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The Automative Imagination
Sam Kinsley (Exeter)
RGS-IBG 2018, Cardiff
Citation
Please cite as:
Kinsley, Samuel (2018) “The Automative Imagination”. In New Geographies of
Automation? (1), RGS-IBG Annual International Conference 2018. Cardiff, UK. 29th
August.
This talk
1. Automative?
2. Automation
3. Progress
4. Risks
5. Geographical
Imagination
Automative Imagination
A book
Investigating how ‘automation’ is
imagined, predicted, made visible (or
not) through:
Figures
Spaces
Automation
A problem of definitions
“Something more automatic than
previously existed in that plant,
industry or location” (Bright, 1957: 6)
A problem of definitions
“automation is a technology quite
distinct from ‘mechanization’ and it is
concerned with replacing or aiding
human mental effort as distinct from
aiding man’s [sic.] physical effort”
(Thomas, 1969: 6)
Connotations
Consignment to redundancy
Freedom from drudgery
Increased productivity
…a mark of progress?
Progress
Automation anxiety
“Whatever the future holds, the present clearly
offers a resurgence of automation anxiety”
(Autor, 2015: 4)
Epoch
Epoch
The robots are coming
1986
2017
An old story
“We are being afflicted with
a new disease of which
some readers may not yet
have heard the name, but of
which they will hear a great
deal in the years to come –
namely, technological
unemployment.”
(Keynes, 1931: 325)
Jobs at risk
Following a ‘risk’
Task: Trace how the ‘fact’ of a risk of job
losses due to automation travels
through reports.
Travelling “impacts”
Please cite this paper as:
Arntz, M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn (2016), “The Risk of
Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative
Analysis”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working
Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en
OECD Social, Employment and Migration
Working Papers No. 189
The Risk of Automation for
Jobs in OECD Countries
A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory,
Ulrich Zierahn
JEL Classification: J20, J23, J24
THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW
SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO
COMPUTERISATION?∗
Carl Benedikt Frey†andMichael A. Osborne‡
September 17, 2013
.
Abstract
We exam ine how sus ceptibl e jobs are t o compute risatio n. To a s-
sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate
the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a
Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examineex-
pected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes,
with the primary objectiveof analysing the number of jobs at risk and
the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation,
wages and educational attainment. Accor ding to our estimates, about 47
percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence
that wagesand educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relation-
shipwith an occupation’s probability of computerisation.
Keywords: Occupational Choice,Technological Change, WageInequal-
ity,Employment, Skill Demand
JELClassification: E24, J24, J31, J62, O33.
∗We tha nk the Ox ford U niver sity E ngin eerin g Scie nces De part mentand the Oxford Mar-
tin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology for hostingthe“MachinesandEmploy-
ment”Workshop. We are indebted to Stuart Armstrong, Nick Bostrom, Eris Chinellato, Mark
Cummins, Daniel Dewey,David Dorn , AlexFl int, Claudia Goldin, John Muellbauer, Vincent
Mueller,Paul Newman, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Anders Sandberg,MurrayShanahan,andKeith
Woolc ock f or the ir exc elle nt su gges tion s.
†Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1PT,UnitedKingdom,
carl.frey@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk.
‡Departmentof Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX13PJ, United King-
dom,mosb@robots.ox.ac.uk.
1
“AGZ” “FO”
Travelling “impacts”
Please cite this paper as:
Arntz, M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn (2016), “The Risk of
Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative
Analysis”, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working
Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en
OECD Social, Employment and Migration
Working Papers No. 189
The Risk of Automation for
Jobs in OECD Countries
A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory,
Ulrich Zierahn
JEL Classification: J20, J23, J24
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-migration-health/the-risk-of-automation-for-jobs-in-oecd-countries_5jlz9h56dvq7-en
“AGZ”
An economic story? (ii)
It’s not ‘roles’ but ‘tasks’ that are at risk
–e.g. robotic process automation
“These studies […] they assume that whole
occupations rather than single job-tasks are
automated by technology. As we argue, this might
lead to an overestimation of job automatibility, as
occupations labelled as high-risk occupations often
still contain a substantial share of tasks that are
hard to automate.” (Arntz et al. 2016: 4)
An economic story? (ii)
It’s not ‘roles’ but ‘tasks’ that are at risk
–e.g. robotic process automation
“These studies […] they assume that whole
occupations rather than single job-tasks are
automated by technology. As we argue, this might
lead to an overestimation of job automatibility, as
occupations labelled as high-risk occupations often
still contain a substantial share of tasks that are
hard to automate.” (Arntz et al. 2016: 4)
An economic story? (ii)
It’s not ‘roles’ but ‘tasks’ that are at risk
–e.g. robotic process automation
“These studies […] they assume that whole
occupations rather than single job-tasks are
automated by technology. As we argue, this might
lead to an overestimation of job automatibility, as
occupations labelled as high-risk occupations often
still contain a substantial share of tasks that are
hard to automate.” (Arntz et al. 2016: 4)
Travelling “impacts”
THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW
SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO
COMPUTERISATION?∗
Carl Benedikt Frey†and Michael A. Osborne‡
September 17, 2013
.
Abstract
We exa mi ne ho w su sc ept ib le j obs are t o co mp ute ri sat io n. To as-
sess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate
the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a
Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine ex-
pected impacts of future computerisation on US labour m arketoutcomes,
with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and
the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation,
wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47
percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence
that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negativerelation-
ship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.
Keywords: Occupational Choice, Technological Change, WageInequal-
ity, Employment, Skill Demand
JEL Classification: E24,J24, J31, J62, O33.
∗We th ank th e Ox fo rd Un iver si ty E ng in eer ing Sc ie nc es D ep ar tment and the Oxford Mar-
tin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology for hostingthe“MachinesandEmploy-
ment” Workshop. We areindebted to Stuart Armstrong, Nick Bostrom, Eris Chine llato, Mark
Cummins, Daniel Dewey, David Dorn, Alex Flint, Claudia Goldin, John Muellbauer, Vincent
Mueller, Paul Newman, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Anders Sandberg,MurrayShanahan,andKeith
Woo lcoc k for th eir ex cel lent s ugge stio ns.
†Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1PT,UnitedKingdom,
carl.frey@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk.
‡Department of Engineering Science, Universityof Oxford ,Oxford, OX1 3PJ, United King-
dom, mosb@robots.ox.ac.uk.
1
https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
“FO”
Geographic Imagination
“Robotistan”
Copyright © 2013 HfS Research Ltd.
Insight. Advice. Benchmarking.
HfS Research
Collaborative Sourcing Intelligence
for G lobal Business & I T Services
Outsourcing Smart Governance Disruptive Technologies
The Knowledge Community
A Tour of Robotistan
Outsourcing's Cheapest Destination
25 April 2013
0355d550
https://www.horsesforsources.com/robotistan_011112
Directions
“Too often these purveyors of the future
have their backs to society, enchanted by
technological promise and blind to the
problems around them. It will require more
than robots to ensure that the future really
is different this time.”
(Wajcman, 2017: 126)
Some references
Arntz, Melanie, Gregory, Terry and Zierahn, Ulrich. (2016), "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD
Countries: A Comparative Analysis", OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No.
189, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en.
Autor David H. (2015) “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace
Automation”. Journal of Economic Perspectives 29: 3-30.
Bright, J.R. (1958) Automation and Management. Boston, MA: Harvard University Press.
Brynjolfsson, Eric and McAfee, Andrew. (2014) The Second Machine Age. New York: W. W. Norton.
Howlett, Peter and Morgan, Mary S. (2011) How Well Do Facts Travel? The Dissemination of Reliable
Knowledge. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Keynes, JM. (1931) “Economic possibilities of our grandchildren”. In: Essays in Persuasion. MacMillian,
London, pp. 321-332.
Srnicek, Nick and Williams, Alex. (2015) Inventing the Future: Postcapitalism and a World Without Work,
London: Verso.
Thomas, Horace. (1969) Automation for Management. London: Gower Press.
Wajcman, Judy. (2017) “Automation: is it really different this time?” The British Journal of Sociology 68:
119-127.
