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CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENT, AGRICULTURE AND WATER USE AT RAJSHAHI

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  • National Oceanographic and Maritime Institute (NOAMI), Dhaka, Bangladesh

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Climate Change and Its impact on Environment, Agriculture and Water use at Rajshahi Samarendra Karmakar1,2 and Abu Hassan2,3 1Bangladesh Centre for advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh 2Environment & Population Research Centre (EPRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh 3Barisal University Corresponding Author: karmakarsamarendra@gmail.com Abstract Attempts have been made to highlight the Global warming and Global sea surface temperature together with the climatic trends of mean dry-bulb temperature and rainfall at Rajshahi. The annual mean temperature at Rajshahi has a sharp increasing trend of 0.013°C/year during the period 1981-2016. The seasonal mean temperature has increasing trends in pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons during 1981-2016, having the rates of increase 0.021, 0.024 and 0.004 °C/year respectively and during the winter season has a slight increasing trend during the period 1990-2016. The annual rainfall at Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016 has decreasing trend at a rate of 6.968 mm/year. This decreasing rate is alarming and is likely to cause drought at Rajshahi in future. The seasonal rainfall has decreasing trends during the monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons, having the maximum decreasing rate of 6.433 mm/year in monsoon season. This indicates that the drought condition is likely to increase at Rajshahi even in the monsoon season. Inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability exists at Rajshahi as well as in Bangladesh. Rise in temperature at Rajshahi will have profound effect on agriculture. Due to less availability of water, the climate is changing at Rajshahi. Temperature is increasing and rainfall is decreasing. Frequency of heat waves in summer and cold waves in winter are increasing. Production of agricultural crops is decreasing as per the perception of community people. Key words: Climate Change, Environment, Agriculture and Community people.
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Journal of Engineering Science 09(1), 2018, 11-20
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENT, AGRICULTURE AND
WATER USE AT RAJSHAHI
Samarendra Karmakar1,2* and Abu Hassan2,3
1Bangladesh Centre for advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh
2Environment & Population Research Centre (EPRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh
3Barisal University
Received: 10 October 2017 Accepted: 21 January 2018
ABSTRACT
Attempts have been made to highlight the Global warming and Global sea surface temperature together with the
climatic trends of mean dry-bulb temperature and rainfall at Rajshahi. The annual mean temperature at Rajshahi
has a sharp increasing trend of 0.013°C/year during the period 1981-2016. The seasonal mean temperature has
increasing trends in pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons during 1981-2016, having the rates of
increase 0.021, 0.024 and 0.004 °C/year respectively and during the winter season has a slight increasing trend
during the period 1990-2016. The annual rainfall at Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016 has decreasing trend at
a rate of 6.968 mm/year. This decreasing rate is alarming and is likely to cause drought at Rajshahi in future. The
seasonal rainfall has decreasing trends during the monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons, having the
maximum decreasing rate of 6.433 mm/year in monsoon season. This indicates that the drought condition is likely to
increase at Rajshahi even in the monsoon season. Inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability exists at
Rajshahi as well as in Bangladesh. Rise in temperature at Rajshahi will have profound effect on agriculture. Due to
less availability of water, the climate is changing at Rajshahi. Temperature is increasing and rainfall is decreasing.
Frequency of heat waves in summer and cold waves in winter are increasing. Production of agricultural crops is
decreasing as per the perception of community people.
Keywords: Agriculture and Community people, Climate Change, Environment.
1. INTRODUCTION
The climate change issues have become international priorities during the last three decades. It is generally accepted
that the global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3°C to 0.6°C over the last 100 years. The magnitude
of the global warming is broadly consistent with the prediction models, but is also of the same magnitude as natural
climatic variability. There is no firm evidence that climate has become more variable over the last few decades. The
current scientific consensus is that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases should have caused
world to warm. The rate of warming however is very uncertain. In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC, 1990) estimated that with a "Business-as-usual" scenario of green house gas emissions, the world
should be 3.3°C warmer by the end of the next century, with a range of uncertainty of 2.2 to 4.9°C. Subsequent
analyses by IPCC and others suggest somewhat lower rates of warming. Nevertheless, such rates of global
temperature change are greater than those, which have occurred naturally over the last 10,000 years. By the second
half of the present century (2001-2200), the global temperature could well exceed that which has occurred over the
last 150,000 years, at least. Bangladesh is a least developed nation of the world and may also be most vulnerable to
climate change. The increasing trend of global temperature may increase the intensity of different climatic hazards
like tropical cyclones, thunderstorms, floods, drought etc. The possibility of changes in climate must be considered
seriously in the context of future development of Bangladesh.
Warrick et al. (1994) studied the variations of temperature and rainfall over Bangladesh. They have expressed mean
annual temperatures as departures from the reference period 1951-80. They found that, on this time scale,
Bangladesh region has been getting warmer from the later part of the last century. They noted an overall increase in
temperature by 0.5C, which is comparable in magnitude to the observed global warming. The analysis of annual
rainfall of Bangladesh for the period 1970-1991 showed no discernible long-term trend in mean annual rainfall
(Folland et al., 1992). Some other studies have been made on rainfall variability and climate change in Bangladesh
(Karmakar and Khatun, 1995; Karmakar and Nessa, 1997; Karmakar, 2000) and are important for agricultural
purposes in the country.
Crops are very sensitive to temperature in agriculture sector. In a study made by Kabir (2015), it found that the
model predicted significant reduction in yield of both varieties of boro rice (BR3 and BR14) in southwestern part of
Bangladesh due to climate change; yield reductions of over 20% and 50% have been predicted for both rice varieties
for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. According to him, increases in daily maximum and minimum
temperatures have been found to be primarily responsible for reduction in yield. Rimi et al. (2009) made a study on
* Corresponding Author: karmakarsamarendra@gmail.com KUET@JES, ISSN 2075-4914/09(1), 2018
JES
an international Journal
12 Samarendra Karmakar et al. Climate Change and its Impact ……
the trend analysis of climate change and investigated the probable impacts on rice production at Satkhira,
Bangladesh. They concluded that effects of the climate changes would vary depending on the differences in the
variety and local differences in growing seasons, crop management etc. Higher temperature and precipitation would
aggravate declining condition of the soils. As a result, food-grain production would certainly have adversely
affected. The rice varieties, which are in use, might not be able to tolerate temperature rise and sustain current level
of yield.
Karmakar and Shrestha (2000) studied the recent climatic changes in Bangladesh and concluded that mean
maximum temperature during 1961-90 over Bangladesh during the pre-monsoon season has a decreasing trend up to
1977 after which it has a slight increasing trend. During the southwest monsoon season, it has significant increasing
trend after 1976. The mean maximum temperature during the post-monsoon season has increasing trend, which is
highly significant. Whereas during the winter season, it has significant decreasing trend up to 1984 beyond which it
increases significantly. The annual mean maximum temperature over Bangladesh has significant decreasing trend up
to 1975 and very significant increasing trend after 1975. The overall trend of annual mean maximum temperature for
the period 1961-1990 is of increasing order which is statistically significant. The mean minimum temperature over
Bangladesh has decreasing trend up to 1978 and increasing trend after 1978. During the southwest monsoon season,
it has significant decreasing trend up to 1976 and then it has a slight increasing trend after 1976 but not significant.
The mean minimum temperature has an increasing trend up to 1976 during the post-monsoon and then decreasing
trend after 1976, both the trends being very significant. During the winter season, it has a significant decreasing
trend up to 1977 and then an increasing trend, which is not statistically significant. The mean minimum temperature
for the overall period 1961-90 has increasing trends during all the seasons except the post-monsoon season when it
has decreasing trend. The annual mean minimum temperature over Bangladesh has an increasing trend up to 1978
which is statistically significant and after 1978 it has a slight decreasing trend which is not significant. The overall
annual mean minimum temperature over Bangladesh for the period 1961-90 has a slight decreasing trend. The mean
temperature over Bangladesh has a slight increasing trend during the whole period 1961-90, but the trend is not
statistically significant.
In Rajshahi, Farakka Barrage also plays an important role in changing the climate because of the reduced flows in
the River Padma. According to Adel (2013), the riverine ecosystem of Bangladesh has been facing ecocide due to
this Barrage. India has been drawing at least 60% of the downstream Bangladesh Ganges basin ecosystem’s water
without regard to the condition of the ecosystem in Bangladesh. Gain and Giupponi (2014) studied the impact of the
Farakka Dam on thresholds of the hydrologic flow regime in the lower Ganges River Basin (Bangladesh) and the
reduced flow in the Ganges is responsible for the increase of salinity in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh
and a reduction of fish and agricultural diversity. They concluded that future studies are required, aiming at a more
in-depth understanding of the system to investigate the combined impact of climate change and human-induced
perturbation.
The present study aims at the analysis of temperature and rainfall together with frequency of heat waves and cold
waves at Rajshahi to see the trends of these elements and their impacts on environment, agriculture and the use of
water especially in the Rajshahi region. Community perception on the impact of climate change on agriculture and
water at Rajshahi has also been investigated.
2. DATA USED AND METHODOLOGY
Daily data on maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean dry-bulb temperature and daily rainfall at
Rajshahi station of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the period January through December of
1981-2016 have been used to study the climatic pattern in Rajshahi.
From the daily data, monthly, seasonal mean and annual mean values have been computed for the four seasons e.g.
pre-monsoon southwest monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. It is important to note that for the computation of
seasonal mean values for the winter season, the data in December of one year has been used with the data in January
and February of the following year to represent the winter mean value of the following year (e.g. mean data of
December 1981, and January and February of 1982 represents the mean data for the winter of 1982 and so on). The
daily maximum and minimum temperatures are used to find the frequency of heat waves and cold wave and their
trends are studied.
To obtain the community’s idea about the climate change and its impacts on the environment, agriculture, water use
etc, a workshop was organized at Rajshahi in collaboration with a local NGO and community people.
Journal of Engineering Science 09(1), 2018, 11-20 13
3. GLOBAL WARMING
The Figure1 shows the trend in global mean surface temperature. According to IPCC, the global average air
temperature near the Earth's surface is found to rise by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C during the hundred years ending in 2005. It
was emphasized that human-caused global warming brings serious threats from increased flooding to the spread of
disease to the disruption of agriculture in many parts of the world. The global average and combined land and ocean
surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple
independently produced datasets. The total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003
2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C, based on the single longest dataset available (IPCC, 2013). Global Sea surface
temperature is rising and the oceans are warming. Over the period 1961 to 2003, global ocean temperature has risen
by 0.10°C from the surface to a depth of 700 m (IPCC, 2007) (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Global mean surface temperature change
from 1880 to 2016, relative to the 1951–1980 mean.
[The black line is the global annual mean and the red
line is the five-year lowess smooth. The blue
uncertainty bars show a 95% confidence limit. Source:
NASA GISS (https://en.wikipedia. org/wiki/
Instrumental_ temperature record]
Figure 2: Global average SSTs from 1990-2008.
SSTs have not increased in the past seven years.
Image credit: NASA/GISS. (Source: https://www.
wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/is-the-globe-
cooling. html
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Trends in annual mean and seasonal mean temperature at Rajshahi
The trends in annual and seasonal mean temperature at Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016 is shown in Figures. 3-
7. Figure 3 shows the trend in annual mean temperature, which has a sharp increasing trend of +0.013°C/year. The
pre-monsoon mean temperature has also increasing trend during the period 1981-2016 and is +0.021°C/year, which
is higher than the rate of annual mean temperature (Figure 4). From the analysis of the annual and seasonal mean
temperature except the winter that the increasing trend in temperature is found to start from 1980 or 1981 at
Rajshahi.
Figure 5 gives the trend in mean temperature at Rajshahi in the southwest monsoon season during 1981-2016,
having a positive trend of +0.024°C/year, which is statistically significant up to 95% level of significance. The mean
temperature in post-monsoon season has also slight increasing trend during the period 1981-2016 and is
+0.004°C/year and it is not statistically significant (Figure 6). The trend in mean temperature at Rajshahi in the
winter season during the period 1981-2016 is shown in Figure 7. The mean temperature in winter has decreasing
trend at -0.007 °C/year during 1981-2016. It is interesting to note that the mean temperature during the winter
season has a slight increasing trend (0.001C/year) during the period 1990-2016. It is, therefore, evident that the
seasonal mean temperature at Rajshahi has started increasing during the winter season from 1990, although there is
always inter-annual variability.
Decadal variability of annual mean temperature at Rajshahi is shown in Figure 8, which shows that the annual mean
temperature has lower trend rate in the decade 1991-2000 and then it has higher increasing trend, having the
14 Samarendra Karmakar et al. Climate Change and its Impact ……
maximum trend of 0.049 C/year in the decade 2001-2010. The figure also shows inter-decadal variability of annual
mean temperature.
Figure 3: Temporal variation of annual mean
temperature (ºC) at Rajshahi during the pre-monsoon
season of 1981-2016
Figure 4: Temporal variation of mean temperature (ºC)
at Rajshahi during the pre-monsoon season of 1981-
2016
Figure 5: Temporal variation of mean temperature (ºC)
at Rajshahi during the SW monsoon season of 1981-
2016
Figure 6: Temporal variation of mean temperature (ºC)
at Rajshahi during the post-monsoon season of 1981-
2016
Figure 7: Temporal variation of mean temperature C)
at Rajshahi during the winter season of 1981-2016
Figure 8: Decadal variability of annual temperature at
Rajshahi
4.2 Frequency of Heat waves and Cold waves
4. 2.1 Frequency of minimum temperature <10C
The frequency of minimum temperature less than 10C (cold waves) over Rajshahi during 1981-2016 has been
computed from the daily minimum temperature. Figure 9 shows that the frequency of minimum temperature <10C
y = 0.013x - 1.150
R² = 0.245
24.4
24.6
24.8
25
25.2
25.4
25.6
25.8
26
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Annual mean temperature (C)
Years
y = 0.021x - 15.26
R² = 0.084
25
26
27
28
29
30
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Pre-monsoon mean temperature
(C)
Years
y = 0.024x - 20.56
R² = 0.492
28
28.2
28.4
28.6
28.8
29
29.2
29.4
29.6
29.8
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Monsoon mean temperature (C)
Years
y = 0.004x + 15.33
R² = 0.009
23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.5
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Post-monsoon mean temperature
(C)
Years
y = -0.007x + 33.21
R² = 0.016
y = 0.001x + 15.94
R² = 0.000
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Winter mean temperature (C)
Years
0.028
0.022
0.049
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
Decadal trends in annual mean
temperature (C/year)
Decades
Journal of Engineering Science 09(1), 2018, 11-20 15
may vary from 7 to 39 days in a year at Rajshahi and it has increasing trend at 0.035 days/year, which means that the
intensity of cold waves may increase in future if this trend continues.
4.2.2 Frequency of maximum temperature >36C
The temporal variation of the annual frequency of days with maximum temperature >36°C at Rajshahi during 1981-
2016 are shown in Figure 10. The figure shows inter-annual variation in the frequency of days with maximum
temperature >36°C. It is found that the annual frequency of days with maximum temperature >36°C has increasing
tendency at Rajshahi at 0.655 days/year during 1981-2016. If the current rate of increase in the annual frequency of
days with maximum temperature >36°C would continue in future, the heat waves would have tremendous impacts
on the agriculture sector and food security (crops, animals, etc.) in future and the situation would be more
aggravated in Rajshahi.
Figure 9: Temporal variation of annual total frequency
of minimum temperature <10°C at Rajshahi during
1981-2016
Figure 10: Temporal variation of annual frequency of
maximum temperature >36C at Rajshahi during 1981-
2016
4.3 Trends in annual and seasonal rainfall at Rajshahi
The trends in the seasonal rainfall during pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons at Rajshahi
during the period 1981-2016 are shown in Figures. 11-14 respectively. Figure 11 shows that the pre-monsoon
rainfall at Rajshahi has increasing trend at a rate of 0.029 mm/year. The rainfall at Rajshahi has decreasing trends in
other seasons. The rates of decrease are -6.788, -1.115 and -0.993 mm/year during the monsoon, post-monsoon and
winter seasons respectively (Figures. 12-14). Of these, monsoon season has the maximum decreasing rate of -6.788
mm/year (Figure 12). This indicates that the drought condition is likely to increase at Rajshahi even in the monsoon
season. The trend in annual rainfall at Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016 is shown in Figure 15. This figure
shows that the annual rainfall at Rajshahi has also decreasing trend at a rate of -8.946 mm/year. This decreasing rate
is alarming and is likely to cause drought at Rajshahi in future. Decadal trend in annual rainfall at Rajshahi during
1981-2010 is shown in Figure 16, indicating a prominent decreasing trend in annual rainfall (-56.07 mm/year)
during the last decade i.e. 2001-2010, which is alarming for Rajshahi. The figure also shows that the decadal rainfall
vary from one decade to another.
4.4 Perception of the community people on the impact of climate change in Rajshahi region
A workshop was organized in Rajshahi on the climate change and its impact by Environment & Population Research
Centre (EPRC) and Global Applied Research Network (GARNET-SA) in collaboration with Basti Unnayan &
Karmo Sangstha on 30 January 2013 and a number of participants were present. Open discussion and group
discussion were held in the workshop. The results of the discussion are given below.
4.4.1 Open discussion on climate change
On the basis of the open discussion, the opinions of the participants are tabulated in Table 1. According to the
participants, temperature increased much at Rajshahi during the last 30 years. Of these, 51.42% respondents
mentioned that temperature rose much during last 5 years and 57.14% respondents replied that temperature
increased much during last 30 years. About rainfall at Rajshahi, 51.42% respondents replied that rainfall decreased
very much during the last 5 years whereas 62.85% respondents opined that rainfall decreased very much during the
y = 0.035x - 50.10
R² = 0.001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Annual total frequency of
minimum temp. < 10C
Months
y = 0.655x - 1269.
R² = 0.177
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Annual frequency of max.
temperature >36C
Years
16 Samarendra Karmakar et al. Climate Change and its Impact ……
last 30 years. Drought conditions increased much at Rajshahi during last 5 and 30 years as responded by 42.85% and
40,0 % participants respectively. Regarding flood, 85.71% respondents replied that flood frequency decreased much
in the recent 5 years whereas 42.85% respondents replied that flood frequency was more in the last 30 years. About
Kalbaishakhi storms and tornadoes, 42.85% respondents replied that these storms decreased very much in last 5
years and 45.71% respondents answered that Kalbaishakhi storms and tornadoes decreased much in the last 30 years
at Rajshahi.
Figure 11: Temporal variation of rainfall during pre-
monsoon season at Rajshahi during the period 1981-
2016
Figure 12: Temporal variation of rainfall during
monsoon season at Rajshahi during the period 1981-
2016
Figure 13: Temporal variation of rainfall during post-
monsoon season at Rajshahi during the period 1981-
2016
Figure 14: Temporal variation of rainfall during winter
season at Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016
Figure 15: Temporal variation of annual rainfall at
Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016
Figure 16: Decadal variability of annual rainfall at
Rajshahi
According to the respondents, frequency of heat waves increased very much (57.14% respondents) in the last 5 years
whereas it increased much in the last 30 years (22.85% respondents); frequency of cold waves also increased very
y = 0.029x + 171.5
R² = 1E-05
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Pre-monsoon rainfall (mm)
Years
y = -6.788x + 14616
R² = 0.073
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Monsoon rainfall (mm)
Years
y = -1.115x + 2353.
R² = 0.018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Post-Monsoon rainfall (mm)
Years
y = -0.993x + 2016.
R² = 0.113
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Winter rainfall (mm)
Years
y = -8.946x + 19315
R² = 0.097
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Annual rainfall (mm)
Years
-17.83
66.92
-56.07
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1981-1990 1990-2000 2001-2010
Decadal trend in annual
rainfall (mm/year)
Decades
Journal of Engineering Science 09(1), 2018, 11-20 17
much (71.42% respondents) in the last 5 years and moderately increased (51.42% respondents) in the last 30 years.
Therefore, climate change occurred at Rajshahi with the increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall as per the
opinions of the participants and these changes are as per the presentation in the key-note paper in the workshop. The
continuation of the decrease in rainfall is likely to enhance drought conditions at Rajshahi. The decrease in
Kalbaishakhi/tornadoes also indicates that rainfall will be less during the pre-monsoon season thereby enhancing the
drought situation at Rajshahi.
Table 1: Interview related to climate change at Rajshahi
Question on Last 5 years Last 30 years
No. of respondents (N=35) No. of respondents (N=35)
Moderate Much Very much Moderate Much Very much
Increase in temperature 1(2.85%) 18 (51.42%)
3 (8.57%) 20 (57.14%)
Decrease in rainfall 18 (51.42%) 22 (62.85%)
Increase in drought
conditions
15 (42.85%)
14 (40.00%)
Decrease in floods 15 (42.85%)
Increase in floods 2(5.71%) 15 (42.85%)
Decrease in
Kalbaishakhi /tornadoes
15 (42.85%) 16 (45.71%)
Increase in heat
waves/hotness
20 (57.14%) 8 (22.85%)
Increase in cold
waves/coldness
25 (71.42%) 18 (51.42%)
According to the participants, drought is the most harmful in Rajshahi region and the intensity of drought increased
during the last 5 years as compared to that during last 30 years. Rainfall intensity and duration also decreased in this
region. As a result, the agriculture patterns, crop patterns and quality of water were being affected very much. The
participants emphasized on the importance of climate change at Rajshahi sequentially as (i) drought conditions
increased, (ii) temperature increased, (iii) rainfall decreased and (iv) cold waves/ coldness increased.
4.4.2 Group discussion on climate change
After the open discussion, the participants were divided into 2 groups namely (i) the “Barendra Group” and (ii) the
“Padma Group”. The two groups were given Flip charts with designed questionnaires to work on them and they
were separated. They were given about 1 hour for discussion among themselves and requested to come up with the
possible answers and appropriate recommendations. After 1 hour discussion, the two groups came back with their
possible answers of the questionnaires. The leaders of the group were requested to present their opinions. The
presentations are summarized and given in Tables 2-5 regarding the change in agricultural patterns, impact of
climate change on the use of water, impact of climate change on health and impact of climate change on the types of
agricultural crops respectively.
Because of climate change, there was much to very much changes in the irrigation sources at Rajshahi in the last 30
years as per 45.71%-51.42% respondents as can be seen from Table 2.
Table 2: Change in agricultural patterns
N=35 Change in last 30 years
Very little Little Moderate Much Very much
Change in irrigation source 0 0 0 45.71% 51.42%
Increase in the use of surface water 51.42% 0 0 45.71% 0
Increase in the use of ground water 0 0 0 0 97.14%
Change in the time of sowing seeds 0 17.14% 28.57% 51.42% 0
Decrease in the amount of crops 0 0 0 97.14% 0
Decrease in the quality of crops 0 5.71% 0 51.42% 0
Increase in the use of fertilizer 0 0 0 97.14% 0
Increase in the use of insecticides 0 0 0 97.14% 0
Use of ground water was increased very much (97.14% respondents), which is alarming. In agriculture, the time of
sowing seeds was also changed to adapt with the climate change. About 97.14% respondents were of the opinion the
18 Samarendra Karmakar et al. Climate Change and its Impact ……
production of crops was reduced due to climate change at Rajshahi and at the same time the quality of crops was
also decreased much. Use of fertilizer and insecticides was increased considerably (97.14% respondents). This use
of fertilizer and insecticides should be reduced and organic fertilizer should be used for increasing the fertility and
quality of land. Because of the reduction in the river flow, ground water is being used more now-a-days for
irrigation and drinking purposes. Due to the more use of ground water, its layer is going down.
The sources of drinking and cooking water were also changed due to climate change during the last 30 years as can
be seen from the Table 3. Before people used to drink river water, pond water and shallow tube well water and now
they are drinking water from shallow tube well and deep tube well. Even the sources of bathing water were also
changed much. People used to take bath in the river and ponds; now they bathe in shallow/deep tube well water
mainly. Number of ponds has become less because ponds are now filled up and used for cultivation and habitation
mostly. The river at Rajshahi has lost its flow conditions and its bed has risen up due to siltation and its capacity to
accommodate much water has been reduced significantly. As a result, the distance of the water sources has increased
considerably. The women are the key persons for maintaining household works; they are to fetch water from distant
places for household works. The quantity of water is also reduced. They emphasized on the harvesting of rain water,
which can be used for agriculture and household works.
Table 3: Impact of climate change on the use of water
N=35 Change in last 30 years
Moderate Much Very much
Change in the source of drinking water 45.71% 0 51.42%
Change in the source of cooking water 45.71% 45.71% 0
Change in the source of bathing water 28.57% 62.85% 0
Change in the source of irrigation water 0 45.71% 45.71%
Distance of the source water increased 80.0% 11.42% 0
Quality of drinking water decreased 45.71% 0 45.71%
Quantity of water decreased 45.71% 0 45.71%
Climate change has considerable impact on health especially the health of children and women as per the opinions
of the participants in the workshop (Table 4). The male are more resistant to diseases. The children and women are
affected by cold and cough, pneumonia, fever, cholera/diarrhea, jaundice/ hepatitis, asthma, etc. The children are
suffering from lack of nutrition. As per the opinions of the participants, diseases increased more in Rajshahi region
due to climate change. But the time of break out of diseases was not changed apparently. As a result the people are
facing more financial loss and social problems due to climate change (45.71-51.42% respondents) as can be seen
from Table 4.
Table 4: Impact of climate change on health
N=35 Change in last 30 years
Moderate Much/more Very much
Increase of deceases 0 34 (97.14%) 0
Time of diseases 0 0
Increase in labour 16 (45.71%) 18 (51.42%) 0
Increase in financial loss 0 16 (45.71%) 18 (51.42%)
Increase in social problem 0 18 (51.42%) 16 (45.71%)
Table 5: Impact of climate change on the types of agricultural crops
N=35 Change in last 30 years
Moderate Much Very much
Paddy 0 32 (91.42%) 0
Mango and Litchi 16 (45.71%) 16 (45.71%) 0
Fish 0 16 (45.71%) 16 (45.71%)
Vegetables 16 (45.71%) 16 (45.71%) 0
Wheat 16 (45.71%) 16 (45.71%) 0
Table 5 summarizes the opinions of the participants regarding the impact of climate change on the types of
agricultural crops. Production of paddy, mango, litchi and vegetables and wheat are being hampered due to climate
change. The “Challonbil” was a reservoir of huge quantity of water, lot of different species of fish and birds were
available there before. Native species of paddy used to be grown there. Now, this Challonbil is dried up and the
whole ecosystem was changed. Fishes and birds are not now available there. So, the people around the Challonbil
are facing financial crisis. Agriculture production in the Rajshahi region has decreased due to climate change and
Journal of Engineering Science 09(1), 2018, 11-20 19
this decrease in crop production occurred mostly in last 30 years. Original species of paddy and fish are being lost
due climate change and replace by artificial/breed species of fish. As a result, the people are suffering from
malnutrition.
4.4.3 Effect of Farakka dam on climate change at Rajshahi
In the group discussion, the effects of Farakka dam on climate change, agriculture, health and water quality were
discussed. The participants gave their opinions as follows:
i. The river flow has been reduced significantly.
ii. The river bed has filled up very much due to siltation for the reduction of the river flow. Some
rivers already died. As a result less water in the river and ponds is available now-a-days.
iii. More underground water is being used for irrigation and drinking purposes.
iv. The water quality is being deteriorated, causing health hazards.
v. Because of the less availability of water, the climate is changing at Rajshahi. Temperature is
increasing and rainfall is decreasing. Frequency of heat waves in summer and cold waves in
winter are increasing. Production of agricultural crops is decreasing.
vi. It has great impact on Challonbil, which remains almost dry in the dry season. Different species
of fish, which were available in the past, are no more in the Challonbil. Before many species of
birds used to live in this Challonbil. Now, these birds are not there.
4.4.4 Recommendations in the workshop
i. Organic fertilizer should be used in agricultural land for crop production since chemical fertilizer reduces
the fertility of land. Use of pesticides should be reduced.
ii. Climate change adapted crop patterns should be innovated so that crops can withstand the stresses due to
rising trend of temperature and decreasing trend in rainfall at Rajshahi.
iii. Appropriate adaptation techniques should be developed for facing the challenges of climate impacts in
long-term perspectives.
iv. It is necessary to develop and implement appropriate plans, strategies and programs to address the
problems arising from arsenic contamination of water in local and national perspectives.
v. Use of ground water for agriculture should be reduced considerably and arrangements be made for
harvesting of rain water.
vi. Native species of fish and crops should be grown instead of artificial crops and fishes.
vii. Water storage has to be increased by digging cannel and ponds so that more water would be
accommodated. The rivers, cannel, ponds and ‘Challonbil’ should be re-excavated for storage of water
coming through the Farakka Dam and rain water.
viii. Since building materials are good absorbers and emitters of heat, they increase the heat content in the
earth’s surface; the use of these materials should be restricted to inhibit the contribution to climate change.
ix The water flow of the Padma has been reduced due to Farakka Dam. For maintaining the navigability of the
Padma/Ganges, the Water Treaty needs to be revised through bilateral negotiation.
5 CONCLUSIONS
On the basis of the present study, the following conclusions can be drawn:
i. The trend in annual mean temperature at Rajshahi has a sharp increasing trend at 0.013°C/year during
the period 1981-2016. The seasonal mean temperature has increasing trends in pre-monsoon, monsoon
and post-monsoon seasons during 1981-2016, having 0.021, 0.024 and 0.004°C/year respectively. The
mean temperature in winter has decreasing trend at 0.007°C/year. It is interesting to note that the mean
temperature during the winter season has a slight increasing trend during the period 1990-2016.
ii. The annual rainfall at Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016 is decreasing trend at 6.968 mm/year. This
decreasing rate is alarming and is likely cause drought at Rajshahi in future. The seasonal rainfall
during pre-monsoon monsoon at Rajshahi has increasing trend 0.723 mm/year. The seasonal rainfall at
Rajshahi has decreasing trends in other seasons. The rates of decrease are -6.433, -0.669 and -0.532
mm/year during the monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons respectively. Of these, monsoon
season has the maximum decreasing rate of -6.433 mm/year. This indicates that the drought condition
is likely to increase at Rajshahi.
20 Samarendra Karmakar et al. Climate Change and its Impact ……
iii. The frequency of minimum temperature less than 10C (cold waves) over Rajshahi during 1981-2016
varies from 7 to 39 days in a year at Rajshahi and it has increasing trend at 0.035 days/year. The annual
frequency of days with maximum temperature >36°C has increasing tendency at Rajshahi at 0.655
days/year during 1981-2016.
iv. The continuation of the increase in the annual frequency of days with minimum temperature <10°C
and maximum temperature >36°C i.e. cold waves and heat waves would have tremendous impacts on
the agriculture sector and food security (crops, animals, etc.) in future and the situation would be more
aggravated in Rajshahi.
v. Inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability exists at Rajshahi. Rise in temperature at Rajshahi
will have profound effect on agriculture.
vi. Climate change will affect the use of water and its quality at Rajshahi. Drought is likely to affect
Rajshahi in the long run. Agricultural patterns are likely to change too.
vii. Because of the less availability of water, the climate is changing at Rajshahi. Temperature is
increasing and rainfall is decreasing. Frequency of heat waves in summer and cold waves in winter are
increasing. Production of agricultural crops is decreasing.
viii. Climate change adapted crop patterns should be innovated so that crops can withstand the stresses due
to rising trend of temperature and decreasing trend in rainfall at Rajshahi. Appropriate adaptation
techniques should be developed for facing the challenges of climate impacts in long-term perspectives.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The Authors wish to thank the Director of Bangladesh meteorological Department (BMD) for supplying relevant
meteorological data. Thanks are also due to the Executive Director of Environment and Population Research Centre
(EPRC) for giving the opportunity for undertaking the study.
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... According to Karmakar and Hassan (2018), due to less water supply, the climate at Rajshahi is shifting; also, the research finding shows that temperature is that of rising, and rainfall is declining. There is an increasing frequency of heatwaves in summer and cold waves in winter (Karmakar and Hassan, 2018). According to BMD (2020), Rajshahi City Corporation (RCC) is experiencing the highest temperatures between April and May (BBS, 2013). ...
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... Temperature rise in Rajshahi would have profoundly affect on farming and people's livelihood. According to Karmakar and Hassan (2018), due to less water supply, the climate at Rajshahi is shifting; also, the research finding shows that temperature is that of rising, and rainfall is declining. There is an increasing frequency of heatwaves in summer and cold waves in winter (Karmakar and Hassan, 2018). ...
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This study aimed at statistical analysis of the recent trend of climate change and prediction of future climate change scenarios with Global Climate Models (GCMs) and most importantly investigation on the impacts of climate change on rice production. The Satkhira district was taken as the study area, which represented the coastal zone of Bangladesh. There was a statistically nonsignificant increasing trend of annual maximum and minimum temperature and annual total rainfall through the period of 19502006. The trend analysis of seasonal rainfall for the period 19812006 could reveal that, from the last two decades the seasonal normal rainfall pattern has been altered. Rainfall in premonsoon and winter season had a decreasing trend whereas it had an increasing trend during monsoon and postmonsoon seasons. Temperature variations had an observable effect on crop yield. The summer crop Aus production was decreasing significantly. The production of Boro rice, a winter crop is increasing significantly with the increase of lowest minimum temperature. The interannual variation in the amount of winter season rainfall was little. Boro production, therefore, was insignificantly affected by this variable. However, correlation between the production and climatic variables was not statistically significant. In case of the future climate change prediction, GFDLTR predicted delta values ranging from 1.1 to 1.7 C for 2050, while it varied from 1.5 to 2.3 C for 2070. Whereas, UKTR suggested mean temperature increase was 1.5 to 2.1 C in 2050 and 1.2 to 2.7 C in 2070. According to HadCM2 generated delta values, temperature would increase 1.3 to 2.9 C in 2050 and 1.7 to 4.0 C in 2070. It could be seen that different GCMs predicted different sets of values for rainfall increase (or decrease). Among the three GCMs, GFDLTR predicted milder changes while HadCM2 suggested severe changes and the values increased with time. In case of rainfall, GFDLTR and UKTR both predicted a decreasing tendency in future during winter season (DJF). However, HadCM2 suggested that there would be higher precipitation (35.6% increase in 2050 and 48.9% increase in 2070) during the winter season (DJF), which will be beneficial for agriculture. Different crop responded differently under different climate change scenarios. Yield of Boro was reduced from 3.47 to 48.64% in calcareous soils, while, it was increased from 0.16 to 16.47% in noncalcareous soil conditions. In case of T. Aman, mainly increased yields (up to 49%) could be observed under rainfed conditions in future climate change scenarios. However, there was also declining trend of yields ranging from 1 to 12%. The most detrimental effects were observed in case of T. Aus. The yield decreased in all soil conditions and future climate scenarios. The per cent yield difference decreased from at least 5% up to 42%. In most cases, irrespective of crops and GCMs, climate change would have negative impact. Therefore, in the event of climate change the cropping pattern of the region may change considerably. Agriculture in Bangladesh is already under pressure both from increasing demands for food, and from problems of agricultural land and water resources depletion. The prospect of global climate change makes the issue particularly urgent.
Article
Climate Change is a hot issue in the world. Effect of climate change on yield of two varieties of boro rice has been assessed using the CERES Rice model of the DSSAT modeling system. The yield of BR3 and BR14 boro varieties for the years 2008, 2030, 2050 and 2070 have been simulated for 12 locations (districts) of Bangladesh, which were selected from among the major rice growing areas in different regions of Bangladesh. The CERES-Rice model uses a detailed set of crop specific genetic coefficients for predicting yield (BR3 and BR14) because “genetic coefficients” for these varieties are available in the DSSAT modeling system. Available data on soil and hydrologic characteristics of these locations, and typical crop management practice for boro rice were used in the simulations. The weather data required for the model (daily maximum and minimum temperatures, daily solar radiation and daily precipitation) were generated for the selected years and for the selected locations using the regional climate model PRECIS. The model predicted significant reduction in yield of both varieties of boro rice due to climate change; yield reductions of over 20% and 50% have been predicted for both rice varieties for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. Increases in daily maximum and minimum temperatures have been found to be primarily responsible for reduction in yield. Increases in incoming solar radiation and atmospheric carbon-di-oxide concentration increases rice yield to some extent, but their effect is not significant compared to the negative effects of temperature. Variations in rainfall pattern over the growing period have also been found to affect rice yield. Increasing temperatures and solar radiation have been found to reduce the duration of physiological maturity of the rice varieties. Model results also suggest that in addition to reducing yield, climate change may also make rice yield more vulnerable to transplanting date, predicting significant reduction in yield as transplanting date is delayed, especially beyond 15 January. DSSAT modeling system could be a useful for assessing possible impacts of climate change and management practices on different varieties rice and other crops.
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