No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
U.S. fossil fuel resources: Terminology, reporting, and summary
... Use of statistical distributions can be simple, but nevertheless effective: the USGS, for example, assigns a range to all of the relevant variables studied, assumes a triangular (or similar) probability distribution across each range, and combines these using a simple random sampling technique [7]. 6 A final issue is the potential for future technical change to increase resource estimates. Most contemporary studies estimate the TRR, which explicitly excludes the adoption of future technologies, but arguably a more useful measure is the URR which takes this into account. ...
... Sources: [5,23,45e47]. 6 The USGS approach to uncertainty is not exclusive to unconventional resources but is also commonly applied to other petroleum resources such as conventional oil and gas [3,62]. ...
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources remain highly uncertain, even in regions with a relatively long history of shale gas production. This paper examines the reasons for these uncertainties, focussing in particular on the methods used to derive resource estimates. Such estimates can be based upon the extrapolation of previous production experience in developed areas, or from the geological appraisal of undeveloped areas. The paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods, the level of uncertainty in the results and the implications of this for current policy debates. We conclude that there are substantial difficulties in assessing the recoverable volumes of shale gas and that current resource estimates should be treated with considerable caution. Most existing studies lack transparency or a rigorous approach to assessing uncertainty and provide estimates that are highly sensitive to key variables that are poorly defined - such as the assumed ratio of gas-in-place to recovered gas (the ‘recovery factor’) and the assumed ultimate recovery from individual wells. To illustrate the uncertainties both within and between different methodological approaches, we provide case studies of resource estimates for the Marcellus shale in the US and three basins in India.
... Use of statistical distributions can be simple, but nevertheless effective: the USGS, for example, assigns a range to all of the relevant variables studied, assumes a triangular (or similar) probability distribution across each range, and combines these using a simple random sampling technique [7]. 6 A final issue is the potential for future technical change to increase resource estimates. Most contemporary studies estimate the TRR, which explicitly excludes the adoption of future technologies, but arguably a more useful measure is the URR which takes this into account. ...
... Sources: [5,23,45e47]. 6 The USGS approach to uncertainty is not exclusive to unconventional resources but is also commonly applied to other petroleum resources such as conventional oil and gas [3,62]. ...
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources remain highly uncertain, even in regions with a relatively long history of shale gas production. This paper examines the reasons for these uncertainties, focussing in particular on the methods used to derive resource estimates. Such estimates can be based upon the extrapolation of previous production experience in developed areas, or from the geological appraisal of undeveloped areas. The paper assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods, the level of uncertainty in the results and the implications of this for current policy debates. We conclude that there are substantial difficulties in assessing the recoverable volumes of shale gas and that current resource estimates should be treated with considerable caution. Most existing studies lack transparency or a rigorous approach to assessing uncertainty and provide estimates that are highly sensitive to key variables that are poorly defined-such as the assumed ratio of gas-in-place to recovered gas (the 're-covery factor') and the assumed ultimate recovery from individual wells. To illustrate the uncertainties both within and between different methodological approaches, we provide case studies of resource estimates for the Marcellus shale in the US and three basins in India.
... The recent steady increase in US fossil fuel production started in 2010 and continued through to 2015, which surpassed the previous 1970 peak in US fossil fuel production in 2011, and in 2015 production was 15.5% larger than the peak in 1970. This growth was brought on by a boom in natural gas and crude oil production from unconventional sources and advanced extraction techniques, such as shale gas, tight oil, oil sands and oil shale, and hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling [76,77]. These techniques and sources had been available for some time [78], but it was not until rising prices because of declining conventional production made their employment economically viable [79]. ...
This research used four-parameter multi-cycle logistic growth curve models on US Energy Information Agency annual data from 1949 to 2015 to produce fixed condition forecasts of US energy production and consumption to 2040. These models and forecasts were used to assess the ability of US energy production sources to meet demand, to anticipate production and technology challenges, and to make general policy recommendations. The logistic fixed condition forecasts indicated the ongoing increases in total US energy production dominated by crude oil and natural gas production will likely peak in 2017 (at 95.0 quadrillion “quad” BTU) then rapidly decrease through 2040 (at 36.2 quad BTU), while total US energy consumption indicated an ongoing plateau (at 98.1 quad BTU). New growth cycles not evident in the 2015 data will certainly occur, mitigating the decline in energy production before 2040. However, without adequate foresight and preemptive action, it is possible that new production growth would not be adequate to reverse the decline given historical growth trends. Therefore, in addition to continued increases in energy efficiency, reductions in use, and implementation of carbon management technologies, direct effort towards the sustainable development of substantial new growth cycles in all energy production sources (through adequate investment of resources) should be a priority of the US energy industry, policy makers, and the public alike.
... Growth of coal consumption was even higher ~131 % (achieved ~145 EJ in 2010), and its contribution to the global energy consumption was about 27.3 % [1]. Meanwhile, the share of coal energy in the proven world reserves is ~56 % (~19650 EJ) [4], thus depletion rate of coal reserves is slower than oil depletion rate. According to [5], oil production will reach its peak before 2020, at 2030 it will be necessary to replace more than two thirds of oil production reached in 2012 [6]. ...
The description is presented for 1D kinetic model designed to estimate the reduction zone volume of a downdraft gasifier. The equilibrium approach in gas-phase is used to determine the maximum value of temperature in a gasifier and initial conditions for modeling. Two main heterogeneous reactions of H2O and CO2 with fixed carbon are considered. The diffusion mass transfer limits rate of these reactions and penetration of gaseous reactants trough pores. The model validation for low temperatures is performed using experimental data along with homogeneous and random pore models. The calculation results are also presented for gas composition, temperature, fixed carbon conversion in the reactor reduction zone for steam-plasma gasification of coal. Several calculations were conducted varying the following parameters: oxidant flow rate, energy content of plasma and size of coal particles. The gas-phase composition at the end of the reduction zone and equilibrium composition of gasification products were compared.
Active research is being conducted to enable the integration of an alternate energy sources so as to replace petroleum based fuels. However, this research has been confined primarily within the auspices of a research laboratory. Of the various alternate energy source available today, biodiesel constitutes perhaps the most dominant and promising alternate energy source. A comprehensive analysis of the processes and effects involved with its integration would need to be conducted before said transition could occur as efficiently and as seamlessly as possible. These processes can recognize the mass appeal of biodiesel and its viability as a dominant energy source. This information can be used to develop a comprehensive methodology to achieve large-scale transfer of technology from the laboratory to the marketplace. Such a methodology needs to take into account the technological characteristics of the fuel production process, environmental effects of biodiesel emissions, and economic factors integral to the biodiesel supply chain. It is essential to analyze the characteristics and effects of this integration in order to successfully achieve the cost effective integration of this alternate fuel source into the marketplace. The aforementioned analysis would serve as a stepping stone or a foundation block to enable future research. This paper presents an overview of current practices and state of the art research focusing on integration of biodiesel into a mainstream marketplace.
All types of coal, petroleum, and natural gas are classified as fossil fuels. Humidity, ash, sulfur, volatile matters, nitrogen compounds, minerals, and other organic components that are present in the fuel affect its quality and the specific practical use it is suitable for. Gross calorific value, also called “high heating value” is the heat content of a fuel sample measured by burning it under laboratory conditions. Coal is a generic name given to solid hydrocarbon deposits. Two main methods of coal mining are “surface (or opencast) mining” and “underground (or deep) mining.” Deep mining is based on extracting coal from an underground coal seam. Burning coal emits large amounts of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides into the atmosphere. In addition, coal combustion products are formed as solid particles, “fly ash,” “bottom ash,” and “boiler slag.”.
Description
This manual highlights the most recent advances in petroleum upstream activities, with emphasis on
With the current climate of increased world population and consumption, the knowledge of advances in petroleum technology is vital to keeping fossil fuel usage affordable and clean. This book will be useful for designers, researchers, operators, managers, decision-makers, business professionals, and government officials.
Shale oil/gas is one of the most rapidly growing types of unconventional fossil fuel development and the abundance of this resource has postponed peak oil and gas. Physical scarcity of hydrocarbons is now less likely to occur in the near future; however, the likelihood of social scarcity is increasing. Despite the clear economic benefits of production in terms of jobs, tax revenue, and the provision of energy resources and industrial feedstocks, there is hostility toward shale oil/gas extraction in many parts of the world. This is due to concerns about how environmental, social, and economic impacts are managed and mitigated,and how risks and benefits are distributed among industry, governments and civil society.The application of sustainable development principles and sustainable operating practices is recommended as a partial remedy for this situation. Sustainability accounting frameworks based on criteria and indicators of sustainability and best practice codes of conduct represent two possible approaches for tracking how sustainable a firm’s practices are. These also provide a foundation for corporate social responsibility and can assist firms in gaining social license to operate. Also needed are estimates of a given operation’s net contribution to sustainable development. Possible methods include benchmarking against industry standards, achieving mature business conduct, gaining sustainability certification, demonstrated use of both design for environment and shared value creation methodologies, and integrated sustainability assessment. Conceptual progress has been made in applying sustainability to shale oil/gas; however, significant progress in applying these tools and methods in the field is needed because the sector tends to be judged by the behavior of the least responsible firm. Moreover, if best practices and shared value creation are set aside during the current or a future downturn, public cynicism about the sector will increase, and social license may be lost and even more difficult to regain.
Strong policies to address climate change will almost certainly require that large quantities of oil, natural gas, and coal remain underground. Because these resources have economic value, action to reduce carbon emissions means that fossil fuel owners and producers, and other entities in the fossil fuel supply chain, will experience a reduction in wealth. They will be on the receiving end of what we call the “Carbon Ask.” We compile disparate data sources, make some simplifying assumptions, and approximate the value of the Carbon Ask for the world as a whole. We find that the value of the world’s fossil fuel enterprise in a business-as-usual case, unconstrained by climate policy, is about 110 trillion, a decrease of $185 trillion, or 63 %. The Carbon Ask is equivalent to 2.4 years of global GDP. After reviewing the literature on resistance to technological innovation during the past two centuries and examining legal challenges to recent US greenhouse gas regulations, we find it unsurprising that the Carbon Ask creates powerful incentives for many stakeholders—who may be firms, workers, consumers, and governments—to resist policies to speed the development and diffusion of new, more environmentally benign technologies. We also find few precedents for policy-driven, rather than market-driven, technological transformations with a scale and scope similar to decarbonization of the global economy.
There is an ongoing dialogue in society about the place of energy resources in sustainability. One aspect of that discussion focuses on resource sustainability, the ability of governments and industry to ensure continued supply of needed resources. A related topic centers on the economic benefits and costs of fossil fuel production. Concerns about negative impacts on environmental social sustainability drive other parts of this conversation, and often lead to opposition to fossil fuel production and use. This paper uses the example of shale gas to argue that concentration on single sustainability aspects is inappropriate. Rather, development and production of these resources needs to be considered in the context of sustainable development, which necessitates integrating environmental and development strategies so as to satisfy current and future human needs. Integrated Sustainability Assessment (ISA) is proposed as a way to analyse the net contributions of a shale gas play to economic, environmental, social and resource sustainability. The latter topic is considered and variables that could be used in an ISA are proposed. Understanding, quantifying and communicating the nature and magnitude of the net contribution of shale gas to society will be a challenging, but essential, task in the process of responding to opposition in an open and constructive manner, one which ISAs can support.
It is increasingly claimed that the world is entering a ‘golden age of gas’, with the exploitation of unconventional resources expected to transform gas markets around the world. But the future development of these resources is subject to multiple uncertainties, particularly with regard to the size and recoverability of the physical resource. This paper assesses the currently available evidence on the size of unconventional gas resources at both the regional and global level. Focussing in particular on shale gas, it first explores the meaning and appropriate interpretation of the various terms and definitions used in resource estimation and then summarises and compares the different regional and global estimates that have been produced to date. It shows how these estimates have increased over time and highlights their variability, the wide range of uncertainty and the inadequate treatment of this uncertainty by most studies. The paper also addresses coal bed methane and tight gas and identifies those estimates that appear to be most robust for each region. The paper concludes that unconventional gas could represent 40% of the remaining technically recoverable resource of natural gas, but the level of uncertainty is extremely high and the economically recoverable resource could be substantially smaller.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any references for this publication.