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Scientific Foresight and Cognitive Modeling of Socio-Economic Systems
Abstract
The article suggests using the methodology of cognitive modeling of complex systems (social, economic, ecological, political, socio-technical) as a tool for foresight. The methodology of cognitive modeling is briefly presented. The methodology is a system of methods for developing cognitive models, researching their structural properties, stability, scenario analysis, foresight, etc. With the help of the software system of cognitive modeling, it is possible to model and analyze a large number of structures and variants of behavior of a complex system, much more than the experts can come up with on their own. An example of the application of the methodology and the corresponding program system CMLS for studying the problems of the quality of life of youth is given.
... Therefore, for cognitive modeling, the results obtained for the second plot are used. Cognitive modeling of complex systems (socio-economic, environmental, political, cyberphysical, etc.) and the foresight methodology of possible processes in them, which are used in this study, are developed in [1,[11][12][13]24]. Foundation of these works there are articles [2-5, 7, 8, 16-19, 27]. ...
... Cognitive modeling of complex systems is a modelling of the structure and behavior of a complex system based on quantitative and qualitative data about it and carried out in stages [11][12][13]24]. The main stages: 1) development of a cognitive model in one form or another of mathematical form (from a cognitive map to a vector parametric functional graph); 2) the study of the properties of the model, on the basis of which it is concluded that the properties of the model do not contradict the properties of the studied complex system; 3) scenario analysis carried out by impulse modeling on a cognitive model, which allows to determine the possible development of situations in the system under the influence of external, internal disturbances and control decisions on it. ...
... The developed methodology [11][12][13]24] and the software [1] of cognitive modeling are a tool for studying the properties of a complex system (stability, connectivity, complexity, etc.) and its behavior. Together with the foresight methodology [12], applied at the first and third stages of cognitive modeling, the results of the study serve to develop recommendations for improving a complex system, to propose desired strategies for developing the system and preventing those that are not desired. ...
It is proposed to use the imitative cognitive modelling to build scenarios for the urban underground development and the evaluating of the megapolises underground space. To analyze the favorableness of urban areas for underground construction the modified method of morphological analysis was selected, which proved to be quite effective in modeling problems whose objects can have a large number of alternative configurations by combining various parameter values. The obtained results are used as initial ones in cognitive modelling for constructing scenarios of evaluating and developing underground urban studies. The corresponding cognitive maps are developed, their structural analysis and stability analysis are carried out, which made it possible to judge the compliance of the cognitive model of reality. The modelling of scenarios for possible processes of the events development in the analyzed complex system is carried out under the influence of various internal and external disturbances and control impulse effects. The results of cognitive modelling scenarios are used to assess the suitability of the selected plot for underground construction.
... The hybrid approach for data collection and cognitive mapping combines nomothetic and ideographic techniques of the eliciting mental models and building cognitive maps [1]. The digitalization and the development of artificial intelligence open up wide prospects for cognitive modeling making it possible to analyze a large number of structures and options for the behavior of a complex system, much more than experts can process on their own, without the help of cognitive maps and computer programs [6]. ...
The fundamental methodological challenge of dealing with a complex system is the need for multidisciplinarity. The paper develops the approach to combine epistemologically different methods of cognitive maps, influence diagrams, fuzzy logic, Bayesian networks, using the capabilities of human-machine interaction and artificial intelligence in the process of strategic management of complexity. The study is designed to update the participative cognitive mapping to account for system dynamics that include both the human and machine procedures. For this purpose, the paper discusses the opportunities to integrate artificial intelligence and closely related big data analysis in the participative cognitive mapping algorithm. The proposed procedural framework based on the participative cognitive mapping with human-machine interaction for strategic decision-making in complex organizational systems extends capabilities of the strategic management procedure as a foundation for the development of programs and projects of change. It combines different methodologies such as hybrid and fuzzy cognitive maps, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams, it integrates procedures implemented by humans and computers in a sequential manner. For scientists, this multidisciplinary framework provides the way for doing active research through participation in management procedures, for practice managers to apply cognitive mapping for the strategy development and implementation.KeywordsMultidisciplinarityStrategyCognitive mapsBayesian networksInfluence diagramsDigitalization
... Thus, in the context of macroeconomic research, the foresight technology, first, includes the choice of target settings for the technological or socio-economic orientation of forecasts of economic systems; secondly, it is the basis for determining the future socio-economic development with the definition of a range of industries that can form the basis for strategic economic development; thirdly, it contains forecasting the development of new technologies and the entry of fundamentally new types of products into the market (Onder, 2017). Gorelova and Pankratova (2018) summarize the foresight of economic systems in their works. They use the methodology of cognitive modeling of complex systems (social, economic, ecological, political, and socio-technical) as a foresight tool. ...
Nowadays, it is imperative to use forecasting technologies that are most likely to predict the development of economic systems. Foresight technologies based on a combination of strategic analysis and forecasting of key indicators provide a high level of probability of achieving certain results and contribute to shaping conditions for their achievement. Among economic systems, tourism sector is the most vulnerable to the negative impact of the global pandemic. In 2020, its revenues fell by 70%, leading to an unprecedented crisis. Accordingly, questions arise about the Ukrainian tourism sector’s ability to use the crisis as a prerequisite for recovery and growth.Based on the results of a two-round survey using the Delphi method among experts (56 at the first stage and 42 at the second) representing various tourism directions for Ukraine’s tourism sector up to 2030, six strategic development priorities were formed. Key indicators were identified, such as contribution to GDP (7-8%), place in the global tourism competitiveness rating (60-70th position among 140 countries), and average annual growth rate of international arrivals (5-10%). It has been determined that in case of the end of the world pandemic, the Ukrainian tourism sector can achieve the indicators of “pre-crisis” functioning in 1-3 years.The proposed architectonics of the foresight platform in the context of digitalization of network communications will ensure the adoption of management decisions to develop Ukraine’s tourism sector in the domestic and international markets. It will strengthen its position, image, and strategic sustainability in the markets for tourist services. AcknowledgmentThe paper reflects the results of the authors in the framework of studies conducted in 2018–2020 at the Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics by order of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (Paradigmatic and Conceptual Shifts in the Economic Theory of the 21st Century) (Q1 2018 – Q4 2020; state registration number 0118U000126), and Formation of the National Brand of Ukraine in the International Environment (Q1 2018 – Q4 2020; state registration number 0118U000127)).
Civilizational challenges of global scale, growing uncertainty of cyclical processes of economic development, the emergence of new, to some extent ambiguous, but powerful factors of socio-economic transformation, caused a slowdown in the dynamics of the national system of tourism. Under the conditions of global crisis phenomena, which are now characteristic of Ukraine's economic development, including the consequences of these phenomena, without a preventive response to external imbalances, socio-economic development is complicated. Therefore, forecasting of investment attractiveness of tourism, its investment as a component of the national economy is the basis for determining the prospects for socio-economic development of regions and the country on certain time horizons, which allows modeling scenarios of development of sub-units and regions in a dynamic market environment, which de facto is poorly predictable. The purpose of the article is to define the essence of the foresight, to project this definition to the field of tourism, by clarifying the definition of "investment attractive foresight", as well as the characteristics of the foresight methodology. The main research methods used in writing the article are comparative, cognitive generalization. The tense dynamics of management practice constantly complicates the field of solving applied problems by the subjects of activity. Scientific thought does not have time to investigate the problems that arise in a highly unstable business environment. Due to the growing dynamism and uncertainty of the external environment, the desire for stable development in the long term is significantly increasing, which actualizes the study of the formation of methodological foundations of tourism foresight. The method of forecasting or predicting future trends is now more relevant than ever is relevant today as never before, especially in the tourism industry under conditions of pandemic and war. Anticipation of investment attractiveness of tourism has practical value, as its application in practice allows to form strategic goals and develop preventive measures to implement the developed strategy.
In the article authors propose a conceptual framework of complex economic system model for strategic management of the enterprise, including assessment of the concepts of problem situations and their classification, the concept of dynamic security; management functions, given their semantic integration; definition of frame representation of problem situation and alternative ways of its solution; development and implementation of a logical-linguistic model of problem situations in the form of discrete-situational network in the management system with the application of the expert system “Leader”); development of approaches to the building on the basis of adaptive methods of alternative network models (graphs) to resolve the problem situation associated with inflation; identification of planning methods, protection against risks and threats of elementary objects, implementing the reverse logical. It is essential to highlight that the main challenge of recognizing and identifying risks and threats to the economic security of the socio-economic system is the interpretation of the results of situational analysis of the data aggregated in order to identify and recognize risks and threats. Given cognitive models reveal the problem of inflation within vertically-integrated companies to the fullest extent. According to these models, digital twins of the subject and object are further developed.
KeywordsProblem situationsCognitive modelsFrameIntelligent dynamic systemsLogical and linguistic modelingCognitive linguisticsSocio-economic system
This paper deals with methodological problems of improving the effectiveness of anti-corruption management processes. To improve the efficiency of solving applied and practical problems of the organization of the combating corruption using the methodology of scenario analysis was proposed, which provides an opportunity to assess the quality of preparation and implementation of decisions in the management of the considered processes. The results of a scenario study of the developed basic multigraph models of anti-corruption management in the construction industry are presented.
In connection with the rapid development of robotics, the problems of interaction between humans and robots, considered as social interaction problems, are becoming more and more urgent. The problems of interaction of robots with people at the social level require versatile interdisciplinary research to identify and exclude their possible negative consequences. Practical information about such consequences in different areas of robot use may be considered insufficient. In this paper, it is proposed to use an approach to research based on simulation modeling to obtain additional information about the object, which is defined as the “Social Robotic System” (SRS). It is proposed to apply the methodology of cognitive simulation of complex systems as a methodology that uses the capabilities of cognitive processes in subjects in their interaction with objects. The toolkit for cognitive modeling of complex systems is also proposed to use for the development and substantiation of management decisions in the field of interaction between robots and humans. Two formulations of the problem for social robotic systems are considered. The models of these systems are in the form of cognitive maps. The results of the study of the SRS structural properties and stability properties on its cognitive maps are presented. The final stage of cognitive modeling is the development of scenarios for the possible development of situations in the system with internal and external environmental changes. All this research makes it possible to conclude the consistency of the models with possible real situations of human-robot interaction and to justify the necessary management decisions.
The aim of the article is to present some features of cognitive simulation of complex systems, which are proposed to use at the stage of pre-design studies of robot groups (communities) interaction. The structure of interacting robot communities with a leader can be represented in a hierarchical cognitive map. To develop such a map, it is necessary to use theoretical knowledge, expert and domain statistical data. Minimal theoretical information of complex systems cognitive modeling is presented. It is necessary to explain the possibility of cognitive modeling using in the context of robot groups interaction. An example which illustrates the development of a hierarchical cognitive map of three robot groups interaction is given in this paper. A study of the structural properties of the model was made. Its structural stability and resistance to disturbances have made it possible to conclude that the model does not contradict possible real situations. Scenario modeling results of situations development for various internal and external environment variations are presented on the model. The possibility of adjusting the structure of a cognitive model to provide the desirable qualities of situations development processes on the model is also shown.
A simple mathematical model of the combustion-to-explosion transition is constructed. This model is based on solving mathematical problems of the hydrodynamic flame stability, which are reduced to solving eigenvalue problems for linearized differential equations of gas dynamics. The influence of viscosity and compressibility on the development of perturbations is analyzed. The turbulence scale (the average size of the flame cells) in the case of instability of the laminar combustion process is estimated. The possibilities of the transition of slow combustion to both a deflagration explosion and a detonation wave are considered. Theoretical estimates of the explosive induction distance and the time of the combustion-to-explosion transition are obtained. These estimates are expressed by algebraic formulas, the use of which saves computer resources and does not require significant computer time. The latter fact is extremely important for the online control of potentially explosive objects. The calculations of the explosive induction distance and the time of the combustion-to-explosion transition agree with experimental data and the numerical results of other authors. Estimation of the time of a possible combustion-to-explosion transition allows to make timely and correct decision on measures to prevent an explosion or minimize its consequences. The constructed model is universal: it is applicable to the combustion of both homogeneous gas mixtures and heterogeneous media. The application of fuzzy logic makes it possible to use the proposed mathematical model of the transition from slow combustion to explosion for the software of decision support systems on the explosion safety and explosion protection for real potentially explosive objects in industry and transport. The advantage of this decision support system is that it allows the decision makers to do without experts.
This chapter describes the system problems of coordinated control of serviceability and the safety of complex hierarchical systems (CHSs) in real functioning conditions characterized by uncertainty and risks. On both the structural-functional analysis level and the control level there is a need to find a rational solution under conditions of conceptual uncertainty regarding the object’s shape, structure, and properties. In addition, it is necessary to take into account other factors [18, 83, 162, 175, 194, 198, 199, 201, 202, 207]. In particular, in practice there is no any a priori information that guarantees a reliable evaluation of constructional and technological abilities and predefined requirements to CHS main properties, indicators, and conditions of usage. The conditions of CHS usage are determined by various factors depending on the CHS’s purpose. However, nowadays for most CHS types, the risks connected with accidents and catastrophes have the utmost importance [33, 180].
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