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Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change: Ç oruh River Basin, Turkey

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Depending on the increased energy needs, a large number of dams have been built around the world. These dams have significant impacts on river ecology and climate change. When the climate change scenarios are examined, it is stated that the annual average temperature in Turkey will increase by 2.5-4 degrees in the future years, the south of the country will be opposed to the severe drought threat, and the northern regions will have a flood risk. In particular, it can be predicted that many dams and dam lakes built in the North of Turkey may increase the impact of climate change. In this study, the effects of the dams constructed in Ç oruh basin on climate change are examined. Environmental and ecological problems of dam reservoirs have been examined. As a result of the data received from meteorological stations, it was determined that temperature and rainfall changes in the region. In this direction, solution proposal is presented.
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Advances in Environmental Research, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2018) 121-138
DOI: https://doi.org/10.12989/aer.2018.7.2.121 121
Copyright © 2018 Techno-Press, Ltd.
http://www.techno-press.org/?journal=aer&subpage=7 ISSN: 2234-1722 (Print), 2234-1730 (Online)
Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate
change: Ç oruh River Basin, Turkey
Egemen Aras
*
Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Technology, Karadeniz Technical University, 61830 Trabzon, Turkey
(Received October 19, 2017, Revised June 14, 2018, Accepted June 19, 2018)
Abstract. Depending on the increased energy needs, a large number of dams have been built around the
world. These dams have significant impacts on river ecology and climate change. When the climate change
scenarios are examined, it is stated that the annual average temperature in Turkey will increase by 2.5-4
degrees in the future years, the south of the country will be opposed to the severe drought threat, and the
northern regions will have a flood risk. In particular, it can be predicted that many dams and dam lakes built
in the North of Turkey may increase the impact of climate change. In this study, the effects of the dams
constructed in Çoruh basin on climate change are examined. Environmental and ecological problems of dam
reservoirs have been examined. As a result of the data received from meteorological stations, it was
determined that temperature and rainfall changes in the region. In this direction, solution proposal is
presented.
Keywords: Coruh Valley; climate change; ecology; environmental; multiple dam
1. Introduction
Freshwater, seawater, coastal and terrestrial biodiversity have been threatened by the use of
water resources by humans. The global threat is 11-25% for terrestrial vertebrates and 13-65% for
fresh water groups. While the impacts of large dams on freshwater resources are emphasized, these
structures should be examined for significant impacts on terrestrial biodiversity. The flow of 60%
of rivers around the world is controlled. There are over 40,000 large dams. The construction of
dams and reservoirs affects the biological diversity of fresh waters. International agreements and
organizations have developed standards to reduce the negative impacts of people on biodiversity
(Maingi 2002). The most endangered species in the ecosystem are freshwater organisms. Dams are
one of the main causes of this danger. The greatest parts of the dam damages are caused by the
rivers impinging on the natural flow patterns and blocking the migration routes of the water
creatures. This causes objections to the dams and their operation (Berkün et al. 2008). Although
the effects of dams on river ecology vary widely, it is possible, according to many researchers
statements (Baxter 1977, Ludwig 1982, Dudgeon 1995, Sadler 1996, Zhao et al. 2010, Aras 2012,
Zhao et al. 2013, Skoulikaris and Ganoulis 2017) to collect them in two general categories, namely
Corresponding author, Professor, E-mail: egemen@ktu.edu.tr
Egemen Aras
the presence of the dam-reservoir and the effect of the operation of the dam.
We can explain the impacts of the operation of the dam as a change of downstream hydrology,
change of downstream water quality and change of diversity of habitats in rivers, onshore and
floodplains due to the prevention of floods. Also we can explain the impacts of the presence of the
dam and the reservoir as a failure of the dam's position in the valley (habitat loss), deterioration of
the morphology of the downstream side due to the changing sediment load (erosion), change in
water quality on the downstream side (river temperature, nutrient load, turbidity, dissolved gas
quantity, heavy metal and mineral concentrations) and blocking of organism movements and
reduction of biological diversity (Toprak et al. 2013). On the other hand, socio-economic and
cultural influences also have positive and negative effects from the construction phase of the dam.
In the construction phase, the value of the land varies depending on the nature and size of the
underwater land. The local economy is reviving due to the work force at the construction stage.
This revival has a positive effect on infrastructure services and social services (school, health
facility, etc). The dam lake is also a resource for recreation and aquaculture production. However,
the loss of cultural values can be a problem because the natural and historical assets on the site are
not protected.
After the construction of the dams, the flow conditions at the downstream part vary depending
on the operating conditions and the peak values are lost. The changes in the amount of flow in the
natural environment are a display for the creatures in the ecosystem (for example: determining
migration times). These natural flow values, which are important for the life of the water, lose their
ecological value after the dam construction and the structure of the creatures is deteriorating
(Barrow 1981, Alam et al. 1995, Canter 1999, Zeng et al. 1998).
It is known that large water bodies are influential on environmental climate. This effect can be
expected to manifest itself as a moist and temperate structure in terrestrial climate zones.
Hydroelectric power plants and dams have climatic, hydrological, ecological, socio-economic and
cultural effects. The water collecting part of a hydropower generating plant (dam reservoir) creates
environmental impact. Climatic effects occur because of the larger surface area of the dam lake
and the evaporation. In this way, the humidity of the air increases and the temperature,
precipitation, and wind phenomena vary. In this case, natural vegetation, agricultural plants and
aquatic terrestrial animals on the site are suddenly changing and adaptable species are continuing
their lives (Williams and Veltrop 1991, Zhao et al. 2006).
The most important parameter of the effect of dams on climate change is greenhouse gas
production, even if it is within certain limits. Dams cause climate change and therefore global
warming because they have the danger of methane gas release. There is a risk that the dam lake
will release methane gas instead of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Because the plants in the reservoir
are rotting and the amount of dissolved oxygen in the reservoir comes to very low levels. The
effect of methane gas released to the atmosphere on global warming is greater than that of carbon
dioxide (ICOLD 1997).
2. Çoruh River basin development project
2.1 Characteristics of Çoruh Basin
The Ç oruh basin contains some parts of Bayburt, Erzurum and Artvin in north-east of Turkey.
The Ç oruh river, which gives the name to the basin, originates from the Mescit mountains within
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Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change...
Table 1 Streams and creeks flowing into Coruh River
Streams/Creek
Drainage area (km2)
Streams/Creek
Drainage area (km2)
Pulur Creek
20
Hatila Creek
223.6
Oltu Creek
687.7
Altıparmak Creek
860
Tortum Creek
2000
Gungormez Stream
65
Berta Creek
5848
Cala Stream
93.2
Çavuslar Stream
62.3
Çamlıkaya Stream
124
Aralık Stream
72
Aksu Stream
224
Deriskel Stream
178
Baskoy Stream
63
Cihala Stream
11.7
Capan Stream
153
Murgul Stream
360.6
Anuri Stream
113
Karatas Stream
116
Karakoc Stream
90
the boundaries of Erzurum province. After passing through the border of Erzurum province, the
Coruh river passes to Artvin province and leaves the country boundaries at a height of
approximately 50 m. It is poured from the borders of Georgia to the Black Sea. The Coruh River
main arm length is about 296 km. The Coruh basin has an area of about 20,000 km2 and the
average amount of rainfall per m2 in the basin is about 480 mm and the basin water potential is
about 6.50 billion m3. The basin is characterized by the climatic characteristics of the classical
continental climate in Bayburt, while the Mediterranean climate features are observed in the
regions where the altitude is lower in the downstream parts of the river. There are many mountains
on the level of 2500-3000-3500 m in the basin. Some of those mountains are Kaçkar Mountain
(3932 m) and Altıparmak Mountain (3562 m). The area under the 500 m of the basin is about 400
km2. Because of this feature, Ç oruh river is the fastest flowing river of Turkey (Aydogan et al.
2016). The important creek and streams that drain their waters into the Coruh River are given in
Table 1.
The Coruh River is considered as one of the most suitable basins for both dam and river type
power plants due to its high shortfall in short distance. Because of the characteristic feature of the
Coruh basin, the continental climate is the transition from the temperate climate as the coastal
region progresses to the inner regions. The city of Artvin has a moist climax. The winters are cool,
the summers warm. The city of Erzurum has semi-arid-less moist climates. The winters are cold
and the summers are warm. Bayburt has a dewy muddy city. The winters are cold and the summers
are warm. The drought is increasing as you go to the inner zone. The average annual precipitation
in Hopa-Kemalpaşa along the Black Sea coast is 2754 mm. The average precipitation is 1250 mm
in Borçka, 689 mm in Artvin Province, 446 mm in Ardanuç, 295 mm in Yusufeli, 440 mm in İspir
It is 353 mm in Oltu. If we look at the average rainfall for many years; It is 716,8 mm in Artvin,
405,3 mm in Erzurum and 442,8 mm in Bayburt. The annual precipitation in Artvin is above the
Turkey average of 643 mm.
Çoruh Basin is located in the Colchic Region of the Euro-Siberian Flora Region. When the
local characteristics are taken into consideration, Mediterranean-based taxa are frequently
encountered between 200-400 meters elevations along the Çoruh Valley. The forest formations in
the region are spreading as very moist temperate broadleaved forests (alder forests, chestnut
forests and beech forests), moist-cold coniferous forests, dry forests and bush formations. In
addition, there are several fish species in the Coruh River, mainly carp and mullet.
123
Egemen Aras
There is significant precipitation in the province of Artvin. Even in arid months, the amount of
rainfall is quite high. According to Köppen-Geiger, the climate is Cfb. The annual average
temperature of Artvin is 11.8. The average annual precipitation is 1168 mm. The average values
for the city are given in Table 2 (MGM 2017). The Coruh basin land use is given in Table 3.
2.2 Ecological importance of Coruh River Basin
Çoruh Valley is a region with ecologically significant features both nationally and
internationally. One of the 122 important plant areas determined in Turkey within the scope of
Turkeys Important Plant Areas Study" is Çoruh Valley Important Plant Area (IPA). A large
part of this area is located within Artvi borders. The Coruh Valley IPA covers 162,834 hectares,
including the central and lower sections of the Coruh River.
The mountains around the river rise up to 3000 m within 15 km, while the valley floor drops
from 450 m to 75 m on the border of Georgia. The fact that the climate is so soft has allowed the
Mediterranean vegetation elements to develop in the basin. There are forests, small scattered
peanut pine (Pinus pinea) and pseudomorphs in the lower parts of the basin while there are large
dry steeps on the slopes of the valley. The Coruh Valley has an extraordinary and rich fluoride.
Some families are represented at very high rates in the IPA flor with about 750 taxa. It is known
that about 104 of these taxa are rarely found throughout the country. The fact that the area contains
so many rare taxa around the country is rare in a single river valley (WWF 2017).
Table 2 Average values in Artvin Province (1926-2016)
ARTVİN
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
Average
temperature
(C)
3.9
7.1
11.9
15.9
18.8
20.8
21.0
18.1
14.0
9.1
4.5
12.3
Average
highest (C)
temperature
8.2
12.3
17.8
21.9
24.2
25.7
26.3
23.8
19.5
13.3
7.7
17.2
Average lowest
temperature
(C)
0.3
2.8
7.1
11.2
14.2
16.8
17.1
14.1
10.2
5.6
1.6
8.4
Average
sunrise time
(hours)
3.2
4.2
5.2
6.3
7.1
6.5
6.6
6.3
4.4
3.1
2.1
57.2
Average
number of
rainy days
12.7
13.2
12.8
13.9
12.7
8.2
8.1
8.5
10.9
10.8
11.7
136.3
Monthly total
rainfall
averages
(kg/m2)
72.3
60.8
54.2
52.2
50.0
30.9
29.6
37.5
61.4
77.0
88.5
700.2
Between 1926 and 2016
The highest
temperature
18.9
21.5
28.4
34.4
36.4
39.0
42.0
43.0
39.5
33.9
27.9
20.9
43.0
The lowest
temperature
-16.1
-11.9
-9.8
-7.1
-0.6
3.7
9.5
9.5
4.2
-1.6
-8.2
-10.8
-16.1
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Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change...
Table 3 Land use of Ç oruh Basin (Toker 2010)
Land Use
Land (Hec)
Land (%)
Forest and Semi-Natural Areas
1650427
81.52
Agricultural Areas
361978
17.88
Construction Areas
6750
0.33
Surface Areas
4452
0.22
Wetlands
1047
0.05
TOTAL
2024654
100
Fig. 1 Longitudinal profile of the Coruh River development plan
It is estimated that the Coruh Valley has been covered with forest cover largely from the past.
The pseudomakers (a kind of plant cover, a similar damp bush) are quite common along the valley
(300-850 m) stretching between Yusufeli and Borçka. The characteristics of the Coruh Valley are
further enriched with various wetland vegetation coverings.
As mentioned above, there are a large number of species at risk both globally and nationally,
with large dams, mining activities, road constructions and illegal or excessive collection initiated
in the Coruh Valley, which has a very rich plant variety.
2.3 Multiple dam project
The work of General Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development
Administration (EIE) in Çoruh Basin started with current measurements in 1938. Studies started in
1954 in the main and side branches of the Coruh River continued until the year 2007. The General
Directorate has carried out a total of 46 hydroelectric power plant projects, including 16 dams and
30 regulators in Coruh River and its sidewalks. The total installed capacity of 16 projects
developed on the Coruh River and its side arms is 3105 MW and the hydroelectric potential is 9
billion 614 million kWh (Toker 2010).
Hydroelectric potential of four dams built in lower and middle Coruh Basin (Muratlı, Borçka,
Deriner, Yusufeli Dams) is 1625 MW. And their installed capacity is 5 billion 428 million kWh
per year. A total of 162 river type HEPPs were planned in the Çoruh Basin after the Private
125
Egemen Aras
Fig. 2 Dams and HEPP projects on the Coruh Basin development plan (Akpınar et al. 2011)
Sector Water Usage Agreements opened with Turkish Law No: 4628. The total installed capacity
of these projects is 2875 MW and the annual energy production is 8 billion 626 million kWh.
Thus, the total energy potential of the basin is 16 billion kilowatt hours per year, when all projects
(operating, built and planned) are considered. All the projects in Ç oruh basin are given in Fig. 1.
The aim of many dam constructions on the Coruh River is to meet the electricity needs of the
country from renewable energy sources.
Muratlı, Borçka, Artvin and Deriner dams on the main arm and Arkun, Güllübağ and Ayvalı
dams on the side branches have been completed and they are in operation. The Yusufeli dam is
under construction. In the middle of 2017, it is considered to start building the dam body (Fig. 2).
Other dams are in the planning stage. Muratlı Dam has a storage capacity of 75 million m3, Borcka
Dam has a storage capacity of 419 million m3 and Artvin Dam has a storage capacity of 167
million m3. The storage capacity of the Deriner dam, which is one of the biggest dams in Turkey
and the world, is 1969 million m3.
Muratlı Dam is located at a distance of 17 km from the town of Borçka in the province of
Artvin, 2 km from the town of Muratlı and 100 m from the border of Georgia. The dam was started
to be built in September 1999. On 2 June 2005, the dam started to produce electricity with two
turbines, each with a capacity of 57.5 MWe. The dam type is filled with rock body and the lake
area from the normal water level of the dam is 4.10 km2. The annual average flow is 6060 million
and the precipitation area is 19748 km².
Borcka Dam is a clay-based, rock-filled dam built on an alluvium, 2.5 km south-southwest of
Borçka town center and 25 km north-west of Artvin province. Borçka Dam and HEPP facility
construction works started on 01.09.1999 day. As of 08.04.2007, the energy production started at
the dam, and at the end of February 2008, a total of 634948 MWh of power was produced, 570804
MWh for the first district and 64144 MWh for the second district. The precipitation area of the
dam is 19255 km² and the annual average flow is 5.66 billion m³.
Artvin Dam is 30 km downstream of Artvin Yusufeli District and 20 km downstream of Oltu
126
Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change...
Stream. The average annual flow is 3837 million and the precipitation area is 15540 km². The
height of the dam, which is the arch type dam, is 180 meters. The installed power will be 332,00
MW and the total energy will be 1026,00 GWh per year with 116,20 meter height. The first unit
was launched on December 10, 2015, the second unit was launched on February 3, 2016 with a
capacity of 11609 MW and electricity production started.
The Deriner Dam and Hydroelectric Power Plant are located on the Coruh River in the Eastern
Black Sea Region of Turkey and in the Artvin City Center. Deriner Dam is the third dam from the
downstream in Çoruh project.
Deriner Dam, which is the first key dam on the Coruh River, is Turkey's largest dam among the
Double Curvature Concrete Arch Dams and the third largest dam in the world. The Deriner Dam is
planned to have a height of 249 m, a length of 720 m and a width of 18 meters in crest. The
average annual flow is 4.84 billion m3 and the regulation rate is 94%. It has the second largest
reservoir with a storage volume of 1.97 billion m3 on the Coruh Basin. With this feature, it will
also undertake the task of regulating reservoirs of downstream dams (DSI 2017) (Fig. 3). After the
dam was opened on December 12, 2012, the first turbine began producing electricity on July 5,
2013, the second and third turbines on August 2, 2013, and the fourth and last turbine on October
2, 2013.
(a) Muratlı Dam
(b)Borçka Dam
(c) Artvin Dam
(d) Deriner Dam
Fig. 3 Four large dams (in operation) on the Coruh Basin Project
127
Egemen Aras
3. Impacts of the project on the basin
3.1 The situation in Turkey
The importance of climate in human life is how climate affects social and economic life. Many
national and international organizations, central and local governments and non-governmental
organizations are striving to identify the changes that can occur in the climate. The most important
of these efforts is the modelling work. With the development of technology, the variables that
express the environmental conditions can be found in the models in more detail. Climate models
have been used since 1970s with the use of computers for scientific purposes. In the first models,
only the atmospheric parameters were studied. Later, parallel to the developments, factors such as
land surface, oceans, sea ice, sulphate, aerosols, carbon cycle, dynamic vegetation and chemistry
of the atmosphere are the input parameters to the models (Ö nol and Semazzi 2009, Demircan et al.
2014, Demircan et al. 2017). The influence of the electricity consumption of the climate is also
investigated (Ang et al. 2017).
Climate is the average weather condition experienced in large time spans and larger areas.
Climate normal are averages of consecutive thirty years calculated from climate data. Using
climate norms is a crucial tool for building global assessment and climate monitoring work.
Scientists, international institutions and organizations use climate reference periods of 1961-1990,
1971-2000 and 1981-2010 in national and regional based climate monitoring, climate trend,
climate change and climate model studies (Özdoğan 2011).
In the context of climate change, it is predicted that there will be serious risks in the river
basins of Turkey in new climatic conditions (Özdoğan 2011). One of these is the decrease in the
amount of rainfall especially in the inner parts of Anatolia and the basins in the south, especially
the Euphrates-Dicle basin. The second is that the increasing temperatures cause changes in the
rainfall type and the winter rainfall turns into rain (Sen et al. 2011). Snow is an important source
of water throughout the year. Also, increased temperatures will cause premature ejaculation in the
snow. The third problem is the risk of excessive rainfall in the western and northern coastal areas
of Anatolia, especially in summer. These extreme rainfalls can cause floods. Also increased
temperatures; it could lead to an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events
such as storms, hail, and hoses (Fujihara et al. 2008, Evans 2009, Hemming et al. 2010, Bozkurt
et al. 2015).
Turkey is located in a large climatic region in the western part of the subtropical belt valley
called Mediterranean climate. In Turkey, which is surrounded by sea on three sides and has an
average altitude of about 1100 m, many subclimate types have developed. This diversity of climate
types is related to the fact that Turkey is located on a transitional zone. The reason for this
transition zone is that Turkey has various pressure systems and types of air coming from polar and
tropical zones. It is also important that the complexity of topographic features of country. Since
Turkey is in a region that provides transitions between tropical and polar regions, it cannot be said
that meteorological events are as stable as tropical and polar regions. Turkey will be affected by
the negative aspects of global warming (especially weakening of water resources, forest fires,
drought and desertification and ecological degradation). The country is among the countries in the
risk group in terms of the potential effects of global warming.
The projected area of Turkey is 77,945 million hectares. 28,054 million ha of this area is
agricultural land. 25,753 ha of this area is irrigable. However, due to technical and economic
reasons, the amount of land that can be irrigated with surface and underground water resources is
128
Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change...
Table 4 Land use status of dam and HEPP facilities in Artvin provincial borders (Yıldırımer 2013)
Muratlı
Dam
Borçka
Dam
Deriner
Dam
Artvin
Dam
Yusufeli
Dam
Bayram
Dam
Bağlık
Dam
Total
(ha)
%
Stand
Map
Settlement
Areas
-
-
34,8
3,7
24,1
0,1
-
62,7
0,77
Agricultural
Areas
159,4
167,2
469
60,4
1104
82,9
1
2043,9
25,12
Forest and
Natural Ar.
41,5
437,3
1945,7
345,9
1974,2
262,5
35
5042,1
61,97
Water Masses
225,2
424,7
221,5
-
116,7
-
-
988,1
12,14
CLC
Map
Settlement
Areas
-
69,7
-
-
26,9
-
-
96,6
1,19
Agricultural
Areas
11,5
26,2
535,6
66,2
1107,1
19,4
-
1766
21,78
Forest and
Natural Ar.
45,9
95
1679,6
145,6
1788
326,1
36
4116,5
50,59
Water Masses
368,7
838,3
455,5
198,2
297
-
-
2157,7
26,52
TOTAL (ha)
426,1
1029,2
2671
410
3219
345,5
36
8137
100
8.5 million ha. Currently, 4.9 million hectares of this area can be irrigated and construction of new
facilities is required for the remaining 3.6 million hectares of agricultural land to be irrigated in the
coming years. According to 2002 DSİ data (DSI 2017), it is seen that the total water use in Turkey
is 40 billion / year, with 33,90 billion of surface water and 6,23 billion of groundwater
per year in Turkey. This figure shows that less than half of the economically usable water potential
(about 110 billion m³/year) is used (Fakio 2012).
3.2 Land use changes in the basin
The water was kept at Muratlı Dam on 14/03/2005 and the first energy production was realized
on 28/03/2005. A total of 426,1 ha area was flooded with Muratlı Dam as a result of the overlaps
of the maps. When the characteristics of the land are examined, it is seen that the greatest change
is in agricultural areas other than water-qualified areas. The reason why the water expressed part is
the highest value is that the river bed covers a large area (Table 4). Borcka Dam completed the
water catch in 2006. According to the obtained values, a total area of 1029 ha was flooded. When
the maps are examined, it is seen that the highest value of underwater areas is forest land with
43%, and the lowest value is agriculture land with 16%. Deriner Dam, which has the highest dam
of Turkey, opened in 2012. Approximately 2671 hectares of land have been flooded. When the
maps are examined, it is seen that the largest area of underwater areas is forest area with 73% and
the smallest area is water area with 8%. The construction of Artvin Dam and HEPP Project started
in 2011 and started to hold water in 2015. A total of 410 hectares has been flooded. These areas
are forest areas with 83% and residential areas with 1% according to stand map. Yusufeli Dam and
HEPP, which will be the largest dam on the Coruh Basin and started construction in 2013, will
flood an area of approximately 3219 hectares when it completed. When examined according to the
stand map, it is seen that the largest area of underwater areas is in forestland with 62% and the
smallest area is settlement area with 0.8% (Yıldırımer 2013). CLC MAP is a kind of land cover
map (CORINE) developed by the Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs.
129
Egemen Aras
Fig. 4 The average annual precipitation and arithmetic mean precipitation change of the Coruh basin
(Kayhan and Alan 2012)
Fig. 5 Automatic meteorological observation station (AMOS) in Coruh Basin
3.3 Climatic effects in the study area
Depending on the varying rain rates, it is not clear exactly how the amount of superficial water
flow will change, but records from past years show that every 1 °C rise in temperature will cause a
4% increase in global surface water flow. If this projection is applied to precipitation and
evaporation, it is predicted that the global surface water flow will increase by 7.3% by the end of
this century (Goudie 2006). That is, if a region receives more precipitation and more surface water
flows, the probability of flooding this region will increase. Due to climate change, rising seawater
levels lead to erosion, flooding and salt-fresh water mixing. Turkey is not a sensitive area in this
regard, but for the Mediterranean and the Black Sea in the past century, the increase in sea level
has reached 12 cm. The losses due to coastal erosion on the Turkish coast are manifested as a 6%
loss in GNP (Demirkesen et al. 2008).
130
Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change...
When the data are analyzed for five meteorological stations in the Ç oruh basin, it is seen that
the arithmetic mean of rainfall amounts is 495,1 mm/m2 and the areal mean value is 695,9 mm/m2.
As can be seen from the graph showing the distribution of annual average data, there is a serious
difference of 200.7 mm/ m2 on average between the area mean annual precipitation and the
arithmetic average in the basin (Fig. 4) The meaning of such a large difference between the two
means is the discrepancy between the station distribution and the precipitation regime. Moreover,
Fig. 6 Average monthly and total rainfall amount at Hopa Station
Fig. 7 Average monthly and total rainfall amount at Artvin Station
Fig. 8 Average monthly and total rainfall amount at Ispir Station
Fig. 9 Average monthly and total rainfall amount at Oltu Station
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Fig. 10 Average monthly and total rainfall amount at Tortum Station
there is a very serious increase in the annual average rainfall amount of the basin compared to the
annual average rainfall amount in Turkey (Kayhan and Alan 2012).
The water flow of the Coruh River varies according to the season. Because of the precipitation
of snow, there is heavy flow between March and June. In summer, the flow is low due to
precipitation. 85% of the total annual flow is the current from March to July. The Coruh River is
the fastest flowing river of the country and its summit peak in May (1.529-1.569 m3/s. The average
discharge before leaving Turkeys borders is 192 m3/s. The annual average flow volume is 6.3
billion m3 and the total height to be energy produced is 1420 m.
In the last 10 years, 5 Automatic Meteorological Observation Station (AMOS) have been
established in Artvin (Artvin Center, Hopa, Ardanuç, Savsat and Yusufeli). 13 AMOS was
established in Erzurum (Central, Hinis, Horasan, İspir, Oltu, Tortum, Palandöken, Uzundere,
Aşkale, Çat, Karayazı, Narman and Pasinler Soil Water Research). In Bayburt, 2 AMOS (Central
and Demirözü) was established (Fig. 5). In the forthcoming period, 3 units in Artvin, 7 units in
Erzurum and 1 unit in Bayburt are planned to be established.
The most regular and long-term measurement stations among the current monitoring stations
were examined in order to examine the effects of completed dams on rainfall in the basin. It has
been noted that the selected stations are located upstream and downstream of the zone. Artvin
AMOS located in the middle point of the dams completed on the project and Hopa AMOS located
in the downstream of all of them are examined. In addition, the values of Ispir, Tortum and Oltu
AMOSs which are downstream of the all dams having been examined (Figs. 6-10). The data from
1960 to 2014 were assessed at the observation stations.
When the total and monthly mean rainfall amounts of the 5 large stations in our study area are
examined, small changes are observed in the amount of precipitation since the dam reservoirs
begin to fill up. When the graphs are examined, it is seen that the average rainfall has increased in
the last 10 years although there is not a significant increase in the total amount of rainfall. Since
2005, the first dam started to fill, it is seen that rainfall amounts do not have very extreme values
and there is a certain range of rainfall. Especially, it is clearly visible at the Artvin station, which is
at the center of the dams and most affected by the dam lakes. The same situation also appears in
the graphics of other stations. It is clearly seen that the lowest rainfall values have increased
considerably when the values before and after 2005 are evaluated.
3.4 Ecological effects
Coruh Valley is located in the Caucasus Hotspot where the richest region of the world in terms
of biodiversity and one of the 34 most important Terrestrial Ecological Zones in danger. WWF
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Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change...
Fig. 11 Endemic species transport area and dam reservoir area
Fig. 12 Examples of plant species displaced within the scope of the project (Artvin Kampüs 2013)
(World Wildlife Conservation Foundation) has declared the temperate zone forests of the Coruh
valley as one of the top 200 Ecoregions in Protection on Earth. The Deriner Dam area is located in
the Çoruh Valley important plant area as well as in the North East Anatolian Plant Diversity
Center (SWA.19 North East Anatolia). With the completion of the Deriner Dam, a dam lake of
26.5 hectares will be formed. A project has been developed and implemented by the Ministry of
Forestry and Water Affairs to transport some endemic and rare plant species that will be inundated
to suitable areas (Fig. 11).
It has been detected that 1 endemic cataract is spread in the world and in Turkey, 1 non-
endemic cataract is spread in Artvin and only under Deriner Dam at the end of the project. In
addition, it has been determined that a total of 16 plant species are at risk, 14 of which are endemic
and 2 are non-endemic (Fig. 12). According to the data obtained from the area, the total number of
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Fig. 13 Camili biosphere area
movable individuals for 18 plant species is about 200. In addition, new species, not identified in
the project, have been identified and its samples have been collected. As a second step of the
project, studies on the production of target species started on 25.06.2012. 18 plant species were
removed and planted in 252 pots. These plants were left to grow in Artvin Coruh University
(Eminağaoğlu 2011).
Plants that are dismantled and produced in sufficient quantity in the sera will be transported to
the determined area between 200-650 m elevations as the most suitable place in terms of features
such as altitude, soil, ecological structure in the village of Artvin, Salkımlı. This transport area is a
place where you can see the dam body. This area can be considered as an observation point for
observing crops for viewing. Especially viewpoints can be created for these species to be watched
by the wanderer. At the same time, it is thought that many points of view can be created within the
study area where many wild animals can be traced. Birdwatching activity may also be performed
within the study area.
The species found in the Coruh Basin, which has an extraordinary and rich flora, are bay,
thyme, linden, rosehip, cherry and forest rose flowers. A total of 1,864 plant species and 119
endemic species were identified in the basin. Considering that the Turkish flora contains more than
11,000 species, it can be said that about 17% of it is here. The Kaçkar Mountains National Park is
home to a rich flora. There are endemic species in both the lower and upper flores. This is the only
place in Turkey where the rhododendrons reach 3,000 m. Wild animals such as wild goat, wolf,
gray bear, pig, fox, deer, marten, jackal, birds pheasant, hawk, falcon, mountain rooster live in
Kaçkar Mountains which are rich in fauna. The Kaçkar Mountains are one of the rare places where
the glaciations of the Pleistocene are visible together with the current glaciation. There are many
glaciers, glacier lakes, glacier valleys, circuses and moraines in the region (Surat et al. 2015).
The first and only biosphere area of Turkey is Camili located in Ç oruh Basin (Fig. 13). The
Camili Basin was declared a biosphere reserve by the United Nations Secretariat of the UNESCO
MAB (Man and Biosphere) Program on 29 June 2005. The Camili Biosphere Reserve Area,
attracting attention with its rich water resources, is 25,258 hectares in size. In the basin, which has
a rugged terrain structure, 1021 species of plants are spreading. Camili is defined as one of 25
continental Ecoregions in the World, defined by the International Environmental Protection
Agency (CI), the World Bank (WB) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). It is also
monitored by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in the framework of the High Value Protected
Areas Project. Camili is the largest natural aged forest ecosystem in Europe and Central Asia.
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Effects of multiple dam projects on river ecology and climate change...
Camili Basin is part of the Important Plant Area of the Karçal Mountains which is one of
Turkey's 122 Important Plant Areas. In addition, Camili is the only place in which the Caucasian
Bee breed remains without compromising its purity. For this reason, it has been taken under the
scope of Gene Protection Site. The Karcal Mountains are one of the important habitats of birch
chickens and hooked horned mountain goats. The black bear, which is under international
protection, is among the fauna riches of the area.
Due to severe erosion in the basin, there is a risk that the completed, under-construction and
planned dam reservoirs will fill up in short time and their economic life will decrease. Therefore,
there is a need to conduct river basin rehabilitation work in the region. Coruh River Basin
Rehabilitation Project has been prepared with the aim of managing natural resources, preventing
erosion and increasing income levels of the people. The project will be implemented between 2012
and 2019 and includes Artvin, Bayburt and Erzurum. The budget of the project that 38,000 people
in 156 villages will benefit is 145 million TL. Activities such as flood control, rehabilitation of
forests, avalanche control, soil conservation, providing agricultural production support,
improvement of living conditions of villagers, rehabilitation of rangeland rehabilitation and
degraded forests, development of irrigation infrastructure, bee hive, fruit garden and greenhouse
facilities will be carried out within the scope of the project. The Çoruh River Basin Rehabilitation
Project, which is also aimed at promoting and supporting solar energy systems, has also added
functional planning of forest areas, development of national parks and hunting-wildlife, planning
and development of ecotourism.
4. Conclusions
The water masses in the dam lakes cause cooler summers and milder winters around the dam
due to their thermal properties. At the same time, it causes a significant difference in the direction
of dominant wind in the region and a significant increase in wind intensity. Because of the
different water vapour pressures of water and air, large amounts of moisture transfer from the lake
surface to the land. With the increase in air humidity, there are large increases in fog, frost, snow
and rain in the region.
In Turkey, climate-related risks and impacts in the water sector are drought, flood, salinization,
and precipitation distribution. Changes in water resources also affect many sectors such as
agriculture, health, energy and infrastructure. Coruh Basin Conservation Action Plan has been
prepared with the aim of taking a holistic view of all the resources in the Coruh Basin. The Action
Plan was completed at the end of 2013. With the Action Plan, the general situation of the Coruh
Basin, the hot spots in the basin, the water quality status and the factors affecting this situation
have been determined and short, medium and long term measures have been presented to improve
the existing situation.
It has been determined that there will be significant changes in the existing land use in the lake
areas that will be built in Ç oruh Basin due to the dams being constructed and to be constructed. A
total of 8137 ha will be flooded if the reservoir areas of the dams are filled with water. The
greatest proportion of these areas is found in forests, and the smallest proportion is in residential
areas.
When the meteorological stations considered to be under the influence of the dam reservoirs
and the lakes of the completed 4 large dams are examined, the average amount of rainfall shows a
slight increase. It is also seen that the precipitation is more regular. If too many dams are
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Egemen Aras
considered to be built in the Basin, the actual impact will be more accurate after all dams have
been completed. The consequence of climate change will be a lethal flood and soil erosion source
for countries that will not be able to provide adequate infrastructure, while precipitation increases
will not be a problem for countries with water storage, routing and distribution technology.
Turkey has developed a national action plan on climate change, along with the need to develop
it. Climate change is monitored by a specialized ministry in many countries. Different aspects of
climate change in Turkey are handled independently by various ministries and institutions and this
leads to coordination problems. Therefore, it is necessary to keep the institutional and legal
structure in mind. In principle, authorities should be fully identified among institutions playing a
role in climate change and water management, and these powers should be complementary to each
other, not contradictory or overlapping.
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... A reservoir model was established applying following reservoir equation: (1) with reservoir volume VR (t) at the time t; QIN (t) inflow, QIRR (t) irrigation flow; QMPH (t) flow though the main powerhouse; QEPH (t) flow through the environmental powerhouse; E (t) evaporation losses; QSP (t) flow spilled via spillway. ...
... Particular aspects of climate change effects were not considered at that time. Updated scientific studies predict an increase of the surface runoff in the Çoruh river catchment which could have positive effects on the energy generation [1]. The model should also help to clarify some questions regarding the operation strategy with the aim of the optimum use of the available, predicted water resources in order to gain utmost energy generation. ...
... Especially, spillway losses are reduced by almost 10 % when again comparing scheme No. 3 to No. 6. Evaporation losses vary from 2.0 to 5.2 %. In this context the expected higher flows are mentioned which are predicted as an effect of the climate change [1]. The model did not consider any maintenance or rehabilitation periods or other energy production stops caused by malfunction, regional power breakdowns, etc. so that the values should be considered as upper borders. ...
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... It is worth explaining that as agriculture is the major consumer of water in the basin, with irrigation efficiency being ~43% in Iran and ~35-40% in both Azerbaijan and Armenia, it has been affected by flow reduction (UNDP/GEF, 2006b; Kura Aras Stakeholder Advisory Group, 2007). Due to the consequences of human intervention in the riverine border, such as changes in water demand (Pilpayeh et al., 2010), ecosystem degradation (Demir et al., 2014;Aras, 2018), changes in the water quality (UNDP/GEF, 2006a; Nasehi et al., 2013;Demir et al., 2014), changes in channel dynamism and bank erosion (Klaphake et al., 2011), major conflicts and transboundary consequences between countries could appear. Displacement of the River Aras has formed the boundary on both sides of the study area and has had political as well as economic consequences (Anderson, 2014;Sarmadi et al., 2018). ...
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International rivers are one of the most politicized natural resources. Their dynamism, whether driven by the influence of natural processes or artificial drivers, can generate political issues between countries where de river is the common boundary. The present study has tried to discern the role of international riverine borders as a limiting factor of their dynamics from a geomorphological point of view. In this context, the main objective of this research is to assess how land cover in the floodplain has been affected by river dynamics along a border by analysing a 160-km-long reach of the Aras River, which is the natural frontier between Iran, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, over the last 35 years (i.e., 1984-2019). Landsat images from 1984 to 2019 have been used to assess land cover changes in a floodplain buffer using Support Vector Machine algorithms and geomorphological changes through indexes such as the River Network Change Index, Channel Mobility Index, Sinuosity index, and Bank retreat index. The results show that active channel has mainly experienced a narrowing process during the study period, with a narrowing rate of 2.05 m/year. In addition, the average value of the River Network Channel Index (− 2.45 m/year) reveals that lateral deposition and narrowing were the main processes occurring within the study reach. Channel displacement toward the non-Iranian part was more prominent, being around 27 m on average along the whole study reach which may cause new problems and conflicts that conditions the border situation. In the whole study period, the succession category showed a higher rate of increase in comparison with rejuvenation. Stabilization of surfaces prevailed, with most of the area maintaining the same type during the study period. Regarding land cover types, artificialization appears to be the most prominent transition that express the Aras River, and specifically the floodplain buffer zone, has been strongly affected by human pressure, with farmland activities, urbanization, and damming being the most important types. The key to this habitat degradation comes from the management with irrigation purposes of large reservoirs that directly or indirectly would cause most of the changes detected.
... It has a storage volume of 1.97 billion m 3 and is considered the second largest reservoir in the Çoruh basin. The Yusufeli dam, presently under construction, has the highest storage capacity among the dams operating on the Çoruh River, and is expected to generate 1.888 GWh/year of electricity [30]. For the reasons mentioned above, the Çoruh basin was selected as a study area for researchers interested in topics such as flow, rainfall, drought and flood analyses (i.e., [28,[31][32][33][34]). ...
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Bivariate modeling and hazard assessment of low flows are performed exploiting copulas. 7-day low flows observed, respectively, in the upper, middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin (Turkey) are examined, considering three pairs of certified stations located in different sub-basins. A thorough statistical analysis indicates that the GEV distribution can be used to model the marginal behavior of the low-flow. The joint distributions at each part are modeled via a dozen of copula families. As a result, the Husler–Reiss copula adequately fits the joint low flows in the upper part, while the t-Student copula turns out to best fit the other parts. In order to assess the low-flow hazard, these copulas are then used to compute joint return periods and failure probabilities under a critical bivariate “AND” hazard scenario. The results indicate that the middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin are likely to experience the largest drought hazards. As a novelty, the statistical tools used allow to objectively quantify drought threatening in a thorough multivariate perspective, which involves distributional analysis, frequency analysis (return periods) and hazard analysis (failure probabilities).
... For Turkey, the majority of drought assessment studies have been performed based on the history of the drought to monitor the climate change quantity, rather than the effects of climate change on the properties of drought events in the future (Keskin et al. 2011;Katipoğlu and Can 2018;Tosunoglu and Kisi 2017;Tosunoğlu and Onof 2017;Güner Bacanli 2017;Kutiel and Türkeş 2017;Raja et al. 2017;Aras 2018). Güner Bacanli (2017) investigated the trend in precipitation and drought indices in the Aegean region (Turkey) during the period between 1960 and 2013. ...
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During the coming years, a dramatic increase is expected in the number of drought events mainly due to climate change. In this study, the spatio-temporal variations of duration and intensity of drought events during two 30-year periods in the future (2040–2069 and 2070–2099) together with the reference period (1971–2000) were investigated based on the impacts of climate change. Three drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index, the China Z Index, and the Statistical Z Score were calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data from the outputs of GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR general circulation models (GCMs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the Western Black Sea (WBS) and the Euphrates–Tigris (ET) basins in Turkey. The biases in the GCMs' precipitation were corrected using the linear scaling method. Additionally, the Mann–Kendall trend test was adapted to the values of drought indices to detect the trend. The results of the study showed that there is no meaningful variation between the different drought indices and also the outputs of various GCMs in terms of drought properties. On the other hand, based on the drought indices values calculated from the outputs of all GCMs, it was found that drought duration and intensity will increase during the current century. Additionally, it was concluded that by taking the spatial distribution of drought properties over the basins into the account, there is a slight relationship between the geographical elevation and drought properties over the WBS and the ET basins.
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New global challenges such as strong willingness to development and climate change highlighted water, politics, and security nexus so that water resources have become a soft tool for achieving political goals and influences. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to the dynamic and complex interactions between water and politics throughout the world, especially in Western Asia as a highly stressed region. Among the West Asian countries, Turkey is one of the countries that has been using a considerable part of its water resources to build economic power, advance political strategies, and achieve water hegemony in recent decades. This paper describes Turkey’s hydraulic mission in three categories: domestic hydraulic mission projects and nationalize its waters, water transfer projects from Turkey to its neighbors and gets the opportunities from its waters, last but not the least, transboundary water projects and legitimize its hydropolitical actions. In addition, it will be shown how Turkey's government follows up the absolute territorial integrity in their discourses, but in practice, they apply Strategic Depth Doctrine and adopted Hydraulic Mission. Therefore, Turkey tries to dominate its neighboring and some non-neighboring countries by Turkey’s water and its hydropolitics actions. Because the volume of water that will be transported can only compensate for a very small fraction of the water scarcity. While they can cause serious economic, security, and environmental challenges. Water dependency as the most indispensable resource for human life will be one of Turkey's strategies and tools for gaining power in the highly critical Western Asian region.
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Large-scale hydraulic projects and water infrastructures have direct impacts on the social and ecological landscape in which they are located and vice versa. In accordance to the sustainable development concept, multipurpose hydroelectric plants apart from power generation and thus profitability, should cover socioeconomic and environmental services. In the proposed method-ology, the aforementioned services are attributed in monetary terms in order to trigger a custom economic tool that is based on the Net Present Value rule so as to assess the economic viability of a new hydropower plant. Moreover, the impact of climate change on the natural resources feeding the plant is considered as an externality that should be evaluated and introduced in the feasibility study of a new renewable energy project. The results from the coupling of mathematical models such as hydrological, hydropower plants' operation, climate change and capital investment models, revealed that the projected meso and macro timescale decrease of water discharges will have direct negative effect on the investment profitability and thus the planned payback period. Moreover, the coupling of climate change with electricity wholesale prices fluctuations could completely jeopardize the project and consequently have a deterrent effect rather than attracting investors.
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The hydrological discharge (HD) model of Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is forced by a variety of climate model datasets to investigate the future of discharge in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. The data include daily time series of surface runoff and sub-surface runoff outputs of 2 global climate models (GCMs) (the SRES A1B scenario simulation of ECHAM5/MPIOM and the RCP 4.5 scenario simulation of MPI-ESM-LR) and the dynamically downscaled outputs of ECHAM5/MPIOM and NCAR-CCSM3 scenario (SRES A1FI, A2 and B1) simulations. The suite of simulations enables a comprehensive analysis of the projected river discharge, and allows a comparison between CMIP5 simulations of MPI-ESM-LR and CMIP3 results from its predecessor ECHAM5/MPIOM on a basin scale. We demonstrate that HD simulations forced with relatively low-resolution GCM outputs are not good at reproducing the seasonal cycle of discharge, which is typically characterized by less flow in the peak season and an earlier peak in annual discharge. Simulations forced with the MPI-ESM-LR yield more robust information on the annual cycle and timing of the annual peak discharge than ECHAM5-forced simulations. In contrast to GCM-forced simulations, high-resolution RCM-forced simulations reproduce the annual cycle of discharge reasonably well; however, overestimation of discharge during the cold season and bias in the timing of springtime snowmelt peaks persist in the RCM-forced simulations. Different RCM-forced scenario simulations indicate substantial decreases in mean annual discharge for the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers by the end of the century, ranging from 19-58%. Significant temporal shifts to earlier days (3-5 wk by the end of the 21st century) in the center time of the discharges are also projected for these rivers. As the basin is considered water-stressed and the region is strongly influenced by water-scarcity events, these unfavorable changes may potentially increase water disputes among the basin countries.
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Although the geopolitical position of Turkey has a great importance, Turkey is not able to benefit from its natural resources adequately and so the foreign dependency of energy is rising explosively. For this reason, an attempt is being made to increase energy production by constructing small scale hydroelectric power plants in Turkey. The Eastern Black Sea Basin is an important basin located in the northeast part of Turkey, with a high surface water potential. The unused water potential of this region, where there is a great amount of precipitation, was brought into use with the enactment of a law 2001. Under this law, the construction of numerous small scale plants was begun. In this study, the status of small scale plants, of which construction has started or is already completed as well as those in the project phase, were examined on a province by province basis for 2011, and the economical contribution of these plants to regional and national economy and the ecological effects were analyzed.
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A basin-wide flood frequency analysis using Index flood and L-moments approach offers an attractive solution to provide flood quantile estimations at hundreds of ungauged sites within the Red River Basin of the North. L-moments diagrams and hierarchical clustering techniques were used initially to delineate hydrologic regions within the basin. Although the northern plain is relatively flat and almost monotonous, the analyses have shown that four homogeneous regions could be established for the basin. The whole basin as a region is also established for the purpose of flood estimations along the main stem. Appropriate probability distributions are fitted to the pooled regional flood peaks in each region. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to decide the best distribution for each region, and the dominant distributions found are the Log-Pearson Type III and the generalized Pareto distributions. The regression of index flood with the physical factors of drainage area and basin slopes for two of the five regions are not very satisfactory. However, the flood quantile estimates are sufficient for preliminary planning purposes.
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