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Пространственная трансформация урбанизированной среды в условиях постиндустриального развития общества

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In the early 20th century, the East German city of Leipzig seemed well on its way to become a metropolis of international importance. The city was expected to grow towards over one million inhabitants in 2000. Seventy years later, Leipzig’s population has shrunk to less than 500,000 inhabitants instead. The German partition after World War II took away most of its national administrative and economic functions and much of its hinterland. The socialist GDR regime worsened the long-term development perspectives and living circumstances of the city. The German reunification brought new development chances, but like most East German cities, Leipzig’s hopes soon became disappointed. The local politicians faced a difficult redevelopment task: apart from the question how to revive the local and regional economy, they also had to deal with a housing vacancy rate of 20%, a huge need for renovation in the older neighbourhoods as well as in the socialist high-rise areas, the negative effects of urban sprawl on the city core, and various environmental pollution problems. After briefly describing the development path of Leipzig until the 1990s, the paper will discuss the current attempts of the city government to give Leipzig a more positive post-industrial future. On the one hand, Leipzig is developing a strategy to ‘downsize’ the city’s built environment and infrastructure to adapt to a probably lastingly smaller population. On the other hand, many growth instruments well known from the international scientific and political debate are tried to put Leipzig back on the (inter)national map. The paper will discuss these development strategies in the light of the international debate on the question ‘how to fight the shrinking city’, with specific attention for post-socialist cities.
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Urban Decline and Shrinking Cities : a critical assessment of approaches to urban regression Urban shrinkage as such is not a new phenomenon. It has been documented by an extensive literature analysing the social and economic issues that have led to flight of population, resulting in the worse cases in the eventual abandonment of blocks of housing and neighbourhoods. À number of studies have also been dedicated to the analysis of the cycles of urban changes : suburbanization, decline of central cities and regeneration. Up to the 1970s, urban decline was an almost exclusive feature of developing countries, whereas today the number of cities in decline is reaching more than a quarter of the overall number of cities of over 100000 inhabitants worldwide. While the contemporary globalization processes have been accompanied by new forms of de-industrialization and suburbanization, the period has also been one of profound demographic change in the developed countries, characterized by falls in fertility rates and the ageing of populations. This transformation obviously has repercussions on the development of cities. In this situation, it may be that urban growth should in no way be assumed, while urban decline, rather than being an exception or an aberration, could be analysed as a potentially global phenomenon. It is therefore worthwhile envisaging decline and urban shrinkage as durable, structural components of urban development. While urban decline is on the increase, placing the phenomenon in an increasingly global perspective, it seems opportune to review the paradigm behind the established views of urban growth and change.
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Developed, modern cities throughout the world are facing population declines at an unprecedented scale. Over the last fifty years, 370 cities throughout the world with populations over 100,000 have shrunk by at least 10% (Oswalt and Rieniets 2007). Wide swaths of the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Japan are projecting double-digit declines in population in the coming decades. Internationally, scholars and practitioners of the built environment have responded to this crisis by reconceptualizing decline as shrinkage and have begun to explore creative and innovative ways for cities to successfully shrink (Stohr 2004; Swope 2006). Historically, planners have responded to population decline by instigating economic development strategies, but this conventional approach has failed in scores of places. This emerging new approach to rethinking decline provides a non-economic view of responding to depopulation.
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The beginning of the 21st century marks the first time in history that more than half of the world's population lives in urban areas. In Europe, more than 70% of the population lives in urban areas today. This number is likely to increase to 84% by 2050. However, a shift from growth to decline of urban population is already present for a growing number of cities. The paper examines urban population trends for 158 European agglomerations and assesses the dynamics behind one particular development of growth or decline. Using data from 1991 to 2004, we present statistical evidence of diversifying population trajectories for core cities and fringe areas. The quantitative results are contrasted with the widespread accepted cyclical urbanisation model that has been expounded as a theoretical approach to describe previous and future stages of European urban development. The structural approach of the model is discussed because we believe that such concepts do not reflect the dynamics of present urban development in Europe. The paper argues that the urban agglomerations studied do not show a single evolutionary stage of urban development. Rather, we found a coexistence of intensifying suburbanisation and developing reurbanisation, which is mainly driven by younger households. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.