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Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Analysis

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Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the first major dam in the Blue Nile (Abay) River of Ethiopia. GERD is a combination of 175 m high roller compacted concrete gravity dam and a 50 m high concrete faced rock fill saddle dam under construction by Ethiopia. The gravity dam is built across the natural course of the Blue Nile River and the saddle dam provides the design storage and water level due to the relatively low relief of the dam site. The dam is being built at the most downstream site of one of the four potential dam sites proposed by a 1964 feasibility study of the Blue Nile basin development conducted by United States Bureau of Reclamation. The dam has been under construction since 2011 with 70% completed at the beginning of 2018. The installed power generation capacity of 6,000 MW is expected to be generated by 16 Francis Turbines each with 375 MW capacity located at the foot of the main dam. The design flow rate of 4305 m³ s⁻¹ is about 3 times the average flow. At the average flow rate, the expected average annual energy production is 15,700 GWH. The suitability of the dam site, dam design, major components and operations are discussed.

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... The Ethiopian highlands produce 80% of the river's flow during the raining seasons which is deposited in the Blue Nile (Swain, 2011). The rights to the water of the Nile River have been highly contentious and can be understood by dividing history into three periods: pre-colonial, colonial, and post-colonial (Abtew & Dessu, 2019). ...
... In 1902, they signed the Anglo-Ethiopian Treaty with the Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II which forbade them from conducting any construction on the Blue Nile that would impede the flow of water to Egypt and Sudan. In 1929, an agreement was concluded between Egypt and the British Crownknown as the "Nile Agreement"regarding the utilization and limit of water usage along the Nile River, and even gave Egypt veto powers over construction projects on the Nile River or any of its tributaries in an effort to minimize any interference with the flow of water into the Nile (Abtew & Dessu, 2019). ...
... In the meantime, Sudan started construction of the Roseires in 1966 (Kitissou, 2004). During this period the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was signed in 1999 with a declared goal forming a 1939-6104-21-S4-43 cooperative platform between the riparian states to discuss equitable distribution of water (Abtew & Dessu, 2019). In the past decade the intergovernmental initiative has registered commendable achievements among its member states in terms of maintaining a cooperation platform "generating knowledge and tools as well as building capacity to enable informed decision making on the management and development of the shared River Nile as well as preparing investment projects that contribute to water, food and energy security" (Rutagwera, 2019). ...
Article
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The following research is interested in analyzing the communicated political and legal reverberations of Ethiopia announcing in 2011 the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the unilateral filling of the reservoir in July 2020 by ignoring the social consequences resulting from such unethical policy on Egyptian and Sudanese citizens. The primary question accenting the research paper is concerned in deconstructing how a realist approach to International Relations communicated by Ethiopia aggravates reaching a cooperative solution prioritizing the well-being of all parties in managing water scarcity. Since Ethiopia prefers adopting a realpolitik approach disregarding mutual cooperation reflecting ethical considerations between Egypt and Sudan, the research proceeds in revealing the attitude of Egyptian politicians and intellectuals through data obtained from 225 respondents (p=225) answering particular questions (i.e., preferred solution to the crisis and preferred news channel discussing GERD), including an analysis of Sky News and Alhurra news frames-between January 2020 until January 2021-emphasizing either "negotiation", "intervention", or "internationalization" as solution to the GERD crisis. The research concludes by stressing that a realist approach to foreign relations informed by positivist law protracts the crisis since it necessitates framing parties involved using a self-other binary for ontological security thereby characterizing parties using a frame fueling a "cultural (security) dilemma" instead of prioritizing a principle of cultural cooperation.
... The Blue Nile Basin is particularly prone to soil erosion by water. It is subject to heavy erosive rains falling in a short period on steep slopes (Abtew and Dessu, 2019;Conway, 2000) and intensive farming systems (Haileslassie et al., 2009;Mwendera et al., 1997), as well as experiencing increasing population and land cover changes (Bogale, 2020;Ebabu et al., 2019). However, previous studies have focused on soil erosion in terms of plot scales (Herweg and Ludi, 1999;Subhatu et al., 2017), small watersheds (Gashaw et al., 2020;Yesuph and Dagnew, 2019), or the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin only . ...
... The Blue Nile Basin (Fig. 1a) covers an area of 308,474 km 2 shared between the Upper Blue Nile Basin (also well known as Abay Basin) in Ethiopia (200,788 km 2 ) and the Lower Blue Nile Basin in Sudan (107,686 km 2 ). The Blue Nile River is the main contributor of flow to the Nile River, supplying about 60-66% of the flow reaching the Aswan Haigh Dam (AHD) (Abtew and Dessu, 2019;Wagena et al., 2016). The Blue Nile Basin has been characterized by two distinct climatic zones (Sutcliffe, 2009): the humid Ethiopian highlands (mainly in the Upper Blue Nile Basin) and semi-arid South-East Sudan (mainly in the Lower Blue Nile Basin). ...
Article
Assessment of soil loss and understanding its major drivers are essential to implement targeted management interventions. We have proposed and developed a Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation framework fully implemented in the Google Earth Engine cloud platform (RUSLE-GEE) for high spatial resolution (90 m) soil erosion assessment. Using RUSLE-GEE, we analyzed the soil loss rate for different erosion levels, land cover types, and slopes in the Blue Nile Basin. The results showed that the mean soil loss rate is 39.73, 57.98, and 6.40 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the entire Blue Nile, Upper Blue Nile, and Lower Blue Nile Basins, respectively. Our results also indicated that soil protection measures should be implemented in approximately 27% of the Blue Nile Basin, as these areas face a moderate to high risk of erosion (>10 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). In addition, downscaling the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data from 25 km to 1 km spatial resolution significantly impacts rainfall erosivity and soil loss rate. In terms of soil erosion assessment, the study showed the rapid characterization of soil loss rates that could be used to prioritize erosion mitigation plans to support sustainable land resources and tackle land degradation in the Blue Nile Basin.
... The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is located in Ethiopia on the Blue Nile several kilometers upstream from Ethiopia's border with Sudan and is slated for completion within the next few years (Abtew and Dessu 2019;Zhang et al. 2016). The GERD build site was one of four initially identified in the 1960s during a U.S. Bureau of Reclamation survey (Reclamation 1964). ...
... The Blue Nile Basin accounts for about 58-62% of the entire Nile River water supply (Liersch et al. 2017). Flow data from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia for the Blue Nile at the Sudanese/Ethiopian border have a historical mean annual flow of ~ 50 Gt where ~ 80% of the inflow occurs in July through October (Abtew and Dessu 2019;Abtew et al. 2009;Melesse et al. 2014). ...
Article
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Increased demand for power generation coupled with changing seasonal water uncertainty has caused a worldwide increase in the construction of large hydrologic engineering structures. That said, the soon-to-be-completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will impound the Blue Nile River in Western Ethiopia and its reservoir will encompass ~ 1763 km2 and store ~ 67 Gt (km3) of surface water. The impoundment will undergo maximum seasonal load changes of ~ 28 to ~ 36 Gt during projected seasonal hydroelectric operations. The GERD impoundment will cause significant subsurficial stresses, and could possibly trigger seismicity in the region. This study examines Coulomb stress and hydrologic load centroid movements for several GERD impoundment and operational scenarios. The maximum subsurficial Coulomb stress applied on optimally oriented fault planes from the full impoundment is ~ 186 kPa and over 30% of our model domain incurs Coulomb stresses ≥ 10 kPa, regardless of the impoundment period length. The main driver behind Coulomb stress and load centroid motion during impoundment is the annual, accumulated daily reservoir storage change. The maximum Coulomb stresses from the highest amplitude season of five long-term operational scenarios are around 36, 33, 29, 41, and 24% of the total maximum stresses from the entire GERD impoundment. Variations in annual Coulomb stresses during modeled GERD operations are attributed to the seasonal load per unit area, and partially to the initial seasonal water level. The spatial patterns and amplitudes of these stress tensors are closely linked to both the size and timing of GERD inflow/outflow rates, and an improved understanding of the magnitude and extent of these stresses provides useful information to water managers to better understand potential reservoir triggered seismic events from several different operational and impoundment strategies. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12665-021-09591-w.
... The GERD has been reviewed by an International Panel of Experts (IPoE, 2013) from Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The IPoE acknowledged the unavailability of complete design documents and test data required to critically review the project design (Abtew and Dessu, 2019). Such data sharing is a common hurdle in transboundary basins and complicates technical feasibility or review studies for hydro projects through international cooperation. ...
... The derived area elevation curve [Fig. 1(d)] is very close to what has been published by the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo, 2019).In addition,Eldardiry and Hossain (2020) showed the reasonable skill of satellite-based AEC of the GERD when compared with those published in previous studies(Abtew and Dessu, 2019). ...
Article
One of the largest hydropower projects in Africa is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is currently under construction in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin in Ethiopia. The GERD has been billed as a hydropower project that will significantly improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and neighboring countries with a total capacity of 5150 MW. This paper evaluates the hydrological potential of the UBN basin for meeting the declared hydropower production design from the GERD. Our investigation indicated that the hydrology of the UBN can sustain the inflow to the GERD that would produce 13 629 GWh per annum (capacity factor = 0.30). Investigations further revealed that the GERD operation in the current design configuration will likely result in eight (out of 14) idle turbines every year. Our study also demonstrated that current GERD capacity (5150 MW) is more reasonable than previous designs (e.g., 6000 and 6450 MW).
... The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile is located in Ethiopia about 15 km upstream (east) of the Sudanese border and is set to be complete in the next several years [1,2]. The initial GERD site itself was one of four identified during a survey in the 1960s by the United States Bureau of Reclamation [3]. ...
... In order to accomplish this task, we seek to answer the following questions: (1) What are the areal extents, reservoir volumes, and hydrologic loads from potential scenarios of long-term reservoir operation and multi-year reservoir filling schedules? (2) What are the modeled elastic flexural responses as caused by hydrologic loading variations from long-term reservoir operations and multi-year reservoir filling schedules at the GERD? We utilize digital surface models (DSMs) and hydrologic inputs from several filling and operational scenarios to answer (1), and we use those results along with a localized Earth model to compute the elastic displacements for each of the scenarios in order to answer (2). ...
Article
Full-text available
Addressing seasonal water uncertainties and increased power generation demand has sparked a global rise in large-scale hydropower projects. To this end, the Blue Nile impoundment behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will encompass an areal extent of ~1763.3 km2 and hold ~67.37 Gt (km3) of water with maximum seasonal load changes of ~27.93 (41% of total)—~36.46 Gt (54% of total) during projected operational scenarios. Five different digital surface models (DSMs) are compared to spatially overlapping spaceborne altimeter products and hydrologic loads for the GERD are derived from the DSM with the least absolute elevation difference. The elastic responses to several filling and operational strategies for the GERD are modeled using a spherically symmetric, non-rotating, elastic, and isotropic (SNREI) Earth model. The maximum vertical and horizontal flexural responses from the full GERD impoundment are estimated to be 11.99 and 1.99 cm, regardless of the full impoundment period length. The vertical and horizontal displacements from the highest amplitude seasonal reservoir operational scenarios are 38–55% and 34–48% of the full deformation, respectively. The timing and rate of reservoir inflow and outflow affects the hydrologic load density on the Earth’s surface, and, as such, affects not only the total elastic response but also the distance that the deformation extends from the reservoir’s body. The magnitudes of the hydrologic-induced deformation are directly related to the size and timing of reservoir fluxes, and an increased knowledge of the extent and magnitude of this deformation provides meaningful information to stakeholders to better understand the effects from many different impoundment and operational strategies.
... The area-elevation curve was established for the two reservoirs (i.e., lakes of HAD and GERD) Eldardiry and Hossain (2019) and ElBastawesy (2014), respectively). The satellite-driven curves (both Area-Elevation and Volume-Elevation curves) were compared with those published in previous studies (Abtew and Dessu, 2019;Basheer et al., 2020 for GERD) and (Husrt et al., 1966;Moussa, 2018 for HAD). Our comparison shows robust skill to infer the reservoir volume at different elevations for GERD and HAD with a mean percentage error of 7% (compared to Basheer et al., 2020) and 9% (compared to Husrt et al., 1966), respectively. ...
... The current design of GERD is to supply a storage at an elevation of 640 m (Full Supply Level) with a corresponding capacity of 74 km 3 . The main dam is supported by a rock-fill saddle dam (to the west of the GERD) to provide the storage between 606 m and 640 m (Abtew and Dessu, 2019). The GERD is planned to have 16 turbines with a total capacity of 5150 MW, making it the largest hydropower dam in Africa and it is likely to bring significant improvements to the electricity access for the entire Nile (MIT 2014). ...
... Data scarcity in the basin hampered understanding of the climate and hydrological processes that is required for sustainable water resource management. Reliable climate information is the basis for developing a climate-resilient system and intervention mechanisms to minimize the vulnerability of the region to various climatic risks [14]. Currently, Ethiopia is constructing the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam over the UBNB which requires research based adequate future climate effects of the dam and the basin [15][16][17]. ...
Article
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Climate predictions using recent and high-resolution climate models are becoming important for effective decision-making and for designing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Due to highly variable climate and data scarcity of the upper Blue Nile Basin, previous studies did not detect specific unified trends. This study discusses, the past and future climate projections under CMIP6-SSPs scenarios for the basin. For the models’ validation and selection, reanalysis data were used after comparing with area-averaged ground observational data. Quantile mapping systematic bias correction and Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to evaluate the trends of selected CMIP6 models during the 21st century. Results revealed that, ERA5 for temperature and GPCC for precipitation have best agreement with the basin observational data, MRIESM2-0 for temperature and BCC-CSM-2MR for precipitation were selected based on their highest performance. The MRI-ESM2-0 mean annual maximum temperature for the near (long)-term period shows an increase of 1.1 (1.5) °C, 1.3 (2.2) °C, 1.2 (2.8) °C, and 1.5 (3.8) °C under the four SSPs. On the other hand, the BCC-CSM-2MR precipitation projections show slightly (statistically insignifi�cant) increasing trend for the near (long)-term periods by 5.9 (6.1)%, 12.8 (13.7)%, 9.5 (9.1)%, and 17.1(17.7)% under four SSPs scenarios.
... This is most notably the case with the British colonial era, which sought to maximize Nile flow into their colonized Egypt and Sudan. Britain did so by creating an agreement with the king of Ethiopia that prevented any work on the Blue Nile that obstructed water flow into the Nile's other tributaries (Abtew and Dessu, 2019). The agreement between two now defunct monarchies is argued to be nullified. ...
Article
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The Nile River is a unique environmental system and essential water resource for its basin riparian nations. Population growth, changes in precipitation patterns, damming and usage rights disputes present extreme challenges in utilizing and managing the basin’s primary water resource. These stress factors are of particular concern for highly populated Egypt, the furthest downstream recipient of the Nile’s water flow. Previously, colonial agreements had granted Egypt and Sudan the majority of water use rights on the Nile without neighboring Ethiopia receiving any specific allocation. Today, Ethiopia plans to increase its energy production through its Nile-powered Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). While the 74-billion cubic meter (BCM) dam presents promising development opportunities for Ethiopia, the Nile’s altered flow will increase the existing water deficit for Egypt—the quantification and mitigation of which are still largely unconstrained and under intense debate. To address this deficiency, we estimate that the median total annual water budget deficit for Egypt during the filling period, considering seepage into the fractured rocks below and around the GERD reservoir, as well as the intrinsic water deficit and assuming no possible mitigation efforts by Egyptian authorities, will be ∼31 BCM yr−1, which would surpass one third of Egypt’s current total water budget. Additionally, we provide a feasibility index for the different proposed solutions to mitigate the above deficit and assess their economic impact on the GDP per capita. Our results suggest that the unmet annual deficit during the filling period can be partially addressed by adjusting the Aswan High Dam (AHD) Operation, expanding groundwater extraction and by adopting new policies for cultivation of crops. If no prompt mitigation is performed, the short-term three-year filling scenario would generate a deficit that is equivalent to losses to the present cultivated area by up to 72% resulting in a total loss of the agricultural GDP by $51 billion during the above-mentioned filling period. Such figures are equivalent to a decrease in the total national GDP per capita by ∼8%, augmenting existing unemployment rates by 11%, potentially leading to severe socioeconomic instability.
... GERD reservoir elevation-area-volume curve(Abtew and Dessu, 2019) ...
... GERD will be primarily used for hydroelectric power generation and will account 40% of Ethiopia's currently installed generation capacity (Liersch et al., 2017). Detailed discussions on the hydrological system and geopolitical arena around GERD can be consulted at Abtew and Dessu (2019). ...
Preprint
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We present factual errors, methodological flaws, wrong assumptions, inadequate data use, misleading conclusions and scientific misconducts committed by a book chapter by Dandrawy and Omran (2020) on the GERD, titled “Integrated Watershed Management of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam via Watershed Modeling System and Remote Sensing” In Environmental Remote Sensing in Egypt and published at Springer (https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030395926). We used direct and indirect fact-checking methods including consulting of the design report of the GERD, literature review and recalculating some parameters to reflect on the major flaws of the chapter. The main points of concern are: (1) absence of hydrological and hydraulic model calibration to assess model input and parameter uncertainty; (2) generation of intensity-duration-frequency curve of the Upper Blue Nile basin based on a single station data, while there are more than 40 meteorological stations within and around the basin; (3) ill-defined and exaggerated topographic parameters such as flow length, slope, and time to peak to overestimate flood flow; (4) failure to include routing component in the modelling while estimating flood despite large size of the basin with over 1000 km river hydraulic length; (5) exaggerating the elevation-area-capacity curve of the GERD and significantly overestimating GERD’s reservoir (lake) area; (6) unwarranted and misleading conclusions on the collapsibility of the GERD without complemented with any dam failure analysis and proper hydrologic and flooding assessment. Moreover, the book Chapter has several accounts of scientific misconducts of plagiarism, falsification and fabrications that should not have passed any standard peer-reviewed processes for a highly reputable publisher with the stature of Springer. If such gross failures of scientific veracity and analytical weaknesses continue unaddressed, there is a clear danger that the public credibility of scientists and the forum in which they publish their scientific findings can be compromised. In addition, such publications, which lack scientific foundation could undermine both scientific integrity and regional peace and security. The latter is predicated upon the realisation that the discourse on GERD is a highly sensitive matter in north-east Africa. We thus believe that this critique paper can serve as a basis both for defending scientific integrity in other similar cases in the future and for providing pointers that would put science at the service of society.
... Therefore, Egypt raises the concern that dam construction could restrict the Nile's flow and contribute to water scarcity and drought in the country. Negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan on the dam's construction and the speed of reservoir filling remain in deadlock (Abtew & Dessu, 2019). ...
Chapter
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Natural disasters such as cyclones, droughts, earthquakes, floods, landslides, volcanoes, or pandemics routinely have cross-border implications. Transboundary risks of natural disasters tend to be the greatest for neighboring countries but often extend regionally or even globally. Even disasters with seemingly localized impacts contained within the national borders of a given state may have indirect short-term or long-term effects on other countries through refugee flows, conflict spillovers, volatility of global commodity prices, disruption of trade relations, financial flows, or global supply chains. Natural disasters may increase the risk of interstate conflict because of commitment problems, reduced opportunity costs of conflict, shocks to status quo divisions of resources, or demarcation of territories among countries, or because of leaders’ heightened diversionary incentives in favor of conflict. In some cases, disasters may have a pacifying effect on ongoing hostilities by creating opportunities for disaster diplomacy among conflict parties. Population displacement in disaster zones can send refugee flows and other types of migration across borders, with varying short-term and long-term socioeconomic and political effects in home and host countries. Adverse effects of natural disasters on regional and global economic activity shape patterns of international trade and financial flows among countries. To mitigate such risks from natural disasters and facilitate adjustment and recovery efforts, countries may turn to international cooperation through mechanisms for disaster relief and preparedness. Regional and global governmental and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are common means to initiate and maintain such cooperative efforts.
... On one hand, the Blue Nile emanates from Lake Tana in Ethiopia while on the other hand, the White Nile emanates from Lake Victoria. The length of the Nile River is 6700 km (Abtew & Dessu, 2019) and covers approximately 3.18 million square Kilometers of Eastern Africa (Mohamed, 2016). As of 2012, more than 400 million people were residing in the Nile Basin. ...
... It affects the productivity of zooplankton and phytoplankton and causes aquatic hypoxia (deficiency of oxygen) [18]. Its impact on the hydrologic cycle is through evapotranspiration [19], as the rate of evapotranspiration of water hyacinth is higher than the evaporation of open water surface areas [19,20] but the rate of evapotranspiration in wetlands is almost similar to open water surface [21]. Water hyacinth can severely affect the habitat of fishes due to deoxygenation. ...
Article
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Water hyacinth originated from the Amazon Basin and has expanded to other parts of the world since the 1800s. In Ethiopia, the weed is affecting the socio-economic activities of the people whose livelihood is directly or indirectly dependent on Lake Tana. Still, the area covered by water hyacinth and the impact of water level fluctuation on the expansion of water hyacinth has not been known clearly. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of water hyacinth and relation with lake-level fluctuation. The area covered by water hyacinth was determined using monthly Sentinel-2 images, which were collected from November 2015 to December 2019. The impact of water level fluctuation on the expansion of water hyacinth was evaluated using hourly water level data converted to a monthly average to correlate with the area covered by the water hyacinth. In addition, MOD13Q1.006 data was used to evaluate the trend of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and its linkage with the weed. The maximum areas covered by water hyacinth were 278.3, 613.6, 1108.7, 2036.5, and 2504.5 ha in Feb 2015, October 2016, September 2017, December 2018, and in December 2019, respectively. Its areal coverage was declining from the north corridors and increasing in eastern shores of the lake. The lake-level fluctuation was observed in the range of 1.5 to 3.98 m in this study. The annual mean maximum spatial values of the NDVI were in the range of 0.27 and 0.47. The area covered by water hyacinth was increasing significantly (P < 0.05) and positively correlated with the seasonal lake-level fluctuation. High water level enabled the expansion of the weed by extending its suitable habitat of shallow water to the flood plain. Based on the results of this study, lake-level fluctuations can have an adverse impact on the expansion of the weed.
... Therefore, in the current study, mapping and assessing the ESA index to desertification was fully implemented in the GEE environment as a spatially explicit, coherent, and adaptive system with free and open-access real-time data for continuous monitoring. BNB is exposed to environmental and socio-economic problems, such as intense erosive rainfall that falls on eroded slopes and fragile soils (Abtew and Dessu, 2019;Conway, 2000), intensive cultivation systems (Mwendera et al., 1997;Teweldebrihan et al., 2021), and increasing population pressure (Bogale, 2020;Ebabu et al., 2019); all leading to significant loss of soil by water (Elnashar et al., 2021b;Fenta et al., 2021) and sediment deposition problems in water infrastructures (Ali et al., 2014;Kantoush and Sumi, 2013;Moussa, 2019). Accordingly, previous studies in different locations in the BNB have been focused on such problems, for instance: mapping and assessing soil water erosion (Tolosa et al., 2019;Yesuph and Dagnew, 2019), impact of land cover change on soil loss and sediment deposition (Gebremicael et al., 2013;Melese et al., 2021), impact of climate variations and change on hydrology (Mengistu et al., 2021;Mohamed et al., 2021), and drought assessment (Bayissa et al., 2021). ...
Article
Assessing environmentally sensitive areas (ESA) to desertification and understanding their primary drivers are necessary for applying targeted management practices to combat land degradation at the basin scale. We have developed the MEditerranean Desertification And Land Use framework in the Google Earth Engine cloud platform (MEDALUS-GEE) to map and assess the ESA index at 300 m grids in the Blue Nile Basin (BNB). The ESA index was derived from elaborating 19 key indicators representing soil, climate, vegetation, and management through the geometric mean of their sensitivity scores. The results showed that 43.4%, 28.8%, and 70.4% of the entire BNB, Upper BNB, and Lower BNB, respectively, are highly susceptible to desertification, indicating appropriate land and water management measures should be urgently implemented. Our findings also showed that the main land degradation drivers are moderate to intensive cultivation across the BNB, high slope gradient and water erosion in the Upper BNB, and low soil organic matter and vegetation cover in the Lower BNB. The study presented an integrated monitoring and assessment framework for understanding desertification processes to help achieve land-related sustainable development goals.
... GERD's announced purpose is hydropower generation, with 16 Francis turbines each with 375 MW capacity. The expected average annual energy production is estimated as 15,700 GWH with a design flow rate of 4305 m 3 s -1 (Abtew and Dessu, 2019b). GERD's first filling started unilaterally in 2020 and will continue during the next years as Ethiopia proposed. ...
Technical Report
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This report provides a technical review of the available literature on different studies and analyses applied to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) up to May 2021.
Chapter
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Water hyacinth is a free floating aquatic weed native to South America. It has spread to tropical and subtropical parts of the World since 1800s. Climatic and water conditions are the main determinant factors for the growth and expansion of water hyacinth. The weed has substantial negative impacts on hydrology, socioeconomics, and aquatic ecosystem. Although hyacinth preventive strategies are best, once water bodies are infested, integrated measures are recommended to manage the weed. Lake Tana, largest fresh water body in Ethiopia, is recently infested by water hyacinth since 2011. The area sensitive to water hyacinth infestation in Lake Tana is estimated to be about 24,800ha, which covers ≤6m of the lake depth, excluding the surrounding wetlands and flood plains. The lessons for management of Lake Tana water hyacinth are employing preventive and integrated management approaches. Reducing pollutant loads and nutrient enrichment through integrated watershed management is also suggested to reduce the Lake eutrophication.
Conference Paper
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The Nile River consisting of two tributaries from Lake Tana in Ethiopia (Blue Nile) and Lake Victoria in Uganda (White Nile), and unifying in Khartoum in Sudan is one of the longest rivers in the world. Also, flowing from the south to the north, unlike the general conditions of other rivers is another key feature of the Nile. Egypt as a downstream country in the basin has been the most influential and dependent actor in terms of getting benefits from the river. For this reason, Egypt and the Nile River have been used as the same meanings, and there has been a phenomenon that “Egypt is the Nile”. However, the Ethiopian declaration on the construction of the Great Renaissance Dam in 2011 over the Blue Nile shocked Egypt that this step can end Egypt’s long-standing dominance on the river. This study mainly focuses on the possible impacts of the Grand Renaissance Dam on Ethiopian-Egyptian relations. By doing this, first of all, it briefly summarizes historical projects on the Nile done by Ethiopia. Secondly, it tries to explain the reasons why Ethiopia started such a project on the Nile. Thirdly, the study focuses on how Grand Renaissance Dam impacts the relations between Ethiopia and Egypt.
Article
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This paper attempts to show how the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) 's economic and political gains could help develop a shared outlook to regulate Ethiopia's opposing political trajectories, i.e., the ethnocentric and pan-Ethiopian nationalist camps. Presently, different ethnic-based "in-group and out-group" contrasting political discourses have dominated Ethiopian polity. The paper reviews and exposes relevant philosophical concepts, including "mirror identity",pri-mordial and instrumental conception of ethnicity. Notably, following Anderson's (2006) line of thought, nationalism as a "cultural artefact" and expression of an "imagined community",the paper argues that GERD could serve as a shared symbolic and developmental language to re-shape Ethiopian nationalconsciousness and imagination by improving the political and economic domains of the country. Accordingly, the GERD covertly or overtly helps reform the polity's self-recognition mechanisms and circuitously re-approaches outstanding political differences by in-spiring trust-based relations among major political actors. Ethnocentric motivations raise political questions such as secession, the right to linguistic and cultural recognition, economic equality, and political security and representation by using their respective ethnic lines as means of politi-cal mobilization. In current Ethiopia, political identities have been practically blended with ethnic identity. In this sense, as diverse ethnic groups exist, political borders sustain among the multiple ethnic-based nationalists and between pan-Ethiopian and ethnocentric actors. Thus, a compre-hensive dialogue and constructive political cross-fertilization are required between various politi-cal actors, horizontally and vertically, among ethnocentric nationalists and the pan-Ethiopian ad-vocates. In Ethiopia, the realization of internal political consensus requires an instantaneous re-medial mechanism. Accordingly, the politically drawn antithetical ethnic demarcations and occa-sionally fabricated historical narratives have undeniably pushed politics into unfavourable condi-tions. That is why, as the paper maintains that developmental projects such as the GERD would have pertinent economic and political mechanisms to developing a national sentiment, which in turn symbolically facilitate national consensus among the major political actors. Hence, borrowing Fukuyama's (2018) notion of "creedal national identity", one could resonate those developmental projects can help realize symbolic worth by constructively enabling citizens to recognize their countries' foundational ideals and elevating common factors. In terms of scope, the present paper does not examine the GERD project's external geopolitical and legal concerns,although these topics are worth examining for further investigations.Key word: Ethnicity, Ethiopia, Ethnic federalism, GERD, Developmental Language, Identity Politics.
Article
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Recent developments of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam aiming to utilize the River Nile’s water for electricity production sparked serious debates in Africa. Under construction since 2011, the project has severe geopolitical consequences not only in its immediate neighbourhood but also in the downstream countries such as Sudan and Egypt that are almost exclusively reliant on the river’s water for industrial, agricultural, and household purposes. Although the Nile is the longest river on Earth, its water is shared by tens of millions of users in a region characterized by water scarcity. Therefore, the Ethiopian dam, with its potentially negative consequences, is considered an existential threat for Egypt and contributes to the political tensions between the two distant countries.This analysis aims to present the political choices behind this megaproject focusing on Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia and the impacts that different scenarios of water usage (how fast the reservoir behind the Dam is filled) may have on the downstream countries. In this sense, negotiations on the completion of the Dam and the hydroelectric power plant are crucial for Egypt’s water resources. My analysis tries to shed light on the importance of this topic in the Egyptian political discourseand show the changes in the political leeway of Egyptian leadership since 2011. As the case provides yet another illustration of interconnected environmental issues, my research also highlights the political and economic dilemmas embedded in similar situations.
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ويتناول الكتاب دراسة العلاقات المصرية الإثيوبية وفق اقتراب الإطار الديناميكي لتفاعل المياه العابرة للحدود( Dynamic Transboundary Water Interaction Framework of )، لزيتون وآخرين ( 2017 )، من حيث وجود ركائز مختلفة ( قوة عسكرية ، اقتصادي، قانونية، أيدولوجية، موقع جغرافي، مكانة دولي) لإثيوبيا كدولة منبع، ولمصر كدولة مصب ، ترتكز عليها عبر استراتيجيات وتكتيكات وآليات مختلفة (قسرية، نفعية، قانونية، أيدولوجية)، لتحقيق الهيمنة أو تحديها ،وفق إطار ديناميكي تفاعلي ، قد يؤدي في النهاية إلى بقاء نظام الهيمنة الراهن “المصري" مع إدخال بعض التعديلات عليه لصالح الطرف غير المهيمن “إثيوبيا"، أو تغييره كاملا وإيجاد نظام بديل تتبدل فيه المواقع والأدوار بين الدولتين. ويعد هذا الكتاب من أوائل الكتب العربية التي تناولت موضوع سد النهضة الإثيوبي من خلال هذا الإطار الديناميكي ، وهو يحاول الإجابة عن سؤال رئيس هو: هل ما تقوم به إثيوبيا، من خلال بناء سد النهضة، يدخل في إطار تحدي الهيمنة (Hegemonic Challenge)، بمعنى السعي لإحداث تغيير محدود داخل نظام الهيمنة المائية المصرية الحالية، أم يدخل في إطار الهيمنة المضادة (Counter-Hegemony)، حيث تعارض إثيوبيا الوضع الراهن من خلال تركيزها على الجوانب القانونية لتغيير قواعد الهيمنة بصورة أكبر، أم هو الرغبة والسعي في التغيير الكامل للنظام المهيمن (Change Hegemony)؟
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صدور كتابي الثالث بعد فترة إعداد وتحكيم وتدقيق استمرت عاما ونصف وهو من أوائل الكتب العربية التي تناولت الصراع في حوض النيل في إطار نموذج التفاعل الديناميكي حول الهيمنة المائية لوارنر وآخرين " 2017" وخلص الكتاب إلى أن إثيوبيا تسعى لأن تحل محل الهيمنة المصرية
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Digital Silk Road — Perspectives From Affected Countries: Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, and Iran. China’s flagship foreign policy engagement programme, the Belt-Road Initiative (BRI) and its technological component, the Digital Silk Road (DSR), have garnered much attention in policy and research circles. As the prime manifestation of China’s ambition to play a greater role in the global digital sphere, the DSR has led to questions concerning whether Beijing might use it as a conduit to export its political system or approach to digital governance, as well as concomitant values, to gain a greater role in global digital standard setting processes, and what its competitive impact is for Western governments and technology companies. The answer to these questions is, however, often not borne by detailed empirical analysis. Nevertheless, the perspective of DSR-affected and recipient countries is crucial, for several reasons. First, the DSR potentially covers dozens of nations, with significant variation in economic development levels, foreign policy, regime type, ethnicity and religion, geography and many other parameters. As such, the DSR cannot be a onesize-fits-all initiative but will inevitably be shaped by the different environments it will face. Second, while the DSR is often framed through the lens of Sino-US great power competition, the dozens of countries affected by it have significant agency. They may have their own strategic visions and approaches that seek to leverage China’s stated munificence to their own benefit. This report provides an initial step in this direction, by providing four country-level studies of perceptions of the DSR. While the four countries, Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, and Iran, obviously differ considerably on numerous counts, it is nevertheless possible to derive the following general findings with regard to their perspectives on the DSR. First, in none of the four countries has the notion of the “Digital Silk Road” entered the domestic political discourse. Second, the DSR is not considered to be a comprehensive, multilateral programme. Even so, the question how to engage with China on digital issues is an important one in domestic policymaking. Unsurprisingly, all governments surveyed intend to develop strategies in pursuit of their own perceived national interest. These conclusions have important implications for observers and policymakers. First and foremost, they should move away from the Beijing-centric model that has dominated the debates so far, and take the agency and interests of affected countries into greater consideration. Second, they should take note that the DSR is not simply a competition between the US and China fought out in neutral territories. Third, even though the DSR may well be less of a national strategy than advertised, it nevertheless is the case that China’s digital footprint does pose competitive challenges to Western governments, for local governments’ favour, and for Western businesses, for their markets.
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Abstract Stage and discharge monitoring, data analysis, and interpretation are essential for flood control, hydropower operation, navigation, water allocation, and ecological management. In the context of transboundary rivers, hydrometric measurements are crucial to establish and maintain legal regimes of water allocation and operation of hydraulic infrastructures in the basin. In the case of the Nile, where there is no legal regime or prior comprehensive agreement, there is serious need for accurate data for negotiation and establishment of such legal regimes. Quality of stream flow data is dependent on who does the stream gauging, method of stream gauging, data acquisition, data transfer, and data storage. Long-term historical stream flow data is needed to understand basin hydrology, stream flow trend, and changes. Blue Nile stream flow data obtained from different sources are examined in the context of ongoing negotiation of the filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The current negotiation is anchored on the data obtained from El Diem Sudan that gives a long-term mean annual flow of 49 billion cubic meters (BCM). Analysis of a set of Blue Nile flow data from different sources and temporal scales indicates significant variation in the data sets. Variability of flow from different records shades doubt on the reliability of using a single series of historical data for long-term negotiation. This paper considers different issues related to flow that affects the GERD negotiation and highlights the importance of accurate streamflow data, instrumentation, and the need for generating new data sets for long-term operation and agreement. The paper stresses the importance of data quality, the type and location of hydrometric measuring stations and the impact of associated data error and measurement inaccuracies in the context of allocation and management of transboundary waters in general terms. Finally, the chapter advises the importance of developing a protocol for upstream and downstream data sharing from all monitoring systems in the basin in a timely manner. An example of limitation of model generated streamflow data is illustrated.
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Floods are among the most severe hydrological extremes, in terms of social impact and potential economic damage. In this study, flood variability and associated impacts and managements are investigated in the Wabi Shebele RiverWabi Shebele River Basin. In early twenty-first century, floods indicate increasing trend in magnitude and frequency in the entire basin. For longest period, 1981–2010, the annual maximum flood discharge shows upward trends in upper and middle catchments while downward trends are in eastern and lower catchments of Wabi Shebele Basin. Among these, annual maximum discharge shows a significant increasing trend in middle catchments (i.e. Erer at Hamaro and Gololcha at Wabi junction) and significant decreasing trend in Fafen watersheds at Jijiga and Kebridehar gauging stations. Flood variability and socio-economic damages follow similar trend tendency in the basin. Like variability analysis result in early twenty-first century, the number of peoples affected indicates increasing trend in study area. In such case, one must shift from defensive action against hazards to management of the risk considering the evolution and trends of floods. Due to its nature, floods in transboundary riverTransboundary rivers basin have transboundary consequence which indicates need of cooperation in between riparian countries for Integrated Flood ManagementIntegrated flood management (IMF). IMF is approach which adopts the best mix of both structural and non-structural strategies by ensuring a participatory approach and adopting integrated hazard management approaches.
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The filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in 2020 raised the age-old confrontation between upstream Ethiopia and downstream Egypt to a new level. In this study, a geographic approach is used to ascertain whether Ethiopia could survive without touching the Blue Nile water by investigating the balance between quality of land resources and demographic pressures against the backdrop of the geohyropolitics in the Mekong River. We used a set of geospatial databases acquired from measured and modeled scientific data sources. DEM, slope, and contours were generated from the terrain data. Rasterized population data were used to discern the temporal trend and plot population density across topographic gradients. Global Climate Model (GCM) generated temperature, and precipitation data, averaged for 2020–2040, 2040–2060, 2060–2080, and 2080–2100, were extracted from five sample locations in each river basin and analyzed for December and June, representing Winter and Summer seasons, respectively. To explore alternative water sources for Egypt, multiple buffer zones were created from the Red Sea and Mediterranean Seas. Results revealed (1) In light of intensifying demographic pressure, dwindling carrying capacity of land resources, warming atmospheric temperature, and growing uncertainty of rainfall patterns, Ethiopia’s vulnerability to food and economic insecurity is bound to worsen in the foreseeable future, which ultimately calls for equitable and reasonable utilization of the Blue Nile water. (2) Over 75% of settlements and over 97% of Egypt’s population are seated within a 300-km distance from the two seas where desalinated water could be harvested for domestic and agricultural uses. The study concludes that Egypt should come to terms with the biophysical and demographic dynamics of the Nile Basin and diversify its water sources rather than hoping to cling to obsolete treaties of the Nile, which the upper riparian countries were not a party to.
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Abstract Tana sub-basin receives rainfall during summer as a primary source of stream flow. This research aimed to relate the catchment characteristics with hydrology of headwater catchments. Rainfall-runoff and sediment yield modeling in relation to catchment characteristics was conducted. Land use, soil, digital elevation model (DEM), precipitation, water quality and quantity were used in the analysis. ERDAS, GIS and HYDATA software were used to evaluate the physical catchment characteristics and meteorological data. Model parameters were calibrated using observed data of 2009–2011 and validated over the period of 2012. Particle swarm optimization was used to determine optimal model parameters. The model parameters were related to catchment characteristics using linear regression in a statistical software. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and hypso�metric integral are directly proportional to direct runoff parameter C. Likewise, the baseflow model parameter b is positively affected by elongation ratio and average slope, and NDVI shows negative effect. Finally, regional model for the hydrology of the headwater catchments was developed.
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Understanding and modelling the complex nature of river systems are essential for efficient use of the water resources. The Nile River, a transboundary river shared between 11 countries with high potential conflicts, was modelled to play an important role in solving conflicts by means of understanding problems and cooperation options. Many water allocation and operation models are used to study and produce some scenarios to support the cooperation among the basin countries. RiverWare software is one of the most recently used models for studying the reservoirs operation management. Where the developed water allocation model called Eastern Nile Model (ENM) using RiverWare software, has proved its worth application on the ENM. The effective use of Riverware tools in ENM requires the updating of hydrological conditions, but the hydrological data in ENM ceased in 2002, casting doubt on the possibility of using it for recent periods. In this study, the hydrological conditions in the model were updated from 2003 to 2014 with a simulated flow data, which were taken from the output of rainfall-runoff distributed model (Nile Forecast System (NFS)), the calibrated NFS simulation period. The methodology of the updating data could be applied again, when the simulated NFS data will be available. The ENM evaluation was performed by comparing the simulated with the observed outflows at the locations of Diem, Khartoum and Dongola stations using statistical criteria. All metrics were considered very good or good. As a result, the ENM is ready for developing reservoirs operational policies with several alternatives and priorities for filling and the operation stages of any planned reservoir. Moreover, the ENM is able to quantify and evaluate the impacts of future development in upstream countries in the Nile basin.
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The Government of Ethiopia has undertaken the implementation of the 6,000 MW Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project (GERD) located on the Blue Nile just upstream of the Ethiopian–Sudan border. The GERD has an active storage capacity of 60,000 million m3 (million cubic meter) which is greater than the yearly average flow of 48,770 Mm3, thus acting as a multiannual regulating reservoir. The objective of this chapter is to analyze potential impacts and benefits of GERD on Eastern Nile, mainly on the High Aswan Dam (HAD) and reservoirs in Sudan. Simulations have been based on monthly flow data considering specific series of years as representative of a possible near-future scenario during GERD filling and operation. For the GERD impounding stage, average sequences of inflows are selected according to a 6-year (planned period to fill GERD reservoir) moving average on HAD yearly inflows time series. The scenarios were evaluated by comparing the current situation (HAD alone) and with GERD. More regular and constant flows will be released to downstream of GERD. At the Sudanese border, peak flows on the Blue Nile are controlled and reduced by GERD (reduction of 85 % of the maximum monthly flow) while low flows are significantly increased ( + 300 %). Evaporation losses are reduced by 12 % comparing to the current situation. Egyptian irrigation water demand is always satisfied during the simulated period.
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The escalation of tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt over the construction of the Grand Renaissance is at least partly based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the risks this dam poses to Egypt. There is a two-part, win-win deal that can defuse tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. First, Ethiopia needs to agree with Egypt and Sudan on rules for filling the Grand Renaissance Dam (GRD) reservoir and on operating rules during periods of drought. Second, Egypt needs to acknowledge that Ethiopia has a right to develop its water resources infrastructure for the benefit of its people based on the principle of equitable use, and agree not to block the power trade agreements that Ethiopia needs with Sudan to make the GRD financially viable. Sudan has a big stake in Egyptian-Ethiopian reconciliation over the use of the Nile. Although Sudan's agricultural and hydropower interests now align with those of Ethiopia, there does not seem to be a formal agreement between Ethiopia and Sudan for the sale of hydropower from the GRD. Because the economic feasibility of the GRD and other Ethiopian hydropower projects will depend on such agreements, Sudan has leverage with both Ethiopia and Egypt to encourage this win-win deal.
Article
The escalation of tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt over the construction of the Grand Renaissance is at least partly based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the risks this dam poses to Egypt. There is a two-part, win–win deal that can defuse tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. First, Ethiopia needs to agree with Egypt and Sudan on rules for filling the Grand Renaissance Dam (GRD) reservoir and on operating rules during periods of drought. Second, Egypt needs to acknowledge that Ethiopia has a right to develop its water resources infrastructure for the benefit of its people based on the principle of equitable use, and agree not to block the power trade agreements that Ethiopia needs with Sudan to make the GRD financially viable. Sudan has a big stake in Egyptian–Ethiopian reconciliation over the use of the Nile. Although Sudan's agricultural and hydropower interests now align with those of Ethiopia, there does not seem to be a formal agreement between Ethiopia and Sudan for the sale of hydropower from the GRD. Because the economic feasibility of the GRD and other Ethiopian hydropower projects will depend on such agreements, Sudan has leverage with both Ethiopia and Egypt to encourage this win–win deal.
Article
Man's intervention with coastal processes takes many forms. However, the most serious large scale, long term coastal erosion results from the interception by dams of rivers supplying sediment to the coast. This loss of sediment may have catastrophic effects along coasts where streams discharge directly into coastal waters. The Nile littoral cell is an impressive example of the effect of dams on coastal erosion. The Nile littoral cell is located in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea and extends 700 km from Alexandria, Egypt in the south to Akko, Israel in the north. The sediment load from the Nile River was deposited along the submerged portion of the delta, where it was sorted and transported to the east by the prevailing waves and by currents of the counterclockwise east Mediterranean gyre that commonly flows at about 50 cm sec over the delta. Prior to 1964, the turbid plume of the flood waters of the Nile River could be traced along the Mediterranean coast for over 700 km to the shores of Lebanon. Fine silt and clay sized material were carried easterly and into deeper water, while sand is carried easterly along the shelf and shore as far as Haifa Bay. Until 1964, the major sediment source of the littoral cell was the Nile River. Construction of the High Aswan Dam, which began filling in 1964, has resulted in a near absence of Nile River flow into the Mediterranean and a corresponding complete loss of the Nile River as a source of nutrients to coastal waters, and as an active sediment source for the delta and the coastline of the Nile littoral cell. As a result, the Nile Delta is now subject to severe erosion in a number of localities.
Article
Software tools have been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Data Center to extract topographic structure and to delineate watersheds and overland flow paths from digital elevation models. The tools are special purpose FORTRAN programs interfaced with general-purpose raster and vector spatial analysis and relational data base management packages. The first phase of analysis is a conditioning phase that generates three data sets: the original DEM with depressions filled, a data set indicating the flow direction for each cell, and a flow accumulation data set in which each cell receives a value equal to the total number of cells that drain to it. The original DEM and these three derivative data sets can then be processed in a variety of ways.
Article
History tells us that Egypt's fertile land is the gift of the Nile. However,for the ® rst time in history, full control of the Nile water was achieved in 1970 after the construction of the High Aswan Dam (HAD). The HAD is a multipurpose project for sustainable irrigation development,hydropower,navigation improvementetc. Different schools of thought appeared before and after the HAD project- optimistic,pessimistic and neutral. However, the anticipated bene® ts and side-effects have provided clear and obvious facts in response to the different ideas after more than 25 years of operation.The HAD saved Egypt twice during the project's life (a) from a dangerousood series which occurred in the late 1970s,and (b) from severe droughtsin the mid-1980s.As with other large projects, some side-effects have occurred, as anticipated,but the bene® ts far exceed these side-effects. There is no doubt that the HAD is the cornerstone for Egypt's sustainable agricultural plans and many other developments.In this paper documented facts are given relevant to HAD water allocations for the sake of the welfare of Egypt's future generations. These will include the realized true bene® ts and side-effects of the HAD.
Article
In this study, monthly and annual Upper Blue Nile Basin rainfall data were analyzed to learn the rainfall statistics and its temporal and spatial distribution. Frequency analysis and spatial characterization of rainfall in the Upper Blue Nile Basin are presented. Frequency analysis was performed on monthly basin rainfall. Monthly basin average rainfall data were computed from a network of 32 gauges with varying lengths of records. Monthly rainfall probability distribution varies from month to month fitting Gamma-2, Normal, Weibull and Log-Normal distributions. The January, July, October and November basin rainfall fit the Gamma-2 probability distribution. The February, June and December ones fit Weibull distribution. The March, April, May and August rainfall fit Normal distribution. The September rainfall fits Log-Normal distribution. Upper Blue Nile Basin is relatively wet with a mean annual rainfall of 1423 mm (1960–2002) with a standard deviation of 125 mm. The annual rainfall has a Normal probability distribution. The 100-year-drought basin annual rainfall is 1132 mm and the 100-year-wet basin annual rainfall is 1745 mm. The dry season is from November through April. The wet season runs from June through September with 74% of the annual rainfall. October and May are transition months. Monthly and annual rainfalls for return periods 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year dry and wet patterns are presented. Spatial distribution of annual rainfall over the basin is mapped and shows high variation with the southern tip receiving as high as 2049 mm and the northeastern tip as low as 794 mm annual average rainfall. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Chapter
Throughout history humans have been fascinated with the Nile River, especially the Egyptian part of the Nile. The birth of this great civilization has been traced back to a time between 11,000 and 10,000 years ago. Around five thousand years ago this civilization started depending entirely on the Nile River and its annual inundation. This chapter traces the history of water engineering in ancient Egypt starting with the uses of water from the annual inundation of the Nile River for natural irrigation in the Predynastic period to the development of methodologies to advance the use of the Nile River for irrigation.
Article
The High Aswan Dam converted a variable and uncertain flow of Nile river water into a predictable and controllable water supply stored in Lake Nasser. We use a computable general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy to estimate the economic impact of the High Aswan Dam. We compare the actual 1997 economy to the 1997 economy as it would have been if historical pre-dam Nile flows (drawn from a 72Â year portrait) had applied (i.e., the Dam had not been built). The steady water supply sustained by the High Aswan Dam increased transport productivity, and year round availability of predictable and adequate water sustained a shift towards more valuable summer crops. These static effects are worth EGP 4.9Â billion. Investments in transport and agriculture increased as a consequence; these investments, assuming that Egypt is a small open economy, added another EGP 1.1Â billion to the value of the Dam. The risk premium on the reduced variability is estimated to be EGP 1.1Â billion for a modest risk aversion, and perhaps EGP 4.4Â billion for a high risk aversion. The total gain of EGP 7.1Â billion to 10.3 EGP billion equals 2.7% to 4.0% of annual GDP in 1997.
Nile water and agriculture past, resent, future
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