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DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
A peer-reviewed, open-access journal of population sciences
DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
VOLUME 39, ARTICLE 22, PAGES 647–670
PUBLISHED 27 SEPTEMBER 2018
http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol39/22/
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.22
Research Article
WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of
demographic characteristics without access to
message content
Avi Rosenfeld Sigal Sina
David Sarne Or Avidov
Sarit Kraus
This publication is part of the Special Collection on “Social Media and
Demographic Research,” organized by Guest Editor Emilio Zagheni.
c
2018 Rosenfeld, Sina, Sarne, Avidov & Kraus.
This open-access work is published under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution 3.0 Germany (CC BY 3.0 DE), which permits use,
reproduction, and distribution in any medium, provided the original
author(s) and source are given credit.
See https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/de/legalcode
Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
Research Article
WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic
characteristics without access to message content
Avi Rosenfeld1
Sigal Sina2
David Sarne2
Or Avidov2
Sarit Kraus2
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Social networks on the Internet have become ubiquitous applications that allow peo-
ple to easily share text, pictures, and audio and video files. Popular networks include
WhatsApp, Facebook, Reddit, and LinkedIn.
OBJECTIVE
We present an extensive study of the usage of the WhatsApp social network, an Internet
messaging application that is quickly replacing SMS (short message service) messaging.
To better understand people’s use of the network, we provide an analysis of over 6 million
encrypted messages from over 100 users, with the objective of building demographic
prediction models that use activity data but not the content of these messages.
METHODS
We performed extensive statistical and numerical analysis of the data and found signif-
icant differences in WhatsApp usage across people of different genders and ages. We
also entered the data into the Weka and pROC data mining packages and studied models
created from decision trees, Bayesian networks, and logistic regression algorithms.
RESULTS
We found that different gender and age demographics had significantly different usage
habits in almost all message and group attributes. We also noted differences in users’
group behavior and created prediction models, including the likelihood that a given group
would have relatively more file attachments and if a group would contain a larger num-
1Jerusalem College of Technology, Jerusalem, Israel. Email: rosenfa@jct.ac.il.
2Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel.
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
ber of participants, a higher frequency of activity, quicker response times, and shorter
messages.
CONCLUSIONS
We were successful in quantifying and predicting a user’s gender and age demographic.
Similarly, we were able to predict different types of group usage. All models were built
without analyzing message content.
CONTRIBUTION
The main contribution of this paper is the ability to predict user demographics without
having access to users’ text content. We present a detailed discussion about the specific
attributes that were contained in all predictive models and suggest possible applications
based on these results.
1. Introduction
Social networks on the Internet have become ubiquitous applications, allowing people
to easily share text, pictures, and audio and video files. Popular networks include Face-
book, Reddit, and LinkedIn, all of which maintain websites that serve as hubs, facilitat-
ing people’s information sharing. In contrast, the relatively new WhatsApp application
is a smartphone application that enables people to share information directly via their
phones. Since its introduction in 2009, its growth has steadily increased, and as of April
2016, it has a user base of over a billion monthly active users.3Although many alter-
natives to WhatsApp are currently available in different online application stores (e.g.,
Kik, Telegram, Line Messenger, BBM, WeChat), WhatsApp is currently the most popu-
lar messaging application with the largest name recognition, by far the largest user base,
and the strongest corporate backing since its acquisition by Facebook in 2014. Given the
emerging importance of this network, it is not surprising that there is a growing interest in
researching it, including user studies about people’s WhatsApp use and possible applica-
tions (Jain, Eddy Luaran, and Rahman 2016; Gulacti et al. 2016; Fiadino, Schiavone, and
Casas 2014; Church and de Oliveira 2013; Pielot et al. 2014; O’Hara et al. 2014; Bouhnik
and Deshen 2014; Mudliar and Rangaswamy 2015; Montag et al. 2015; Johnston et al.
2015).
This paper’s main contribution is that we have successfully created models that pre-
dict WhatsApp usage patterns between different types of users and groups without relying
on the content of people’s text messages. As discussed in more detail in the following
section, prior studies about WhatsApp typically based their analysis on the content within
the messages (Wang, Burke, and Kraut 2013; Argamon et al. 2009; Wagner et al. 2015).
3http://www.wired.com/2016/02/one-billion-people-now-use-whatsapp.
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Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
Collecting and storing text messages is problematic for several reasons. First, privacy
concerns exist in storing and analyzing people’s messages and can raise significant ethical
concerns (Van Wel and Royakkers 2004). Second, storing all information from peoples’
text messages can require large amounts of storage space, which in turn increases the
cost of such analyses (Fan et al. 2006). Instead, we focus exclusively on general message
information, such as the message’s length, the size of the conversation group to which it
was sent, and temporal properties such as the time it was sent and how much time elapsed
between a given message and the previous one. Despite the lack of content, we success-
fully created models that predict usage patterns for different types of users and groups.
In previous studies, such patterns were found by checking a specific thesis via distribut-
ing and analyzing targeted questions from questionnaires (Church and de Oliveira 2013;
Pielot et al. 2014; O’Hara et al. 2014; Mudliar and Rangaswamy 2015). These previously
used methods are significantly more time-intensive than the automated machine learning
approach that we used. While this methodology has been used to study other social net-
works, including Facebook (Wang, Burke, and Kraut 2013; Xiang, Neville, and Rogati
2010; Bakshy et al. 2012) and MySpace (Thelwall, Wilkinson, and Uppal 2010), applying
the methodology to the WhatsApp network is significantly more complicated because, in
contrast to these other networks, no public dataset currently exists, probably because of
the medium involved. Whereas other social networks are primarily web-based, enabling
data to be compiled through web crawling, the WhatsApp network is based on individ-
uals’ private phone use and thus is not publicly available. Furthermore, these studies
typically use the messages’ actual content, something we intentionally did not use.
As we further describe in the following sections, we performed an in-depth study
based on WhatsApp messages and conversation groups by collecting over 6 million
WhatsApp messages from 111 students between the ages of 18 and 34. All messages
were encrypted with the HMAC hash function, making it impossible to discern the mes-
sages’ content. Even without using the messages’ content, our analysis revealed sev-
eral key insights. First, we did in fact find significant differences in WhatsApp usage
profiles across people of different genders and ages. Second, we generated predictive
models for different types of WhatsApp usage to demonstrate that these types of models
could be built by applying machine learning and data mining tools on WhatsApp data
when collected at the message level. Specifically, we entered the data into the Weka
data mining package (Witten and Frank 2005) and studied the output from decision tree
and Bayesian network algorithms. Additionally, we generated logistic regression models
using the pROC package in R (Robin et al. 2011). Despite our lack of relying on any
user-generated content whatsoever, these algorithms were successful in building mod-
els that can accurately predict a person’s gender and approximate age. They were also
successful in predicting which WhatsApp groups have certain qualities, such as higher
percentages of file attachments, quicker responses, larger discussion groups, and shorter
messages. One key advantage in analyzing the results from the decision tree algorithm
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
is that it generates an assessment of which attributes and logical rules were important in
building these prediction models, thereby providing additional insights. Last, we note the
importance of these results with possible future directions and applications.
2. Background
This work’s primary focus is to address how individuals behave on WhatsApp without
using the content of their messages. The WhatsApp social network is unique in several
ways. WhatsApp was developed to allow users to privately and freely send messages to
each other through their smartphones. It provides a free alternative to SMS (short mes-
sage services) which is often still a metered (pay per use) service. Not only is WhatsApp
often more cost effective than SMS, but it facilitates large group conversations, some-
thing that is difficult through SMS, if not impossible. While freely sharing information
over the Internet is common to many social networks, and other public messaging ser-
vices (such as Twitter) exist, the private nature of the WhatsApp network makes it rather
unique. Another difference between WhatsApp and other social networks is that mem-
bership is created and updated directly via people’s smartphones. Not only is registration
done exclusively through one’s phone number, but the smartphone is the primary inter-
face for sending and receiving messages.4Also, WhatsApp interpersonal conversation
groups are the network’s only communication medium. Groups are formed by adding
people’s telephone numbers to that group. In contrast, other social networks are based
on user membership and primarily focus on public messages (called ‘posts’ on Facebook
and ‘tweets’ on Twitter), where information is sent to all connected rather than through
private groups. Furthermore, Facebook is a network for publicly sharing photos, up-
dates, and general news with members who “follow” you. Twitter is a microblog network
where members interact through concise messages of up to 280 characters. Given these
and other differences between WhatsApp and other social networks, we believe that exist-
ing research about other networks is not necessarily applicable, and a new and thorough
analysis of WhatsApp is warranted.
Much recent work has been dedicated to the study of how people use WhatsApp
and the role of this new application in social communication. Most works to date have
analyzed peoples’ behavior through conducting surveys and targeted interviews. For ex-
ample, work by Church and de Oliveira (2013) conducted an online survey asking users
targeted questions that were aimed at understanding differences between WhatsApp and
SMS usage. Pielot et al. (2014) created a survey focusing on the question of whether
people expected an answer to their WhatsApp and SMS messages within several minutes.
O’Hara et al. (2014) interviewed 20 WhatsApp users for nearly an hour each, asking them
4While we note that a computer interface for WhatsApp exists, it is exclusively an interface for people’s
smartphones and offers no additional functionality.
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Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
semi-structured questions aimed at determining the nature of relationships forged with the
people with whom they communicated. Mudliar and Rangaswamy (2015) spent over 350
hours observing 109 students and conducted surveys to understand gender differences
within Indian students’ use of WhatsApp. All of these studies can be characterized as be-
ing formed to answer specific questions by conducting targeted surveys and interviews.
Our work is unique in that it uses statistical and data mining methods to study
WhatsApp usage at the message level without knowing the content of the messages. Mo-
tivation for our study, as for previous WhatsApp research, is to analyze differences be-
tween genders, the time that elapses until a message is answered, and the characteristics
of larger and smaller discussion groups. However, our study is fundamentally different
in that it is based solely on actual WhatsApp metamessage data, and creates predictive
models without any content knowledge. The issue of smartphone usage analysis was
recently studied, and one of the study’s conclusions was that people often inaccurately
report their own usage in questionnaires (Lin et al. 2015). Our methodology helps avoid
this issue. To our knowledge, only one other study, performed by Montag et al. (2015),
logged WhatsApp usage from nearly 2,500 participants. While the number of partici-
pants in this study is impressive, the actual data logged was significantly less robust than
in this study. They collected only general metadata about use, limited information about
WhatsApp messages and no information about the users’ group activity.
In theory, even more accurate models could have been constructed had we also an-
alyzed the messages’ content. Specifically, models that were previously developed can
predict a user’s gender, age, native language, or personality (Wang, Burke, and Kraut
2013; Argamon et al. 2009) based on content. Examples include work by Argamon et al.
(2009), which focused on creating models that identify word usage differences between
men and women on Internet blogs. Similarly, Wagner et al. (2015) focused on content
differences between men and women in Wikipedia, and Wang, Burke, and Kraut per-
formed a study of content differences between genders on Facebook (Wang, Burke, and
Kraut 2013). However, as the WhatsApp network is inherently private, such approaches
could not be applied in our case due to privacy concerns. As we now detail, even without
this information we were successful overall in predicting a user’s demographic and group
behavior.
3. Dataset creation and description
Given the private nature of the WhatsApp network, this study’s first challenge was to
create a WhatsApp message dataset while still ensuring users’ privacy. To do so, we
developed software that integrated with the Android Debug Bridge (ADB), which is an
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
external tool that can back up an Android application.5This enabled taking a “snapshot”
of a person’s groups and messages as they appear in that person’s phone. To make the data
anonymous, the software encrypts the data that was pulled directly from the participant’s
smartphone by using the hash-based message authentication code (HMAC). The entire
process of obtaining a participant’s data lasted approximately 15 minutes and we com-
pensated each participant $12 for their time and temporary inability to use their phones.
We also collected the participants’ general demographic information including their age,
gender, place of residence, and educational background. In addition, we asked them to
self-rate their sociability and WhatsApp usage on a five-point Likert scale (Low to High),
and to answer four Boolean questions dealing with whether they use WhatsApp for com-
munication with work, family, friends, or others. To guarantee that the study complied
with policies on ethical conduct, we obtained institutional review board (IRB) approval
before beginning data collection.
We found it challenging to recruit participants because people were quite reluctant
to provide information about their WhatsApp messages, even when we emphasized that
all content sent was encrypted, and that no nonencrypted content data was ever sent.
While we attempted to recruit participants from all age groups, we found that student
participants, found through advertisements on campus, were the demographic most will-
ing to participate. Nonetheless, we did make a concerted effort to find people in other
demographics through word of mouth. Through this process we recruited a total of 137
participants. Only 19 of these participants were not college-age students (18 through
34), so we removed these participants’ data from the analysis because this group was not
large enough to be validly divided into further age subgroups. Thus, we are aware that
the data collection process was biased for younger people, and we hope to address this in
the future through a different collection process for other age groups.
To remove any biases in our analysis from people who had not used WhatsApp for
long periods of time or who did not generally engage in WhatsApp conversations, we
further removed another 7 people who were active in WhatsApp for under 20 days or had
fewer than ten total WhatsApp groups. Thus, the dataset in this study contains messages
from 111 participants, of which 59 were female and 52 were male, all of them young
adults between 18 and 34 years of age, with a median age of 27. The 111 participants
sent and received a total of 6,449,631 messages over an average period of approximately
15 months.6
The defining characteristic for the logged data is that it intentionally contains no tex-
tual content. All types of textual content are unavailable, including any special characters
or emojis that exist in the messages. Similarly, we stress that we have no information
about the message recipients other than an anonymous ID because all data is anonymous.
5Both the ADB software and the data collected are available from the authors.
6The software we used collected all the data on the phone, hence the time period over which data was collected
varied according to when users started using WhatsApp and their habit of deleting old messages (if at all).
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Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
While we did not have the messages’ content or recipient information, we were
nonetheless still able to glean a great deal of usage information regarding message and
group statistics. The first type of information focused on general information surround-
ing the messages’ characteristics, such as when they were sent, the number of words in
the message, whether the message included a file, and the length of time that elapsed
before a response was sent. Once we had all of the messages, we discretized their time
into categories based on the percentages of messages sent over each hour-long interval
(e.g., messages sent between 5:00pm and 6:00pm). Similarly, we discretized the num-
ber of messages into the categories of 1, 2, 3–5, 6–10, 11–20, and 20+ words. We then
discretized messages according to the time that elapsed between messages – under 1,
1–2, 3–5, 6–15, 16–30, and 31–60 minutes. The motivation behind this process is our
assumption that messages that appear within a relatively short time interval in the same
group might be related to the same conversation. We emphasize that by no means does
the elapsed time category imply that a message that appeared more than an hour after
the last message was sent in a given group is not related to former messages, except that
with no other supporting data (i.e., the content itself) it is impossible to make a concrete
connection to prior messages. Hence, the time elapsed is the only possible, though not
a perfect, indication for relevance. We also discretized messages according to their file
attachments and created Boolean categories of messages with and without files.
The second type of logged information concerned WhatsApp conversation groups.
This dataset contained a total of 10,730 such groups from the 111 users. Note that groups
with two participants are similar to a typical SMS conversation, and thus through log-
ging this data we could test the degree to which WhatsApp has replaced traditional SMS
messaging. However, groups might also be formed around a general topic, such as a dis-
cussion about work, leisure, or family issues with many more than two participants. We
logged information about the group size of all of the messages and categorized this in-
formation into the percentage of messages in trivially small groups of two people, groups
of three to four participants, and those with five or more participants. We also collected
group statistics that subsume those within the message analysis, but we refer to the per-
centage of messages within a group having a certain attribute (e.g., the percentage of
messages sent at a certain time, of a certain length, containing a file, etc.).
4. Descriptive statistics
The general methodology assumption behind this paper is that the analysis must be data-
driven. Therefore we use the data to support any assumptions about the nature of the
data. In contrast, previous studies typically assume some type of behavior and then con-
struct questionnaires to prove or disprove that assumption (Church and de Oliveira 2013;
Pielot et al. 2014; O’Hara et al. 2014; Mudliar and Rangaswamy 2015). For the data-
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
driven approach to be successful, significant differences must be evident across different
demographic groups within the data. To confirm this assumption, we checked that such
differences did in fact exist and were statistically significant.
Specifically, we analyzed the basic distribution of messages, focusing on the statis-
tical distributions across different genders, ages, and types of use. We found that over
70% (71.5%) of WhatsApp groups had only two participants (7,671 out of the 10,730),
confirming previous assertions that WhatsApp is replacing SMS messaging (Church and
de Oliveira 2013). On the flipside, over 50% of all messages were not in groups of
two (3,713,052 out of 6,449,631), indicating that, typically, larger groups were fruitful
grounds for larger discussions – something that SMS typically does not support. To bet-
ter understand this point, please note these differences using the graphical distributions of
the number of groups of each size in Figure 1 and the distribution of all messages in those
same groups in Figure 2. We note that the number of two-person groups is overwhelm-
ingly large (71.5%), but that the number of messages in these groups is significantly
smaller (42.43%).
Figure 1: The distribution of the number of groups of each size within the
10,730 groups collected
Note: Notice the very large percentage of groups with only two people.
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Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
Figure 2: The distribution of the number of messages within each group size
Note: Notice the more balanced percentage of messages in groups with more than two people.
Notably, we found that while the number of groups with over 50 members is less
than 1%, these groups have a disproportionately large number of messages (8.37%). We
believe that the reason for this is clear: Larger groups tend to have larger numbers of
messages in each group. Thus, we find that a large percentage of WhatsApp activity
is in fact taking the place of traditional SMS messages between two people. However,
group messaging among large numbers of users, another key use of WhatsApp which
SMS is less successful in supporting, also constitutes a large percentage of the WhatsApp
messages we collected.
We then studied the statistical distribution of the messages’ attributes, starting with
the average response time (the time that elapsed between any two messages in a con-
versation), which can be found in Figure 3. Please note that the average response time
is quite short. Over one half (57.82%) of all messages are responses that were com-
posed within one minute. This finding again confirms previous claims that WhatsApp
has become a replacement for traditional SMS messaging because most participants an-
swer their messages quite quickly – something that is expected with SMS messaging
(Church and de Oliveira 2013). We also analyzed the message types sent. We found that
most of the messages (approximately 99%) were exclusively text messages, while only
1% included file attachments or links. Last, we studied the distribution of the messages
throughout the day (which is visually represented in Figure 4). As expected, very few
messages were sent overnight, with under 5% (4.36%) being sent between midnight and
4:00 a.m. and only 2.37% being sent between 4:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m. Note that fewer
messages were sent between 8:00 a.m. and noon (18.04%) compared to approximately
25% of all messages being sent in each of the other four-hour intervals. In fact, we note
no significant difference in the number of messages being sent in these three intervals (p-
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
score >0.1), while a significantly smaller number of messages were sent between 8:00
a.m. and 12 p.m. (p-score << 0.01).
Figure 3: Analysis of reply time to all messages in the dataset: Most
messages answered within one minute
Figure 4: The distribution of messages per time of day (over all messages in
the dataset)
Note: Given the young adult demographic, it should not be surprising that noon to midnight is the most active usage
time.
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Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
Table 1: WhatsApp main statistics (average number of messages sent,
received, sent-received ratio, and total, per day, and according to
the group size) per gender
Total Male Female Higher value Ratio M/F
Participants 111 52 59 Female 0.88
AvgSent/Day 38.47 29.83* 46.09* Female 0.65
AvgRcv/Day 106.75 104.29 108.92 Female 0.96
AvgMsg/Day 145.22 134.12 155.02 Female 0.87
RatioSend/Rcv 0.43 0.37** 0.49** Female 0.76
AvgNumGroups 64.26 65.35 63.31 Male 1.03
% of Groups of 2 57.87 55.31 60.13 Female 0.92
% of Groups of 3–5 14.66 12.65 16.43 Female 0.77
% of Groups of 6–10 10.29 10.31 10.27 Same 1.00
% of Groups of 11–20 8.64 11.05** 6.52** Male 1.70
% of Groups of 21–50 7.14 8.55 5.91 Male 1.45
% of Groups of 51+ 1.4 2.13** 0.75** Male 2.84
Note: Many of these differences are statistically significant and are denoted with one star for significance below the
p-score threshold of 0.1, and two stars for differences below a p-score threshold of 0.05.
Table 1 contains several additional gender-related insights. First, we found that
women on average sent and received more messages than men. Women sent and received
over 155 messages a day, whereas men sent and received approximately 134 messages
(row 4), a difference of approximately 15%. Of these messages, women sent on average
approximately 46 messages a day and received 109 messages, whereas men sent an aver-
age of slightly less than 30 messages a day and received about 104 messages (rows 2–3).
Thus, men evidently sent fewer messages on average than women, something which was
also evident in the differences in the ratios between sent and received messages (row 5).
Second, while on average both genders participated in a similar number of conversations
overall (63–65 groups), the distribution of the various group sizes between the genders
was different. Women were more active in smaller conversation groups (60.13% versus
55.31% in groups with two participants), whereas men were more active in larger groups
(11.05% for men versus 6.52% for women in groups of 11–20, 8.55% versus 5.91% in
groups of 21–50 and 2.13% versus 0.75% in groups bigger than 50) (rows 6–12).
We note which of these differences proved statistically significant by using a two-
tailed t-test. Cells that are annotated with one star (i.e., AvgSent/Day) recorded a p-score
of under 0.1 (0.06), while those cells with two stars were below the 0.05 significance level
(0.02, 0.01, and 0.04 for the RatioSend/Rcv, groups sized 11–20 and 51+ respectively).
Thus, we note that significant differences do exist between the genders’ behavior.
We also found that there were significantly different WhatsApp usage patterns be-
tween different genders and age groups. Table 2 provides details to support this claim. We
present the general statistics of two different demographic groups: (1) men and women
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
and (2) WhatsApp users younger than 25 (the median age) and aged 25 or older. We se-
lected these age distributions based on a previous large-scale statistical analysis of What-
sApp user ages in the general population (http://www.statista.com/statistics/290447/age-
distribution-of-us-whatsapp-users).7Note the differences between the average number of
total messages per day (AvgMsgDay), groups per user (AvgGroup/Usr) and differences
in the users’ responses to the questionnaire items in which they self-rated their sociality
(SocialLevel), overall usage (UsageLevel), differences in the Boolean values (averaged
based on values of 0 and 1), and usage in communicating with friends (UsageFriend),
family (UsageFamily), and work (UsageWork). In fact, we tested all pairs of numbers
for statistical significance (two-tailed t-test) and found that all differences were signifi-
cant (p-score << 0.05) except where noted with a “#” at the end of each pair, as is the
case of the UsageWork numbers in the pair of people 25 or older and younger than 25.
Additionally, we found significant differences in the usage patterns across group usage
with people who were members of these different demographics. Note the differences in
the average number of minutes a user took to respond to a message (AvgResponse), the
percentage of their messages that were five words or fewer (Msgs5orLessWrd), the per-
centage of their messages that were quick responses within five minutes (%RespUnder5),
the average message length (AvgTextLength), and the distribution of messages across dif-
ferent times (midnight to 4:00 a.m., 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m., and 8:00 p.m. to midnight).
We also found that usage styles were different in regards to the percentage of files found
in users’ groups of different genders and ages (UseFile) and the percentage of groups of
which they were members that had five or more total users (isGrp5+).
We find some of the differences in Table 2 intuitive and others surprising. We are not
surprised to find that younger people are more likely than older ones to send messages
late at night, and thus relatively older people send a higher percentage of their messages
during the day. One could find support for gender differences in people’s self-rating of
how much they use WhatsApp to communicate with family versus work, similar to previ-
ously observed differences in gender expressions (Kring and Gordon 1998). However, we
could not find a clear explanation as to why men seem to send more files in their groups
than women or why older people participate in larger groups more often than younger
people. These differences might point to new directions that could be confirmed with fur-
ther research and questionnaires. For example, a possible hypothesis for the differences
in group sizes across different ages is that younger people have more thoroughly adopted
WhatsApp as a replacement for SMS messaging and consequently a larger percentage of
their communication can be found in these smaller groups.
7We leave analysis of different age groups for future studies.
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Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
Table 2: Results across different genders and ages in the WhatsApp dataset
Avg Avg Social Usage Usage Usage Usage
Participants MsgDay SentDay AveAge Level Level Friend Family Work
Overall 111 145.22 38.47 24.32 4.02 3.68 0.91 0.54 0.19
Male 52 134.12 29.83 24.33# 4.02# 3.44 0.9 0.48 0.25
Female 59 155.02 46.09 24.31# 4.02# 3.89 0.93 0.6 0.15
LessThan25 63 176.74 45 22.21 4.03 3.75 0.92 0.52 0.18
25orMore 48 103.85 29.91 27.01 4 3.58 0.91 0.58 0.21
Ave %Msgs5or %Resp AvgText Hours Hours Hours
Response LessWrd Under5 Len. 0–4 8–12 21–24 UseFile isGrp5+
Overall 4.80 0.41 0.41 5.66 0.04 0.18 0.25 0.14 0.22
Male 4.89 0.42 0.42 5.49 0.05 0.17 0.24# 0.14# 0.24
Female 4.71 0.40 0.41 5.81 0.04 0.19 0.25# 0.14# 0.19
LessThan25 5 0.39 0.39 5.84 0.05 0.19 0.26 0.08 0.24
25orMore 4.52 0.42 0.44 5.43 0.04 0.17 0.23 0.21 0.18
Note: Nearly all differences are statistically significant except those noted by a “#” symbol.
5. Predictive models and hypotheses
As we demonstrated in the previous section, significant differences do in fact exist be-
tween different types of WhatsApp users and groups. However, even statistically signif-
icant differences do not necessarily allow us to predict usage patterns. For example, the
previous section demonstrated that men typically send shorter messages and women send
and receive more messages per day. However, these differences do not necessarily allow
us to make a prediction about a specific user – something that data mining algorithms do
in fact allow, as we now present. To illustrate the potential of using the collected data for
prediction purposes, we created several predictive models for the user and group datasets,
which we describe in this section.
User models were based on the 111 users in this dataset and were built to identify
whether the author of a given set of WhatsApp posts is of a given gender or age. Our first
hypothesis is that differences between WhatsApp users can be predicted by exclusively
using general statistics about usage, even without specific user content. In accordance
with the results reported in the previous section, we posit that such differences will prob-
ably use attributes such as message length and response time because such attributes
might be affected by known gender differences (Kring and Gordon 1998). For example,
one might find that women write more to better express their ideas or emotions, while
men write more curtly. Similarly, one might find that differences in response time or
average conversation length reflect emotional difference – e.g., women may prefer dis-
cussions in small groups while men prefer less personal, larger discussions. In a similar
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vein, one might find differences between ages, even within one gender. Such differences
may be somewhat obvious, such as the time at which a message is sent – e.g., people of
certain ages might be more or less likely to work and thus be less likely to send mes-
sages at certain times. But less obvious differences might exist too, such as differences in
message length.
Our second hypothesis, based on the differences reported in accordance with the
various statistics described in the former section, is that different types of group usage
can be predicted based on general group attributes, again even without considering the
messages’ content. Specifically, we develop models that predict which groups will have
a certain type of content such as file attachments or shorter messages. We also develop
group models that predict which groups will have certain user activity, such as a larger
quantity or more frequent messages, and quicker response times. In theory, other usage
questions could have been studied, such as if a message contained certain text – e.g., in-
appropriate or flagged for a certain type of content. However, because we have no access
to message content, these issues cannot be evaluated. Similarly, it may be possible that
certain messages are inherently different and thus likely to be more popular or important.
Along these lines, models might be created to predict which messages are apt to have
certain characteristics, such as being forwarded – something that was previously studied
within the Twitter network (Naveed et al. 2011). However, once again that study focused
on the message content, which is often infeasible to rely on in real-life settings, due to
either privacy constraints or availability.
The advantage of using data mining algorithms to test these hypotheses is the objec-
tivity of the results. On a technical level, we built models from decision trees, as imple-
mented in the C4.5 algorithm (Quinlan 1996) to create classifiers between two choices
(Boolean). The C4.5 algorithm was chosen because of two main advantages. First, C4.5
identifies which attributes are most important for accurate prediction by using the Info-
Gain measure to rank the predictive ability of all attributes. This allows us to objectively
identify which factors are most important for accurate prediction. Second, the if-then
rules output by these algorithms allow us to observe and analyze the exact range of values
within the selected attributes that form the prediction model. Furthermore, we consider
many tasks – such as if a user is male or female, or above or below a certain age – which
are inherently Boolean decisions and are thus well suited for C4.5. To handle continu-
ous attributes, we transformed the target variables into two categories through binning
according to preset cutoff thresholds. For example, in creating the quick-response-time
model, we chose a response threshold of one minute. We then created a Boolean classifier
and assumed that anyone who answered within 1 minute answered quickly and those who
answered after one minute, even if they answered only seconds after one minute, did not.
More specifics of the models and their findings are in the next section.
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Table 3: Authorship identification prediction of gender and age based on
average WhatsApp user data
Model name Size Baseline D.T. Acc. D.T. AUC Bayes Acc. Bayes AUC Logistic all 95% CI
User gender 111 53.15 62.16 0.55 61.26 0.6 0.81 0.73–0.89
User age 111 56.76 60.36 0.63 54.96 0.59 0.74 0.65–0.83
Note: The first column presents the number of records in the database. The second column represents the
accuracy baseline through classifying all records as per the largest category. The third and fourth columns
respectively present the accuracy and ROC of the decision tree model. The fifth and sixth respectively present the
accuracy and ROC of the Bayesian model. The seventh and eighth columns are the ROC and confidence intervals
of the logistic regression model.
Table 4: Predicting gender, age, file usage, time messages are sent, large
group size, high message activity, predominance of short messages
and quick responses through group activity in WhatsApp
Model name Size Baseline D.T. Acc. D.T. AUC Bayes Acc. Bayes AUC Logistic all 95% CI
Gender group 10730 52.75 60.68 0.65 56.08 0.58 0.94 0.93–0.94
Age group 10730 33.19 37.91 0.36 62.22 0.57 0.96 0.96–0.97
Files 1% 10730 51.59 67.07 0.72 68.23 0.75 0.82 0.82–0.83
Time 5–9 10730 72.04 67.39 0.58 59.94 0.67 0.74 0.73–0.75
Group size 5+ 10730 82.09 90.87 0.9 76.7 0.85 0.94 0.93–0.94
5+ Msg/day in group 10730 71.11 82.79 0.87 73.52 0.83 0.89 0.88–0.89
75% Short messages 10730 73.77 69.83 0.61 63.22 0.66 0.72 0.71–0.73
Quick responses 0.25 10730 88.15 94.84 0.95 80.72 0.92 0.99 0.99–0.99
Note: The first column presents the number of records in the database. The second column represents the
accuracy baseline through classifying all records as per the largest category. The third and fourth columns
respectively present the accuracy and ROC of the decision tree model. The fifth and sixth respectively present the
accuracy and ROC of the Bayesian model. The seventh and eighth columns are the ROC and confidence intervals
of the logistic regression model.
6. Data analytic results
In general, we built two types of models using the popular open source Weka data min-
ing package (Witten and Frank 2005): decision trees and probabilistic models based on
Bayesian networks. We did consider other models, but the Bayesian models often did
better than the other alternative algorithm, so we present results from this algorithm for
comparison. Within the user models, standard ten-fold cross-validation was used to as-
sess all models because the validation set was always a different set of users than those
used in the training data. While we also considered using standard cross-validation in or-
der to assess the group prediction models, we rejected this approach because sometimes
we noted that both the training and testing datasets contained groups from the same user.
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
Instead, for each group model we generated ten randomized splits which ensured that a
user’s groups were within only the training or the testing dataset. While the resultant
stratified training-testing splits were not always of the same size, they did guarantee that
we did not overfit by having the same user in both the training and testing data.
We also created logistic regression models using the pROC package in R (Robin
et al. 2011). While these models were not validated using cross-validation, we did gener-
ate confidence intervals at the 95% level. These models provide additional confirmation
and comparison of our results to a linear model, including the statistical analysis provided
by the confidence intervals.
Overall, we were successful in predicting a user’s gender and approximate age based
on users’ general data, as can be seen in Table 3. The first column in the table presents
how many records were in each dataset. The second column represents a baseline accu-
racy which, is constructed by classifying all records as belonging to the larger category
(referred to as ZeroR in Weka). For example, the user dataset contains 59 women and 52
men. Assuming all users are female would have an accuracy of 53.15% (see column 2,
row 1) and 63 of the 111 users were younger than 25, thus leading to a baseline value of
56.76% (see column 2, row 2). Minimally, a successful model should at least be more
accurate than this value. The next two columns present the accuracy and area under the
curve (AUC) of the decision tree model, with the following two columns presenting the
accuracy and AUC of the corresponding Bayesian model. The last two rows present the
AUC and confidence intervals at the 95% level for the logistic regression model in the
pRoc package in R. The first row presents the results for predicting gender based on the
data and the second row presents the results for predicting age – i.e., 25 or older versus
under 25 years old. This cutoff was chosen because it represented roughly a 50/50 split
within the data. Note that both models were successful in both tasks: The predictions’
accuracies were much greater than the baseline values.
Figure 5: Decision tree predicting male or female from all collected user data
Note: Here, usage level was found to be an effective classifier.
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Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
Figure 6: Decision tree predicting user age from user data
Note: Here, the classification relies on the percentage of groups with more than 50 members within the overall set
of groups of which the user is member, the average number of messages per day, and the percentage of groups
with more than five members.
An advantage in building decision trees is noting the logical rules and the attributes
in the learned models. We studied this output from the decision tree models. We noted
that the decision tree for predicting gender focuses on the usage level, the response time
and the number of large groups a user had. Specifically, we found that men overall self-
reported lower usage levels, on average took longer to respond, and have large groups.
A slightly simplified version of the gender decision tree is presented in Figure 5. Note
that this rule is relatively simple: If the user self-rated a usage level of 3 or less, they
were male, otherwise they were female. Despite the simplicity of this decision tree, it
still yielded an accuracy of 63.56%. Nonetheless, more complex models could be built
with both decision trees and Bayesian networks as reported in Table 3.
Using a similar methodology, we were able to differentiate between users below the
age of 25 and those above it. Here, we noted that younger people had more messages a
day (AvgMsgDay) and were likely to be in groups with more than five people (isGrp5+).
The decision tree for predicting age, found in Figure 6, shows the exact rules behind this
classifier. The model predicted that if a person had more than 1.33% of all groups be-
longing to a group of 50 or more members then they were under 25, but if they had fewer
than this number of large groups and received on average of fewer than 117 messages per
day they were 25 or older. Otherwise, a third rule was needed to differentiate between
younger people, with more than 8.62% of their groups constituting five or more people,
and older people, with fewer groups of this size. We again note that while these rules are
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
consistent with the general trends seen in Figure 2, the decision tree provides a predictive
model with exact thresholds that predict differences between the groups.
We also created models for the gender and age prediction tasks using the group
dataset, the results of which are in the first two rows of Table 4. Overall we have much
more group data (10,730 records) than average user data (111 users), so it is not surprising
that these models often performed better than the user models, particularly when noting
the differences in AUC. Again, the decision trees provide insight as to which attributes
are most helpful. In the first decision tree we found that once again men were charac-
terized by lower usage levels, used WhatsApp less for family communication, and had
shorter messages. Within the age classification task, we found that younger people sent
files less frequently than older people and were less likely to use WhatsApp for family
and work communication. While the attribute AvgMsgSent played prominently in the
classification task from the user dataset, this attribute was absent from the group dataset
because average statistics for a user are not evident from a group’s profile. Nonetheless,
the group statistics proved to be even more helpful in building age and gender models.8
We also built models that predicted group usage characteristics, the results of which
are also found in Table 4. Specifically, we built models to predict which groups will
contain file attachments in at least 1% of all messages (row 3), which participants will
have more than 25% of their messages sent between 5:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. (row
4), which messages are characteristic of groups with five or more users (row 5), which
participants will average at least a total of five messages sent or received per day (row
6),which messages will on average contain short texts with five or fewer words in at least
75% of all messages (row 7), and which participants will receive responses to at least 25%
of all messages within one minute (row 8). In general, these models were much more
successful than the baseline values, with AUC values often above 0.8. However, some
exceptions do exist. Note that predicting age based on group activity was not successful
within the decision tree model with an AUC value of below 0.5 (0.36). Nonetheless, even
here the Bayesian model was more successful, with an accuracy nearly 30% greater than
the baseline and an AUC above 0.5. The logistic regression models based on all data are
meant to provide another comparison. Notably, the confidence intervals point towards the
models here being general (i.e., even the lower bound of the AUC confidence intervals
are always above 0.7).
The thresholds used in this task were meant to be representative of groups that are
more active in the morning and have shorter messages and shorter response times. We
did in fact check other tasks, such as classifying the prediction of which messages were
8It is interesting to note that the baseline for the age group here is only 33.19% or worse than random selection.
This is because the random stratification typically chooses a different majority condition in the training and
testing cases here (e.g., a majority of records with an age under 25 in the training but a majority of cases over
25 in the testing dataset. This may explain why both the baseline and decision tree models here are relatively
poor.)
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sent later at night and in larger groups. We also created models considering different
thresholds for the group sizes and response times, as well as for other tasks. Overall, we
found that the data similarly supported prediction beyond the specific thresholds reported
in this paper. Important future work includes considering additional tasks and thresholds
beyond those considered in this paper.
Figure 7: Decision tree predicting if one quarter of the messages are
answered within one minute based on group data
Note: Here, the affecting measures are the percentage of messages of one or two words out of the total and of
three to five words out of the total.
The decision tree models also facilitated the ability to understand which attributes
were most influential in predicting the group’s behavior. For example, a simplified version
of the decision tree to predict which groups had one quarter of the messages answered
within a minute is found in Figure 7. Specifically, groups with a larger percentage of
shorter messages (1–2 words and 3–5) typically indicate quick answers. Similarly, we
were able to use decision trees to understand the models for other group behaviors. We
found that groups with more files were typically composed of younger participants (28
or younger) with advanced schooling (a master’s degree or more). Additionally, groups
with users who didn’t rate themselves with high usage levels but had high educational
levels (above 16 years) and were above 30 still typically sent more file attachments. As
one might expect, we also found that full-time students were less likely to be active in
the morning compared to those who had jobs. As Figure 2 demonstrates, we also found
that groups with five or more participants have more messages and thus typically have
messages sent with a higher frequency. We found that larger groups typically contained
shorter messages. We also found that younger people typically send shorter messages,
and while older people typically send longer messages, they do so less frequently.
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Rosenfeld et al.: WhatsApp usage patterns and prediction of demographic characteristics
7. Conclusions and future work
This work represents the first exhaustive analysis of WhatsApp messages. We collected
over 6 million encrypted messages from over 100 students between the ages of 18 to 34,
and differentiated between different types of user and group use of the network. A key
characteristic of this study is that storing encrypted messages prevented us from analyzing
any content within the messages. This was done intentionally to safeguard participants’
privacy. Despite this limitation, we found that many message and group characteristics
significantly differed across users of different demographics, such as gender and age, and
present these results through performing extensive statistical analysis. Additionally, we
believe that one key novelty of this work is that we use data analytics to predict the users’
gender, age, and group activity. Our work is data driven, so we based our findings on
the algorithms’ output. We did not attempt to verify any specific thesis, as had been
done previously. This is one key advantage of using data analytics, and this difference is
especially clear from the decision tree results presented in this paper.
Overall, our results provide several new insights into WhatsApp usage. We find that
the younger users in this dataset used this network more frequently. We also find that
more years of education and age are positive factors in predicting how frequently people
send file attachments. Overall, women use this network more often than men, and they
reported that they use it more often to both generally communicate and to communicate
with family. Men, on the other hand, are generally members of larger communication
groups and send shorter messages. Additionally, larger groups are defined not only by
their large number of users, or even the large numbers of messages that are frequently
sent, but also are typically defined as having shorter messages than those in private one-
to-one communications. Decision tree models were not only helpful in identifying these
attributes but were useful in providing the thresholds within the if–then rules for the
models that predicted these results. Because our results are built through analyzing users’
general message data, but without message content, we believe that the methodology
used in our analysis may be of general interest to other groups, such as demographers and
government bodies to facilitate data analysis without infringing on users’ privacy.
In building upon this work, we believe that two types of studies will probably lead to
fruitful results. First, we believe that additional studies should be undertaken to improve
upon and extend the study we present. While this study analyzed over 6 million messages,
it is still limited in containing only 111 users and focusing exclusively on people between
the ages of 18 and 34. Furthermore, we believe it will be helpful to study how different
demographic groups use WhatsApp. We believe that even more accurate models can be
built through studying data from more users, with a wider range of ages and different
ethnic backgrounds. Similarly, we did not study all group tasks, and other tasks – such
as which messages will be forwarded – remain unexplored. We also did not consider all
possible thresholds within the tasks studied, such as the percentage of messages answered
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Demographic Research: Volume 39, Article 22
within five minutes or 30 seconds, in contrast to the threshold of one minute presented
in this paper. In a related matter, while we intentionally built models without analyzing
user content in order to safeguard privacy, even more accurate models might be built in
the future if user consent could be obtained for this information. We are hopeful that
researchers will build upon this study and perform additional analyses both within this
dataset and other, possibly larger, WhatsApp datasets.
We believe a second type of direction should focus on applying the lessons learned
from this paper’s models. It may be wise to customize user interfaces for certain types
of users and tasks based on the attributes found to be important in this paper. For exam-
ple, users who are more educated or older might prefer a different WhatsApp interface
compared to less-educated or younger users, given that their usage patterns differ signif-
icantly. Similarly, since larger groups are characterized by shorter messages, it may be
that the interface for these types of interactions should be customized with this informa-
tion in mind as well. We hope that these and other issues will be explored in greater detail
in future work.
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