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Retrospective Structural Shifts in the Russian Economy
Abstract
Based on Rosstat data and Input-Output tables developed by the IEF RAS, we study the changes in the price system, in production technologies, in the proportions of income distribution, and in the structure of final demand, that have been observed since the early 1990s. The paper also estimates the effect of these shifts on the dynamics and branch structure of gross output.
... This approach was used earlier to analyze the impact of structural changes in the economy on the dynamics and structure of output. The results of this analysis are given, including in [12,13]. ...
... In this regard, it is necessary to analyze in more detail the impact of the factors under consideration on the dynamics of employment within each time interval. STUDIES The fall in household consumption in 1990-1998 by 26% in comparison with the volumes in 1990 was the result of both a sharp decline in household incomes and transformations of the price structure [12]. This factor acted in the direction of reducing employment during this period (all other things being equal, the contraction of household consumption volumes led to a decrease in employment during this period by 6%). ...
The article analyzes the influence of such macrostructural factors as final demand and a group of structural and technological factors on the dynamics of employment of the population of the Russian Federation on the basis of the input-output balance. The latter includes changes in labor productivity and production technologies, which is reflected in changes in the elements of the matrix of direct cost coefficients. Estimates of the contribution of these factors to the dynamics of employment during periods of transformational recession (1991-1998), subsequent recovery growth (1999-2014) and stagnation (2015-2017) are calculated.
... A modernizációs hiányok ellenére -dacára a társadalmi várakozásoknak és a komoly költségvetési többleteknek -Oroszországban nem jelent meg e hiányosságok felszámolásának érzékelhető jele -mutat rá a szerző. Például, ismeretes volt előttük (Degtyar', 2012), hogy milyen nyugdíjreform mentén haladhatnának előre, lépni csak a növekvő nyersanyagárak érája után léptek; az elmúlt évszázad tudományos felfedezései közül néhányat orosz tudósok jegyeznek, aminek alapján egy több lábon álló, versenyképes termékek előállítására képes, magas technológiatartalmú orosz gazdaság képe lebeg előttünk -számos területen komoly importfüggés fi gyelhető (Ksenofontov-Polzikov, 2018) -, de ez épp oly fi kció, mint Shangri-La volt James Hilton regényében. Csaba László ezután a lengyel átalakulás szakaszait vázolja, annak töréses jellegét és a reformálhatóság viszonyát bontja ki. ...
The government of the Russian Federation has announced the transition to payments for energy resources supplied to the People’s Republic of China in yuan. It also provides for the use of the Celestial Empire’s currency in settlements with third countries and the rejection of the dollar and the euro. Similar processes are taking place in other member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, most intensively in the Republic of Belarus. However, the need for deepening cooperation for China itself is greatly underestimated. Beijing needs it at the current stage based on the features of the Chinese model of economic growth of the last 15 years. The article examines the role of the external and internal markets in the economic growth of the PRC, the features of the current stage, the restrictions associated with it and ways to overcome them through deepening cooperation with the Russian Federation. In this regard, bilateral cooperation is becoming a key factor for China to maintain dynamic growth rates and economic stability. For Russia, this gives an opportunity to build its own ambitious economic development strategy with the use of the potential of the Celestial Empire.
Purpose: of the study is to substantiate the possibility of carrying out structural, spatial and technological modernization of the economy of the macroregion.
Methods: the study used a systematic approach and the postulates of the modernization theory. The trend analysis was carried out with the help of statistical data. The predictive analytics methods were used to predict possible changes.
Results : external shocks (economic crises and sanctions measures) to which the regions are exposed force them to adapt to a new condition and necessitate structural, spatial and technological modernization. The assessment of the structural state of the economy of the district based on the use of various statistical indicators revealed that the largest contribution to the creation of the regional domestic product is made by industries that belong to the non-manufacturing sector. There is nothing critical in this fact, but for lagging and problem regions, including the study district, it is most acceptable to ensure the dominance of industries in the manufacturing sector. It is possible to implement such an approach through structural, spatial and technological modernization.
Many problems associated with changes in the structure of the economy are not solved due to the low technological base of enterprises in the real sector. Possible solutions to such problems are in the field of technological modernization and improving the quality of fixed capital. An important role in the implementation of these processes is assigned to the use of advanced technologies and special software products. To a greater extent, this applies to economic entities of the real sector, which form the framework of the economy.
Conclusions and Relevance : the implementation of the modernization approach for the district is associated with certain problems. To solve them, it is possible to use various tools, including plans, strategies, programs, program-target management methods, and others. To carry out structural, spatial and technological modernization of the economy of the district, the most effective is the use of project management methods. The peculiarity of project management is that its methods can be adapted to the conditions of different regions, which differ in the parameters of socio-economic development.
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On the development of an updated version of the series of input-output balances of the Russian Federation in constant and current prices for 1980-2004
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- Yu V Yaremenko
- M N Uzyakov
- M Yu
- Ksenofontov
- Yu. V. Yaremenko
Economic reforms in Russia: Analysis of results and the need for an alternative
- Yu V Yaremenko
- M N Uzyakov
- M Yu
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