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Climate Change and Typhoons in the Philippines: Extreme Weather Events in the Anthropocene
Abstract
The Philippines are one of the world's most typhoon impacted places. There is strong scientific consensus that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change and that this is contributing to stronger typhoons due to higher sea surface temperatures and higher subsurface sea temperatures, which remove the natural buffer on typhoon strength occasioned when cold water up wells from below the ocean's surface. These stronger typhoons carry more moisture, track differently, move faster and will be aggravated by sea level rise, one of the most certain consequences of climate change. The Philippines, with its large and rapidly growing population, are vulnerable to stronger typhoons and this vulnerability is exacerbated by localized environmental degradation. Ultimately, a discussion of climate injustice must be undertaken because, while the Philippines are vulnerable to typhoons augmented by climate change, the Filipino people bear a disproportionately low responsibility for causing climate change.
... The Philippines is not immune to such changes, with climate change predicted to exacerbate the plight of the poor, due to their lower capacity to adapt to potential risks (World Bank, 2018). This is particularly true for poor households in the north of the ix country which derive most of their income from fishing, as the number of fishing days will almost certainly be limited by increased frequency of disturbance events (e.g., typhoons), with flow-on effects to fishers and fish consumption among these communities (Holden & Marshall, 2018). Given the increasing risk posed by climate change, the development of effective fisheries management, particularly for stocks deemed important for consumption, in the country is paramount. ...
... Food insecurity is the state in which people are at risk or actually suffering from inadequate consumption to meet nutritional requirements as a result of the physical unavailability of food, their lack of social or economic access to adequate food, and/or inadequate food utilization (Global Forum on Food Security, FAO). High commodity prices, especially of the food staple rice relative to the rest of the southeast Asian region, further exacerbate this situation (Briones et al., 2017), as do frequent natural disaster events, which have disproportionately perpetuated hunger and malnutrition among poor communities (Holden & Marshall, 2018). In 2021, the World Risk Index ranked the Philippines as the 8 th most atrisk country in terms of potential impacts of climate change (Aleksandrova et al., 2021). ...
... In particular, climate change is predicted to exacerbate the plight of the poor in the Philippines, due to their lower capacity to adapt to potential risks (World Bank, 2018). This is particularly true for poor households in the north of the country which derive most of their income from fishing, as the number of fishing days will almost certainly be limited by increased frequency of disturbance events (e.g., typhoons), with flow-on effects to fishers and fish consumption among these communities (Holden & Marshall, 2018). The increasing severity of storms and typhoons is also likely to result in greater damage to properties, fishing gears, and aquaculture operations, thereby worsening the incidence of poverty among the population, particularly among the already poorest-of-the-poor small-scale fishers. ...
Recognising that seafood is an excellent source of energy, protein, and vital
nutrients for human health, this study was commissioned by Oceana to 1) determine
the role of Philippine fisheries in terms of food security and livelihoods (income and
employment), both at a national and regional scale; 2) assess future risks to food
security and livelihoods in the Philippines; and 3) provide advice to Oceana on policy
options to strengthen the contribution of fish in nutrition systems in the face of
ecosystem change.
... In November 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan ravaged the Eastern Visayas region in Central Philippines. At category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, it is easily one if not the strongest in historical records that ever made landfall (Zhang, 2013;Holden and Marshall, 2018). In the quest for solutions to mitigate future coastal disasters, the protective capacity of mangroves along coastal fringes is being considered (Schmitt et al., 2013;Temmerman et al., 2013). ...
... For further simplicity, the bio-shield simulations did not include sea level rise due to the melting of the polar ice caps. Studies have shown that a reasonable rate of sea level rise in Philippine coasts is about 15 mm/y, which is about nine times the global average (Holden and Marshall, 2018). At this rate, MSL would recede by about 38 cm in 25 years, which the present study considers small enough to assume a quasi-steady coastline over the course of the simulations. ...
Mangrove restoration in the coastal zones is a concept proposed by environmental conservationists. Among the cited advantages of mangrove restoration are providing socio-economic services and coastal protection. Aware of these advantages, countries in Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines, have been implementing government- or civilian-backed restoration efforts. However, will current practices of restoration lead to the intended results? Also, are claims of coastal protection effects realistic? These two questions underscore the challenges posed by the long gap between the present intervention and future impact. Field evidence of protection may emerge from existing sites, the circumstances of which may not be easily portable onto other sites. This study examines the mangrove restoration practices in the Philippines and proposes the restoration index as a short-term prospective estimate of the future success of the restoration effort. This study also assesses the coastal protection potential of mangroves by examining the “bio-shielding” effect against storm surges driven by category-5 winds. Two coastal sites—Tacloban, Leyte, and Pan de Azucar, Iloilo—in the Philippines along the track of a category-5 storm, were considered. The restoration index was calculated based on the characteristics of Rhizophora mangroves commonly used in restoration programs. The coastal inundation model examined the extent of inland flooding due to storm surges by comparing an actual and hypothetical mangrove scenario for each site. A reasonable value of tree density obtained from the restoration simulations was estimated to determine if and to what degree, do mangroves in both sites offer coastal protection. For Tacloban, the actual mangroves are limited in scope, while the hypothetical scenario assumed a mangrove greenbelt fringing the city’s eastern periphery. For Pan de Azucar, the existing mangroves are dense at the southwestern tip of the island, whereas in the hypothetical scenario, these mangroves are absent. The results, reinforced with a household survey, indicated a positive economic value of mangrove restoration for coastal protection. The restoration index and coastal inundation simulations are prospective tools that will guide the Philippines and Southeast Asia, in general, in formulating impactful mangrove restoration programs.
... Most common failures include wall collapse and roof cover loss [45]. The maximum three-second wind gusts experienced during Yolanda were 375 kph [46], which are considerably greater than the design three-second gusts (310 kph for Eastern Samar and 300 kph for Leyte) specified in the National Structural Code of the Philippines [47]. Typhoon Yolanda struck the Central Philippines in November 2013, killing over 6,000 people, affecting over 16 million [43], and damaging or destroying over 1.1 million homes [44]. ...
... Most common failures include wall collapse and roof cover loss [45]. The maximum three-second wind gusts experienced during Yolanda were 375 kph [46], which are considerably greater than the design three-second gusts (310 kph for Eastern Samar and 300 kph for Leyte) specified in the National Structural Code of the Philippines [47]. ...
How residents perceive housing safety affects how structures are designed, built, and maintained. This study assesses the perceptions of housing safety through a survey of over 450 individuals in communities that received post-disaster housing reconstruction assistance following 2013’s Typhoon Yolanda, and that were potentially vulnerable to earthquakes. We analyzed how housing design factors, post-disaster program elements, personal characteristics, and hazard type and exposure influenced safety perceptions. Overall, individuals were most concerned with the safety of their roofs during hazard events and perceived their houses would be less safe in a future typhoon than a future earthquake. Housing material significantly impacted safety perceptions, with individuals in wood houses perceiving their houses to be the least safe. Individuals living in areas more exposed to hazards also perceived their houses to be less safe. Being relocated after the typhoon, witnessing good or bad practices during reconstruction, and prior disaster experience also significantly influenced perceptions of housing safety. These results are used to make recommendations on how implementing organizations can most beneficially intervene with program factors to improve local understanding of housing safety.
... We focused on two off-grid Philippine islands, Busuanga and Culion, in northern Palawan province. These islands were selected due to the Philippines' heightened vulnerability to extreme weather conditions, being located within the typhoon belt of the Pacific Ocean [14]. As an island province in the western Philippines, Palawan has directly experienced the impacts of such weather events, leading to prolonged power outages that have affected residents and the local tourism industry [15,16]. ...
Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) have emerged as a promising solution for delivering sustainable energy to off-grid communities. However, the vulnerability of specific regions to extreme weather events has raised concerns about the resilience of these systems. This study undertakes a techno-economic analysis to assess the impact and significance of incorporating storm hardening measures and insurance into an HRES designed for the Busuanga island cluster. Central to our study is introducing a novel cost metric, the probability-averaged lev-elized cost of electricity (LCOE), which adeptly captures the inherently probabilistic nature of climate-induced damages to HRES energy assets. This metric serves as the linchpin for comparing the economic viability of HRES configurations, considering both scenarios with and without storm hardening or insurance. Our findings unveil a clear trend: for a solar photovoltaic (PV) panel with an annual probability of damage at 1%, insurance emerges as a financially prudent choice, while storm hardening gains merit at a probability of 4%. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is pivotal in shaping investment decisions. HRES setups featuring non-hardened solar PV panels become more economically appealing than their insured or hardened counterparts under higher WACC conditions, under the condition that the solar PV panels can maintain functionality for 15 years without impairment. Our study demonstrates the importance of accounting for often overlooked factors such as storm hardening and insurance premiums for solar PV panels in climate-vulnerable areas, which are commonly disregarded in many techno-economic studies. Moreover, our findings and conclusions on the optimal balance between capital costs, insurance premiums, and storm-hardening markups can readily extend to other climate-vulnerable areas.
... The impact of typhoons results in not only heavy rainfall, leading to massive fluvial sediment accumulation at the estuary, but also the generation of huge waves that rapidly crash on the coastline, potentially causing severe coastal erosion. These effects of typhoons can significantly change the estuary and nearshore morphology (Holden and Marshall, 2018). The above-mentioned studies clearly demonstrated that the effects of both anthropogenic and natural factors play a major role in the research area-the Hsinchu coast-which has both estuaries and structures (Mentaschi et al., 2018;Komar, 1999;Gopinath and Seralathan, 2005;Nishi, 2008;Rosati, 2005, Dean, 1986, Boyd et al., 1992, Harley et al., 2015Nicholls et al., 2007;Dalrymple et al., 2012;Masselink et al., 2016). ...
... In fact, research has shown a strong association between climate change and mortality, size, and biodiversity of the marine ecosystem, which might reduce capture fisheries' productivity (Brander, 2007). Additionally, climate change causes extreme events such as drought, tidal waves, and typhoons (Holden and Marshall, 2018). ...
Climate change adaptation is crucial to sustaining fishers’ livelihood and well-being. However, no studies have investigated the nexus between climate change adaptation and fishers’ subjective well-being. This study aims to fill the gap by investigating the effect of climate change adaptation on fishers’ subjective well-being proxied by happiness and life satisfaction. In this study, climate change adaption refers to fishing-related practices implemented by fishers to address the climate change impact. The aim is to improve fishing productivity, such as by increasing fishing intensity, adjusting fishing times, locations, and gears, and adopting fish-aggregating and fish-finder devices. We used cross-sectional data from 301 smallholder fishers in East Java, Indonesia, and employed a conditional mixed process (CMP) to tackle the endogeneity arising from the selection bias. The empirical results show that adaptation to climate change improves fishers’ happiness and life satisfaction significantly. The heterogeneous analysis indicates that climate change adaptation positively and significantly affects happiness among fishers with low and middle income (income tertiles 1 and 2). The positive and significant impact on life satisfaction only happens at the middle-income level (income tertile 2). Therefore, we suggest promoting climate change adaptation among smallholder fishers to improve their subjective well-being and boost the sector’s economic development.
... An online typhoon mitigation program can provide accessibility, real-time updates, interactive learning, cost-effectiveness, greater reach, flexibility, and data tracking advantages over traditional offline methods (Hechanova et al., 2018;Holden & Marshall, 2018; International Knowledge Centre for Engineering Sciences and Technology, 2019). With an online program, participants can access information and instructions from anywhere with an internet connection, learn at their own pace and schedule, and potentially reach more people (Almazan et al., 2019). ...
Awareness, education, preparedness, predictive, and early warning systems can assist communities in mitigating the disruptive consequences of natural disasters like typhoons. Preparation for and mitigation of typhoons are vital to disaster risk management because they provide accurate and pertinent knowledge, skills, and attitude before, during, and after typhoon processes. This article summarizes an innovative, evidence-based strategy for creating an online typhoon preparedness and mitigation program anchored on Macroergonomics, Typhoon Adaptation, Typhoon Awareness, Risk Perception, and Perceived Preparedness. Moreover, the program was developed from the adapted and contextualized Community Disaster Preparedness Handbook, Weather Underground, the Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon Action, and the Philippines' National Risk Reduction and Management Plan. It examines potential future directions for analyzing, evaluating, and documenting the fitness-for-purpose procedure.
... It belongs to the Pacific Ring of Fire, making it disposed to natural calamities with influence aggravated by climate change [2]. Due to its geographical location, the country is vastly susceptible to a wide array of climate change impacts, including increased frequency and severity of extreme events such as typhoons and storm surges, droughts, sea level rise, elevated temperatures, and intensified rainfall episodes [3], [4]. Weather and climate conditions are well-recognized to set forth a compelling influence on human activities and economic undertakings, including agriculture, fishing, aviation, construction, retail trade and business [5]. ...
... Of these, 104,000 ISFs are situated in environmentally hazardous zones such as dump sites, railways, and along waterways [66]. Flooding is a perennial threat, as an average of 20 typhoons occur in the region each year, which makes these ISFs highly vulnerable to the detrimental effects of flooding [68]. Figure 1 shows the location of Metro Manila and the areas of flood susceptibility. ...
Resilience measurement is an emerging topic in the field of disaster risk reduction. However , its application in Global South cities has proven to be a challenge due to the uniqueness of southern urbanisms and data challenges. As a result, the Resilience Benchmarking Assessment and Impact Toolkit (RABIT) framework has recently been developed to support resilience assessment in informal, marginalized, and disaster-prone contexts of southern cities. This paper asserts the relevance of the RABIT framework and uses it to assess the resilience of Manggahan residences, a reset-tled marginalized community in Pasig City, Metro Manila. Drawing on a quantitative approach and using exploratory factor analysis (EFA), the study revealed that scale, robustness, and learning attributes of the RABIT framework are strong contributors to the community's resilience. Self-organization , diversity, and redundancy have similar levels of contribution. Equality and rapidity were found to have the weakest relative contribution. The study findings emphasize the need to view resilience in resettled communities holistically and adopt an integrated and comprehensive approach that considers the multiple aspects of everyday life to proactively build adaptive and future resilient capacities.
... Studies have shown that climate change is forcing typhoons to change. These typhoons are to become more powerful over the years due to higher sea surface temperatures [6]. ...
In meteorology, neural networks have the potential to be useful for advancing forecasting and prediction capabilities, especially since some were designed to be useful for time series data like weather data. This study investigated the performance of the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). Both CNN and RNN are ideal for time series classification problems. The models were designed to look back at 5 days of weather data to predict the presence or category of a typhoon (No Typhoon, Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm, Severe Tropical Storm, Typhoon, and Super Typhoon). The models were fed with weather data (obtained from NASA and PAGASA) from four locations in the Philippines with the parameters: atmospheric pressure, humidity, precipitation, temperature and wind speed. The research investigated the Accuracy, Cross Entropy Error, Precision, Recall, and F1-Measure, validated using 12-fold Rolling Basis Cross Validation. The results reveal that the CNN and RNN model performed to varying extents. The CNN model scored better at average accuracy however, the RNN model performed better at average cross entropy error, precision, recall, and F1 measure. The RNN model achieved better scores for precision on most categories while the CNN model performed better at recall and F1 measure on other categories. Both performed better at precision, recall and F1 measure on No Typhoon compared to other categories. This is likely due to the historical data being mostly composed of days with no typhoons.
... The country faces at least 20 strong tropical cyclones every year, killing hundreds of people, damaging thousands of properties and ruining livelihoods (Lasco et al., 2009). Due to climate change, the intensity of these typhoons surges to devastating degrees (Emanuel, 2013;Holden & Marshall, 2018;Knutson et al., 2010;Yumul et al., 2011). For example, in 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the most powerful super typhoon ever recorded to make landfall, hit the Philippines. ...
... Generally, typhoons in the western Pacific are formed about east of the Philippines, ranging from 130°to 180°East and 5°to 15°North (Mei et al. 2015). In the recent years, these typhoons have been recorded to be stronger and wetter, with more southerly trajectory than normal (Holden and Marshall 2018). As such, SIPLAS' location in southern Philippines, directly exposed to the Pacific, makes it very vulnerable to climate change. ...
This book focuses on tropical coasts, which are highly vulnerable due to a multitude of stressors. Population growth is substantial, habitats are lost and biodiversity is reduced at an alarming rate, severely affecting many ecosystem services. This situation calls for sound coastal management and the effective engagement of all relevant stakeholders.
About two decades ago the M.Sc. program ISATEC (International Studies in Aquatic Tropical Ecology) was created at Bremen University (Germany) to train young scientists for a professional engagement in the complex field of tropical coastal and resource management. This book provides a platform for those Alumni to report on their work experiences and findings in their home countries and covers all regions of the tropical belt. Part I of the book provides a short review of the state of the tropical ocean and its resources and of international attempts towards sustainable ocean management starting with the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development in 1992. Part II deals with country case studies, and part III focuses on an evaluation & synopsis of those contributions. Emerging key issues for management and conservation of the tropical coastal environments are presented and critical challenges on the path towards reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are discussed, as are the needs for enhancing research and capacity development.
... Generally, typhoons in the western Pacific are formed about east of the Philippines, ranging from 130°to 180°East and 5°to 15°North (Mei et al. 2015). In the recent years, these typhoons have been recorded to be stronger and wetter, with more southerly trajectory than normal (Holden and Marshall 2018). As such, SIPLAS' location in southern Philippines, directly exposed to the Pacific, makes it very vulnerable to climate change. ...
Philippines is famous for its rich natural marine resources and was among the first countries in the region to create marine protected areas (MPAs) that addressed the need to conserve and protect these resources. The National Integrated Protected Areas System (NIPAS) Act implemented in 1992, along with its updated 2018 version—Enhanced NIPAS Act-, provide a comprehensive framework that brings together essential agencies under the government sector, local communities and other stakeholders to the table to discuss how to manage the coastal environment which local populations are highly dependent on. This chapter introduces three NIPAS sites, namely Siargao Integrated Protected Landscape and Seascape, Sagay Marine Reserve, Masinloc Oyon Bay Marine Reserve and the status of marine resources vis-à-vis the site-specific management practices developed by local stewards responsible for the sustainable use of these coastal resources.KeywordsMarine protected areasCoastal managementManagement strategies
... Generally, typhoons in the western Pacific are formed about east of the Philippines, ranging from 130°to 180°East and 5°to 15°North (Mei et al. 2015). In the recent years, these typhoons have been recorded to be stronger and wetter, with more southerly trajectory than normal (Holden and Marshall 2018). As such, SIPLAS' location in southern Philippines, directly exposed to the Pacific, makes it very vulnerable to climate change. ...
Many Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) are characterised by unique marine ecosystems which attract millions of international visitors every year, creating a profitable business for tourist operators. On the downside, the rising tourist numbers are associated with changes in these ecosystems. We performed a literature search and reviewed 43 studies with a geographic scope covering the central Pacific, of which 16 focused on direct impacts of tourism on the marine environment. All but one study found negative or neutral effects of tourism on the marine environment. Only five studies present results from 2014 until present, which is insufficient, given the rapid increase in tourism numbers. Moreover, the majority of the studies focused on popular tourism destinations, indicating a spatial bias of the current knowledge about tourism impacts in the Pacific. In addition to the review, we highlight direct and indirect effects of tourism on marine ecosystems in the area by discussing two case studies. One case study relates to the feeding of reef fish in the Cook Islands by tourists, and the other to the introduction of invasive species in Galapagos. In both cases, species compositions at tourist sites differed from non-visited sites. Based on our review and discussion, we conclude that tourism can be responsible, and tourists may be willing to engage in conservation. We formulate four recommendations that suggest increased: (1) monitoring of the marine environment, (2) citizen science projects to include stakeholder observations for monitoring environmental change, (3) reciprocal knowledge exchanges among tourists, scientists and residents and (4) spatially balanced research on the effect of tourism on marine ecosystems with methods applicable to many PICTs.KeywordsIsland statesOcean environmentInvasive speciesFish feedingDisturbanceStakeholder knowledge exchange
... These storms were among the strongest in recorded history to make landfall on these island nations. There was significant discussion concerning the role of climate change in increasing the strength and magnitude of each storm, primarily as a result of increasing ocean temperatures [7,8]. Warming ocean waters fuel typhoons, cyclones, and hurricanes and can intensify their destructive potential: larger size, stronger wind speed, and higher storm surge [3,9]. ...
Background:
This two-study paper developed a climate change risk perception model that considers the role of posttraumatic growth (i.e., a reappraisal of life priorities and deeper appreciation of life), resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping, and social support.
Method:
In Study 1, participants were 332 persons in the Philippines who experienced Super Typhoon Haiyan. In Study 2, participants were 709 persons in Fiji who experienced Cyclone Winston. Climate change can increase the size and destructive potential of cyclones and typhoons as a result of warming ocean temperatures, which provides fuel for these storms. Participants completed measures assessing resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping, social support, posttraumatic growth, and climate change risk perception.
Results:
Structural equation modeling was used to develop a climate change risk perception model with data collected in the Philippines and to confirm the model with data collected in Fiji. The model showed that climate change risk perception was influenced by resource loss, posttraumatic stress, coping activation, and posttraumatic growth. The model developed in the Philippines was confirmed with data collected in Fiji.
Conclusions:
Posttraumatic growth played a central role in climate change risk perception. Public health educational efforts should focus on vividly showing how climate change threatens life priorities and that which gives life meaning and can result in loss, stress, and hardship. Disaster response organizations may also use this approach to promote preparedness for disaster threats.
... Post-disaster studies continue to support the core truth that community investment in disaster mitigation pays immediate rewards in the event of a disaster [7]. However, limited studies were conducted on pre-disaster intervention [8], [9]. Thus, this study addresses a critical gap. ...
Awareness, education, readiness, predictive, and warning systems can help communities mitigate the disruptive effects of a natural disaster such as a typhoon. Typhoon mitigation plays an essential role in disaster risk management because it provides accurate and relevant knowledge and skills before, during, and after typhoon procedures. The article summarized a novel, evidence-based approach to developing an online typhoon mitigation program. The program is based on the adapted and contextualized from the Community Disaster Preparedness Handbook by the Department of Disaster Management (Virgin Islands), Weather Underground (owned by the Weather Company, a subsidiary of IBM), the Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon Action Plan by the Liberty Specialty Markets, and the Philippines’ National Risk Reduction and Management Plan for 2011-2028 guidelines. It discusses future directions in the fitness-for-purpose process evaluation, assessment, and documentation.
... Together with these reports, our observations suggest that severe storms can negatively affect tarsier populations through habitat destruction. As the increase of ocean temperature continues due to global warming, further amplified by localized environmental degradation, more intense typhoons are expected to make landfall in the Philippines (Holden & Marshall, 2018). A large unintentional forest fire was also reported to cause habitat destruction in Mt. ...
The Philippine tarsier Carlito syrichta (Linnaeus, 1758) is considered a specially protected flagship species in the Philippines. However, the species is threatened due to natural disasters and human activities. Little is known about the ecology and existing threats of tarsier populations in some islands in the Philippines, particularly in Samar, Dinagat, Biliran, and Leyte. In this study, we report the existence of a population of tarsiers utilizing a karst forest patch in Hindang, Leyte,
and characterize the habitat of the species after a super typhoon. Using field-based observations, camera traps, and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with the stakeholders, we generated baseline
data on tarsiers in Mt. Bontoc, their habitats, and the existing and possible future threats. Results revealed that tarsiers were present in forested areas dominated by small-sized trees having a mean
diameter at breast height (DBH) of 2.5 centimeters and a mean height of 5.0 meters. These trees are harvested for firewood. Recorded threats to the population and its habitat include incidental captures of the animal, typhoons, forest fires, and the presence of exotic animals. FGDs revealed high concerns of the stakeholders for the protection and conservation of the species and the inclusion of the tarsiers for local management and tourism strategies in the future. The study highlights the significance of field visits and community participation to assess the local threats to tarsiers for future actions in terms of biodiversity conservation in fragmented habitats.
... While typhoons and other climatological stressors have always plagued life in the Philippines, climate change is amplifying their frequency and magnitude. Higher sea surface and subsurface temperatures in the Pacific, a result of global warming, increase typhoon strength by diminishing the upwelling of cold ocean water to the surface, which has historically acted as a buffer (Holden and Marshall 2018). Stronger storms create stronger storm surges, especially when coupled with sea-level rise, while increasing wind speeds increase damage to crops and infrastructure. ...
This study analyzes whether climate disasters and climate-induced food scarcities influence individuals’ willingness to fight for the state in a pro-government militia in the Philippines. We find that experiencing a disaster or subsistence loss corresponds to an increased willingness to join, even when accounting for other prominent explanations in the literature. This outcome, we argue, reflects the impact of climate change on the opportunity costs of conflict participation, especially in regions dependent on agriculture for income and food production, as diminished livelihood opportunities and subsistence resource access increase the viability of conflict participation as a strategy for livelihood diversification.
... 114, 142). This socio-natural insight for thinking about disasters is catalysed by the correlations made between climate change and the increase in intensity and frequency of natural hazards, such as rising seawater levels, droughts, floods, forest fires and cyclones (IPCC, 2021, p. 33; see Holden and Marshall, 2018;Kao and Ganguly, 2011;Steffan et al., 2015;Thomas, 2017;Westra et al., 2014). Not only is nature now more violent and complex, it is also less predictable due to climate and biogeochemical instability in the earth system. ...
Dramatic alterations to the natural environment by human activity have produced a permanent rupture in the earth system; the relative stable epoch of the Holocene has given way to a volatile Anthropocene. Accepting these claims mean that we now live in this altered physical reality, inviting us to rethink how we conceptualize disasters. Yet disaster scholars have been hesitant to apply the Anthropocene label and acknowledge the profound changes it can bring to the study of disasters. This article asks if this label is a necessary adage or unnecessary baggage for disaster studies by examining the possibilities and challenges of engaging with the Anthropocene. An analysis of the concepts, causes and consequences of disasters reveals how the Anthropocene provides, as the very least, a theoretical heuristic for challenging linear temporal assumptions, the epistemological status of uncertainty and the location of agency in disaster studies.
... Because of its location in the tropical Pacific, archipelago (i.e., a group of islands) topography, and dense coastal population, the Philippines ( Figure 1) is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change and typhoon disasters [20,39,47,48]. The Philippines also has a large share of Twitter users in the world. ...
Social media has been a vital channel for communicating and broadcasting disaster-related information. However, the global spatiotemporal patterns of social media users’ activities, interactions, and connections after a natural disaster remain unclear. Hence, we integrated geocoding, geovisualization, and complex network methods to illustrate and analyze the online social network’s spatiotemporal evolution. Taking the super typhoon Haiyan as a case, we constructed a retweeting network and mapped this network according to the tweets’ location information. The results show that (1) the distribution of in-degree and out-degree follow power-law and retweeting networks are scale-free. (2) A local catastrophe could attract significant global interest but with strong geographical heterogeneity. The super typhoon Haiyan especially attracted attention from the United States, Europe, and Australia, in which users are more active in posting and forwarding disaster-related tweets than other regions (except the Philippines). (3) The users’ interactions and connections are also significantly different between countries and regions. Connections and interactions between the Philippines and the United States, Europe, and Australia were much closer than in other regions. Therefore, the agencies and platforms should also pay attention to other countries and regions outside the disaster area to provide more valuable information for the local people.
... "Typhoon," originating from the Chinese tai (strong) and fung (wind), is the term used to describe a tropical cyclone in the Western Pacific Ocean. Tropical cyclones are developed in the northern hemisphere during the months of JulyeNovember in an area just north of the equator in a large area ranging from 130 to 180 East and 5 to 15 North (Holden and Marshall, 2018). ...
The official website of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said more tropical cyclones (TCs) enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) than anywhere else in the world. With the average of 20 TCs per year, about eight (8) or nine (9) of them are crossing the Philippines. The peak of the typhoon season is July through October, when nearly 70% of all typhoons develop (http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/tropical-cyclone-information). Based on the report of the Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC), five of the typhoons that visit the country are destructive and being situated in the “Pacific Ring of Fire” makes the country vulnerable to frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Its geographical location and physical environment also contribute to its high susceptibility to tsunami, sea-level rise, storm surges, landslides, flash/flood/flooding, and drought (https://www.adrc.asia/nationinformation.php?NationCode=608&Lang=en). For the past years, some typhoons that visited the country brought serious damages and kill many Filipinos by floods and landslides. The researcher comes up with the idea of assessing the aftermath of 2020 typhoons that visited the country. The data used by the researcher were collected from different sources, namely NDRRMC (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council), PAGASA, social media and other websites. The result of the study reveals that the most destructive typhoon in 2020 that caused huge damage on the infrastructure and agriculture is Ulysses followed by Rolly, Quinta, Ambo, Vicky, Pepito, Ofel, and Marce. Most of the affected areas are those nearer to water bodies, surrounded by mountains with few trees to absorb a huge amount of water and situated in the low-lying areas.
... Japan as a country bears a large responsibility for the climate emergency, and it possesses enormous resources to adapt to and defend against those risks. On the other hand, in another East Asian archipelago not far from Japan, the Filipino people experience a disproportionately large burden of damage from climate change, but bear a fraction of Japan's responsibility for its causes (Holden & Marshall, 2018). ...
Every locale is a realisation of its own deep history and geography. As humanity continues to push beyond the limits of nature’s capacity to provide solutions to the outcomes of modernization, in 21st century Japan everything is rendered local and global, particular and universal. In this chapter I examine the geology, ecology, and climate of Japan within the context of present-day environmental breakdown. Taking examples mainly from Tokyo Prefecture as a global locale, I show how Asia, with Japan in the vanguard, has emerged as a leading participant in the Great Acceleration of the depletion of the Earth’s environmental capacity. Although Japan and Tokyo are by no means the only culprit, the consequence is that the Earth is passing from the stable Holocene into the Anthropocene epoch, where instability and unpredictability are the new, less forgiving, normal. I end by concluding that the Anthropocene disruption will force us to decentre and decelerate our humanity, and acknowledge that we are all connected; that Earth is our locale.
... The other environmental risks tended to reflect their frequency in each country. Scores for typhoons in the Philippines were particularly high and are consistent with the country being one of the most vulnerable to typhoons (Holden & Marshall, 2018). In Indonesia, where typhoon risk is low, its importance only ranked sixth. ...
Internal migration of the urban population is substantial with diverse drivers, barriers, and reasons for destination choices. Whereas internal mobility in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries is well-studied under the umbrella of residential, labour, amenity, and retirement migration, such research in non-OECD countries is rare and limited to the economic aspects of migration. In this study, we assess the relative importance of social, environmental, and amenity factors in urban peoples' destination choices within three countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines) through an online survey. Concerns about safety and high living costs at potential destinations were among the most important factors in mobility decisions, whereas amenities were the least important. A high risk from climatic hazards, particularly from severe ones such as flooding and typhoons, was also an influential destination disincentive, particularly for people in Malaysia and the Phil-ippines, that is, likely to grow in importance as climate change accelerates unabated. To maintain the attractiveness of highly exposed cities and regions to skilled people, urban planners must minimise these risks, for example, through crime control, flood disaster management, and early warning systems.
... Besides, climate change may also affect tropical storm frequencies, paths, and velocities. For instance, some recent extreme events in the Philippines (e.g., the 2011 tropical storm Washi, the 2012 typhoon Bopha, the 2013 typhoon Haiyan) have shown east-to-west trajectories rather than commonly observed southeast-to-northwest ones [24]. These variations of the environmental conditions may affect the wind hazard of the country and, ultimately, the wind risk profile of selected sites. ...
Recent catastrophic events in Southeast Asia have emphasized that roofs made of wood/steel frames and lightweight metal roofing sheets are the most vulnerable component in the building envelope when subjected to typhoon-induced wind uplift. This also applies to aging cultural heritage (CH) assets, which deserve special consideration because of their intangible value for local communities, and their essential role for inclusive and sustainable socio-economic development through cultural tourism.
This paper introduces a simulation-based framework for fragility analysis and typhoon risk assessment of CH-asset roofs. Fastener pullout and roof-panel pullover are explicitly considered in the proposed framework to model the progressive failure of the roof system. A simplified roof geometry is assumed, requiring limited information about the structure under investigation and low computational resources. Such a low computational burden allows modeling wind-induced demands and component capacities probabilistically as well as considering the effects of load redistributions due to fastener failure and fastener/roof-panel corrosion. Variance-based sensitivity analysis (i.e., Sobol’ indices) based on polynomial chaos expansions of the limit state function is also performed, highlighting the parameters most affecting typhoon-fragility variance and then requiring special attention during data collection. Climate-change impact on the typhoon risk estimates is finally investigated through the use of various scenarios and a time-dependent function modifying the wind hazard profile of the site where the assets of interest are located.
The proposed framework is applied to 25 CH assets in Iloilo City, Philippines. The required input data was collected through rapid visual surveying combined with new technologies, such as drones. It is shown that the proposed framework can be adopted in practice for both risk prioritization at a building-portfolio level and simplified risk assessment at a building-specific level.
... The Philippines is one of the countries that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change including typhoons. Greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change, and this is contributing to stronger typhoons (Holden and Marshall 2018). Around 20 typhoons occur in the country in a year (PAGASA n.d.). ...
Climate change and malnutrition are two global phenomena that affect millions of population groups. The Philippines is considered one of the most vulnerable countries for extreme natural events and at the same time has a high prevalence of underweight (19.0%) and stunting (28.8%) in 2019 among under five children. The nutritionally vulnerable groups are children, pregnant and lactating women, and elderly. These groups are also greatly affected by climate change-related events then the malnutrition situation is exacerbated. The local nutrition workers are the frontline workers who plan, implement, and monitor nutrition programs. Mainstreaming climate change in the local nutrition planning processes will be facilitated if nutrition workers are knowledgeable. This study aimed to determine the current knowledge, attitudes and practices of nutrition workers and perceptions on how to mainstream climate change in the nutrition sector’s local planning system. A survey was conducted among local nutrition workers. Ninety-five percent of nutrition workers were highly knowledgeable, 86% were with high level of attitudes and 50% were exhibiting moderate level of practices related to climate change. The gaps can be narrowed by capacity building and possibly this can lead to mainstreaming climate change in the local nutrition planning process.
... In terms of the occurrence of typhoons, the northern parts of the Philippines receive most of the devastating typhoons compared to the southern parts of the country. These typhoons are stronger, faster, carry more moisture, track differently, and will be aggravated by sea-level rise [10]. Similar to the Philippines, S-shaped extended coastal areas in Vietnam also received seven to eight out of twelve to sixteen active typhoons or tropical cyclones in the South China Sea every year. ...
The paper carried out a comparative assessment of coastal hazards and their resultant impacts on communities and physical systems/resources in the countries located in the Asian coastal regions and maritime areas. Only those natural hazards were considered in the assessment which pawned from climate change-induced phenomena. At the outset, the coastal countries including Bangladesh are grouped into three categories based on their exposure to natural hazards, the degree of vulnerability of the communities, socioeconomic contexts and technological advancements to cope with the challenges. Then the state, nature, pattern of coastal hazards, and their resultant consequences have been analyzed. Secondary research materials, especially the National Communication (NC) reports of the countries submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) were used to undertake the study. The results suggest that the pattern of impacts and their consequences are somewhere identical and, in many areas, different that suggest crosscountry understanding combined with local knowledge is crucial for taking effective policies for adaptation or mitigation planning in respective countries.
... In the Philippines, the teams conducted their research in the archipelagic province of Romblon in central Philippines, particularly in the islands of Sibuyan, Cobrador, and Romblon. These islands are in the Philippine typhoon belt [31]. ...
Destructive weather extremes – the key impacts of the climate emergency – acutely signal the need to increase the resiliency, especially of climate-vulnerable islands and its peoples. “Islands” are detached communities that are either geographically bounded by water or are metaphors for inland off-grid villages. The extant literature on resilient infrastructures is rich, but this corpus is mostly concentrated on food and water systems, security, and transport. Making energy systems resilient in islands, this paper argues, is equally important. In these island energy systems, resilience can be achieved by regarding them as sociotechnical assemblages where engineering innovation is co-produced alongside social and institutional shifts. This article suggests that resilient energy systems in islands can be checked against their explicit characteristics as a system condition, as a set of processes, and as a set of outcomes. Understanding power relations and ethical concerns are also important. To illustrate these characteristics, case studies from Romblon in the Philippines (a geographic island) and Petchaburi in Thailand (a metaphorical island) are provided. There is no perfect resilient island energy systems, but these illustrations show that they can be pursued.
... The super typhoon Maria (July 2018) resulted in seawater flowing back into Wenzhou, where some marine infrastructure was damaged severely, causing a direct economic loss of 3.28 billion yuan. The super typhoon Haiyan in 2013 resulted in 6245 deaths and thousands of injured or missing, despite its early prediction (Holden and Marshall, 2018). It is supposed that a higher design strength of marine structures would have reduced the losses. ...
... Pursuing a low-carbon energy transition pathway is essential for the Philippines since the country is one of the most vulnerable to climate change (Viña et al., 2018). Disasters like the Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013) underlined the threat of extreme weather events on the country's infrastructure and are projected to occur more frequently with increasing temperatures (Holden and Marshall, 2018). Additionally recent research highlighted that effects of climate change threaten societal peace and may increase the intensity of conflicts in the country (Crost et al., 2018). ...
Implementing renewable energy on Philippine islands is essential for sustainable development. Electric cooperatives play a key role to provide renewable energy to marginalized and remote communities not profiting from private sector interest. However, a low-carbon transformation of energy systems implies political, economic, technical, and societal risks and uncertainties. Here, we investigate those faced by the Romblon Electric Cooperative (ROMELCO) in installing one of the Philippines’ first off-grid, hybrid energy system in the small and remote island of Cobrador. We apply a transdisciplinary mixed methods approach including expert interviews, surveys, and focus group discussions. We identify the most serious implementation risk faced by ROMELCO as the discontinuity between the policy pronouncement and implementation practice. We contribute with an analysis of ROMELCO's actions to address the complex bundle of implementation policies and programs for a wider replication and scaling up of cooperative based power supply.
... , 2018). However, the implementation of this policy may displace at least 500,000 urban poor without providing them any alternative housing (Holden and Marshall, 2018). Harmonized policies anchored on sound science may mediate this anthropocene constraint. ...
Biogeographic conditions of the Philippines resulted to its climate change vulnerability, necessitating mitigating response despite negligible accountability to carbon emission. In the present paper the discussions focused on carbon budget apportioning very low global carbon waste contribution of the country. Environ-socio implications were elaborated capturing sphere and anthropocene impacts. Mitigations discussed were anchored on carbon fixation and social dimensions. Mitigating response emphasized on Philippines case studies through reinforced reforestation, waste recovery, policy intervention, sound science education-human capital, and emerging technologies. Overall, the present paper extrapolated an interdisciplinary science approach on carbon reduction and climate change analysis in the Philippines.
The Philippines sits along the edge of the Pacific Ring of Fire, exposed to natural geologic hazards including earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Climate change–related hazards are highly pronounced in the Philippines, namely, typhoons, floods, landslides, and wind gusts. Twenty-two typhoons hit the country in 2020 causing more than a million worth of damages in properties and resources and many deaths and displacing more than a hundred thousand people. This study focused on developing a vulnerability analysis in three barangays identified as flood-prone areas in the City of Santa Rosa in Laguna in the Philippines. The most vulnerable of the structural types is the one with 100% of the structural type destroyed because of its structurally inferior floors (ground) and walls (bamboo). The analysis of physical vulnerability yielded barangay Sinalhan as most vulnerable to floods because it is most vulnerable based on structural type, height of ground floor, and distance from the Laguna Lake. The analysis of socio-economic vulnerability also yielded barangay Sinalhan as most vulnerable to floods. Attention must be paid to land-use policies and urban greening to diminish the impacts of flooding. A combined top-down and bottom-up approach is recommended in order to manage flood risk and build community resilience against future flooding in a manner that is sustainable for urban environments and benefits their populations.
Typhoons are known for causing heavy precipitation, very strong winds, and storm surges. With climate change, the occurrence, strength, and duration of typhoons are changing. Daily, weekly, and monthly precipitation from in situ stations from the NOAA Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN) were compared in the Western North Pacific from 2000 to 2018 against two widely used datasets: NASA’s TRMM TMPA and PERSIANN-CDR. Additionally, precipitation levels during twenty-five typhoons were compared using precipitation estimates. There have been reductions in the average number of typhoons per year from 1959 to present and by month during the months of August, September, and October. Satellite-derived precipitation estimates from PERSIANN and TRMM TMPA explained approximately 50% of the variation in weekly cumulative precipitation and approximately 72% of the variation in monthly cumulative precipitation during the study period (March 2000–December 2018) when using all available stations. When analysis was completed using only stations close to the best track for the entire duration of a typhoon, 62% of the variation was explained, which is comparable to the weekly and monthly cumulative comparisons. However, most of the stations available and with sufficient data were not located in the tracks of the typhoons. It is of utmost importance to better understand typhoon events by utilizing precipitation data from satellite remote sensing in the Western North Pacific.
Although organizations build housing in resource-limited contexts after typhoons and other disasters that is intended to be safer than what existed previously, the performance of these houses in future typhoons—and the factors influencing their performance—is unknown. This study developed a component-level, performance-based wind engineering assessment framework and evaluated the wind performance of 12 semiengineered postdisaster housing designs, representing thousands of houses that were constructed in the Philippines after Typhoon Yolanda. We found that roof panel loss likely occurs first for most designs, at wind speeds equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane/Signal 3 typhoon. Roof shape determines whether this loss is caused by failure at the panel–fastener interface or the purlin-to-truss connection. However, houses with wooden frames and woven bamboo walls also may experience catastrophic racking failures at wind speeds equivalent to Signal 2 or 3 typhoons, a situation exacerbated by strengthening the roof. Results also showed that wind performance varies with roof shape, component spacing, panel thickness, eave length, and connection between purlin and truss. Organizations can use these results to improve housing performance, taking specific care to increase wall capacity. This framework can be expanded to assess housing performance in other resource-limited contexts.
The extent and state of ecosystem health of Philippine mangroves are affected by the occurrences of typhoons (ca. 20 per year). While severe damages (and sometimes even total forest collapse) are commonly reported, there are some cases where mangroves are less damaged and easily recovered implying that some mangroves are either highly vulnerable or resilient. Most studies on effects of typhoons in mangroves (including post-typhoon recovery) are mainly focused on vegetation but rarely on changes in sediment and faunal composition and activities. Also, these studies are mostly short-term and rapid (<1 year) with suboptimal experimental designs because of the lack of baseline data and systematic assessment. In this study, a 15-year synthesis of impacts of typhoon and post-typhoon recovery in selected mangrove sites in the Philippines was discussed and compared with other typhoon-disturbed tropical/subtropical mangroves. The study covered pre- and post-typhoon changes in vegetation, sediment, and faunal assemblages and activities including the assessment of possible recovery and identification of recovery indicators. The study provides an overview of interrelationships of vegetation, sediment (including nutrients), and faunal assemblages and activities as a more integrative approach in damage and recovery assessments. Lastly, the implications of the study on research needs (e.g., systematic and sustained monitoring) and policy and management programs (e.g., effective conservation and restoration programs) for Philippine mangroves were discussed.
The Philippines has an average of twenty tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility every year, with about six to nine making landfall. In September 2011, Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) passed about 200 km north of Manila Bay with maximum sustained wind speeds of 46.3 m/s (CAT 2), yet it was one of the most destructive storms to affect the coastal areas of Metro Manila. In order to further understand the storm surge hazard for Metro Manila, and why Typhoon Nesat was so destructive, both an analysis of historical records and numerical modeling were undertaken. The historical analysis revealed that neither the most intense (with intensity defined as the maximum sustained wind speed of the cyclone) nor the storms that passed closest to the site generated the largest values of surge. Numerical simulations of the storm surge were completed using wind and pressure input data from the Holland vortex model, the Rankine vortex model and reforecast data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model. NCEP data were found to better represent the wind field in the vicinity of Manila Bay, as it accounted for interaction between Typhoon Nesat and the SW monsoon winds. Neglecting these interactions, the storm surge simulations with analytical vortex models underestimated predicted surge values by more than five times, while the simulations with NCEP data accurately modeled the surge. The study highlights the need for improved storm surge warning systems that account for factors other than the cyclone’s maximum sustained wind speeds, which can affect the severity and duration of surge events.
The unusual statistical characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan were investigated using the JTWC best track data from 1945 to 2013, particularly focusing on tropical cyclones making landfall in the Philippines. Haiyan generated the strongest winds among a collection of over 400 past storms, which was 16 % greater than the second strongest typhoon on record (Typhoon Zeb in 1998). The forward speed of Haiyan was nearly twice as fast as the average speed of these weather systems and could be the fastest typhoon on record. Thus, Haiyan can be characterized as both the fastest moving and strongest typhoon measured in the area. The return period for a Haiyan-class typhoon to make landfall was estimated to be 200 years. A statistical analysis also indicated that the number of tropical cyclone making landfall around Leyte Island in the Philippines—the area most severely damaged by Haiyan—has been steadily increasing over the past 7 decades. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that both Haiyan and Zeb occurred during seasons that were characterized by remarkably warm SSTs over the seas surrounding the Philippines.
Keywords
Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) – Tropical cyclone landfalls – Philippines – Return period – Forward speed – Storm surge
Although coral declines have been reported from major reefs of the world, region-specific trends still remain unclear, particularly in areas with high diversity such as the Philippines. We assessed the temporal patterns of the magnitude and trajectory of coral cover change in the Philippines using survey data collected from 317 sites. We examined the rate of change in coral cover in relation to time, effects of bleaching and protection against fishing and assessed the efficacy of marine protected areas (MPAs) using meta-analysis. Results showed an overall increase in coral cover in the Philippines from 1981 to 2010. Protection from fishing contributed to the overall increase in the mean annual rate of change as the coral cover significantly increased within MPAs than outside. The significant differences in the rate of coral cover change through time were influenced by chronic anthropogenic stresses, coinciding with the timing of thermal stress and the establishment of MPAs. The rate of change in coral cover was independent of the level of protection and the age and size of MPA.
Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we investigated the effects of a typhoon on the vegetation and soil development trajectories of monospecific stands of Rhizophora mucronata mangroves of different ages (6-, 8- 10-, 11-, 12-, 17-, 18- and 50-year stands). The vegetation and soil parameters were compared to a reference system comprised of mature, natural mangrove stands. Pre-typhoon measures of vegetation and soil parameters were compared with 1-mo, 7-mo and 9-mo post-typhoon. Prior to the occurrence of the typhoon, there were clear patterns of vegetation and soil development with age of the stands. The development trajectory was however interrupted by the occurrence of the typhoon. Severe damage was more apparent in older mangrove stands (11- and 18- year stands) with very low to no damage in the younger stands. The typhoon-impacted sites experienced a number of changes, including: complete defoliation; reduced living tree densities of 61–69 %; decreased above-ground biomass of 70–79 %; increased soil nutrient levels of 40–60 %; more waterlogged soils by at least 113 % and increased soil temperature of 8–10 °C. Cumulative tree mortality, compounded by the lack of seedling recruits and unfavourable soil conditions may limit long-term recovery of the typhoon-impacted stands.
Super typhoon Durian struck the central Philippines on November 30, 2006 and southern coast of Vietnam on December 5, 2006.
The reported maximum wind exceeded 250 km/h, and the central pressure was 904 hPa during the peak of the system. The typhoon
brought colossal damage, both in terms of lives and in terms of properties to the Philippines and Vietnam while Thailand and
Malaysia were slightly affected. The energy from the high-velocity wind and central pressure drop resulted in the generation
of storm surges along the coastal region of the Philippines including its surrounding islands as well as parts of southern
Vietnam. In this paper, a numerical 2D model is used to study the oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing by 2006 super
typhoon Durian in the coastal regions of the Philippines and Vietnam. The initial study of this model aims to provide some
useful insights before it could be used as a coastal disaster prediction system in the region of South China Sea (SCS). The
atmospheric forcing for the 2D model, which includes the pressure gradient and the wind field, is generated by an empirical
asymmetrical storm model. The simulated results of storm surges due to typhoon Durian at two locations lie in the range of
observed data/estimates published by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC).