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Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis
Abstract
Transport is an important part of society, and its future is influenced by a number of developments, such as of technology, environmental regulations and societal behaviour. This paper presents a scenario analysis from a Delphi survey focusing on future goods transport in Sweden in 2050 using experts from industry, academia and government. Our results show divergent views of the future of goods transport, with experts having widely different opinions on subjects such as consumer behaviour, which technologies will be dominant, how goods will be transported on main roads and in urban areas, and the role of policy and public investments. The experts, however, share views on the high desirability of improvements connected to sustainability. The study points to great uncertainties of future developments in goods transport, which have implications for the need for interaction and dialogue between actors in industry, academia and government and opens up for further research.
... This method explored consensus through a structured and iterative process, wherein experts provide their opinions anonymously across multiple rounds. The underlying principle of the Delphi technique is that a group of experts reaching a consensus yields more reliable outcomes than an assortment of individual opinions (Melander et al. 2019). As the method was refined throughout the latter part of the 20th century, Rowe and Wright (1999) described four key attributes of the Delphi method: anonymity of the participants, the iterative process, controlled feedback, and the statistical aggregation of group responses, evolving towards a suitable method to structure group discussion. ...
... We selected a heterogeneous group of experts for our sample (Day and Bobeva 2005), including professionals from the public sector, law enforcement, the military, technology companies, nontechnology companies, and academia, to ensure a broad range of perspectives (Melander et al. 2019;Rowe and Wright 1999). This diversity was crucial for addressing the various cybersecurity actors, as each expert's knowledge varied based on their position. ...
... We employed a classic Delphi method, consisting of two rounds. In the first round, participants assessed the 20 projections in terms of expected probability (EP), subjective desirability (D), and estimated impact (EI) in case of occurrence (see similar approaches in Beiderbeck et al. 2023;von der Gracht and Darkow 2010;Jiang et al. 2019;Melander et al. 2019). In the second round, participants had the opportunity to reassess the projections based on the distribution of responses from the first round. ...
This study explores the future of cybersecurity governance in Spain by 2035, focusing on the roles of public and private actors. Using a two‐round Delphi method, we collected insights from experts to evaluate the probability, desirability, and impact of 20 projections for Spain's cybersecurity landscape. The findings suggest a consolidation of multi‐stakeholder forms of governance, with public agencies like INCIBE and CCN guiding policy and oversight while private entities deliver essential services. Experts foresee continued collaboration between national and EU institutions, with the EU playing a key role in regulatory coordination. Three governance scenarios emerged: public‐centric cybersecurity governance, state‐driven cybersecurity assurance, and private monopolistic provision. These scenarios underscore a complex multistakeholder model shaped by collaboration and tension between public and private actors, particularly in light of fragmented ownership over cyberspace resources. This study highlights the need for adaptable governance frameworks that balance regulatory oversight with private sector efficiency, providing insights for stakeholders as they prepare for evolving cyber threats.
... Techniques used to develop projections vary in different Delphi studies. Input for projections can be provided by the research team itself (Melander et al., 2019), by experts alone (Merfeld et al., 2019;Mushonga et al., 2018;von Briel, 2018), or through a combination of both (Roßmann et al., 2018;Jiang et al., 2017;Kluge et al., 2020). We decided to combine desk research and expert interviews to improve the projection quality, as suggested by Skulmoski et al. (2007). ...
... We considered an IQR of 1 or lower to be indicative of consensus among the participants. The IQR threshold for the impact factor was calculated by multiplying the number of impact factors on the Likert scale with 0.25, as utilized and shown in previous Delphi study research (Melander et al., 2019;Roßmann et al., 2018). Therefore, using a 4-point Likert scale, 25% of 4 equals 1. ...
... Despite the thorough explanation of the phases and goals of each survey round, two participants skipped the second survey before completing it. The majority of comparable Delphi studies presented significantly less projections (Jiang et al., 2017;Kluge et al., 2020;Melander et al., 2019). Therefore, the number of projections might have been overwhelming for some participants or, alternatively, the concept of re-evaluating the same projections might not have seemed pleasing. ...
Robo advisors represent a digital financial advice solution challenging traditional wealth and asset management, investment advice, retirement planning, and tax-loss harvesting. Based on algorithms, big data analysis, machine learning, and other technologies, these services minimize the necessity for human intervention. Based on an international three-stage Delphi study, we provide a plausible forecast of the development of the robo advisor industry, with regards to market development, competition, drivers of growth, customer segments, challenges, services, technologies, and societal change. The results suggest that the financial advice market will experience a further increase in the number of robo advisor services available. Existing and traditional financial advice players will be forced to adjust to the changing environment of the market. Due to low fees and ease of use, robo advisors will be made available to a broad cross section of society, and will cause significant market losses for traditional investment advice companies. Ten years from now, the predominant investment class will remain Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Even though degrees of human intervention are expected to vary considering the complexity of advice, automation will increase in significance when it comes to the development of robo advisors.
... However, other issues, in addition to air pollution, can impact urban mobility and should be considered to collaborate with the UN 2030 agenda (Melander et al., 2019;Shiftan, Barlach and Shefer, 2015;Duarte et al., 2016;Nordfjaern et al., 2014). Therefore, the present research aims to analyze projections that impact sustainable urban mobility for the year 2030 in small and medium-sized cities that use the bus as the main modal. ...
... The keywords used in the search were: "Delphi method" and "transport"; "public transport by bus" and "sustainability", excluding duplicate articles, the search resulted in 136 articles. Among the 136 articles, one of them was chosen to form the projections for the Brazilian case, entitled: "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario", Melander et al. (2019), as the article contains a questionnaire with dimensions and projections for the formation of a scenario for sustainable urban mobility for freight transport in Sweden. Thus, the questionnaire developed by Melander et al. (2019) could be adapted to public transport without significant changes. ...
... Among the 136 articles, one of them was chosen to form the projections for the Brazilian case, entitled: "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario", Melander et al. (2019), as the article contains a questionnaire with dimensions and projections for the formation of a scenario for sustainable urban mobility for freight transport in Sweden. Thus, the questionnaire developed by Melander et al. (2019) could be adapted to public transport without significant changes. ...
Objective: The objective of the study was to analyze projections that impact sustainable urban mobility for the year 2030 in small and medium-sized cities that use the bus as the main modal. Theoretical framework: The research brings perspectives to make urban mobility in small and medium-sized Brazilian cities more sustainable. Method: The Survey method was used; data collection through a questionnaire applied to public transport specialists in Brazil. In the data analysis, the calculation of the degree of agreement of the answers was used for 13 projections, in three aspects: probability of occurrence, business impact and the desire to occur. The averages of each category were also taken, plotted on a graph with X axis (probability of occurrence) and Y axis (impact on the transport sector). Results and conclusion: The results point to an increase in the use of semi-public transport, tariff changes and greater integration between the bus and more sustainable modes such as walking and cycling. For sustainable mobility, a greater interest in sustainability, investment in infrastructure, dedicated corridors and lanes, integration between modes, use of renewable energy and implementation of subsidy can be the key to environmental solutions. Research implications: The research contributed theoretically to the literature review and managerial and political questionnaire indicating the priority points for public and private investments. Originality/value: The research points out investment points to make urban mobility more sustainable and at the same time profitable for transport companies.
... This study attempts to gather more information on the characteristics of a super smart nation through a literature review. In addition, scenario planning techniques based on the Delphi methodology [24][25][26][27][28][29][30] are used to identify the possible challenges and solutions in building a super smart nation. ...
... All mean values from the expert study with a value of five or less were deleted to measure the consensus approach. The Delphi research methodology is based on an established process [28] and comprises six stages: ...
... Delphi research methodology process. Source: The authors' work, based on the resea by Melander et al.[28]. ...
Globally, countries are increasingly facing challenges regarding their national future post the COVID-19 pandemic with respect to decreasing and aging populations; dwindling workforces; trade wars due to restricted movement of goods, people, and services; and overcoming economic development and societal problems. Accordingly, we identify the challenges and corresponding solutions that act as pillars for a framework to build a super smart nation. We analyze 73 peer-reviewed research papers from Scopus index databases and use the Delphi methodology to identify the challenges, which include people and society, robots, technology, research and innovation, digital infrastructure, data, politics, governance, and sustainability. Further, we discuss the relevant solutions, including top leadership motivation and commitment; proactive steps from the government, development of policies; legal frameworks and laws; creation of awareness programs; use of advanced technologies (such as robotics and semantic technologies); and development of interoperable infrastructure; innovation ecosystem; sustainable energy sources; and global standards for education system through transformation of the education system. These novel insights have valuable practical and theoretical implications for guiding policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers in building a super smart nation.
... Also, the road freight transport system is under transformation to become more sustainable while incorporating new technologies and facing new regulations. A multitude of actors are involved in this development from industry, government and university, providing their individual perspectives on the future development (Melander et al. 2019;Fritschy and Spinler 2019;Palm and Nikoleris 2021). ...
... The studied truck OEM is facing radical changes on the market, with the development of transport solutions based on new technologies, particularly connected EAVs, which puts emphasis on networked business models (Fritschy and Spinler 2019;Monios and Bergqvist 2020). Facing this scenario with connected EAVs implies that new business models will have to be developed and that new actors will enter the market (Melander et al. 2019;Monios and Bergqvist 2020). The recent study by Monios and Bergqvist (2020) argues that EAVs will revolutionise road freight transport and that more traditional business models based on OEMs selling trucks to operators could disappear. ...
... Also, Monios and Bergqvist (2020) identify alternative roots for future business models for truck manufacturers: One alternative is business models relying on that transport is provided on a per km or t-km basis and/or focuses on automation and electromobility, where trucks operate 24/7 and a new network operator sets up a network of battery swap stations. However, this business model requires extensive investments in charging infrastructure, an issue where there seems to be a great deal of uncertainty around which actor will make these investments (Melander et al. 2019). The 'emergent' networked business model and alternative business model by Monios and Bergqvist (2020) holds IT as the core source of value creation; here digitalisation enables dynamic decision making in real time, automated transport planning and stock replenishment. ...
Technological development is rapidly having an impact on the road freight transport system. In parallel, there are suggestions for new types of business models to approach the network and complex features of business. In this paper, we raise the question of what this means in the road freight transport business from a truck manufacturer’s perspective. The purpose is to analyse the contents of and developments in networked business models for road freight transport in Sweden with the overall aim to contribute to sustainable transport solutions. The paper builds on a qualitative case study methodology of a truck OEM. The results display three forms of networked business models: business models in stable, established and emerging networks. The stable business model is based on the present situation with the truck at the centre. The established business model is partly based on the present and partly on the future with the focus on uptime of the trucks. The emerging business model is future-oriented and contains technological development of connectivity, electrification and automation. Managerial implications regard that coping with the emerging business is necessary but result in great uncertainty regarding how to interact, which resources to invest in and how to coordinate activities.
... In the early 2020s, certain pilot projects are planned to go live in major cities such as Dubai, Singapore, or Los Angeles with initial°ying tests already completed [Altran (2020); Roland Berger (2018)]. However, many challenges still await these eager projects since the transportation sector is highly in°uenced by precise regulations on a national as well as international level, consumer behavior and technological development [Melander et al. (2018)]. An important step regarding crucial certi¯cation for VTOLs and for further regulations was made this year, approving the¯rst fully electric aircraft by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) ]. ...
... UAM will need its own air tra±c management (ATM) system including speci¯c procedures during take-o®, landing, and cruising period [Kleinbekman et al. (2020)]. However, this new or hybrid system should be working in alliance with the current ATM [Deloitte (2019); European Commission (2011)], be applicable across countries, and compatible with ongoing developments regarding relevant international standards [Airbus (2020b); EHang (2020b); Melander et al. (2018)]. For that, a conversion from current human ATC systems towards a higher level of digitalization and autonomy is required [BDLI (2017); EASA (2018)]. ...
... ;Melander et al. (2018); PorscheConsulting (2018)]. Already in 2011, the European Commission introduced a holistic vision for unmanned or autonomous vehicles for the near future in its Flight Path for 2050 towards \e±cient and seamless travel services, based on a resilient air transport system thoroughly integrated with other transport modes and well connected to the rest of the world" [BoeingNext (2018); European Commission (2011);Piwek and Wiśniowski (2016)]. ...
The growing global demand for efficient and sustainable urban mobility in metropolitan areas has created innovative approaches to new modes of transportation and vehicles. Using the Delphi method, this study explored the prospective development of urban air mobility (UAM), specifically the emergence of air taxis or vertical take-off and landing (VTOLs). The two-staged study examined 25 projections regarding technological and infrastructural aspects to propose a future scenario for UAM and air taxis for the next 5–10 years. The questioned experts confirmed most of the proposed statements from both areas but were undetermined regarding certain technological aspects. Considering the crucial impacts of regulation and certification as well as consumer perception and acceptance for UAM and air taxis, further research on these topics and their correlation is suggested.
... It is uncertain when, if ever, this DL-truck operating model is feasible. However, a recent Delphi-study with Swedish freight transport experts on average assigned a 49% chance of all trucks in Sweden being driverless by 2050 (Melander et al. 2019). ...
... One important aspect of this study is the temporal generalizability of the results. A large-scale introduction of DLtrucks will happen at a future, yet unknown, point in time and will therefore take place in a freight transport system which will have been influenced by a wide range of other technological, policy , and societal factors for which there is significant uncertainty (Melander et al. 2019;Pernestål et al. 2020). The findings in this paper reflect how DLtrucks could impact the current freight transport. ...
... Since a widespread DL-truck adoption lay at some uncertain point of time in an uncertain landscape of freight transport system and society (Melander et al. 2019;Pernestål et al. 2020), the impacts of DL-trucks need to be studied in various future scenarios (i.e. compared to other baselines). Key issues include: ...
... The primary concern is how the emergence of this technology will alter existing business models and the implications this will have for the future roles of current stakeholders, particularly vehicle manufacturers, lessors, and ground handlers. While existing actors may continue to play a role in the evolving business landscape, there is potential for external companies and new actors to enter and disrupt the market [20], [34]. These new business models might involve either the inclusion or exclusion of new and existing stakeholders in the ownership of autonomous vehicles [8]. ...
... The existing actor such as manufacturer or perhaps ground handlers may emerge as the network operators role as they have experience in the field, however new resources and investment may be required. Building expertise and collaborations with actors specialized in IT systems domains is crucial in order to maneuver the network in relation to the future [34]. Companies are interested in developing the disruptive potential of EAVs operation software may have the chance to enter into new market proposition as network operators [57]. ...
The adoption of electric autonomous vehicles (EAVs) is set to revolutionize airport ground operations. Airports are increasingly developing new autonomous innovation strategies to meet sustainability goals and address future challenges, such as shifting labor markets, evolving working conditions, and the growing impact of digitalization. The traditional business model, in which manufacturers sell vehicles to operators (ground handlers), may no longer be relevant. The increasing complexity and advancement of EAVs will drive up costs, making the ownership model less appealing and shifting the focus from product-oriented to service-oriented models. This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework for potential business models for the implementation of EAVs in airport airside operations.
... In order to safeguard against the influence of erroneous data, the survey utilized cut-off and independent parameters (Kauko & Palmroos, 2014). The primary objective is not to reduce the number of responses but rather to limit the number of pools from which experts are drawn to participate in a survey (Manias-Muñoz et al., 2019;Melander et al., 2019). Although no specific agreement on the optimal number of steps of the Delphi method can be found (Hasson et al., 2000), recent academic studies have predominantly utilized two or three pools (Diamond et al., 2014). ...
... To guarantee that all codes are evaluated consistently, researchers have employed sub-codes. To further protect experts' confidentiality and privacy, they were all allocated a code (Manias-Muñoz et al., 2019;Melander et al., 2019;Turoff & Linstone, 2002). In the context of content analysis, qualitative analysis software Nvivo-12 was utilized. ...
This study aims to investigate the opportunities and difficulties presented by the COVID-19 pandemic to supply chain sustainability. This study identifies the major constructs that are crucial to the supply chain sustainability, which have not gotten sufficient attention in the literature. Therefore, we conducted a three-phase e-Delphi study using qualitative and quantitative techniques. Responses were gathered from 15 worldwide supply chain and sustainability experts, who initially identified 43 obstacles and 24 opportunities. Following the completion of the three phases of the e-Delphi process, a total of 13 vital constructs related to supply chain sustainability were identified. The current endeavor aims to close knowledge gaps related to the difficulties and opportunities produced by the Coronavirus outbreak throughout the whole supply chain, particularly when a comprehensive assessment is necessary. The results of this study will help inspire and motivate future studies in the same area.
... Rights reserved. (Melander et al. 2019), there is no optimal number of iterations in this method. It is usually recommended to limit the iterations to two or three phases with the purpose of avoiding reduced participation of experts (Shoukohyar & Seddigh. ...
... The questionnaire is comprised of the findings from the literature with an open-ended question for proposing other probable factors. The survey is conducted through sending e-mails to the panels with the purpose of accelerating the process (Shoukohyar & Seddigh, 2020;Gnatzy et al., 2011;Melander et al., 2019;Belton et al, 2019). Each respondent is asked to provide their answers within 2 weeks. ...
The knowledge sharing creates a collaborative environment which contributes to creation of flexibility and meeting demands in supply chain. It guarantees the access of members to external knowledge and overall supply chain improvement in competitive environment. The steel industry as the second “key” and “strategic” industry after oil and petrochemical industry in Iran as one of the important countries in middle-east and due to its importance for development but also due to the characteristics of its cost accounting system is selected as case study. Regarding to, this study aimed to design a comprehensive list containing all knowledge sharing (KS) motivational factors for steel industries supply chain. Thus, a mixed method of qualitative (a three-phase Delphi method) and quantitative (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-DEMATEL) has been adopted. At first stage, the 33 motivational factors of KS were identified through literature review. Then using Delphi method, respondents were provided with the findings from the literature to shortlist and merge the factors based on steel industry supply chain features. Due to different theoretical and practical standpoints of views about KS motivators in steel industry supply chain, 30 respondents (experts) participated. The final factors extracted via Delphi method was 15. Then, DEMATEL method was used to find interdependence among factors. At the end, cost accounting system for each factor were asked from knowledge management departments in steel supply chain. The results indicated that majority of the costs in steel industry supply chain is spent in decreasing power and sense of ownership of knowledge, improving culture and expectations, and improving personal contact and interaction, team culture, rewards, strategic thinking, and individual management of time, respectively. Whereas, the results of DEMATEL technique indicated that team culture, power, and sense of ownership of knowledge; personal contact and interaction; trust; culture; and expectations are the 5th high ranking factors. Although there are plenty of techniques used for improving team culture such as community of practice, after action review, Knowledge caf’e, it is not so dominant in cost accounting system. Hopefully, departments consider power and sense of ownership of knowledge more carefully. Managers in steel supply chain pay more attention to cultural issues by having educational courses. Strategic thinking is not among the highest-ranking factors, but there are costs spent for it in steel supply chain which should be pondered upon it.
... Feedback from the experts was recorded through a three-phase study. It seemed essential to limit the number of surveys as to many phases could decrease the likelihood of the experts' engagement and would subsequently reduce the response rate (Munoz et al., 2019;Melander et al., 2019;Jesus et al., 2019). We tried to talk to experts by face-to-face manner. ...
... Sub-codes also were used to ensure that all codes are assessed thoroughly. Moreover, according to the recommendation of Munoz et al. (2019), we gave each expert a particular number-code to protect their personal information and avoid emerging their identities (Melander et al., 2019). ...
Purpose: This study aims to identify the major underlying problems associated with pharmaceutical supply chains
(PSC), and the mechanisms through which these issues are happening and propose the main solutions to them.
This research also assesses the value of the data extracted from social media.
Methodology: This study extracted data from Twitter and combines the power of an effective software (Python)
with expert analysis (Delphi study in three rounds) to identify the key issues in pharmaceutical industry that have
been neglected by decision makers. Furthermore, combination of the two powerful tools (Python and Delphi) is
another merit of this work since it is a sophisticated method.
Findings: This research has recognized that there are four major key problems that are highly critical and need
urgent attention and proposes the key resolutions to these issues. The expert panel believed that the results from
Twitter data are very helpful and gives decision makers new insight into pharmaceutical supply chain.
Originality: Several items gathered this study make it unique. First, by using social media, this paper has
discovered the underlying problems of PSC that are not usually detected by PSC management systems or are
being neglected by them. Second, through a Delphi study, this research discovered the patterns of these issues
and mechanisms by which they are formed and also provided new effective solutions. Many other papers have
just stated that social media is useful for supply chains, but the vast majority of them did not actually conduct an
in-depth analysis on social media to discover problems in pharmaceutical supply chain, and very few studies
explored the mechanisms by which those problems were formed.
... One could also apply the scenario approach (Michelmann et al. 2019, which can also be combined with the Delphi technique. An overview of transport related Delphi studies with a focus on scenario development is provided by Melander et al. (2018). ...
... The dropout rate of 12% in the second round was probably due to the holiday season with Christmas and New Year's Eve at the time of the survey. Due to self-interests of experts leading into possible desirability biases, the expert panel composition of this Delphi study needs to be assessed critically (Ecken et al. 2011, Melander et al. 2018. Looking at the segmentation of participants, one can see that 42% of experts come from academia, thus exceeding other segments. ...
Door-to-door (D2D) air travel is gaining momentum for airlines, airports, and feeder traffic providers. The mobility industry and researchers are broadening their scope to include the entire travel chain, from origin to final destination. Intermodal mobility products are already on the market. At the same time, widespread trends affect transport service providers (as the suppliers) and passengers (regarding demand). Acquiring a better understanding of future D2D air travel trends is crucial for the mobility sector for long-term planning, product adaptation, the services provided and the pricing of these, and improvements in the passenger experience. Focusing on the European market, the overall objective of this doctoral thesis is to identify and understand the future trends of D2D air travel. It is divided into three parts; these provide different perspectives on trends and employ a range of methods that lead to results that develop from each other. In Part One, the Delphi technique is utilized to identify future travel trends. The study considers projections of European air passengers and their requirements for their entire air travel chain, including airport access, a long-haul flight, and airport egress. The research focuses on 2035 and is based on a two-round Delphi survey involving 38 experts from the transport industry, academia, and consultants. The Delphi survey is supplemented with findings from a preliminary study, consisting of a literature review, interviews with 18 experts in the field of air travel, and a workshop attended by experts. Results reveal that digitalization and personalization will be the main drivers in 2035 and that passengers might demand value-added use of their travel time. In addition, environmentally friendly travel products are considered desirable but only somewhat probable by 2035. Passenger type, age, origins, and travel budget will still be influential factors in 2035. Based on the results from a hierarchical cluster analysis, Part One presents three possible future scenarios: (1) personalized D2D travel, (2) integrated D2D travel, and (3) the game-changer. A technical chapter elaborates on the Delphi technique and individual research steps. Part Two explores the supply aspect and to what extent transport service providers consider strategically relevant trends. The scope of D2D air travel is adapted by applying multi-labeled text classification models to 52 corporate reports from a sample of transport service providers that operate in the European market. Trends identified in the first Delphi study and from an additional literature review are used to develop seven classes. Two prototype models are developed: a dictionary-based classifier and a supervised learning model using the multinomial naive Bayes and linear support vector machine classifiers. The latter yields the best model output, revealing which trends have a higher, medium, or lower relevance on the supply side. The results show that providers consider environmentally friendly air transport and related products to be highly relevant while disruption management, leveraging passengers' data, and improving airport feeder traffic through innovative mobility initiatives are considered to be of medium relevance. Part Three explores air passengers' preferences and willingness to pay for ancillary services in the current transition into the new normal, brought about by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, high uncertainty, and changing market dynamics. A choice-based conjoint analysis is used to test six attributes within a hypothetical travel scenario for a long-haul one-way air trip. Choice data from 269 German business and leisure passengers are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayes estimator. Results reveal that the total ancillary service upgrade price influences passengers' choices the most, followed by a seat upgrade for greater comfort and the CO 2-compensation of a flight. Hygiene-related ancillar-ies bring low utilities. Female and senior passengers care more for environmentally friendly ancillaries. Confirming previous research, business passengers and frequent flyers care more for onboard comfort.
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... Jamshidi et al. [7] assessed the efficiency and ranked the criteria that influenced passenger satisfaction through the use of the two-stage Delphi method in the road transport industry. A Delphi survey involving experts from academia, industry, and government revealed a diversified and multifaceted vision of future developments in Sweden for the year 2050 in regard to goods transport [8]. Diaz [9] improved the infrastructure and logistics service quality of road and port transport for the development of the export of goods using a micro-fixed-effects method for the period of 2012-2018 . ...
... The FAHP methodology required expert relies on Saaty's linguistic nine-point scale and the evaluation of a pair-wise comparison matrix for each category. In the pair-wise comparison method, each criterion is compared to all other criteria using Equation (8). ...
The quality of the public transport sector affects the economy and the daily livelihoods of passengers. One of the most important objectives of policymakers is to choose the influencing criteria for performance evaluations. A variety of factors are crucial for raising the standards of public transportation services. In this investigation, we used a decision-based model with uncertainty in order to identify significant criteria in the public transport sector. We also performed a comparative analysis to rank the Rajasthan State Road Transport Corporation (RSRTC) bus depots based on their performance using hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques such as TOPSIS, VIKOR, and ELECTRE. To handle judgement ambiguities, in this work we incorporated the Delphi method (DM) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), along with fuzzy set theory. The fuzzy Delphi method was used to filter the important criteria. Using a fuzzy AHP approach, the screening criterion weights and rankings were determined. Furthermore, the bus depots were ranked using TOPSIS, VIKOR, and ELECTRE. Our findings can be applied in assisting policy-managers in formulating appropriate policies targeted at improving the overall health and competitiveness of bus depots using significant criteria and associated key indicators. In this study we investigated performance measures and proposed recommendations for the sustainable development of transportation in India.
... Individual responses gathered during stage 1 were analyzed. Each expert was assigned a numerical code instead of their name to prevent their identity from being revealed (Melander et al. 2019). After sorting and categorizing the deficiencies identified in the second stage, the experts were tasked with associating them with the stages that were most likely to have caused them. ...
... Delphi and prioritizing choices. Numerous stages may deter experts from participating in the research(Melander et al. 2019) ...
Smartphones are one of the most widely used electronic devices. Their supply chain can play an essential role in enhancing their quality and associated services. Numerous studies have been conducted in recent years on supply chain waste and how to manage it to improve product quality. Discussing this issue can help solve supply chain deficiencies and improve its performance, increasing production efficiency and customer satisfaction. This study examines the issue using two valid methods. Initially, text mining on Twitter was used to extract hashtags for Apple smartphones. Then, sentiment analysis was used to distinguish between complaints and negative tweets about services or device performance. Afterward, the most frequently occurring deficiencies (23 deficiencies) that resulted in dissatisfaction were identified. Eventually, 14 deficiencies were selected after consulting with experts. These cases were attributed to various supply chain steps using the Delphi method and Apple's reports. Finally, the highest degree of agreement between the cases and supply chain steps was determined through the Delphi process, consultation with experts, and statistical methods.
... MELANDER et al., 2019;GRIJALVA; LOPEZ MARTINEZ, 2019;FRANZITTA et al., 2017). P2 -Os veículos de transporte público urbano irão em sua maioria utilizar combustíveis de fontes renováveis nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte.Projeções -Dimensão: Política e investimentos públicosReferências da dimensão e das projeções P3 -As políticas públicas em transporte por ônibus terão maior prioridade aos investimentos em outros setores nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte.(MELANDER ...
... o urbano irão em sua maioria utilizar combustíveis de fontes renováveis nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte.Projeções -Dimensão: Política e investimentos públicosReferências da dimensão e das projeções P3 -As políticas públicas em transporte por ônibus terão maior prioridade aos investimentos em outros setores nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte.(MELANDER et al.,2019;LING et al., 2019 ; WONG ; HENSHER, 2018;LJUNGBERG, 2016;CHRISTIANSEN, 2018). P4 -O transporte público por ônibus receberá subsídio do governo. Fonte: produzido pelas autoras. ...
... MELANDER et al., 2019;GRIJALVA; LOPEZ MARTINEZ, 2019;FRANZITTA et al., 2017). P2 -Os veículos de transporte público urbano irão em sua maioria utilizar combustíveis de fontes renováveis nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte.Projeções -Dimensão: Política e investimentos públicosReferências da dimensão e das projeções P3 -As políticas públicas em transporte por ônibus terão maior prioridade aos investimentos em outros setores nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte.(MELANDER ...
... o urbano irão em sua maioria utilizar combustíveis de fontes renováveis nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte.Projeções -Dimensão: Política e investimentos públicosReferências da dimensão e das projeções P3 -As políticas públicas em transporte por ônibus terão maior prioridade aos investimentos em outros setores nas cidades de pequeno e médio porte.(MELANDER et al.,2019;LING et al., 2019 ; WONG ; HENSHER, 2018;LJUNGBERG, 2016;CHRISTIANSEN, 2018). P4 -O transporte público por ônibus receberá subsídio do governo. Fonte: produzido pelas autoras. ...
... Afterward, an anonymous expert workshop was conducted [117], [124]. Similar to the interviews, the focus was on gaining multifaceted insights and a heterogeneous panel of experts (see Table IX in the Appendix). ...
... A total of 71 experts participated in the first survey round, and 51 finalized the second survey round, resulting in an overall response rate of 3.3%. This final number of participants was found to be appropriate for several reasons: the number corresponds with the requirements for a reliable methodological approach [206], [211]; large expert panels increase the probability of variation in responses, which reduces the degree of accuracy and the degree of generalizability [207]; the smaller number of experts prevents information overload or disengagement [211]; the heterogeneity and diversity of the panel are more important than the number of experts [212]; this number of experts is equal to that in comparable Delphi studies (e.g., [117], [124]). ...
Maritime container shipping (MCS) firms represent the backbone of worldwide supply chains. Due to the emergence of global trends and disruptions, MCS firms increasingly face an uncertain environment. Consequently, MCS firms must develop dynamic capabilities to enable the reconfiguration of organizational resources for building resilience in a constantly changing business ecosystem. To create adequate dynamic capabilities, MCS firms need to anticipate the future of their macro environment through advanced foresight techniques. Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis, this study systematically examines scenarios for MCS firms’ macro environment. Twelve projections for the MCS industry were systematically created and were then assessed by 51 maritime experts. The resulting three distinct scenarios deliver valuable insights for MCS firms’ executives, whereas the blockchains and drones technology will have already increased efficiency in the short-term scenario “picking the low-hanging fruit,” other technological disruptions will only affect the industry in the medium-term scenario “experiencing an era of dichotomy.” In the long-term scenario “overcoming the obstacles of the generational shift,” MCS firms will experience a transfer toward alternative fuel powered and autonomously driven vessels. Offering detailed scenarios for the future MCS macro environment, this study represents a guide for decision-makers on how to create dynamic capabilities in MCS firms to build resilience. Moreover, the results revealed differences in the experts’ assessments due to their characteristics. Therefore, the study contributes to the academic focus on in-depth diversity analysis in the Delphi methodology and emphasizes the relevance of incorporating multiple stakeholders and panelists in future planning.
... This strategy may be customised depending on the case and the scenario ( Gnatzy et al., 2011 ). On this basis, there is no one-size-fits-all approach and no optimal number of iterations for implementation ( Shahrasbi and Shokouhyar, 2021 ;Shoukohyar and Seddigh, 2020 ;Melander et al., 2019 ). ...
... It is typically suggested to restrict iterations to two or three phases to avoid a reduction in experts' participation ( Shoukohyar and Seddigh, 2020 ;Melander et al., 2019 ). Therefore, a three-phased survey with 25 prominent experts from various developing and developed countries is used in this study ( Appendix 3 and 4) ( Shahrasbi and Shokouhyar, 2021 ). ...
The management and control of waste electrical and electronic equipment have been among the most critical challenges in recent decades. However, the existing electrical and electronic equipment consumption patterns lead to negative consequences for the environment and social and economic aspects. On the other hand, social media has demonstrated itself as an important data source to extract large amounts of information from consumers’ opinions. Therefore, an integrated approach of quantitative and qualitative methods (based on Twitter data and analysis of the literature followed by the Delphi method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process is adopted to analyze consumers’ participation in electronic waste recycling schemes, from the standpoint of sustainable development, in developed and developing countries. Considering the three pillars of “sustainable development”, the findings reveal that in developing countries, the “economic” pillar is of the highest, and the “environmental” aspect is of the least importance, and the “social” is somewhere in between. However, in developed countries, due to higher welfare, the priorities of the dimensions above are different wherein the “environmental” and the “social” pillars are of the higher importance, and the “economic” comes last. Therefore, governments and high-level policy-makers could apply the research findings to develop long-term strategies.
... What constitutes an organization's far future timeframe depends heavily on context and environmental turbulence (Masini, 1993;Pillkahn, 2008): In education, it is usually set to more than 10 years, because that is the time needed to train a new teacher generation and to implement new teaching methods and technologies (Selwyn et al., 2020). Studies of slower changing sectors such as transportation and mobility (Soria-Lara and Banister, 2017;Melander et al., 2019) or about gradual developments such as climate change (Merrie et al., 2018) or emerging technology adaptation (Wolf et al., 2022) instead use a 20-30-year time frame. ...
... Scenarios enable planners to recognize the factors that may influence potential futures, make decisions today, and adjust to future changes to minimize negative effects and seize opportunities (Lindgren and Bandhold, 2009). Numerous studies in the transportation literature have made use of the scenario planning approach (e.g., Melander et al. (2019), Pernestål et al. (2021), Milakis et al. (2017)). ...
... The Delphi study is used extensively in information management, decision science, risk analysis, supply chain management, and related fields to identify, assess and prioritize factors (Akkermans et al., 2003;Chen et al., 2020;Flostrand et al., 2020;Jäger & Piscicelli, 2021;Lummus et al., 2005;Soisontes, 2017). In addition, this method is often used to make forecasts (Culot et al., 2020;Jiang et al., 2017;Kluge, et al., 2020;Markmann et al., 2013;Melander et al., 2019;Peppel, et al., 2022;Roßmann et al., 2018). In the field of agricultural science, Veahthier and Windhorst (2011) applied the Delphi method to forecast future poultry production and its affecting factors. ...
The use of imported soybean/soybean meal is criticized in the context of the sustainability discussion in Germany. Imported soybean is often associated with deforestation and genetic modification, which is largely viewed critically by consumers. This study aims to forecast changes in future demand for imported soybean/soybean meal and its possible substitutes in the German livestock industry. The two-round Delphi method was used in the study by sending questionnaires to 28 experts from four groups: food retailers, livestock associations, animal nutrition manufacturers and research institutes. Our main result is that the total use of soybeans in German livestock farming will decrease from almost 4 million tons of soybean equivalents in 2018/19 to approximately 3.4 million tons by 2030/31. In contrast, the share of non-GM soybean is forecast to increase from 26 to 53%. Factors that influence the increased use of non-GM protein feeds most are “specifications from downstream processors” and “demand from the feed industry.” Experts forecast that about 36% of imported soybean/soybean meal (from non-EU countries) for German livestock farming could be replaced by protein feed produced in the EU. Rapeseed was considered to have a particularly high potential for production in the EU, followed by soybean and sunflower. Experts considered the factors: “requirements by the food retailers,” “reasonable price,” “political regulation” and “better profitability for the producer” as the most influential for extended use of regional protein feeds.
... For example, Kattirtz and Winskel, (2020) analysed the future of heating in buildings and the future of personal transport in a time horizon of 20 years (2040). Other scholars' contributions provided a contribution with 30-year time horizon scenarios (Melander et al. 2019), to understand the transport systems in Sweden and derive the future output of 2050. In conclusion, Ribeiro et al. (2021), proposed a different approach to evaluate the viability of a wave energy farm focusing on the exploitation of the present, the near future, and the far future. ...
In the Future Studies context, the scenario development process is an established method for the identification of future projections, useful to avoid future threats and take different actions in the present. The development of future scenarios is often combined with different participatory approaches, one among many is the Delphi method, widely adopted for its systematic and interactive nature. In this context, the recent climate challenges lead society to an exponential growth of uncertainty about the future where Delphi-based scenarios (DBS) could be helpful to identify interesting mid and long-term projections. For the purpose of conducting a systematic review of Delphi-based future scenarios applied to climate change context, we used a quantitative bibliometric analysis aimed at investigating the scientific literature path, implementing it with a multiple correspondence analysis and a semantic network analysis. We illustrate the results of the case studies focusing on the combination of methods, rounds of the process, panellists‘ sampling, time horizon, and techniques used, to establish new guidelines for future Delphi-based climate research projects.
... The following subsections discuss the research sampling procedure, company characteristics, interview and set criteria and data analysis. In line with Roeck et al. (2020) and Melander et al. (2019), a purposeful sampling approach was used in this study, which entails selecting only subjects who can transmit essential information as interviewees; besides, this approach is more effective the smaller the number of interviews that can be conducted in the study, and this can be the case of the shipbuilding sector. As a result, inclusion criteria for companies' selection have been identified (Roeck et al., 2020): ...
Supply chain digitalisation plays a critical role for companies operating in engineering-to-order industries, striving to increase their competitiveness and profitability. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies in the shipbuilding sector and how they affect the supply chain resilience capabilities drawing on the resource-based view theory and dynamic capabilities. A multiple case study was conducted, and eleven Italian companies belonging to different levels of the shipbuilding supply chain were interviewed. The results show that the main interest reserved for integrating resilience capabilities and innovative technologies is to enhance market position, knowledge and information sharing, and supply chain design and integration. Finally, this contribution can support companies, policymakers, and researchers in identifying and implementing specific digitisation pathways for shipbuilding companies. In addition, this contribution can support the identification of policy measures for the industry with a focus on digitisation and collaboration with universities and research centres, that are crucial aspects for engineering to order industries, including shipbuilding.
... The Delphi study took place as an online survey using a two-step process, as in numerous prior Delphi studies [see 20,39,52]. This is based on the fact that more than two rounds of interviews do little to improve the quality of the outcome and that most adjustments occur after the first iteration [91,100]. ...
The logistics industry is facing a transformation. Automated driving has been gaining importance in the commercial vehicle industry and trucks with SAE L4 are expected by 2030 for the hub-to-hub scenario. Driven by the research question of what the direct logistics environment of automated trucks will look like in 2030 a two-round Delphi-based scenario study was conducted for domestic goods transport in Germany. 19 projections were developed and evaluated by 27 experts from different industries. With complete-linkage clustering, four logistics scenarios for 2030 were created. The results show that environmental and social sustainability as well as digitalization are expected to be the most important drivers. These include the shift to electric drive systems, improved working conditions, and increasing transparency and connectivity of the supply chain. The experts forecast an increase in the importance of software services and a continuing shortage of skilled workers. Rather controversial are the topics of charging infrastructure for electrified transport and the degree of automation of loading systems. Overall, the results provide a reliable basis for strategic decision-making in order to ensure the introduction of automated trucks into the logistics of the future and their surrounding environment.
... Feedback from the experts was recorded through a three-phase study. It seemed essential to limit the number of surveys as to many phases could decrease the likely of the experts' engagement and would subsequently reduce the response rate (Munoz et al., 2019;Melander et al., 2019;Jesus et al., 2019). We tried to talk to experts by face-to-face manner. ...
... Feedback from the experts was recorded through a three-phase study. It seemed essential to limit the number of surveys as to many phases could decrease the likely of the experts' engagement and would subsequently reduce the response rate (Munoz et al., 2019;Melander et al., 2019;Jesus et al., 2019). We tried to talk to experts by face-to-face manner. ...
This research aims to explore the challenges and opportunities associated with the deployment of social media to improve supply chain sustainability. This exploratory research can lead to deeper insights regarding the opportunities as well as problems experienced due to the use of social media in supply chains. The study selected a three-phase Delphi study approach with both qualitative and quantitative analyses. This study recorded feedback from 34 experts with sufficient knowledge of information technology and sustainable pharmaceutical supply chain. 48 independent constructs separately in enterprise and public media were extracted. All the constructs were ranked, ultimately leading to 10 major constructs which played a significantly crucial role in the sustainability of supply chains. While social media challenges and opportunities in supply chain sustainability are discussed in this article, further studies on social and environmental sustainability and providing operational solutions to these challenges are still needed. No paper has directly extracted the impacts of social media specifically on enterprise and public media individually. While most papers mainly focused on economic and environmental sustainability, this paper pays close attention to sustainability and social media.
... It consists of several rounds in which experts express their views anonymously. We chose this method based on previous literature claims that the consensus opinion of a high-level selection of key experts can provide more reliable conclusions than a collection of individual opinions [31]. ...
This paper empirically explores the contribution and collaborative networks of public and private actors to cybersecurity provision in Spain. The article draws on data from three sources: policy and legal documents, a Delphi study with cybersecurity experts, and 34 interviews. Rooted in the theoretical underpinnings of nodal governance and anchored pluralism, the paper argues that the position of actors and public-private collaboration dynamics involved in cybersecurity governance can be understood through the analysis of capital exchange. Therefore, the study provides a list of the most relevant nodes for cybersecurity in Spain, assesses the capital they possess and how they exchange it through collaborative networks and explores the characteristics and barriers of these collaborative relationships. Analyses reveal that public organisations hold a preeminent position in cybersecurity governance despite large technology corporations’ greater economic and cultural capital. Remarkably, the paper identifies the central position of new public bodies in the network of cybersecurity nodes. Moreover, cultural barriers that are hindering public-private collaboration in Spain are identified. These results indicate that, despite the state’s difficulties in providing public solutions to cybersecurity challenges, Spain is an example of how governance can be anchored in public bodies through symbolic and social capital.
... Numerous studies (Woudenberg, 1991) have found that three rounds or more might not increase the quality of the findings, but also increased the risk of panelist dropout (Fritschy and Spinler, 2019;Kluge et al., 2020). There is no optimal number of survey rounds in Delphi research, however, in the Delphi-based scenario studies, two rounds were found most commonly applied (Höjer, 1998;Mason and Alamdari, 2007;Piecyk and McKinnon, 2010;Melander et al., 2019). ...
Spurred by the emerging blockchain technology and increased interest in tokenization, this forecasting research built on extensive literature and aggregated expertise to explore the potential implementation of blockchain-enabled tokenization in infrastructure investment and development. The Delphi-based scenario analysis approach was applied to gather long-term forecasts and assessments of a research panel consisting of 39 experts in blockchain tokenization and infrastructure development on how tokenization will influence the future of infrastructure finance and identify scenarios of potential applications and impact. International experts were segregated into two groups salient to this topical area based on both experience ad self-identification: infrastructure development and blockchain tokenization. Twenty-three projections for 2035, developed from a literature review, case study analysis, and expert interviews, concerning perspectives of both the supply and demand side for the adoption of blockchain tokenization, were assessed in a two-round Delphi analysis. Regulatory, economic, social, and technological perspectives of tokenization were taken into consideration. Assessments were based on both probability and impact of occurrence. Three groups of scenarios resulted from quantitative and qualitative analysis, reflecting agreement and differentiation between both expert groups. The results of this study clearly underlined the potential of tokenization in infrastructure. Uncertainties and barriers confronting the technologies' diffusion were discussed. This study contributes to the transfer of general technical-driven blockchain-enabled tokenization knowledge to infrastructure-specific tokenization knowledge. Long-term strategic planning is supported by this study with the scenario data acting as a starting point for blockchain-related efforts in infrastructure development.
... The increased use has led also to adaptations and modifications in the approach, concerning both the goals and the concrete applications of the method. First, there is not a single purpose for the use of the Delphi; indeed, although it has been mainly employed as a forecasting technique, with experts asked to express their informed opinion or estimates (Turoff and Linstone, 1975) relating to future events and trends, the Delphi has also been applied to support decision making (Hasson et al., 2000) and to develop scenarios (Melander et al., 2019;von der Gracht, 2012). More important, the goal of the Delphi is not necessarily about achieving consensus among experts but also to gain informed knowledge (Gupta and Clarke, 1996) or controversial views, as in the Policy Delphi (Turoff, 2002). ...
The Mediterranean region is widely acknowledged as one of the most exposed in the world to the effects of climate change, water scarcity, biodiversity loss and land degradation, coupled with a nutrition transition of its populations. In such a context, to explore the evolution of the region is of both political and theoretical interest. This study presents the result of a scenario-building exercise, based on a Delphi method – an interactive forecasting technique – relying upon about 60 practitioners, experts and academics representing 19 Mediterranean countries and a wide range of disciplines and expertise. The present article has three main purposes. First, to identify the main challenges, trends and driving forces that influence the agri-food systems in the Mediterranean over a short (2020) and medium (2030) term. Second, to discuss the alternative policy responses to the challenges that the region will face in terms of water resource management, farming systems and agri-food value chains in terms of desirability and feasibility. Thirdly, to provide informed, evidence-based recommendations that might help different stakeholders to take action in the region’s agri-food sector. Based on this Delphi’s results, the study suggests that the gap between the countries in the South and the North of the Mediterranean in terms of challenges posed in water management, farming systems and the agri-food value chain is expected to grow. Experts agree that climate change is going to play a key role in the future of both sides of the Mediterranean, but with a differential impact in the sub-two regions. Nutrition-related challenges will exert a growing pressure especially in the Southern Mediterranean countries. A set of desirable and feasible policy option for addressing the Mediterranean food-related challenges are discussed.
... Alternatives to EFVs mentioned included fuels such as hydrogen gas, biogas and HVO. Similar to previous studies, our findings point to uncertainties regarding the use of EFVs and possible governmental investment in charging infrastructure (Melander et al., 2019;Monios & Bergqvist, 2020). These, in addition to other uncertainties, such as which sustainable transport Uncertainty about which sustainable solution will be preferred and supported by politicians in the future solution will be preferred in the future, act as deterrents for our studied firms, making investments in EFVs uncertain. ...
Freight transport in urban areas needs to become more sustainable. There is much potential to reduce emissions by transitioning to electric freight vehicles (EFVs). The context of this study is Sweden, a country with ambitious goals for transitioning to fossil-free road transport that incentivizes the adoption of EFVs through regulations, subsidies and environmental zones. However, it seems that few companies are adopting EFVs. This paper aims to explore why that is by investigating drivers for and barriers to the adoption of EFVs. An embedded case study of five firms in Stockholm that are exploring the possibilities of using EFVs is conducted. The findings reveal a number of drivers and barriers, which are then categorized as internal, external or governmental. The results show uncertainties at the micro, meso and macro levels. Uncertainties relate to political and legal uncertainties, technological and infrastructure-related uncertainties, customer expectations and willingness to pay, and operational uncertainties.
... Hence, finding more sustainable urban transport solutions engages many stakeholders, including governments, industries, organizations, and individuals. However, there are still many uncertainties over future technological developments and regulations and which new urban transport solutions will reach scale (Fritschy & Spinler, 2019;Melander, Dubois, Hedvall, & Lind, 2019;Monios & Bergqvist, 2020). Hence, there is a need to synthesize extant literature on sustainable business models for providing urban transport services. ...
It is believed that a transition toward more sustainable transport will be a cornerstone of plans to reduce global emissions. Two services that show great potential to improve the sustainability of urban transport are Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) and Urban Consolidation Centers (UCC): MaaS is focused on the transport of people and UCC on freight transport. MaaS and UCC both involve a network of actors, present a clear vision for sustainability, can be applied in urban contexts, use new technologies, and are nascent transport solutions that are yet to be fully established and see large-scale implementation as transport services in urban areas. Despite showing significant potential, there are still some questions over how sustainable these transport services actually are. In this paper, we systematically review literature on MaaS and UCC; we analyze 137 papers to compare the environmental, social, and economic sustainability of these two urban transport services. In the review, these new transport services promise to deliver both social and environmental sustainability, but these promises have yet to be fulfilled. Several studies point to problems related to social and environmental sustainability. Similarly, the economic viability of these business models is yet to be proven. Future research topics are suggested.
... The Delphi Method has been applied in multiple studies related to technological forecasting. One of the most recent applications of the Delphi Method with regards to the future of transportation was carried out by Melander et al. (2019). Forty experts participated in investigating the probability, desirability, and impact of different projections in 6 key transportation areas. ...
The transportation industry is in the midst of a revolution with technologies, such as shared vehicles, drones, and autonomous vehicles, that are poised to reshape the way we move. Yet, the multitude of technologies present a difficulty in prioritizing which technologies should be invested in. While focusing on Klang Valley's transportation system, this research proposes the REsilience Brittleness and Emerging Technologies (REBET) framework , which aims to identify the transportation technologies with the highest potential of strengthening the system's resilience. We used a Dephi technique to identify the Sources of Brittleness (SBs) in the system and technologies with the highest relevance to the Malaysian setting. Using multiple linear regression, we then derived a relationship between the two aspects. The framework defines the relative resilience of the technologies according to their forecasted ability to eliminate system brittleness. The results ranked 23 technologies, with the topmost recommendations being ITS, Big Data, and Smart Buses. We highlight REBET's robustness as a global decision-making tool for infrastructure managers, researchers, and policymakers to identify ideal technologies for their transportation systems.
... Delphi projections can be developed by the research team alone (Nowack et al., 2011), by external experts (Martino, 1993), or both groups in a collaborative effort (Keller and von der Gracht, 2014;Melander et al., 2019;Roßmann et al., 2018;von der Gracht & Darkow, 2010). We opted for the latter to increase the number of addressed issues, reduce potential team member biases, and improve projection quality. ...
Executive education (EE) has been an established means for management education. However, due to the ever-changing business environment, progress in education technology, and new competitors, EE has been continuously evolving and can be expected to further change. Employing a three-stage international Delphi study, we identify a plausible scenario for the further development of EE over the next decade. The results suggest major changes for management training. The panel expects major shifts in teaching methods and curricula construction. Business schools are expected to increase content customization, to adapt delivery formats, and to enhance coverage of topical issues to better respond to leaders' needs.
... According to research guidelines, experts anonymously provide their answers to a standardized questionnaire over at least two rounds [33]. The interim results of each round are summarized and fed back to the experts during the next stage to narrow the statistical spread and facilitate concurrence among the participants [34][35][36][37][38]. As Wright et al described, a Delphi study is especially suitable in cases requiring human judgmental input owing to missing historical or technical data, such as forecasting the development of emerging technologies [39]. ...
Background
Voice-controlled intelligent personal assistants (VIPAs), such as Amazon Echo and Google Home, involve artificial intelligence–powered algorithms designed to simulate humans. Their hands-free interface and growing capabilities have a wide range of applications in health care, covering off-clinic education, health monitoring, and communication. However, conflicting factors, such as patient safety and privacy concerns, make it difficult to foresee the further development of VIPAs in health care.
Objective
This study aimed to develop a plausible scenario for the further development of VIPAs in health care to support decision making regarding the procurement of VIPAs in health care organizations.
Methods
We conducted a two-stage Delphi study with an internationally recruited panel consisting of voice assistant experts, medical professionals, and representatives of academia, governmental health authorities, and nonprofit health associations having expertise with voice technology. Twenty projections were formulated and evaluated by the panelists. Descriptive statistics were used to derive the desired scenario.
ResultsThe panelists expect VIPAs to be able to provide solid medical advice based on patients’ personal health information and to have human-like conversations. However, in the short term, voice assistants might neither provide frustration-free user experience nor outperform or replace humans in health care. With a high level of consensus, the experts agreed with the potential of VIPAs to support elderly people and be widely used as anamnesis, informational, self-therapy, and communication tools by patients and health care professionals. Although users’ and governments’ privacy concerns are not expected to decrease in the near future, the panelists believe that strict regulations capable of preventing VIPAs from providing medical help services will not be imposed.
Conclusions
According to the surveyed experts, VIPAs will show notable technological development and gain more user trust in the near future, resulting in widespread application in health care. However, voice assistants are expected to solely support health care professionals in their daily operations and will not be able to outperform or replace medical staff.
The freight forwarding (FF) industry plays a key role in running global supply chains, with a sales revenue of $180.66 billion in 2021. Digitization in supply chain management, a thriving topic in the past few years, has been accelerated by the challenges of COVID-19 and presents both challenges and opportunities for the FF industry which requires freight forwarders to adapt. Since technological foresight studies for the FF space are scarce, the specific expected impacts of digitization in FF remain unrevealed today. The aim of this study is to examine upcoming changes in the FF industry expected by FF professionals and academics over the next 30 years against the background of current technological developments and to identify related resilience measures for FF organizations. Overall, 84 international experts shared their estimates in a Delphi survey. The results are clustered into four clusters that provide an outlook for the future of FF. The results show that FF organizations should adapt to developing customer expectations, a change in the FF profile due to new requirements and a change of vision for the development of human resources. Still, experts see a high relevance for FF services in the future despite all technological developments.
Cross-sector collaboration is a strategy employed in the realm of pharmaceutical disaster preparedness. The present study aims to integrate the roles of all stakeholders in the collaboration function through hierarchical planning. The Delphi method was employed as the primary research approach, specifically in the context of an expert consensus study. This method involved conducting a three-round Delphi survey, encompassing seven experts. The results of each round yielded an Interquartile Range (IQR) ≤20, indicating a strong consensus among experts in assessing the parameters. Subsequently, these parameters were categorized based on hierarchical planning: strategic (8 parameters), tactical (9 parameters), and operational (13 parameters). The Delphi process was successful in achieving a consensus from diverse perspectives on collaborative efforts in pharmaceutical preparedness in the event of a disaster. These findings serve as a policy framework for defining stakeholder authority and responsibilities within the disaster mitigation cycle, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector.
The Knowledge Economy is sustained by a large and varied range of type of libraries (public-state or university library, private library…) whose missions and models of delivering services are increasingly challenging due to change in readings habits since many years, and more recently by the Covid-19 crisis. In such context, we look at this sector as an organizational field whose future we question in the light of social (in the habits of access and use of knowledge), technological and relational changes, and raising the following question: “how is the organizational field of libraries reconfiguring internationally and externally in 2030? ". We conduct a prospective study to look ahead to the expected evolution of libraries and the role they could continue to play to support education, culture, and economy (in 2030). We use the Delphi method in three steps (data collection, formulation of an initial set of projections from discussions with experts, interviews and focus-groups). We propose four scenarios, two of which are considered trend scenarios, extensions of current trends in which libraries are adapting to a changing environment. Our results show that, despite significant consequences, COVID-19 did not change the course of these two scenarios. The two other projections are seen as “disruptive” scenarios: one anticipates the marginalization of libraries, the other the breakdown of the library concept itself. We finally offer contributions to the organizational field literature.
The objective of this study is to find new options for the promotion of intermodality, based on short sea shipping, as applied to perishable products. At present, most of the transport is carried out by refrigerated trucks. In theory, this change would have positive effects on the environment and could even reduce transit costs, but companies are still hesitant to implement this practice. In this context, the present study aims to determine whether there are aspects other than operational considerations (e.g., time, cost, quality or environmental concerns) that condition modal shift. First, a literature review is conducted which attempts to identify both the strengths and weaknesses of intermodality in perishable transport. This review serves as the basis for the elaboration of a questionnaire targeting transport actors within the fruit and vegetable supply chain in southeastern Spain – the area taken as an application example. Next, the survey is used to determine the possible drivers that would favor a modal shift applying a structural equation analysis, corroborated with a traditional econometric model. As a result, the design of an overall strategy based on the creation of redistribution hubs at destination (i.e., located at ports), whose operations could be optimized through the digitization of the supply chain, appears to be a promising approach.
Vehicle automation is one of the most researched topics in transport studies but much remains uncertain about the speed of adoption and potential impacts, including if and how it can contribute to greater environmental sustainability. This study adopts a Delphi approach to examine the speed with which 15% of new vehicles will be automated (SAE-3, SAE-4 or SAE-5) and what impacts automation may have on motility, mobility, resource use and externalities in both passenger and freight transport. Although challenges with recruitment mean that all findings must be caveated and seen as exploratory, the analysis demonstrates considerable dissensus regarding the expected speed and impacts of vehicle automation in both passenger and freight transport among the participants. For both aspects, a diversity of views remains once participants were informed about the expectations of other panellists. The range of views is organised around the axes of optimism and certainty about what may happen. Considerable differences between passenger and freight transport can be identified for potential impacts of vehicle automation but not for speed of adoption.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyse how start-ups with a clear sustainability focus collaborate with multiple actors at different levels to pursue business ideas and develop sustainable freight transport solutions.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper builds on a theoretical approach that includes three levels of analysis: the actor level (micro), business-network level (meso) and society and government level (macro). An embedded case study is used of a focal start-up aiming to innovate on networked platforms and electric and autonomous vehicles (EAVs).
Findings
Activities and resources are developed at the firm (micro), network (meso) and societal levels (macro), and all three levels need to be considered for a start-up, with a clear sustainability focus. Interaction within as well as between levels affects the innovation development, integration and implementation. The many-folded collaborations at the meso level serve as a locus for the integration of EAVs. The start-up’s networking activities with actors at meso and macro levels contribute to it gaining legitimacy in the transport system.
Originality/value
This paper focuses on the importance of collaboration in the context of developing innovative solutions for environmental sustainability and freight transport and provides a unique case of how a start-up company manages collaborations at the micro, meso and macro levels.
In recent years, the oil industry has developed increasingly by creating continuous innovation system, whether identifying barriers, evaluating new possibilities, integrating systems, adding value to research and development to overcome commonly encountered challenges. In this respect, the operations concerning the treatment of produced water stand out. In dynamic environments, these Foresights must be constantly updated. The present work sought to identify factors that provide directions to understand future scenarios for the treatment process of produced water from the oil industry. The methodology used was initially based on the Delphi method, which was applied to direct and concatenate opinions obtained through a consensus among experts in the field. Additionally, the SAPEVO-M tool was implemented to assist decision-making based on the identified scenarios, evaluating, in advance, the risks, uncertainties, and possibilities involved in the treatment of produced water. The results obtained allowed us to infer potential technological scenarios, especially sustainable processes, which will be promising and challenging for the oil industry in the medium and long term, a period necessary for the maturation of the potential technologies used. In addition, a critical assessment of existing risks in each technology to minimize future uncertainties was considered.
This paper presents an analysis of the potential impacts of large-scale adoption of driverless trucks on transport patterns and system costs for a national freight transport system with Sweden as a case study. The analysis is performed by extending the application domain of the Swedish national freight transport model Samgods to analyze two types of driverless truck scenarios. The first scenario represents a full adoption of driverless trucks that can operate the complete road network and thereby substitute manually driven trucks. In this scenario, road transport tonne-kilometers on Swedish territory increase by 22%, vehicle kilometers traveled by trucks increase by 35% and annual total system costs decrease by 1.7 B€ compared to a baseline scenario without driverless trucks. In the second scenario, the current fleet of manually driven trucks is complemented by driverless trucks that can operate on major roads between logistics hubs, but not in complex traffic environments like urban areas due to a limited operational design domain. This may be an initial use-case for driverless trucks operating on public roads. In this scenario, road tonne-kilometers increase by 11%, truck vehicle kilometers traveled increase by 15%, and annual total system costs decrease by 1.2 B€ compared to the baseline. For both scenarios, the impacts of driverless trucks vary significantly between commodity types and transport distances which suggests heterogeneity of benefits of automated driving between different types of freight flows. A sensitivity analysis is performed in which the costs for driverless truck operations is varied, and for the second scenario, also which parts of the road network that driverless trucks can operate are varied. This analysis indicates that the magnitude of impacts is highly dependent on the cost level of driverless trucks and that the ability for DL-trucks to perform international, cross-border transport is crucial for achieving reductions in system costs. An overarching conclusion of the study is that driverless trucks may lead to a significant increase in road transport demand due to modal shifts from rail and sea as a result of the improved cost performance of road transport. This would further strengthen the need to decarbonize road transport to meet non-negotiable climate targets. Important topics for future research include assessing potential societal costs related to driverless trucks due to infrastructure investments and negative externalities such as increasing CO2 emissions and congestion.
With the enormous population growth and the ever-increasing use of various electronic devices in modern life, the proper disposal of the “Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment” (WEEE) has been of paramount importance. The pervasive use of social media by customers has made governments and businesses use these platforms as a rich source of data to extract intelligence on consumer opinions. However, some scholars doubt the sufficiency of social media data concerning the design of a comprehensive list containing all influential factors on consumer behavior toward the proper treatment of WEEE. Thus, a mixed method of quantitative (by analyzing about 2,500,000 tweets from Twitter) and qualitative approaches (i.e. a literature thematic analysis followed by a three-phased Delphi method) has been adopted. Due to consumers’ different behavior based on their local status, the experts have been split into two different panels from developed and developing countries. They have also been provided with the findings from the literature along with the results from Twitter data analysis. The findings have revealed that economic incentives play a pivotal role in both categories. People in developing countries usually have concerns regarding socio-economic and socio-political issues, while in developed nations higher levels of influential factors exist, including proximity, suitability and ease of access, and so forth. The truth is that in order to have a green and pollution-free world, the whole world, whether developed or developing, must take joint steps to create public welfare, peace of mind and world peace. Otherwise, unilateral actions of countries will not have their desired effectiveness.
Urban mobility is particularly affected by technology development. This research focuses on the mobility system of cities in the foreseeable future – that is, until the 2030s. A systematic literature review (SLR) of 62 scientific documents and 52 scenarios predicted and developed by researchers are presented here, providing a comprehensive picture of current urban transport research perspectives. Based on a complex method built for this review, four scenarios (‘Grumpy old transport’, ‘At an easy pace’, ‘Mine is yours’, and ‘Tech-eager mobility’) have been created, each forecasting a different path towards future urban mobility. The scenarios so formed describe the expected role and potential of emerging mobility solutions (namely autonomous vehicles, shared mobility, and electrification) and include socio-economic and environmental perspectives. By 2030, most likely pathways are the ‘At an easy pace’ or the ‘Mine is yours’ scenarios, which means that only an incremental advance, such as a slow shift towards self-driving, electric and shared vehicle use is predicted.
Objective: Due to the numerous and diverse food industry companies in Iran, the packaging industry is regarded as a stimulus and empowering force for the economy as well as a driving force for the development of domestic production, increase in the exports, improvement of the economic situation of the society, employment, and increase in the national income. According to the 2025 Perspective which emphasizes on improving the domestic production and the resilient economy, it is highly important to plan to improve the food packaging industry. This perspective must be planned in reflexive manner in order to be able to deal with the future uncertainties. Food packaging industry activists are also expected to keep working with regard to the probable market conditions and changes in the world, in order to be able to respond to market changes and survive. Therefore, the present study aims to explain the possible future scenarios in the food packaging industry in Iran with respect to 2025 Perspective. Methodology: The present applied study includes qualitative variables and is regarded as a descriptive research. It has been conducted as a survey using the scenario planning method based on the opinions of a group of managers and experts. In the first step, fuzzy Delphi method was used to identify the effective factors and key uncertainties in the packaging industry, and then three compatible scenarios were developed based on the possible situations for each of the key uncertainties using Scenario Wizard software. Finally, different strategies were proposed for each scenario by the experts. Findings: According to the research findings, the effective factors and the key uncertainties in the packaging industry include: 1) the regulations for communication and foreign trades, 2) the status of competition laws and the emergence of the new contestants, 3) emphasis on health and safety issues and standards, 4) emphasis on the virtual nature among the people in the society, 5) fluctuations of the
Impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the transport sector and the corresponding policy measures are becoming widely investigated. Considering the various uncertainties and unknowns about this virus and its impacts (especially long-term impacts), it is critical to understand opinions and suggestions from experts within the transport sector and related planning fields. To date, however, there is no study that fills this gap in a comprehensive way. This paper is an executive summary of the findings of the WCTRS COVID-19 Taskforce expert survey conducted worldwide between the end of April and late May 2020, obtaining 284 valid answers. The experts include those in the field of transport and other relevant disciplines, keeping good balances between geographic regions, types of workplaces, and working durations. Based on extensive analyses of the survey results, this paper first reveals the realities of lockdowns, restrictions of out-of-home activities and other physical distancing requirements, as well as modal shifts. Experts’ agreements and disagreements to the structural questions about changes in lifestyles and society are then discussed. Analysis results revealed that our human society was not well prepared for the current pandemic, reaffirming the importance of risk communication. Geographical differences of modal shifts are further identified, especially related to active transport and car dependence. Improved sustainability and resilience are expected in the future but should be supported by effective behavioral intervention measures. Finally, policy implications of the findings are discussed, together with important future research issues.
It is widely recognized that transformation of urban areas are urgent to meet the demands for more efficient and environmental friendly transportation in the future. Although there are general agreements on the need for change, different ideas and visions for the future dominate across different groups of stakeholders and academics. In this paper we explore various views on the future of everyday travelling in urban regions, 30–40 years ahead, focussing in particular on four larger urban areas in Norway. Based on an innovative web-based Delphi-study, involving 280 national experts, various conceptions of future urban travelling is explored. An explorative factor analysis (principal component analysis) is applied to reveal three slightly different understandings of how the urban future may look like in 2050. These three visions - labelled as “Controlled mobility”, “Technopolis” and “Shared mobility”- suggests slightly different scenarios’ for the future of urban travelling.
First and second generation biofuels are among few low-carbon alternatives for road transport that currently are commercially available or in an early commercialization phase. They are thus potential options for meeting climate targets in the medium term. For the case of Sweden, we investigate cost-efficient use of biofuels in road transport under system-wide CO2 reduction targets to 2050, and the effects of implementation of targets for an almost fossil-free road transport sector to 2030. We apply the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which covers the entire Swedish energy system including the transport sector. For CO2 reductions of 80% to 2050 in the Swedish energy system as a whole, the results of the main scenario show an annual growth rate for road transport biofuels of about 6% from 2010 to 2050, with biofuels accounting for 78% of road transport final energy use in 2050. The preferred biofuel choices are methanol and biomethane. When introducing additional fossil fuel phase-out policies in road transport (−80% to 2030), a doubling of the growth rate to 2030 is required and system CO2 abatement costs increases by 6% for the main scenario. Results imply that second generation biofuels, along with energy-efficient vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids, can be an important part of optimized system solutions meeting stringent medium-term climate targets.
The freight and logistics sector is of significant importance as an enabler and driver of the global economy, but it is also inherently vulnerable to hazardous weather. Despite this, there is currently no quantitative assessment of how climate change may affect the sector. This paper applies multidisciplinary climate change impact assessment tools and conceptual frameworks to the road freight sector of Great Britain in order to identify potential future weather-related safety issues. Relationships between weather and freight accidents are determined using road accident data and meteorological observations, which are then used with climate change scenarios to arrive at projections of possible impacts across the regions of Great Britain. Included in the study are industry perceptions of future trends within the sector and wider economy which many affect freight’s exposure and sensitivity to weather. These are elicited through interviews and an iterative expert Delphi study. Hence, unlike many other climate change impact assessments, this innovative study takes into account the potentially significant impact of socio-economic change (including institutional and operational). The results show that summer precipitation and winter ice-related accidents are likely to decrease across most of the country, whereas winter rain-related accidents are projected to increase. However, it is postulated that some of the impacts of climate change will be modified by reflexive behavioural change on the part of the driver and either institutional adaptation or complacency on the part of the road authorities. The paper concludes by framing the study in a range of future scenarios outlining how the socio-economic environment could influence the road transport network and how it is used, modifying the impact of climate change.
In response to a request by the guest editors, we have set down our thoughts regarding the evolution of Delphi, beginning with our immersion in the subject in the late 1960s and concluding with some rumination about its future. Our focus is on the changing roles of Delphi. Most importantly, with the profound impact of the internet on organizational and community planning systems, it will foster a new age of participation through communication, coordination, and collaboration.
The policy delphi is a specific design to address a policy issue that has many alternative resolutions to the solution of the policy issue.
It starts with a literature search to establish all the different published resolutions of the policy or recommend ones. The paper describes how the respondents to the Delphi should vote on the different resolutions for
desirability and feasible. Any respondent can mage positive or negative comments about the issue and anyone can vote on any of these comments for the true or false measure and the feasibility measure as well.
Participants may change (at any time) their votes at any time due to the contributions of the participants. Ideally this is done online and may be entered at any time for any participant and the system shows the user new items or new vote values they have not seen. The user may also review any part of the delphi they wish to see at that time. They may also introduce at any time new policy resolutions and new comments. The published paper has an example topic. It can be done as an mailed set of rounds also but it does make it harder to make a lot of dynamic changes to earlier rounds.
Expert opinion is often necessary in forecasting tasks because of a lack of appropriate or available information for using statistical procedures. But how does one get the best forecast from experts? One solution is to use a structured group technique, such as Delphi, for eliciting and combining expert judgments. In using the Delphi technique, one controls the exchange of information between anonymous panelists over a number of rounds (iterations), taking the average of the estimates on the final round as the group judgment. A number of principles are developed here to indicate how to conduct structured groups to obtain good expert judgments. These principles, applied to the conduct of Delphi groups, indicate how many and what type of experts to use (five to 20 experts with disparate domain knowledge); how many rounds to use (generally two or three); what type of feedback to employ (average estimates plus justifications from each expert); how to summarize the final forecast (weight all experts’ estimates equally); how to word questions (in a balanced way with succinct definitions free of emotive terms and irrelevant information); and what response modes to use (frequencies rather than probabilities or odds, with coherence checks when feasible). Delphi groups are substantially more accurate than individual experts and traditional groups and somewhat more accurate than statistical groups (which are made up of noninteracting individuals whose judgments are aggregated). Studies support the advantage of Delphi groups over traditional groups by five to one with one tie, and their advantage over statistical groups by 12 to two with two ties. We anticipate that by following these principles, forecasters may be able to use structured groups to harness effectively expert opinion.
The interactive capacity of the Internet offers benefits that are intimately linked with contemporary research innovation in the natural resource and environmental studies domains. However, e-research methodologies, such as the e-Delphi technique, have yet to undergo critical review. This study advances methodological discourse on the e-Delphi technique by critically assessing an e-Delphi case study. The analysis suggests that the benefits of using e-Delphi are noteworthy but the authors acknowledge that researchers are likely to face challenges that could potentially compromise research validity and reliability. To ensure that these issues are sufficiently considered when planning and designing an e-Delphi, important facets of the technique are discussed and recommendations are offered to help the environmental researcher avoid potential pitfalls associated with coordinating e-Delphi research.
This paper presents the case of a non-traditional use of the Delphi method for theory evaluation. On the basis of experience gained through secondary and primary research, a generic decision toolkit for Delphi studies is proposed, comprising of taxonomy of Delphi design choices, a stage model and critical methodological decisions. These research tools will help to increase confidence when adopting the Delphi alternative and allow for a wider and more comprehensive recognition of the method within both scientific and interpretivist studies.
Purpose
The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.
Design/methodology/approach
The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.
Findings
The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.
Practical implications
Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.
Originality/value
Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.
Purpose
Networks and relationships are not stable. On the contrary, they change and are transformed by the actors who take part in them. Change and transformation result from the actions and reactions of these actors. However, a key issue is what makes the actors choose some actions and reactions while refraining from others.
Design/methodology/approach
We argue that the actors’ expectations to the future of the network are formative for the actions and reactions and, furthermore, that the future expectations are formed by interaction among the actors that take part in the networks.
Findings
We depart from the existing foresight literature, but realign its ideas to fit with the core tenets of the IMP approach. Thereby, our purpose is twofold: To explore and conceptualise network foresight phenomena as well as to contribute to the practice of collective foresighting in business networks.
Research limitations/implications
We suggest research into formations of expectations in networks with a specific view to the interactive and structural effects of networks. Furthermore, we suggest a framework for categorizing network episodes and linking these to the formation of recognized issues and solutions.
Practical implications
We provide a framework for analyzing the focus of business networks in terms of solutions and issues, and analytically breaking down the interaction among these
Originality/value
We introduce the concept of business network foresight, both as a distinct concept that enables us to understand change and transformation in networks, but also as a procedure for supporting actors’ strategizing efforts in business networks.
Developing scenarios for future sustainable transport solutions is challenging as there are many uncertainties to consider. One method used is the Delphi method. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how the Delphi method has been used in transport scenario studies and to discuss the method’s methodological considerations and future potential in transport studies. The review is based on publications within transport research in which the Delphi method is used to develop future scenarios. Reflections and discussions on the Delphi method are presented and highlight three aspects: context, consensus and combining methods. By sampling experts from a wide range of backgrounds and organisations, a number of differing views are incorporated in the studies. Researchers need to consider the context of the selected experts and how it affects the possibilities for consensus. Reaching consensus may limit exploration of new innovative and radical ideas. Instead of aiming for consensus, this paper points out that a dissensus Delphi can be used in order to explore divergent ideas about the future. Finally, the Delphi method can be combined with quantitative as well as qualitative methods.
The backcasting approach is being increasingly used in the field of transport to address issues of climate change. While it acknowledges that a structured involvement of stakeholders should become central in transport backcasting studies, there are very few policy relevant papers that pay special attention to stakeholder participation in the visioning phase of backcasting. This paper aims at showing the findings of a participatory visioning study as a starting point of a wider backcasting analysis for the transport sector (2050) in Andalusia (Spain). It presents a methodological approach that involves a total of 40 stakeholders and combines two participatory techniques: (i) Delphi survey; (ii) semi-structured interviews. The main outcomes show how stakeholders were engaged in the participation process through each technique. It then identifies five relevant methodological issues for a more detailed discussion: (i) the selection of participants; (ii) the means to visualise long-term futures ; (iii) the visualisation of desired futures; (iv) the generation of multiple future visions; (v) the combination of multiple participatory techniques. In parallel, the study also presents the means by which the use of both par-ticipatory techniques can provide a narrative of a future vision for the transport sector in Andalusia. That vision focuses largely on lower carbon emissions, technological innovation, and urban compactness.
Purpose
– There is consensus among experts that the design of future supply chains will have to focus more strongly on environmental concerns. Sustainability will play a major role within the business and has an impact especially on the distant future. Thus, supply chain executives are challenged in designing sustainable supply chains for the future. The paper aims to discuss this issue.
Design/methodology/approach
– The authors develop expert-based scenarios, which describe how future supply chains could evolve by 2030. The authors focus on the transportation and logistics industry’s perspective to provide an industry-internal view. The data collection is based on an internet-based Delphi survey. Overall, 48 top executives from 20 countries, representing academic, governmental, and industrial perspectives, participated in the survey.
Findings
– The authors operationalized the research question into five concrete sub-topics relevant for investigation: energy and emissions, consumer behaviour, future transport modes, design of future supply chains, and innovation. The authors derive five Delphi-based scenarios defined by clusters of their impact and expected probability: measurement and control of CO2-emissions; integrated low energy logistics systems; business-as-usual logistics; no-frills logistics and alternative fuels. Each cluster contributes differently to supply chain strategy.
Originality/value
– The authors address the major issues and challenges experts expect regarding future supply chains in an energy-constrained, low-carbon world. Five scenario clusters evolved for supply chain strategy development. Finally, the authors make recommendations towards strategic planning in the transportation and logistics industry.
The aim of this article is to identify a set of technological events related to the Brazilian truck fleet that are well placed hierarchically regarding their possibility of occurrence and pertinence for the horizon year of 2021. For this we propose and apply a Technology Forecasting Model for trucks (called TFM/Trucks) based on the Delphi technique, considering 28 technological events associated with six internal forecasting dimensions: safety, efficient use of energy and alternative fuels, materials technology, operational schemes, comfort and environment. The ranking of the technological events, considering hypothetical situations for analysis, indicate significant concern over the safety dimension, with four of the five events (passive safety and active safety) classified among the 10 events with the greatest chance of occurring and pertinence, irrespective of the panelists' degree of specialization. The environmental dimension, with respect to the predominance of electric powered trucks with lower level of atmospheric pollutants, was always in one of the first two positions, regardless of the situation studied. In the final ranking, the five best-classified events represented the dimensions of safety, environment, materials technology and comfort, with environment and passive safety predominating.
In order to mobilize the necessary resources for innovation forecasts are unavoidable. However, a forecast is never a neutral or objective assessment. Given an interdependent business landscape, there are at least two major context-related aspects that affect an innovation forecast. First, the actor that makes the forecast is embedded into a specific context. Secondly, the potential innovation stems from a specific environment, and will during the innovation journey be related to other environments in a producing and a using setting, and thus to other investments in place. In this paper we examine the development of one innovation and the forecasts made by three different economic actors. There is an interesting variation in the forecasts that can be explained as a variation of contexts of the actors. The contexts influence the way that the forecasts are done and especially in terms of what the context of the innovation is assumed to be. The empirical findings suggest that the results of the innovation forecast are highly dependent on the actors' abstraction of the business landscape which in turn is affected by the contexts of the actors.
a b s t r a c t The logistics services industry will be significantly affected by future developments throughout the world. Therefore, developing future scenarios is an important basis for long-term strategy development. Nevertheless, research exposes that there is a lack of awareness among logistics researchers and practitioners about future scenarios. In this paper, we apply scenario planning and present the findings of an extensive Delphi-based scenario study on the future of the logistics services industry in the year 2025. The major contribution of our research is the development of probable and unforeseen scenarios of the future which may provide a valuable basis for strategy development in the logistics services industry.
In this paper, we present a novel approach for generating scenarios in multi-stakeholder environments. In order to address one of the most imperative environmental and societal challenges related to mobility, we explore the future of electric drive vehicles (EDVs). Since many different stakeholders are involved in the socio-technological transition from internal combustion engines (ICEs) to EDVs, we present a dissent-based scenario development process, which uses the Delphi technique for data generation. In total, 140 experts from 15 stakeholder groups participated in this German-based survey and assessed controversial projections for 2030. Results reveal a considerably high degree of dissent. In order to cope with different viewpoints in the scenario development process, we utilize a novel 5-step dissent analysis for further insights into possible futures. Thus, we account for potential differences among stakeholder groups (step 1), the effect of a desirability bias (step 2), as well as the impact of outliers (step 3) and bipolarity (step 4) in the survey results. Finally, we identify different clusters of experts through latent class analysis (step 5). Based on the results of the dissent analysis, seven partially conflicting multi-stakeholder scenarios for the future of EDVs in 2030 are developed.
A novel and innovative real-time Delphi technique is introduced in order to address previously identified weaknesses of the conventional Delphi method, such as complicated facilitator tasks, lack of real-time presentation of results, and difficulties in tracking progress over time. We demonstrate how the real-time (computer-based) method increases the efficiency of the process, accommodates expert availability, and reduces drop-out-rates. Modifications in the Delphi procedure (e.g. change of iteration principle) not only increase efficiency but also change the nature and process of the survey technique itself. By identifying and analysing three individual effects (initial condition effect, feedback effect, and iteration effect) we examine whether the modifications in the survey process cause deviations to the survey results. Empirical data obtained from both conventional as well as real-time Delphi studies is analysed based on multiple statistical analyses. The research findings indicate that significant differences between the two Delphi survey formats do not exist and final survey results are not affected by changes in the survey procedure.
This paper presents and discusses a backcasting study for Stockholm 2050. The focus is on developing images of a future where Stockholm citizens have sustainable energy use—here defined as a 60% reduction per capita over a 50-year period. The perspective is that of households, so all energy is allocated to individuals’ activities rather than being discussed from a sector perspective. Six images of the future are developed by combining a space dimension (three versions of changes in urban structure) and a time dimension (two versions of people's life tempo). Added to this is technological development, so that the images of the future illustrate how combinations of planning, behavioural change and technological development could lead to sustainable energy use.
This paper presents an adapted Delphi methodology that is, contrary to the classical Delphi design is not aiming to minimize expert estimation variance, but to maximize the range of expert opinions inputted sequentially into an online system. After discussing the traditional Delphi approach and its dissensus based derivatives, the author opens the case for a dissensus Delphi based explorative research tool with special consideration of the Delphi aim, the expert sample and the Delphi design. The proposed online Delphi process is then presented conceptually. Next, the proposed tool is demonstrated based on a prototype, exploring the barrier factors to the adoption of mobile data services. A discussion on the theoretical design and practical R&D experience of the dissensus based online Delphi approach concludes the paper.
Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success—and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the “language” to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society.
Modern information and microelectronic technology can be used to improve road traffic. The aim of this study is to create scenarios on how new information systems for improved road traffic can evolve. What are the driving forces? Who can act? Who can benefit? What are the social impacts?Through the use of a Delphi panel of professionals, researchers, and informed generalists, we have gathered impulses for the scenarios on how information technology, communication means, and control systems can reshape future road traffic. The issue studied is how this “Road Transport Informatics” (RTI) will evolve.
In this study the Delphi Method was used to validate teaching competencies of faculty members in higher education. Through the use of expert opinion, a panel of national leaders in college-level teaching validated twenty seven competencies as important or very important for faculty members who teach. Seven other competencies were rated slightly below a mean score of 4.0 suggesting, based on additional feedback by the panel, that the importance of some competencies may depend on specific variables found within a given context.
Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.
Several technology and fuel options could be used to lower the strong oil dependence of the transportation sector. To formulate policies and to cost-effectively meet oil reduction objectives, assessments and comparisons of the long-term economic performances of different technology trajectories are essential. In this work, the energy and technology costs associated with reducing oil consumption in passenger cars in Sweden are calculated for a number of possible future transport fuel pathways and for different energy prices and climate policies. An optimisation model is applied in a simulatory multiple-run approach for this purpose. The model encompasses the transportation sector, as well as the stationary energy system. In terms of results, a methanol-based pathway gives incremental system costs in the range of −0.9–3billion EUR for a complete phase-out of passenger car oil up to 2030. As compared to the methanol pathway, other biomass gasification-based fuel pathways involve additional incremental system costs in the region of 3billion EUR, whereas ethanol- and electricity-based pathways give additional incremental system costs of 4–5billion EUR. At lower oil reduction levels, the cost differences between the pathways are smaller and the electricity-based pathway is significantly more cost-competitive.
Research on the future of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of road freight transport in Finland is reported in this paper. Delphi method is utilized to forecast the changes of GDP and seven indicators which determine the CO2 emissions of road freight. Information about the factors affecting the future of these indicators was also collected and an innovative method for acquiring qualitative data in the first round of Delphi study and quantifying it in the second round is presented. Cluster analysis is used to create six scenarios for 2030. The scenarios are mostly driven by different economic developments, which result in very different demand for transport. Despite of this, all scenarios forecast at least 26% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2010 level, while the maximum reduction in one of the scenarios is 74%.
Various scenario typologies have been suggested in attempts to make the field of futures studies easier to overview. Our typology is based on the scenario user's need to know what will happen, what can happen, and/or how a predefined target can be achieved. We discuss the applicability of various generating, integrating and consistency techniques for developing scenarios that provide the required knowledge. The paper is intended as a step towards a guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used.
This paper examines critically the Delphi technique to determine whether it succeeds in alleviating the “process loss” typical of interacting groups. After briefly reviewing the technique, we consider problems with Delphi from two perspectives. First, we examine methodological and technical difficulties and the problems these have brought about in experimental applications. We suggest that important differences exist between the typical laboratory Delphi and the original concept of Delphi. These differences, reflecting a lack of control of important group characteristics/factors (such as the relative level of panelist expertise), make comparisons between Delphi studies unrealistic, as are generalizations from laboratory studies to the ideal of Delphi. This conclusion diminishes the power of those former Delphi critiques that have largely dismissed the procedure because of the variability of laboratory study results. Second, having noted the limited usefulness of the majority of studies for answering questions on the effectiveness of Delphi, we look at the technique from a theoritical/ mechanical perspective. That is, by drawing upon ideas/findings from other areas of research, we attempt to discern whether the structure of the Delphi procedure itself might reasonably be expected to function as intended. We conclude that inadequacies in the nature of feedback typically supplied in applications of Delphi tend to ensure that any small gains in the resolution of “process loss” are offset by the removal of any opportunity for group “process gain”. Some solutions to this dilemma are advocated; they are based on an analysis of the process of judgment change within groups and a consideration of factors that increase the validity of statistical/ nominal groups over their constituent individual components.
For meaningful scenarios, creative input concerning possible future trends is crucial. Herman Kahn, the father of modern scenario planning, underlined the importance of “thinking the unthinkable” in a significant scenario study. “Blessed with high intelligence, an assertive personality and the research capabilities of the RAND Corporation,” he could rely on genius forecasting. But how can this foresight be creative as well as simultaneously credible and objective if one does not possess Kahn's genius? In this article, we assess the incorporation of expert knowledge via the Delphi technique into scenario planning as a promising option. We discuss possible combinations and identify the span of design alternatives in the existing body of Delphi-based scenario studies through a systematic research review and provide recommendations on how a Delphi-based scenario study should be designed to ensure quality. We recommend focusing on the integration of the Delphi technique only in one phase of the scenario approach. In this way, the design options can be intentionally adjusted to the particular function. We further offer recommendations on how to accomplish this.
In the last 30 years, there has been increasing application of the Delphi technique to tourism research. However, mystification regarding Delphi characteristics and procedures is evident in the literature. Through critical examination, this paper seeks to demystify the Delphi and advance understanding of the technique, contribute to the evolution of methodological guidelines, and provide further guidance to tourism researchers. A generic Delphi procedure is introduced, a critical review of its advantages and potential problems is presented, and critical design decisions are identified. Expert panel design and management are emphasised through example and critical review. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
As supply management becomes more involved in strategic decisions, an understanding of the various strategies that it can employ is crucial. This research uses a multiround Delphi study of key procurement and supply management executives to better understand which procurement and supply management strategies may lead to significant improvements over the next 5–10 years. The results indicate that strategies such as increased integration, information sharing and collaboration among supply chain members are most likely to be implemented and will have the largest impact on organizations. However, this integration will not include joint investment or asset sharing, will be limited to one tier in the supply chain, and will not heavily involve e-markets and electronic auctions.
This paper reports on research undertaken to determine the baseline trends in logistics and supply chain management and associated environmental effects up to 2020. Factors affecting freight transport demand, truck fuel consumption and related CO2 emissions are classified into six categories in relation to different levels of logistical decision-making. The projections are based on the results of seven focus group discussions and a large-scale Delphi survey. Three scenarios are constructed to assess CO2 emission levels from road freight transport in 2020. The likely changes in the key logistics variables are discussed and the complexity of the problem is highlighted.
When discussing how society can decrease greenhouse gas emissions, the transport sector is often seen as posing one of the most difficult problems. In addition, the transport sector faces problems related to security of supply. The aim of this paper is to present possible strategies for a road transport system based on renewable energy sources and to illustrate how such a system could be designed to avoid dependency on imports, using Sweden as an example. The demand-side strategies considered include measures for decreasing the demand for transport, as well as various technical and non-technical means of improving vehicle fuel economy. On the supply side, biofuels and synthetic fuels produced from renewable electricity are discussed. Calculations are performed to ascertain the possible impact of these measures on the future Swedish road transport sector. The results underline the importance of powerful demand-side measures and show that although biofuels can certainly contribute significantly to an import-independent road transport sector, they are far from enough even in a biomass-rich country like Sweden. Instead, according to this study, fuels based on renewable electricity will have to cover more than half of the road transport sector’s energy demand.
Identifying policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system is a major challenge for policy makers since it involves a high level of uncertainty regarding the future effect of a given policy package on the transportation system and the urban environment. In this paper, we suggest and use a scenario approach to explore the future development of the Tel-Aviv Metropolitan Area (TAMA). We have constructed two scenarios for the future development of the TAMA: an expected scenario and a desired scenario. The scenarios were constructed by means of a two-round Delphi expert-based survey. Based on the opinion of the experts, our research examines the potential policy measures, which may contribute to a sustainable transportation system in Tel-Aviv. The development of both expected and desired scenarios helped to analyze the feasibility of the desired scenario and assess the likelihood of implementation of its different elements. According to the results, the key elements in the desired scenario are a highly developed public transport system, better coordination between the spatial development and the transportation system, high parking fees, congestion pricing and maintaining the functional role of the Central Business District area. The expected scenario shares many common elements with the desired scenario, which is considered a positive result.
The objective of this study was to analyse the environmental impact of future supply chains for dairy products. A scenario technique was chosen because scenarios can yield information about the environmental consequences of certain lines of action or developments in a system. To quantify the effects of future systems, a mathematical model of the milk supply chain was constructed and used to simulate possible scenarios. The model was based mainly on life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The results show that any consideration of the environmental effects of the milk supply chain must consider the entire chain. The amount of packaging materials used is an important factor, as is the transportation of the dairy products to households.
This paper includes a presentation of the results from a scenario study on transport telematics in urban passenger transport. An international Delphi panel of 100 experts from 20 countries replied to questions on the feasibility and impact of a restricted number of different technical scenarios. The results show that most experts see substantial potential for limiting certain transport problems if there is broad implementation of transport telematics as described in this study. The majority of experts favoured a scenario based on extended public transport information. In that scenario, environmental gains were in practice paid for in terms of less comfortable trips and longer travel times.
A critical phase of scenario making is the choosing of scenarios. In the worst case, a futures researcher creates scenarios according to his/her subjective views and cannot see the real quality of the study material. Oversimplification is a typical example of this kind of bias. In this study, an attempt towards a more data sensitive method was made using Finnish transport policy as an example. A disaggregative Delphi method as opposed to traditional consensual Delphi was applied. The article summarises eight Delphi pitfalls and gives an example how to avoid them. A two-rounded disaggregative Delphi was conducted, the panelists being representatives of interest groups in the traffic sector. Panelists were shown the past development of three correlating key variables in Finland in 1970–1996: GDP, road traffic volume and the carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic. The panelists were invited to give estimates of their organisation to the probable and the preferable futures of the key variables for 1997–2025. They were also asked to give qualitative and quantitative arguments of why and the policy instruments of how their image of the future would occur. The first round data were collected by a fairly open questionnaire and the second round data by a fairly structured interview. The responses of the quantitative three key variables were grouped in a disaggregative way by cluster analysis. The clusters were complemented with respective qualitative arguments in order to form wider scenarios. This offers a relevance to decision-making not afforded by a nonsystematic approach. Of course, there are some problems of cluster analysis used in this way: The interviews revealed that quantitatively similar future images produced by the panelists occasionally had different kind of qualitative background theory. Also, cluster analysis cannot ultimately decide the number of scenarios, being a choice of the researcher. Cluster analysis makes the choice well argued, however.
This paper uses a Delphi panel of 26 air transport experts to forecast the structure of air transport in the EU in 2015 in respect of network carriers, low cost airlines and passenger behaviour. Secondary research was used to construct a number of scenarios about the future structure and strategy of EU network and low cost airlines and also traveller behaviour. Consensus of opinions was sought amongst the panel in a two-round process. The consensus opinion of the Delphi experts was that; network carrier consolidation will reduce EU players to less than five, there will be only two or three large low cost carriers, Business Class products will disappear on short hauls, and leisure travellers will take an increasing number of multiple short-duration holidays.