypothesis that as opposed to individual, farm level
optimization, the cooperation of farmers results in 1)
better overall financial outcome for them and 2) a land use
pattern that better suits local conditions.
This hypothesis was tested by creating a decision
sphere based on a perceived “threat” from a then
upcoming EU regulation. This policy process was the
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) regime to enter into
force in 2014, which originally envisioned a 7%
requirement for Ecological Focus Areas (EFA) as part of
Pillar I green payments. Later this number was lowered to
5%, and exemptions were also provided, but within the
research the 7% value was used.
From an agricultural production point of view, the
EFA regulation is a forced reduction of the production
intensity. Compared to the prior status quo, it generates an
unavoidable burden in the form of revenue reduction for
the farmers as they switch to lower revenue land use or
lower value crop (The research did not deal with the net
effect of the regulation including environmental gains that
could be positive). The EFA regulation was applied in the
research because it meant a credible future change for the
farmers, therefore the possible ways to mitigate its
negative effect proved to be a sensible “down to earth”
question to them, offering a suitable common ground for
discussions.
The economic approach was supported by
hydrological simulations carried out for the pilot area,
which served a better understanding of the magnitude,
coverage and dynamics of the unfavourably saturated
soils and surface inundations. In the absence of precise
and detailed monitoring data, the simulation results of the
inundations were verified by the field experience of
farmers. This discussion also proved useful to create a
common understanding and bonding between the
researchers and the farmers. In a later stage of the research
1) the economic information that was gained from the test
of the economic policy instrument and 2) the inundation
frequency and coverage information of the hydrological
simulation was combined to identify the financially
sustainable and unsustainable elements of the channel
system. Below the hydrological as well as the economic
methods are described in detail.
Applied instruments – Hydrological simulation
The goal of the hydrological simulation was to understand
the effect of the drainage channel network on
groundwater, soil moisture conditions and surface water
coverage frequency. The model calculations also helped
to relate the drainage network to land use and to compare
it with the judgement of farmers on which parcels are
most likely to be converted from agriculture to EFA in
case of external regulatory requirements. Various climate,
water governance and land use scenarios were also tested
to see the sensitivity of results.
The detailed spatio-temporal simulation of excess
water inundation poses a number of challenges. Small
relief, undrained sinks and the flow modification effect of
surface water coverage prohibit the usage of methods
purely based on flow hierarchy. Both surface runoff
calculations and instream flow routing are necessary, as
water movement can be neglected neither on terrain nor
in the complex drainage network. In case of excess water,
the subsurface processes are as important as the surface
accumulation (Kozma et al., 2014). Finally, the above-
mentioned processes occur simultaneously and influence
one another. Up to date, only fully coupled/integrated
hydrological models (Daniel et al., 2011; van Leeuwen et
al. 2016) are 1) appropriate to deal with such complex
hydrological phenomenon and 2) to analyse different
water governance scenarios.
40
Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
In this research the WateRisk Integrated Hydrologic
Model (WR IHM) was applied, which was developed
with the aim to study the hydrologic extremities (flood,
excess water, drought) dominant in the low land parts of
Hungary (Kozma and Koncsos, 2011; Jolánkai et al.,
2012). The WR IHM is a distributed parameter, fully
coupled hydrologic model. It simulates the major
processes of the local-regional hydrologic cycle in
parallel: precipitation processes (rainfall, interception,
snow accumulation), evapotranspiration, channel and
overland flow as well as unsaturated zone and shallow
groundwater movement. The physical basis of the
algorithm means that arbitrary climatic-land use-water
governance scenarios can be set up through the
adjustment of model elements (channel network, pumps,
weirs), boundary conditions (e.g. precipitation,
temperature time series) and model parameters (e.g. crop-
specific surface roughness, leaf area index and root zone
depth) (Kozma et al., 2012).
The simulations result in a temporal series of maps
for all modelled components (surface water coverage,
groundwater levels, stream and channel depth profiles,
etc.). Furthermore, the quantitative description of flow
and storage processes enables the application to calculate
comprehensive volumetric water budget. This covers all
surface and subsurface components and processes
involved in the model system (e.g. channel discharges,
pumped volumes, groundwater-channel interaction,
infiltrating fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface water
coverage). These features make the WateRisk application
a substantial support tool for decision-making.
For the current analysis the model has been set up
with a 50 by 50 meter grid (resulting in ~48000
computational cell), driven by the available digital terrain
model, also 50x50m resolution (FÖMI, 2012). The
channel network has been recreated in its whole extent,
including the secondary channels, but not including the
ditches along the agricultural plots. Approx. 125 km of
channel have been included in the model. Channel cross-
sections and longitudinal sections have been provided by
the local water authority (Lower-Tisza-District Water
Directorate - Alsó Tiszavidéki Vízügyi Igazgatóság -
http://www.ativizig.hu/), including weirs, and pumping
stations, with operation levels. As current roughness
values were not available (only consultations with local
water managers) a relatively rough Manning value of 0.05
have been used uniformly on the channel network for
current conditions. This has been supported by site visit
experience. The channel system drains the Szárazér
channel gravitationally, and at high flow conditions the
Makó pumping station lifts the collected excess water
from the channel into the Maros River. Land cover was
derived from the CORINE land cover maps (EEA, 2013).
Precipitation data were also given by the local water
authority for over 10 stations in the area for the 1998-2000
period. Precipitation, temperature and relative humidity
data for the 1991-2000 period for the Szeged station was
provided by the National Meteorological Service
(Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat https://
www.met.hu/en/idojaras/).
Due to the complexity of the described processes and
limited data availability, the formal full calibration of the
model is not viable. Instead some of the key hydrological
variables have been used to manually adjust the defining
model parameters. Such hydrological variables are the
measured groundwater levels and scattered and uncertain
field observations of water coverage patches.
The state of the groundwater table plays an
important role in the water cycle of the area. Water
coverage extent and durations for example show high
sensitivity to groundwater depth (Koncsos et al., 2011).
Therefore, it is important to set the model parameters well
in order to give proper groundwater table simulations.
There are only two groundwater monitoring wells located
in the economic auction pilot area, both being in Makó.
Thus a larger area has been included in the hydrological
model to include two more groundwater well time series
to the calibration process. We expressed the agreement of
measured and simulated groundwater level time series
with common model efficiency criteria (Moriasi et al.,
2007): the Pearson correlation coefficient (R2), the root
mean square error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model
efficiency (NSME).
Scenario development
In the second phase of the project, scenario development
was undertaken to generate a framework of the model
simulations and to create a basis for the interpretation of
the model results. We considered several alternatives for
the three main affecting factors: climate, water
governance scenarios and land use. Instead of setting up
all the possible combinations, based on expert judgement
we chose the 15 most relevant climate-water governance-
land use variants.
Climatic scenarios: The IPCC SRES A2 and B2
emission scenarios (IPCC, 2000) were selected to
examine the effects of possible climatic changes of the
next 100 years on the water budget of the pilot area. These
two scenarios have significantly different emission trends
regarding the main greenhouse gases, therefore they have
been selected to provide a range of possible changes,
given that the uncertainty of the predictions is high. In the
Marosszög pilot area the climate scenarios were
implemented as simple temperature, precipitation and
relative humidity time series for the 2070-2100 period.
These time series were developed by different regional
climate models, applied by the Prudence project
(Christensen, 2005). Three such climate model results
were examined and compared locally to the measured
time series of the control period. These were Hadley
Centre adeha, adehb, adehc data, the Sweden’s
Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s (SMHI)
results and the Danish Meteorological Institute’s (DMI)
data. Both annual precipitation and seasonal distribution
were compared. The comparison shows that there are
huge variations between the modelled climate data for
either annual sums, averages or seasonal distributions.
Based on this, we decided that two climate models will be
used for certain hydrologic simulations. Hadley Centre
adeha data was selected to drive the WR-IHM model for
all of the examined scenarios, and DMI was selected to
drive certain model scenarios in order to see the range of
effect that the driving data can cause on the model
outcome. All together six climate scenarios were set up,
Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
41
named as C1 – control period, C2 – IPCC A2, C3 – IPCC
B2, and their combinations with the HC adeha and DMI
model results.
Water governance scenarios: four Scenarios were
developed for water governance. The first (WG1) is taking
the assumption that the maintenance of the drainage system
(Fig. 1) will be on the same level as today. The second case
(WG2) assumes that there are no channels on the area,
which was developed to give a reference for the
effectiveness of the channel network. The third water
governance scenario (WG3) was developed in order to
simulate the effects of a water retention focused water
governance on the whole water budget of the pilot area. For
this a simple weir system was implemented on the drainage
network, without any sophisticated regulation mechanism.
This variant represents an extreme solution for 1) avoiding
groundwater drainage and 2) implementing channel
storage, even at the price that it would often cause flooding
in many areas. The last scenario (WG4) was an optimistic
case, assuming that there will be more funding for
maintenance of the channel network in the future. In this
scenario, an increased conveyance capacity of the channels
was modelled by setting the Manning roughness of the
channels to the typical value of well-maintained channels.
Land use scenarios: Three versions were developed
regarding the land use of the pilot area. The current land
use (LU1) where simplifications have been applied to the
CORINE database. 18 classes were set up all together,
agriculture being the largest coverage. Suburbs of Makó
town also cover a significant area, while natural
vegetation is small (wetlands). For future scenarios,
forests were inserted to the model in places where
significant water coverage durations were modelled.
Under LU2 scenario 7% of the area was changed from
agriculture to forest, while under LU3 scenario around
12% of the agricultural vegetation was changed to forest.
Applied instruments - Economic exercise
The economic policy instrument proposed for the
Marosszög area is a market to trade land use change
obligations, implemented through an auction (Weikard et.
al., 2012) that can promote the common fulfilment of the
EFA requirement by several farms together. It helps
farmers to select the actual pieces of land for conversion,
while also serving as a payment mechanism from
beneficiaries (farmers whose land continues to be used for
crop production) to those land owners whose land is
converted. Under the concept farmers bid a portion of
their land for land-use change, supplying a price tag for
compensation. The farmers whose bids are accepted
receive the equilibrium price from the auction for each
hectare. The compensation is paid from a fund to which
the owners of unconverted land have to contribute,
equally after each hectare.
Initially 32 farmer interviews were carried out in
order to gain an in-depth understanding of local issues and
perspectives on farming and ecology, and to distribute
initial information about the project. The discussion
resulted in a conciliated excess water inundation map of
the area that served as the basis of common understanding
of the issue. Then the concept was explained in detail,
followed by an auction, and finally sharing and discussing
results. All of the meetings were assisted by professional
facilitators to make sure farmers remained motivated
through the process and they understood the presented
concepts. On hypothetical examples it was illustrated that
cooperating with each other can lead to an overall lower
cost than if each farmer fulfilled the requirement on its
own. It was explained how a farmer with good quality
land and high yields can pay another farmer with low
quality land to fulfil the 7% obligation for the both of them
in a way that is beneficial for both parties. The farmers
understood this mechanism and afterwards the economic
instrument (the auction) was described.
During the exercise farmers bid a portion of their
land for land-use change, supplying a price tag for
compensation. The actual portion depends on the farmer.
Some farmers may offer all of their land, while others may
not bid at all, knowing that they would be paying someone
else to change their land use instead. Farmers may bid
different pieces of their land at different prices. Those
farmers that did not wish to participate in the bid, did not
have to, they would then carry out the required land use
conversion on their own land.
From the bids a supply curve is constructed showing
the marginal cost of land use change (Ungvári and Kis,
2013). This curve is used to determine the equilibrium
price of converting the required number of hectares. The
farmers whose bids are accepted would receive this
equilibrium price for each hectare. The compensation is
paid from a fund to which the owners of unconverted land
have to contribute, equally after each hectare.
The owners of unconverted arable land receive a
dual benefit: they pay a lower price to other farmers than
the opportunity cost of conversion (= lost profit) on their
own land, and the local water balance may also improve.
The owners of converted land receive revenue from other
farmers as part of the economic policy instrument, and
fetch some land use benefits (e.g. profit from grazing;
revenue from timber), possibly coupled with a payment
under the Common Agricultural Policy. Before the
auction, the farmers needed to be well informed about
these cash flows. The owners of converted land will not
any more generate revenue from intensive crop
production, but – since they submit lower than average
prices at the auction – this displaced revenue can be safely
assumed to be lower than the average for the Marosszög.
In other words, areas with low productivity are converted,
while areas of higher productivity remain intensively
cultivated.
22 farmers with total cultivated land of 1778
hectares participated in the exercise, a little less than 20%
of the case study area. 2 farmers, with 76 hectares, decided
that they would not engage in the cooperation, that is, they
would rather change land use on their own plots, as they
had some low quality land, and likewise, they would
refrain from offering the land use change service as part
of the auction exercise, even though they were aware of
the potential financial benefits. Their decision was likely
due to lack of trust in the smooth operation of the scheme
or limited understanding of the concept.
The results of the economic exercise contributed to
a simplified cost-benefit analysis in which the costs of
maintaining the channels were compared to the benefits
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Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
quantified as the profits generated by the agricultural
activity enabled by shifting the land-use change
obligation to other plots of land. Both the costs and
benefits were assessed as annual values.
RESULTS
Hydrological model calibration
Main tendencies of the measured groundwater levels have
been described reasonably well by the model, however
some of the extreme water levels were either under-, or
overestimated in different parts of the area. Table 1
highlights the model efficiency values of the three
considered monitoring wells for the 1998-2000 period
(note that in case of groundwater table simulations we
haven’t find any widely accepted guidelines for model
performance in the literature). The simulation provided
moderately good performance in the agricultural areas for
Földeák and Gencshát wells, while inadequate for Makó
well located in the settlement. In latter case, possible
ignored local effects (water withdrawal and concentrated
infiltration, impervious areas, etc.) can explain the bad
performance. Further information about the model set up
and calibration is found in Jolánkai (2013).
Table 1 Model efficiency measures of groundwater levels for
the calibration period 1998-2000
Model
efficiency
measure
Groundwater well
Gencshát
v209
Földeák
2322
Makó
2433
R2
0.74
0.93
0.32
RMSE
0.78
0.49
0.79
NSME
0.45
0.41
-1.30
Figure 2 shows the observed and simulated relative
changes of water level relative from the beginning of
1998. Groundwater level during the 1999 excess water
flood is underestimated by the model, while the next
year the simulated level follows reasonably well the
trends of measured water table changes at the Földeák
monitoring well.
There is no comprehensive satellite or aerial
photograph based water coverage data from the area,
therefore the justification of model results has been
carried out in an untraditional way. Within the frame of
the project, local stakeholder forums have been held to
discuss future landscape management options and to
assess the validity of economical tools to support future
decisions with regard to management options. During
these forums the local farmers were asked to evaluate the
simulated maximal water coverage map. The result
of this qualitative assessment is shown in Figure 3. The
general opinion of the farmers about the spots of water
coverage has been reaffirming. There have been spots
however, where the model showed water coverage that
was not confirmed by farmers. Also there have been areas,
where they could not give feedback, as they did not have
relevant knowledge. The farmers also indicated areas
where water coverage had been experienced, but the
model did not show any sign of water on the surface. The
overall conclusion is that the order of magnitude of the
water coverage is well estimated, while the fine spatial
distribution of ponds is not so well described. Given that
the soil structure of the area is rather inhomogeneous, this
is not so surprising.
Hydrological simulations
As Table 2 shows, water coverage extent varies on a
wide range if all the scenarios are treated together.
However, if the effects of climate change, land use
change and water governance change are being
examined separately, a different picture emerges.
Climate change has the strongest effect on the water
coverage. Compared to C1, the area of water coverage
in the affected areas drops to about 11 % of the total
area on average in scenarios C3. Scenario C2 shows an
enormous drop of water coverage (14.2 to less than 1%)
according to the HC model, which may seem
unrealistic. The DMI model shows a more than 50%
rate of change in average water coverage in scenario
C3, which is larger than the similar value for the HC
similar results. It is likely that the real change would be
between these values, given that the real climatic
conditions are between the two regional climate model
predictions with respect to the control period. The
Fig. 2 Calibration results for the Földeák groundwater well – relative change of the measured and simulated water table
Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
43
Fig. 3 Confirmed modelled maximal water coverage (1998-2000) by the local farmers in the Marosszög pilot area
Table 2 Water coverage durations (km2) and the proportion of the coverage of the whole area (%) according to the investigated
scenarios (HC: Hadley Centre adeha data, C1: control period, C2: IPCC A2, C3: IPCC B2, WG1: current water governance,
LU1: current land use)
Scenarios
Duration of coverage [days]
Total [km2]
Proportion of the
whole area [%]
0-7
7-14
14-21
21-28
28-60
60-365
HC-C1-WG1-LU1
14.6
1.7
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
17.0
14.2
HC-C2-WG1-LU1
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.8
HC-C3-WG1-LU1
13.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.2
11.0
HC-C1-WG1-LU3
15.0
1.6
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
17.0
14.2
HC-C1-WG1-LU2
14.7
1.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
16.9
14.1
HC-C2-WG1-LU2
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.8
HC-C3-WG1-LU2
13.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.2
11.0
HC-C1-WG3-LU1
15.0
1.8
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.5
17.9
15.0
HC-C1-WG2-LU1
25.6
2.4
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.0
28.9
24.2
HC-C1-WG4-LU1
14.5
1.7
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
16.8
14.1
HC-C2-WG4-LU1
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.8
HC-C3-WG4-LU1
12.9
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.0
10.9
DMI-C1-WG1-LU1
14.6
1.9
1.3
1.5
2.0
2.4
23.6
19.7
DMI-C3-WG1-LU2
8.9
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
9.9
8.3
DMI-C3-WG1-LU1
8.7
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
10.0
8.4
44
Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
number and duration of significant water coverage
appearance on the area drops drastically in both climate
scenarios (Fig. 4).
According to the model, land use change does not
have a significant effect on the water coverage, as the
change of water coverage in this LU scenario is only
around 0.1 percent. This can be due to the fact that
groundwater levels are generally deep under the surface
for all scenarios. Therefore, it is not the groundwater table
that is the primary reason for the occurrence of the excess
water, but rather the huge amount of precipitation (or the
fast snow melt) and the limited infiltration capacity of the
soils (e.g. frozen soils).
The effects of water governance improvement have a
similarly minor effect on water coverage durations. The
improved conveyance of the channels (scenario WG4) has
an effect of approximately 1 percentage point on the total
water coverage compared to water retention / channel
storage (WG3), while no effect compared to the baseline
(WG1). As expected, the no channel scenario (WG2) has a
significant effect on coverage: 70% increase of total area
covered, while the number of days of duration increased by
1, which can have huge implications on plant development.
Pilot auction exercise
As it was already explained, an auction driven land-use
change policy was the policy instrument that was tested
with the participation of farmers from the Marosszög area.
By the time the exercise took place, farmers were well
aware of the project, the hydrological modelling efforts as
well as the upcoming EFA requirements. During the
exercise two scenarios were assessed: 1) individual
compliance with the EFA requirement, i.e. all farmers
have to set aside 7% of their land for EFA purposes, and
discontinue traditional crop production on these parcels,
2) cooperation with each other through auction based
common compliance with the 7% requirement.
20 farmers with 1702 hectares of land participated in
the exercise. 7% of this area equals to 119 hectares, this is
the targeted volume of land use change. Farmers made
bids offering (some of) their land for land use change to
others at prices specified by them in EUR/hectare/year.
Some farmers differentiated their plots based on
productivity, and offered different bids for different
pieces of land. Altogether 55 bids were received. From the
bids a supply curve was constructed, showing the price at
which the cumulative quantity of land use change is
offered (Ungvári and Kis, 2013). The constructed supply
curve is monotonically increasing. The price at which 119
hectares of land conversion was offered happened to be
180 EUR/hectare/year. Thus, under the scheme, farmers
who agreed to change their land use on behalf of others,
would charge 180 EUR for each hectare per year as a
service to those farmers who did not want to execute the
land use change on their own parcels.
Because of the 7% criteria, every hectare of
converted land enables continued crop production on 13.3
hectares of land - the 7% target implies that out of 100
hectares, 7 hectares is converted while 93 hectares stays
in cultivation, thus the ratio of 93/7=13.3 results.
Therefore, those farmers that choose to pay others to
change land use instead of them, have to pay 13.5
EUR/year (180/13.3=13.5) for each hectare of their
cultivated land in exchange for this service. Farmers
thought that these results were reasonable.
Assuming that the offered bids were equal to the lost
profit of the corresponding land, it was estimated that if
each of the 20 farmers complied with the EFA requirement
on their own, the lost profit would have been about 32,200
EUR/year for the total cultivated area – this would have
been the cost of compliance. In case the farmers cooperate
with each other, the total cost declines to 20,100 EUR/year
– the 38% difference between the two solutions represents
the economic advantage of common compliance.
There are additional, unquantified changes in costs
and benefits that are partly the result of land conversion,
and partly driven by the auction, as the selected regulatory
instrument:
– The benefits of crop production are lost on the converted
land, but benefits for other uses may appear (e.g. timber
production). Since the quality of the converted plots is
below average, the profitability of crop production is
probably low; for some farmers cultivating these areas
may even create a loss that is balanced by the CAP
subisidies - the only reason for farming here. Thus, land
use change in itself may improve the financial positions
of farmers, if they continue to receive the CAP subsidies
while they do not any more suffer a loss on their sub-
prime land.
– The auction will enlarge these gains since it leads to the
conversion of the worst 7% of the total case study area,
while without this solution the worst 7% of each farm
Fig. 4 Water coverage time series for the Marosszög pilot action. Effects of climate change according to the HC model
Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
45
would be converted, therefore in the latter case the
average productivity of the converted land would be
higher.
– Once land is converted, the excess water diversion channels
that used to serve the converted areas can be terminated,
thereby saving some of the costs of their maintenance and
operation. Also, less water needs to be pumped in case of a wet
season when higher than normal precipitation coincides with
relatively low temperatures and limited evaporation. The
instrument, again, may make these gains more pronounced,
since land gets converted in a more concentrated pattern – i.e.
in a lower number of larger plots, rather than in a larger
number of small plots –, making it more likely that some of the
channels are not needed any more.
As far as distributional impacts are concerned, in
principle everyone is better off. The voluntary nature of
the policy instrument means that there are no adverse
outcomes for participants - they only participate with bids
that improve their position.
The state can also be better off, mainly due to
avoided excess water inundation related damages, which
under the current regulation are partially compensated by
the government. Most of the land that is converted under
the proposed scheme is subject to longer than average
periods of excess water cover, therefore damage
compensation following the land conversion can be
substantially lower than today. On the other hand, the
same locations may prove drought-resistant in dry years,
which offers an economic advantage, but the current study
does not address this issue.
Finally, it should be mentioned that organizing and
operating the auction policy also entails costs – so called
transaction costs – which should be kept low so that on
balance the economic gains are not erased by the cost of
implementation. Relatively low administrative
requirements and large size (many farmers and lots of
involved land) will help to keep transaction costs low.
A simplified cost benefit analysis
Costs and benefits were estimated and compared to
determine the economic balance of the scheme. Costs are
associated with channel maintenance while benefits are
associated with farming activities. For the analysis it was
assumed that excess water cover fully destroys the crops
(generally true, but not always). Based on the team’s
interaction with local farmers it was concluded that the
profitability of crop production falls between 170 and 600
EUR/hectare/year with a median value of 400
EUR/hectare/year. This is how much may be lost due to
too much surface water.
With the help of the TIMAVGT water management
association the researchers calculated the cost of
maintaining and operating the channels, separately for the
larger territorial networks and the local networks
consisting of narrower branches. During the calculations
the frequency distribution of the inundations were also
considered. The maintenance costs of the territorial
network channels were estimated at 30,000 EUR/year.
This network, however, serves both the farms and the city
of Makó, thus it makes sense to share the costs in some
proportion. If all EUR 30,000 is to be covered by the
farmers, then the benefits that they enjoy stay below this
cost level, and it would not be rational to continue to
maintain this network. However, if they are responsible to
pay only 10% of the costs (in proportion to the diverted
water that is of agricultural origin, while 90% originated
from the city of Makó) then a net balance of EUR 24,000
results annually. Therefore, under any reasonable cost
allocation between the farms and the (local) government,
it is worth maintaining the territorial channels, as the
benefits in most years substantially exceed the costs.
Table 3 The annual costs and benefits of maintaining the
excess water drainage networks in the model area (EUR/year
for the case study area, annualized)
Channel
type
Benefit
Cost
Balance
Avoided
inundation loss
in the
agriculture
Maintenance and
operating cost of
the channels
Territorial
networks
27,000
30,000 / 3,000
-3,000 /
24,000
Local
networks
11,000
18,000
-7,000
The local branches of the network generate net costs,
i.e. a loss on average. Behind this average, however, there
is notable deviation. There are plots with above average
quality of soil that allow for vegetable production, a
highly profitable activity. In these locations it generally
makes sense to retain the local channels, but otherwise,
most of the network is not worth maintaining. Therefore,
decisions on maintenance should be not uniform, but case
specific. Farmers are in the best position to decide if the
local network segments that they use are worth
maintaining at specific cost levels, or not. They will make
a rational decision if they face their true share of channel
maintenance and operation costs. The common
compliance with the 7% EFA target also helps to
determine the fate of local network segments, since the
parcels without valuable crop production are revealed,
and these areas do not need channels.
CONCLUSION
The proposed economic instrument, the auction for land
use change obligation, offers a clear and direct economic
advantage to the farmers with respect to complying with
the Ecological Focus Area (EFA) requirement of the
reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). By
cooperating with each other they can satisfy the CAP
requirements at a lower cost compared to individual
compliance. Once they start cooperating with each other
on land use related matters, discussions of traditional
agricultural practices that were abandoned during the
decades of large-scale, industrialized agriculture can also
take off. These discussions already started to emerge after
the auction exercise, when farmers realized that the pilot
scheme offers financial advantages and a more reasonable
land use for the local community.
The results of the hydrologic modelling show that
the concentration of the Ecological Focus Areas to the
most excess water prone stretches of the landscape would
46
Ungvári et al. 2018 / Journal of Environmental Geography 11 (3–4), 37–47.
not eliminate the inundation itself. The adaptation,
however, decreases agricultural damage substantially,
while reducing the drainage needs, therefore providing
additional economic and environmental benefits.
Drainage needs are also further reduced under climate
change scenarios. Furthermore, increased conveyance due
to improved maintenance of the channels does not reduce
water coverage significantly. These results, coupled with
the analysis of the auction outcome suggest that some of
the local branches of the water network are not worth
maintaining. The territorial network channels, on the
other hand, provide benefits in excess of their cost.
The stable concentration of EFAs in the low lying
areas means that EFAs end up in the sites with the highest
potential ecological value. It also prevents the annual
reallocation of EFAs that is allowed by the current
regulation, even though this could eliminate much of the
potential ecological benefits. The stable location of EFAs,
including wetlands, ensures an increased level of
ecosystem services in the form of pest control, pollination,
nutrient reduction etc.
The farmers endorsed the auction scheme quickly
and they were satisfied with the results of the experiment.
But most importantly the experimental auction process
produced a credible value for the conversion as a service
that they can supply to each other using their least
productive land segments. A discussion took place after
the presentation of the results. It showed that revealing a
price information through a mechanism that is
understandable and acceptable to farmers initiated a
constructive dialog about the local rationality of a more
sophisticated land and water management. Moreover, it
triggered the participants’ own calculations about the
possibilities they can create for themselves. This type of
thinking was not experienced earlier in this context.
During the discussion they raised, for example, the
question of trading between other districts for realizing
further gains/cost reductions.
The results also underline the importance of the EU
Water Framework Directive approach that calls for the re-
evaluation of the operation rationale of the water
infrastructure (water services) in place and the
identification of the stakeholder groups. Once water users,
in this case farmers, face the true cost of the services they
consume, they will be able to decide if the use of these
services, and thus the maintenance of the underlying
infrastructure, is indeed worth for them. These decisions
will also have an impact on land use, increasing the level
of ecosystem services beneficial for society.
Lastly, an important lesson from the exercise is that
entrepreneurs and enterprises are absolutely open to
market based solutions, even in areas where traditionally
command and control regulations are applied.
Acknowledgements
The research resulting in this article was financed by the
EPI Water project, under contract from the European
Commission Grant Agreement no. 265213 FP7
Environment (including Climate Change), and took place
during 2012 and 2013.
The authors would like to express their gratefulness
to Mr. Iván Balla of TIMAVGT, president of the local
water management association of the Marosszög at the
time the research was implemented, who supported the
activities through advice, information and the recruitment
of farmers to participate.
Special thanks go to the farmers themselves, without
the active involvement of whom it would have been
impossible to execute critical parts of the research.
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