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In the presented paper, author focus on the issues related to risk assessment of transport processes performance. The author presented the characteristics of the traditional approach to risk assessment in transport, which is popular in the literature. This approach addresses the strategic risk assessment for the road transport system and it focuses primarily on aspects related to the transport safety. The business approach to risk assessment from the perspective of the managers of the transport process is presented in the next part of the article. In this case, the subject of the analysis is the operational risk, which focuses on the risks affecting the implementation of the transport process and the achievement of the company’s operational objective. The article concludes with a summary, including directions for further research.
Journal of KONBiN 45(2018)
ISSN 1895-8281
DOI 10.2478/jok-2018-0016 ESSN 2083-4608
Agnieszka Tubis
Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
Politechnika Wrocławska, Wydział Mechaniczny
Abstract: In the presented paper, author focus on the issues related to risk
assessment of transport processes performance. The author presented the
characteristics of the traditional approach to risk assessment in transport, which is
popular in the literature. This approach addresses the strategic risk assessment for
the road transport system and it focuses primarily on aspects related to the
transport safety. The business approach to risk assessment from the perspective of
the managers of the transport process is presented in the next part of the article. In
this case, the subject of the analysis is the operational risk, which focuses on the
risks affecting the implementation of the transport process and the achievement of
the company's operational objective. The article concludes with a summary,
including directions for further research.
Keywords: transportation process, risk assessment, safety
Streszczenie: W artykule poruszono zagadnienie dotyczące oceny ryzyka
w procesie transportu drogowego. Autorka przedstawiła charakterystykę
tradycyjnego podejścia do oceny ryzyka w transporcie, które dominuje
w literaturze przedmiotu. Podejście to dotyczy strategicznej oceny ryzyka dla
systemu transportu drogowego i koncentruje się przede wszystkim na aspektach
związanych z bezpieczeństwem przewozu. W dalszej części artykułu przedstawiono
biznesowe podejście do oceny ryzyka z perspektywy zarządzających procesem
transportowym. W tym przypadku przedmiotem analizy jest ryzyko operacyjne,
które koncentruje się na zagrożeniach wpływających na realizację procesu
przewozu i osiągnięcie celu operacyjnego przedsiębiorstwa. Artykuł kończy
podsumowanie oraz wytyczne obejmujące kierunki dalszych badań.
Słowa kluczowe: proces transportowy, ocena ryzyka, bezpieczeństwo
Risk assessment in road transport strategic and business approach
Oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym podejście strategiczne i biznesowe
1. Introduction
How risk is perceived depends largely on who assesses risk, what information they
have, what algorithms of methods and models they recognise and what acceptance
criteria they use. Key to risk management is clarity of terminology [32]. Aven has
prepared detailed reviews of the definition of the concept of risk. He distinguished
seven basic ways of understanding risk, which is the subject of scientific research.
According to this classification, the risk can be understood as [5]:
the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence,
the potential for realisation of unwanted, negative consequences of an event,
exposure to a proposition (e.g. the occurrence of a loss) of which one is
the consequences of the activity and associated uncertain- ties,
uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of an activity with respect to
something that humans value,
the occurrences of some specified consequences of the activity and associated
the deviation from a reference value and associated uncertainties.
The risk can be defined in different ways, as can be seen in the above definitions.
Uncertainty is a concept that appears in most definitions. This is the element that
accompanies the occurrence of the analyzed event and its consequences.
Risk assessment in road transport has been the subject of numerous research and
scientific publications around the world for many years. This is one of the
important research areas also in Poland. In 2007-2010, a scientific consortium led
by the Gdansk University of Technology carried out the research project entitled
"The integrated system of road safety - ZEUS"[39]. In the performed project work,
the risk in road transport was defined as the uncertainties of taken by human
activities[38]. The risk was also linked closely to the issue of choice understanding
as taking a decision regarding the risk of dangerous behaviour with having
a knowledge that there may happen an accident, or an attempts to limit, reduce or
eliminate the risk of an accident occurrence by driving appropriate to the existing
conditions. The authors of the project also found that the risk in road transport is
a combination of the probability of hazard event activation and caused in
connection with it the damages or losses[38]. In their research studies, the authors
of the project emphasized clearly that in contrast to many fields of engineering,
there had not been yet developed a uniform method of risk management for road
Agnieszka Tubis
There are created only the basis for relevant methodology that is established on
standard elements: risk analysis, valuation and risk assessment, and the removal of
risk and control of remaining risk [38].
In the research project, the risk is analyzed in the context of safety. This approach
is characteristic for technical sciences. It is also the main scope of research
conducted all over the world in the field of road transport risk assessment.
However, in the area of management methods, a business approach to risk
assessment in road transport seems to be prevalent. In this case, the focus of
researchers is centered on costs and logistics connected with completing the
transportation process. This aspect of risk assessment research is by far less
developed in the literature on the subject. Therefore, the aim of this article is to
present two different approaches to risk assessment in road transport - a strategic
one and a business one.
The first part of the article contains the results of researching academic
publications connected with risk assessment in road transport which have appeared
over the last 10 years and which focus mostly on the aspect of safety. The second
part of the article discusses the business approach to risk assessment from the point
of view of transport companies. The article ends with a summary and guidelines on
directions for further research.
2. Research methodology.
The first stage of research procedure was defining the scope of risk analyses
conducted for road transport which are described in international literature. To
prepare a summary of the literature, the following academic journals databases
have been used: ProQuest, Elsevier, ScienceDirect, Wiley Online Library. The
records were searched according to the following key:
the phrase “risk assessment” appearing in the title of the article and
the phrase “road transport” appearing anywhere in the body of the article.
The search was limited to the years 2006-2017 in order to be able to concentrate
only on the most recent research trends.
As a result, 363 articles that meet the assumed criteria have been selected and then
further organized. From the selection, the following articles have been removed:
copies of the same articles which appeared in different databases;
articles in which the use of the phrase “road transport” was accidental (not
connected with the subject);
articles concerning pollution risk (soil pollution, concentrations of heavy metals etc.).
51 articles were accepted for further research. Articles came from a total of 31
Risk assessment in road transport strategic and business approach
Oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym podejście strategiczne i biznesowe
A summary of the most important magazines is presented in Table 1:
Tab. 1 List of journals containing analyzed articles
Title of the journal
Transportation Research
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
Process Safety and Environmental Protection
Risk Analysis
Safety Science
Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems
Journal of Hazardous Materials
Journal of Risk Research
Procedia Engineering
Risk Management
The number of articles published in subsequent years is shown in Figure 1.
Fig. 1 Distribution of yearbooks of published articles
As we can see, most articles are from 2011-2012 and 2016-2017. It can therefore
be concluded that the subject of risk assessment in transport is once again
becoming important in the area of research.
3. Strategic risk assessment in road transport
The analysis of publications proves that risk assessment in road transport focuses
for the most part on the macro scale, that is, it concerns mostly strategic risk
assessment. Strategic risk is a long-term risk connected with long-term decisions
taken by institutions controlling road safety in the analysed area. It is connected
with uncertainty about completing the strategic goal of protecting life and health of
all the traffic participants [31]. Therefore, strategic risk is mostly assessed in the
context of safety issues.
Agnieszka Tubis
The analysis of articles that have appeared in the last 10 years in various academic
journals seems to prove this point. The hazards that are assessed can be assigned to
one of 9 groups:
traffic accident (RA1)
terrorist attack (RA2)
infrastructure (RA3)
threat to human health (RA4)
environmental hazards (RA5)
incorrect driver behavior (RA6)
operation costs (RA7)
negative natural phenomena (RA8)
other (RA9).
The most research publications concentrate on assessing risk connected with road
accidents and with the reliability of the transport infrastructure being used. The
detailed summary of the number of articles and their assignment to specific groups
is shown in Table 2.
Tab. 2 Assignment of articles to selected thematic groups
Number of
In the concept of risk management the risk is described as an occurrence which, if
it happens, affects the goals set by the organisation [58]. When analysing the
transport process, there are three criteria for assessing whether the goals have been
safety aspect;
the aspect of staying within the budget;
the aspect of meeting the declared logistic parameters.
Risk assessment in road transport strategic and business approach
Oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym podejście strategiczne i biznesowe
The next step of the research project was therefore classifying the results as one of
the three criteria assessing the compliance of the transportation process. The results
of the classification are shown as percentage share in fig.2.
Fig. 2 Assignment of results to the criteria
for assessing the compliance of the transport process
A detailed analysis of the content of the research presented in the articles proves
that the most publications on risk assessment in road transport concentrate mostly
on the safety aspect of the transportation process.
4. Risk assessment from the point of view of the transport company
However, long-term risk is also the subject of analysis for transport companies. In
this case, the scope of analysis concerns strategic, technological, social, legal and
environmental aspects. [54]. These aspects determine development trends for the
economy and the region, and the risk connected with them on company level. They
comprise the risk of wrongly assessing trends in company development,
forecasting risk and the risk of not achieving strategic goals of the company [54].
However, when approaching issues connected with safety of road transport, freight
companies often apply a stochastic theory. According to it, the occurrence of road
accidents is purely random and people have no control over it. [30]. Therefore, in
this case the most popular risk management method for transport companies is
purchasing insurance. As a result, transport companies are not interested in
analysing risk connected with road accidents, as long as they are not too
commonplace and do not affect the drivers repeatedly.
The risk assessment that road companies are interested in concerns mostly the
hazards affecting proper completion of transporting cargo from point A to point B.
Agnieszka Tubis
As Wilson states [59], it is the disruptions in transport happening between the
supplier and distributor / warehouse that affect the efficiency of supply chain the
Therefore, transport managers when assessing risk often tend to think short-term,
which means that their analyses focus on operational risk assessment. This risk is
assessed as the risk of insufficient efficiency of operations in achieving current
goals. It comprises the possibility of not having the right qualifications, not
meeting technical or efficiency requirements or of willful misconduct [61].
Therefore, what needs to be assessed is the efficiency of internal processes of the
companies and their resistance to disturbances, so that the goals can be achieved.
The focus of the managers responsible for risk assessment connected with
transporting cargo is concentrated on meeting the requirements concerning [51]:
the assumed logistic parameters for the delivery (delivery on time and
conditions of transport (meeting the requirements concerning safety - driving
time, average speed on route, securing the cargo);
the conditions of the transport fleet;
proper documentation management;
quality of service.
The point of reference here is the assessment of complete logistic service provided
by the transport company, comprising the stage of organizing the transport as well
as the transport itself. The assessed risk concerns uncertainty of completing
business aims assumed for the transport process, namely, completing transport
service in accordance with budget, quality and logistic requirements.
5. Summary
Review of the articles on risk assessment for road transport proves that the issue is
researched widely all over the world. The main focus of researchers is on the safety
aspect of risk assessment, particularly on the causes and effects of accidents on
roads and on reliability of transport infrastructure. On the other hand, there’s
a demand appearing on the market for models of risk assessment adapted to the
decisive needs of transport companies. The managers responsible for organizing
transport focus mostly on company’s business goals when assessing the risk. They
treat road accidents and hazards resulting from incorrectly prepared infrastructure
as external factors out of their control. Their focus is mostly on internal processes
of the company and possibility of improving them after conducting operational risk
assessment. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare a multi-criteria method of risk
assessment for road transport, one that would meet the needs of managerial staff in
transport companies.
Risk assessment in road transport strategic and business approach
Oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym podejście strategiczne i biznesowe
The research presented in this article is part of “Identifying data supporting risk
assessment in road transport system in the aspect of safety and meeting logistic
standards” program financed as part of MINIATURA 1 program. The next stages
of research will be directed to the identification of information collected by
transport companies for the purpose of risk analysis and assessment in their
Ph.D. Agnieszka Tubis, Wroclaw University of Science and
Technology, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Department of
Maintenance and Operation of Logistic, Transportation and
Hydraulic Systems. PhD Dissertation concerned the cooperation
of manufacturers and retailers in the area of planning,
forecasting and replenishment according to the concept of
CPFR. Current interests are connected with the concept of risk
management in transport companies, process controlling being implemented in the
maintenance and operations management of vehicles, and she is interests in
systems that support decision-making processes of managers in the road transport
Agnieszka Tubis
1. Wstęp
To, jak postrzegane jest ryzyko, zależy w dużej mierze od tego, kto ocenia ryzyko,
jakie ma informacje, jakie algorytmy metod i modeli rozpoznaje oraz jakie kryteria
akceptacji stosuje [32]. Szczegółowego przeglądy definicji pojęcia ryzyko dokonał
Aven. Wyróżnił on 7 dominujących sposobów pojmowania ryzyka, które jest
przedmiotem prowadzonych badań naukowych. Zgodnie z klasyfikacją ryzyko
może być pojmowane jako [5]:
1) Możliwość wystąpienia negatywnego zdarzenia.
2) Możliwość wystąpienia / osiągnięcia niepożądanych skutków zdarzenia.
3) Narażenie na wynik (np. stratę), którego wystąpienie jest niepewne.
4) Konsekwencja działalności i związane z nią niepewne powiązania.
5) Niepewność co do dotkliwości skutków działalności w odniesieniu do
elementów stanowiących wartość dla ludzi.
6) Wystąpienie określonych konsekwencji działalności i związanych z nią
7) Odchylenia od rekomendowanej wartości i związanych z tym niepewności.
Jak widać z powyższych definicji, ryzyko może być definiowane w różnych
sposób. To co jest charakterystyczne i powtarza się w większości przytoczonych
definicji to niepewność towarzyszącą wystąpieniu danego zjawiska oraz jego
konsekwencje / skutki. Identyfikacja zbioru zdarzeń zależy jednak w dużej mierze
od celu, jaki stawiany jest analizowanemu procesowi. Kryterium celu definiuje
bowiem zakres przeprowadzanej oceny ryzyka.
Ocena ryzyka w transporcie drogowym od wielu lat jest przedmiotem licznych
badań i publikacji naukowych na całym świecie. Również w Polsce jest to jeden
z istotnych obszarów badawczych. Na szczególną uwagę zasługuje projekt
pt. „Zintegrowany system bezpieczeństwa drogowego ZEUS” realizowany
w latach 2007-2010 przez konsorcjum naukowe kierowane przez Politechnikę
Gdańską [39]. W ramach prowadzonych badań uczestnicy projektu, zdefiniowali
ryzyko w ruchu drogowym jako niepewność rezultatu podejmowanych przez
człowieka działań [38]. Ryzyko powiązano również ściśle z kwestią wyboru, czyli
decyzją dotyczącą podjęcia ryzyka niebezpiecznych zachowań, przy posiadanej
wiedzy, że może dojść do wypadku, albo dotyczącą próby ograniczenia, redukcji
lub eliminacji ryzyka wypadku poprzez jazdę adekwatną do istniejących
warunków. Autorzy projektu stwierdzili również, ryzyko w transporcie
drogowym jest kombinacją prawdopodobieństwa aktywizacji zagrożenia
w zdarzeniu niepożądanym i spowodowanych w związku z tym szkód. [38].
Risk assessment in road transport strategic and business approach
Oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym podejście strategiczne i biznesowe
W swoich opracowaniach, autorzy projektu podkreślają wyraźnie,
w przeciwieństwie do wielu dziedzin techniki, w transporcie drogowym nie
wypracowano do tej pory jednolitej metody zarządzania ryzykiem. Tworzone są
dopiero podstawy odpowiedniej metodyki bazującej na standardowych elementach:
analizie ryzyka, wartościowaniu i ocenie ryzyka oraz na usuwaniu ryzyka
i sterowaniu ryzykiem pozostałym. [38]
Omawiany projekt badawczy analizuje ryzyko w kontekście bezpieczeństwa.
Podejście to jest charakterystyczne dla nauk technicznych. Jest to również główny
nurt badań prowadzonych na świecie w tematyce poświęconej ryzyku
w transporcie drogowym. W obszarze metod zarządzania dominujące jest
natomiast podejście biznesowe do oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym. Uwaga
badaczy jest wówczas skoncentrowana na wynikach logistycznych i kosztowych
związanych z realizacją procesu przewozu drogowego. Ten obszar badań nad
analizą ryzyka jest zdecydowanie mniej rozwinięty w literaturze przedmiotu.
Z tego też względu celem artykułu jest prezentacja dwóch różnych podejść do
oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym podejścia strategicznego i biznesowego.
W pierwszej części artykułu przedstawiono wyniki badań publikacji naukowych,
które ukazały się w ostatnich 10 latach i związane są z oceną ryzyka w transporcie
drogowym. Tematyka tych artykułów koncentruje się przede wszystkim na
aspektach bezpieczeństwa. W drugiej części artykułu rozpatrzono biznesowe
podejście do oceny ryzyka z punktu widzenia przedsiębiorstw transportowych.
Artykuł kończy podsumowanie oraz wytyczne obejmujące kierunki dalszych
2. Metoda prowadzonych badań.
Pierwszym etapem postępowania badawczego było określenie zakresu
przeprowadzanych analiz ryzyka dla transport drogowego, opisywanych
w literaturze światowej. Do przygotowania przeglądu literaturowego wykorzystano
następujące bazy czasopism: ProQuest, Elsevier, ScienceDirect, Wiley Online
Library. Rekordy wykorzystywanych baz przeszukiwane były według
następującego klucza:
hasło „risk assessment” pojawiające się w tytule artykułu oraz
hasło „road transport” pojawiające się w dowolnym fragmencie artykułu.
Zakres wyszukiwania ograniczono do lat 2006 2017, tak aby móc skupić uwagę
na najnowszych trendach badawczych.
W procesie wyszukiwania uzyskano dostęp do 363 artykułów spełniających
wymogi przyjętego klucza. Artykuły te zostały poddane dalszemu procesowi
uporządkowania. Z otrzymanego zbioru artykułów wyeliminowano:
powtórzenia tego samego artykułu, który pojawiał się w różnych bazach
artykuły, w których użycie pojęcia „road transport” było przypadkowe (nie
związane z tematem);
artykuły dotyczące ryzyka skażenia z powodu spalin (skażenie gleby, stężenie
metali ciężkich itp.).
Agnieszka Tubis
Ostatecznie do dalszych badań przyjęto 50 artykułów, pochodzących łącznie
z 31 czasopism recenzowanych. Zestawienie najważniejszych czasopism
przedstawiono w tabeli 1:
Tab. 1 Czasopisma stanowiące podstawę przeprowadzanego przeglądu
Tytuł czasopisma
Transportation Research
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
Process Safety and Environmental Protection
Risk Analysis
Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology
Safety Science
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems
Journal of Hazardous Materials
Journal of Risk Research
Procedia Engineering
Risk Management
Ilość artykułów przypadających na poszczególne lata publikacji przedstawiono na
rysunku 1.
Rys. 1 Rozkład roczników publikowanych artykułów
Jak widać na przedstawionym wykresie większość artykułów pochodzi z lat 2011-
2012 oraz 2016-2017. Można więc stwierdzić, iż tematyka związana z oceną
ryzyka w transporcie nabiera znowu istotnego znaczenia w obszarze prowadzonych
Risk assessment in road transport strategic and business approach
Oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym podejście strategiczne i biznesowe
3. Ocena ryzyka strategicznego w transporcie drogowym
Przeprowadzona analiza publikacji dowodzi, ocena ryzyka w transporcie
drogowym najcześciej koncentruje się na skali makro, a więc dotyczy przede
wszystkim oceny ryzyka strategicznego. Ryzyko strategiczne jest ryzykiem
długookresowym, związanym z decyzjami długofalowymi, podejmowanymi przez
instytucje zarządzające bezpieczeństwem ruchu drogowego na analizowanym
obszarze. Ryzyko strategiczne związane jest z niepewnością dotycząca realizacji celu
strategicznego, jakim jest ochrona życia i zdrowia uczestników ruchu drogowego [31].
Z tego też wzgdu ryzyko strategiczne oceniane jest przede wszystkim przez pryzmat
zagadnień związanych z bezpieczeństwem.
Potwierdza to analiza artykułów pojawiających się w ostatnich 10 latach
w czasopismach naukowych poświęconych tej tematyce. Zagrożenia będące
przedmiotem dokonywanej oceny można przypisać do jednej z 9 wyróżnionych grup:
wypadek drogowy (RA1)
atak terrorystyczny (RA2)
infrastruktura (RA3)
zagrożenie dla zdrowia ludzi (RA4)
zagrożenia dla środowiska (RA5)
nieprawidłowe zachowania kierowców (RA6)
koszty realizacji (RA7)
negatywne zjawiska naturalne (RA8)
inne (RA9).
Najwięcej publikowanych badań koncentruje się na ocenie ryzyka związanego
z wypadkami drogowymi oraz z niezawodnością wykorzystywanej infrastruktury
transportowej. Niektórzy autorzy w swoich badaniach zajmują się oceną ryzyka,
dotyczącego więcej niż jednego z wyróżnionych zagadnień. Szczegółowe zestawienie
liczby artykułów wraz z ich przypisaniem do wyróżnionych grup przedstawiono
w tabeli 2.
Tab. 2 Przypisanie artykułów do wyróżnionych grup tematycznych
Przypisane artykuły
[1], [2], [8], [10], [11], [12], [13], [14],
[15], [16], [18], [27], [34], [35], [37],
[41], [43], [45], [47], [60]
[3], [6]
[3], [7], [8], [11], [12], [17], [21], [24],
[28], [29], [33], [36], [42], [43], [46],
[48], [49], [50], [53], [55]
[23], [26], [55]
[9], [13], [14], [15], [16], [26]
[11], [52], [56]
[17], [22]
[4], [19], [20], [22], [25], [40], [57]
Agnieszka Tubis
W koncepcji zarządzania ryzykiem, ryzyko ujmuje się w kategoriach zdarzenia,
które jeśli się wydarzy, negatywnie wpłynie na osiągane przez organizację cele
[58]. Analizując przebieg procesu transportu weryfikuje się osiągnięcie celu przez
pryzmat trzech kryterów oceniających:
kryterium bezpieczeństwa;
kryterium dotrzymania zakładanych kosztów;
kryterium dotrzymania deklarowanych parametrów logistycznych.
Kolejnym etapem prac badawczych było w związku z tym zakwalifikowanie
opisywanych wyników do jednego z trzech kryteriów oceniających poprawność
realizowanego przewozu. Wyniki przeprowadzonej klasyfikacji przedstawiono
w formie udziałów procentowych na rysunku 2.
Rys. 2 Przypisanie opisywanych badań do kryteriów
oceniających poprawność procesu transportu
Szczegółowa analiza zawartości merytorycznej przedstawionych w artykułach
badań dowodzi słuszności spostrzeżenia, iż większość publikacji poświęconych
zagadnieniom oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym koncentruje się przede
wszystkim na aspektach związanych z bezpieczeństwem realizowanych
4. Ocena ryzyka z punktu widzenia przedsiębiorstwa transportowego
Długoterminowe ryzyko jest również przedmiotem analizy przedsiębiorstw
transportowych. Obszar analizy w tym przypadku dotyczy czynników
strategicznych, technologicznych, społecznych, prawnych i środowiskowych [54].
Czynniki te determinują trendy rozwojowe gospodarki i regionu oraz związane
z nimi ryzyko na poziomie przedsiębiorstwa. Należą do nich ryzyko błędnej oceny
trendów w rozwoju przedsiębiorstwa, ryzyko prognozy oraz ryzyko nieosiągnięcia
strategicznych celów przedsiębiorstwa [54].
Risk assessment in road transport strategic and business approach
Oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym podejście strategiczne i biznesowe
Jednakże do zagadnień związanych z bezpieczeństwem ruchu drogowego,
przedsiębiorstwa przewozowe bardzo często podchodzą zgodnie z teorią
stochastyczną. Zgodnie z nią zjawisko wypadków drogowych ma charakter czysto
losowy, a człowiek nie ma nad nimi żadnej kontroli [30]. Z tego względu
najbardziej popularnym sposobem zarządzania ryzykiem z tym związanym jest
wykup przez przewoźników pakietu ubezpieczeń. Przewoźnik nie jest więc
zainteresowany analizą ryzyka związanego z charakterystyką rejestrowanych
wypadków drogowych, jeżeli tylko nie ma miejsca nagminne uczestnictwo
wybranych kierowców w takich zdarzeniach.
Ocena ryzyka, będąca przedmiotem zainteresowania przedsiębiorstw transportu
drogowego, koncentruje się jednak przede wszystkim na zagrożeniach
zakłócających poprawność realizacji procesu przewozu ładunku z punktu A do
punktu B. Jak stwierdził bowiem Wilson [59] to właśnie zakłócenia w transporcie,
które występują między dostawcą a magazynem / dystrybutorem, mają największy
wpływ na wydajność łańcucha dostaw. Z tego względu zarządzający transportem
oceniając ryzyko, przyjmują zazwyczaj perspektywę bliskiego horyzontu
czasowego, a w związku z tym ich analizy ukierunkowane są na ocenę ryzyka
operacyjnego. Ryzyko to jest rozważane jako ryzyko niedostatecznej skuteczności
działania z perspektywy celu operacyjnego (bieżącego) tego działania. Polega ono
więc na możliwości niespełnienia oczekiwań technicznych, efektywności lub
kwalifikacji, a także umyślnego popełnienia szkody [61]. Ocenie podlega
w związku z tym skuteczność procesów wewnętrznych przedsiębiorstwa oraz ich
odporność na zakłócenia, tak by organizacja mogła realizować swoje cele.
W związku z powyższym uwaga menedżerów, odpowiedzialnych za ocenę ryzyka
towarzyszącego przewozom towarowym w transporcie drogowym,
skoncentrowana jest na spełnieniu wymagań dotyczących[51]:
przyjętych parametrów logistycznych dla dostawy (terminowość, kompletność);
warunków przewozu (spełnienie wymogów dotyczących bezpieczeństwa
przewozu czas jazdy, średnia prędkość na trasie, zabezpieczenia towaru);
warunków wykorzystywanej floty transportowej;
poprawności zarządzania dokumentacją;
jakości usługi.
Punktem odniesienia w tym przypadku jest ocena realizacji obsługi logistycznej
świadczonej przez przewoźnika, obejmująca etap organizacji transportu i samego
przewozu. Oceniane ryzyko dotyczy niepewności realizacji celu biznesowego
założonego dla procesu transportu, a mianowicie wykonania usługi przewozowej
zgodnie z przyjętymi warunkami logistycznymi, jakościowymi oraz kosztowymi.
5. Podsumowanie
Przegląd artykułów poświęconych tematyce oceny ryzyka w transporcie drogowym
dowodzi, iż zagadnienie to jest aktualnie przedmiotem wielu badań prowadzonych
na świecie. Główna uwaga badaczy skoncentrowana jest przede wszystkim na
analizie ryzyka przeprowadzanej pod kątem bezpieczeństwa na drogach.
Agnieszka Tubis
W szczególności koncentrują się oni na przyczynach i konsekwencjach wypadków
drogowych oraz na niezawodności infrastruktury transportowej.
Z drugiej strony pojawia się zapotrzebowanie na modele analizy ryzyka
dostosowane do potrzeb decyzyjnych przedsiębiorstw transportowych.
Menedżerowie odpowiedzialni za organizację przewozu, w swojej ocenie ryzyka
kierują się przede wszystkim celami biznesowymi przedsiębiorstwa. Zjawisko
wypadków drogowych i zagrożenia wynikające z nieprawidłowo przygotowanej
infrastruktury traktują jako czynniki zewnętrzne, będące poza ich kontrolą. Ich
uwaga skoncentrowana jest przede wszystkim na procesach wewnętrznych
przedsiębiorstwa i możliwości ich doskonalenia na podstawie przeprowadzonej
oceny ryzyka operacyjnego. Z tego też względu konieczne jest opracowanie
wielokryterialnej metody oceny ryzyka dla procesu transportu drogowego, która
odpowiadać będzie potrzebom decyzyjnym kadry menedżerskiej
w przedsiębiorstwach transportowych.
Badania przedstawione w niniejszym artykule są pierwszym etapem projektu
„Identyfikacja zbiorów informacji zasilających system oceny ryzyka w transporcie
drogowym w aspekcie bezpieczeństwa i spełnienia standardów logistycznych”
finansowanych w ramach programu MINIATURA 1. Kolejne etapy
ukierunkowane zostaną na identyfikację informacji gromadzonych przez
przedsiębiorstwa transportowe na potrzeby analizy i oceny ryzyka w prowadzonej
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... A review of literature conducted by the authors [11] and a review of international research projects [12,13,14] helped to identify two areas from a number factors that have an effect on safety. From the authors' perspective these areas are of particular importance: the effect of weather and time of day. ...
... Przeprowadzony przez autorów przegląd literatury [11], a także przedstawiony w ramach międzynarodowych projektów badawczych [12,13,14] pozwolił z szeregu grup czynników determinujących poziom bezpieczeństwa, wyróżnić te, które mają szczególne znaczenie: wpływ warunków pogodowych oraz pory dnia. ...
Full-text available
When transport is analysed for its safe delivery the focus is mainly on assessing the safety of roads and the risk of undesired events. These include road accidents, an occurrence which is relatively rare and random. Randomness means that accidents depend on several factors which are partly deterministic and partly. The authors conducted an assessment of how weather conditions affect the risk of an accident due to the factor’s significant contribution to road accidents. This case involves a combination of two sources of hazard: external conditions in the form of the weather which are beyond the driver’s control and anthropotechnical factors that address vehicle condition and driver behaviour controlled by the driver.
... Druhá časť je venovaná podnikateľskému prístupu k hodnoteniu rizika z pohľadu manažérov dopravného procesu. Predmetom analýzy publikácie je operačné riziko, ktoré sa zameriava na riziká ovplyvňujúce implementáciu dopravného procesu a dosiahnutiu operačného cieľa spoločnosti (Tubis, 2018). "Managing risks through ISO 31000: A critical analysis" publikácia sa venuje riadeniu rizík, ktoré predstavuje veľkú výzvu pre organizácie. ...
Full-text available
Dopravná infraštruktúra predstavuje zložitý komplex prvkov, ktoré sú medzi sebou poprepájané vzájomnými väzbami tak, aby dokázali zastrešiť všetky požadované funkcie. Dopravná infraštruktúra vzhľadom na svoju významnosť bola v Slovenskej republike zaradená medzi sektory kritickej infraštruktúry v zákone č. 45/2011 Z. z. o kritickej infraštruktúre. Súčasťou dopravnej infraštruktúry sú objekty, ktoré je možné zaradiť medzi prvky kritickej infraštruktúry. Ochrana prvkov kritickej infraštruktúry by mala byť prioritou, pretože ich zničenie alebo prípadné narušenie by mohlo spôsobiť narušenie fungovania dopravnej infraštruktúry (Zákon č. 45/2011 Z. z.). Na zabezpečenie ochrany dopravných objektov zaradených do kritickej infraštruktúry je možné uplatniť princípy manažérstva rizika. Aplikácia manažérstva rizika si vyžaduje poznanie normy ISO 31 000, ktorá predstavuje efektívny nástroj na identifikáciu, hodnotenie, analýzu a následne samotné riadenie rizík. Výsledky získané pomocou aplikácie manažérstva rizík môžu posunúť ochranu dopravných prvkov kritickej infraštruktúry na vyššiu úroveň. Cieľom článku je analyzovanie informačných zdrojov pojednávajúcich o problematike a následná aplikácia manažérstva rizika na dopravný objekt, ktorý je možné považovať za potenciálny prvok kritickej infraštruktúry.
... Additional support for these purposes was received by the provinces with the lowest zoning rates. Road transport, due to the largest share of handling the transport needs of cargo and the population, is the main mode of transport in Poland (Tubis, 2018), which is why road infrastructure has become a priority in the disposal of EU funds. Therefore, the analyses contained in this article concern the development of regional road infrastructure in Poland. ...
... Transport is inextricably linked to the economy of each country. The number of shipments of many goods, including dangerous goods, which pose a particular threat to the environment and human life, is increasing every year [1,10]. An extremely important factor in such an approach is the analysis of the planning of transport routes, particular for dangerous goods. ...
Authors in the article presentan original method of risk assessment, taking “human errors” into account in its assumptions, fillingan existing methodological gap in this field of study. This article presents a general concept of a method:estimating risk assessment and modeling human factors as the main cause of a road accident. Fuzzy logic techniques have been used to generate the value of the parameter characterizing the human factor. The authors’“band” model is used in the calculation of the probability of a traffic accident in the transportation of hazardous products. Literary and original research has been conducted in the development of the model. This new approach to risk assessment takes into account in particular the effectof the human factor on the probability of an accident, as well as the diversity of the different segmentsmaking up the total route of a dangerous good.This method is useful for estimating the variability of risk,taking into account the human factor both on planned and existing routes depending on the categorization of road sections, the division into classes of dangerous goods, the effectof possible scenarios,and risks on transport safety.
Conference Paper
Full-text available
Rapidly changing markets, actors, new legal regulations, information and data intensity have increased uncertainty, and as a result, businesses that want to continue operating in the market need to pay more attention to risk criteria. Risk can be explained as unplanned event which affects a business's overall performance. Logistics practices that develop and change continuously show a great variety such as weather and road accidents to faults in operations. Logistics risks have important roles in supply chains efficiency as the risks in logistics may adversely affect all parts of the supply chains and lead to decreases in business performances. Multi-criteria decision making methods are commonly used in risk prioritisation. In this study, a newly developed method called Plithogenic PIvot Pairwise RElative Criteria Importance Assessment (PIPRECIA) Method is used to prioritise logistics risks. For identifying weights, data were collected from three experts in the logistics field. Six logistics risks were considered and according to the results of Plithogenic PIPRECIA Transportation-related risk is determined as the most significant risk.
The chapter aims to present the methods that are used to carry out parking measurements. Technological progress allows for the search for new solutions aimed at facilitating measurements in parking. As a result, the time needed to collect appropriate data that allows for analysis is shorter. Conducting this type of research is necessary due to the increasing share of individual transport in travel. The chapter presents the parking characteristics determined based on data collected automatically—from magnetic sensors. The data included parking spaces in the Paid Parking Zone (PPZ) and Dynamic Parking Information (DPI) in Gliwice. The results of the analyzes allow for the conclusion that the highest values of parking space occupancy and the rotation indicator occurred on working days from 07: 00 to 15:00. However, most drivers left their vehicle for a period from 10 min to 2 h and 8–24 h. The analysis was performed as a part of research work entitled “Analysis of parking characteristics in the conditions of PPZ and DPI functioning in selected areas of GZM cities”.
The number of road traffic accidents has been on the rise worldwide with severe impacts. Road transport risk management has been one of the most important issues in the transport systems during the last several years. Where new technical solutions have been developed towards ensuring road and driver safety. The paper is focused on the telematics concept for the integrated management of road transport risks. Firstly, all the potential risks and transport engineering problems were identified. A new comprehensive framework for managing transport risks was developed on the basis of information and communications technology (telematics, ICT). This framework contains advanced strategies and processes for successful transport risk management using telematics. The paper presents the efficiency of the proposed framework in improving road safety, preventing avoidable accidents and reducing the probability of critical accidents.
Transport is an area for which there are numerous studies devoted to the assessment of the occurring risk. Data collected for risk assessment depend on many factors. The demand for information to carry out the required analyses depends on the type of transport, the type of transported products, the objectives set for the tasks being performed, as well as the requirements for the implementation of the process itself. It is therefore reasonable to present the differences that exist in the information demand for risk assessment, which is carried out for the road transport process by different decision-making bodies. The purpose of this article is therefore to present the results of research on the identification of information needs of decision-makers in the risk assessment at the strategic and operational level. The information needs for strategic risk assessment were determined based on a literature review. The information needs for operational risk assessment were determined based on research conducted among managers, who plan road transport in a selected company. Finally, the performance measurement system for managers was determined based on the identified information needs.
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Pedestrians are vulnerable road users; therefore, they require special attention. In the pedestrian infrastructure, the greatest risk involves pedestrian crossings because they are the conflict points with vehicular traffic. A method to assess pedestrian crossing infrastructure in terms of road safety is presented. The method involves observation of the associated infrastructure and environment, as well as measurements of vehicular and pedestrian behaviour. The assessment involved 17 pedestrian crossings along a main road in the town of Sułkowice, Poland, with the aim of demonstrating the universality of the procedure. Only two of the crossings were found to have the lowest risk, while five were considered as high risk; none was assigned the highest risk score.
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In this paper, a pragmatic and goal oriented system for risk analysis in road tunnels is described. It is particularly focusing on mortality risks in case of a road tunnel accident. It is a deterministic approach combining three major components: a) vehicle distribution in a tunnel; b) smoke propagation in case of a fire; and c) people evacuation (escape) component. The major improvement of this approach is in capturing the knowledge often provided only by experts into a robust and pragmatic system available to all decision makers. This is achieved through a large number of scenarios combining different configurations of road tunnels (e.g. different number of lanes, different speed limits) and the travel demand (e.g. different structure of the flow, different volumes of traffic) which were prepared and evaluated through microscopic traffic simulation. The resulting scenarios with the information about the number of vehicles in different tunnel sections were obtained. The results describe most of the existing tunnels and situations and can be used universally. Similarly, the people evacuation component can be evaluated in a general form. The results can be manually updated to suit any particular road tunnel which can differ for example by the availability or quality of warning and information systems. The remaining task is to create a physical model of the real tunnel and to model the smoke and fire propagation. All these components were combined into the CAPITA software that was developed as a part of the research project HADES (supported by the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic). The CAPITA software is presented in the last chapter of this paper. The scenarios available off-line are in fact a knowledge base available to experts as well as decision makers and lead to a higher level of comprehension of the developments in case of fire and significantly speed up preparation of a risk analysis.
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Tunnels are specific engineering structures, which are constructed in order to shorten transport routes and improve road safety. Therefore, safe operation of tunnel is very important. Tunnel Traffic & Operation Simulator of the University of Žilina in combination with unique softwares allows a research of the possible operating conditions during a normal service and model emergency situations. Risk analysis of road tunnels is in Slovakia managed by technical specifications TP 041 (TP 02/2011) “Risk analysis for Slovak road tunnels” where is defined precise methodology of risk analysis with regard to safety of road tunnels users. This technical specifications, based on the Austrian tunnel risk analysis model TuRisMo, defines and explaines exactly a risk model to calculate risk in road tunnels.
This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District 1 of Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District 1 yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.
Conference Paper
The EC Framework Programme 6 Integrated Project Open Architecture and Spatial Data Infrastructure for Risk Management (ORCHESTRA, is concerned with the creation of an information technology architecture and associated web services for risk management. Its aim is to improve the interoperability of risk management data and software and influence international software standards (such as those provided by the Open Geospatial Consortium) in the context of the EC INSPIRE directive. In particular, multi-risk and cross-border issues are addressed since these are important within the European context. In order that the outcome of the project is useful in real-life risk management situations a number of pilot projects are being undertaken to test different aspects of the developed service networks. It is also expected that these pilots will also demonstrate the utility of the ORCHESTRA project to end users. This paper discusses the pilot project being undertaken by BRGM, JRC and Ordnance Survey with the collaboration of local partners in the French-Italian border region between Nice and Genoa. The basis of the project is the evaluation of risk to the road network and the impact of road network disruption by, for example: earthquakes, landslides, floods, fires and chemical spills. Road closures can have a dramatic impact on the economic, social and functional life of a region and these impacts can spread far from the site of the blockage and, even, across international borders. The region chosen for this pilot project is especially prone to hazardous events and also, due to the lack of redundancy in the road network within the region, disruption to a major route can have a large effect. This pilot will seek to create a distributed network of web services that will access hazard, route and traffic information held within databases based at the data providers.
A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) regarding dangerous goods vehicles (DGVs) running through road tunnels was set up. Peak hourly traffic volumes (VHP), percentage of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), and failure of the emergency ventilation system were investigated in order to assess their impact on the risk level. The risk associated with an alternative route running completely in the open air and passing through a highly populated urban area was also evaluated. The results in terms of social risk, as F/N curves, show an increased risk level with an increase the VHP, the percentage of HGVs, and a failure of the emergency ventilation system. The risk curves of the tunnel investigated were found to lie both above and below those of the alternative route running in the open air depending on the type of dangerous goods transported. In particular, risk was found to be greater in the tunnel for two fire scenarios (no explosion). In contrast, the risk level for the exposed population was found to be greater for the alternative route in three possible accident scenarios associated with explosions and toxic releases. Therefore, one should be wary before stating that for the transport of dangerous products an itinerary running completely in the open air might be used if the latter passes through a populated area. The QRA may help decisionmakers both to implement additional safety measures and to understand whether to allow, forbid, or limit circulation of DGVs.
Trucking is the backbone of Indian freight transportation as 63% freight movement is carried out via road. Trucking industry needs to focus on the operational efficiency, but at the same time, it is extremely important to minimize the likelihood of occurrence of the risk events with a strategic risk response plan during operation of the industry. Indian trucking industry is facing many risky situations such as fragmentation in the industry, underutilization of trucks, shortage of drivers and many others issues. To compete and sustain in the globalized scenario, it is necessary to quantify the perilous situations facing the trucking industry and develop an appropriate mitigation plan to handle such situations. This paper identifies various failure modes of trucking industry, their effects and possible actions for risk mitigation. The paper also proposes a Modified Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (MFMEA) to prioritize the mitigation strategy, using Modified Risk Mitigation Number (MRMN) approach and applies Interval type-2 Fuzzy FMEA to rank the risk factors. The proposed approach takes into account the ranked weightage of the risk factors and personal opinions of the experts for computation of risk mitigation matrix.
We introduce a method for assessing the influence of various road, weather and traffic conditions on traffic accidents. The idea is to contrast the distribution of conditions as seen by the driver involved in an accident with their distribution as seen by an arbitrary driver. The latter is considered as a variant of the notion of Palm probability of a point process, and it is easy to compute when road, weather and traffic measurement data are available. The method includes straightforward assessment of the statistical significance of the findings. We then study a single large example case, Ring-road I in Helsinki observed over five years, and present a comprehensive analysis of the influence of traffic, road and weather conditions on traffic accidents. Our results are in line with existing knowledge; for example, the traffic volume as such has hardly any influence on accidents, whereas the afternoon rush hours are considerably more risky than the morning ones, and heavy rain and snowfall as well as reduced visibility in general increase the accident risk substantially. The notion of Palm probability offers a transparent and uniform approach to such questions, and the proposed approach can be applied as a semi-automatic risk assessment tool prior to deeper analyses.