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Global Trends of Restructuring Production and Income Worldwide and in Russia
Abstract
Using the input−output approach, the article examines evolving economic growth in developed and developing countries over the last 30–40 years and the structural shifts brought about by globalization. The rationale of a possible reindustrialization scenario for developed countries is substantiated. Assessment is performed of the impact that global value-added chains exert on the development of individual countries, the relationship between the level of technological development, structural shifts, and economic growth.
... At the same time, import dependence was considered mainly from the point of view of possible damage due to political processes (sanctions), and the substitution of products coming from developed countries with goods of Chinese origin as a way out. Assessments of the place and prospects of Russia in the global economy have so far been formed for both global added value chains [15][16][17][18][19], and for individual regions or areas [20,21]. ...
... Table data as a forecasting tool, in particular, are built into the system of models of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences [22,23]. The WIOD data have already been used by Russian researchers, in addition to analyzing added value chains [15][16][17][18]24], to assess the relationship between structural changes and economic growth [25], to predict the effects of public policy [23,26] and for other purposes. There are even examples of solving problems close to the one under consideration -for example, in [27], based on the input-output method, the consequences of changes in the structure of demand in China were illustrated. ...
The article analyzes the level of import dependence of Russian industry in relation to the supply of intermediate consumption products from China and in general from all countries of the world. The study was carried out during the period of the increasing spread of coronavirus infection in order to determine the industries that are potentially the most vulnerable to possible disruption of foreign trade. The information base for calculations is the official data on the volume and structure of Russia's foreign trade and the input-output tables of the WIOD. As a result of calculations using several alternative models, it was found that Russian industry, even with significant integration into the world production chains, remains sufficiently resistant to local supply shocks. The analysis of import dependence in terms of imported raw materials and components can be used in the study of any shocks in foreign trade, it makes it possible to more accurately assess the effects of trade agreements or sanctions, as well as the effect of the devaluation of the national currency.
The article analyzes the current state of Russian foreign trade and its impact on the development of the economy. The main changes that occurred in the global economy during the crisis caused by the new coronavirus pandemic are considered. It is concluded that most of the trends that formed in the global economy before the crisis are likely to receive additional acceleration after its end. In this regard, additional restrictions may be imposed on traditional Russian exports. It is stated that foreign trade should become one of the key factors that ensure the stability of the Russian economy in the medium and long term. The requirements for the balance of payments and the exchange rate that ensure the stability of the macroeconomic dynamics and parameters of foreign trade are determined. Given the current trends in the parameters of the world economy and trade, it should be assumed that the structure of Russian exports will not undergo significant changes over the next 15 years. This means that for the next 15 years, the development of the export potential of the fuel and energy sector, the diversification of the geography of energy supplies, remains one of the key tasks of the foreign economic strategy. The key restrictions of the integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are evaluated.
This article builds a theoretical framework to help explain governance patterns in global value chains. It draws on three streams of literature – transaction costs economics, production networks, and technological capability and firm-level learning – to identify three variables that play a large role in determining how global value chains are governed and change. These are: (1) the complexity of transactions, (2) the ability to codify transactions, and (3) the capabilities in the supply-base. The theory generates five types of global value chain governance – hierarchy, captive, relational, modular, and market – which range from high to low levels of explicit coordination and power asymmetry. The article highlights the dynamic and overlapping nature of global value chain governance through four brief industry case studies: bicycles, apparel, horticulture and electronics.
The reasons for the slowdown in Russia’s economic growth in 2012–2014 are considered. Different forms of modern import-substitution practices are analyzed.
This paper discussed two measures of value added flows between countries ‘Trade in value added’ accounts for value added of one country directly and indirectly embodied in final consumption of another country. ‘Value added in trade’ measures the value added embodied in gross trade flows. The paper shows that both measures result in the same overall net trade of a country which equals its trade balance in gross terms which however does not hold for bilateral relations. These value added flows can further be broken down by various production factors including capital and labour income by educational attainment categories. Using the recently compiled World Input-Output Database (WIOD) selected results comparing the EU-27, the USA, Japan and China based on both concepts regarding value added flows across countries are presented. For example, the US trade deficit with China is reduced by about 25% but would increase with respect to the EU-27 by about 20%. These imbalances are further broken down by factor incomes.
Europe’s reindustrialisation
- A G Bank
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