ArticlePublisher preview available

The carbon footprint of global tourism

June 2018
Nature Climate Change 8(6)

DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0141-x

Authors:

Manfred Lenzen

The University of Sydney

Futu Faturay

The University of Queensland

Show all 6 authorsHide

Tourism contributes significantly to global gross domestic product, and is forecast to grow at an annual 4%, thus outpacing many other economic sectors. However, global carbon emissions related to tourism are currently not well quantified. Here, we quantify tourism-related global carbon flows between 160 countries, and their carbon footprints under origin and destination accounting perspectives. We find that, between 2009 and 2013, tourism’s global carbon footprint has increased from 3.9 to 4.5 GtCO2e, four times more than previously estimated, accounting for about 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Transport, shopping and food are significant contributors. The majority of this footprint is exerted by and in high-income countries. The rapid increase in tourism demand is effectively outstripping the decarbonization of tourism-related technology. We project that, due to its high carbon intensity and continuing growth, tourism will constitute a growing part of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

| Top bilateral embodied carbon movements. In 2013, international travel caused a carbon footprint of about 1 GtCO 2 e, or 23% of the global carbon footprint of tourism. Arrows point in the direction of embodied carbon flow, which-in accordance with the literature-is the direction of commodity trade, and is opposite to the movement of people. Red arrows: bilateral international movements belonging to the top 10% of the total 1 GtCO 2 e. Yellow arrows: top 10-30%. Orange arrows: 30-50%. Blue arrows: the remainder.

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Carbon footprint measures of selected top-ranking countries for 2013 Top left, RBA carbon footprint by nationality of visitor. Blue, international travel; yellow, domestic travel. Bottom left, Net RBA–DBA balance. Positive for net origins; negative for net destinations. Top right, Per capita DBA carbon footprint by destination. Blue, international travel; yellow, domestic travel. Bottom right, Per capita net RBA–DBA balance. Positive for net travellers; negative for net hosts.

…

Top bilateral embodied carbon movements to and/or from Europe Arrows point in the direction of embodied carbon flow, which—in accordance with the literature—is the direction of commodity trade, and is opposite to the movement of people. Top flows to and/or from Europe that constitute 30% of the total 1 GtCO2e are coloured red on the map.

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Breakdown of the tourism carbon footprint into purchased commodities and emitting industries, and into high-, middle- and low-income countries ‘Purchased commodities’ represent the consumers’ end-of-the-supply-chain network, ‘emitting industries’ the producers’ end. Due to the many input–output tables of low-income countries not distinguishing modes, ‘Trans’ represents unspecified transport, which includes air transport. The three per capita GDP brackets are L (<US$3,000), M (US$3,000–US$10,000) and H (>US$10,000), and N represents the number of countries in the income group. 2013 tourist volumes from the three groups are 53.9 million (L), 281.5 million (M) and 656.7 million (H). For further details and an explanation of sector abbreviations see Supplementary Section 3.3.

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Affluence and technology as drivers of the carbon footprint of global tourism for the RBA perspective Left, Affluence is measured as per capita GDP (including regression curve from Supplementary Section 4.8.3). Right, Technology is measured as carbon intensity. Circle size represents population, and N represents the number of countries in the sample.

…

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Articles

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0141-x

1ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. 2Department of Transportation & Communication

Management Science, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan, Republic of China. 3UQ Business School, The University of Queensland,

Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. 4Fiscal Policy Agency, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5Sydney Business School,

The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. *e-mail: arunima.malik@sydney.edu.au

Global tourism is a trillion-dollar industry, representing in the

order of 7% of global exports and contributing significantly

to global gross domestic product (GDP)1. International arriv-

als and tourism receipts have been growing at an annual 3–5%, out-

pacing the growth of international trade, and in 2016 exceeded 1

billion and US$1.2 trillion, respectively1,2. Clearly, economic activity

at this scale has a significant impact on the environment3. In par-

ticular transport, a key ingredient of travel, is an energy- and car-

bon-intensive commodity, rendering tourism a potentially potent

contributor to climate change. The sensitivity and vulnerability of

destinations (such as winter- and coastal-recreation locations) to

weather and climate change also suggest that, as a result of climate

change, the tourism industry will in turn undergo drastic future

change and will need to adapt to increasing risk4. Given future pro-

jections of an unabated 4% growth beyond 20251,2, the continuous

monitoring and analysis of carbon emissions associated with tour-

ism is becoming more pressing.

By definition, the carbon footprint of tourism should include

the carbon emitted directly during tourism activities (for example,

combustion of petrol in vehicles) as well as the carbon embodied in

the commodities purchased by tourists (for example, food, accom-

modation, transport, fuel and shopping; Supplementary Section 1).

Tourism carbon footprints therefore need to be evaluated using

methods that cover the life cycle or supply chain emissions of

tourism-related goods and services (Supplementary Section 1).

Life-cycle assessment5–7 and input–output analysis8–14 have been

used to quantify the carbon footprint of specific aspects of tour-

ism operations such as hotels5, events6 and transportation infra-

structure7,15, and in particular countries (or regions thereof) such

as Spain5,10,11, the UK8, Taiwan9, China15, Saudi Arabia6, Brazil7,

Iceland14, Australia13 and New Zealand12.

Previous estimates of global CO2 emissions from selected tour-

ism sectors give values of 1.3 and 1.17 GtCO2 for 200516,17 and 1.12 Gt

for 201018, amounting to about 2.5–3% of global CO2-equivalent

(CO2e) emissions. However, these analyses do not cover the sup-

ply chains underpinning tourism, and do not therefore represent

true carbon footprints. A WTO–UNEP–WMO report16 states that

(p. 134) ‘[t]aking into account all lifecycle and indirect energy needs

related to tourism, it is expected that the sum of emissions would be

higher, although there are no specific data for global tourism avail-

able’. Similarly, Gössling and Peeters18 state that (p. 642) “… a more

complete analysis of the energy needed to maintain the tourism

system would also have to include food and beverages, infrastruc-

ture construction and maintenance, as well as retail and services, all

of these on the basis of a life cycle perspective accounting for the

energy embodied in the goods and services consumed in tourism.

However, no database exists for these and the estimate thus must be

considered conservative.”

This work fills an important knowledge gap by offering a com-

prehensive calculation of the carbon footprint of global tourism.

We source the most detailed compendium of tourism satellite

accounts (TSAs) available so far (55 countries with individual

TSAs and 105 countries with United Nations World Tourism

Organization (UNWTO) data; Supplementary Sections 2.2 and

3.1.2), integrate this into a comprehensive global multi-region

input–output (MRIO) database (Supplementary Section 2.5), and

use Leontief’s standard model (Section ‘Input-output analysis’) to

establish carbon footprint estimates that cover both the direct and

indirect, supply chain contributions of tourist activities. In addi-

tion, we advance current knowledge by (1) including not only

emissions of CO2 but also those of CH4, N2O, hydrofluorocarbons

(HFCs), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), SF6 and NF3 (Supplementary

Section 3.2), (2) presenting an annual carbon footprint time series

from 2009 to 2013, (3) analysing drivers of change, (4) providing

details about carbon-intensive supply chains, and (5) comparing

two accounting perspectives.

The two accounting perspectives mentioned in the final point

(5) are residence-based accounting (RBA) and destination-based

accounting (DBA). Both perspectives are variants of the well-

known consumption-based accounting principle19; however, while

RBA allocates consumption-based emissions to the tourist’s coun-

try of residence, DBA allocates them to the tourist’s destination

country13. The two perspectives serve clear and distinct purposes.

RBA can shed light on the determinants of travel choices, such as

The carbon footprint of global tourism

Manfred Lenzen 1, Ya-Yen Sun2,3, Futu Faturay 1,4, Yuan-Peng Ting2, Arne Geschke 1 and

Arunima Malik 1,5*

Tourism contributes significantly to global gross domestic product, and is forecast to grow at an annual 4%, thus outpacing

many other economic sectors. However, global carbon emissions related to tourism are currently not well quantified. Here,

we quantify tourism-related global carbon flows between 160 countries, and their carbon footprints under origin and destina-

tion accounting perspectives. We find that, between 2009 and 2013, tourism’s global carbon footprint has increased from

3.9 to 4.5 GtCO2e, four times more than previously estimated, accounting for about 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Transport, shopping and food are significant contributors. The majority of this footprint is exerted by and in high-income coun-

tries. The rapid increase in tourism demand is effectively outstripping the decarbonization of tourism-related technology.

We project that, due to its high carbon intensity and continuing growth, tourism will constitute a growing part of the world’s

greenhouse gas emissions.

Correction: Author Correction

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 8 | JUNE 2018 | 522–528 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

522

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