ArticlePublisher preview available

Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits

October 2018
Nature 562(7728)

DOI:10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0

Project: Global Futures & Strategic Foresight

Authors:

Daniel Mason-D'Croz

Cornell University

Keith Wiebe

International Food Policy Research Institute

Show all 23 authorsHide

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50–90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.

| Present (2010) and projected (2050) environmental pressures on five environmental domains divided by food group. Environmental pressures are allocated to the final food product, accounting for the use and impacts of primary products in the production of vegetable oils and refined sugar, and for feed requirements in animal products. Impacts are shown as percentages of present impacts, given a baseline projection to 2050 without dedicated mitigation measures for a middle-of-the-road socioeconomic development pathway (SSP2). Absolute impacts for all socioeconomic pathways are provided in the main text and the data referred to in the 'Data availability' statement (see Methods).

…

| Planetary option space. The figure shows combinations of dietary change, technological change (tech or tech+), changes in food loss and waste (waste/2 or waste/4), and socioeconomic development pathways (SSP1, SSP2 or SSP3). These changes are applied to baseline conditions in 2050 (baseline). The diet scenarios include diets aligned with global dietary guidelines (guidelines), and more plant-based flexitarian diets (flexitarian) that are reflective of the current evidence on healthy eating. The loss and waste scenarios include reducing food loss and waste by half (waste/2) and by 75% (waste/4). The technology scenarios include medium-ambition technological changes up to 2050 (tech) and more ambitious technological changes (tech+). The socioeconomic development pathways include a middle-of-the-road development pathway (SSP2), a more optimistic one with higher income and lower population growth (SSP1), and a more pessimistic one with lower income and higher population growth (SSP3). Colours and numbers indicate combinations that are below the lower bound of the planetary-boundary range (dark green, 1), below the mean value but above the minimum value (light green, 2), above the mean value but below the maximum (orange, 3), and above the maximum value (red, 4).

…

| Combination and relative contributions of mitigation measures that simultaneously reduce environmental impacts below the mean values of the planetary-boundary range. The mitigation measures include different levels of technological improvements for each environmental domain (measures of high ambition (tech+) for nitrogen and phosphorus application, and measures of medium ambition (tech) for GHG emissions and for cropland and bluewater use). The other measures are not differentiated by environmental domain, and include a halving of food loss and waste (waste/2), changes towards more plant-based flexitarian diets (FLX), and optimistic socioeconomic development with higher income and lower population growth (SSP1) than expected at present. A middle-ofthe-road development pathway is also feasible when combined with more ambitious reductions in food loss and waste (see Fig. 3).

…

Reduction in environmental impacts when measures are combined Shown are combinations of all measures of medium ambition (comb(med)) and of all measures of high ambition (comb(high)). The mitigation measures include changes in food loss and waste (loss&waste), technological change (technology) and dietary change (diets) for a middle-of-the-road development pathway. The differences to development pathways that are more optimistic (higher income and lower population growth) and more pessimistic (lower income and higher population growth) are indicated by the uncertainty range around the markers (socio-econ). Source data

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Overview of major flows of phosphorus at the global scale The external acceptable phosphorus (P) input is determined by the acceptable long-term accumulation of phosphorus in the soil (P soil) and sediment (P sediment) at a phosphorus concentration in surface waters (P surface water) that equals a critical threshold. The phosphorus boundary is affected by the fraction of phosphorus that is taken up by humans (P human; frPuptake being the P-use efficiency, PUE, of the complete food chain, from mined phosphorus (P mine) to P intake) and the fraction of phosphorus excreted by humans (P waste) that is not recycled to land (1 − frPrec), which becomes a point source for water pollution. This phosphorus can only be stored in sediment at a given phosphorus-retention fraction (frPret,sed), while the recycled phosphorus can additionally be stored in soil (at a retention fraction frPret,soil). The critical phosphorus input (Pin(crit)) can be calculated as the sum of critical phosphorus retention in the soil and sediment, and a critical input to surface water (oceans) that is due to run-off and leaching. The Supplementary Information contains a full derivation of phosphorus flows and quantitative estimates of critical phosphorus inputs. Source data

…

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ARTICLE https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0

Options for keeping the food system

within environmental limits

Marco Springmann1,2*, Michael Clark3, Daniel Mason-D’Croz4,5, Keith Wiebe4, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky6, Luis Lassaletta7,

Wim de Vries8, Sonja J. Vermeulen9,10, Mario Herrero5, Kimberly M. Carlson11, Malin Jonell12, Max Troell12,13,

Fabrice DeClerck14,15, Line J. Gordon12, Rami Zurayk16, Peter Scarborough2, Mike Rayner2, Brent Loken12,14, Jess Fanzo17,18,

H. Charles J. Godfray1,19, David Tilman20,21, Johan Rockström6,12 & Walter Willett22

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution

of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between

2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food

system could increase by 50–90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching

levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several

options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more

plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that

no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic

combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.

The global food system is a major driver of climate change

1,2

, land-use

change and biodiversity loss3,4, depletion of freshwater resources5,6, and

pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through nitrogen and

phosphorus run-off from fertilizer and manure application

7–9

. It has

contributed to the crossing of several of the proposed ‘planetary bound-

aries’ that attempt to define a safe operating space for humanity on a

stable Earth system10–12, in particular those concerning climate change,

biosphere integrity, and biogeochemical flows related to nitrogen and

phosphorous cycles. If socioeconomic changes towards Western con-

sumption patterns continue, the environmental pressures of the food

system are likely to intensify13–16, and humanity might soon approach

the planetary boundaries for global freshwater use, change in land use,

and ocean acidification

11,12,17

. Beyond those boundaries, ecosystems

could be at risk of being destabilized and losing the regulation functions

on which populations depend11,12.

Here we analyse the option space available for the food system to

reduce its environmental impacts and stay within the planetary bound-

aries related to food production. We build on existing analyses that

have advanced the planetary-boundary framework in terms of systemic

threats to large-scale ecosystems11,12,18–20, discussed the role of agricul-

ture with respect to those pressures10,21, and analysed the impacts on

individual environmental domains

22,23

, including selected measures

to alleviate those impacts22–24. The planetary-boundary framework

is not without criticism, particularly because of the heterogeneity of

the different boundaries and their underlying scientific bases, includ-

ing the difficulty of defining global ecosystem thresholds for local

environmental impacts25–27. Despite these limitations, we consider

the planetary-boundary framework to be useful for framing, in broad

terms, the planetary option space that preserves the sustainability of

key ecosystems. We acknowledge the ongoing debate by quantifying the

planetary boundaries of the food system in terms of broad ranges that

reflect methodological uncertainties (seeMethods), and by reporting

the environmental impacts in absolute terms (for example, emissions

in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents), which allows for comparisons

to other measures of environmental sustainability.

We advance the present state of knowledge by constructing and

calibrating a global food-systems model with country-level detail that

resolves the major food-related environmental impacts and includes

a comprehensive treatment of measures for reducing these impacts

(seeMethods). The regional detailof the model accounts for different

production methods and environmental impacts that are linked by

imports and exports of primary, intermediate and final products. We

use the food-system model and estimates of present and future food

demand to quantify food-related environmental impacts at the countr y

and crop level in 2010 and 2050 for five environmental domains and the

related planetary boundaries: greenhouse-gas (GHG) emission related

to climate change; cropland use related to land-system change; fresh-

water use of surface and groundwater; and nitrogen and phosphorus

application related to biogeochemical flows.

To characterize pathways towards a food system with lower envi-

ronmental impacts that stays within planetary boundaries, we connect

a region-specific analysis of the food system to a detailed analysis of

1Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. 2Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield

Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. 3Natural Resources Science and Management, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA. 4Environment and Production

Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA. 5CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,

St Lucia, Brisbane, Australia. 6Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany. 7CEIGRAM/Agricultural Production, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.

8Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands. 9WWF International, Gland, Switzerland. 10Hoffmann Centre for Sustainable Resource Economy,

Chatham House, London, UK. 11Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai’i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA. 12Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm

University, Stockholm, Sweden. 13Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden. 14EAT, Oslo, Norway. 15Agricultural Biodiversity and

Ecosystem Services, Bioversity International, Rome, Italy. 16Department of Landscape Design and Ecosystem Management, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, American University of Beirut,

Beirut, Lebanon. 17Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Berman Institute of Bioethics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA. 18Department of International Health of the

Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA. 19Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. 20Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior,

University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, USA. 21Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. 22Department of Epidemiology and

Department of Nutrition, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. *e-mail: marco.springmann@dph.ox.ac.uk

25 OCTOBER 2018 | VOL 562 | NATURE | 519

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The impact of global dietary guidelines on climate change

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Mar 2018
GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG

The global food system faces an ambitious challenge in meeting nutritional demands whilst reducing sector greenhouse gas emissions. These challenges exemplify dietary inequalities—an issue countries have committed to ending in accord with the Sustainable Development Goals (by 2030). Achieving this will require a convergence of global diets towards healthy, sustainable guidelines. Here we have assessed the implications of dietary guidelines (the World Health Organization, USA, Australian, Canadian, German Chinese and Indian recommendations) on global greenhouse gas emissions. Our results show a wide disparity in the emissions intensity of recommended healthy diets, ranging from 687 kg of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) capita⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the guideline Indian diet to the 1579 kg CO2e capita⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the USA. Most of this variability is introduced in recommended dairy intake. Global convergence towards the recommended USA or Australian diet would result in increased greenhouse gas emissions relative to the average business-as-usual diet in 2050. The majority of current national guidelines are highly inconsistent with a 1.5 °C target, and incompatible with a 2 °C budget unless other sectors reach almost total decarbonisation by 2050. Effective decarbonisation will require a major shift in not only dietary preferences, but also a reframing of the recommendations which underpin this transition.

Can our global food system meet food demand within planetary boundaries?

Article

Jan 2018
AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON

Global food demand is expected to increase, affecting required land, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs along with unintended emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHG) and losses of N and P. To quantify these input requirements and associated emissions/losses as a function of food demand, we built a comprehensive model of the food system and investigated the effects of multiple interventions in the food system on multiple environmental goals. Model outcomes are compared to planetary boundaries for land system change, climate change and the global N and P cycles to identify interventions that direct us towards a safe operating space for humanity. Results show a transgression of most boundaries already for 2010 and a drastic deterioration in the reference scenario for 2050 in which no improvements relative to 2010 were implemented. We defined the following improvements for 2050: reduction of waste, less consumption of animal products, higher feed conversion efficiency, higher crop and grassland yields, reduction of N and P losses from agricultural land and reduction of ammonia (NH3) volatilization. The effects of these measures were quantified individually and in combination. Significant trade-offs and synergies in our results underline the importance of a comprehensive analysis with respect to the entire food system, including multiple measures and environmental goals. The combination of all measures was able to partly prevent transgression of the boundaries for: agricultural area requirement, GHG emission and P flow into the ocean. However, global mineral N and P fertilizer inputs and total N loss to air and water still exceeded their boundaries in our study. The planetary boundary concept is discussed in relation to the selected variables and boundary values, including the additional necessity of eliminating the dependency of our food production on finite P reserves. We argue that total N loss is a better indicator of the environmental impacts of the global N cycle than fertilizer N input. Most measures studied in this paper are also on the agenda of the United Nations for Sustainable Development, which gives added support to their implementation.

Planetary Boundaries for Biodiversity: Implausible Science, Pernicious Policies

Article

Nov 2017
TRENDS ECOL EVOL

The notion of a 'safe operating space for biodiversity' is vague and encourages harmful policies. Attempts to fix it strip it of all meaningful content. Ecology is rapidly gaining insights into the connections between biodiversity and ecosystem stability. We have no option but to understand ecological complexity and act accordingly.

Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention

Article

May 2017
NATURE

Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.

Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio

Technical Report

Apr 2017

This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as well as for key SDGs of importance to the developing world. The report serves as a source of information and evidence of the impact of CGIAR efforts in agricultural R&D as well as the role of complementary investments. It is intended to help the CGIAR Centers, CG Research Programs (CRP), system management, and donors to complement other efforts to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs. Available online at: http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/131144