Exploring sustainable land use in forested tropical social-ecological systems: A case-study in the Wet Tropics

Abstract

Tropical countries lie at the nexus of three pressing issues for global sustainability: agricultural production, climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. The forces that drive forest protection do not necessarily oppose those that drive forest clearance for development. This decoupling, enhanced by the stronger economic forces compared to conservation, is detrimental for the social-ecological sustainability of forested tropical landscapes. This paper presents an integrated, and spatially-explicit, Agent-Based Model that examines the future impacts of land-use change scenarios on the sustainability of the Wet Tropics region of tropical Queensland, Australia. In particular, the model integrates Bayesian Belief Networks, Geographical Information Systems, empirical data and expert knowledge, under a land-sharing/land-sparing analysis, to study the impact of different landscape configurations on trade-offs and synergies among biodiversity and two ecosystem services (sugarcane production and carbon sequestration). Contrary to most tropical regions, model simulations show that Business As Usual is helping to reconcile these contrasting goals in the forested landscape of the Wet Tropics. The paper analyses which combination of governance and socioeconomic factors is causing these positive results. This is an outstanding achievement for a tropical region, considering that most tropical areas are characterized for having stronger economic-land clearing forces compared to conservation forces, which reduce important ecosystem services for human wellbeing and the health of ecosystems.

Full text

UNCORRECTED PROOF
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1. Introduction
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UNCORRECTED PROOF
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2. Material and Methods
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DEB:CI A>I:G6IJG:H  DG9DC :I 6A  ,:A:8I>DC D; I=: 0:I -GDE>8H
6H 6 86H: HIJ9N I=:G:;DG: G:EG:H:CIH 6C >C;DGB6I>DCDG>:CI:9 :MIG:B:
9:K>6CI H6BEA: ANK7?:G<  G:8D<C>O:9 6H 6 G><DGDJH 6EEGD68= ID
JC9:GHI6C9>C< 8DBEA:M E=:CDB:CDC HJ8= 6H HJHI6>C67A: 9:K:ADEB:CI
DEI>DCH 6C9 >BE68IH :B7:99:9 >C I=:>G G:6ALDGA9 8DCI:MI 1>C 
-=: 0:I -GDE>8H '6IJG6A +:HDJG8: &6C6<:B:CI '+& G:<>DC >H DC: D; 
69B>C>HIG6I>K: G:<>DCH I=6I I=: JHIG6A>6 DK:GCB:CI =6H G:8D<C>O:9 ;DG I=: EJGEDH:H D;
'+& EA6CC>C< 6C9 ;JC9>C< JGI>H :I 6A 
-=: 0:I -GDE>8H 8DK:GH 6C 6G:6 D;  @BV 6C9 >H I=: DCAN G:
<>DC ID >C8AJ9: ILD 8DCIG6HI>C< 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: G:6H H>9: 7N H>9: –
I=: 0:I -GDE>8H 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: G:6 0-0! 6C9 I=: G:6I 6GG>:G
+::;  +V -=: 6G:6 >H =DB: ID 7DI= 6 G>8= 6C9 :C9JG>C< 7DG><>
C6A 8JAIJG6A =:G>I6<: 6C9 DC: D; I=: BDHI 7>DAD<>86AAN 9>K:GH: 6G:6H >C
I=: LDGA9 L>I= ;DG:HIH G:8D<C>O:9 6H E6GI D; DC: D; I=: I=>GINSK: >C
I:GC6I>DC6A <AD76A 7>D9>K:GH>IN =DIHEDIH 0>AA>6BH :I 6A   D;
8JGG:CI A6C9 >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H >H EGDI:8I:9 6 8DCH>9:G67AN A6G<:G 6G:6
I=6C I=: B6>C >C9JHIGN –HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC  –6C9 I=: IDI6A
EGD9J8I>DC A6C9 –>C8AJ9>C< 6<G>8JAIJG: EA6CI6I>DCH 6C9 DI=:G >CI:C
H>K: JH:H  ,"-"  !DL:K:G I=: HJ<6G86C: >C9JHIGN >H DC:
D; I=: BDHI >BEDGI6CI GJG6A >C9JHIG>:H >C JHIG6A>6 <G>JIJG:H 
6C9 >IH :ME6CH>DC LDJA9 I=G:6I:C I=: G>8= 7>D9>K:GH>IN D; I=: CDGI=:6HI
D; *J::CHA6C9 -=: 8JGG:CI . 8DCI:MI >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H H=DLH 6C
>C8G:6H: >C EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 7N 6GDJC9  H>C8:  L>I= I=: 6G:6
8DK:G:9 7N HJ<6G EA6CI6I>DCH G:B6>C>C< G:A6I>K:AN HI67A: ,"-" 
-=JH 6 . H8:C6G>D >C DJG BD9:A G:;:GH ID 6 8DCI:MI L=:G: EGDI:8I:9
6G:6H >C8G:6H: L=>A: HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC G:B6>CH HI67A:
 ':,>4,66C0B:64.4> 79/066482 91 >30 6,8/ =3,<4826,8/ =:,<482
1<,70A9<5
-=: 0:I -GDE>8H EGDK>9:H 6 96I6 G>8= 86H: ;DG >CK:HI><6I>DC D; %,)
%,! DEI>DCH JH>C< 6 HE6I>6AAN:MEA>8>I BD9:A 0>I= 6ABDHI  D; A6C9
EGDI:8I:9 6C9 6 HI67A:  D; 6<G>8JAIJG6A A6C9 6AAD86I:9 ;DG HJ<6G86C:
EGD9J8I>DC %. EGD8:HH:H 6G: A:HH ;G:FJ:CI I=6C >C BDHI DI=:G IGDE>
86A G:<>DCH D; I=: <AD7: H:: ,"-"  6C9 6H CDI:9 67DK: >IH G:A
6I>K: HD8>D:8DCDB>8 69K6CI6<: B:6CH I=6I 8DBEDJC9>C< ;68IDGH HJ8=
6H G6E>9 EDEJA6I>DC <GDLI= 6C9 EDK:GIN 6G: 67H:CI -=: 8=6G68I:G>HI>8
:CK>GDCB:CI6A 8DC9>I>DCH L>I= 6 =><= <G69>:CI 68GDHH I=: A6C9H86E: D;
G6>C;6AA 6C9 HD>A 8DC9>I>DCH ID <GDL HJ<6G86C: 6H L:AA 6H HIGDC< 8DC
H:GK6I>DC ;DG8:H L=>8= B6>CI6>C A6C9 8A:6G>C< EGD8:HH:H 6I 6 ADL G6I:
G:>C;DG8: 6 8A:6G H:<G:<6I>DC D; A6C9JH:H 67DJI L=>8= G:<JA6GAN JE96I:9
96I6 6G: EJ7A>86AAN 6K6>A67A: -=>H HE6I>6AAN:MEA>8>I 8DCI:MI EGDK>9:H 6
HJ>I67A: H8:C6G>D ID BD9:A I=: 8DCH:FJ:C8:H D; %,) DG %,! >C I=: 0:I
-GDE>8H
><  H=DLH 6 HE6I>6A H:<G:<6I>DC D; I=: I=G:: EG>B6GN 8A6HH:H D;
A6C9JH: INE:H >C I=: G:<>DC >: EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H ) HJ<6G86C: A6C9
,. 6C9 H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H ,' L=>8= 8G:6I:H 6 EA6I;DGB ID 6E
EAN I=>H ;G6B:LDG@ ;GDB 6 HE6I>6A E:GHE:8I>K: -=: :CK>GDCB:CI6A 6C9
A6C9JH: 8=6G68I:G>HI>8H D; H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H 6A><C L>I= I=: 8DC8:EI D;
%,! L=>A: 7DI= HJ<6G86C: EA6CI6I>DCH 6C9 EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 8DB7>C:9
6A><C L>I= I=: DC: D; %,) &DG: HE:8>;>86AAN I=: A6C9JH: 8A6HH>S86I>DC
9:K:ADE:9 7N %.&)V  G:;:GH ID H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H 6H 6 EG>
B6GN 8A6HH 76H:9 DC EGD9J8I>DC ;GDB G:A6I>K:AN C6IJG6A :CK>GDCB:CIH –
9:SC:9 6H A6C9 I=6I >H JH:9 B6>CAN ;DG EG>B6GN EGD9J8I>DC L>I= A>B
>I:9 8=6C<: ID I=: C6I>K: K:<:I6I>DC -=JH H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H L=>8= >C
8AJ9: C6I>K: ;DG:HIH 6C9 <G6HHA6C9H 6G: HJ7?:8I ID G:A6I>K:AN ADL A:K:AH
D; >CI:GK:CI>DC 6C9 I=: HIGJ8IJG: D; I=: C6I>K: K:<:I6I>DC <:C:G6AAN G:
B6>CH >CI68I %.&)  %,! 6AHD 86AA:9 ‘L>A9A>;:;G>:C9AN ;6GB
>C<’ >H @CDLC 6H 6 A6C9JH: HNHI:B I=6I 8DB7>C:H ADL >CI:CH>IN 6<G>
8JAIJG6A EGD9J8I>DC L>I= EGDI:8I>DC >C 6C 6<GD:8DAD<>86A B6IG>M  G::C
:I 6A  !JAB: :I 6A  )=6A6C :I 6A  6C9 I=:G:;DG:
6A><CH L>I= I=: H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H >C DJG HIJ9N G:<>DC –6H 9:SC:9 >C
%.&)  ,>B>A6GAN EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 6C9 HJ<6G86C: A6C9 6G: 9:
SC:9 7N %.&)  6H EG>B6GN 8A6HH:H 8DCH>HI>C< D; “8DCH:GK6I>DC
-=>H E6E:G DCAN ;D8JH:H DC I=: 0:I -GDE>8H 6C9 6C6ANH:H DC I=: + 6G: 7:NDC9 I=:
8JGG:CI H8DE: D; DJG BD9:A AI=DJ<= I=: >BE68IH D; A6C9JH: DC I=:  :8DHNHI:BH 6G:
L:AA9D8JB:CI:9 06I:G=DJH: :I 6A 
%.&) HI6C9H ;DG JHIG6A>6C DAA67DG6I>K: %6C9JH: 6C9 &6C6<:B:CI )GD<G6B
)6GIC:GH -=>H C6I>DC6AAN 8DCH>HI:CI 9D8JB:CI EGDK>9:H 6 A6C9JH: CDB:C8A6IJG: 6C9
8A6HH>S86I>DC H8=:B: ;DG JHIG6A>6


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
Fig. 1. :D<G6E=>8 AD86I>DC D; I=: 0:I -GDE>8H '6IJG6A +:HDJG8: &6C6<:B:CI G:<>DC CDGI=:6HI *J::CHA6C9 JHIG6A>6 -=>H 9><>I6A A6C9 JH: B6E >H 6 EGD9J8I D; I=: *J::CHA6C9 %6C9 .H:
&6EE>C< )GD<G6B *%.&) 6C9 L6H EGD9J8:9 7N I=: *J::CHA6C9 DK:GCB:CI -=: 96I6H:I 8DBEG>H:H 6C ,+" K:8IDG <:D96I676H: 6I 6 CDB>C6A H86A: D;  -=: EG>B6GN A6C9JH:H
9>HEA6N:9 6G: ;DG:HIGN 6G:6H  =DGI>8JAIJG: !( DI=:G 8GDEH ( EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H ) G:H>9:CI>6A 6C9 >C9JHIG>6A 6G:6H +", H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H ,' HJ<6G86C: A6C9H ,. 6C9 L6I:G
7D9>:H 0 >G8A:9 6G:6H H=DL I=: 9>;;:G:CI HJ<6G86C: B>AA6G:6H EG:H:CI >C I=: G:<>DC -=: E=DID<G6E=H DC I=: 7DIIDB H=DL AD86A :M6BEA:H D; I=: I=G:: EG>B6GN A6C9JH:H 8DCH>9:G:9
EGDI:8I:9 A:;I H:B>C6IJG6A 8:CIG: 6C9 HJ<6G86C: G><=I 6G:6H
6C9 C6IJG6A :CK>GDCB:CIH”>C8AJ9>C< HIG>8I C6IJG: G:H:GK:H C6I>DC6A
E6G@H 6C9 DI=:G 8DCH:GK:9 6G:6HV 6C9 “>CI:CH>K: HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC
;GDB >GG><6I:9 6C9 9GNA6C9 6<G>8JAIJG:” G:HE:8I>K:AN -=JH I=: 8DB7>
C6I>DC D; 7DI= EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 6C9 HJ<6G86C: 6<G>8JAIJG6A A6C9 6A><CH
L>I= I=: 8DC8:EI D; %,) L=>8= >H 76H:9 DC >CI:CH>;N>C< EGD9J8I>DC ID
B6M>B>O: 6<G>8JAIJG6A N>:A9 L>I=>C 6 SM:9 6G:6 L=>A: 9:9>86I>C< DI=:G
A6C9 ID 7>D9>K:GH>IN 8DCH:GK6I>DC  G::C :I 6A  !JAB: :I 6A 
)=6A6C :I 6A  -67A:  H=DLH 6 FJ6A>I6I>K: 9:H8G>EI>DC D; I=: G6
I>DC6A: ;DG I=: 9>;;:G:CI H8:C6G>DH BD9:AA:9
'DI: I=6I I=: %.&) A6C9 JH: “8DCH:GK6I>DC 6C9 C6IJG6A :CK>GDCB:CIH”>H K>GIJ6AAN
>9:CI>86A >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H L>I= EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H B6C6<:B:CI 86I:<DG>:H ""/ 6H 9:SC:9
7N I=: ".' ,DB: HB6AA 6G:6H D; =><=AN H><C>S86CI C6IJG6A :CK>GDCB:CIH C:6G I=:
8D6HIA>C: I=6I 6G: CDI ".' EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 6G: 86I:<DG>H:9 7N %.&) 6H “L:IA6C9H”
6C9 6G: :M8AJ9:9 >C8AJ9:9 ;GDB DJG 6C6ANH>H %.&) 9>H6<<G:<6I:H “8DCH:GK6I>DC 6C9
C6IJG6A :CK>GDCB:CIH”>CID 9>U:G:CI EGDI:8I>DC 86I:<DG>:H L=>8= 6G: 6AA >CI:<G6I:9 6H
“EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H”>C DJG BD9:A
"C H=DGI DJG BD9:A :MEADG:H %. 9NC6B>8H L>I= G:<6G9 ID H:B>C6I
JG6A 6G:6H %,! 6C9 I=: C:MJH D; EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H–HJ<6G86C: A6C9 %,)
-=: %. H8:C6G>DH :MEADG:9 >C8AJ9: %,! L=:G: H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H >C
8G:6H:9:8G:6H: %,) L=:G: EGDI:8I:9 6C9 HJ<6G86C: 6G:6H >C8G:6H:
9:8G:6H: 6C9 . L=:G: EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H >C8G:6H: 6I I=: H6B: G6I: 6H
9JG>C< I=: E:G>D9 – H:: ,"-"  (JG BD9:A :MEADG:H
I=: >BE68I DK:G I>B: D; I=:H: %. EGD8:HH:H DC HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8
I>DC 86G7DC H:FJ:HIG6I>DC 6C9 7>D9>K:GH>IN 8DCH:GK6I>DC "C I=>H G:<6G9
6AI=DJ<= %,) K:GHJH %,! HIJ9>:H 6G: JHJ6AAN ;D8JH:9 DC B>C>B>O>C<
IG69:DUH 7:IL::C 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 6 EGD9J8I>DC <D6A HJ<6G86C: >C I=>H
86H: DJG G:H:6G8= 6AHD >CI:<G6I:H I=: HIJ9N D; DC: DI=:G , >: 86G7DC
H:FJ:HIG6I>DC 9J: ID I=: >BEDGI6C8: ;GDB 6C :CK>GDCB:CI6A E:GHE:8
I>K: D; 86G7DC :B>HH>DCH ;GDB 9:;DG:HI6I>DC >C IGDE>86A G:<>DCH JGI=:G
BDG: I=: HE6I>6AAN:MEA>8>I C6IJG: D; I=: BD9:A 6>BH ID 8DCIG>7JI: ID I=:
A68@ D; HE6I>6AAN:MEA>8>I %,)%,! HIJ9>:H >H8=:G :I 6A  %6L :I
6A 


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
Table 1
'6GG6I>K:H D; I=: H8:C6G>DH BD9:AA:9 ;DG I=: E:G>D9 –
,8:C6G>D
– :H8G>EI>DC
JH>C:HHH.HJ6A
.
“0DGA9
!:G>I6<:”
-=:CJB7:G6C9:MI:CID;EGDI:8I:96G:6H>CI=:0:I-GDE>8H
@::E>C8G:6H>C<>CDG9:GIDB::I8DCH:GK6I>DCI6G<:IH;DGG6G:
6C9:C96C<:G:9:8DHNHI:BH-=:IDI6A:MI:CID;H:B>C6IJG6A
6G:6H>C8G:6H:HHA><=IAN;DAADL>C<I=:IG:C9H;GDBI=:E:G>D9
–)GD9J8I>DCB6>CANHJ<6G86C:G:B6>CHHI67A:
DK:GI>B:H>C8:DI=:GG:<>DCH>C*J::CHA6C9:<&68@6N
0=>IHJC96NH6G:G6I=:G;D8JH:9DCB::I>C<C6I>DC6A
EGD9J8I>DC9:B6C9H
%6C9,E6G>C<
%,)
“0DGA9!:G>I6<:
6C9JHIG6A>6H
‘;DD97DLA’
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

UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
Fig. 3. "C>I>6A  EG>B6GN A6C9JH: 9>HIG>7JI>DC ;DG I=: 0:I -GDE>8H D7I6>C:9 7N >CI:<G6I>C< 6 EG>B6GN A6C9JH: B6E   >CID ':I%D<D 'DI: I=6I I=: 86H:HIJ9N 6G:6 >H AD86I:9
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68IJ6A ;6GB:GH DLC>C< A6C9 E6G8:AH  BDK: 6GDJC9 I=: A6C9H86E:
G:EG:H:CI>C< I=DH: EDA>8>:H >C8:CI>K:H 6C9 <DK:GC6C8: ;DG8:H 9G>K>C<
6<G>8JAIJG6A :ME6CH>DC 7N ;6GB:GH –L=>8= >H I=: B6>C A6C9 8A:6G>C<


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
Fig. 4. .&% 8I>K>IN >6<G6B ,IGJ8IJG: 9>6<G6B H=DL>C< I=: HI:E 7N HI:E EGD8:HH 8DBEJI:9 7N $,208>= 6C9 A6C9JH:H E6I8=:H8:AAH >C I=: BD9:A
EGD8:HH D88JGG>C< 6I I=: A6C9H86E:G:<>DC6A A:K:A >C I=: 0:I -GDE
>8H !>AA :I 6A 6 -=: H6B: >H I=: 86H: ;DG 7DI= $V:,208>= 6C9
$V7<,208>= L=>8= G:EG:H:CI EGDI:8I>DC 6C9 G:HIDG6I>DC HIG6I:<>:H >BEA:
B:CI:9 6I I=: 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: G:6 A:K:A >: G:<>DC6A H86A: 7N I=: 0:I
-GDE>8H &6C6<:B:CI JI=DG>IN !>AA :I 6A 6 !:C8: $,208>= 6G:
CDI H>BJA6I:9 6H 6<:CIH DLC>C< A6C9 E6G8:AH 7JI G6I=:G 6H ;DG8:H G:
HJAI>C< ;GDB <DK:GC6C8: 6GG6C<:B:CIH I=6I BDK: 6GDJC9 I=: A6C9H86E:
6C9 9G>K: %. >C E6II:GCH 76H:9 DC :BE>G>86A 96I6 6C9 :ME:GI @CDLA
:9<: :MEA6>C:9 7:ADL
-=: I>B:H86A: D; I=: BD9:A L6H 76H:9 DC :ME:GI @CDLA:9<: H::
‘ME:GI @CDLA:9<:’7:ADL -D 9:8>9: =DL B6CN I>B: HI:EH 8DGG:
HEDC9H ID DC: N:6G >C I=: BD9:A :ME:GIH JH:9 =>HIDG>8 %. 96I6 ;GDB
I=: :E6GIB:CI D; ,8>:C8: "C;DGB6I>DC -:8=CDAD<N 6C9 "CCDK6I>DC
,"-"  D; *J::CHA6C9 >GHI I=: N:6GAN 6K:G6<: 8=6C<: >C E:G
8:CI K6AJ:H 6C9 =:8I6G:H G:<6G9>C< I=: I=G:: B6>C %. BD9:AA:9 L6H
86A8JA6I:9 ;DG I=: E:G>D9 – ,:8DC9 EG:A>B>C6GN BD9:A DJI
EJIH ;GDB I=: . H8:C6G>D L:G: 6C6ANH:9 >C DG9:G ID :HI>B6I: =DL
B6CN BD9:A I>B: HI:EH L:G: C::9:9 ID H>BJA6I: I=: 67DK:CDI:9 N:6GAN
%. K6AJ:H H 6 G:HJAI %. EGD8:HH:H D88JGG>C< >C  I>B: HI:EH
>C I=: BD9:A 8DGG:HEDC9 ID DC: N:6G >C I=: G:6A LDGA9 I=JH 6;I:G
 I>B: HI:EH I=: BD9:A >H 8DCH>9:G:9 ID =6K: H>BJA6I:9  N:6GH L>I=
 6C9  6H >C>I>6A 6C9 SC6A N:6GH G:HE:8I>K:AN
 '47?6,>498 :<9.0== ,8/ 9@0<@40A
><  H=DLH 6 .&% 68I>K>IN 9>6<G6B G:EG:H:CI>C< I=: B6>C 9NC6B>8H
D; I=: HNHI:B 6C9 I=: TDL ;GDB DC: EGD8:HH ID I=: C:MI DC: -=: ;DAADL
>C< >H 6 A>HI D; I=: BD9:A EGD8:HH:H I6@>C< EA68: :K:GN I>B: HI:E L=>8=
6G: 9:H8G>7:9 >C 9:I6>A 7:ADL H:: ‘,J7BD9:AH’>C ," 9D8JB:CI ;DG 6 9:
I6>A:9 9:H8G>EI>DC D; BD9:A ;JC8I>DCH 6C9 6A<DG>I=BH > H8:C6G>D H:A:8
I>DC >> ‘DI=:G A6C9JH:H’V 8DBEJI: %. >>> A6C9JH:HE6I8=:H8:AAH
8DBEJI: %.HJ>I67>A>IN '* K6AJ:H ;GDB 'H >K ) 6<:CIH 8DB
EJI: BDK:B:CI 76H:9 DC '*@,6?0= K ) 6<:CIH 8DBEJI: )+K6AJ:
6C9 E6I8=:H 8DBEJI: %. K> A6C9JH:H E6I8=:H8:AAH 8DBEJI: >C9>
86IDGH
-=:H: G:;:G ID 6AA A6C9JH:H :M8:EI HJ<6G86C: EGDI:8I:9 6C9 H:B>C6IJG6A L=>8= 6G:
BD9:AA:9 7JI CDI 6C6ANH:9 >C I=: +:HJAIH


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
Fig. 5. 6N:H>6C :A>:; ':ILDG@ ' M6BEA: D; 6 ' 9:K:ADE:9 JH>C< :'":VQ L>I= 6 DC9>I>DC6A )GD767>A>IN -67A: )- DC I=: 7DIIDB DI= A><=I G:9 6C9 <G::C 7DM:H G:EG:H:CI
7>DE=NH>86A HE6I>6AAN :MEA>8>I >: ", CD9:H >: >CEJI CD9:H L=>A: 96G@ G:9 >: >CI:GB:9>6I: 6C9 N:AADL >: DJIEJI CD9:H 6G: 8DBEA:I:9 JH>C< :ME:GI @CDLA:9<: DADJG:9 76GH
G:EG:H:CI I=: 8DC9>I>DC6A EGD767>A>I>:H ;DG :68= )- 86I:<DGN -=>H E6GI>8JA6G ' :M6BEA: >H 8DBEJI:9 7N H:B>C6IJG6A A6C9JH:H JC9:G I=: . H8:C6G>D "C I=>H E6GI>8JA6G 86H: I=:
EGD767>A>IN ;DG DC: H:B>C6IJG6A A6C9JH: ID 7: EGDI:8I:9 =6K>C<  D; ‘DCH:GK6I>DC )DI:CI>6A’6C9  D; ‘,J<6G86C: )GD9J8I>DC )DI:CI>6A’ >H  7:>C< I=: EGD767>A>IN ID G:B6>C
6H H:B>C6IJG6A  6C9 ID 7:8DB: 9:K:ADE:9  J: ID  7:>C< =><=:G I=6C  I=: EG>DG LDJA9 8DBEJI:9 6H '*@,6?0 ;DG I=>H HE:8>S8 A6C9JH: DG >CI:GEG:I6I>DC D; I=: G:;:G:C8:H
ID 8DADJG >C I=>H S<JG: A:<:C9 I=: G:69:G >H G:;:GG:9 ID I=: 0:7 K:GH>DC D; I=>H 6GI>8A:
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BDK: 6GDJC9 I=: A6C9H86E: G:EG:H:CI>C< ;DG8:H 9G>K>C< %. DBEJI6
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HI:E DC: ;DG :68= INE: D; %. EGDI:8I>DC G:HIDG6I>DC 6C9 A6C9 8A:6G
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

UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
Fig. 6. ,E6I>6A H8:C6G>D DJIEJIH %6C9JH: K6G>6I>DCH 6G: H=DLC ;DG :68= H8:C6G>D .  JH>C:HH H .HJ6A %,)  %6C9,E6G>C< %,!  %6C9,=6G>C< G:<6G9>C< I=: N:6GH  
6C9  'DI: I=6I I=: A:<:C9 ;GDB ><  =6H ID 7: JH:9 ;DG I=>H S<JG:
H>IN DG HJ<6G86C: N>:A9 L=>A: A>C@H G:EG:H:CI 86JH6A EGD767>A>HI>8 G:A6
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=6H I=G:: 9>;;:G:CI 86I:<DG>:H DC: ;DG :68= INE: D; %. EGD8:HH EGDI:8
I>DC G:HIDG6I>DC 6C9 EGD9J8I>DC9:K:ADEB:CI 0>I= 6 K6AJ: 7:IL::C
 6C9  :68= 86I:<DGN ;GDB I=>H DJIEJI CD9: :HI>B6I:H I=: EGD767>A>IN
;DG :68= %. INE: ID I6@: EA68: >C :68= A6C9JH: :K:GN I>B: HI:E >:
'*@,6?0=
-=: EGD767>A>I>:H D; I=DH: )-H ;GDB >CI:GB:9>6I: 6C9 DJIEJI '
CD9:H ><  L:G: 8DBEJI:9 JH>C< :ME:GI DE>C>DC "C DG9:G ID <6I=:G
:ME:GI76H:9 FJ6A>I6I>K: 96I6 I=: ‘;D8JH <GDJEH’B:I=D9 L6H JH:9
$>IO>C<:G  &DG<6C  >AA :I 6A  JGI=:GBDG: I6G
<:I K6AJ:H :68= H8:C6G>D 6C9 I=: BD9:AH I>B:H86A: L:G: :HI67A>H=:9
I=GDJ<= :ME:GI @CDLA:9<: 6C9 9>H8JHH:9 9JG>C< I=: ;D8JH <GDJE B::I
>C<H ,:: ‘"CI:<G6I>C< :ME:GI @CDLA:9<: >C I=: BD9:A’H:8I>DC >C I=: ,"
9D8JB:CI ;DG BDG: 9:I6>AH


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
3. Results
+:HJAIH G:<6G9>C< I=: >C9>86IDGH H:A:8I:9 L:G: D7I6>C:9 ;DG :68= D;
I=: I=G:: H8:C6G>DH . %,) %,! 6C9 <GDJE:9 >CID I=:>G HE6I>6A 6C9
:BE>G>86A >BE68IH  FJ6A>I6I>K: 6C6ANH>H L6H E:G;DGB:9 7:86JH: D; DJG
B6>C >CI:G:HI >C :MEADG>C< I=: DK:G6AA 9>;;:G:C8:H >C IG:C9H 6BDC< I=:
>C9>86IDGH 6C9 H8:C6G>DH I:HI:9
 =>47,>0/ =:,>4,6 47:,.>=
><  H=DLH I=: HE6I>6A :MEA>8>I DJIEJIH D7I6>C:9 L>I= ':I%D<D –
CDI: I=6I I=: A:<:C9 ;GDB ><  >H JH:9 ID 9:H8G>7: ><  -=G:: DJIEJI
B6EH L:G: D7I6>C:9 ;DG :68= H8:C6G>D DC: ;DG :68= I>B: HI:E N:6G –
  6C9  –G:HJAI>C< >C C>C: B6EH >C IDI6A -=: ;DAADL>C<
H:8I>DCH – 9:H8G>7: I=: HE6I>6A G:HJAIH D7I6>C:9 ;DG :68= D;
I=: I=G:: H8:C6G>DH . %,) %,!
 ?=480== = ?=?,6 )
-=: IDE GDL D; ><  H=DLH I=: HE6I>6A 9>HIG>7JI>DC D; A6C9JH:H
;DG I=: . H8:C6G>D "C I=>H H8:C6G>D EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H >C8G:6H: 7N 
>C DG9:G ID B::I I=: 8DCH:GK6I>DC I6G<:IH D; I=: 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: A>HI
>C< L=>A: EGD9J8I>DC B6>CAN HJ<6G86C: G:B6>CH HI67A: DK:G I>B: -=:
BDHI HE6I>6A CDI:LDGI=N IG:C9 >H 76H:9 DC I=DH: H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H >:
C6I>K: E6HIJG: 6C9 EGD9J8I>DC ;DG:HIGN L>I= ADL HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC
EDI:CI>6A 6C9 =><= 8DCH:GK6I>DC EDI:CI>6A K6AJ:H 7:>C< 8DCK:GI:9 >CID
EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H –B6>CAN AD86I:9 ID I=: L:HI D; 8JGG:CIAN EGDI:8I:9 G6>C
;DG:HIH (I=:G EDI:CI>6A H>I:H ;DG C:L EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 6G: AD86I:9 >C I=:
CDGI=L:HI &DHHB6C 6C9 HDJI=L:HI !:G7:GI +>K:G 6G:6H H:: >< 
;DG I=: HE:8>S8 AD86I>DC D; I=:H: 6G:6H H :HI>B6I:9 7:ADL I=>H H8:
C6G>D =6H EDH>I>K: >BE68IH DC 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 86G7DC H:FJ:HIG6I>DC 7JI
C:<6I>K: >BE68IH DC HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC
 ,8/ =:,<482  '$
-=: 0:I -GDE>8H 8DCI>CJ:H ID B::I 8DCH:GK6I>DC I6G<:IH 7N >C8G:6H
>C< EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 7N  8DB7>C:9 L>I= >C8G:6H:H >C HJ<6G86C: EGD
9J8I>DC 7N  ><  >C I=: B>99A: GDL H=DLH I=: HE6I>6A 9>HIG>7J
I>DC D; C:L EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 6C9 C:L HJ<6G86C: A6C9H 8DCK:GI:9 ;GDB
H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H ,:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H L>I= =><= 8DCH:GK6I>DC EDI:CI>6A
6C9 ADL HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC EDI:CI>6A K6AJ:H =6K: 6 =><=:G EGD76
7>A>IN D; 7:>C< EGDI:8I:9 L=>A: I=DH: L>I= =><= EGD9J8I>DC EDI:CI>6A
6C9 ADL 8DCH:GK6I>DC K6AJ:H =6K: 6 =><=:G EGD767>A>IN D; 7:>C< 9:K:A
DE:9 ;DG HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC ':L EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H ;DAADL 6 H>B>
A6G HE6I>6A 9>HIG>7JI>DC E6II:GC 6H >C . H8:C6G>D =DL:K:G I=:>G :M
I:CI >H ADL:G 9J: ID C:L HJ<6G86C: A6C9 D88JEN>C< H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H
I=6I 8DJA9 =6K: 7:8DB: EGDI:8I:9 DI=:GL>H: ':L HJ<6G86C: 6G:6H 6G:
B6>CAN AD86I:9 ID I=: :6HI D; I=: -67A:A6C9H L>I= HB6AA:G 6G:6H >C "CC>H
;6>A -JAAN 6C9 !:G7:GI +>K:G H :HI>B6I:9 7:ADL I=>H H8:C6G>D =6H EDH>
I>K: >BE68IH DC HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC 6C9 C:<6I>K: DG G:A6I>K:AN HI67A:
>BE68IH DC 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 86G7DC H:FJ:HIG6I>DC
 ,8/ =3,<482  '
-=: *J::CHA6C9 6C9 JHIG6A>6C DK:GCB:CIH A:69 6 IG6CH>I>DC ID
L6G9H 6 BDG: BJAI>;JC8I>DC6A 9>H8DJGH: >: %,! L=:G:
L>A9A>;:;G>:C9AN ;6GB>C< EG68I>8:H >: H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H 6G: :C=6C8:9
 6I I=: :ME:CH: D; HJ<6G86C: N>:A9H 6C9 EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H "C ><
 I=: B6EH >C I=: 7DIIDB GDL H=DL C:L H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H >: C6
I>K: E6HIJG: 6C9 EGD9J8I>DC ;DG:HIGN 8DCK:GI:9 ;GDB EG:K>DJHAN EGD
I:8I:9 6C9 HJ<6G86C: A6C9H 0=>A: C:L C6I>K: E6HIJG: 6G:6H 6G: B6>CAN
8DCK:GI:9 ;GDB EG:K>DJHAN EGDI:8I:9 G6>C;DG:HIH L>I= ADL 8DCH:GK6I>DC
K6AJ: -67A:A6C9H C:L EGD9J8I>DC ;DG:HIGN 6G:6H 6G: 8DCK:GI:9 ;GDB
7DI= EG:K>DJHAN EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H 6C9 HJ<6G86C: A6C9H L>I= ADL 8DC
H:GK6I>DC 6C9 EGD9J8I>DC EDI:CI>6A K6AJ:H G:HE:8I>K:AN AD86I:9 ID I=:
8:CIG::6HI D; I=: HIJ9N 6G:6 >: "CC>H;6>A -JAAN 6C9 !:G7:GI +>K:G
-=>H HE:8>S8
9>HIG>7JI>DC >: ADL K:<:I6I:9 C6I>K: E6HIJG: ID I=: L:HI 6C9 =><=AN
K:<:I6I:9 ;DG:HIGN 6G:6H <D>C< ;GDB I=: 8:CIG: ID I=: :6HI >H 9J: ID G6>C
;6AA K6AJ:H +6>C;6AA >H 6C >BEDGI6CI ;68IDG >C I=: IGDE>8H A>B>I>C< I=: :M
I:CI ID L=>8= =><=AN K:<:I6I:9 6C9 ;DG:HI:9 6G:6H <GDL L>I= G6>C;6AA K6A
J:H ADL:G I=6C  BB "C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H I=DH: 6G:6H L>I= G6>C;6AA
K6AJ:H 67DK:  BB 6G: AD86I:9 ;GDB I=: 8:CIG: ID I=: :6HI >: 6AA 6G
:6H 7JI I=: -67A:A6C9 H:: ><  -=JH 6G:6H AD86I:9 ID I=: L:HI =6K:
6 =><=:G EGD767>A>IN ID 7: 8DCK:GI:9 >CID EGD9J8I>DC ;DG:HIGN L=>A: 6G
:6H ID I=: :6HI >: -67A:A6C9 6G: BDG: A>@:AN ID H=DL C6I>K: E6HIJG:
H :HI>B6I:9 7:ADL I=: %,! H8:C6G>D =6H G:A6I>K:AN HI67A: DG EDH>I>K:
>BE68IH DC 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 86G7DC H:FJ:HIG6I>DC N:I C:<6I>K: >BE68IH
DC HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC
 =>47,>0/ 47:,.>=
><  H=DLH I=: :BE>G>86A <G6E=>86A G:HJAIH ;GDB I=: >C9>86IDGH H:
A:8I:9
>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I >C9>86IDGH H=DL I=: K6G>6I>DC D;
8JGG:CI 7>D9>K:GH>IN K6AJ:H 6C9 I=: ;JIJG: :MI>C8I>DC D; HE:8>:H 9J: ID
:K:CIH >C I=: E6HI G:HE:8I>K:AN L=:G: I=: A6II:G D88JGH 7:86JH: D; I>B:
9:A6NH 7:IL::C >BE68IH DC HE:8>:H 6C9 I=: HE:8>:H JAI>B6I: 9>H6EE:6G
6C8: #68@HDC 6C9 ,6M  "C H=DGI 7>D9>K:GH>IN H=DLH I=: ‘<GDHH’
7>D9>K:GH>IN L=:G:6H :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I H=DLH I=: ‘C:I’;JIJG: 7>D9>K:G
H>IN -=: . H8:C6G>D ><  H=DLH EDH>I>K: IG:C9H ;DG 7>D9>K:GH>IN
6C9 HA><=IAN 9:8G:6H>C< ;DG :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I L=>A: %,! H=DLH HA><=IAN
EDH>I>K: IG:C9H ;DG 7DI= >C9>86IDGH 6C9 %,) H=DLH 6 HI:69N HI67A: IG:C9
;DG 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 6 9:8G:6H: ;DAADL:9 7N 6C :MEDC:CI>6A >C8G:6H: ;DG
:MI>C8I>DC 9:7I DI= 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I K6GN 76H:9 DC I=:
EGDEDGI>DC D; =67>I6I G:HIDG:9 6C9 9:HIGDN:9 6H L:AA 6H =67>I6I 8DCC:8
I>K>IN >: I=: =><=:G I=: 8DCC:8I>K>IN 6C9 =67>I6IH G:HIDG:9 I=: =><=:G
7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 ADL:G :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I K6AJ:H -=JH L=>A: . B6N 7:
6 HJHI6>C67A: H8:C6G>D ;DG 7>D9>K:GH>IN >C I=: H=DGII:GB H:: 7>D9>K:G
H>IN . I=>H H8:C6G>D 8DJA9 :C9 JE 9>B>C>H=>C< I=: 7>D9>K:GH>IN >C
I=: ADC<I:GB H:: :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I . ,>B>A6GAN N:I ID 6 =><=:G :M
I:CI I=: :MEDC:CI>6AAN >C8G:6H>C< :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I K6AJ:H D7I6>C:9 ;DG
%,) 6;I:G  8DJA9 6AHD B:6C I=6I 7>D9>K:GH>IN LDJA9 :C9 JE 9GDEE>C<
JC9:G %,) EG68I>8:H >C I=: ADC<I:GB H:: :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I %,) G:<6G9
A:HH D; I=: 8JGG:CI G:A6I>K:AN EDH>I>K: 7>D9>K:GH>IN G:HJAIH H:: 7>D9>K:G
H>IN %,) -=: >H8JHH>DC  H:8I>DC 6C6ANH:H I=: >BEDGI6C8: D; :MI>C8
I>DC 9:7I 6C9 C:I 7>D9>K:GH>IN K6AJ:H >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H
+:<6G9>C< HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC . H=DLH HI:69N HI6I: HJ<6G86C:
K6AJ:H 7DI= >C IDCH 6C9 BDC:I6GN K6AJ: L=:G:6H %,! H=DLH 9:8G:6H
>C< K6AJ:H 6C9 %,) >C8G:6H>C< ,J<6G86C: K6AJ:H >C8G:6H: L>I= BDG:
A6C9 8A:6G:9 ;DG 6<G>8JAIJG: HJ8= 6H E6GI>6AAN >C %,) L=>A: EGD9J8I>DC
9:8G:6H:H L>I= 6G:6 EGDI:8I>DC . 6C9 G:HIDG6I>DC EGD8:HH:H %,!
-=: G:6HDC L=N HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC 9D:H CDI 9:8G:6H: JC9:G . –
L=:G: BDG: 6C9 BDG: 6G:6H 6G: EGDI:8I:9 –>H 7:86JH: HJ8= EGDI:8I>DC
D88JGH >C 8JGG:CI H:B>C6IJG6A 6G:6H >CHI:69 D; HJ<6G86C: A6C9 6G7DC
H:FJ:HIG6I>DC K6AJ:H A>@:L>H: HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC 8=6C<: DK:G I>B:
76H:9 DC %. L=>8= 6;;:8IH K:<:I6I>DC 8DK:G 6C9 <GDLI= !:G: .
H=DLH 6C :MEDC:CI>6A >C8G:6H: >C I=: 6BDJCI D; 86G7DC H:FJ:HI:G:9 6C9
%,! H=DLH 6 G:A6I>K:AN A>C:6G >C8G:6H: %,) >C 8DCIG6HI >H I=: DCAN H8:
C6G>D H=DL>C< C:<6I>K: K6AJ:H ;DG 86G7DC H:FJ:HIG6I>DC 7DI= >C IDCH
6C9 BDC:I6GN K6AJ:
><  H=DLH I=: EDL:G 6C9 >CTJ:C8: D; EGDI:8I>DC 6C9 9:K:ADE
B:CI ;DG8:H DC 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6I I=: A6C9H86E: A:K:A "C E6GI>8JA6G >I
H=DLH I=: >BE68I DC 7>D9>K:GH>IN D; ILD H:IH D; 86H:H L>I= 9>;;:G:CI
>C>I>6A 6BDJCI D; EGDI:8I>DC ;DG8:H 9G>K>C< A6C9 EGDI:8I>DC $V:,208>=
6C9 9:K:ADEB:CI ;DG8:H 9G>K>C< A6C9 8A:6G>C< ;DG HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8
I>DC $V/,208>= -=: =:6IB6E DC IDE D; ><  H=DLH 7>D9>K:GH>IN G:
HJAIH L>I= DC: H>C<A: >C>I>6A $V:,208> 6C9 9>;;:G:CI >C>I>6A CJB7:G D;
$V/,208>= L=>A: I=: 7DIIDB =:6IB6E H=DLH G:HJAIH ;DG DC: H>C<A: >C>
I>6A $V/,208> 6C9 9>;;:G:CI >C>I>6A CJB7:G D; $V:,208>= -=: =><=:G
K6G>67>A>IN D; 7>D9>K:GH>IN >C I=: IDE =:6IB6E 8DBE6G:9 ID I=: 7DIIDB


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
Fig. 7. G6E=>86A H8:C6G>D DJIEJIH +:HJAIH 6G: H=DLC 6H I=: I:BEDG6A K6G>6I>DC >C C:I <6>CH  ADHH:H D; 9>;;:G:CI HD8>D:8DCDB>8 6C9 :CK>GDCB:CI6A >C9>86IDGH ;DG :68= H8:C6G>D
.  <G::C %,)  G:9 %,!  7AJ: H:: A:<:C9 DI= HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC 6C9 86G7DC H:FJ:HIG6I>DC 6G: H=DLC >C IDCH 6C9 JHIG6A>6C DAA6GH . DADJG 76C9H G:EG:H:CI I=: HI6C
96G9 :GGDG 76C9H G:<6G9>C< 6AA I=: GJCH 8DBEJI:9 ;DG :68= >C9>86IDG JC9:G :K:GN H8:C6G>D -=: 7A68@ 8DADJG:9 A>C:H H=DL I=: B:6C K6AJ:H DG >CI:GEG:I6I>DC D; I=: G:;:G:C8:H ID 8DADJG
>C I=>H S<JG: A:<:C9 I=: G:69:G >H G:;:GG:9 ID I=: 0:7 K:GH>DC D; I=>H 6GI>8A:
=:6IB6E H=DLH I=6I 6H :ME:8I:9 7>D9>K:GH>IN >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H >C
8G:6H:H 8DCH>9:G67AN L>I= HIGDC<:G EGDI:8I>DC ;DG8:H >: =><=:G CJB7:G
D; $V:,208>= "C 8DCIG6HI 9:K:ADEB:CI ;DG8:H $V/,208>= =6K: 6 A>B
>I:9 >CTJ:C8: DC 7>D9>K:GH>IN 7DIIDB =:6IB6E :K:C >C I=DH: H8:C6G
>DH L>I= HIGDC< 9:K:ADEB:CI ;DG8:H 9G>K>C< A6C9 8A:6G>C< ;DG 6<G>8JAIJG:
>: =><=:G CJB7:G D; $V/,208>= -=:H: G:HJAIH EGDK>9: 6 76H:A>C: ;DG
<DK:GC6C8: 9>H8JHH>DC 699G:HH:9 >C I=: >H8JHH>DC  H:8I>DC
4. Discussion
0=6I HD8>D:8DCDB>8 <DK:GC6C8: 6C9 :CK>GDCB:CI6A ;68IDGH 6G:
=:AE>C< ID G:8DC8>A: ;DD9 EGD9J8I>DC 8A>B6I: 8=6C<: B>I><6I>DC 6C9
7>D9>K:GH>IN 8DCH:GK6I>DC >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H
.C9:G I=: ;G6B:LDG@ 6C9 BD9:AA>C< 6EEGD68= 8DCH>9:G:9 G:HJAIH
H=DL I=6I I=: . H8:C6G>D >C I=: ;DG:HI:9 A6C9H86E: D; I=: 0:I -GDE
>8H >H =:AE>C< ID EGDK>9: ;DD9 8DCH:GK: 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 H:FJ:HI:G 6I
BDHE=:G>8 86G7DC -=:H: G:HJAIH 6G: D; BDG: >BEDGI6C8: 8DCH>9:G>C<
I=6I I=>H IGDE>86A 6G:6 –6H L>I= DI=:G IGDE>86A G:<>DCH –>H B6C6<:9 JC
9:G <AD76A 6C9 C6I>DC6A B6G@:I :8DCDB>:H I=6I <:C:G6AAN ;6KDJG A6C9
8A:6G>C< ;DG 6<G>8JAIJG: DK:G 8DCH:GK6I>DC 6AAH  JGI=:GBDG:
IG6CHA6I>C< I=: G:HJAIH ;GDB ><  >CID 6 <DK:GC6C8: 8DCI:MI I=: 8JG
G:CI HIG:C<I= D; I=: EDL:G D; <DK:GC6C8: >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H ;D8JH:9 DC
EGDI:8I>C< G6>C;DG:HIH B6>CI6>C>C< =><= 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 A>B>I>C< A6C9
;DG 9:K:ADEB:CI >H G:A6I>K:AN =><= ,>B>A6GAN I=: HIG:C<I= D; I=: EDL:G
D; <DK:GC6C8: 9G>K>C< A6C9 8A:6G>C< ;DG HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC >C I=: 0:I
-GDE>8H >H CDI HJ;S8>:CIAN HIGDC< ID 9:8G:6H: 7>D9>K:GH>IN :K:C >C I=DH:
H8:C6G>DH L=:G: 9:K:ADEB:CI ;DG8:H 6G: 8DCH>9:G67AN HIGDC<:G I=6C EGD
I:8I>DC ;DG8:H -=:G:;DG: I=:H: G:HJAIH ID<:I=:G L>I= I=: 7>D9>K:GH>IN
DJI8DB:H D7I6>C:9 JC9:G . H8:C6G>D ><  H=DL I=6I I=: 0:I
-GDE>8H LDJA9 CDI C::9 :M8:HH>K: 699>I>DC6A 8DCH:GK6I>DC <DK:GC6C8:
EDL:G >C DG9:G ID B6>CI6>C I=: 8JGG:CI >C8G:6H>C< 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 86G
7DC H:FJ:HIG6I>DC IG:C9H
H H=DLC 7N DJG BD9:A I=: EDH>I>K: 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 86G7DC H:
FJ:HIG6I>DC G:HJAIH JC9:G . L>I= HI67A: HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC K6A
J:H =6K: I=:>G DG><>C >C I=: HIGDC<:G 8DCH:GK6I>DC ;DG8:H 8DBE6G:9 ID
:8DCDB>8 A6C9 8A:6G>C< ;DG8:H >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H AI=DJ<= CDI :B
E>G>86AAN 699G:HH:9 >C DJG BD9:A N:I >CI:<G6I:9 >C I=: 8DC8:EIJ6A C6
IJG: D; $V:,208>= L: 6G<J: I=6I I=: 8DB7>C6I>DC D; 7DI= HIGDC< 7DI
IDBJE 6C9 IDE9DLC 8DCH:GK6I>DC ;DG8:H =6H 7::C I=: B6>C 9G>K:G D;
HJ8= DJI8DB:H DK:G I=: E6HI 9:869:H DIIDBJE ;DG8:H HI6GI:9 ID DG><
>C6I: >C I=: H I=GDJ<= I=: <GDL>C< EJ7A>8 @CDLA:9<: 6C9 6L6G:
C:HH D; I=: :CK>GDCB:CI6A HD8>6A 6C9 :8DCDB>8 H><C>;>86C8: D; L>A9:G
C:HH 6G:6H >C I=>H G:<>DC JG<  -=JH I=: A68@ D; HJ7HI6CI>6A :CK>
GDCB:CI6A BDK:B:CI I=6I =69 9DB>C6I:9 I=: 'DGI= *J::CHA6C9 HD8>:IN


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
Fig. 8. "BE68I D; <DK:GC6C8: 6C9 EDA>I>86A EDA>8N ;DG8:H DC 7>D9>K:GH>IN $V:,208>= 6C9 $V/,208>= G:;:G ID 8DCH:GK6I>DC 6C9 9:K:ADEB:CI ;DG8:H G:HE:8I>K:AN -=: =:6IB6E DC IDE H=DLH
7>D9>K:GH>IN K6G>6I>DC DK:G I>B: 8DCH>9:G>C< I=: B>C>BJB CJB7:G D; >C>I>6A $V/,208>= >: SK: ;DG 9>;;:G:CI >C>I>6A $V:,208>= >: K6AJ:H DC 16M>H -=: 7DIIDB =:6IB6E H=DLH 7>D9>
K:GH>IN K6G>6I>DC DK:G I>B: 8DCH>9:G>C< I=: B>C>BJB CJB7:G D; >C>I>6A $V:,208>= >: SK: ;DG 9>;;:G:CI >C>I>6A $V/,208>= (CAN G:HJAIH ;DG I=: %,) H8:C6G>D 6G: H=DLC 9J: ID I=>H H8:C6G>D
>C8AJ9>C< 9:K:ADEB:CI 6C9 EGDI:8I>DC ;DG8:H 8DBE:I>C< ;DG A6C9
H>C8: H:IIA:B:CI >C I=: H HI6GI:9 ID 8=6C<: DCH:GK6I>DC <GDJEH
AD86A 8>I>O:CH 6C9 EGDB>C:CI C6I>DC6A 6C9 >CI:GC6I>DC6A H8>:CI>HIH >C>I>
6I:9 6 9G>K: 76H:9 DC AD77N>C< 9>G:8I 68I>DC B6HH BD7>A>H6I>DC 6C9
EDA>I>86A :C9DGH:B:CIH 6<6>CHI I=: :8DCDB>8 ;DG8:H 9G>K>C< A6C9 8A:6G
>C< -=>H 7DIIDBJE BDK:B:CI L6H 67A: ID 8=6C<: EJ7A>8 6C9 <DK:GC
B:CI 6II>IJ9:H IDL6G9H EG:H:GK>C< I=: C6IJG6A :CK>GDCB:CI I=JH H=>;I
>C< 8DCH:GK6I>DC HIG6I:<>:H ;GDB 6 G:<>DC6AID 6 C6I>DC6A 6C9 6I I>B:H
6 <AD76A6G:C6 JG<  K:CIJ6AAN I=: JHIG6A>6C DK:GCB:CI 7:
86B: >CKDAK:9 >C I=: 9:8>H>DCB6@>C< EGD8:HH 6C9 I=: 86BE6><C 8JAB>
C6I:9 >C I=: A>HI>C< D; I=: 0:I -GDE>8H G6>C;DG:HIH DC I=: 0DGA9 !:G>I6<:
+:<>HI:G >C :8:B7:G  6H L:AA 6H I=: ;DGB6I>DC D; I=: 0:I -GDE>8H
&6C6<:B:CI JI=DG>IN -=>H A:69 ID I=: 7:<>CC>C< D; 6 L>9: HIGDC< 6C9
BJAI>A6N:G EDA>8N C:ILDG@ ;DG I=: EGDI:8I>DC D; G6>C;DG:HI 7>D9>K:GH>IN >C
I=: G:<>DC >: IDE9DLC 8DCH:GK6I>DC ;DG8: JGG:CIAN I=>H BJAI>A6N:G
EDA>8N C:ILDG@ :C67A:H T:M>7A: I6G<:I:9 G:HEDCH:H ID BJAI>EA: 6C9 DK:G
A6EE>C< I=G:6IH ID 7>D9>K:GH>IN !>AA :I 6A  !>AA :I 6A 67
-=: G:HJAI 8JGG:CIAN 6ABDHI  D; I=: 0:I -GDE>8H >H EGDI:8I:9 ,"-"
 B6>CAN G6>C;DG:HI =:AE>C< ID EGDI:8I 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 :C=6C8:
I=: HJEEAN D; BJAI>EA: , HJ8= 6H <AD76A 8A>B6I: G:<JA6I>DC 6>G FJ6A>IN
G:<JA6I>DC 6C9 8N8ADC: EGDI:8I>DC A6B<>G :I 6A 
"C 699>I>DC ID I=: 8DB7>C6I>DC D; 7DIIDBJE 6C9 IDE9DLC ;DG8:H
L: 6G<J: I=6I 8DCH:GK6I>DC >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H =6H 6AHD 7::C HIG:C<I=
:C:9 9J: ID 9>;;:G:CI ;68IDGH  =9.4,6:964>4.,6 –I>B7:G =6GK:HI>C<
;GDB I=: IGDE>86A G6>C;DG:HIH D; CDGI= *J::CHA6C9 8:6H:9 ;DAADL>C<
I=:>G >CH8G>EI>DC DC I=: 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: %>HI >C  /6C8A6N 
-=>H =:AE:9 G::A:8I>C< 6 C6I>DC6A <DK:GCB:CI I=6I IDD@ 69K6CI6<: D;
I=: 67DK:CDI:9 7DIIDBJE 69KD868N >: :CK>GDCB:CI6A 6L6G:C:HH
ID B6@: G:BDK>C< AD<<>C< ;GDB I=: 0:I -GDE>8H 6 KDI:L>CC:G C6
I>DC6AAN +:9S:A9  -=>H 9:8>H>DC L6H 8DCIGDK:GH>6A >C I=: H:CH:
I=6I I=: *J::CHA6C9 DK:GCB:CI L=>8= L6H G:HEDCH>7A: ;DG B6C6<
>C< AD<<>C< >C HI6I: DLC:9 G6>C;DG:HIH 6G<J:9 I=6I AD<<>C< >C I=>H G:
<>DC L6H =><=AN :;S8>:CI H:A:8I>K: 6C9 >CI:GB>II:CI 8DBE6G:9 ID IGDE>
86A ;DG:HIGN :AH:L=:G: –L>I= ADL H86A: 9>HIJG76C8:H H>B>A6G ID 8N8ADC:
96B6<:H ID L=>8= I=: :8DHNHI:B >H =>HIDG>86AAN 696EI:9 '>8=DAHDC :I
6A  +:<6G9A:HH D; L=:I=:G >BEDH>I>DC D; G6>C;DG:HI 8DCH:GK6I>DC
7N I=: JHIG6A>6C DK:GCB:CI L6H EDH>I>K: DG C:<6I>K: HJEEDGI ;DG
8DCH:GK6I>DC 7N EDA>I>8>6CH :K:C >; >I L6H ;DG I=:>G DLC EDA>I>86A 7:C
:SI L6H 6C >BEDGI6CI ;68IDG :C=6C8>C< :CK>GDCB:CI6A HJHI6>C67>A>IN
>C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H  02,6 –JC9:G I=: JHIG6A>6C DCHI>IJI>DC I=:
C6I>DC6A <DK:GCB:CI 86C DK:GG>9: I=: ,I6I: DK:GCB:CIH DK:G B6I
I:GH I>:9 ID >CI:GC6I>DC6A IG:6I>:H HJ8= 6H I=: 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: DCK:C
I>DC AI=DJ<= I=: B6C6<:B:CI D; I=: G:<>DC >IH:A; >H 6 B6II:G ;DG I=:
*J::CHA6C9 DK:GCB:CI I=: JHIG6A>6C DK:GCB:CI 86C HIDE :CK>GDC
B:CI6AAN JCHJHI6>C67A: 68I>K>I>:H HJ8= 6H I=: AD<<>C< D; I=: 0:I -GDE
>8H ;DG:HIH  8@4<98708>,6=.408>4E. –I=: G:<>DC >H I=: C9 BDHI >G
G:EA68:67A: 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: 6G:6 <AD76AAN >C I:GBH D; >IH 7>DI6 >C8AJ9
>C< G:BC6CIH D; DC9L6C6 I=6I 6G: CDI ;DJC9 :AH:L=:G: *J::CHA6C9
DK:GCB:CI  :86JH: I=: 0:I -GDE>8H >H 6 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: ,>I:
>C 8DCIG6HI ID BDHI IGDE>86A 6G:6H AD86I:9 >C 9:K:ADE>C< 8DJCIG>:H 6C9
6 8DCH:GK6I>DC =DIHEDI >I >H :6H>:G ID ?JHI>;N 6C9 G:8:>K: HJEEDGI L>I=
G:<6G9 ID 8DCH:GK6I>DC  .98974. –I=: IGDE>86A ;DG:HIH 6G: 6GDJC9
IL:CIN I>B:H A:HH EGD9J8I>K: D; I>B7:G I=6C I:BE:G6I: ;DG:HIH L=:G:
I=: A6II:G EGDK>9:H I=: K6HI B6?DG>IN D; I=: LDGA9H >C9JHIG>6A LDD9
>:  (  ,:9?D 6C9 ,>BEHDC  JGI=:GBDG: L>I=
I=: 0DGA9 !:G>I6<: EGDI:8I>DC >C  86B: I=: 76CC>C< D; AD<<>C<
L>I=>C I=: CDL EGDI:8I:9 ;DG:HIH /6C8A6N  L=:G: ID96N DCAN
G:9J8:9 ;DG:HI 8A:6G>C< 6C9 H:A:8I>K: =6GK:HI>C< 8DCI>CJ:H DC EG>K6I:
A6C9 -=JH I>B7:G EGD9J8I>DC ;GDB ;DG:HIH >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H >H 6 G:A6
I>K:AN JC8DBE:I>I>K: :8DCDB>8 JH: /6A:CI>C: 6C9 !>AA  :H>9:H
I=>H I=: :8DIDJG>HB >C9JHIGN >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H –L=>8= >H B6@>C<
6 A6G<: 8DCIG>7JI>DC ID I=: C6I>DC6A :8DCDBN 0--  –>H 8JG
G:CIAN =:AE>C< ID 9>B>C>H= I=: >CTJ:C8: 6C9 C::9 D; 6<G>8JAIJG: 6C9
I>B7:G >C9JHIG>:H 6H :8DCDB>8 9G>K:GH D; I=: 0:I -GDE>8H :H>9:H I=>H
JHIG6A>6 >H 6 G>8= 9:K:ADE:9 8DJCIGN L=>8= IG6CHA6I:H >CID BDG: ;JC9
>C< 6AAD86I:9 ;DG 8DCH:GK6I>DC EGD<G6BB:H –8DBE6G:9 ID 9:K:ADE>C<
8DJCIG>:H L=>8= 6G: BDG: ;D8JH:9 DC HDAK>C< EDK:GIN 6C9 HD8>6A >HHJ:H
:99>6 :I 6A  !>AA :I 6A   9@0<8,8.0 –EJ7A>8 <DK:G
C6C8: >C JHIG6A>6 8DBE6G:9 ID DI=:G 8DJCIG>:H >C ,DJI=:6HI H>6 >H
8JGG:CIAN 9D>C< 7:II:G L>I= G:<6G9 ID 9>;;:G:CI >C9>86IDGH HJ8= 6H 8DG
GJEI>DC 6C9 EDDG <DK:GC6C8: ,D9=> :I 6A  DJCIG>:H L>I= <DK
:GCB:CIH I=6I =6K: ADL K6AJ:H ;DG 8DCK:CI>DC6A >C9>86IDGH :< 8DGGJE


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
I>DC 8DCIGDA FJ6A>IN EJ7A>8 H:GK>8:H 6G: BDG: A>@:AN ID :ME:G>:C8: I=:
HE6I>6A :ME6CH>DC D; 6<G>8JAIJG: L=>A: I=DH: <DK:GCB:CIH L>I= =><=
FJ6A>IN :CK>GDCB:CI6A <DK:GC6C8: :< G:9J8: :CK>GDCB:CI6A HIG:HH >C
8G:6H: :8DHNHI:B K>I6A>IN <:C:G6AAN H=DL 6<G>8JAIJG6A HE6I>6A 8DCIG68
I>DC :99>6 :I 6A  JGI=:GBDG: EJ7A>8 <DK:GC6C8: >C JHIG6A>6
>H BDG: G:HEDCH>K: ID EJ7A>8 DE>C>DC L=>8= 8JGG:CIAN HJEEDGIH 6C9 G:
FJ>G:H I=: HJHI6>C67A: JH: D; C6IJG6A 86E>I6A >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H  09
2<,:34.,6 –JHIG6A>6 =6H CD HE6I>6A 8DCT>8IH L>I= C:><=7DJG>C< 8DJCIG>:H
>C I:GBH D; A6C9H86E: B6C6<:B:CI 6C9 EGDI:8I:9 6G:6 8G:6I>DC -=JH
I=: *J::CHA6C9 DK:GCB:CI 86C B6C6<: I=: 0:I -GDE>8H L>I=DJI =6K
>C< ID 9:6A L>I= EDI:CI>6A 8GDHHC6I>DC6A DG >CI:GC6I>DC6A 8DCT>8IH
-=:H: ;68IDGH =6K: 8G:6I:9 6 8DCI:MI >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H L=:G: 8DC
H:GK6I>DC >H EG>DG>I>O:9 DK:G A6C9 8A:6G>C< ;DG 6<G>8JAIJG: 1:I G:<6G9A:HH
D; I=: EDH>I>K: H=DGI 6C9 B:9>JBI:GB G:HJAIH D7I6>C:9 ;DG 7>D9>K:G
H>IN 6C9 8DCH:GK6I>DC ><H  6C9  CD 6HHJBEI>DCH H=DJA9 7: B69:
6H ;DG ADC<I:GB H8:C6G>DH -=>H >H HJEEDGI:9 7N I=: E6G6AA:A G:HJAIH ID
7>D9>K:GH>IN D7I6>C:9 >C DJG BD9:A ;DG :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I ><  0=>A:
I=: 7>D9>K:GH>IN S<JG: H=DLH I=: K6G>6I>DC D; 8JGG:CI <GDHH 7>D9>K:G
H>IN K6AJ:H :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I H=DLH I=: ;JIJG: :MI>C8I>DC D; HE:8>:H 9J:
ID :K:CIH >C I=: E6HI –L=>8= D88JGH 7:86JH: D; I>B: 9:A6NH 7:IL::C
>BE68IH DC HE:8>:H 6C9 I=: HE:8>:H JAI>B6I: 9>H6EE:6G6C8: #68@HDC
6C9 ,6M  -=JH :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I EGDK>9:H @:N >C;DGB6I>DC 67DJI
I=: :FJ>A>7G>JB 7>D9>K:GH>IN >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H L=>8= G:;:GH ID I=: ;J
IJG: ADC<I:GB C:I 7>D9>K:GH>IN K6AJ:H DC8: :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I G:68=:H
O:GD 6C9 I=: HNHI:B 8DB:H >CID :FJ>A>7G>JB#68@HDC 6C9 ,6M 
-=: 9>;;:G:C8: 7:IL::C I=: 8JGG:CI <GDHH 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 I=: :FJ>
A>7G>JB C:I 7>D9>K:GH>IN >H E6GI>8JA6GAN >BEDGI6CI JC9:G I=: %,) H8:
C6G>D L=:G: I=: H=DGI I:GB EDH>I>K:HI:69N 7>D9>K:GH>IN G:HJAIH 8DJA9
7:8DB: C:<6I>K: >C I=: ADC<I:GB 9J: ID I=: >C8G:6H>C< :MI>C8I>DC 9:7I
H:: ><  H 6 G:HJAI L: 6G<J: I=6I 6CN H=DGI 6C9 B:9>JBI:GB EDH
>I>K: 7>D9>K:GH>IN K6AJ:H >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H C::9 ID 7: 8DCH>9:G:9 L>I=
86JI>DC 9J: ID EDI:CI>6A C:<6I>K: ADC<I:GB 8DC8AJH>DCH JGI=:GBDG:
I=: 8G:6I>DC D; C:L EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H 8DJA9 7: 8JG
G:CIAN L:6@:C>C< EGDI:8I>DC ;DG8:H :AH:L=:G: >C JHIG6A>6 :HE:8>6AAN >C
*J::CHA6C9 –L=:G: DCAN  D; A6C9 >H 8JGG:CIAN EGDI:8I:9 ;6G 7:
ADL I=:  HI6I:9 >C I=: >8=> >D9>K:GH>IN -6G<:I  -=>H 8DJA9 7:
G:A6I:9 ID I=: HD86AA:9 EJ7A>8 7>D9>K:GH>IN 9>H8DJGH: >BE68IH :MEADG:9
7N !>AA :I 6A 7 -=>H 8DC8:EI H6NH I=6I HD8>:IN 6HHD8>6I:H >C8G:6H:H
>C EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H L>I= >C8G:6H>C< EGD8DCH:GK6I>DC 8DBBJC>IN H:CI>
B:CIH I=JH A:69>C< ID 6 EJ7A>8 E:G8:EI>DC I=6I BDG: 7>D9>K:GH>IN >H 7:
>C< EGDI:8I:9 :< >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H 6C9 I=:G:7N G:9J8>C< EJ7A>8 9>H
8DJGH: 67DJI I=: G>H@H D; 7>D9>K:GH>IN ADHH :AH:L=:G: :< >C I=: G:HI
D; *J::CHA6C9JHIG6A>6 -=JH G6I=:G I=6C :C=6C8>C< EGD8DCH:GK6I>DC
8DBBJC>IN H:CI>B:CIH >C I=: G:HI D; I=: 8DJCIGN 8G:6I>DC D; EGDI:8I:9
6G:6H >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H 8DJA9 7: 9>B>C>H=>C< I=:B !>AA :I 6A 7
(K:G6AA L: 6G<J: I=6I I=: EDH>I>K: G:HJAIH D7I6>C:9 JC9:G DJG .
H8:C6G>D ;DG I=: 0:I -GDE>8H 86CCDI 7: 8DBE6G:9 ID . H8:C6G>DH >C
DI=:G IGDE>86A 6G:6H -=>H >H 7:86JH: I=: 0:I -GDE>8H EDHH:HH:H >IH DLC
E6GI>8JA6G HD8>D:8DCDB>8 :CK>GDCB:CI6A 8JAIJG6A 6C9 EDA>I>86A 8=6G
68I:G>HI>8H JGI=:GBDG: . H8:C6G>DH JC9:G<D E:G>D9H D; CDCA>C:6G
6C9 67GJEI 8=6C<:H I=JH 9>;;:G>C< ;GDB EA68: ID EA68: &JAA:G 
6C9 A>B>I>C< I=: EG:9>8I67>A>IN 6C9 :MIG6EDA6I>DC D; A6C9HNHI:BH J:
ID I=>H 9:8>9>C< L=>8= 6EEGD68= %,) DG %,! >H BDG: HJHI6>C67A: ;DG 6
IGDE>86A ,, >H 9>;S8JAI 8DCH>9:G>C< I=: 8=6AA:C<>C< <D6A D; B::I>C< 9>;
;:G:CI I6G<:IH JC9:G H>C<A: %,) 6C9 %,! H8:C6G>DH %6L :I 6A  "C
;68I I=: 9:76I: DK:G %,) DG %,! 8DJA9 7: 7AJGG:9 7N I=: 9>;;:G>C< HE6
I>6A H86A:H 8DCH>9:G:9 @GDDH :I 6A  !:C8: HDB: H8=DA6GH HJ<
<:HI DI=:G 6EEGD68=:H HJ8= 6H 6 B>MIJG: D; %,! L>I= %,)  DG9DC :I
6A  +:CL>8@ 6C9 ,8=:AA=DGC  DG BJAI>EA:H86A: A6C9 HE6G>C<
@GDDH :I 6A  6H EDI:CI>6A E6I=L6NH ID DK:G8DB: I=: %,) K:GHJH
%,! 9>8=DIDBN +:CL>8@ 6C9 ,8=:AA=DGC 
5. Conclusions
-=: I6@: =DB:B:HH6<: D; I=>H 6GI>8A: >H ILD;DA9
 -=: 8JGG:CI . 8DCI:MI >C I=: ;DG:HI:9 ,, D; I=: 0:I -GDE
>8H G:<>DC >H =:AE>C< ID G:8DC8>A: 7>D9>K:GH>IN 8DCH:GK6I>DC 8A>B6I:
8=6C<: B>I><6I>DC 6C9 HJ<6G86C: EGD9J8I>DC -=>H >H 9J: ID I=:
HIGDC<:G 8DCH:GK6I>DC ;DG8:H 8DBE6G:9 ID :8DCDB>8 DC:H L=>8=
8DJA9 =6K: >IH DG><>C >C I=: 8DB7>C6I>DC 6C9 >CI:<G6I>DC D; 7DI
IDBJE 6C9 IDE9DLC 8DCH:GK6I>DC ;DG8:H DK:G I=: A6HI 9:869:H 6H
L:AA 6H ;JGI=:G HD8>DEDA>I>86A A:<6A :CK>GDCB:CI6AH8>:CI>S8 :8D
CDB>8 <DK:GC6C8: 6C9 <:D<G6E=>86A ;68IDGH -=>H >H 6C DJIHI6C9>C<
68=>:K:B:CI ;DG 6 IGDE>86A G:<>DC 8DCH>9:G>C< I=6I BDHI D; I=:B
6G: 8=6G68I:G>O:9 ;DG =6K>C< HIGDC<:G :8DCDB>8 A6C9 8A:6G>C< ;DG8:H
8DBE6G:9 ID 8DCH:GK6I>DC I=JH :C=6C8>C< 7>D9>K:GH>IN ADHH =67>I6I
9:HIGJ8I>DC 8A>B6I: 8=6C<: 6C9 DI=:G :CK>GDCB:CI6A >HHJ:H
 :8>9>C< 7:IL::C %,) DG %,! 6EEGD68=:H 86CCDI 7: 6C :>I=:GDG
EGDEDH>I>DC -=JH 6 B>MIJG: D; H=6G>C< 6C9 HE6G>C< L>AA 7: >C DG9:G
ID B::I 8DCH:GK6I>DC <D6AH >C 6 LDGA9 L>I= 6 <GDL>C< 9:B6C9 ;DG
9>;;:G:CI , -GDE>86A ,, 6G: 8DBEA:M 9NC6B>8 6C9 CDCA>C:6G HNH
I:BH I=:G:;DG: I=: 6INE>86A . 8DCI:MI >C I=: 0:I -GDE>8H 86CCDI
7: :MIG6EDA6I:9 CDG 8DBE6G:9 ID . H8:C6G>DH ;GDB DI=:G IGDE>
86A 6G:6H 6H I=: 0:I -GDE>8H EDHH:HH:H >IH DLC E6GI>8JA6G HD8>D:8D
CDB>8 :CK>GDCB:CI6A 8JAIJG6A 6C9 EDA>I>86A 8DCI:MI -=JH :68= <:
D<G6E=>8 8DCI:MI 6C9 H:I D; HI6@:=DA9:GH L>AA C::9 ID :MEADG: 6AI:G
C6I>K: HJHI6>C67A: HDAJI>DCH 76H:9 DC I=:>G DLC AD86A 6C9 G:<>DC6A
8=6G68I:G>HI>8H 'DC:I=:A:HH I=: %,) K:GHJH %,! ;G6B:LDG@ =6H I=:
EDI:CI>6A ID B::I BJAI>EA: <D6AH I=6I L=:C >CI:<G6I:9 L>I=>C HE6
I>6AAN :MEA>8>I BD9:AH 86C 7: JH:9 ID :MEADG: HJHI6>C67A: HDAJI>DCH
;DG 8DBEA:M ,,
Funding
-=>H G:H:6G8= 9>9 CDI G:8:>K: 6CN HE:8>S8 <G6CI ;GDB ;JC9>C< 6<:C
8>:H >C I=: EJ7A>8 8DBB:G8>6A DG CDI;DGEGDSI H:8IDGH
Declarations of interest
'DC:
Appendix A. Supplementary data
,JEEA:B:CI6GN 96I6 ID I=>H 6GI>8A: 86C 7: ;DJC9 DCA>C: 6I =IIEH
9D>DG<??:CKB6C
References
%.&) –JHIG6A>6C DAA67DG6I>K: %6C9JH: 6C9 &6C6<:B:CI )GD<G6B )6GIC:GH 
-=: JHIG6A>6C %6C9JH: 6C9 &6C6<:B:CI A6HH>S86I>DC 3DCA>C:4 K6>A67A: 6I =IIE
LLL6<G>8JAIJG:<DK6J676G:H68AJBED8JB:CIH%.&K5
!6C97DD@:9C)6GI5.E96I:(8ID7:GE9; 88:HH:9  &6G8= 
<G>JIJG:H  ,J<6G86C:DK:GK>:L 3(CA>C:4 K6>A67A: 6I =IIELLL6<G>;JIJG:H
8DB6J;6GB9>K:GH>INHJ<6G86C:88:HH:9  &6G8= 
A6B<>G & :I 6A  HH:HH>C< G:<JA6I>C< 6C9 EGDK>H>DC>C< :8DHNHI:B H:GK>8:H >C 6
8DCIG6HI>C< IGDE>86A ;DG:HI A6C9H86E: 8DA "C9>86I  –
C<:AH:C  9  &DK>C< =:69 L>I= + "HHJ:H (EI>DCH 6C9 "BEA>86I>DCH
"(+ D<DG "C9DC:H>6
C % :I 6A  <:CI 76H:9 BD9:AA>C< >C 8DJEA:9 =JB6C 6C9 C6IJG6A HNHI:BH
!', A:HHDCH ;GDB 6 8DBE6G6I>K: 6C6ANH>H CC HHD8 B :D<G  
–
6AAH   0=N -GDE>86A DJCIG>:H G: .C9:G9:K:ADE:9 -=: '6I>DC6A JG:6J D; 8D
CDB>8 +:H:6G8= 3DCA>C:4 K6>A67A: 6I =IIELLLC7:GDG<9><:HI?JCL
=IBA88:HH:9  #JAN 
JG< &   6>GCH 6C9 6G 'DGI= CK>GDCB:CI :CI:G  !DL I=: 0:I -GDE
>8H 06H 0DC –' 3DCA>C:4 K6>A67A: 6I =IIE86;C:8DG<6J67DJI86;C:8
=DLI=:L:IIGDE>8HL6HLDC88:HH:9  #6CJ6GN 
:99>6 &  :I 6A  DK:GC6C8: 6<G>8JAIJG6A >CI:CH>S86I>DC 6C9 A6C9 HE6G>C< >C
IGDE>86A HDJI= B:G>86 )GD8 '6IA 869 ,8> . ,    –


UNCORRECTED PROOF
98D,60D&0/480>,6 9?<8,6918@4<98708>,6!,8,20708> BBB  BBBBBB
:A>D  :I 6A  &D9:A>C< A6C9 JH: 9:8>H>DCH L>I= 6N:H>6C C:ILDG@H HE6I>6AAN
:MEA>8>I 6C6ANH>H D; 9G>K>C< ;DG8:H DC A6C9 JH: 8=6C<: CK>GDC &D9:A ,D;IL 
–
=6GC>6@   6N:H>6C C:ILDG@H L>I=DJI I:6GH " &6<   –
JGI>H  :I 6A  -=: <G:6I :ME:G>B:CI L>I= 9:KDAK:9 '+& <DK:GC6C8: A:HHDCH ;GDB
8DBBJC>IN :C<6<:B:CI >C JHIG6A>6 6C9 ':L 2:6A6C9 H>C8: I=: H JHIG6A6H #
CK>GDC &6C6<   –
  :E6GIB:CI D; <G>8JAIJG: 6C9 >H=:G>:H ,I6I: D; *J::CHA6C9  %6C9JH: &6E
E>C< –0:I -GDE>8H 3B6E4 ,86A: D;  K6>A67A: 6I “*J::CHA6C9 ,E6I>6A 6I
6AD<J: –*,E6I>6A” %6HI JE96I:9 'DK:B7:G  =IIEFA9HE6I>6A>C;DGB6I>DCFA9
<DK6J86I6AD<J: 88:HH:9 (8I 
0!  6N:H>6C ':ILDG@H 6 J>9: ;DG -=:>G EEA>86I>DC >C '6IJG6A +:HDJG8:
&6C6<:B:CI 6C9 )DA>8N -:8=C>86A +:EDGI CD  :E6GIB:CI D; I=: CK>GDCB:CI
06I:G !:G>I6<: 6C9 I=: GIH JHIG6A>6C DK:GCB:CI
,"-"  %6C9JH: ,JBB6GN – 0:I -GDE>8H :E6GIB:CI D; ,8>:C8: "C
;DGB6I>DC -:8=CDAD<N 6C9 "CCDK6I>DC *J::CHA6C9 DK:GCB:CI 3DCA>C:4 K6>A67A:
6I =IIEHEJ7A>86I>DCHFA9<DK6J96I6H:IA6C9JH:HJBB6GNG:HDJG8:
7;9::8;:88:HH:9  (8ID7:G 
@GDDH # :I 6A  ,E6G>C< A6C9 ;DG 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6I BJAI>EA: HE6I>6A H86A:H GDCI 8DA
KDA 3
( –DD9 6C9 <G>8JAIJG: (G<6C>O6I>DC D; I=: .C>I:9 '6I>DCH  -=: ,I6I: D; DD9
6C9 <G>8JAIJG: <G>8JAIJG: ,:G>:H 
:9DGDU '/ :I 6A  +69>86AAN G:I=>C@>C< 6<G>8JAIJG: ;DG I=: HI 8:CIJGN ,8>:C8:
  –
:CC>C< -  =6AA:C<:H 6C9 (EEDGIJC>I>:H ;DG I=: 0DGA9H DG:HIH >C I=: ,I :C
IJGN SGHI :9H ,EG>C<:G DG9G:8=I ':I=:GA6C9H
>A6IDK6 - /:G7JG< )! )6G@:G  ,I6CC6G9   ,E6I>6A 6<:CI76H:9 BD9:AH
;DG HD8>D:8DAD<>86A HNHI:BH 8=6AA:C<:H 6C9 EGDHE:8IH CK>GDC &D9:A ,D;IL  
–
>H8=:G # :I 6A  %6C9 HE6G>C< K:GHJH A6C9 H=6G>C< BDK>C< ;DGL6G9 DCH:GK %:II
  –
ANK7?:G<   >K: B>HJC9:GHI6C9>C<H 67DJI 86H:HIJ9N G:H:6G8= *J6A "CF  
–
DA:N # :I 6A  AD76A 8DCH:FJ:C8:H D; A6C9JH: ,8>:C8:   –
:'":  ,&"%  G6E=>86A ':ILDG@ "CI:G;68: :'":  ,&"% 3DCA>C:4K6>A67A: 6I
=IIELLL76N:H;JH>DC8DB 88:HH:9 #JA 
>AA ) :I 6A  &:I=D9H D; 96I6 8DAA:8I>DC >C FJ6A>I6I>K: G:H:6G8= >CI:GK>:LH 6C9 ;D
8JH <GDJEH G :CI #  –
DCO6A:O+:9>C # :I 6A  ,E6I>6A 6N:H>6C 7:A>:; C:ILDG@H 6H 6 EA6CC>C< 9:8>H>DC
IDDA ;DG B6EE>C< :8DHNHI:B H:GK>8:H IG69:DUH DC ;DG:HI:9 A6C9H86E:H CK>GDC +:H
  –
DCO6A:O+:9>C # :I 6A  "IH CDI I=: L=6I 7JI I=: =DL :MEADG>C< I=: GDA: D; 9:7I
>C C6IJG6A G:HDJG8: JCHJHI6>C67>A>IN )AD, (C:   :
DG9DC "# :I 6A  DD9 )GD9J8I>DC 6C9 '6IJG: DCH:GK6I>DC =6AA:C<:H 6C9 ,DAJ
I>DCH SGHI :9 -6NADG 6C9 G6C8>H ADG:C8:
G::C + :I 6A  6GB>C< 6C9 I=: ;6I: D; L>A9 C6IJG: ,8>:C8:  –
!6GG>HDC ) :I 6A  %>C@6<:H 7:IL::C 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6IIG>7JI:H 6C9 :8DHNHI:B H:G
K>8:H 6 HNHI:B6I>8 G:K>:L 8DHNHI ,:GK  –
!>AA + :I 6A  96EI>K: 8DBBJC>IN76H:9 7>D9>K:GH>IN 8DCH:GK6I>DC >C JHIG6A>6H
IGDE>86A G6>C;DG:HIH CK>GDC DCH:GK   –
!>AA + :I 6A  -=: B6IJG6I>DC D; 7>D9>K:GH>IN 6H 6 <AD76A HD8>6A:8DAD<>86A >HHJ: 6C9
>BEA>86I>DCH ;DG ;JIJG: 7>D9>K:GH>IN H8>:C8: 6C9 EDA>8N JIJG:H  –
!>AA + :I 6A 6 DAA67DG6I>DC BD7>A>H:H >CHI>IJI>DCH L>I= H86A:9:E:C9:CI 8DBE6G6
I>K: 69K6CI6<: >C A6C9H86E:H86A: 8DCH:GK6I>DC CK>GDC ,8> )DA  –
!>AA + :I 6A 7 0=N 7>D9>K:GH>IN 9:8A>C:H 6H EGDI:8I:9 6G:6H >C8G:6H: I=: :;;:8I
D; I=: EDL:G D; <DK:GC6C8: G:<>B:H DC HJHI6>C67A: A6C9H86E:H ,JHI6>C ,8>  
–
!DUB6CC & :I 6A  -=: >BE68I D; 8DCH:GK6I>DC DC I=: HI6IJH D; I=: LDGA9H K:GI:
7G6I:H ,8>:C8:   –
!JAB: & :I 6A  DCH:GK>C< I=: 7>G9H D; .<6C96H 76C6C6–8D;;:: 6G8 A6C9 HE6G
>C< 6C9 A6C9 H=6G>C< 8DBE6G:9 )AD, (C:  
#68@HDC ,- ,6M   6A6C8>C< 7>D9>K:GH>IN >C 6 8=6C<>C< :CK>GDCB:CI :MI>C8
I>DC 9:7I >BB><G6I>DC 8G:9>I 6C9 HE:8>:H IJGCDK:G -G:C9H 8DA KDA  –
$>IO>C<:G #  -=: B:I=D9DAD<N D; ;D8JH <GDJEH I=: >BEDGI6C8: D; >CI:G68I>DC 7:
IL::C G:H:6G8= E6GI>8>E6CIH ,D8 !:6AI= "AAC  –
$D8676H / G6<>8:K>8 ,  6N:H>6C C:ILDG@H 6C9 6<:CI76H:9 BD9:A>C< 6EEGD68=
;DG JG76C A6C9JH: 6C9 EDEJA6I>DC 9:CH>IN 8=6C<: 6 ', BD9:A # :D<G ,NHI 
 –
%6L  :I 6A  :II:G A6C9JH: 6AAD86I>DC DJIE:G;DGBH A6C9 HE6G>C< 6C9 A6C9 H=6G
>C< 6EEGD68=:H ID 8DCH:GK6I>DC >C :CIG6A $6A>B6CI6C "C9DC:H>6 >DA DCH:GK 
–
%NC6B - :I 6A  96EI>C< H8>:C8: ID 696EI>K: B6C6<:GH HE>9:G<G6BH 7:A>:; BD9
:AH 6C9 BJAI>6<:CI HNHI:BH BD9:A>C< DCH:GK 8DA   
&6II=:LH + :I 6A  <:CI76H:9 A6C9JH: BD9:AH 6 G:K>:L D; 6EEA>86I>DCH
%6C9H8 8DA   –
&DG<6C %  -=: D8JH GDJE J>9: DD@ ,6<: )J7A>86I>DCH %DC9DC
&JAA:G   +:<>B: H=>;IH A>B>I I=: EG:9>8I67>A>IN D; A6C9HNHI:B 8=6C<: AD76A CK
>GDC =6C<:   –
':AA:B6C  :I 6A  -=: CK>GDCB:CI6A DD9 G>H>H I=: CK>GDCB:CIH +DA: >C
K:GI>C< JIJG: DD9 G>H:H  .') +6E>9 +:HEDCH: HH:HHB:CI .C>I:9 '6I>DCH C
K>GDCB:CI )GD<G6B +"G:C96A G:C96A 'DGL6N
'>8=DAHDC " :I 6A  >HIJG76C8: G:<>B:H >C 'DGI= *J::CHA6C9 G6>C ;DG:HIH 6
G::K6AJ6I>DC D; I=:>G G:A6I>DCH=>E ID HE:8>:H G>8=C:HH 6C9 9>K:GH>IN JHI # 8DA 
–
(,JAA>K6C  :I 6A  ,IG6I:<>8 9>G:8I>DCH ;DG 6<:CI76H:9 BD9:AA>C< 6KD>9>C< I=:
10' HNC9GDB: # %6C9 .H: ,8>   –
):G:O&>C6C6   "BEGDK>C< :8DHNHI:B H:GK>8:H BD9:AA>C< >CH><=IH ;GDB 6 6N:H>6C
C:ILDG@ IDDAH G:K>:L CK>GDC &D9:A ,D;IL  –
)=6A6C  :I 6A  +:8DC8>A>C< ;DD9 EGD9J8I>DC 6C9 7>D9>K:GH>IN 8DCH:GK6I>DC A6C9
H=6G>C< 6C9 A6C9 HE6G>C< 8DBE6G:9 ,8>:C8:  –
)DA=>AA #  :I 6A  <:CI76H:9 BD9:AA>C< D; A6C9JH: :;;:8IH DC :8DHNHI:B EGD8:HH:H
6C9 H:GK>8:H # %6C9 .H: ,8>  – –
*J::CHA6C9 DK:GCB:CI –,I6I: D; I=: CK>GDCB:CI  0:I -GDE>8H D; *J::CHA6C9
0DGA9 !:G>I6<: '6IJG6A G>I:G>6 3DCA>C:4 K6>A67A: 6I =IIEHLLL:=EFA9<DK6J
HI6I:D;I=::CK>GDCB:CISC9>C<>988:HH:9  &6G8= 
+:9S:A9   CDGI= *J::CHA6C9H IGDE>86A G6>C;DG:HIH I=: LDGA9 =:G>I6<: 8DCIGDK:GHN
"C "C )6AD & &:GN  9H ,JHI6>C67A: DG:HIGN =6AA:C<:H ;DG :K:ADE>C< DJC
IG>:H CK>GDCB:CI6A ,8>:C8: 6C9 -:8=CDAD<N %>7G6GN KDA  ,EG>C<:G DG9G:8=I
+:CL>8@  ,8=:AA=DGC '   E:GHE:8I>K: DC A6C9 HE6G>C< K:GHJH A6C9 H=6G>C< "C
CH:AA  >7HDC  ,6AI  9H %:6GC>C< ;GDB <G>:CK>GDCB:CI ,8=:B:H >C JH
IG6A>6 "CK:HI>C< >C >D9>K:GH>IN 6C9 (I=:G 8DHNHI:B ,:GK>8:H DC 6GBH '1 )G:HH
6C7:GG6 - JHIG6A>6
,8=JAO: # :I 6A  <:CI76H:9 BD9:AA>C< D; HD8>6A:8DAD<>86A HNHI:BH 68=>:K:B:CI
8=6AA:C<:H 6C9 6 L6N ;DGL6G9 #,,,   
,:9?D + ,>BEHDC +  -6G>U %>7:G6A>O6I>DC 0DD9 -G69: ADLH 6C9 AD76A
DG:HIH –>H8JHH>DC )6E:G  +:HDJG8:H ;DG I=: JIJG: 06H=>C<IDC 
,B>I= +" :I 6A  (E:G6I>DC6A>H>C< :8DHNHI:B H:GK>8: 6HH:HHB:CI >C 6N:H>6C 7:A>:;
C:ILDG@H ME:G>:C8:H L>I=>C I=: (E:C', EGD?:8I 8DHNHI ,:GK   –
,D9=> ', :I 6A  -=: HI6I: 6C9 8DCH:GK6I>DC D; ,DJI=:6HI H>6C 7>D9>K:GH>IN >D
9>K:GH DCH:GK  –
,JC 2 &PAA:G    ;G6B:LDG@ ;DG BD9:AA>C< E6NB:CIH ;DG :8DHNHI:B H:GK>8:H
L>I= 6<:CI76H:9 BD9:AH 6N:H>6C 7:A>:; C:ILDG@H 6C9 DE>C>DC 9NC6B>8H BD9:AH C
K>GDC &D9:A ,D;IL CK>GDC &D9:A ,D;IL  –
-:9:H8D ) :I 6A  HI>B6I>C< =DL B6CN JC9:H8G>7:9 HE:8>:H =6K: <DC: :MI>C8I
DCH:GK >DA   –
I:C GD:@:  :I 6A  0=>8= H:CH>I>K>IN 6C6ANH>H B:I=D9 H=DJA9 " JH: ;DG BN
6<:CI76H:9 BD9:A # GI>; ,D8 ,D8 ,>BJA6I   
.'  .C>I:9 C6I>DCH ;G6B:LDG@ 8DCK:CI>DC DC 8A>B6I: 8=6C<: 9G6;I 9:8>H>DC
)  "C DC;:G:C8: D; I=: )6GI>:H I= ,:HH>DC – :8:B7:G DE:C=6<:C
/6A:CI>C: ), !>AA +  -=: :HI67A>H=B:CI D; 6 LDGA9 =:G>I6<: 6G:6 "C ,IDG@ '
-JGIDC ,& 9H %>K>C< >C 6 NC6B>8 -GDE>86A DG:HI %6C9H86E: A68@L:AA )J7
A>H=>C< (M;DG9 EE –
/6C8A6N #$  -GDE>86A G6>C;DG:HI AD<<>C< >C CDGI= *J::CHA6C9 L6H >I HJHI6>C67A:
CC DG   –
/6C8A6N #$  DCIG6HIH 7:IL::C 7>DAD<>86AAN76H:9 EGD8:HH BD9:AH 6C9 B6C6<:
B:CIDG>:CI:9 <GDLI= 6C9 N>:A9 BD9:AH ,JHI6>C67A: I>B7:G =6GK:HI>C< H>BJA6I>DC
HIJ9>:H >C I=: IGDE>86A G6>C;DG:HIH D; CDGI= *J::CHA6C9 DG 8DA &6C6<  –
/:CI:G ( :I 6A  ,>MI::C N:6GH D; 8=6C<: >C I=: <AD76A I:GG:HIG>6A =JB6C ;DDIEG>CI
6C9 >BEA>86I>DCH ;DG 7>D9>K:GH>IN 8DCH:GK6I>DC '6I DBBJC  
06I:G=DJH: # :I 6A   ,8>:CI>S8 DCH:CHJH ,I6I:B:CI %6C9 .H: "BE68IH DC
G:6I 6GG>:G +::; 06I:G *J6A>IN 6C9 8DHNHI:B DC9>I>DC G>H76C: JHIG6A>6 -=:
,I6I: D; *J::CHA6C9
0> #  %6C9H86E: HJHI6>C67>A>IN H8>:C8: :8DHNHI:B H:GK>8:H 6C9 =JB6C L:AA7:>C<
>C 8=6C<>C< A6C9H86E:H %6C9H8 8DA   –
0>A:CH@N .  ':IAD<D :CI:G ;DG DCC:8I:9 %:6GC>C< 6C9 DBEJI:G76H:9 &D9:A
>C< 'DGI=L:HI:GC .C>K:GH>IN K6CHIDC =IIE88ACDGI=L:HI:GC:9JC:IAD<D
0>AA>6BH $# :I 6A  DG:HIH D; :6HI JHIG6A>6 I=: I= 7>D9>K:GH>IN =DIHEDI "C
268=DH G6C@  =G>HI>6C !67:A #6C 9H >D9>K:GH>IN !DIHEDIH >HIG>7JI>DC 6C9
)GDI:8I>DC D; DCH:GK6I>DC )G>DG>IN G:6H ,EG>C<:G :GA>C !:>9:A7:G< :GA>C !:>9:A
7:G< EE –
0-& –0:I -GDE>8H &6C6<:B:CI JI=DG>IN  3DCA>C:4 K6>A67A: 6I =IIEHLLL
L:IIGDE>8H<DK6J 88:HH:9  #JAN 
0-- –0DGA9 -G6K:A  -DJG>HB DJC8>A  -G6K:A  -DJG>HB 8DCDB>8 "BE68I
 JHIG6A>6 3DCA>C:4 K6>A67A: 6I =IIEHLLLLII8DG<B:9>6SA:HG:EDGIH
:8DCDB>8>BE68IG:H:6G8=8DJCIG>:H6JHIG6A>6E9;88:HH:9  &6G8=

1>C +$  /6A>9>IN 6C9 <:C:G6A>O6I>DC >C ;JIJG: 86H: HIJ9N :K6AJ6I>DCH K6AJ6I>DC
  –
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