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Resilience of tropical forest and savanna: bridging theory and observation
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... Because 'forest' can be understood in physiognomic terms as any vegetation dominated by trees, the conflict between the use of the concepts forest and savanna can hardly be avoided (e.g. Ratnam et al. 2011;Torello-Raventos et al. 2013;Staal 2018). ...
The forests of South Africa and the neighbouring countries, including Lesotho, eSwatini, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique (south of the Zambezi River), were mapped and classified according to the global system of biomes. The new four-tier hierarchical biome system suggested in this paper includes zonobiome, global biome, continental biome (all recognised earlier), and regional biome – a novel biome category. The existing spatial coverages of the forests were revised and considerably improved, both in terms of forest-patch coverage and mapping precision. Southern Africa is home to three zonal forest types, namely Subtropical Forests (Zonobiome I), Tropical Dry Forest (TDF; Zonobiome II) and Afrotemperate Forests (Zonobiome X). These three biomes are characterised by unique bioclimatic envelopes. Five, two, and eight regional biomes, respectively, have been recognised within these zonal biomes. Recognition of the Zonobiome I and the global biome Tropical Dry Forests in southern Africa is novel and expands our knowledge of the biome structure of African biotic communities. The system of the azonal regional biomes is also new and comprehensively covers the variability of the azonal helobiomes (riparian woodlands and swamp forests), mangroves, and azonal coastal forests. In total, 11 azonal regional biomes have been recognised in the study area. The forest biomes in southern Africa were captured in our electronic map in the form of more than 60 000 polygons, covering 42 416 km² (1.27% of the study area). No less than 83% of these forests occur in the territory of southern Mozambique.
Abbreviations: for the abbreviation of the biome units, see Table 1; CE: centre of endemism; IOCB: Indian Ocean Coastal Belt; MBSA: the area of the Map of Biomes of Southern Africa; VegMap2006 and VegMap2018: Vegetation Map of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland (as released in respective years); for the meaning of the codes of the biome units see Table 1, and for the meaning of the abbreviations of climatic characteristics see Appendix S1
Tree transpiration in the Amazon may enhance rainfall for downwind forests. Until now it has been unclear how this cascading effect plays out across the basin. Here, we calculate local forest transpiration and the subsequent trajectories of transpired water through the atmosphere in high spatial and temporal detail. We estimate that one-third of Amazon rainfall originates within its own basin, of which two-thirds has been transpired. Forests in the southern half of the basin contribute most to the stability of other forests in this way, whereas forests in the south-western Amazon are particularly dependent on transpired-water subsidies. These forest-rainfall cascades buffer the effects of drought and reveal a mechanism by which deforestation can compromise the resilience of the Amazon forest system in the face of future climatic extremes.
Tropical carbon emissions are largely derived from direct forest clearing processes. Yet, emissions from drought-induced forest fires are, usually, not included in national-level carbon emission inventories. Here we examine Brazilian Amazon drought impacts on fire incidence and associated forest fire carbon emissions over the period 2003–2015. We show that despite a 76% decline in deforestation rates over the past 13 years, fire incidence increased by 36% during the 2015 drought compared to the preceding 12 years. The 2015 drought had the largest ever ratio of active fire counts to deforestation, with active fires occurring over an area of 799,293 km2. Gross emissions from forest fires (989 ± 504 Tg CO2 year−1) alone are more than half as great as those from old-growth forest deforestation during drought years. We conclude that carbon emission inventories intended for accounting and developing policies need to take account of substantial forest fire emissions not associated to the deforestation process.
Recent studies have interpreted patterns of remotely sensed tree cover as evidence that forest with intermediate tree cover might be unstable in the tropics, as it will tip into either a closed forest or a more open savanna state. Here we show that across all continents the frequency of wildfires rises sharply as tree cover falls below ~40%. Using a simple empirical model, we hypothesize that the steepness of this pattern causes intermediate tree cover (30‒60%) to be unstable for a broad range of assumptions on tree growth and fire-driven mortality. We show that across all continents, observed frequency distributions of tropical tree cover are consistent with this hypothesis. We argue that percolation of fire through an open landscape may explain the remarkably universal rise of fire frequency around a critical tree cover, but we show that simple percolation models cannot predict the actual threshold quantitatively. The fire-driven instability of intermediate states implies that tree cover will not change smoothly with climate or other stressors and shifts between closed forest and a state of low tree cover will likely tend to be relatively sharp and difficult to reverse.
Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.). When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.
The idea that the tropics may have alternative vegetation states of forest, savanna and treeless has gained growing support from both theoretical and empirical studies over the past years (Hirota et al. 2011, Staver et al. 2011, Van Nes et al. 2014, Wuyts et al. 2017). In our previous work, we combined multi-sourced remote sensing data to demonstrate correspondence between multimodal distributions of tree cover and canopy height, and further suggested that at a global scale, tropical forest, savanna and treeless landscapes represent distinct vegetation states separated by tipping points at 600, 1500 and 2000 mm mean annual precipitation (Xu et al. 2016). In their comment, Synodinos et al. (2017) acknowledge the value of incorporating canopy height as an additional defining ecosystem variable that is complementary to tree cover, but question our observed pattern of the treeless-savanna transition. Synodinos et al. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Wildfires burn large parts of the tropics every year, shaping ecosystem structure and functioning. Yet the complex interplay between climate, vegetation and human factors that drives fire dynamics is still poorly understood. Here we show that on all continents, except Australia, tropical fire regimes change drastically as mean annual precipitation falls below 550 mm. While the frequency of fires decreases below this threshold, the size and intensity of wildfires rise sharply. This transition to a regime of Rare-Intense-Big fires (RIB-fires) corresponds to the relative disappearance of trees from the landscape. Most dry regions on the globe are projected to become substantially drier under global warming. Our findings suggest a global zone where this drying may have important implications for fire risks to society and ecosystem functioning.
The concept of the Earth’s atmosphere, biosphere, oceans, soil, and rocks operating as a closely interacting system has rapidly gained ground in science. Earth System Science: A Very Short Introduction considers how a world in which humans could evolve arose; how, as a species, we are now reshaping that world; and what a sustainable future for humanity within the Earth system might look like. Drawing on elements of geology, biology, chemistry, physics, and mathematics, it asks whether Earth system science can help guide us on to a sustainable course before we alter the Earth system to the point where we destroy ourselves and our current civilization.
Integrating the biosphere into climate models
High-quality climate predictions are crucial for understanding the impacts of different greenhouse gas emission scenarios and for mitigating and adapting to the resulting climatic changes. Bonan and Doney review advances in Earth system models that include the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Such models capture interactions between physical and biological aspects of the Earth system. This provides insight into climate impacts of societal importance, such as altered crop yields, wildfire risk, and water availability. Further research is needed to better understand model uncertainties, some of which may be unavoidable, and to better translate observations into abstract model representations.
Science , this issue p. eaam8328