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Abstract

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo estimar um modelo econométrico para testar se ocorreu um efeito deslocamento (crowding-out) durante o período de 1995-2014. Para tanto, utilizou-seo método de Pesaran e Shin (1999, 2001),o qual se estima um modelo ARDL (Autoregressive with Distributed Lags),seguido de um teste de limites (bounds test). Essa metodologia é adequada para pequenas amostras e é flexível para lidar com variáveis de diferentes ordens de integração. Os resultados indicam uma relação positiva entre consumo do governo e investimento privado. Alguns dos fatores pelos quais este efeito pode ter ocorridosão o controle de gastos e a redução da máquina pública entre 1995-2000, políticas utilizadas para estabilização, que contaram com a expansão do investimento privado na economia brasileira. Em um segundo momento, o aumento do dispêndio governamental iniciado, principalmente no segundo mandato do governo Lula e seguido nos governos seguintes, associado à execução do cronograma de investimentos do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC).
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... Segundo Fernandez et al. (2017), Aschauer (1989) é pioneiro no estudo dos efeitos dos dispêndios governamentais sobre o investimento privado e da ocorrência de crowding-in ou crowding-out. No Brasil, Studart (1992), Jacinto e Ribeiro (1998) e Melo e Júnior (1998) foram os primeiros autores a abordar a temática, embora não tenham dado enfoque ao BNDES. ...
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