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International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7 (4.15) (2018)
204-208
International Journal of Engineering &
Technology
Website:
www.sciencepubco.com/index.php/IJET
Research
paper
The Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Carbon
Dioxide (Co2) Emission in Malaysia
Norimah
Rambeli@Ramli,
Norasibah Abdul Jal
il,
Emilda Hashim, Maryam Mahdinezhad, Asmawi Hashim,
Belee, &
Syazwani
Mohd
Bakri
Faculty of Management and Economics, Sultan Idris Education University (UPSI), 35900, Tanjong Malim
Perak.
*Correspondence author E mail: norimah@fpe.upsi.edu.my
Abst
r
a
c
t
This study tries to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product, electricity product, net trade, electricity consumption
and
oil price on carbon dioxide (Co2) emission in Malaysia. Thus, it uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in structuring the model
estimation. By utilizing yearly time series data from 1980 to 2017, this study focuses on economics and statistical criteria analyses.
According to sign analysis, the results suggest that, gross domestic product, electricity product, net trade and energy consumption affect
carbon dioxides (Co2) positively. In contrast, the oil price affects carbon dioxides (Co2) negatively. Furthermore, the results in statistical
criteria conclude that the gross domestic product, electricity product and energy consumption are the dominant factor s that influence
carbon dioxides combustion in the long run in Malaysia.
Key words: Car bon
Di
oxide (C o
2
),
Gr
oss Domest ic
Pr
oduct, Macr oec onomi c Variables, Ener gy Cons umpti on,
Or
di
nary Least
Squ are
Mod el.
1. Introduction
Climate change is the biggest threat to nature and humanity in the
21st century (Rahman, 2009). The climate change due to rising
global temperature has been a great concern among researchers all
over the world. One of the major threats created from the
phenomenal changes is global warming (Ab-Rahim & Teoh,
2016). Global warming is caused by the effect of increasing
average temperature of earth surface from over emitting of
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). The emission of
CO2 and other gases will remain in the atmosphere for many
years to come while making it almost impossible to eliminate.
Should humans are unable to control the surge of global warming
activities, we will witness the rise of sea levels rising due to The
Arctic ice melting and even higher frequency of tropical storms
hitting the earth in the future. There have been various studies
focusing on the environmental issues and trying to restrain from
severe global warming, as it may lead to serious matter.
Malaysia is one of the countries that depend on its land production
to generate its national income. In Malaysia, National Policy in
climate change has been enforced to provide a framework that
could be used as guidance for all government agencies, industries,
community as well as other stakeholders in order to face
challenges in climate change scenario. The policy has been
imposed to ensure climate-resilient development to fulfill national
aspiration for the sustainability of its environment.
The imposed policy is mainly to control the climate change
through wise management of resources and ameliorate
environmental conservation resulting in strengthening Malaysian
economic competitiveness and improved life quality of the nation.
Therefore, all policymakers need to integrate and strengthen
policies, plans and programs throughout the country for resilience
development reinforcement while finding ways to eliminate any
worse impact regarding climate change. To emphasize,
strengthening institutional and implementation capacity will
produce better opportunities to reduce the negative impact of
climate change. Truthfully, climate change is not solely an issue
concerning Malaysia but all countries worldwide, as well. In fact,
it has become a global threat and need a global solution to
mitigate the greenhouse gases emission. Researchers have been
trying to assess the impact of climate change on crops in order to
sustain food supplies. In Malaysia, by using adaptation strategy,
including crop management, soil management, cap and trade the
pollution (Co2) as well as irrigation management have been
proposed to farmers in order to minimize the impact of climate
change. Nevertheless, the major concern is still revolved around
CO2 emissions, since this issue cannot be controlled by Malaysia
alone. From previous studies, there are many methods used in
reducing CO2 combustion.
Thus far, the aggregated potential mitigation of CO2 emissions in
the manufacturing industry remains unclear. Prior to designing
appropriate policies, a clear elucidation of potentially mitigating
CO2 emission is necessary. As starter, the potential exoneration of
CO2 emission of the manufacturing industry has been broadly
discussed at that particular sector. Nonetheless, studies at
industrial level on this subject are very rare.
Second, the changes in the emission factors of electricity and heat
have been ignored in most industry-level studies, when estimating
CO2 emission. Currently, the method proposed by the IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is widely
adopted to estimate CO2 emission, which is mainly based on
energy consumption and carbon emission factors (IPCC, 2006).
Theoretically, the carbon emission factors of all types of energy
Copyright © 2018 Authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted
use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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are changing over time due to advances and efficiency in energy
utilization. In practice, changes in fossil fuel emission factors have
been assumed to be constant because of data availability and tiny
variations, whereas the changes in the carbon emission factor of
electricity has been considered by many scholars (Mu et al., 2013;
Wang et al., 2013). Unfortunately, the changes in electricity
emission factor were neglected by most previous studies done.
Third, the emission coefficient effect has been ignored by most
studies when analyzing the driving forces behind the change in
CO
2
emission. Currently, the decomposition method has been
widely applied to identify the factors influencing CO
2
emissions
in the manufacturing industry (Diakoulaki and Mandaraka, 2007;
Akbostancı et al., 2011; Hammond and Norman, 2012;
Sheinbaum-Pardo et al., 2012). Based on the regression method,
changes in CO
2
emissions can be utilized from many sectors,
namely, macroeconomic, microeconomic, social-demography and
many other factors.
2. Literature Review
Energy consumption has been increased all over the Association
of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) countries along with the
continuous growth in their urbanization and industrialization (Ab-
Rahim & Teoh, 2016). Study in the ASEAN countries and other
three countries were conducted to investigate the determinants of
carbon dioxide (CO2) emission since 1991 to 2010. In the study,
researchers employ several types of models in their research
methodology, including Panel Unit Root Test, the Pedroni (Eagle-
Granger Based) Cointegration Test and the Granger-Casuality
Test and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). These tests
are run with selected variables by researchers such as total
primary energy consumption per capita, total electricity net
consumption, gross domestic product per capita, urban population,
trade and the length of the road network in order to show its
connection to the CO2 emission. Resulting from the Granger-
Causality test, there is a bi-directional causality between CO2
emission and energy consumption. In the short-run, there are
unidirectional causalities between economic growth, CO2
emission, energy consumption and trade openness. The same
results of unilateral relationship apply to urbanization, electricity
consumption and economic growth as well as trade openness,
energy consumption and CO2 emission. Then, electricity
consumption is unilaterally related to economic growth.
Meanwhile, there is no causal relationship between transportation
and other variables. It can be concluded that all variables can be
used to determine the CO2 emission in the ASEAN+3 countries
except for the length of the road network.
CO2 emission has been considered to be one of the most suitable
indicators to design more effective global policies in preventing
the climate change from getting even worst (Remuzgo & Sarabia,
2015). In recent years, there has been an increasing deployment of
wind-powered generation technology in electricity networks
across Europe (Curtis, Lynch & Zubiate, 2016). North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale circulation pattern driving
climate variability in northwestern Europe. A study by using
Monte Carlo approach assesses the impact of NAO on CO2
emissions from the wider electricity system, generating hourly
wind speed time-series data, electricity demand and fuel input
data. The results confirm that there is a significant impact on
monthly mean wind speeds, wind power output and CO2
emissions from the entire electricity system. It shows that CO2
emissions depend on the level of the wind penetration within the
electricity system, but it also indicates that emissions intensity
within the electricity system could be different depending on the
NAO phases.
Moreover, the relationship between CO2 emission and the country
financial development has been investigated several times in the
past by researchers. Most of the studies argued that there had been
positive relationship between CO2 emission and financial
development. Soheilakhoshnevis and Bahram (2014) conduct their
study in the long-run co-integration and short-run dynamics
relation among CO2 emission, energy consumption, economic
growth, urbanization, financial development and the country trade
openness in Iran. The application of Auto Regression Distributed
Lag (ARDL) is to test the approach of co-integration in the study
and VECM Granger causality to examine the direct causal
relationship. The findings reveal the existence of an
environmental Kuznets curve in Iran for both in the short run and
the long run. It also indicates that level of CO2 emission increases
after some threshold level of income at the early stage of
development. There is a possibility of the relationship changes
from positive to negative as more efficient infrastructure and
energy-efficient technology are implemented during the country
development. In contrast, trade openness, financial development
and urbanization are significantly responsible for the CO2
emissions in Iran. Causality tests indicate that there was a
unidirectional Granger causality between real income per capita,
energy consumption per capita, financial development and
urbanization on CO2 emission per capita. Soheilakhoshnevis and
Bahram later suggest that embracing more energy conversion
policies need to be implemented for controlling CO2 emissions.
In addition, Tajudeen (2015) states that the efficiency of
appliances and capital stock greatly determine the amount of
energy demanded and the CO2 emitted. Energy demand is not
only demanded for its own sake, however, it is indirectly offered
through energy consumption appliances and capital stock services.
This particular study is designed to examine the role of energy and
non-economic factors such as consumers’ preferences, lifestyle
and value on energy demanded toward the CO2 emission. He
finds that energy efficiency and non-economic factors are related
to one another. In the context of long run output and price
elasticity, significant differential had been stressed out from
previous studies that had those factors ignored. In the sense of
developing technology, this modern era will produce more energy
demanded. Yet, current policies are not enough to mitigate the
aggregate CO2 emission. Policy makers need to be aware of and
should extend the new policies to restrain CO2 emission along
with the previous policies that had already influenced the
consumers’ lifestyle and behavior. Developing energy efficient
technologies and application of low tariffs on imported energy
would have mitigated CO2 consumption and emissions.
Gavenas, Rosendahl and Skjerpen (2015) claim that emissions
from oil and gas extraction are vital for fossil fuels. As a matter of
fact, it accounts for significant shares of domestic emissions in
many fossil fuels exporting countries all over the world. A study
in Norway is conducted to empirically investigate the driving
forces behind the intensity of CO2 emission in the Norwegian oil
and gas extraction. The study is using field-scientific data that
covers all airline oil and gas activities. It is found that CO2
emission per unit of extraction increases significantly as a field’s
extraction declines. This negative relationship causes the intensity
of CO2 emissions increases significantly with the field’s share of
oil in the total of oil and gas reserves. They also find that oil and
price for CO2 may have affected the emission intensities on that
airline continental shelf. They take some variables into the matter
of this study. The first variable is annual production as a share of
the field’s historic peak production, follows by the share of gas in
the field’s original reserves, the share of gas in the field’s running
production after the elimination of the original reserves, the
original reserve size, reservoir depth, ocean depth, water produced
as a share of peak oil and gas production, the price of CO2, the
price of oil, electrified fields, first year of the extraction and the
time trend. CO2 emission per unit of oil and gas production in that
country varies substantially across field and over time. The size of
reserves, reservoir, ocean depths and the field’s starting year show
no significant effects to the emission intensities. However, water
production and the electrified field are highly significant when
included into the model in this study.
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Variable Hypothesis
S
t
a
t
i
s
t
i
c
a
l
Test
Cr
it
i
c
a
l
Value Result
GDPt
H
:
β
=
0
H
1
:
β
1
≠
0
4.742
2.074
Reject H
0
ENRCt
H
0
:
β
1
=
0
H
:
β
≠
0
3.738
2.074 Reject H
0
TRADEt
H
0
:
β
1
=
0
H
1
:
β
1
≠
0
1.580
2.074
Accept H
0
ELECt
H
0
:
β
1
=
0
H
1
:
β
1
≠
0
4.063
2.074
Reject H
0
PRICEt
H
:
β
=
0
H
1
:
β
1
≠
0
-2.404
2.074 Reject H
0
t
t
Larger companies require thousands of employees to travel from
one place to another, thus there will be heavily increase in the
usage of cars. Consequently, the situation causes a wide range of
Where,
CO
2
= Carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia
problems such as CO2 emission to the atmosphere, noise pollution
and parking issues (Bruck et. al., 2016). Besides government,
every individual and every party need to be well aware of the
consequences of human activities toward the environmental
issues. In 2010, the Beijing Government launched a policy on
vehicle ownership restriction due to faster motorization and
excessive vehicle CO2 emission (Li & Jones, 2015). A study to
analyze the policy implemented is conducted in order to project its
effect on private passenger vehicle population in three situations,
specifically no constraint (NC), current constraint (CC) and tighter
constraint (TC). The study takes into consideration the amount of
emission from vehicle types, the passenger vehicle population,
average emission factors for vehicle types, annual average vehicle
kilometers travelled and the total amount of emissions from all
private passenger vehicles. Towards the end of the study
discussion, the study summarizes that ownership restraints and
driving restrictions are effective in controlling the growth of
private passengers, which lead to CO2 emission to plummet.
Considering the incoming improvement of fuels in the future, it
may decrease the emission factors of CO2 emissions.
The manufacturing industry is one of the main CO2 emission
contributors to the global fossil fuels consumption (Yan & Fang,
2015). The Chinese manufacturing industry had shown a
spectacular growth of the China gross economic output value
since the 1990s. The growth corresponds to the increase of total
fossil fuels consumption, which also lead to the growth of the
CO2 emission, substantially. The study investigates the
influencing factors of CO2 emission changes within the Chinese
manufacturing industry. The study also utilizes the Logarithmic
Mean Divisa Index (LMDI) method. At the same time, the study
explores the potential mitigation based on scenario analysis. Even
though it shows that CO2 emission is growing, the unsteady
growth is projecting a downward trend of CO2 emission intensity.
Coal-dominant emissions structure and electricity-dominant
GDP
t
= Gross Domestic Product for the year
t
ENRC
t
= Total of electricity production for the year
t
TRADE
t
= Net trade for the year
t
ELEC
t
= Energy consumption for the year
t
PRICE
t
= Oil Price for the year
t
ɛ
t
= Error term
t = Annual data from 1980 to 2017
β
i
(i=0,1,2,3,4,5) = Coefficient/magnitude
Notation:
***:Important at 99% confidence level
**:Important at 95% confidence level
*:Important at 85% confidence level
Equation (2) shows results of the estimated model.
In general, the results suggest that the gross domestic product,
electricity production and energy consumption are the most
influence variables that affect the carbon dioxide emission in the
long term in Malaysia. The estimated model has also passed all
the diagnostic testing procedure including multicollinearity test,
autocorrelation test and heteroscedasticity test.
Accordingly, gross domestic product, electricity production and
energy consumption affecting carbon dioxide emission at 99
percentage level of significance. The results further suggest that
oil price and net trade are significant at 95 percentages and 85
percentages, respectively.
Moreover, there are two statistical tests performed, namely the
student’s t–test (t-test), and the Wald test (F-test). T-test is
conducted is to verify whether each of independent variables
individually is significant in explaining the dependent variable
(CO
2
), while the F-test is testing the goodness of fit for estimated
model.
The critical value from statistical table is 2.074 for two tail test
emissions structure are subjected to CO2 emission intensity, as (
α
/
2
= 2.074)
. Table 1 demonstrates the results for t-test
well. The three main sectors that contribute the most in CO2
emission are the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals,
manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products and
the manufacture of non-metallic product. These sectors contribute
approximately around 60% of the total CO2 emissions from the
fuel consumption. The economic scale is the major factor in CO2
emissions while energy intensity is the most important
diminishing factor in CO2 emissions. Contrastingly, the effects of
the emission coefficient, energy structure and economic structure
are extremely small. The future of CO2 emissions depends on the
decline in energy intensities in emission coefficient of electricity,
together with the improvement in economic structure.
3. Model Specification and Findings
Following the modeling proposed by Curtis, Lynch & Zubiate
(2016) and Norimah, et. al. (2017), the augmented structure of
model specification for this study is as follows;
General Model
procedure;
Table 1: Results for t-test procedure
0 1
1 1
0 1
CO
2
t
=
β
0
+
β
1
GDP
t
+
β
2
ENRC
t
+
β
3
TRADE
+
β
4
ELEC
t
+
β
5
PRICE
t
+
ε
t
Estimation Model
CO2 =
−
8.023
+
0.415
GDP
+
0.915
ENRC
+
0.193
TRADE
+
0.318
ELEC
−
0.105PRICE
(1)
The statistical test value of t-test (
t
*
) for GDP
t
= 4.742, which is
greater than its critical value (
t
α / 2
= 2.074
) with α equals to 5%,
thus,
H
0
is rejected. Hence, gross domestic product is important in
explaining CO
2
emission in Malaysia in long run. In other words,
if gross domestic product rises, concurrently, it will lead CO
2
to
rise. The same outcomes apply for the other three variables,
t
t
Se (1.102) (0.087)
t
(0.245) (0.122)
t
(0.078)
t
(0.044)
namely, ENRC
t
, ELEC
t
and PRICE
t
. In contrast, the statistical test
t
-
tes
2
(-7.279)(4.742)*** (3.738)*** (1.580)* (4.063)*** (-2.404)**
value for TRADE
t
= 1.580 is smaller than its critical value, thus,
R
=
0.982
F
−
test
=
286.050
DW
−
test
=
1.490
(2)
we accept Ho. Accordingly, TRADE
t
is not an important factor in
explaining CO
2
emission in Malaysia.
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Model
Hypotheses Statistical
Test
Cr
it
i
c
a
l
Value
Result
Estimatio
n Model
H
0
:
α
1
=
α
2
=
0
H
1
:
α1
≠
0
ESS
F
*
=
df
RSS
df
=
286.050
3.78
2452
.
0
24
>
3
.
7
8
Reject H
0
Table 2: Results for F-test
procedure
Table 2 shows results for F-test (Wald test). According to the
result, the estimated modeling is adequate. The statistical results
support to reject the hypothesis null. Thus the combinations of
independent variables are significant in explaining the dependent
variable at 99%.
4. Conclusion
Overall, carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emission is an important issue to be
discussed. A lot of studies have been done in finding the best
solution to control this issue. Of course, climate change only
exists in Malaysia, but in other nations, too. It is recognized as a
global problem and therefore, it requires a global solution to
mitigate the driving greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the
results, among other solution, one of the best ways to control the
CO2 emission in atmosphere is through controlling the usage of
oil at macro level. My point being, the oil price gives the negative
impact on CO
2
emission in the long run. In other words, if oil
price increases, thus the usage capacity of oil at macro level will
decline (people, in aggregate, will not consume much oil since the
oil becomes more expensive) and finally, it will lead to a
reduction in CO
2
emission. Using adaptation strategy, National
Policy in climate change in Malaysia has been formulated to
provide a framework that could be used as a guidance for all
government agencies, industry, community as well as other
stakeholders in order to face challenges in climate change
scenario. The policy has been enforced to ensure climate-resilient
development in fulfilling national aspiration for our nation’s
sustainability and well-beings.
Knowledgments
This research is the result of some of the analysis of University
Grants (GPU) (Code: 2017-0167-106-01) awarded from Universiti
Pendidikan Sultan Idrsi (UPSI
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