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Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
ELECTORAL POLITICS IN GHANA’S 4TH REPUBLIC (1992-2016) AND ITS
IMPLICATIONS ON FUTURE ELECTIONS.
By
Boakye Baffour Agyeman Prempeh
baffouragyemanboakye@gmail.com/bapboakye@st.ug.edu.gh
Department of Political Science
University of Ghana.
P.O. Box LG 64
Legon.
ABSTRACT
Seven successive democratic elections conducted in Ghana between 1992 and 2016 has resulted
in peaceful alternation of power between two major political parties; namely the New Patriotic
Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in what Huntington refers to as the
turn over test. Whiles this remains a major step in consolidating multiparty democracy and a
model for Africa,
Boafo-Arthur has argued that, “elections in most African countries remains very difficult to
predict due to several social factors like high levels of illiteracy, ethnic proclivities, religious
attachment and personalities” (Boafo-Arthur, 2006:1).
Looking at the electoral politics of Ghana since 1992, it would be observed that, different factors
has accounted to the electoral dynamics as well as electoral victories and defeats. Some political
pundits have attributed these dynamics to issues of ethnic bloc voting, Political power capture by
the two dominant political parties among other myriads factors.
This research paper investigates electoral dynamics of Ghana since 1992, the major determinants
of elections, some interesting established electoral traditions in Ghana and its implications on
future elections.
Keywords: Election, Alternation in Power, Democracy and Democratic consolidation, ethnic
bloc voting, Swing Regions.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
INTRODUTION
Elections largely remain a key criterion in the practice of democracy across advanced countries
and the democratization process of most developing countries. Elections is believed to emphasize
two elements of democracy –participation and competition. Even though elections, is not an end
in its self, it continually remains a means to an end because it provides the major blueprint for
democracies to thrive (Gyekye-Jandoh, 2014, Bratton 1999). O’Neil (2007) as cited in Gyekye-
Jandoh (2010) further posits that, elections ensure democratic peace and reduce the likelihood of
a democratic reversal, allows completion among elites and provide the platform for the public to
participate in the selection of their leaders. Finally, Elections provide a link between the
government and the governed as well as facilitates resource distribution (Ayee 2008; Chazan 1987;
Gyekye-Jandoh (2014) & Hayward 1987:16-17)
Successive democratic elections in Ghana from 1992-2016 have resulted in three peaceful transfers
of power in what Huntington (1991) describes as the “turn over test” between the major political
parties (in 2000&2008) as well as continuously improving the performance of its formal
institutions, notably the Electoral Commission (EC), the judiciary especially in the landmark case
of the 2012 presidential election petition and the security forces. Ghana achieved its third
alternation in power in 2016 when the Incumbent NDC handed over power to govern to the Nana
Akuffo led NPP to form a new government. The outcome of the 2012 parliamentary and
presidential elections and its aftermath judicial verdict according to schools of thought was hailed
by stakeholders, the national and international media and diplomatic missions as another step
forward in consolidating multi‐party democracy in Ghana and as a model for the whole of Africa.
These commendations from international observers according to some schools of thought were
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largely attributable to the fact that the core institution of modern liberal democracy system without
any form of aftermath confrontations or electoral violence.
Despite these praises from the international observers on the conduct of elections as a major
instrument of democracy, the proliferation of political party vigilante groups remains a major
setback in the democratization process Ghana. It is on record that, the inception of the 4th republic
has been marred with the activities of vigilante groups. The Centre for Democratic Development
(CDD-Ghana) report catalogues a number of them; Azorka Boys, Bolga Bull Dogs, Invincible
Forces, Bamba Boys and the Kandahar Boys. Other groups identified included Aluta Boys, Nima
Boys, Salifu Eleven, Zongo Caucus, Veranda Boys, Supreme, Mahama Boys, Delta Force, etc.
Most political party vigilante groups have been accused of fuelling violence as well as interrupted
electoral process either by snatching ballot boxes or creating chaos at electoral centres. It is record
that, most of their activities gains prominence whenever there is a change in Ghana. Ghana has
observed several instances where; some these groups have ousted some public officials with
legally entrenched offices. This according to some schools of thought is as a result of the “Winner-
takes-all politics” in Ghana. The Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO) 2017 report
indicates that, the justifications for the proliferation of such groups can be attributed to issues like
Mutual suspicion and mistrust among political parties, lack of trust in the security agencies, most
especially the Police Service among others. This situation is a major problem that disrupts the
democratization process of most African countries and when not checked, can escalate into
complex issue, impunity and disregard for the rule of law.
This This research paper investigates electoral dynamics of Ghana since 1992, the major
determinants of elections, strategies parties have used to win elections as well as some interesting
established electoral traditions in Ghana and its implications on future elections Methodologically,
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
this discussion is done within the framework of electoral history of Ghana since 1992, factors that
have accounted for electoral victories as well as defeats. The paper employs some established
electoral traditions as well as theories of voter behaviour and finally a conclusion is drawn with
the impacts of the contending issues on future elections and electoral politics in Ghana.
BRIEF ELECTORAL HISTORY OF GHANA’S 4TH REPUBLIC.
BACKGROUND
After more than a decade in office of the J.J Rawlings led Provisional National Defence Council
(PNDC) military regime, a consensus was reached to send Ghana back to a multi-party
constitutional rule in 1992. According to Frempong (2017), three major steps were followed in
1992 to return Ghana to a constitutional rule; namely, The April 1992 referendum held to adopt a
new constitution. It is record that, the PNDC tasked an established National Commission on
Democracy (NCD) to collate public opinion across the ten regions of Ghana. These views were
referred to the consultative assembly and was subsequently upheld to lift the ban on the formation
of political parties and to pave way for the presidential and parliamentary elections in November
and December 1992 respectively (Frempong, 2017:139-140). This led to the proliferation of some
political parties like the National Democratic Congress (NDC) metamorphosed PNDC led by JJ
Rawlings, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) led by a University professor and historian Professor
Albert Adu Boahen. Other contesting political parties included Peoples National Convention
(PNC), National Independence Party (NIP), People’s Heritage Party (PHP) and other minor parties
like the EGLE and NCP which later formed a coalition with the NDC ahead of the polls.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
TABLE 1: ELECTORAL VICTORIES AND DEFEATS SINCE 1992 BY PERCENTAGE
YEAR/
PARTY
1992
1996
2000
2000
R/O
2004
2008
2008
R/O
2012
2016
NPP
30.4%
39.6%
48.2%
56.9%
52.5%
49.1%
49.8%
47.7%
53.9%
NDC
58.3%
57.4%
44.5%
43.1%
44.6%
47.9%
50.2%
50.7
44.4%
Source: Frempong (2017) & Electoral commission of Ghana.
From table 1, the NDC led by J.J Rawlings is on record to have won the 1992 General elections
with a huge percentage of (58.3%) to form government even though, there were series of agitations
by the Opposition parties. The largest opposition then, New Patriotic Party accused the PNDC
which later metamorphosed to NDC to have rigged the elections. Interestingly, the came out with
a book “Stolen Verdict” which consisted of a compilation of alleged areas of electoral malfeasance
in support of their claim and later went ahead to boycott the parliamentary elections which was
held in December 1992. The NDC consolidated their victory to retain the seat of Government when
the won the 1996 General elections recording (57.4%) as opposed to that of the NPP (39.6%)
which was led by a new candidate John Agyekum Kuffour.
Interestingly, Ghana attained its first alternation in power in 2000 when the loosing candidate of
the NPP in the 1996 election; John Agyekum Kuffour won the second round of the election with
a whooping (56.9%) as opposed to (43.1%) from the incumbent NDC under the leadership of their
vice president John Evans Atta Mills. The NPP also retained the seat when the incumbent president
John Agyekum Kuffour won the 2004 general elections. Amazingly, Ghana attained what
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Huntington has described as the “Two-turn-over-Test” in 2008 when there was peaceful
alternation of power between the two major parties namely NDC &NPP. The NDC led by the same
candidate from 2004 election won the run-off of the 2008 elections with a slim margin of (50.2%)
as opposed to the incumbent’s (49.8%) who were presented a new flagbearer in the person of Nana
Addo Danquah Akuffo Addo who served as the Attorney General and Foreign Affairs Minister in
the John Agyekum led government between (2000-2008).
An incident that changed the electoral dynamics of Ghana occurred for the first time when the
sitting president John Evan Atta Mills lost his life due to a short ailment in July 2012. The sitting
vice president in the person of John Dramani Mahama was subsequently sworn as a substantive
President as the 1992 constitution of Ghana prescribes. The NDC retained John Mahama ahead of
the 2012 general election to compete with an old face from the NPP Nana Akuffo Addo who was
visiting “the shrine “for the second time. The NDC won the election by a slim margin of (50.7%)
but decision as to who won was later tested at the Supreme Court of Ghana when the aggrieved
NPP sort for justice in the famous 2012 election petition. The verdict of the court however affirmed
the earlier declaration made by the Electoral Commission of Ghana that, Candidate John Dramani
Mahama won the election. This according to some political pundits was a major step in
consolidating democracy in Ghana largely because, the aggrieved party resorted to the use of the
law court instead of violence. It is believed that, this major step by Nana Akuffo Addo was lauded
by both local and international actors and institutions as an excellent move. The NPP on this was
noted to had a defeat with a taste of victory because, the turn of events at the court brought to bear
some of the electoral anomalies and called for major electoral reforms the party was on the neck
of the Electoral Commission in the heat up to the elections.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
The political capital the NPP made out of the landmark election petition case is believed to have
aided the party to win the 2016 General elections. The NPP won with a whooping percentage of
(53.9%). This according to some political pundit marked the biggest political defeat the NDC has
ever experience with a loss margin of over 1 Million votes.
THEORIES AND DETERMINANTS OF VOTER BEHAVIOUR IN GHANA.
David Sills defines voting as a means of aggregating individual preferences into collective
decisions. It may also be seen as an official expression of one's choice among the possibilities
offered or suggested, usually by marking a piece of paper (a ballot) secretly, or by calling out or
raising one's hand. Zahida&Younis (2014) expands on the literature on voting to encapsulate the
means of expressing approval or disapproval of government decisions, the policies and programs
of various political parties and qualities of candidate who are engaged in struggle to get the status
of being the representatives of people.
The study of voter behaviour is believed to have had its long and vibrant history from 1940s when
a team of social scientist at the Columbia University led by Paul Lazarsfeld conducted a study into
it for the first time. Over the years, three main theoretical perspectives have been used to explain
voting behaviour. These include Sociological theory or the Columbia School Psychosocial or the
Michigan School and the Rational Choice perspectives. The sociological perspective shows that
long-held factors (social characteristics) such as socio-economic variables, religion, and location
are key determinants of voter behaviour. Lazarsfeld et al, posits that majority of people vote
according to their original political predisposition. The sociological model stresses the fact that
socio-economic and ethnic status is related to the process of the voter’s choice. Party identification,
ethnic and religious sentiments for some time have proven to be major determinants of the voter
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alignment under the sociological variables. With party identification for instance, core
sympathizers of a major political party will continue to vote for them at all times even if they don’t
have a message or more to offer the electorate. Religious and ethnic backgrounds is on record to
have also informed voter choices.
The Michigan school or the psychosocial model combines sociological and psychological to
explain the voter choice. It is believed that, the psychological needs of an individual can be
identified with a group or the collective, in this case political party. Erdmann (2007) believes party
identification shapes the evaluation of candidates, issues, and the expected capacity of parties to
solve problems.
The greatest approach in voter analysis that has been lauded by several political scientist
&behaviourists is the rational choice model. This model looks at voter behaviour from two
perspectives. These according Lindberg & Morison (2008) includes Evaluation and Non-
evaluation perspectives. Lindberg & Morison further asserts that “Whereas the evaluative voting
rationale is based on voters’ judgment of the performance of parties or representatives on policies
or universalistic public goods, non-evaluative perspective is driven by clientelistic voting based
on personal affective ties of patronage, family, clan, and ethnic considerations. When there is a
promise or implicit agreement about personal favours or goods to be exchanged in return for
political loyalty that a clientelistic relationship is established”. The rational choice model of voting
also thrives on critical analysis on what the policies of contesting political group and what they as
voters seeks to benefit directly from the group in case they win the elections.
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DETERMINANTS OF VOTER CHOICE IN GHANA
Factors
Frequency
Percent
Personality of the candidate
203
9.9
Ethnic background of the
candidate
27
1.3
Sex of the candidate
16
.8
Educational background of the
candidate
85
4.2
Human relation of the candidate
321
15.7
Regional background of the
candidate
9
.4
Religious affiliation of the
candidate
20
1.0
Political experience of the
candidate
81
4.0
Campaign message
425
20.8
Standard of living
61
3.0
Candidate can provide
employment
123
6.0
Candidate can fight corruption
97
4.8
Educational policy
264
12.9
Health policy
61
3.0
Gifts from candidates or party
14
.7
Candidate can develop my locality
61
3.0
The performance of the ruling
party
174
8.5
Total
2042
100
Source: Agomor and Adams (2014:6-7).
In ascertaining the factors that informs voter choice in Ghana, a survey by Agomor &Adams is
adapted to project how Ghanaians vote and why they do so. From the findings, it was observed
that, about 425 out of the 2042 respondents representing (21%) attested to the fact that, campaign
messages inform their choice in an election. Other key indicators included Human relations
(15.7%), Educational policy (12.9%), Performance in office (8.5%), Ethnic affiliation (1.3%) with
least being Sex of candidate, Gifts, Religious Affiliation.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
VOTER ATTITUDES.
DETERMINANTS
JULY 2007
MARCH 2008
POLITICAL
AFFILIATIONS
34.7%
26.8%
PERSONAL QUALITIES
OF THE ASPIRANT
60.5%
68.7%
ETHNICITY
4.7%
4.4%
Source: Adapted from Ben Ephson; countdown to elections 2008
Ephson (2008) argues that one of Ghana’s strongest assets has been the ethnic balance and lack of
deep seated ethnic animosities however, it will be ridiculous and perhaps a bit naïve, to perceive
that only few Ghanaians use ethnicity as a yardstick in deciding who to vote for in any organized
elections. To him, various researches over the past years have revealed that between (4%- 5%) of
Ghanaian voters use ethnicity as a basis for voting.
DE FACTO ELECTORAL TRADITION DYNAMICS IN GHANA’S FOURTH REPUBLIC
Ninsin in his introductory remarks on Issues in Ghana’s Electoral Politics (2016) posits that,
‘Ghana attained independence from Great Britain in 1957. Between that date and 1992 when a
new constitution came into force, she went through what may be described as an endless political
transition. An endless political transition is a process of political change, from one regime to
another, that is circuitous and endless’ (p.1). However, our quest for continuous democratic
consolidation was bedevilled with series of military takeovers. Since the inception of the fourth
republic, the electoral process has been characterized by some interesting de facto electoral
traditional dynamics. Some of these interesting established conventions includes; “the third term
Bug” in the presidential bid, sitting presidents not losing elections, only ‘Johns’ can be president,
women cannot be presidents among other interesting dynamics.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
Two-term limits
Several electoral traditions in Ghanaian politics have worked completely in favour of the two
major political parties namely, the NPP and NDC. One of these is the assumed two-term
presidential rotation between the dominant political parties in the country since the inception of
the Fourth Republic. The NDC under Jerry John Rawlings was in power from 1993-2000; NPP
under John Agyekum Kuffour from 2001-2008; NDC under Atta Mills/John Mahama from 2009-
2016). The NDC’s dilemma was having two candidates serving its de facto two terms rather than
just one candidate. However, candidate John Mahama was still qualified, constitutionally and as
an individual, to serve one more term; but the NDC as a party had exhausted its de facto Ghanaian
goodwill of two terms.
This conundrum played out during the 2016 General elections and significantly in the campaign
messages of the NDC where they were emphasizing Candidate Mahama serving just a term rather
than the party doing two terms. Campaigning this way in the view of participants in some of the
focus groups indirectly compromised and at best undermined the legacy of former President Mills
in order to portray Candidate Mahama as eligible for another term. The dilemma of projecting a
party that was going for a record-breaking third term against a candidate that was vying for an
acceptable precedent of a second term was not well managed by the NDC and its leadership. The
logic that was used by the NDC to convince Ghanaians to give Candidate Mahama another term
in office gave further impetus to the NPP to campaign for sympathy votes for their Candidate,
Akufo-Addo, who was contesting for the third time. Candidate Akufo-Addo had contested against
the late Candidate Mills in 2008 (who also won on his third term bid largely borne out of the de
facto two term limit and also on sympathy); then against Candidate Mahama in 2012 and 2016.
The outcome of the 2012 election and the conduct of candidate Akufo-Addo after the Supreme
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Court verdict won him admiration and respect, locally and internationally. Still fresh in the minds
of Ghanaians, they listened to the faint voice of candidate Akufo-Addo and his running mate Dr.
Mahamudu Bawumia who were pleading with the electorate for just a term rather than the NDC
that wanted three terms. The NPP got the sympathy vote that had helped the NDC and John
Mahama in the 2012 elections after President Mills had passed on.
The mystery of the two-term limit is built around voter turnout. Majority of the pre-election
surveys predicted either a win for the NDC or the NPP; suggesting and confirming the dominance
of these two political traditions in Ghana. Conclusively, established voter behaviour models,
sharpened by long held electoral customs in Ghana contributed to explaining the voter dynamics
of most previous elections as well as the recent 2016 general elections.
Sitting presidents don’t lose elections
Another interesting dynamic long held electoral tradition in Ghanaian politics has to do with sitting
president always winning elections. Since the inception of the 4th republic, it is on record that,
incumbent contesting presidents have always won their bid for second terms. Ghana upon
returning to a democratic state in 1992 elected President J. J Rawlings. He won his bid for a second
term in 1996 as a sitting president against the then opposition Candidate John Agyekum Kufuor
of the Great alliance which was made up of a coalition between the New Patriotic Party and some
other opposition parties. In 2000, Candidate John Agyekum Kufuor of the NPP was elected
president on his second bid for the presidency. He also succeeded in maintaining the seat in 2004
as an incumbent contesting candidate against the new flag bearer of the National Democratic
Congress (i.e. candidate John Evan Atta Mills who eventually won the seat in his third consecutive
bid; 2000, 2004 & 2008).
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
This trend however continued when there was an alternation of power between the NPP and the
NDC in 2008. The then candidate Mills of the NDC won the presidential slot on his third
consecutive bid. An interesting dynamic to this trend is what ensued during the 2016 general
elections. The defeat of the incumbent contesting president John Dramani Mahama in the 2016
presidential election truncated this long held tradition (i.e. Sitting presidents don’t lose elections).
Some political analysts have argued that, the NDC’s dilemma was the unfortunate death of their
candidate and sitting president (i.e. John Evans Atta Mills who won the presidential slot for the
party in the 2008 general elections). The then Vice-President John Dramani Mahama was sworn
in as the President upon the sudden departure of President John Evans Atta Mills.
President John Mahama in 2012 succeeded in securing the presidential slot on his first term bid as
the sitting president (i.e. continuation of the deceased President Mill’s term) but lost on his second
bid as a sitting president against Nana Addo Danquah Akuffo Addo of the NPP. This new
development marked the indication of truncation in this enviable long held tradition that tends to
favour sitting presidents.
Only “Johns” can govern Ghana
The fourth republican dispensation in Ghana also came with another interesting dynamics to the
electoral politics of Ghana. Interestingly, from the electoral chart, it is on record that individuals
with the name John happened to be elected as presidents since 1992. This interesting development
started with Flt.Lt. Jerry John Rawlings who was elected president from (1992-2000). John
Agyekum Kuffour also followed as president from (2000-2008). This tradition of only johns
governing gained prominence and conventionalized in 2008 when another candidate John Evans
Atta Mills also won the presidential slot but his reign was however short-lived because of his
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sudden demise in the mid-2012. With this scenario, another long held electoral tradition in the
country since the beginning of the Fourth Republic was institutionalized.
This tradition was once again deepened when former president John Dramani Mahama who was
sworn in to continue the term of his superior upon his demise also managed to secure and maintain
the presidential slot for the NDC in the 2012 presidential elections. This trend continued until the
2016 presidential election when this long held tradition was truncated. In the heat up to the 2016
general elections in Ghana, the National Democratic Congress (incumbent) was noted to have
made political capital from the Only “Johns” can govern Ghana against the main opposition
candidate of the NPP Nana Akuffo Addo who obviously was not called John. Some interesting
turn of events included the John 3:16 campaign dogma which was strictly adopted by the NDC.
This according to them signified the third john from their party and was also in line with the
biblical conceptions of the trinity. Interestingly, some party commentators of the NDC resorted to
mocking the main opposition leader of the NPP, Nana Akuffo Addo that, the only way he could
be president was to add “John” to his name. This long held tradition which had been in existence
for over a decade (i.e. from 2000-2012) got distorted by the then opposition candidate of the NPP
and now president Nana Addo Danquah Akuffo Addo when he won the December 2016 election
by a one-touch victory. Interestingly, this truncation in tradition according to some political
analysts and commentators has restored hope to the “non-Johns” who aspire to contest
presidential elections in Ghana.
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Only men can be Presidents
Currently, it is on record that,
The greatest litmus test of the amount of democracy
in a particular country is the gender parity. Countries
which currently have women leaders include
Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Britain, Belgium,
Netherlands, Denmark, Bangladesh, Germany,
Thailand, New Zealand, Finland, Philippines and
Liberia, among many others. In the past, we have had
women prime ministers and presidents and those
who hit the headlines include Golda Meir of Israel,
Indira Gandhi of India, Margaret Thatcher of Britain,
Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan, among many others.
Currently some prominent female Heads of state
includes Theresa May of the United Kingdom,
Angela Merkel of Germany among others. (retrieved
fromhttp://www.elleuk.com/life-and-
culture/news/a32938/nana-rawlings-the-first-
woman-to-run-for-president-in-west-africa/)
.
However, the case is not so in the African context. Most African societies in terms of public
leadership or office has experience the proliferation of males. In the electoral history of Ghana, no
female has ever won the presidential slot and this is a bit worrying looking at the major mark and
breakthroughs most women are making in other country with regards to public office. Osagyefo
Dr. Kwame Nkrumah in his bid to push for some form of affirmative action to bring more women
into politics introduced ten women into the legislative assembly through an unelective means.
Some political parties in their attempt to follow suit also came up policies to secure safe seat for
women who were contesting parliamentary primaries as well as reducing the fees of nomination
forms but all prove futile as some people strongly opposed and aborted the idea. The closest Ghana
got was in the 2016 elections when former first lady Nana Konadu Agyeman Rawlings decided to
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contest the presidential election on the ticket of the National Democratic Party (NDP) but faced
some challenges. She just like some other candidates were disqualified by the electoral
commission of Ghana were disqualified at some stage for multiple reasons, including suspected
forged signatures and incomplete or incorrect submission forms. She was later cleared to contest
by the electoral commission as the sole female candidate in the presidential race. Her abysmal
performance at the end only pointed to the fact that Ghanaians were not ready for a female leader.
This litmus test in the 2016 election and also being it the first time ever a woman contested for
the precedency in a way has validated a long held tradition or convention that, Ghana remains a
patriarchal society or country that believes that only men can be presidents.
Demarcation of constituencies
Another interesting established electoral history in Ghana has to do with the history behind the
demarcation of electoral boundaries. Kwaku Asare in his article “The Constitutional History of
the Number of Constituencies” argued that,
Ghana has experimented with different approaches
to determining the number of constituencies. The
approach used in 1957 and 1969 according to him,
imposes a cap on the number of constituencies.
However, the 1960, 1979 and 1992 models he
believes had no ceilings on the number of
constituencies, creating an avenue for mischiefs of
the type that we saw in 2003 and again 2012.
(Seehttps://www.ghanaweb.com//GhanaHomePage/N
ewsArchive/The-Constitutional-History-of-the-Number-
of-Constituencies-249847 accessed on 29/10/2017).
For some time now, most governments have been accused of gerrymandering in their attempts to
create more constituencies. This raises the central question as to whether the President, in the
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exercise of the constitutional powers conferred on him to create districts should do so or direct the
Electoral Commission to make recommendations as it considers appropriate for that purpose.
Ghana took off with a range of (104-130) constituencies in 1957, (not less than 104 and the
speaker) and ten special seats for women in 1960, (not less than 198) in 1965 and (140-150) in
1969. The article 75(1) of the 1979 constitution also made room for up to 140 constituencies. The
1992 constitution is noted to have entrenched a similar provision to allow the existence of not less
than 140 constituencies. This according to some pundits does not give a clear policy direction nor
specifies the number of constituencies we need as a country to function properly with regards to
representation and legislative operations as a whole. It is believed that, the vagueness with regards
to the exact number of constituencies has posed problems for us as a country. Governments by
governments are noted to have capitalized on this constitutional provision to pursue their own
political agenda. Most governments since the inception of the fourth republic have resorted to
creating more district assemblies under the pretence of promoting grass root democracy and
development. These districts when created obviously bring in the electoral commission in to carve
more constituencies from the newly created districts. Ghana went into the 2000 polls with 200
constituencies but had about 30 more somewhere 2003. So in the run-up to the 2004 general
elections, Ghana had about 230 constituencies.
This according to smith (2011, p.3) although was relatively smooth, the ultimate rationale the EC
relied upon to increase the number of parliamentary seats remain problematic. This is because he
further argued that, the EC’s decision to tie additional parliamentary seats to the country’s
administrative districts has serious negative ramifications from both a representational and a
political standpoint. Following the release of the 2010 Census figures by the Ghana Statistical
Service on May 31, 2012, and the subsequent creation of 46 new districts by the Ministry of Local
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Government and Rural Development according to CODEO’s 2013 report compelled the Electoral
Commission on July 17, 2012 to submit to Parliament, a Constitutional Instrument (C.I. 73) which
sought to re-demarcate the constituency boundaries of Ghana and increase the number of
constituencies from 230 to 275. Interestingly, re-demarcation of electoral boundaries is gradually
or as perceived by some people have become a ritual the country has to embark on in the run-up
to every general election.
ANALYSIS ON SWING REGIONS IN GHANA
Elections in Ghana over the years has followed several patterns in determining which party acquire
or maintain political power to steer the affairs of the nation. Some regions in Ghana per their
pattern of voting over the years have earned the enviable accolade of being referred to as the ‘the
swing regions’ and have become a major force in determining election outcomes in Ghana.
Fridy (2012) argues that, some voters by definition are not particularly aligned to a particular party
but however votes on multiple appeals made to them. The analysis of the 1996, 2000 and 2008
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
elections in Ghana portrays that out of the ten existing regions, four of them continually to swing
or switch camps of voting every eight years. These regions include the Brong Ahafo, Greater
Accra, Western and the Central regions. The elements of swing voting has evidently been
portrayed in most elections in Ghana especially the 2000, 2008, and quite recently the 2016 general
elections. These four core regions due to their major role in determining the outcome of most
elections have earned the enviable accolade of being referred to as the king makers. For instance,
the Greater Accra region since 1992 has repeatedly voted for the party that wins the elections. The
Western region on other hand is being described as the region that follows its sister region the
Central region in voting in a particular direction. The voting patterns of these four regions is
outlined below.
Voting Pattern in the Four Swing Regions of Ghana
Region
2000
2008
2008R/o
2012
2016
Accra
NPP
NDC
NDC
NDC
NPP
Brong
NPP
NPP
NDC
NDC
NPP
Central
NPP
NDC
NDC
NDC
NPP
Western
NPP
NPP
NDC
NDC
NPP
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
EMERGING ISSUES AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON FUTURE ELECTORAL POLITICS
The electoral dynamics of every country in one way or the other contributes to the outcome of
future elections either positively or negatively. Despite the long existence of the 1992 constitution
and its associated success, Ghana for some time experienced some challenges in our quest for
democratic consolidation. Some of these new development includes the 2012 election petition, the
proliferation of political party vigilante groups, Creation of new regions and its impacts on the
electoral dynamics of Ghana.
THE PROLIFERATION OF VIGILANTE GROUPS
The democratic consolidation of Ghana has also been marred with recent activities of party
vigilante groups in Ghana. As already raised in the introduction, The Centre for Democratic
Development (CDD-Ghana) report catalogues a number of them; Azorka Boys, Bolga Bull Dogs,
Invincible Forces, Bamba Boys and the Kandahar Boys. Other groups identified included Aluta
Boys, Nima Boys, Salifu Eleven, Zongo Caucus, Veranda Boys, Supreme, Mahama Boys, Delta
Force, etc who recently have been accused of fueling violence as well as interrupted electoral
process either by snatching ballot boxes or creating chaos at electoral centres. Looking at the
political terrain in Ghana now, it is the norm or order of the day now for these political vigilante
groups to indulge themselves in violent activities to suit their political pay masters. The norm for
some time now has to do with the whole notion of “Winner-takes-all politics” where the party that
emerges victorious in an election claims ownership of all state assets.
Just after the recent 2016 General elections in Ghana, some party faithful, members as well as
some members of the Security Task force of the New Patriotic Party called Delta Force was on
record to have gone on rampage with the intentions of ceasing all ceasing all public assets from
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
members of National Democratic Congress which lost the election to the NPP. This according
some political analyst was a retaliation of what some members of the National Democratic
Congress did when they won the 2008 General election. The Coalition of Domestic Election
Observers (CODEO) 2017 report indicates that, the proliferation of such groups can be attributed
to issues like Mutual suspicion and mistrust among political parties, lack of trust in the security
agencies, most especially the Police Service among others. This situation is a major problem that
disrupts the democratization process of most African countries and when not checked, can escalate
into complex issue, impunity and disregard for the rule of law.
THE 2012 ELECTION PETITION AND ITS IMPACTS
Ghana’s democracy and institutions were tested to the core following the 2012 election petition
case in Nana Addo Danquah Akuffo Addo vs the Electoral Commission of Ghana with other
respondents being Ex -President John Dramani Mahama and the National Democratic Congress.
Following the defeat of the NPP in the 2012 General election, the party filed a petition at the
Supreme Court of Ghana praying the court to nullify the election results. When the verdict that
came on the 29th August, 2013 however, upheld the Ex-President John Dramani Mahama’s victory
in the 2012 general elections. However the chief petitioner accepted the verdict even though, the
verdict was not totally accepted. The then Candidate Nana Akuffo Addo and now President as a
result of his composure won the admiration both local and international actors and institutions.
This landmark case set precedent for future situations.
In the words of Okofo Dartey (2013) in relation to the 2012 election petition,
I trust that in the 2016 presidential and parliamentary
elections and beyond, no political party after losing
an election will turn to the undignified act of inciting
violence but will rather the emulate the NPP by
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
allowing the laws of the land to be their defenders. I
dream of an era where Ghana’s political maturity will
put our political paranoia to rest and that voters can
cast their votes and go home with the hope the
elections will be free and fair.
See,
https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Post-
2012-presidential-election-petition-reflections-284148 retrieved on
22/06/18.paragraph 4.
The Frederich Ebert Stiftung report on the 2016 Election argues that,
The 2012 election petition and its aftermath brought
to the fore critical election related matters that
merited the consideration of the Electoral
Commission, political parties, Civil Society groups
and the Supreme Court. The call for electoral reforms
therefore brought about the implementation of
fourteen (14) non legal and legal recommendation.
The Electoral Commission also undertook self-
introspection and presented to the voting public a
five year strategic plan and communication strategy
to anchor the drive towards delivering free, fair and
world class elections to the people of Ghana (FES
2017, p.1).
These pronouncements goes a long way to affirm the positive impacts of the 2012 election petition
to the democratic consolidation because it tested on of Ghana’s democratic institutions as well as
brought electoral reforms to the electoral process in Ghana.
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
THE CREATION OF NEW REGIONS AND IT’S IMPACTS ON FUTURE ELECTIONS.
The Gold Coast consisted of three regions: Ashanti, Gold Coast colony, and Northern Territories
protectorate around the 1900s. Trans Volta Togoland became affiliated with Gold Coast in 1922
and officially became part of Gold Coast on 13/12/1956.The Gold Coast colony (capital Accra)
was later split into Eastern and Western regions. Northern Territory protectorate and northern
part of Trans-Volta Togoland trust territory became Northern region; remaining part of Trans-
Volta Togoland, plus Anlo and Tongu local council areas of Gold Coast colony, became Volta
region. On 04/04/1959, The Ashanti region was split into Ashanti and Brong-Ahafo regions.
Northern region of Ghana was also split into Northern and Upper regions in 1960 whereas the
Western region split into Western (capital Sekondi) and Central (capital Cape Coast) on July
1970. From 1902 the old Northern Territory was a British protectorate until 1960 when it was
separated into the Northern and Upper Region. The Upper Region was later apportioned into
Upper East and Upper West in 1983 making Ten (10) regions in all during the PNDC rule. See
http://www.ghana.gov.gh/index.php/about-ghana/regions , http://www.statoids.com/ugh.html
(23/6/2018).
According to the New Patriotic Party and some political analyst, the rants new regions has been
driven by factors such as
Uneven Developments within the Regions and across the country,
Political and Cultural Hegemony, Development Policy Failures and the
Poor Policy Prescriptions to Same. Political gerrymandering, Practical
Administrative Difficulties, Desire for Equitable Representation in
National Affairs, Real or Perceived Dominance of one or more groups in
Regional affairs to the Real or perceived neglect of the other(s), Practical
Geographical difficulties and Historical Suspicions among others.
Retrieved from http://ghananewsonline.com.gh/creation-additional-
regions-ghana-matters-arising/ 22/6/2018.
However, some sections of Ghanaians particularly the opposition National Democratic Congress
has expressed concerns with the creation of new region as they believe. A legal practitioner based
in the USA Prof. Kwaku Asare eventhough has expressed some support for the creation of these
proposed regions had some reservations. Prof. Asare argued that,
The petitions are based on the false assumption that
the mere creation of regions will accelerate
development, improve governance and alleviate
poverty in the newly created regions. Secondly, the
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
petitioners do not show the financing or planning
models that justify their optimism. Rather, they
implicitly assume that there is a pot of unused funds
that would become immediately available for the
development of the newly created regions.
Furthermore, as a constitutional matter, there is no
basis for a referendum because there has not been a
showing that there is substantial demand for the
creation of new regions. Also, the question of who is
entitled to vote in a referendum to create a new
region is a complicated question of law.
The threshold for creating regions is appositely high
to avoid opportunistic creation of regions that
ultimately confers benefits to a few and imposes cost
on the many. Thus far, the petitioners have not
indicated how the creating of new regions will affect
the other regions, especially the ones that are being
carved out.
New regions are costly. At a minimum, each must
have the full panoply of constitutionally mandated
agencies and other government departments —
Prison Service, Division of Health Services, Division
of Social Welfare, etc. These are substantial costs
that would only worsen the budgetary and
infrastructural deficits.
Creating new regions worsens our insular
proclivities as well as dilute the vested interests of
the other regions while accreting those of the split-
regions. The dilutive impact will trigger an endless
cycle of petitions to create even more regions, which
will lead to a slippery slope to the well-known
tragedy of commons.
Retrieved from
http://www.rainbowradioonline.com/index.php/general-news/item/12310-there-ii-be-more-
dilution-with-creation-of-new-regions-lawyer-petitions-commission Accessed on 25/6/2018.
The major opposition party National Democratic Congress have kicked against the whole idea of
the creation new regions by the Incumbent New Patriotic Party. From a conspiratory view, the
NDC believes, the whole idea is a ploy by the incumbent to consolidate their political gains in
certain parts of Ghana. For instance, the NDC has openly kicked against the division of the Volta
region which from electoral statistics happens to be their ‘World Bank’ into Volta and Oti region
will change the voting patterns and dynamics of some of the proposed areas where the new regions
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
will be created. Some political analysts have argued that, the division of the Upper region into
Upper East and Upper West by the NDC in 1983 benefited the party politically. Electoral statistics
from elections since has projected support for the NDC from these two region since division of the
region.
CONCLUSION
This research paper has outlined major electoral history, voting trends as well as patterns. Some
theories of voting as well as the various was determinants of voter behaviour in Ghana was
examined and it came out clear that, some section of Ghanaians act socially when making political
choices. This from the research paper includes social proclivities like religion, ethnicity, and
political affiliation among others. Rationally, some voters in Ghana also considers or activates the
rational choice model in voting. This includes, scrutiny of political message or manifestoes to
inform political choice, performance of previous government and others rational indicators. Some
established electoral traditions which has influence the electoral politics of Ghana since 1992
includes the ethnic bloc voting, the JOHN syndrome, and the notion of sitting presidents among
other interesting dynamics which has influence on the outcome of elections in Ghana. The research
paper concluded on emerging issues and its impacts on future electoral politics in Ghana. These
included, the proliferation of political vigilante groups, the creation of new regions and the impacts
of the 2012 election petition on the 2016 general elections and other future elections. These factors
among other myriad factors has shaped the electoral politics over the years and continue to have a
bearing on the outcome of elections in Ghana. The onus however lies on the major political parties
to strategize in their political mobilisation
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3202431
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