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Abstract

The contribution of regression analysis (econometrics) to advertising and media decision-making is questioned and found wanting. Econometrics cannot be expected to estimate valid and reliable forecasting models unless it is based on extensive experimental data on important variables, across varied conditions. This article canvasses alternative, evidence-based methods that have been shown to be useful for forecasting problems. These methods are described with the hope that they are more widely used for marketing forecasting. The approaches include media and copy experiments, analyses of individual level single source data, and structured expert judgment.

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... However, these methods are either proprietary, rely on expensive data, or require analytical abilities beyond the skillset of practitioners. Furthermore, while it is true that additional variables often lead to more accurate results, the validity of these results are limited to a single set of data (Ehrenberg, Barnard & Sharp, 2000), are regularly skewed from the cherry-picking of input variables, and are prone to discovering spurious relationships (Dawes, Kennedy, Green & Sharp, 2018). Therefore the models themselves provide few contributions to real-life decision making and are often ignored in favour of less accurate methods, such as the Sainsbury Normal Method (SNM) (Caffyn & Sagovsky, 1963). ...
... That is, not only where the SNM estimates are weighed by age, or by gender, or by location, but weighted by the various combinations of age, gender, and location. Although this may provide more accurate net-reach estimations, would the results, therefore, be restricted to that single situation (Ehrenberg et al., 2000), or would the requirement for marketers to select how many, and which segmentation variables limit their broader applicability (Dawes et al., 2018). ...
Article
For almost nine decades, advertisers have relied on the Sainsbury Normal Method (SNM) to estimate net-reach where single-source data are either too expensive or unavailable. To the best of the authors' knowledge, no SNM validation studies have included catalogues, smartphone applications, websites, social media, or cinema. While few studies have applied the SNM across media, no study has addressed the limitation of the SNM, that is, the implied assumption of audience homogeneity. Given that audiences do differ by age within any medium, and across media, there is a need to incorporate audience heterogeneity into the method. The authors introduce the Sainsbury Weighted Method (SWM) which provides more accurate within medium net-reach estimations in 82% of the 9,680 cases analysed, with an average accuracy improvement for within medium net-reach estimations of 0.6 percentage points (or 13%). For across media net-reach, the SWM estimations are more accurate in 77% of the 968 cases analysed, improving the average accuracy by 0.5 percentage points (or 49%). Reach Word count 6864 Summary Statement of Contribution If within medium or across media audience profiles are dissimilar; then in the majority of cases, our new method improves net-reach estimations for catalogue, smartphone application, newspaper, television, radio, magazine, cinema, outdoor, website, and social media. The new formula (the Sainsbury Weighted Method) does this by overcoming the shortcomings of the previous formula (the Sainsbury Normal Method). The easy to calculate estimations are especially useful for brand managers and media schedulers who do not have access to single-source data which provides observed net-reach. 2
... The greatest research of the theoretical and practical issues of marketing pricing policy was found in the works of Balabanova L., Osypenko S., Romanchyk T. (Osypenko et al., 2020) The contribution of classic machine learning methods like regression analysis to marketing decisionmaking is quite important, but there are alternative methods. Dawes et al. (2018) research evidence-based methods that have been shown to be useful for forecasting. Jin et al. (2017), Zhang and Vaver (2017) recommend using Bayesian hierarchical modelling. ...
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This article describes the history of the journal published by the UK Market research Society (MRS). The reasons for introducing a journal are discussed, and the competitive context, at that time and onwards. Changes in the format, title and content of the journal over time are described, and its evolution from an in-house production to its current status within the journal portfolio of a leading international academic publishing house. The changing nature of the two main communities with the most interest in the journal, academics and practitioners, are described and the impact on the journal are discussed. Finally, the article summarises some of the many key contributions that the journal has made to the body of knowledge and evidence in the fields of market and social research.
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Reports that 3 principles of human judgment apply to the decisions of a graduate admissions committee. The 1st of these principles is that a linear combination of the variables considered by the committee does a better job of predicting graduate success than does the committee; the 2nd principle is that the committee's judgment may itself be represented "paramorphically" by a linear combination of these variables, and the 3rd that this paramorphic representation is superior to the committee in predicting graduate success. (42 ref.) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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The intelligence, measurement, knowledge, models, and desktop best practice tools discussed in this article are the types of products being developed by the 21st-century business researchers who are determined to add quantifiable value to the business enterprise and the fact-based support being used by the brand and agency teams that are determined to win in the marketplace, quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year. By accounting for, improving, and achieving a return on advertising investments consistent with quarterly business objectives, what is traditionally viewed as a cost of doing business can be transformed to wise investments in the business.
Econometrics: Get the Best from Econometric Modelling
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Cook, L. (2014) Econometrics: Get the Best from Econometric Modelling. In Admap, United Kingdom: Warc, pp.1-6.
Always Be Testing: The Complete Guide to Google Website Optimizer
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Eisenberg, B., Quarto-vonTivadar, J., and Davis, L.T. (2009) Always Be Testing: The Complete Guide to Google Website Optimizer. United States of America: John Wiley & Sons.
Two Views of Tv Scheduling -How Far Apart?
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Digital Giants Are 'Weaponising' Attribution and It's Driving Short-Termism
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Hickman, A. (2018) Digital Giants Are 'Weaponising' Attribution and It's Driving Short-Termism. Available at: http://www.adnews.com.au/news/digital-giants-are-weaponisingattribution-and-it-s-driving-short-termism.
P&G Shifts Marketing-Mix Biz to Nielsen, Demandtec for Faster Roi Reads Available
  • J Neff
Neff, J. (2011) P&G Shifts Marketing-Mix Biz to Nielsen, Demandtec for Faster Roi Reads Available.
at Last, Long Term Ad Effectiveness Measurement, the Single Source Solution
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How Diageo Is Emphasising Data in Marketing Decisions
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McQuater, K. (2018) How Diageo Is Emphasising Data in Marketing Decisions. Available at: https://www.research-live.com/article/news/how-diageo-is-emphasising-data-in-marketingdecisions/id/5035932.
Marketing Mix Modeling on Trial
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Moriarty, P. and Joseph, J. (2013) Marketing Mix Modeling on Trial. Chicago: IRI, pp.1-4.
Discovering the Long Term Effects of Your Advertising
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Webb, J. (2013) Discovering the Long Term Effects of Your Advertising. Available at: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jon-webb/marketing-long-term-effects_b_4355171.html.
P&G shifts marketing-mix biz to Nielsen, Demandtec for Faster Roi Reads
  • J Neff