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The Influence of Investigative Resources on Homicide Clearances

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Anthony A. Braga
Anthony A. Braga
Anthony A. Braga
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Brandon Turchan at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
Brandon Turchan
Lisa Barao at University of Pennsylvania
Lisa Barao
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Objectives This paper investigates the influence of case characteristics and investigative resources on homicide clearance rates. Methods We extend a previous evaluation of a problem-oriented policing project intended to improve homicide clearance rates in Boston. Data were collected on N = 465 homicide incidents that occurred between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2014. Confirmatory factor analyses are used to identify latent variables representing investigative resources, initial crime scene results, and subsequent investigative actions and forensic testing. The effects of these investigative factors on homicide clearances net other covariates were estimated using mixed effects logistic regression models. Mediation analysis was then used to decompose the total, direct, and indirect effect of investigative resources on homicide clearances. Exploratory group comparisons were examined to distinguish investigative differences in gang and drug homicides relative to non-gang and non-drug homicides. Results Investigative resources, crime scene results, and subsequent investigative actions and forensic testing were found to increase the likelihood of homicide case clearance controlling for other covariates. Investigative resources were found to produce both direct and indirect impacts on homicide clearances mediated through its positive influence on initial crime scene results and subsequent investigative actions and forensic testing. Clearance through follow-up investigation was more difficult for gang and drug homicide cases when compared to other homicide cases. Conclusion While inherited case characteristics matter, enhanced investigative resources and improved practices increase homicide clearances. Beyond investments to improve investigations, gang and drug homicides remain particularly difficult to clear due to a lack of physical evidence and witness cooperation.
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Vol.:(0123456789)
Journal of Quantitative Criminology (2019) 35:337–364
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-018-9386-9
1 3
ORIGINAL PAPER
The Inuence ofInvestigative Resources onHomicide
Clearances
AnthonyA.Braga1· BrandonTurchan1,2· LisaBarao1
Published online: 21 June 2018
© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2018
Abstract
Objectives This paper investigates the influence of case characteristics and investigative
resources on homicide clearance rates.
Methods We extend a previous evaluation of a problem-oriented policing project intended
to improve homicide clearance rates in Boston. Data were collected on N = 465 homicide
incidents that occurred between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2014. Confirmatory
factor analyses are used to identify latent variables representing investigative resources,
initial crime scene results, and subsequent investigative actions and forensic testing. The
effects of these investigative factors on homicide clearances net other covariates were esti-
mated using mixed effects logistic regression models. Mediation analysis was then used
to decompose the total, direct, and indirect effect of investigative resources on homicide
clearances. Exploratory group comparisons were examined to distinguish investigative dif-
ferences in gang and drug homicides relative to non-gang and non-drug homicides.
Results Investigative resources, crime scene results, and subsequent investigative actions
and forensic testing were found to increase the likelihood of homicide case clearance con-
trolling for other covariates. Investigative resources were found to produce both direct and
indirect impacts on homicide clearances mediated through its positive influence on initial
crime scene results and subsequent investigative actions and forensic testing. Clearance
through follow-up investigation was more difficult for gang and drug homicide cases when
compared to other homicide cases.
Conclusion While inherited case characteristics matter, enhanced investigative resources
and improved practices increase homicide clearances. Beyond investments to improve
investigations, gang and drug homicides remain particularly difficult to clear due to a lack
of physical evidence and witness cooperation.
Keywords Homicide· Clearance· Investigation· Gangs· Forensic
* Anthony A. Braga
a.braga@northeastern.edu
1 School ofCriminology andCriminal Justice, Northeastern University, 360 Huntington Avenue,
Boston, MA02115, USA
2 School ofCriminal Justice, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ, USA
Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved.
... It is widely reported that the age of the victim also affects case outcomes. Often cited in literature is that young victims are subject to increased clearance (Prince et al., 2021), though categorization of ages differs between studies with increased clearance reported for victims under 10 years (Regoeczi et al., 2008) under 12 years (Roberts & Lyons, 2009), and 17 and under (Braga et al., 2019). Child homicides may be more likely to be witnessed than other kinds of homicide because children are seldom alone (Riedel, 2008), or these kinds of homicides may be easier to investigate as there is often an existing relationship between the perpetrator and victim (Regoeczi et al., 2008). ...
... For instance, research from the United States found that police consistently assign 'true victim' status to children and elderly victims in homicide cases (Hawk & Dabney, 2014, p.1135, which leads to increased investigative effort by police and higher likelihood of case clearance (Pastia et al., 2017). However, in contrast to the higher clearance of older victims reported by Braga et al. (2019) studies from the United States (see review by Prince et al., 2021) have reported that homicides involving elderly victims are associated with lower clearance rates. It is unclear why these homicides might be more challenging to investigate, although it is suggested that elderly people experience a disproportionate number of robbery homicides perpetrated by strangers (Bänziger & Killias, 2014;Litwin, 2004;Regoeczi et al., 2000). ...
... Victim-offender relationships may also be influenced by the victim's lifestyle, specifically whether they are involved in gangs and/or drug markets, both of which have been found to reduce the likelihood of homicide case clearance in the United States and Canada (e.g., Braga et al., 2019;Pastia et al., 2017;Roberts, 2007). From a discretionary perspective, lower clearance rates may arise because police exert less effort in cases where the victim has known involvement with gangs or drug markets. ...
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... Despite this long-standing focus on increasing case solvability, crime clearance rates have not risen significantly over time, with homicide clearance rates in particular actually declining between the 1960s and the 1990s and again in the last few years (Brookman et al., 2019;Scott et al., 2019;Wellford & Cronin, 1999). This decline in homicide solvability has been linked to changes in various case factors (e.g., the presence of eyewitnesses, the crime's physical location, type of lethal weapon used) that can mitigate the overall effectiveness of comprehensive investigations (Braga et al., 2019;Jarvis & Regoeczi, 2009;Vaughn, 2020). As a consequence of this declining solvability, increased attention has focused on investigative effort and resources allocated to cases to overcome these situational challenges . ...
... To combat poor practices, previous research indicates that when more investigative resources (e.g., time, money) are spent on a case the initial response to a scene is faster and more efficient, resulting in more evidence, faster processing of evidence, and overall enhanced case clearance (Carter, 2013;Maguire et al., 2010;Wellford & Cronin, 1999). Braga et al. (2019) corroborated these findings with their experiment on agency resources, discovering that dedicating more investigative resources resulted in more interviews, evidence collected, and evidence tested, allowing for further case exploration and thus increasing clearance rates. Another experiment that focused on DNA evidence specifically came to this conclusion as well, finding that because testing DNA is more effective on clearance than fingerprints, more resources should be allocated toward DNA collection (Roman et al., 2009). ...
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... The resources translated into more support by officers and investigators who could assist with time-consuming tasks, such as writing and obtaining permission for search warrants, retrieving, and combing through video, accessing social media sites and interviewing witnesses. Increased investigative resources were also noted as the reason for a significant increase in homicide clearance rates after an evaluation of the Boston (Massachusetts) Police Department's homicide clearance intervention (Braga & Dusseault, 2018;Braga et al., 2019). Prince et al. (2021) review of factors in the area of resources and workload found at least five studies that found support the assertion that smaller caseloads are associated with higher clearance rates, but they also found a few studies with null results (support: Greenwood & Petersilia, 1975;Hawk, 2015;Marché, 1994;Roberts & Roberts, 2016;Wellford & Cronin, 1999;and null findings:;Keel et al., 2009;Paré et al., 2007;Puckett & Lundman, 2003). ...
... Because extant research indicates that overall caseloads can influence clearances, we include, as a proxy measure, a covariate for the overall shooting caseload (as the annual number of shootings in the year of the incident). Last, similar to Braga et al. (2019) and others, we include controls for seasonality and a spatially-lagged measure of shooting incidents to account for the concentration of violence in the area of a given incident (Taylor, 1995) -in that spatially-clustered shootings may facilitate closures through the potential connections across cases due to group conflicts and potentially overlapping environmental characteristics. ...
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... Many factors have been studied in connection to the successful clearance of a homicide, be it a "whodunnit" or a "self-solver" (e.g., Borg and Parker, 2001;Braga et al., 2019;Davies, 2007;Pizarro et al., 2020;Wellford and Cronin, 2000). For example, homicides that involve direct physical contact (e.g., use of hands/fists) or contact weapons (e.g., knives) are more likely to be cleared than homicides involving firearms (Alderden and Lavery, 2007;Litwin, 2004;Regoeczi et al., 2008;Roberts, 2007). ...
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... Research has found investigative techniques such as crime scene analysis and forensic analysis to impact homicide solvability in recent years (Braga et al., 2019a;Wellford, 2018), while other research on forensics is mixed (Regoeczi, 2018;Schroeder and White, 2009). Research on the efficacy of police technology (e.g. ...
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