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Frailty can be measured in relation to the accumulation of deficits using a frailty index. A frailty index can be developed from most ageing databases. Our objective is to systematically describe a standard procedure for constructing a frailty index.
This is a secondary analysis of the Yale Precipitating Events Project cohort study, based in New Haven CT. Non-disabled people aged 70 years or older (n = 754) were enrolled and re-contacted every 18 months. The database includes variables on function, cognition, co-morbidity, health attitudes and practices and physical performance measures. Data came from the baseline cohort and those available at the first 18-month follow-up assessment.
Procedures for selecting health variables as candidate deficits were applied to yield 40 deficits. Recoding procedures were applied for categorical, ordinal and interval variables such that they could be mapped to the interval 0-1, where 0 = absence of a deficit, and 1= full expression of the deficit. These individual deficit scores were combined in an index, where 0= no deficit present, and 1= all 40 deficits present. The values of the index were well fit by a gamma distribution. Between the baseline and follow-up cohorts, the age-related slope of deficit accumulation increased from 0.020 (95% confidence interval, 0.014-0.026) to 0.026 (0.020-0.032). The 99% limit to deficit accumulation was 0.6 in the baseline cohort and 0.7 in the follow-up cohort. Multivariate Cox analysis showed the frailty index, age and sex to be significant predictors of mortality.
A systematic process for creating a frailty index, which relates deficit accumulation to the individual risk of death, showed reproducible properties in the Yale Precipitating Events Project cohort study. This method of quantifying frailty can aid our understanding of frailty-related health characteristics in older adults.
There is no single generally accepted clinical definition of frailty. Previously developed tools to assess frailty that have been shown to be predictive of death or need for entry into an institutional facility have not gained acceptance among practising clinicians. We aimed to develop a tool that would be both predictive and easy to use.
We developed the 7-point Clinical Frailty Scale and applied it and other established tools that measure frailty to 2305 elderly patients who participated in the second stage of the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA). We followed this cohort prospectively; after 5 years, we determined the ability of the Clinical Frailty Scale to predict death or need for institutional care, and correlated the results with those obtained from other established tools.
The CSHA Clinical Frailty Scale was highly correlated (r = 0.80) with the Frailty Index. Each 1-category increment of our scale significantly increased the medium-term risks of death (21.2% within about 70 mo, 95% confidence interval [CI] 12.5%-30.6%) and entry into an institution (23.9%, 95% CI 8.8%-41.2%) in multivariable models that adjusted for age, sex and education. Analyses of receiver operating characteristic curves showed that our Clinical Frailty Scale performed better than measures of cognition, function or comorbidity in assessing risk for death (area under the curve 0.77 for 18-month and 0.70 for 70-month mortality).
Frailty is a valid and clinically important construct that is recognizable by physicians. Clinical judgments about frailty can yield useful predictive information.
Recognising frailty during pre-operative assessment is important. Frail patients experience higher mortality rates and are less likely to return to baseline functional status following the physiological insult of surgery. We evaluated the association between an initial clinical impression of frailty and all-cause mortality in 392 patients attending our vascular pre-operative assessment clinic. Prevalence of frailty assessed by the initial clinical impression was 30.6% (95% CI 26.0-35.2%). There were 133 deaths in 392 patients over a median follow-up period of 4 years. Using Cox regression, adjusted for age, sex, revised cardiac risk index and surgery (yes/no), the hazard ratio for mortality for frail vs. not-frail was 2.14 (95% CI 1.51-3.05). The time to 20% mortality was 16 months in the frail group and 33 months in the not-frail group. The initial clinical impression is a useful screening tool to identify frail patients in pre-operative assessment.
To estimate the future rate of primary total hip (THR) or knee (TKR) replacement in the UK to 2035 allowing for changes in population demographics and obesity.
Using age/gender/body mass index-specific incidence rates from a population-based cohort study of 50,000 THR and 45,609 TKR patients from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1991 and 2010, we projected future numbers of THR and TKR using two models: a static, estimated rate from 2010 applied to population growth forecasts to 2035, and a log-linear rate extrapolation over the same period. Both scenarios used population forecast data from the UK Office for National Statistics.
Assuming rates of THR and TKR for 2010, and given projected population changes in age, gender and BMI, the number of THRs and TKRs performed in the UK in 2035 is estimated to be, respectively: 95,877 and 118,666. By comparison, an exponential extrapolation of historical rates using a log-linear model producesmuch higher estimates of THR and TKR counts in 2035 at 439,097 and 1,219,362 respectively. Projected counts were higher for women than men. Assuming a changing (rather than fixed) future BMI distribution increases TKRs by 2035 but not THRs.
Using historical rates and population forecasts we have projected the number of THR/TKR operations in the UK up to 2035. This study will inform policymakers requiring estimates of future demand for surgery. Incorporating future forecasts for BMI into projections of joint replacement may be more relevant for TKR rather than THR.
Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
For most surgeons and many anaesthetists, patient frailty is currently the ‘elephant in the (operating) room’: it is easy to spot, but is often ignored. In this paper, we discuss different approaches to the measurement of frailty and review the evidence regarding the effect of frailty on peri-operative outcomes. We explore the limitations of ‘eyeballing’ patients to quantify frailty, and consider why the frail older patient, challenged by seemingly minor insults in the postoperative period, may suffer falls or delirium. Frailty represents a state of increased vulnerability to stressors, and older inpatients are exposed to multiple stressors in the peri-operative setting. Quantifying frailty is likely to increase the precision of peri-operative risk assessment. The Frailty Index derived from Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment is a simple and robust way to quantify frailty, but is yet to be systematically investigated in the pre-operative setting. Furthermore, the optimal care for frail patients and the reversibility of frailty with prehabilitation are fertile areas for future research.
The population of the United States (US) is growing and aging.The US Census Bureau projects that the number of Americans age 65 years and older will more than double between 2010 and 2050. The percentage of Americans 65 and older will grow from 13% to more than 20% of the total population by 2030, and the fastest growing segment of this group (individuals 85 years and older) is expected to triple in number over the next 4 decades.These changes in the age demographics of the US population are largely due to people living longer and the “baby boomer” generation
Peri-operative care of the elderly 2014: association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland
- R Griffiths
- F Beech
- A Brown
Griffiths R, Beech F, Brown A, et al.
Peri-operative care of the elderly 2014:
association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland. Anaesthesia 2014; 69
(Suppl 1): 81-98.
Peri-operative care of the elderly 2014: association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland
- Griffiths