Reply to "Comment on 'An exceptional summer during the South Pole race of 1911/12'"

Full text

Reply to “Comment on
‘An Exceptional Summer
during the South Pole Race
of 1911/12 ’ ”
—Ryan L. Fogt, Megan e. Jones,
and Chad a. goeRgens
Depar tment of Geography, and Scalia Laboratory for
Atmospheric Analysis
The Ohio Universit y
Athens, Ohio
—susan soLoM on
Depar tment of E arth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts
—JuLie M. Jones
Depar tment of Geography
University of Sheffield
Sheffield, United Kingdom
DOI:10.1175/BA MS -D -18 -0 08 8.1
©2018 American Meteorological Society
For information regarding reuse of thi s content a nd general
copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy.
O ne of the primary concerns raised by the com-
ments of Sienicki (2018) is the assumption
made about the underlying nature of the data we
presented in our original paper (Fogt et al. 2017). To
address these concerns, Fig. 1 of this reply displays sev-
eral statistical values calculated over the range of the
36 years of daily mean data from the European C entre
for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) that were used
along the tracks of the Amundsen (Fig. 1a) and Scott
(Fig. 1b) polar parties. To demonstrate that the data
are approximately normally distributed, Figs. 1a and
1b display the skew and kurtosis (shown as differ-
ences from 3, the kurtosis of a normal distribution)
of 36 daily values along the tracks of each polar party.
Although t he exact distributions of skew and kurtosis
are challenging to determine with limited data, the
assumption of normality is ty pica lly rejected for large
absolute values of both skew and kurtosis. For the
Amundsen data , assumptions of normality of the daily
mean temperature data are clearly violated a few times
along their journey, corresponding to high positive
skew and kurtosis values in Fig. 1a. These deviations
from normality can be clearly seen in Fig. 4a of Fogt
et al. (2017) when the maximum temperature anomaly
was well above the +2 standard deviation range, indi-
cating a strong positive skew to the underlying data.
For the Scott along-track temperature data, the as-
sumption of normality appears valid nearly through-
out, with an exception in mid-January d isplay ing both
high positive skew and kurtosis. Thus, the response
in Fig. 1 is consistent with the data in Fig. 5 of Fogt
et al. (2017), and the statement in the paper that the
data are “approximately normally distributed” [italics
added] is valid [i.e., the skew (0.3365) and kurtosis
(–0.3013) for the data in Fig. 5 are relatively small,
indicating that the data depicted in Fig. 5 are in fact
approximately normally distributed]. The bin size in
Fig. 5 makes the data visually appear more positively
skewed than t hey are statistical ly; sensitivity to the bin
size and window lengths were extensively evaluated in
the supplemental material (Fig. ES10) of our published
paper. Our paper’s focus on exceptional conditions
during December 1911 for both polar parties and the
change in conditions from early to late February 1912
for Scott indeed highlights periods when the data
are approximately normally distributed in Figs. 1a
and 1b. Furthermore, our conclusions of exceptional
conditions were also linked to record values compared
to the 36 years of ERA-Interim values, which would
hold true irrespective of the underlying distribution
of the data. To determine separately if the data are
independently distributed, we plot the maximum and
minimum values of the lag-1–9 autocorrelation from
the full distribution of the 36 years of ERA-Interim
daily mean temperatures along the tracks in Figs. 1a
and 1b at each day; throughout the entire tracks these
extreme values of autocorrelations remain close to
zero, confirming that the daily mean temperature
anomaly along the track is independent of the tem-
perature at that same location in any other year during
1979–2016. Therefore, for nearly every day on the track
of both polar parties, the data are independent and
identically distributed.
Another concern raised by Sienicki (2018) is that
the averaging of sparse measurements to calculate
the daily mean (often only three measurements or
less a day) does not compare to the true daily mean
value averaged using the full range of data. Although
this is unavoidable given the available well-exposed
sling thermometer data collected during the expedi-
tions, we evaluate the consistent averaging used for
the reanalysis data in Fig. 1c to approximate this
approach. This figure shows the difference between
daily mean observed temperatures at South Pole
2143
OC TOBER 2018AMER ICAN METEORO LOGICAL SOCIETY |

Fig. 1. The daily values of skew, kurtosis (plotted as differences from 3), and
maximum and minimum lag-1–9 autocorrelations based on the 1979–2016
bilinearly interpolated along-track ERA-Interim daily mean temperature
data for the (a) Amundsen and (b) Scott polar parties. (c) Differences (°C)
in the daily means during 2001–15 of observed temperatures at Amundsen–
Scott South Pole station calculated using four-times-daily synoptic reports
at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC and based on the average of 24 hourly
observations per day.
station from 2001 to 2015 computed using only the
four-times-daily synoptic reports (0000, 0600, 1200,
and 1800 UTC) and the full 24 hourly observations.
At South Pole station, the differences in the daily
means calculated using the two approaches rarely
differ by more than 2°C, and during the summer,
the focus of the analysis in Fogt et al. (2017), the dif-
ference rarely exceeds 1°C. This comparison would
suggest that averaging three values per day along the
plateau routes of both polar parties would adequately
approximate the true daily mean. Given that our
main conclusions of the exceptional conditions are
frequently based on anomalies in excess of 5°C (and
on the plateau for Amundsen, or near the plateau for
Scott), this comparison suggests that these daily mea n
temperatures would still emerge as exceptional given
the small sensitivity to calculating the daily mean
temperature at South Pole station in Fig. 1c.
In addition, five of the concerns raised by Sienicki
(2018) mischaracterize the focus and content of our
work or its conclusions. First, our analysis focuses on
the conditions during the entire summer of 1911/12
experienced by both parties, and we note at the end
of the introduction that our paper is not focused on
the later outcomes of each polar party. As stated in
the conclusions, our central theme is the particularly
exceptional conditions in December 1911, not the
central theme of “Antarctic weather as the main cause
of Scott’s and his fellow explorers’ deaths,” as asserted
in Sienicki’s (2018, p. 2142) comments. Second,
Sienicki questions the accuracy of the reanalysis
data given its resolution as compared to local mea-
surements, overlooking
the fact that we specifically
examined the limitations
of ERA-Interim and evalu-
ated potential limitations
by comparing our results
as appropriate to other
sources of data. These
included the measurements
at the base camps during
the expeditions, as well
as continuous measure-
ments at McMurdo, the
Amundsen–Scott South
Pole station, and the Henry
automatic weather station
on the Antarctic Plateau.
We also evaluate the clima-
tology of ERA-Interim in
the supplemental material
(Fig. ES2), and note in our
paper and the supplemen-
tal material that along the
Ross Ice Shelf the reanaly-
sis captures many regional
signatures depicted in the
array of available automatic
weather stations despite its
resolution; although local
variability may at times be
incompletely captured, the
important effect of topog-
raphy is evident in Figs. ES2
and ES3. Third, contrary
to the claim by Sienicki,
the use of bilinearly in-
terpolated ERA-Interim
2144 OC TOBER 2018
|

data in our work ensures, due to the convergence of
meridians at the South Pole, that the spatial resolu-
tion between longitude grid points is closer than 15
geographical miles (1 geographical mile ≈ 1.885 km)
during the primary period of interest for both par-
ties. Fourth, to ensure consistent data throughout
the period of interest, since we are focusing on an
unusual shift in the observations, our paper uses
only the well-exposed sling thermometer data. These
data end when the Scott logbook indicates that their
sling thermometer was broken. We clearly state our
rationale for this choice, and the paper covers the
summer temperatures [December–February (DJF)]
as well as the transition to colder temperatures in
the first few days of March. We are not covering the
ensuing days at all, so the discussion of that topic is
inappropriate here. Whether one of the authors has
presented other publications elsewhere that focus on
later times in the season using other instruments is
not germane to Fogt et al. (2017). The publication of
the present paper should not be used as a springboard
for debate on other material and issues not presented
here, as Sienicki’s comments attempt to do. In fact,
most of the analysis for the data along the Scott track
analyzed in our paper end on 5 March 1912, since
the only day after this to have at least three sling-
thermometer observations taken was 8 March 1912;
5 March therefore marks the end of the continuous
three-times-daily measurements taken by the Scott
polar party. As such, our work supports earlier
research efforts (Solomon and Stearns 1999; Solomon
2001) by noting that the conditions in early March
1912 were much colder than average, as we claim in
our paper. Fifth, the claim that this single drop in
temperatures in early March 1912 was due to global
El Niño and the southern annular mode (SAM) is
another mischaracterization of our conclusions,
which were that conditions during early December
1911 and the warm conditions in early February 1912
were consistent with the typical climate impacts
during El Niño and negative SAM index years [we
(Fogt et al. 2017, p. 2198) specifically state "the sum-
mer of 1911/12 was marked by one of the strongest
negative SAM years since 1850)" and "the summer of
1911/12 was also marked with El Niño conditions";
note that italics are added for emphasis].
Finally, we note that in analyzing this tempera-
ture change experienced by Scott and his compan-
ions, we do not make an assumption or hypothesis
that past streaks influence the likelihood of future
streaks, as asserted by Sienicki, but rather examine
the difference in two means (early February vs late
February 1912) compared to the distribution of the
difference of these means from the ERA-Interim
dataset, again based on 36 years of data for each
mean. As stated previously, the sensitivity of the
exact timing of the means was explored in our sup-
porting information (Fig. ES10), and all distribu-
tions as well as the further analysis presented in this
reply indicate that this difference in the two means
was rare (probability p < 0.05), justifying our conclu-
sion that the conditions during the South Pole race
were indeed exceptional.
REFERENCES
Fogt, R. L., M. E. Jones, S. Solomon, J. M. Jones, and
C. A. Goergens, 2017: An exceptional summer during
the South Pole race of 1911/12. Bull. Amer. Meteor.
Soc., 98, 2189–2200, ht tps://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS
-D-17-0013.1.
Sienicki, K., 2018: Comments on “An exceptional sum-
mer during the South Pole race of 1911/12.” Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., https://doi.org /10.1175/BAMS
-D-17-0282.1, in press.
Solomon, S., 2001: The Coldest March: Scott’s Fatal
Antarctic Expedition. Yale University Press, 416 pp.
Solomon, S., and C. R. Stearns, 1999: On the role of the
weather in the deaths of R. F. Scott and his compan-
ions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 96, 13 012–13 016,
https://doi .org/10.1073/pna s.96.23.13012 .
2145
OC TOBER 2018AMER ICAN METEORO LOGICAL SOCIETY |

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