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Aging Human Populations: Good for Us, Good for the Earth
Abstract
As the nations of the world grapple with the task of creating sustainable societies, ending and in some cases reversing population growth will be necessary to succeed. Yet stable or declining populations are typically reported in the media as a problem, or even a crisis, due to demographic aging. This is misguided, as economic analyses show that the costs connected with aging societies are manageable, while the economic, social, and environmental benefits of smaller populations are substantial. Earth's human-carrying capacity has been exceeded; hence, population growth must end and aging societies are unavoidable. They should be embraced as part of a just and prosperous future for people and the other species with whom we share our planet.
... In one strand, ageing is mostly discussed through the lens of labour markets economics, saving patterns, pension fund policies, and the provision of health and welfare services 7 . However, sustainability is not present in this literature in the conventional sense, considering the deeper discussion on the possible environmental consequences of ageing and shrinking populations 8 . Furthermore, many studies on the economic and social ramifications of ageing have focused either at the scale of the individual/single household (mainly studies from medicine and social science) or on the national scale (mainly studies from economics) 7 , missing to address the urban and regional scale. ...
... The above suggest that ageing and shrinking populations are usually perceived as challenging obstacles for meeting sustainability objectives, and rarely as opportunities. It is highly possible, however, that rapidly ageing and shrinking populations will have at the same time multiple positive and negative ramifications for sustainability in terms of economic growth, public sector development, consumption patterns, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions, among others 7,8 . Thus they will most certainly also have important implications for the implementation of many of the SDGs. ...
... Many studies have argued that ageing and shrinking populations will be beneficial for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning (see an extended review in ref. 8 ). This is mainly through reduced environmental pressures from decreases in total consumption, considering that the growth of human population and consumption are both major drivers of global environmental change [28][29][30][31] . ...
Population ageing and shrinking are demographic phenomena with far-reaching implications for sustainability in the current context of extensive and rapid urbanization. This Perspective rationalizes their interface by (a) identifying the challenges and opportunities that ageing and shrinking urban populations will have for implementing the sustainable development goals (SDGs), and (b) discussing some emerging interventions to capitalise on the opportunities and reduce the challenges to achieving sustainability. We argue that a diverse set of context-specific technological, socioeconomic, institutional and governance interventions would be needed to leverage effectively the opportunities and minimize the risks posed by ageing and shrinking urban populations for long-term sustainability.
... Introducción El cambio en la demografía mundial ha resultado en un aumento en la esperanza de vida y, por lo tanto, en un crecimiento importante de la población adulta. Este aumento da lugar a nuevos desafíos sociales y políticos que se adaptan a una población emergente de personas mayores sobre la necesidad de los menores de 15 años 1 . A medida que envejecemos, se producen una serie de cambios asociados con el mismo proceso, tanto morfológica como funcionalmente 2 . ...
Objetivo
Determinar la relación entre la calidad del sueño y el equilibrio postural en las personas mayores que viven en la comunidad.
Métodos
Se aplicó un estudio analítico y transversal. Se reclutaron 53 sujetos que cumplían los criterios de selección. Se aplicó el índice de calidad del sueño de Pittsburgh (PSQI) y se realizó una prueba de equilibrio estático a través de una posturografía computarizada para evaluar el equilibrio postural.
Resultados
Cincuenta y tres sujetos entre 60 y 80 años (M = 70,13; desviación estándar: 6,06) fueron evaluados; 69,8% correspondían a mujeres y 30,2% a hombres. La prueba de correlación encontró una relación estadísticamente significativa y positiva, pero moderada (p = 0,002; r = 0,417) entre el desplazamiento total y la calidad del sueño en la prueba de Romberg ojos abiertos. Lo mismo ocurrió con el desplazamiento total en la prueba Romberg ojos cerrados (p = 0,002, r = 0,445). Los desplazamientos siempre fueron mayores en el plano anteroposterior, donde también se encontró una correlación estadísticamente significativa y positiva con la calidad del sueño en todas las pruebas posturológicas. La correlación fue moderada en todos los casos.
Conclusión
Existe una relación entre la calidad del sueño medida. Sin embargo, esta relación tiene un nivel bajo a moderado. Además, el tamaño del efecto es un factor que debe considerarse antes de aceptar la hipótesis. Los estudios futuros deben abordar la dependencia de cada una de las variables.
... Quality of life at old age is largely dependent on the prevention of diseases, e.g., if older people have had the opportunity to live a healthy life at a younger age. As long as health protection and the prevention of diseases prove to be successful in the long run, the growing number of elderly will not overburden the public health system [78]. Tokarski [79] pointed out that, in later life, the elderly do not participate in sports because they get less and less interested physical exercise and are happy without sports. ...
As aging causes challenges in several countries globally, more and more people are suffering from bad health conditions. Nowadays, COVID-19 causes many problems—and one of the root causes of these problems is the isolation of people from each other. The aim of our article is to investigate the effects of COVID-19 on people’s physical activity. Physical activity is strongly correlated with health status and health preservation is very important to minimize the negative effects of the pandemic. In order to investigate this topic, we prepared an extended literature review, citing the most important sources of COVID-related health-preservation issues. Our results showed that the negative economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic have caused a decrease in physical activities in several cases. A reduction in possible physical activities has a potential negative effect on the life expectancies of elderly people. In order to underline the importance of physical activities, we prepared an extended literature review, aiming to summarize the available knowledge related to COVID-19. As a conclusion we recommend to strengthen, maintain, and develop available sporting possibilities for people. The most important of these recommendations is the development of physical activities that are available for free.
... Whatever would be the plan adopted, it should be applied to all countries. If it is impractical to require a small country to reduce its population, some exceptions 10 For a recent review of the problems and benefits of population decline see Gotmark et al.(2018). ...
Felling trees, furthering malaria: links between deforestation and disease in developing nations KELLY F. AUSTIN
The impact of reproductive health services on armed conflict in Afghanistan STEWART BRITTEN AND WAHIDA PAIKAN
Environment, poverty and the steady state economy THEODORE P. LIANOS
Sustainability of equality: a paradox for democracy STEVEN A BURR, KATIE S MCMANUS & YEE L LEUNG
Book review: Empty planet: the shock of global population decline, by Darell Bricker and John Ibbitson DAVID SAMWAYS
... A problem inherent to lower fertility rates and a decreasing population is that countries will move through a period where the effects of an ageing population could lead to serious challenges for healthcare programs and public pensions (Ezeh et al. 2012). Yet, since reaching a lower population is an undeniable necessity, it is preferable to face these challenges directly rather than trying to delay it through pro-natalist policies (Götmark et al. 2018). Several solutions are possible to address these challenges (Smeeding 2014) but will necessarily require many social adjustments such as extending retirement age or raising taxes. ...
Nowadays, human activities are causing an important collapse in global biodiversity while also affecting the global climate considerably. Despite historical agreements on both biodiversity conservation and climate change, humanity keeps changing the face of the planet at an increasing rate. An undisputed factor in global change is the excessive and growing human consumption. On the other hand, it seems that linking humanity’s environmental impact with population growth has been quite controversial in the international debate, as if, somehow, biodiversity loss and climate change were unconnected to it. To this purpose, this paper reviews (1) the impacts of continuing human population growth on global biodiversity and climate through the examples of food and energy production, (2) changing perceptions about population growth and (3) the potential solutions that could be used to address this issue. Despite not the only factor, the research reviewed in this paper highlights that continuing population growth plays a substantial global role in the destruction of biodiversity and in climate change, and this role urgently needs more attention in scientific, policy and public circles. Both unsustainable population levels and excessive consumption are part of the equation and must be addressed concurrently in developing and developed countries. Several non-coercive strategies are possible to address the population question, mostly through access to education and contraception, in order to empower women through the basic human right to have children by choice. In any case, although limiting population growth may not be the only solution required to fix current environmental problems, ignoring it is likely to hinder any ecologically sustainable future.
... Even though there are global achievements in reducing fertility rates, notably in developed nations (Pison 2017;Frejka 2017;UNDESA 2017b), population growth remains a legitimate concern, primarily in developing nations. However, countries that have attained below replacement fertility (BRF) of 2.1 births per woman have not fully recognized the inherent social and environmental benefits (Götmark et al. 2018) and are faced with decelerating economic growth and an ageing population of dependent individuals. Consequently, 62% have enacted pro-natal policies (Wong and Yeoh 2003;UNDESA 2017b), and others have turned to immigration to fuel population growth (Cafaro 2018). ...
Humanity is undergoing an unprecedented demographic transformation in that global population is rising from 2 billion in the 1920s
to an expected 8 billion in the 2020s, an annual increase of roughly 80 million. The requirements of this expanding human population
are strongly linked to depletion of wildlife and increasing difficulties facing both wildlife and environmental conservation efforts. I
assess current and potential risks stemming from the environmental changes due to unchecked human population growth
... Ecological citizens in Europe should be glad that it has become the first continent to break the back of the population explosion (United Nations, 2017). They should firmly reject efforts to stir fears about their 'ageing populations', which are an achievement, not a problem (Götmark et al., 2018), and work to put the right policies in place to realize the ecological benefits that shrinking populations can provide. Any nation that embraces its population peak and decline, and celebrates the environmental benefits, strengthens the will of others to follow suit. ...
Respect for nature demands sharing landscapes and resources fairly with other species, which cannot be achieved without limiting human populations. So ecological citizens should support measures to decrease fertility rates and limit immigration, both of which are necessary to reduce currently excessive populations. Global population growth will only end when enough individual nations embrace their own populations’ peak and decline; hence setting immigration levels that allow for national population contraction is needed. While migration at low levels may be sustainable, high immigration undermines both national and global population stabilization and does not solve the problems which drive emigration. Combined with reduced per capita consumption, smaller populations will help developed nations to quit hogging a disproportionate share of the global ecological commons, decrease greenhouse gas emissions and open up new opportunities for ecological restoration and rewilding.
... One straightforward policy implication, based on the EU's strong environmental commitments, might be that European nations with high immigration levels, like Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, should reduce them. Countries with stable or declining populations, like Italy, Poland, Hungary and the Netherlands, could embrace rather than fight these demographic trends (Götmark et al., 2018). Alternately, EU nations could reduce their current environmental commitments, increase immigration and embrace even denser human populations. ...
... They are also more at risk in WUI fires. This is expected to be an increasing challenge when elderly in increasing numbers are aging in place [61,62]. ...
In recent years, severe and deadly wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires have resulted in an increased focus on this particular risk to humans and property, especially in Canada, USA, Australia, and countries in the Mediterranean area. Also, in areas not previously accustomed to wildfires, such as boreal areas in Sweden, Norway, and in the Arctic, WUI fires have recently resulted in increasing concern. January 2014, the most severe wooden town fire in Norway since 1923 raged through Lærdalsøyri. Ten days later, a wildfire raged through the scattered populated community of Flatanger and destroyed even more structures. These fires came as a surprise to the fire brigades and the public. We describe and analyze a proposed way forward for exploring if and how this increasing fire incidence can be linked to concomitant changes in climate, land-use, and habitat management; and then aim at developing new dynamic adaptive fire risk assessment and management tools. We use coastal Norway as an example and focus on temporal changes in fire risk in wooden structure settlements and in the Norwegian Calluna vulgaris L. dominated WUI. In this interface, the fire risk is now increasing due to a combination of land-use changes, resulting in large areas of early successional vegetation with an accumulation of biomass, and the interactive effects of climatic changes resulting in increased drought risk. We propose a novel bow-tie framework to explore fire risk and preventive measures at various timescales (years, months, weeks, hours) as a conceptual model for exploring risk contributing factors and possibilities for risk management. Ignition is the top event of the bow-tie which has the potential development towards a fire disaster as a worst case outcome. The bow-tie framework includes factors such as changes in the built environment and natural habitat fuel moisture content due to the weather conditions, WUI fuel accumulation, possibly improved ecosystem management, contribution by civic prescribed burner groups, relevant fire risk modeling, and risk communication to the fire brigades and the public. We propose an interdisciplinary research agenda for developing this framework and improving the current risk understanding, risk communication, and risk management. This research agenda will represent important contributions in paving the road for fire disaster prevention in Norway, and may provide a model for other systems and regions.
... In contrast, a third dimension of demographic change, age structure, has received rather more attention than it deserves. Population ageing is not the disastrous spectre that conventional economists would have us believe, and there is little to fear, and much to celebratefrom rewilding to tightening labour marketsin a declining population with a large share of older citizens (Götmark et al., 2018). ...
Ecological economists accept that the global population cannot grow forever. But papers discussing the relevance of population growth and the prospects for minimising it are rare in the literature on ecological economics. Even these papers treat population almost exclusively as an issue relating to the scale of human activity. The many ways in which population growth rate and local demographic pressures drive negative social and environmental trends remain largely unarticulated. The mistaken belief that action to reduce population growth requires involuntary control of people's reproduction has fostered a taboo on the topic and deterred analysis of demographic influences on issues such as inequality, unemployment, debt, social cohesion and conflict. This paper discusses how some of these influences relate to ecological economics discourses on natural resources, labour, capital and governance. It argues that population stabilisation is not only ultimately required for a steady state economy, but can be a powerful lever in a virtuous cycle of effects diminishing resource consumption and environmental impacts, reversing income inequality and undermining the leverage enjoyed by capital over labour. A richer, more integrated treatment of population dynamics would greatly enhance the ecological economics research agenda in the coming decades.
... For a recent review of the problems and benefits of population decline seeGotmark et al., 2018. real-world economics review, issue no. ...
There is no doubt that the climate change and the unequal distribution of income (and wealth) are the two major problems of our time with tragic consequences if we fail to deal with them in time and in the right way. However, the general public is either not interested or not informed or feels powerless and therefore indifferent and inactive. In recent worldwide demonstrations it is estimated that four million people participated which is only one in two thousand and, among the young generation, two in a thousand.
Scientists, and among them economists and ecologists, predict that in the next decades, if we remain inactive, dramatic changes with tragic consequences, such as natural catastrophes, famines, wars, local conflicts, social unrest and even extinction of the human race within the next one hundred years (Fenner, reported by Firth, 2010) will take place. The ideas suggested by economists and ecologists to cope with the two problems mentioned above have usually been grouped in four action plans, namely New Economics, Green Growth, Degrowth and Steady State Economy. Sometimes they are referred to as theories or hypotheses but these are misnomers because they refer to the future and they cannot be tested empirically.
The purpose of this paper is to comment on the above policy plans, to defend the steady state economy (SSE) proposal and suggest a variation of it that will make the implied policy plan more viable. It is intended as a constructive contribution to Herman Daly’s perspective by introducing in the steady state economy the condition of population stability at the optimal size.
... One straightforward policy implication, based on the EU's strong environmental commitments, might be that European nations with high immigration levels, like Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, should reduce them. Countries with stable or declining populations, like Italy, Poland, Hungary and the Netherlands, could embrace rather than fight these demographic trends (Götmark et al., 2018). Alternately, EU nations could reduce their current environmental commitments, increase immigration and embrace even denser human populations. ...
This article clarifies the potential environmental impacts of more or less expansive EU immigration policies. First, we project the demographic impacts of different immigration policy scenarios on future population numbers, finding that relatively small annual differences in immigration levels lead to large differences in future population numbers, both nationally and region-wide. Second, we analyze the potential impacts of future population numbers on two key environmental goals: reducing the EU's greenhouse gas emissions and preserving its biodiversity. We find that in both cases, smaller populations make success in these endeavors more likely-though only in conjunction with comprehensive policy changes which lock in the environmental benefits of smaller populations. Reducing immigration in order to stabilize or reduce populations thus can help EU nations create ecologically sustainable societies, while increasing immigration will tend to move them further away from this goal.
... On the other hand, the settings that lead to a growth in population deem it tougher to meet these goals. They require considerably reduced per capita emissions and have the probability of leading to much higher levels of overall GHG emissions in the upcoming years [12][13][14][15]. ...
... The environmental implications of a growing population have been in the spotlight for many years -from Ehrlich (1968 -see Box 2.2.) through to more recent contributions (see, for example, O'Neill et al., 2010;Götmark et al., 2018). This is due to the well-established relationships between more people on the planet, growing affluence and consumption, and increased environmental degradation. ...
Environmental policies must be better integrated across all government work if Europe is to stay on target toward a sustainable, carbon-neutral future. This will be crucial amid the profound changes which are expected to happen as a result of an ageing European population, a widespread technological change, and the competing allocations of public budgets. The Report highlights that tackling these complex challenges with sustainability in mind will require clear, bold, long-term and future-proof policies.
... It is urgent for global researchers to understand the pathological evolution of senile dementia to identify risk factors and develop preventive measures. The active management of senile dementia is necessary to ensure a sustainable future for human societies, since aging societies are an inevitable demographic trend [4]. ...
Background
The study was aim to prove that both rationality and emotion are indispensable for older people to maintain their ability to live independently during the twilight of their lives.
Methods
The resilience of older people to dementia were investigated by considering the interactions between educational levels and marriage status. Four sociodemographic variables (age, sex, educational level, and marital status) were collected from 1177 older Chinese participants, whose mini-mental state examination scores (MMSE scores) were measured.
Results
A lower educational level coupled with being widowed caused a greater risk for severe cognitive impairment (relative risk [RR] 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20–1.82; p < 0.001) for high-aged older participants (age range: ≥80) than for their low-aged counterparts (age range: ≥60 and < 80). In contrast, a higher educational level coupled with being married leveled this age-related risk for cognitive loss (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.65–1.27; p = 0.62).
Conclusions
Further findings suggest that the synergistic influence of education and marriage was observed only among high-aged older people .Being both well-educated and married is associated with a delayed cognitive function for older people. However, longevity is a prerequisite for realizing this benefit.
... To counteract the losses in terms of human capital, companies' solutions could be to invest in technologies that make labor more productive. According to Gotmarks and his colleagues, with the decrease in fertility rates, families are now smaller, allowing a decrease in economic inequalities as a better investment is made for each child's education [32]. Moreover, older individuals are usually active community members. ...
Living in a world where we can expand our economic wealth and the richness of human life is the core of the human development concept. Greater well-being for all can be achieved by improving people’s capabilities and more importantly, by giving individuals the ability to use their knowledge and skills. The economic complexity index (i.e., ECI) is a new indicator that defines a country’s complexity. Through a vast network, citizens can transfer an enormous quantity of relevant knowledge, leading to the creation of diversified and complex products. However, the relationship between economic complexity and human development is not that simple. Thus, this paper aimed to understand it deeper—international migration and logistics performance are used as moderators. Hierarchical linear modeling was the statistical tool used to analyze two groups of countries from 1990 to 2017. For robustness and to deal with possible endogeneity issues, different year lags were also included. The results show that international migration and logistics performance are decisive moderators as they change the relationship between economic complexity and human development.
... The active management of senile dementia is necessary to ensure a sustainable future for human societies, since ageing societies are an inevitable demographic trend (Götmark et al., 2018). ...
Aim
The study aimed to prove that both rationality and emotion are indispensable for older people to maintain their ability to live independently during the twilight of their lives. The resilience of older people to dementia were investigated by considering the interactions between educational levels and marriage status.
Design
A quantitative study was conducted using questionnaires.
Methods
Four sociodemographic variables (age, sex, educational level and marital status) were collected from 1,177 older Chinese participants, whose mini‐mental state examination scores (MMSE scores) were measured.
Results
A lower educational level coupled with being widowed caused a greater risk for severe cognitive impairment (relative risk [RR] 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20–1.82; p < .001) for high‐aged older participants (age range: ≥80) than for their low‐aged counterparts (age range: ≥60 and <80). In contrast, a higher educational level coupled with being married levelled this age‐related risk for cognitive loss (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.65–1.27; p = .62).
... According to prevalent indicators, Japan still is one of the richest and most innovative countries of the world despite its population has been decreasing for years (Dutta et al., 2020). Moreover, recent researches indicate that aging can also bring some advantages, such as less congestion, lower housing costs, decreased per capita consumption of food (especially meat), energy and materials (Götmark et al., 2018;Smil, 2021), while the consequences of overshooting planetary boundaries risk to be catastrophic (IPCC, 2019;Dodson et al., 2020;Steffen et al., 2015). ...
Clear indicators and evaluation criteria are essential to keep humanity’s environmental impact within planetary boundaries. We introduce a new criterion based on two constraints, accounting for both ecological and human sustainability. The ecological constraint is defined through a novel indicator, the eco-balance, grounded on the well known concept of ecological footprint and the new concept of population biodensity. The human sustainability constraint is based on the estimated level of biocapacity consumption needed to achieve an acceptable level of human development. The application of our criterion to world countries shows where technological improvements and changes in consumption patterns are sufficient to reach sustainability, and where actions on population and/or restoring ecological capital are also needed. This highlights synergic patterns going beyond simplistic schemes, such as overconsumption vs. overpopulation or developed vs. developing countries.
... Whatever would be the plan adopted, it should be applied to all countries. If it is impractical to require a small country to reduce its population, some exceptions 10 For a recent review of the problems and benefits of population decline see Gotmark et al.(2018). ...
Environmental degradation and inequality of income and wealth are two major global problems at the present time. This paper suggests that a steady state economy offers solutions for both problems. It argues that if the world population is drastically reduced and remains constant at a low level ecological balance can be achieved and, at the same time, income distribution will be greatly improved. The basis of this argument is that a smaller population will reduce the use of natural resources for production and consumption and at the same time reduce the supply of labor and thus increase wages. Also, a brief review of the idea of the steady state economy from the ancient philosophers to modern writers is provided.
... This ignores population growth's enormous contribution to countries' carbon and ecological footprints. 97 Such misconceptions contribute to chronic underfunding of reproductive health and family planning services, and growing numbers of women with unmet needs. 98 Fulfilling these unmet needs could avoid 21 million unintended births globally per year, while saving $3 on maternal and newborn health care for each dollar spent on contraceptive services. ...
For leaders, planners and people around the world facing uncertainty about actions to resolve our planetary crises, we offer a concrete framework for action. We take the six core areas identified for urgent action by humanity from our 2019 paper in BioScience, World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency, and convert these into a framework for concrete solutions at six scales (household; community; city; state/province/district; nation; global) and on three timelines (2022-2026; by 2030; by 2050). Humanity is nearly out of road, and our challenges are now less technical or scientific than social, behavioral, political and economic. Leaders' challenges will also be to steer the ship of humanity into a steady future on a vanishingly short timeline. All we know and love is at stake.
... This ignores population growth's enormous contribution to countries' carbon and ecological footprints. 97 Such misconceptions contribute to chronic underfunding of reproductive health and family planning services, and growing numbers of women with unmet needs. 98 Fulfilling these unmet needs could avoid 21 million unintended births globally per year, while saving $3 on maternal and newborn health care for each dollar spent on contraceptive services. ...
‘We have kicked the can down the road once again – but we are running out of road.’ – Rachel Kyte, Dean of Fletcher School at Tufts University.
We, in our capacities as scientists, economists, governance and policy specialists, are shifting from warnings to guidance for action before there is no more ‘road.’ The science is clear and irrefutable; humanity is in advanced ecological overshoot. Our overexploitation of resources exceeds ecosystems’ capacity to provide them or to absorb our waste. Society has failed to meet clearly stated goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Civilization faces an epochal crossroads, but with potentially much better, wiser outcomes if we act now.
What are the concrete and transformative actions by which we can turn away from the abyss? In this paper we forcefully recommend priority actions and resource allocation to avert the worst of the climate and nature emergencies, two of the most pressing symptoms of overshoot, and lead society into a future of greater wellbeing and wisdom. Humanity has begun the social, economic, political and technological initiatives needed for this transformation. Now, massive upscaling and acceleration of these actions and collaborations are essential before irreversible tipping points are crossed in the coming decade. We still can overcome significant societal, political and economic barriers of our own making.
Previously, we identified six core areas for urgent global action – energy, pollutants, nature, food systems, population stabilization and economic goals. Here we identify an indicative, systemic and time-limited framework for priority actions for policy, planning and management at multiple scales from household to global. We broadly follow the ‘Reduce-Remove-Repair’ approach to rapid action. To guide decision makers, planners, managers, and budgeters, we cite some of the many experiments, mechanisms and resources in order to facilitate rapid global adoption of effective solutions.
Our biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioral. To have hope of success, we must accelerate collaborative actions across scales, in different cultures and governance systems, while maintaining adequate social, economic and political stability. Effective and timely actions are still achievable on many, though not all fronts. Such change will mean the difference for billions of children and adults, hundreds of thousands of species, health of many ecosystems, and will determine our common future.
... It will be interesting to see whether the 6th Assessment Report in 2022 takes this literature seriously: for example, by commissioning full chapters on population policy from the working groups devoted to mitigation and adaptation. A pro-growth economic ideology remains politically dominant, yet signs of ecological decline are leading more people to question it (Götmark et al., 2018). A recent "Warning of a Climate Emergency," signed by over 11,000 scientists, forthrightly describes continued increases in human population and the world gross domestic product as "profoundly troubling signs" of ecological decline, and states: "The world population must be stabilized-and, ideally, gradually reducedwithin a framework that ensures social integrity" (Ripple et al., 2019). ...
It is well‐established that human population growth is a leading cause of increased greenhouse gas emissions and accelerating global climate change. After decades of neglect, philosophical ethicists have, over the past decade, taken up the issue of climate change and population policy and there are now numerous articles and books which explore the subject. Both rights‐based and consequentialist approaches seek to balance reproductive rights against other human rights and interests threatened by overpopulation and ecological degradation. While biocentric ethicists have additional reasons to advocate for smaller human populations, even anthropocentrists affirm the need to balance reproductive rights against reproductive responsibilities in order to promote the well‐being of future generations. There is a particularly strong consensus on the value of choice‐enhancing population policies that reduce fertility voluntarily, such as securing universal access to modern contraception and promoting equal rights and opportunities for women. There is strong support for government policies that incentivize smaller families, some support for policies that disincentivize larger ones, and little to no support for punitive policies. Many ethicists warn that failure to enact reasonable population policies now may necessitate harsher policies in the future, a common theme in climate ethics generally.
This article is categorized under: Climate, Nature, and Ethics > Ethics and Climate Change
... This ignores population growth's enormous contribution to countries' carbon and ecological footprints. 97 Such misconceptions contribute to chronic underfunding of reproductive health and family planning services, and growing numbers of women with unmet needs. 98 Fulfilling these unmet needs could avoid 21 million unintended births globally per year, while saving $3 on maternal and newborn health care for each dollar spent on contraceptive services. ...
(Replaces preprint)
We have kicked the can down the road once again-but we are running out of road.'-Rachel Kyte, Dean of Fletcher School at Tufts University. We, in our capacities as scientists, economists, governance and policy specialists, are shifting from warnings to guidance for action before there is no more 'road.' The science is clear and irrefutable; humanity is in advanced ecological overshoot. Our overexploitation of resources exceeds ecosys-tems' capacity to provide them or to absorb our waste. Society has failed to meet clearly stated goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Civilization faces an epochal crossroads , but with potentially much better, wiser outcomes if we act now. What are the concrete and transformative actions by which we can turn away from the abyss? In this paper we forcefully recommend priority actions and resource allocation to avert the worst of the climate and nature emergencies, two of the most pressing symptoms of overshoot, and lead society into a future of greater wellbeing and wisdom. Humanity has begun the social, economic, political and technological initiatives needed for this transformation. Now, massive upscaling and acceleration of these actions and collaborations are essential before irreversible tipping points are crossed in the coming decade. We still can overcome significant societal, political and economic barriers of our own making. Previously, we identified six core areas for urgent global action-energy, pollutants, nature, food systems, population stabilization and economic goals. Here we identify an indicative, systemic and time-limited framework for priority actions for policy, planning and management at multiple scales from household to global. We broadly follow the 'Reduce-Remove-Repair' approach to rapid action. To guide decision makers, planners, managers, and budgeters, we cite some of the many experiments, mechanisms and resources in order to facilitate rapid global adoption of effective solutions. Our biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioral. To have hope of success, we must accelerate collaborative actions across scales, in different cultures and governance systems, while maintaining adequate social, economic and political stability. Effective and timely actions are still achievable on many, though not all fronts. Such change will mean the difference for billions of children and adults, hundreds of thousands of species, health of many ecosystems, and will determine our common future.
... Naukowcy przekonują, że kontrola urodzeń może przynieść wiele korzyści dla środowiska naturalnego: redukcję emisji gazów cieplarnianych, ograniczenie wylesiania czy utrzymanie różnorodności biologicznej. Zahamowanie wzrostu liczby ludności w przyszłości może też zwiększyć bezpieczeństwo żywnościowe i zamożność oraz przyczynić się do poprawy jakości życia (Götmark, Cafaro, Sullivan, 2018). Jednak coraz częściej zauważa się także, że z punktu widzenia emisji istotniejsza niż liczba ludności świata jest liczba i wielkość gospodarstw domowych oraz struktura wieku ludności. ...
W artykule dokonano przeglądu literatury dotyczącej zarówno koncepcji teoretycznych, jak i badań empirycznych poświęconych zmianom klimatycznym w powiązaniu z procesami ludnościowymi. Z dostępnej literatury wynika jednoznacznie, że istnieją związki pomiędzy postępującymi zmianami klimatycznymi a przebiegiem procesów ludnościowych. Liczba ludności świata, struktura wieku populacji, liczba i rozmiar gospodarstw domowych oraz postępujący proces urbanizacji przyczyniają się do wzrostu emisji gazów cieplarnianych, a co za tym idzie, do tempa szeroko rozumianych zmian klimatycznych. Te zmiany z kolei wpływają na płodność, stan zdrowia ludności, umieralność oraz migracje. Należy jednak pamiętać, że te powiązania różnią się znacząco zależnie od położenia geograficznego, poziomu rozwoju gospodarczego oraz kontekstu społecznego i kulturowego.
Climate change is unlikely to impact the size and distribution of populations markedly unless system collapse causes mortalities on an unprecedented scale. Population growth, however, will greatly exacerbate the impacts of climate change on communities in high-fertility countries, and particularly those located in the humid tropics where heat stress will increase, and in coastal lowlands exposed to sea-level rise, storm surge, and flooding. For these communities, population growth itself is a greater threat to security and economic development than is climate change. Although most future population growth will occur in poor countries with low emissions per person, the measures needed to provide and promote family planning yield very cost-effective emissions reductions. By lowering population growth, the pressure for land clearing is also reduced, thus helping to preserve and expand forests. However, currently, international support for family planning activities is far below what is needed to meet women's needs and to avoid population levels that preclude successful climate change mitigation. The global population is still growing by around 80 million people per year, roughly the same pace at which it has grown for the past 50 years. From the 1960s to the 1990s, voluntary family planning programs drove rapid fertility decline in many high-fertility countries. Over the past 25 years, myths have been propagated that deter investments in family planning and cultivate the political will to increase, rather than decrease, population growth. The climate change discourse should embrace the need to end population growth through the voluntary limitation of births and support greater investment in rights-based family planning programs.
Ante los cambios drásticos que se manifiestan a nivel de lo natural y lo social, fue
importante continuar en 2020, con la organización del II Simposio Internacional y
III Seminario de Educación Ambiental y Desarrollo Sustentable, a pesar de la
pandemia provocada por el virus SARS-Cov-2, que produce la COVID-19. Uno de
los resultados del evento académico fue la publicación del libro “Sociedad,
permacultura y agricultura sustentable. Hacia una educación y cultura ambiental”.
El texto incluye trabajos que abordan la problemática socioambiental. Destacan
propuestas de educación ambiental a nivel escolar, reconocimiento de saberes
tradicionales, impactos ambientales relacionados con el agua, huella ecológica,
explotación forestal; así como prácticas de conservación y aprovechamiento
sustentable a partir de deshidratadores solares, seguridad alimentaria, manejo de
residuos sólidos peligrosos y conservación de agave. También se abordan temas
vinculados con la agricultura sustentable, principalmente, aspectos que contemplan los ciclos de vida y propagación de especies vegetales, control de plagas de frutas como papaya, maíz y pitahaya.
Los trabajos incluidos cumplieron con los requisitos de calidad, en especial, porque fueron sometidos a una evaluación de doble ciego. El texto puede consultarse de forma gratuita en el siguiente enlace:
To guide scientists and society regarding the hydrologic consequences of anthropogenic climate change, earth scientists increasingly develop qualitative predictions and quantitative ensembles of models, some of which have important economic or (geo)political implications. However, with unprecedented human population, environmental degradation, and water scarcity, climatic factors are increasingly invoked falsely to explain failures of environmental governance, a phenomenon termed climatization. We propose a first typology of climatization in hydrology. Scientific climatization occurs when – during the normal course of a scientific investigation – a hydrologic state is falsely attributed to climatic factors, often due to a conceptual model that excludes human impacts or a simplified methodology that fails to quantify uncertainty. In contrast securitization-aligned climatization occurs when a securitizing state actor requires that scientists attribute observed hydrologic states to climatic factors. Maintaining the credibility of earth science requires that earth scientists vigorously contest both scientific climatization and securitization of global change hydrology.
This working paper presents new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding what will happen, but to accurately show the impact on overall numbers of different migration and socioeconomic policy choices, with the aim of clarifying those choices for European policymakers and citizens. Among key results, we find that demographic policies have the potential to significantly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. However, in countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to some extent. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations-thus achieving one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies. Potential environmental benefits of smaller populations include a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and increased opportunities for biodiversity conservation.
La creciente demanda de las crasuláceas para uso ornamental ha provocado la extracción ilegal y alteración de sus hábitats. En apoyo a su conservación se han establecido centros de propagación, donde el manejo de diversos factores, como la presencia de insectos fitófagos, determina el desarrollo exitoso. Es necesario conocer la identidad de las plantas, de sus herbívoros y la biología de estos para poder manejarlos, considerando que las relaciones tróficas son específicas y que, bajo ciertas condiciones, algunos insectos afectan la producción de sus plantas hospederas. El objetivo de esta investigación fue identificar una larva fitófaga causante de daños en hojas de Sedum rubrotinctum, Crassula ovata, Aeonium decorum, Echeveria cante y Echeveria catorce que forman parte de la Colección Especial de Plantas Suculentas de la Universidad Autónoma Chapingo (CEPS-UACh), al mismo tiempo fueron realizadas observaciones sobre el ciclo de vida y la relación con sus plantas hospederas. El fitófago se identificó como Callophrys xami (Reakirt) (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae), la mariposa sedosa verde mexicana. Los primeros huevecillos recién ovipositados fueron observados en junio, eclosionando una semana después. El daño de los últimos estadios larvales fue evidente en septiembre, pupando a mediados de octubre. Los adultos emergieron en la primera semana de noviembre.
Aging is an inevitable process that involves changes along life in multiple neurochemical, neuroanatomical, hormonal systems, and many others. In addition, these biological modifications lead to an increase in age-related sickness such as cardiovascular diseases, osteoporosis, neurodegenerative disorders, and sleep disturbances, among others that affect activities of daily life. Demographic projections have demonstrated that aging will increase its worldwide rate in the coming years. The research on chronic diseases of the elderly is important to gain insights into this growing global burden. Novel therapeutic approaches aimed for treatment of age-related pathologies have included the endocannabinoid system as an effective tools since this biological system shows beneficial effects in preclinical models. However, and despite these advances, little has been addressed in the arena of the endocannabinoid system as option for treating sleep disorders in aging since experimental evidence suggests that some elements of the endocannabinoid system modulate the sleep-wake cycle. This article addresses this less-studied field, focusing on the likely perspective of the implication of the endocannabinoid system in the regulation of sleep problems reported in aged. We conclude that beneficial effects regarding the putative efficacy of the endocannabinoid system as therapeutic tools in aging is either inconclusive or still missing.
Populations in developed countries are ageing. However, the impact of senior citizens’ consumption on global carbon mitigation is poorly understood. Here we find that senior citizens have played a leading role in driving up GHG emissions in the past decade and are on the way to becoming the largest contributor. Considering the greenhouse gas footprint of household consumption across age groups in 32 developed countries, the senior contribution to national total consumption-based emissions increased from 25.2% to 32.7% between 2005 and 2015. Seniors in the United States and Australia have the highest per capita footprint, twice the Western average. The trend is mainly due to changes in expenditure patterns of seniors. The increasing carbon footprint of senior citizens will probably drive domestic production yet have limited effects on international carbon leakage. The demographic change poses more challenges in local mitigation and calls for deeper public mitigation efforts. A large proportion of the population in developed countries will be of senior age in the years ahead. The carbon emissions of this group comprised an increasing share of the total emissions in developed countries in the past decade, with high expenditure on carbon-intensive products, and this trend will continue in the future.
Surprising as it may seem, even in developed countries, systematic and large differences in survival exist between rich and poor populations. In France, for instance, Nathalie Blanpain tells us that life expectancy at birth for men in the most affluent 5% of the population is 84.4 years , compared to 71.7 years in the poorest 5% (a 13-year difference). For women, the gap is smaller: eight years between the most affluent and the poorest.
Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002-2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world's water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.
Population ageing will accelerate in the coming decades in China. This ageing may have considerable impact on the economy and energy-related emissions, potentially affecting the global economy and global climate. By using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model we explore the impact caused by the population ageing through imposing the expected 2050 age structure on the economy and population size of 2011. Results show that gross domestic product (GDP) of China is reduced by nearly 10% as the ageing reduces consumption, labor supply and investments. However, increasing returns to capital abroad adds support to domestic demand. Ageing process in other countries can double ageing impacts on domestic consumption and encourage only a few production sectors in China. Global energy-related emissions is reduced by 700 Mt carbon dioxide (or about 70% of the 2011 emissions in Japan) due to the population ageing in China.
The Convention on Biological Diversity and its Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 form the central pillar of the world's conservation commitment, with 196 signatory nations; yet its capacity to reign in catastrophic biodiversity loss has proved inadequate. Indicators suggest that few of the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi targets that aim to reduce biodiversity loss will be met by 2020. While the indicators have been criticized for only partially representing the targets, a bigger problem is that the indicators do not adequately draw attention to and measure all of the drivers of the biodiversity crisis. Here, we show that many key drivers of biodiversity loss are either poorly evaluated or entirely lacking indicators. We use a biodiversity-crisis hierarchy as a conceptual model linking drivers of change to biodiversity loss to evaluate the scope of current indicators. We find major gaps related to monitoring governments, human population size, corruption and threat-industries. We recommend the hierarchy is used to develop an expanded set of indicators that comprehensively monitor the human behaviour and institutions that drive biodiversity loss and that, so far, have impeded progress towards achieving global biodiversity targets.
Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables’ influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics—namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables—female-related predictors, in particular—have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.
Viewpoint article
World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice
WILLIAM J. RIPPLE, CHRISTOPHER WOLF, THOMAS M. NEWSOME, MAURO GALETTI, MOHAMMED ALAMGIR, EILEEN CRIST, MAHMOUD I. MAHMOUD, WILLIAM F. LAURANCE, and 15,364 scientist signatories from 184 countries.
http://scientistswarning.forestry.oregonstate.edu/signatories
Importance
Health care spending in the United States increased substantially from 1995 to 2015 and comprised 17.8% of the economy in 2015. Understanding the relationship between known factors and spending increases over time could inform policy efforts to contain future spending growth.
Objective
To quantify changes in spending associated with 5 fundamental factors related to health care spending in the United States: population size, population age structure, disease prevalence or incidence, service utilization, and service price and intensity.
Design and Setting
Data on the 5 factors from 1996 through 2013 were extracted for 155 health conditions, 36 age and sex groups, and 6 types of care from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s US Disease Expenditure 2013 project. Decomposition analysis was performed to estimate the association between changes in these factors and changes in health care spending and to estimate the variability across health conditions and types of care.
Exposures
Change in population size, population aging, disease prevalence or incidence, service utilization, or service price and intensity.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Change in health care spending from 1996 through 2013.
Results
After adjustments for price inflation, annual health care spending on inpatient, ambulatory, retail pharmaceutical, nursing facility, emergency department, and dental care increased by $933.5 billion between 1996 and 2013, from $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. Increases in US population size were associated with a 23.1% (uncertainty interval [UI], 23.1%-23.1%), or $269.5 (UI, $269.0-$270.0) billion, spending increase; aging of the population was associated with an 11.6% (UI, 11.4%-11.8%), or $135.7 (UI, $133.3-$137.7) billion, spending increase. Changes in disease prevalence or incidence were associated with spending reductions of 2.4% (UI, 0.9%-3.8%), or $28.2 (UI, $10.5-$44.4) billion, whereas changes in service utilization were not associated with a statistically significant change in spending. Changes in service price and intensity were associated with a 50.0% (UI, 45.0%-55.0%), or $583.5 (UI, $525.2-$641.4) billion, spending increase. The influence of these 5 factors varied by health condition and type of care. For example, the increase in annual diabetes spending between 1996 and 2013 was $64.4 (UI, $57.9-$70.6) billion; $44.4 (UI, $38.7-$49.6) billion of this increase was pharmaceutical spending.
Conclusions and Relevance
Increases in US health care spending from 1996 through 2013 were largely related to increases in health care service price and intensity but were also positively associated with population growth and aging and negatively associated with disease prevalence or incidence. Understanding these factors and their variability across health conditions and types of care may inform policy efforts to contain health care spending.
Global, national and regional population projections are embedded in projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and in the anticipated impacts of climate change on food and water security. However, few studies acknowledge population growth as a variable affecting outcomes. Neither the uncertainty around population projections nor the scope for interventions to moderate growth is discussed. Instead, a deterministic approach is taken, assuming that population growth is governed by economic and educational advances.
An international movement is calling for at least half of the Earth to be allocated for conservation. A global study now reveals that, in many ecoregions, enough habitat exists to reach this goal, and ideas are proposed for the next steps needed.
Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO2-equivalent (tCO2e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO2e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO2e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO2e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.
The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth’s sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event.
Research suggests that the scale of human population and the current pace of its growth contribute substantially to the loss of biological diversity. Although technological change and unequal consumption inextricably mingle with demographic impacts on the environment, the needs of all human beings—especially for food—imply that projected population growth will undermine protection of the natural world. Numerous solutions have been proposed to boost food production while protecting biodiversity, but alone these proposals are unlikely to staunch biodiversity loss. An important approach to sustaining biodiversity and human well-being is through actions that can slow and eventually reverse population growth: investing in universal access to reproductive health services and contraceptive technologies, advancing women’s education, and achieving gender equality.
Japan is shrinking. Current projections indicate a population decrease of around one quarter by mid-century. Depopulation is potentially good news, providing opportunities for reconfiguring living conditions and alleviating human-environmental pressures. Nevertheless, ageing and depopulation have outcomes that require adjustment. One of these is spatial inequalities, which have been accelerating since the 1990s. Japan is the Asia-Pacific’s pioneer ageing and shrinking society. In East Asia both China and South Korea are ageing and expected to begin shrinking soon. Even high immigration Anglophone countries such as New Zealand are experiencing post-growth demographic processes at subnational level. Japan’s significance is in how adaptive responses there inform prospects for others as they experience their own post-growth pathways. This article presents case studies of Sado Island in Japan and New Zealand’s South Island in a comparative qualitative analysis of rural agency under population decline. Overall, I contend there is potential for benefitting from demographic shrinkage – what I term a ‘depopulation dividend’ – and for rural regions in the Asia-Pacific to progress towards a sustainable post-growth economy and society.
This paper is an attempt to estimate the level of sustainable welfare, namely a level of consumption that can be enjoyed by all future generations. Based on available measures of the ecological footprint and biocapacity and assuming an acceptable level of per capita consumption, we estimate the maximum level of world population, which will allow that level of consumption without damaging the natural productive capacity of the earth. Also based on a criterion of the ability of each country to feed its people, we estimate the maximum size of population for the fifty most populated countries. It turns out that a few countries are underpopulated (Argentina, Canada, Russia, etc.), but most are overpopulated (China, India, Japan, etc.). We conclude by emphasizing the need for an ecumenical effort to educate and inform people about the need to reduce world population.
Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather, management and soil data, and upscaled to the whole country. We assessed potential grain production in the years 2030 and 2050 for six land use change scenarios (general decrease in arable land; declining ground water tables in the north; cropping of fallow areas in the south; effect of sea level rise; increased cropping intensity; and larger share of cash crops) and three levels of Yg closure (1: no yield increase; 2: Yg closure at a level equivalent to 50% (50% Yg closure); 3: Yg closure to a level of 85% of Yp (irrigated crops) and 80% of water-limited yield potential or Yw (rainfed crops) (full Yg closure)). In addition, changes in demand with low and high population growth rates, and substitution of rice by maize in future diets were also examined. Total aggregated demand of the three cereals (in milled rice equivalents) in 2030 and 2050, based on the UN median population variant, is projected to be 21 and 24% higher than in 2010. Current Yg represent 50% (irrigated rice), 48–63% (rainfed rice), 49% (irrigated wheat), 40% (rainfed wheat), 46% (irrigated maize), and 44% (rainfed maize) of their Yp or Yw. With 50% Yg closure and for various land use changes, self-suf-ficiency ratio will be N1 for rice in 2030 and about one in 2050 but well below one for maize and wheat in both 2030 and 2050. With full Yg closure, self-sufficiency ratios will be well above one for rice and all three cereals jointly but below one for maize and wheat for all scenarios, except for the scenario with drastic decrease in boro rice area to allow for area expansion for cash crops. Full Yg closure of all cereals is needed to compensate for area decreases and demand increases, and then even some maize and large amounts of wheat imports will be required to satisfy demand in future. The results of this analysis have important implications for Bangladesh and other countries with high population growth rate, shrinking arable land due to rapid urbanization, and highly vulnerable to climate change.
The threats of old are still the dominant drivers of current species loss, indicates an analysis of IUCN Red List data by Sean Maxwell and colleagues.
Voluntary family planning brings transformational benefits to women, families, communities, and countries. Investing in family planning is a development “best buy” that can accelerate achievement across the 5 Sustainable Development Goal themes of People, Planet, Prosperity, Peace, and Partnership.
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Many people are anxious about Australia’s ageing population. Others are optimistic. So is demographic ageing good for Australia or bad for Australia? This paper considers the positive and the negative case under five headings: labour-force participation, baby-boomers (and age- based discrimination), the tax base and social welfare, health-care costs, and older people’s voluntary work. It also contains a brief note on hyper-ageing, asks whether mass immigration can cure demographic ageing, and then explores the effects of the population growth that such immigration would induce on economic productivity.
Land carrying capacity (LCC) explains whether the local land resources are effectively used to support economic activities and/or human population. LCC can be evaluated commonly with two approaches, namely ecological footprint analysis (EFA) and the index system method (ISM). EFA is helpful to investigate the effects of different land categories whereas ISM can be used to evaluate the contributions of social, environmental, and economic factors. Here we compared the two LCC-evaluation approaches with data collected from Xiamen City, a typical region where rapid economic growth and urbanization are found in China. The results show that LCC assessments with EFA and ISM not only complement each other but also are mutually supportive. Both assessments suggest that decreases in arable land and increasingly high energy consumption have major negative effects on LCC and threaten sustainable development for Xiamen City. It is important for the local policy makers, planners and designers to reduce ecological deficits by controlling fossil energy consumption, protecting arable land and forest land from converting into other land types, and slowing down the speed of urbanization, and to promote sustainability by controlling rural-to-urban immigration, increasing hazard-free treatment rate of household garbage, and raising energy consumption per unit industrial added value. Although EFA seems more appropriate for estimating LCC for a resource-output or self-sufficient region and ISM is more suitable for a resource-input region, both approaches should be employed when perform LCC assessment in any places around the world.
Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in
many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis
of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically
be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living
when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement
would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account.
Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find
that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living.
Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a) briefly describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b) discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c) investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.
The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to rise rapidly in the developing world due to their economic growth and population growth—the latter most notably in the poorest countries.
Lowering fertility has many benefits for the poorest countries. Studies indicate that, in high fertility settings, fertility decline facilitates economic growth and poverty reduction. It also reduces the pressure on livelihoods, and frees up resources to cope with climate change. And it helps avert some of the projected global warming, which will benefit these countries far more than those that lie at higher latitudes and/or have more resources to cope with climate change.
Natural experiments indicate that family planning programs are effective in helping reduce fertility, and that they are highly pro-poor in their impact. While the rest of the world wrestles with the complexities of reducing emissions, the poorest countries will gain much from simple programs to lower fertility.
The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts
of population change and climate change on water resources is explored.
One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy
assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under
the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The
population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per
grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total
Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan.
Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios
and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios
employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level
rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis
implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the
world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future
greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already
water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of
Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity
analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region
could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a
further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not
increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most
of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already
water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies
are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future
water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate
more control over their future development pathways, even if these
countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas
(GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the
European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is
almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For
countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario
with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the
water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with
the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan
Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the
no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction
assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective
in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries.
However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population
stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water
stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due
to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research
is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of
climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the
space for adaptation.
The benefits of organic farming to biodiversity in agricultural landscapes continue to be hotly debated, emphasizing the importance of precisely quantifying the effect of organic vs. conventional farming.
We conducted an updated hierarchical meta-analysis of studies that compared biodiversity under organic and conventional farming methods, measured as species richness. We calculated effect sizes for 184 observations garnered from 94 studies, and for each study, we obtained three standardized measures reflecting land-use intensity. We investigated the stability of effect sizes through time, publication bias due to the ‘file drawer’ problem, and consider whether the current literature is representative of global organic farming patterns.
On average, organic farming increased species richness by about 30%. This result has been robust over the last 30 years of published studies and shows no sign of diminishing.
Organic farming had a greater effect on biodiversity as the percentage of the landscape consisting of arable fields increased, that is, it is higher in intensively farmed regions. The average effect size and the response to agricultural intensification depend on taxonomic group, functional group and crop type.
There is some evidence for publication bias in the literature; however, our results are robust to its impact. Current studies are heavily biased towards northern and western Europe and North America, while other regions with large areas of organic farming remain poorly investigated.
Synthesis and applications. Our analysis affirms that organic farming has large positive effects on biodiversity compared with conventional farming, but that the effect size varies with the organism group and crop studied, and is greater in landscapes with higher land-use intensity. Decisions about where to site organic farms to maximize biodiversity will, however, depend on the costs as well as the potential benefits. Current studies have been heavily biased towards agricultural systems in the developed world. We recommend that future studies pay greater attention to other regions, in particular, areas with tropical, subtropical and Mediterranean climates, in which very few studies have been conducted.
Jeroen Spijker and John MacInnes argue that current measures of population ageing are misleading and that the numbers of dependent older people in the UK and other countries have actually been falling in recent years.
Organic agriculture refers to a farming system that enhance soil fertility through maximizing the efficient use of local resources, while foregoing the use of agrochemicals, the use of Genetic Modified Organisms (GMO), as well as that of many synthetic compounds used as food additives. Organic agriculture relies on a number of farming practices based on ecological cycles, and aims at minimizing the environmental impact of the food industry, preserving the long term sustainability of soil and reducing to a minimum the use of non renewable resources. This paper carries out a comparative review of the environmental performances of organic agriculture versus conventional farming, and also discusses the difficulties inherent in this comparison process. The paper first provides an historical background on organic agriculture and briefly reports on some key socioeconomic issues concerning organic farming. It then focuses on how agricultural practices affect soil characteristics: under organic management soil loss is greatly reduced and soil organic matter (SOM) content increases. Soil biochemical and ecological characteristics appear also improved. Furthermore, organically managed soils have a much higher water holding capacity than conventionally managed soils, resulting in much larger yields compared to conventional farming, under conditions of water scarcity. Because of its higher ability to store carbon in the
soil, organic agriculture could represent a means to improve CO2 abatement if adopted on a large scale. Next, the impact on biodiversity is highlighted: organic farming systems generally harbor a larger floral and faunal iodiversity than conventional systems, although when properlymanaged also the latter can improve biodiversity.
Importantly, the landscape surrounding farmed land also appears to have the potential to enhance biodiversity in agricultural areas. The paper then outlines energy use in different agricultural settings: organic agriculture has higher energy efficiency (input/output) but, on average, exhibits lower yields and hence reduced productivity. Nevertheless, overall, organic agriculture appears to perform better than conventional farming, and provides
also other important environmental advantages, such as halting the use of harmful chemicals and their spread in the environment and along the trophic chain, and reducing water use. Looking at the future of organic farming, based on the findings presented in this review, there is clearly a need for more research and investment directed to exploring potential of organic farming for reducing the environmental impact of agricultural practices; however, the implications of reduced productivity for the socioeconomic system should also be considered and suitable agricultural policies should be developed.
Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If anything, countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more in recent decades. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes, and provide evidence and theoretical underpinnings for this argument.
Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.
We exploit a comprehensive restructuring of the early retirement system in Norway in 2011 to examine labor supply responses to increases in work incentives and actuarially neutral reductions in the age of first access to pension benefits. We find that increasing the returns to work is a powerful policy: The removal of an earnings test, implying a doubling of the average net take-home wage, led to an increase in average labor supply by 7 h per week (30%) at age 63 and by 8 h (46%) at age 64. The responses primarily came at the extensive margin. In contrast, reducing the access age has almost no effect on labor supply, in our setting with actuarially fair work incentives.
Land use and related pressures have reduced local terrestrial biodiversity, but it is unclear how the magnitude of change relates to the recently proposed planetary boundary (“safe limit”). We estimate that land use and related pressures have already reduced local biodiversity intactness—the average proportion of natural biodiversity remaining in local ecosystems—beyond its recently proposed planetary boundary across 58.1% of the world’s land surface, where 71.4% of the human population live. Biodiversity intactness within most biomes (especially grassland biomes), most biodiversity hotspots, and even some wilderness areas is inferred to be beyond the boundary. Such widespread transgression of safe limits suggests that biodiversity loss, if unchecked, will undermine efforts toward long-term sustainable development.
Tropical Africa is known to be lagging far behind the rest of the world in its fertility transition. Many attempts have been made to specify the factors responsible for its resistance to fertility decline; however, no systemic explanation of the mechanisms sustaining its high fertility has been presented in cross-cultural perspective. In this article, we show how a set of anthropological factors provides both social and economic foundations for the preservation of high fertility in tropical Africa. Cross-cultural tests imply that the most important obstacles to tropical Africa’s fertility transition are (a) a high ideal family size, (b) a large potential to absorb increases in the female labor force participation rate without any substantial decreases in fertility due to ample child care readily available through extended family structures, (c) a large potential to increase fertility at the early stages of economic development through the abolition of postpartum sex taboos, and (d) a low potential for increases in birth spacing to contribute to fertility decline. In the last section, we discuss how the results obtained could be useful for policy recommendations aimed at accelerating the fertility decline in tropical Africa, and mitigating the forecasts of explosive population growth.
The increasing abandonment of marginal land creates new opportunities for restoration, reintroduction, and rewilding, but what do these terms mean in a rapidly and irreversibly changing world? The ‘re’ prefix means ‘back’, but it is becoming clear that the traditional use of past ecosystems as targets and criteria for success must be replaced by an orientation towards an uncertain future. Current opinions in restoration and reintroduction biology range from a defense of traditional definitions, with some modifications, to acceptance of more radical responses, including assisted migration, taxon substitution, de-extinction, and genetic modification. Rewilding attempts to minimize sustained intervention, but this hands-off approach is also threatened by rapid environmental change.
Within a decade, women everywhere should have access to quality contraceptive services, argues John Bongaarts.
The demographic transition and its related effects of population growth, fertility decline and ageing populations are fraught with problems and controversy. When discussed in relation to the global south and the modern project of development, the questions and answers become more problematic.
Population and Development expertly guides the reader through the demographic transition's origins in the Enlightenment and Europe, through to the rest of the world. Whilst the phenomenon continues to cause unsustainable population growth with disastrous economic and environmental implications, the author examines how its processes have underlain previous periods of sustained economic growth; helped to liberate women from the domestic domain; and contributed greatly to the rise of modern democracy. This accessible and expert analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic theory.
We are destroying our natural environment at a constantly increasing pace, and in so doing undermining the preconditions of our own existence. Why is this so? This book reveals that our ecologically disruptive behavior is in fact rooted in our very nature as a species. Drawing on evolution theory, biology, anthropology, archaeology, economics, environmental science and history, this book explains the ecological predicament of humankind by placing it in the context of the first scientific theory of our species’ development, taking over where Darwin left off. The theory presented is applied in detail to the whole of our seven-million-year history. Due to its comprehensiveness, and in part thanks to its extensive glossary and index, this book can function as a compact encyclopedia covering the whole development of Homo sapiens. It would also suit a variety of courses in the life and social sciences. Most importantly, Too Smart makes evident the very core of the paradigm to which our species must shift if it is to survive. Anyone concerned about the future of humankind should read this ground-breaking work. This book: • Provides the first and only theory of humankind's development • Explains that economic and political (military) power have their respective biological bases in individual vs. group territoriality • Provides the first classification of human instincts: into the survival, sexual and social instincts • Provides the most inclusive characterization of different kinds of population check yet presented • Explains the importance of the anthropological, archaeological and economic findings of the past 50 years to understanding humankind's development • Clarifies the preconditions for human life on earth • Predicts what will happen to us in the near future
Historical examples of demographic change, in China, Italy, Nigeria, Utah, Easter Island, and elsewhere, together with simple mathematics and biological principles, show that stabilizing world population before it is limited by food supply will be more difficult than is generally appreciated. United Nations population projections are wrong because they assume, in spite of the absence of necessary feedbacks, that all nations will converge rapidly to replacement-level fertility and thereafter remain at that level. Education of women and provision of contraceptives have caused dramatic reductions in fertility, but many groups, including some that are well-educated, maintain high fertility. Small groups with persistent high fertility can grow to supplant low-fertility groups, resulting in continued growth of the total population. The global average fertility rate could rise even if each country's fertility rate is falling. In some low-fertility European countries where deaths exceed births, the population continues to grow because of immigration. Producing more than two offspring is normal for all animal species with stable populations, because their populations are limited by resources or predation rather than birth control. It may therefore be appropriate to view the growth of human population as the result not of excess fertility but rather of excess food.
Reversing ongoing declines in human welfare and biodiversity is at the core of human development. Although numerous institutions and avenues are in place to reverse such trends, there seems to be limited consideration of population growth as an ultimate driver. I review recent studies showing how the issue of population growth has been downplayed and trivialized among scientific fields, which may in part account for the reduced public interest in the issue and in turn the limited will for policy action. Different sources of evidence suggest that population growth could fundamentally affect society, nature, and the climate. Although tackling the issue of overpopulation will suffer from major impediments including scientific motivation, public scientific illiteracy, religion, and media attention, ongoing neglect of this issue will increase not only the extent of anthropogenic stressors but also the struggle associated with strategies to reverse biodiversity loss and improve human welfare.
This article examines recent ageing policies and the way they are framed. Here it identifies underlying but sometimes contradictory narratives of growth and decline. It concludes that the overall aim of such policies is to reconstitute elderly subjectivities, conduct and everyday experience in light of neoliberal ambitions for sustained economic growth and geopolitical anxieties about regional decline nurtured by an unprecedented demographic process of population ageing. As a consequence, the language of inclusion is judged to be of ambiguous value for elderly people. Although the article is critical of the ways older people are perceived as a problem and of the solutions – such as pension reform, biopolitical-cum-economic behaviour modification and pronatalism – that are being pursued, in response it also finds some potential in current thinking for a more radical reappraisal of the elderly lifestyle and of the life cycle as a whole in relation to work regimes. It speculates that the generation of post-war baby boomers now approaching retirement just might rediscover resources in its counter-cultural memory to imagine a more emancipatory elder life congruent with a more sustainable environment.
Adjusting aging forecasts to incorporate increases in longevity and health can provide better tools for policy-makers.
This paper investigates the relationship between emissions of carbon dioxide and the ongoing process of demographic transition in OECD countries. Our research is motivated by suggestions in the literature that emission-relevant consumption patterns may depend on the position in the life cycle and on the birth cohort to which people belong. We augment standard macroeconomic emission regressions by including the age and cohort composition of the population. Our estimation results on a panel of data for 26 countries, spanning the period 1960–2005, suggest that both life-cycle and cohort effects belong in a macroeconomic emission function for carbon dioxide. We find that shifts in both the age and the cohort composition have contributed to rising carbonemissions in OECD countries.