Do Forecasters of Dangerous Manmade Global Warming Follow the Science?

Abstract

We examined two papers with long-range forecasts of global mean temperatures (IPCC 2007, and Green, Armstrong, & Soon 2009) that included forecasts of global mean temperatures, and one paper that used the IPCC projections to forecast a dramatic decline in the population of polar bears for compliance with the scientific method. Ratings for compliance with science by the authors and other raters found that the IPPC projections and the forecasts of polar bear endangerment were not scientific. On the other hand, Green, Armstrong, and Soon's forecast of no change in global mean temperatures, was the product of the scientific method. In particular, Green, Armstrong & Soon tested a reasonable alternative hypothesis.

Full text

Do Forecasters of Dangerous
Manmade Global Warming
Follow the Science?

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
ournal of Forecasting and the International Journal of
Forecasting
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000/%0
International Symposium on Forecasting
1'#2!"#2
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How to benet from this
presentation
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3
/%

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/%
/%4
),/

!

Al Gore’s forecast in 2007
56/+
Assault on Reason 7
!""$89
:;%%%
‘tipping
points’ %#"
,impossible
irretrievabledamage to the planet’s
habitability<=
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%)''8
?

Re'ect...
@
•3/
7'8
!""$AAAA
•(%4
/
AAA
/B,
AA

Armstrong’s 10-year bet with
Mr. Gore
C
+/complex situation %high
uncertainty
Mr. Gore and the
IPCC’s forecast Armstrong’s
forecast
:=?°'--
%
5/D

-,9
3D


>-!#
'
'%
and)''E



7
+ 5

8

Gore claimed recently that his
forecasts have been accurate
so far. True?
F
G
/./47
-38
Global
temperatu
res: 2007
(bet base
year) to
May 2018

Is the above result surprising
in favoring
the no-change hypothesis?
>)%
-when
one uses the complete time series data
5
)31G4
$

Do those favoring the global
warming hypothesis follow the
science?
;D/
DNew
York Times
:%=
H
..,
%.
One minute is too long and one day is too
short for this task. We spent months on it
2

Dening the scientic method
.
9
# /
! /.,%
? /
@ /
C /
F D7/.H8
$ -
2 78
./
!@
D.
 I

Rating compliance to the
scientic method
#H,
%,%
%
!H9:
/=
?G/9
:MR/H
T=7; (8
•
•HJ
 #"

Who should use the ratings?
/9
1. Researchers%.
%
2. Universities 

.
3. FundersH.

4. Scientic journals/
.
5. Managers<
6. Courts
7. News media..,
/
..
8. Government regulators 

##

Who should make the
ratings?
1. Researchers,%

../
.
2. Journals
,%
//
?"
3. Courts
.
#!

Are compliance ratings
reliable?
•,%
D-/
$,

• %/
!C

•%
%
complied with science9
 >
/ KF
 K2 #?

Are there published long-term forecasts of global
warming that comply with the scientic method?
)'',.
/
)'':long-term prediction of future
climate states is not possible.=
L
•%%scienti%c

•:=78/
DEopinions
B3LScenarios/
/
%.7
%8 #@

Compliance with science
ratings
/independent
%.
9
•D7%J
8
•
#C

Compliance with science: Mean
temperatures
Expert opinion
forecast a
Forecast by
experts on
forecasting
methods b

DE "M2 2M2

E "M2 FM2
'D
 "M2 $CM2
#F
!""$)''/%
/+N7!""I8
FD%
)''@ 
+NE7!""I8
%%
.
 78


Ex ante forecast validity
%+N7!""I8
)''D
%<
•5<##"%
#@C-

•5<I##""
%#!F
D.
/D

7%.-
/
;
8
#$

Compliance with science: polar
bears
Four climate experts "M2
Three research
assistants !M2
Consensus of seven
raters "M2
#2
Link to USGS report:+
5
1&G

$D
%+/%
%.
 78


Polar bear policy and the scientic
method

+/
.9
/9
•:+5
1&G=
G%O
•
/

•,
:%=
.
!""$
%
#I

No need to believe our ratings
B9
•''!""$91
;,
7)''/8
•6''5/
G;,
7#""--/+
8
•5 -%1
!#
P'
(9
7/-,
-8
!"
+
78
+
7G58

The three-legged stool for
climate policy
&H.9
# /-/

! Q

? /.

5H

No scienti%c forecasts support any leg.
!#

Conclusions
# ,D
identify scienti%c forecasts/%

/%
%/unable.
H
! 3D
D/D

.
? 1,%
comply with the scienti%c method 
no dangerous long-term trend/
 !!

Additional Materials:
/

-,
5%:=
'%
-
3-/,
 !?

Additional tests of
global warming forecasting
procedures
# 57
,8
! + 5
? KE <7D
8
!@

1. Application of the Forecasting
Audit to
global mean temperatures
5H,%
-/

/+N
)'':/=/
9
6$!2I
7:'
/=:5
=8
-/
//
4
!C

2. Golden Rule of
Forecasting:
“Be Conservative,” or
:5%

=
1/
cumulative knowledge/9
#
!-/
:+ 5=
:=
!F

When to be
conservative
All/L
especially%9
# 'D
! 
? /9
–/
–
!$

Golden Rule of Forecasting
Checklist
Procedure: 1%!2
/
/<

# GQ%%+ 
#"I%

! 
/?#R$"
Q<
:+ 5',=!2

Golden Rule applied to IPCC
scenarios
+ 5',%
)'':/=-

'/+
!"+ ',
9
S )''%none
S -%95%
#2C#-#I$C
C2<
I##""
7;38-C"-
<%"!@T'
3)''"?T'%--
%#!F-

!I

The “Precautionary Principle”
violates the Golden Rule of
Forecasting
/%
:=
%7
/
8H

.
+K%E
Nineteen Eighty-Four
?"

3. Occam’s Razor
H/
9
#
!,%
?
@

%Qcomplexity
/7?!
%I$89
a) NoneD

/8 'D/!$R

:D9=%
/!"#C
?#

Simple Forecasting Checklist
ratings:
IPCC projections vs. no-change
forecasts
Our Average Compliance Ratings 7R
8
)'' >'
 #I IF 
//
Do you own and send us your ratings and reasons!
L
#2C#-#I$C
C2<I#
#"")''%
#!F
- ?!

The Seer-Sucker Theory
D
%.

/-,9
:>%D
D,%
D=
??

Warming alarmists do not forecast,
they create “scenarios” to use in
computer simulations
# 
/%%
%=
a. BiasedL
7+NG!""#8
! /D
DE
/%%
D/
-DE9
 -,
/ ,E!"-D
?@

Two additional scientic forecast
s of long-term global mean tempera
tures (2014)
9
%
#.%
/!""$
!)-
%
?.<D

?C

Which hypothesis was
the
most accurate?
?F
3D/'9
+N7!"#@8

Evidence-based checklists
of forecasting methods and
principles
--,
9
Methods and Principles: Evidence-based Chec
klists
?$