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Evaluation of mitigation effects on air pollutants for electric scooters in Taiwan with the energy flow analysis and system dynamics approach
Abstract and Figures
This research establishes a localized dynamic system model to explore changes of air pollution emission in the transition of electric scooters (ES) considering energy transformation. The calculation of emission factors (EF) of criteria air pollutants and greenhouse gases for Heavy-duty Gasoline-powered Scooters (GSH) and Heavy-duty ES (ESH) is performed with energy flow analysis. Compared with the GSH, the EF of TSP, NOx, VOCs, and CO2e for ESH reduce by, respectively, 14.8%, 97.4%, 100%, and 76.8% per kilometer travelled in 2016; although the SOx EF for ESH is 2.4 times higher than that for GSH, the increment is down to 22.2% in 2025. If the SOx emissions intensity of electricity reduce to 100 mg/kWh, the SOx EF for ESH will be lower than that for GSH. System dynamics and energy flow analysis can provide effective analysis about mitigation scenarios and these findings are helpful to local authorities for air quality management.
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... Some studies have included the motorcycle industry in the analysis of other related problems (mainly environmental ones). For example, Hsieh et al. [34] explored the changes in air pollution in Taiwan similarly to how Trappey et al. did [35]. Peraphan et Motorcycle-dominated cities are reported to have a more stable traffic flow and higher road capacity utilization compared to those with an equal number of four-and twowheelers [5]. ...
... Some studies have included the motorcycle industry in the analysis of other related problems (mainly environmental ones). For example, Hsieh et al. [34] explored the changes in air pollution in Taiwan similarly to how Trappey et al. did [35]. Peraphan et al. [21] found that the use of motorcycles can affect the sustainable development of territories unless parking policies are implemented, which is in line with the results of Cheng et al. [36]. ...
The motorcycle market has experienced an upward trend. That growth brings along mobility, accidents, and environment-related issues; nevertheless, there is a scarcity of literature on evaluating the impact of motorcycle market policies. Consequently, it has been challenging for researchers and policymakers to develop evidence-based strategies to promote or control the growth of this market. This paper aims to review and analyze the scientific literature about motorcycle market policies, using tech-mining techniques and a cluster analysis of keywords, to provide insights about the most relevant world trends in this research area. For this purpose, the bibliographic information of publications in the field was retrieved from the Scopus database. As a result, three thematic clusters (sustainability, mobility, and electric motorcycles) were identified and explained. According to our findings, greenhouse gas emissions, sustainability, environmental impact, and developing countries are the hot research topics. The research leader countries on said topics are the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom. This study can, therefore, be used as a reference to define a future research agenda in the area. Consequently, it permits researchers and policymakers to identify trending topics and gaps in knowledge, as a baseline to include motorcycles in sustainable and affordable transport systems design.
... The SD models have separate sub-models looking at utilities' decision and consumers' decisions [41], separate models looking at behavioral archetypes of consumer groups and utilities [33,35,40,41,48,49], with distinct separation of the different utility actors and market actors [27,45,53], taking into account the local, regional, and national level factors affecting the local transition [51], along with municipality or government action and its impact on diffusion [43,46], while in some cases looking at the interactions with landscape factors such as economy [32,50,52,54]. On the other hand, articles explicitly also focus on the regime factors impacting the 'local' energy transition, such as during the transition to electric scooters [42] and during the diffusion of solar PV systems [26]. Some articles scrutinize the local transition bounded by geographical location and the interplay between infrastructure and localized technology suitability [29,44]. ...
Local energy transition processes are complex socio-technical transitions requiring careful study. The use of System Dynamics (SD) in modelling and analyzing local energy transitions is especially suitable given the characteristics of SD. Our aim is to systematically categorize the different ways SD is used and useful to scrutinize local energy transitions, and to see if we can discern any common themes that can be useful to researchers looking to scrutinize local energy transitions, using SD. The study is exploratory in nature, with peer-reviewed journal and conference articles analyzed using content analysis. The six categories on which the articles are analyzed are: the sector the article studies; the transition that is studied in the article; the modelling depth in the article; the objective of the article; the justification for using SD provided in the article and the levels of interaction with 'local'. Our findings show most of the local energy transitions have been studied using simulatable Stock and Flow Diagrams in SD methodology. The important sectors in the energy field are represented in terms of SD modelling of local energy transitions, including electricity, transport, district heating etc. Most of the local energy transitions scrutinized by SD in the articles have descriptive objectives, with some prescriptive, and just one evaluative objective. In terms of justification for using SD provided by the articles analyzed in this study, we found four major themes along which the justifications that were provided. They are dynamics, feedbacks, delays and complexity, systematic thinking, bridging disciplines and actor interactions and behavior. The 'dynamics, feedbacks, delays and complexity' theme is the most cited justification for the use of SD in scrutinizing local energy transitions, followed by systemic thinking.
... In addition to these studies, Hsieh et al used a system dynamics approach to examine the air pollution mitigation potential of seated electric scooters in Taiwan, but limited the scope to use phase impacts [16]. Sheng et al [14] compared electric motorcycles to gasoline-powered motorcycles on urban noise, finding that electrification can reduce noise pollution. ...
Shared stand-up electric scooters are now offered in many cities as an option for short-term rental, and marketed for short-distance travel. Using life cycle assessment, we quantify the total environmental impacts of this mobility option associated with global warming, acidification, eutrophication, and respiratory impacts. We find that environmental burdens associated with charging the e-scooter are small relative to materials and manufacturing burdens of the e-scooters and the impacts associated with transporting the scooters to overnight charging stations. The results of a Monte Carlo analysis show an average value of life cycle global warming impacts of 202 g CO2-eq/passenger-mile, driven by materials and manufacturing (50%), followed by daily collection for charging (43% of impact). We illustrate the potential to reduce life cycle global warming impacts through improved scooter collection and charging approaches, including the use of fuel-efficient vehicles for collection (yielding 177 g CO2-eq/passenger-mile), limiting scooter collection to those with a low battery state of charge (164 g CO2-eq/passenger-mile), and reducing the driving distance per scooter for e-scooter collection and distribution (147 g CO2-eq/passenger-mile). The results prove to be highly sensitive to e-scooter lifetime; ensuring that the shared e-scooters are used for two years decreases the average life cycle emissions to 141 g CO2-eq/passenger-mile. Under our Base Case assumptions, we find that the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with e-scooter use is higher in 65% of our Monte Carlo simulations than the suite of modes of transportation that are displaced. This likelihood drops to 35%-50% under our improved and efficient e-scooter collection processes and only 4% when we assume two-year e-scooter lifetimes. When e-scooter usage replaces average personal automobile travel, we nearly universally realize a net reduction in environmental impacts.
This paper aims to identify the main sociopsychological factors that individuals perceive as affecting their intention to adopt electric (e−)micromobility. Drawing from modal choice theory, the factors are classified into functional (money, time, and other convenience values) and non-functional (emotional, social, and epistemic values). Following a PRISMA systematic literature review of 67 papers, we observed the reported influence of several functional and non-functional factors over the decision on whether to use an e-micromobility mode of transport. Results indicate that non-functional factors such as environmental concern, innovativeness, and belonging can be even more influential for individuals than traditional functional factors such as speed, cost, and time savings. Users seem to perceive these services as socially beneficial, contributing to improved livability, equity of access, and diversity of choice. The present review contributes to our understanding of the complexity of modal choice, and the importance of accounting for the sociopsychological factors influencing user decisions regarding micromobility. Our findings can help improve the strategies and policies supporting e-micromobility adoption.
Previous well-to-wheels (WTW) analyses on electric vehicles (EVs) have reported tremendous results of potential energy and environmental effects. However, there remains a challenge to lower the uncertainties that were introduced when obtaining life-cycle parameters from a macro perspective (e.g., nationwide or regional scales). This study takes Beijing as a case, because it is an important regional hub for EV promotion and represents megacities with severe urban air pollution issues and congested traffic conditions. We collected up-to-date data concerning the electricity generation mix, fuel transport, end-of-pipe controls, real-world fuel economy and emissions, and estimated the WTW energy consumption and CO2 and air pollutant emissions for various light-duty passenger vehicle technologies currently (2015) and in the mid-term future (2030). Unlike previous results, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are shown to significantly reduce WTW CO2 emissions by 32% for the present model year (MY) 2015 compared with their conventional gasoline counterparts, primarily due to the shift from coal to gas in local power plants in Beijing and the significantly higher real-world fuel consumption of conventional vehicles compared with the type-approval value. By 2030, WTW CO2 emissions by BEVs should approach 100 g km-1 due to the increased importation of non-fossil electricity, even lower than that of hybrid electric vehicles. Furthermore, significant improvements in end-of-pipe controls for coal-fired power plants have effectively lowered WTW emissions of air pollutants. In terms of VOCs and NOX that are of most concerns among all pollutants emitted from passenger vehicles, the WTW emissions of VOCs for MY 2015 BEV are already significantly lower than their conventional counterparts by 95%. Although WTW NOX emissions for BEVs are currently higher by 66% than conventional gasoline vehicles, we expect that BEVs can achieve WTW emission reduction benefit of NOX (41%) by 2030. This study indicates the significance of fine-grained and real-world features when assessing the WTW energy and environmental effects of EVs.
Technology transitions require the formation of a self-sustaining market through alignment of consumers' interests, producers' capabilities, infrastructure development, and regulations. In this research I develop a broad behavioral dynamic model of the prospective transition to alternative fuel vehicles. In Essay one I focus on the premise that automobile purchase decisions are strongly shaped by cultural norms, personal experience, and social interactions. To capture these factors, I examine important social processes conditioning alternative vehicle diffusion, including the generation of consumer awareness through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing. Through analysis of a simulation model I demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for the sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on behavioral, economic and physical system parameters. Word-of-mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Further, I show that marketing and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.
Automakers are now developing alternatives to internal combustion engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE – electric hybrids. Adoption dynamics for alternative vehicles are complex, owing to the size and importance of the auto industry and vehicle installed base. Diffusion of alternative vehicles is both enabled and constrained by powerful positive feedbacks arising from scale and scope economies, research and development, learning by doing, driver experience, word of mouth, and complementary resources such as fueling infrastructure. We describe a dynamic model of the diffusion of and competition among alternative fuel vehicles, including coevolution of the fleet technology, behavior, and complementary resources. Here we focus on the generation of consumer awareness of alternatives through feedback from consumers’ experience, word of mouth, and marketing, with a reduced-form treatment of network effects and other positive feedbacks (which we treat in other papers). We demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on economic and behavioral parameters. We show that word of mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Expanding the model boundary to include learning, technological spillovers, and spatial coevolution of fueling infrastructure adds additional feedbacks that condition the diffusion of alternative vehicles. Results show scenarios for successful diffusion of alternative vehicles, but also suggest that marketing programs and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining.
This paper considers the dynamics of electricity demand in response to changes arising from low-carbon policies and socio-economic developments. As part of an investigation into the evolution of such systems on small economically-developed islands, endogenous electricity demand and associated policies are studied for the Azorean island of São Miguel. A comprehensive System Dynamics (SD) model covering the period 2005 − 2050 is presented which captures both historical behaviours and real-world influences on the endogenous demand dynamics of an island-based electricity system. The impact of tourism, energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EV) expansion allied with associated policy options, are critically evaluated by the SD model using a series of scenarios. The model shows that energy efficiency measures exhibit the most significant long-term impact on electricity demand, while in contrast, policies to increase tourism have a much less direct impact and EV expansion has thought-provoking impacts on the long-term demand, although this is not as influential as energy efficiency measures.
Since 2012, the government has been promoting the electric vehicles and the development of related infrastructure to encourage local automakers to explore into the alternatively powered vehicles. However, the benefits of grid-dependent EVs can only be harvested under the condition that their use is coupled with a low carbon electricity grid. Thus, it is an additional challenge for Malaysia's that are largely dependent on fossil fuels for electricity generation. The object of this paper is to perform a well-to-wheel life cycle assessment for calculating the greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the usage of ICEVs, HEVs and EVs in Malaysian scenario. These emission calculations will provide the best information for policymakers, researchers, and investors to make appropriate and effective decisions on policies, research and investments in future transport energy. The results show that running EVs with national grid will produce an average of 7% more GHG emissions than HEVs at the same distance. However, they will produce an average of 19% less GHG emissions than the ICEVs. Overall the GHG emissions produced through the usage of EVs are substantial based on the well-to-wheel analysis, as the environmental profile of EVs is linked with the national grid. Therefore, in order to harvest the benefit of EVs towards climate change and global warming mitigation, massive modernization and transformation should be taken for the development of the national grid towards greener sources.
Developing the electric vehicle (EV) industry is generally considered to be an effective way of easing the imbalance between the supply and demand of oil, and, in addition, the pressure to reduce environmental pollution. Developed countries and most developing countries including Brazil, Russia, India, and China (so-called ‘BRIC’ countries) are actively promoting the development of EVs. By studying different types of widely-used gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and EVs, we compare the effect on the environment of utilizing EVs in both developed and developing countries. This is achieved by using a ‘well-to-wheel’ method. The results show that compared to gasoline ICEVs, EVs have a significant effect on CO2 emission reduction. However, the corresponding air pollution due to SO2, PM10, NOx, etc. for a given EV varies substantially in different countries because of the influence of several factors (electrical power structure, line loss rate, and so on). As developing countries use larger proportions of thermal power or present high line loss rates, pollutant emission produced by a certain EV is much higher than that in developed countries. Taking China as a typical developing country as an example, this research dynamically predicts the environmental effects expected in 2020 and 2025 due to a developing EV industry. Predictions are based on a method of Monte Carlo simulation and consider the government’s development plan for energy. Finally, according to the results obtained, policies and suggestions for the development of the EV industry in developing countries are proposed.
This paper describes the development of (1) a formula correlating the variation in overall refinery efficiency with crude quality, refinery complexity, and product slate; (2) a methodology for calculating energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities and processing fuel shares of major U.S. refinery products. Using linear programming (LP) modeling of the various refinery processing units, we analyzed 43 refineries that process 70% of total crude input to U.S. refineries and cover the largest four Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions (I, II, III, V). The weighted-average production efficiencies (and ranges) are estimated to be 88.6% (86.2%-91.2%) for gasoline, 90.9% (84.8%-94.5%) for diesel, 95.3% (93.0%-97.5%) for jet fuel, 94.5% (91.6%-96.2%) for residual fuel oil (RFO), and 90.8% (88.0%-94.3%) for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The corresponding weighted-average, production GHG emission intensities (and ranges) (in grams of carbon dioxide-equivalent [CO2e] per megajoule [MJ]) are estimated to be 7.8 (6.2-9.8) for gasoline, 4.9 (2.7-9.9) for diesel, 2.3 (0.9-4.4) for jet fuel, 3.4 (1.5-6.9) for RFO, and 6.6 (4.3-9.2) for LPG. The findings of this study are key components of the life-cycle assessment of GHG emissions associated with various petroleum fuels; such assessment is the centerpiece of legislation developed and promulgated by government agencies in the United States and abroad to reduce GHG emissions and abate global warming.
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