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International Journal of Engineering Research and
Advanced Technology (IJERAT)
E-ISSN : 2454-6135
DOI: http://doi.org/10.31695/IJERAT.2018.3294
Volume.4, Issue 8
August -2018
www.ijerat.com Page 21
Journal Impact Factor: 2.145
Statistical Analysis of Fire Outbreaks in Homes and Public Buildings in
Nigeria: A Case Study of Lagos State
Adekunle A. Umanah I.I, Ibe K.E, and Imonikosaye M.Rukewe
Nigerian Building and Road Research Institute (NBRRI)
Ota, Nigeria
______________________________________________________________________________________
ABSTRACT
The fire has often been described as the greatest servant but the worst master difficult to control when it turns into a
conflagration, burning and destroying everything in its path. In the rage of its fury, it has no respect for anyone, not even the
monarchy. Buildings as infrastructure along with people’s lives need protection against fire outbreaks. Data on fatal fire
outbreaks in Lagos metropolis from2009 to 2014 were obtained from various rescue agencies in the state. Interviews were
conducted alongside the structured questionnaires administered to a good number of citizens of the state. A statistical tool
adopted in this research is the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS). The analysis made using the information from the
agencies consulted shows that most fatal fires in homes often start in a bed, sofa, other loose fittings or clothing. The homes where
fatal fires occur are rarely protected by smoke detectors. Fire death rates are higher for males than females and are also higher
for the elderly than for younger people. Most home fires attended by the firefighters are quite small. In blocks of flats, the most
common cause is a cooking appliance being left on. Arson is also a common cause in blocks of flats, though arson is most often
observed in stairwells and cellars and is rarely directed at living accommodation. Arson is the most common cause of fires in
public buildings. Several remedies were specified to alleviate fire outbreaks in homes and public buildings.
Keywords: Fatal fire, Public building, Statistics. Statistical Analysis.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
1. INTRODUCTION
Fire is the rapid oxidation of a material in the exothermic chemical process of combustion, releasing heat, light, and various
reaction products (Charles Jennings, 2000). Fires start when a flammable and/or a combustible material, in combination with a
sufficient quantity of an oxidizer such as oxygen gas or another oxygen-rich compound is exposed to a source of heat or ambient
temperature above the flash point for the fuel and is able to sustain a rate of rapid oxidation that produces a chain reaction (Yusuf
Olagbade, 2012). This is commonly called the fire tetrahedron. Fire cannot exist without all of these elements in place and in the
right proportions.
Figure 1.1: A figure showing all the elements causing fire
Adekunle A et. al., Statistical Analysis of Fire Outbreaks in Homes …
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DOI : 10.31695/IJERAT.2018.3294
Cases of fire outbreaks in the Lagos state have become a perennial problem. This is, indeed, worrisome. Generally, fires are
initiated with a single fuel object. The smoke produced from the burning object is transported by a smoke plume and collects the
upper portion of the space as a layer. The smoke plume also transports the heat produced by the fire into the smoke layer, causing
the smoke layer to increase in depth and also temperature [1]. This smoke layer radiates energy back to unburned fuels in the
space, causing them to increase in temperature. Fire spreads to other objects either by radiation from flames attached to the
originally burning item or from the smoke layer. As other objects ignite, the temperature of the smoke layer increases further,
radiating more heat to other objects [1]. In small compartments, the unburned objects may ignite nearly simultaneously. This
situation is called flashover. In large compartments, it is more likely that objects will ignite sequentially. The sequence of the
ignition depends on the fuel arrangement and composition and ventilation available to support combustion of available fuels [1].
Dry weather has been identified as the major cause of the recent spate of incidents while storing of petrol in living houses and
markets, careless disposal of cigarette stubs, adulterated fuel, power surge, electric sparks and illegal connection of electricity are
all sources of fire outbreaks.
Many people have faulted the responsiveness of fire services and emergency first responders in the country, who have been
reputed to always arrive late and without sufficient equipment to the scene of fire incidents. There have also been renewed calls
for the federal and state governments to adequately fund the fire department and emergency agencies, while the culture of insuring
properties is not imbibed by Lagos residents to mitigate the damage and misery of the misfortune [8].
According to experts, fire safety is considered to be dependent on: How individuals behave, how organizations behave, the
vulnerability of the people exposed to the fire, the fire properties of products, the technical fire safety in the building, the fire
service’s ability to respond to a fire.
Focusing on any one of these points and neglecting the others will lead to suboptimal safety [8].
Over recent decades public buildings have become larger and more complex. Fire compartments have increased greatly in size and
more people can be taken in than before. The great danger with fires in public buildings is if fire gases spread to corridors,
stairwells and other open spaces. This makes evacuation more difficult and allows the fire to spread to other parts of the building.
The rapid rate at which fires develop means that people often fail to realize how quickly they must respond to a fire. The division
of responsibility among those involved is also a problem. Visitors rely on those responsible for the activities in the building.
However, personnel in a building often lack proper training on how to deal with a fire. Fire protection in public buildings is
dependent on organizational factors and technical measures. The fire fighters play more important role for life saving in public
buildings than in homes. The early detection of any fire is clearly vital in public buildings. Education and information are also
important so that personnel can deal with a fire in the initial stage of development.
Historically, the very first disastrous fire occurred as far back as 587 B.C where the temple and city of Jerusalem were utterly
destroyed [7]. This tragic incident brought about loss of lives and properties. In 1906, the San Francisco earthquake and fire is
another major fire incident to be remembered. Not in history has a modern imperial city been so completely destroyed. San
Francisco went down the drain (World fire statistics report, 2001).
Among the first (primary) responders to fire outbreaks in Lagos state are: Lagos State Fire Services, Lagos state traffic
management authority ( LASTMA), Nigeria Security and Civil Defense Corps, Ministry of the Environment, Health Monitoring
Unit, Red Cross, Lagos State Environmental protection agency and the Power Holding Company of Nigeria. The Secondary
Responders are: National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), Emergency Service Department of General Hospitals, Julius
Berger Nig. Ltd, Nigerian and the Tertiary Responders are organizations such as: NEMA, United nation international children
emergency fund( UNICEF) and the world health organization( WHO).
The incessant cases of fatal fires in homes and public buildings in Lagos state resulting into loss of lives and property is the
encouraging reason to conduct this study. This paper is intended to conduct statistical analysis of fire outbreak in homes and
public buildings in Lagos State. The objectives are: a) to investigate fatal fires in homes and public buildings b) to investigate
room of origin, object of origin and causes of fires in buildings. c) To provide recommendations to curb fatal fires.
International Journal of Engineering Research And Advanced Technology, Vol.4, Issue 8, August-2018
www.ijerat.com Page 23
Index Copernicus Value (2016): I C V = 75.48
Figure 1.2: A Scene of fatal fire in Lagos
2.0. METHODOLOGY
The following four criteria are used to decide whether a fire and one or more victims should be included in the dataset:
The victims shall have died due to a fire or explosive combustion process.
The deaths must occur within a month of the event.
If a fire occurs as the result of a road accident then it must be clear that the victims were living when flames or fire gases
reached the body.
People who are already dead as a result of trauma from road accidents, electricity, illness, hanging or other events are
not included, even if the body afterwards was exposed to fire or an explosion.
2.1. Stages Of The Study
Visiting some locations of fire outbreak in Lagos state.
Visiting relevant agencies in Lagos state to obtain data on fire outbreaks in the state from 2009 to 2014.
Administering questionnaires and interviews on incidences of fire outbreaks within Lagos metropolis.
Performing statistical analysis using the information obtained.
Providing recommendations to curb the menace of fire outbreak in the state.
2.2 Data Presentation And Analysis
Table 2.2: Fatal fires by the number of deaths per fire, Lagos, 2009-2014
Source: Lagos State Fire and Safety services [3]
Number
killed in
fire
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
number
of fires
Proportion
of fatal
fires
1
95
95
102
116
103
193
704
93.7%
2
1
2
10
8
13
4
38
5.11%
3
2
1
2
1
6
0.8%
4
1
1
0.13%
5
1
1
0.13%
6
1
1
0.13%
Total
number
of fires
98
99
114
126
117
197
751
100%
Adekunle A et. al., Statistical Analysis of Fire Outbreaks in Homes …
www.ijerat.com Page 24
DOI : 10.31695/IJERAT.2018.3294
Table 2.2 show that the vast majority of fatal fires lead to only one death [5]. The fires with more than three fatalities recorded in
the database are all following road accidents. The table above illustrates how frequent fires with multiple deaths are.
Table 2.3: Number of fatal fires and fire deaths in building fires per building category, Lagos,
2014 and average for 2009-2014
Source: National Emergency management agency [5]
Number of fires
2014
Number of deaths
2014
Average number
of fires 2009-2014
Average number
of deaths 2009-
2014
Block of flats
19
19
35.0
37.0
Duplex
16
18
34.2
39.6
High rise building
5
5
3.6
3.8
Factory & Ware
house
2
2
4.0
4.4
Bungalow
1
1
6.0
6.0
Other public
building
2
3
2.4
2.8
Industrial building
1
1
1.2
1.4
Self contained room
1
1
3.4
3.4
Total
47
50
89.8
98.4
Table 2.3 above shows the number of fatal fires and fire deaths in different building categories. The majority of fatal fires occur in
homes [5].
Table 2.4: Number of fatal fires and fire deaths not in buildings per category, Lagos, 2014 and average for 2009-2014
Source: Nigeria security and civil defense corps [6]
Number of fires
2004
Number of deaths
2004
Average number of
fires
2009-2014
Average number of
deaths
2009-2014
Car
3
3
3.6
4.2
Ship/boat
0
0
0.6
1.4
Aircraft
0
0
0.2
0.2
Other road vehicle
3
3
1.8
1.8
Other
3
3
2.8
3.4
Total
9
9
9.0
11.0
A total of nine people died in other fires or explosive combustion processes in 2014. In two cases this was due to fireworks. In two
other cases elderly men died when they lost control of fires they had lit in the dry season to get rid of last year’s dead grass. This is
an indication that the rate of fire outbreak not in building category is much less than that of building category ([5].
Table 2.5: Number of fatal home fires per room of origin, Lagos, 2014 and average for 2009-2014
Source: Lagos State Fire and Safety services [3]
Room of origin
2004
Average 2000-2004
Living room
16
24.8
Bedroom
18
20.6
Kitchen
4
14.4
Corridor
2
2.1
Boiler room
1
1.0
Freestanding store house
1.0
Basement
0.6
International Journal of Engineering Research And Advanced Technology, Vol.4, Issue 8, August-2018
www.ijerat.com Page 25
Index Copernicus Value (2016): I C V = 75.48
Balcony
2
0.6
Bathroom/Toilet
1
0.4
Laundry room
0.2
Attic
0.2
Out of building
0.2
Store room
1
0.1
Chimney
0.1
Freestanding garage
0.1
Other
2.4
Unknown
3
11.2
Total
48
80
As shown in table2.5 above, the majority of fatal fires occur in the home. It is therefore worth studying these fires in more detail.
Three quarters of fatal home fires start in the living room, a bedroom or the kitchen [5].
Table 2.6: Number of fatal home fires per object of origin, Lagos, 2014 and average for 2009-2014
Source: Lagos state emergency management agency. [2]
Object of origin
2014
Average 2009-2014
Bed
13
18.0
Sofa, armchair
9
9.0
Other loose fittings
9
9.0
Cooker
3
7.4
Clothing
1
4.0
Flammable liquid
4
3.4
TV
1
1.8
Other electrical installation
1.6
Heating appliance
2
1.4
Fire place
1.0
Paper/cardboard
0.6
Smoke channel
0.2
Generating plant
0.2
Microwave-oven
0.2
Washing machine
0.2
Fridge/freezer
0.2
Stereo/video
0.2
Lamp bulb
0.2
Rubbish
0.2
Air-conditioner
0.2
Other
1
6.4
Unknown
13
24.0
Total
56
89.4
Table 2.6 above in most fatal home fires where an object of origin is identified – beds are the most common, followed by sofas,
other loose fittings, cookers and clothes [6].
Adekunle A et. al., Statistical Analysis of Fire Outbreaks in Homes …
www.ijerat.com Page 26
DOI : 10.31695/IJERAT.2018.3294
Table2.7: Number of fatal home fires per fire cause, Lagos, 2014 and average for 2009-2014
Source: Ministry of the Environment, Health Monitoring Unit [4]
Fire cause
Number of fires 2014
Average number of fires 2009-
2014
Electrical Technical fault
25
28.4
Heat transfer
2
9.0
Sparks
7
8.8
Gas cylinders
5
7.8
Arson
2
4.4
Cooking appliance left on
2
3.8
Candle
1
1.6
Power surge
1
1.2
Sparks
1
1.2
Lighted match
2
2.1
Others
2
5.0
Unknown
12
24.8
Total
62
98.1
Table2.7 above shows a fire cause identified in about 70 % of fatal home fires, with Electrical Technical fault being by far the
most common cause [6].
A fire in the home environment can develop rapidly and in a short space of time become life threatening, especially if the people
at risk are sleeping. It is clearly important for occupants to be made aware of any fire without delay. Fortunately in recent years
domestic smoke detectors have become cheap and readily available. Many fire fighters in the state work actively to promote
domestic smoke detectors in the belief that they will reduce fire deaths. It is therefore valuable to investigate smoke detectors’
function in fatal fires. Over the last six years, the fire investigators have observed the following results:
Table 2.8: Fatal home fires by smoke detector function, Lagos, 2009-2014
Source: Lagos State Fire and Safety services [3]
Percentage of fatal fires
No smoke detector present
61%
Smoke detector present and functioned
14%
Smoke detector present but failed to function
4%
Smoke detector present, function unknown
5%
Unknown whether smoke detector was present
16%
International Journal of Engineering Research And Advanced Technology, Vol.4, Issue 8, August-2018
www.ijerat.com Page 27
Index Copernicus Value (2016): I C V = 75.48
Figure 2.3: A bar chart showing percentage of fatal fires by smoke detector function
It is striking that such a large proportion of these homes were not protected by smoke detectors as indicated in table 2.8 and figure
2.3. It is clearly imperative to make efforts to increase smoke detector possession for homes at particular risk [6]. It can be claimed
that many of those who died might have been saved by smoke detectors, but it is important to note that in one in seven fatal fires,
someone dies despite a smoke detector functioning properly.
Table 2.9: Fire death rate per thousand populations by age group and sex, Lagos, 2000-2014
Source: Lagos State Fire and Safety services [3]
Age group
Male death rate
Female death rate
0-14
4.6
3.3
15-64
15,2
4.6
65+
41.1
21.7
Table 2.9 shows that children have the lowest death rates and elders the highest (Yusuf Olagbade, 2012). It is interesting to note
that the male age groups have a much higher rate than the corresponding female groups.
In order to learn more about fire deaths it is important to study the medical diagnosis of what actually led to the death. Fires can
cause different kinds of injuries - people can die as a result of burns sustained in a fire, they can be overcome by toxic fire gases or
they can die in other ways, for example when throwing themselves out of a high building in an attempt to escape from a fire. The
two dominating diagnosis in the cause of death register are “burns” and “toxic effects of carbon monoxide”. The proportions for
the different diagnoses are shown in the diagram below.
Figure 2.4: Medical diagnosis with fire as an external cause of death, Lagos, 2000-2014
Source: Ministry of the Environment, Health Monitoring Unit [4]
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
No smoke detector present
Smoke detector present and
functioned
Smoke detector present but
failed to function
Smoke detector present,
function unknown
Unknown whether smoke
detector was present
Series1
56%
14%
30%
Medical Diagnosis
Burns
Other diagnoses
Toxic effects of carbon
monoxide
Adekunle A et. al., Statistical Analysis of Fire Outbreaks in Homes …
www.ijerat.com Page 28
DOI : 10.31695/IJERAT.2018.3294
The main sources for information on home fires are statistics based on turn-out report forms from Lagos State Fire and Safety
services.
Many fires take place without the state fire services being called or a claim being made to an insurance company. The fire may
have been extinguished quickly by someone at the scene or gone out before it was discovered. The property owner may not have
bothered to take out insurance cover, or may decide not to make a claim, knowing that the compensation may not be worth the
bother as only costs over an excess are paid out.
The studied group was the Lagos state population from 18-79 years of age. A questionnaire was sent out to 2 000 people.
Figure 2.5: Source: questionnaire survey by Lagos State Fire and Safety services [3].
The surveys show that:
The Lagos State Fire and Safety services attend far fewer fires in homes than in public buildings [8]. One characteristic of fires
in public buildings is the serious threat that they pose – many people may be in the building and a significant proportion may not
be able to find their way around in the building. Another characteristic of fires in public buildings is the prevalence of arson. Fire
officers identify arson as the fire cause with a greater proportion of fires attended in public buildings than in other building
categories.
Table 2.91 Average number fires in public buildings attended by fire officers per year and most commonly identified fire
causes, Lagos, 2009-2014 Most common causes
Public
buildings
Number
Cause
%
Cause
%
Cause
%
Office
200
Arson
55
Technical fault
35
Cooking appliance
left on
10
Shop/boutiqu
e/market
150
Arson
62
Technical fault
18
Heat transfer
20
Industry
170
Technical fault
54
Arson
30
Heat transfer
16
Factory
120
Technical fault
48
Arson
40
Heat transfer
12
Restaurant/ni
ghtclub
115
Cooking appliance
left on
46
Technical fault
40
Heat transfer
14
Hotel/guest
house
110
Cooking appliance
left on
60
Heat transfer
30
Candle
10
Theatre/cine
ma/museum
108
Arson
68
Technical fault
20
Cooking appliance
left on
12
School
93
Arson
40
Technical fault
35
Child playing with
fire
25
Church
79
Arson
50
Technical fault
35
Heat transfer
15
Prison
74
Arson
45
Smoking
30
Technical fault
25
Hospital
60
Arson
55
Technical fault
35
Smoking
10
Motherless
54
Arson
52
Candle
10
Heat transfer
38
52%
18%
22%
8%
Questionare Report
not attended by fire
brigade and no insurance
payment
attended by fire brigade
but no insurance payment
attended by fire brigade
and insurance payment
not attended by fire
brigade but insurance
payment
International Journal of Engineering Research And Advanced Technology, Vol.4, Issue 8, August-2018
www.ijerat.com Page 29
Index Copernicus Value (2016): I C V = 75.48
home
Petrol station
44
Technical fault
60
Arson
15
Heat transfer
25
Airport
43
Technical fault
65
Arson
10
Heat transfer
25
Bank
41
Technical fault
59
Arson
10
Heat transfer
31
Stadium
38
Arson
45
Heat transfer
20
Technical fault
25
Source: Turn-out statistics, Lagos State Fire and Safety services [3].
Table 2.91 shows that the leading causes of fatal fires in public buildings are arson and Electrical Technical fault [8].
3.0. CONCLUSION
Empirically this research has shown that there is limited fire management capacity in public buildings, as far as public awareness
and availability of means and facilities are concerned. It has been observed that majority of fatal fires among other building
categories occur in homes. Also, three-quarters fatal home fires start in the living room, bedroom or kitchen. Beds, followed by
sofas are the most common object of origin in most fatal home fires.
A significant number of buildings considered were not protected by smoke detectors. Most common causes of fire outbreak in
public buildings are arson and technical fault while that of homes is technical fault. Children were found to have the lowest death
rates while elders the highest. The male age groups have a much higher rate than the corresponding female group. Burns due to
fires have 56% of all medical diagnosis compared to toxic effects of carbon monoxide with 30%. Training institutions have also a
major role to play in terms of knowledge dissemination against fire risks.
4.0 RECOMMENDATIONS
Measures to improve fire protection in homes
Information and education are deemed to be the most important measures. Increased awareness of fire by residents would
affect behavior and lead to greater care.
In homes early detection by smoke detectors is the most important measure. It is of course important that action is taken
once the fire is discovered - people should own fire extinguishers and be trained to handle them.
Education and training for school children is considered especially effective in raising fire awareness across the whole
population. Such education should be an obligatory part of all schooling.
Television, radio, internet, twitter and face book are media which should be used more to spread information on fire
protection in the state.
Fire fighters in the state should be empowered to respond quickly in cases of fire outbreak.
4.10 Measures to improve fire protection in public buildings
Education, training and information to raise awareness and cautiousness of occupants, employees and those responsible
for activities in a building
Education is the most effective measure to prevent fires in public buildings. This is important for the general public, but
even more essential for personnel. Both employees and company leaders need to understand fire risks.
Systematic self-auditing of fire prevention work. It is important to make it difficult for arsonists to target the building and
to check fire prevention in concealed spaces in the building.
The early detection of any fire is clearly vital in public buildings. Education and information are also important so that
personnel can deal with a fire in this phase - employees should be able to put out a fire at this stage.
It is important to have automatic fire alarms for early detection and equipment and training so that evacuation can start
and the fire be put out or its spread limited.
It is important to have a high level of fire safety in public buildings since otherwise visitors are exposed to danger. People
in the building have a right to expect that those who build or lead the activities there have considered the risk of arson
and taken measures to protect visitors from it.
The local fire authorities should develop their work with inspection and supervision so that better judgments can be
made.
The fire brigades must be well prepared for fires in public buildings since in certain situations they may be required to
help people escape from a fire.
Adekunle A et. al., Statistical Analysis of Fire Outbreaks in Homes …
www.ijerat.com Page 30
DOI : 10.31695/IJERAT.2018.3294
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[3] Olaoye Ahmed, “Fatal fires and Fire death in homes in Lagos State”, Lagos State Fire and Safety services, Vol.2, 91-120,
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[4] Olusegun A., Adesokan O., “An overview of the number of fires together with an estimation of their societal costs in Lagos”
Ministry of the Environment, Health Monitoring Unit, Vol.6, 86-98, (2014)
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