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Entertaining without endorsing: The case for the scientific investigation of anomalous cognition
Abstract
Empirical reports in mainstream journals that human cognition extends in ways that challenge the current boundaries of science (anomalous cognition) has been viewed with dismay by many who see it as evidence that science is broken. Here the authors make the case for the value of conducting and publishing well-designed studies investigating anomalous cognition. They distinguish between the criteria that justify entertaining the possibility of anomalous cognition from those required to endorse it as a bona fide phenomenon. In evaluating these 2 distinct thresholds, the authors draw on Bayes’s theorem to argue that scientists may reasonably differ in their appraisals of the likelihood that anomalous cognition is possible. Although individual scientists may usefully vary in the criteria that they hold both for entertaining and endorsing anomalous cognition, we provide arguments for why researchers should consider adopting a liberal criterion for entertaining anomalous cognition while maintaining a very strict criterion for the outright endorsement of its existence. Grounded in an understanding of the justifiability of disparate views on the topic, the authors encourage humility on both the part of those who present evidence in support of anomalous cognition and those who dispute the merit of its investigation.
... -based on physical or biology principles -to explain such interactions even if they exist (Kuhn, 1962) 3 . Nevertheless, which ever explanation is correct, the results of psi research may be informative for the wider psychological sciences (Schooler et al., 2018). Indeed, they lead to two opposites but very heuristic hypothesis: (a) within this domain of research, which has been conducted by hundreds of researchers whose critical efforts span over a century, the researchers have either been fraudulent or have been fooled, even when using the most reliable tools of scientific research and (b) psi exists and human consciousness can interact with its environment beyond the usual boundaries of space and time. ...
... It also shows how psi might be implicated in the "hard problem" of consciousness (Chalmers, 2007) or the "problem of measurement" (Wigner, 1963). Even if the possibility that psi exists sounds very implausible to many (Wiseman, 2010;Reber and Alcock, 2020), and as proposed recently by Schooler et al. (2018), a neutral and respectful approach to this topic might open heuristic debates within the wider field of psychology concerning the replicability crisis and the nature of consciousness. ...
The replicability crisis in psychology has been influenced by the results of nine experiments conducted by Bem (2011) and presented as supporting the existence of precognition. In this paper, we hope to show how the debate concerning these experiments could be an opportunity to develop original thinking about psychology and replicability. After a few preliminary remarks about psi and scientific epistemology, we examine how psi results lead to a paradox which questions how appropriate the scientific method is to psi research. This paradox highlights a problem in the way experiments are conducted in psi research and its potential consequence on mainstream research in psychology. Two classical experiments - the Ganzfeld protocol and the Bem studies - are then analyzed in order to illustrate this paradox and its consequences. Mainstream research is also addressed in the broader context of the replication crisis, decline effect and questionable research practices. Several perspectives for future research are proposed in conclusion and underline the heuristic value of psi studies for psychology.
... Unfortunately, academia has a similar negative view of noetic experiences. Scientific research into these topics is taboo in most Western academic settings (Cardeña, 2015;Schooler et al., 2018). Thus, it is unlikely that the volume of research on these topics is commensurate with their prevalence. ...
Noetic comes from the Greek word noēsis, meaning inner wisdom or direct knowing. Noetic experiences often transcend the perception of our five senses and are ubiquitous worldwide, although no instrument exists to evaluate noetic characteristics both within and between individuals. We developed the Noetic Signature Inventory (NSI) through an iterative qualitative and statistical process as a tool to subjectively assess noetic characteristics. Study 1 developed and evaluated a 175-item NSI using 521 self-selected research participants, resulting in a 46-item NSI with an 11-factor model solution. Study 2 examined the 11-factor solution, construct validity, and test–retest reliability, resulting in a 44-item NSI with a 12-factor model solution. Study 3 confirmed the final 44-item NSI in a diverse population. The 12-factors were: (1) Inner Knowing, (2) Embodied Sensations, (3) Visualizing to Access or Affect, (4) Inner Knowing Through Touch, (5) Healing, (6) Knowing the Future, (7) Physical Sensations from Other People, (8) Knowing Yourself, (9) Knowing Other’s Minds, (10) Apparent Communication with Non-physical Beings, (11) Knowing Through Dreams, and (12) Inner Voice. The NSI demonstrated internal consistency, convergent and divergent content validity, and test–retest reliability. The NSI can be used for the future studies to evaluate intra- and inter-individual variation of noetic experiences.
... Normally regarded as a fringe topic, we will attempt to explore the possibility of its occurrence while remaining within the confines of accepted scientific method. We ask only that the reader entertains (without endorsing) the possibility of consciousness at scales beyond the individual human level, as we sketch an outline of how this may physically occur, how it may be measured, and what it implies for our understanding of conscious, cognitive systems (Schooler et al., 2018). ...
Crick and Koch’s 1990 “neurobiological theory of consciousness” sparked the race for the physical correlates of subjective experience. 30 years later, cognitive sciences trend toward consideration of the brain’s electromagnetic field as the primary seat of consciousness, the “to be” of the individual. Recent advancements in laboratory tools have preceded an influx of studies reporting a synchronization between the neuronally generated EM fields of interacting individuals. An embodied and enactive neuroscientific approach has gained traction in the wake of these findings wherein consciousness and cognition are theorized to be regulated and distributed beyond the individual. We approach this frontier to extend the implications of person-to-person synchrony to propose a process of combination whereby coupled individual agents merge into a hierarchical cognitive system to which they are subsidiary. Such is to say, the complex mammalian consciousness humans possess may not be the tip of the iceberg, but another step in a succeeding staircase. To this end, the axioms and conjectures of General Resonance Theory are utilized to describe this phenomenon of interpersonal resonant combination. Our proposal describes a coupled system of spatially distributed EM fields that are synchronized through recurrent, entraining behavioral interactions. The system, having achieved sufficient synchronization, enjoys an optimization of information flow that alters the conscious states of its merging agents and enhances group performance capabilities. In the race for the neurobiological correlates of subjective experience, we attempt the first steps in the journey toward defining the physical basis of “group consciousness.” The establishment of a concrete account of the combination of consciousness at a scale superseding individual human consciousness remains speculation, but our suggested approach provides a framework for empirical testing of these possibilities.
... Many words have been ascribed to the noetic experience: intuition; clairvoyance; telepathy; psychokinesis; precognition; psi; psychic; extended human capacities; and anomalous information reception, to name a few. Strong taboos preclude open discussion of these topics in most Western academic settings (Cardeña, 2015;Schooler et al., 2018;Sidky, 2018). Thus, many may not feel comfortable transparently discussing or researching these topics, despite growing evidence for them in laboratories and real-world settings (Cardeña, 2018;Cardeña et al., 2015) and their rampant global prevalence (Bourguignon, 1976;Castro et al., 2014;A. ...
The term “noetic” comes from the Greek word noēsis/noētikos that means inner wisdom, direct knowing, intuition, or implicit understanding. Strong cultural taboos exist about sharing these experiences. Thus, many may not feel comfortable transparently discussing or researching these topics, despite growing evidence that these experiences may be real. The study’s objective was to qualitatively evaluate first-hand accounts of noetic experiences. 521 English-speaking adults from around the world completed an online survey that collected demographic data and four open-ended questions about noetic experiences. Thematic analysis was used to characterize the data. The ten most used codes were expressing to or sharing with others, impacting decision-making, intuition/”just knowing,” meditation/hypnosis, inner visions, setting intentions/getting into the “state,” healing others, writing for self, and inner voice. There were five main themes identified: 1. Ways of Engagement; 2. Ways of Knowing; 3. Types of Information; 4. Ways of Affecting; and 5. Ways of Expressing. Subthemes. Future research will include investigating the nuances of these themes and also establishing standardized methods for evaluating them. This would also then inform curricula and therapies to support people in these experiences.
... A large body of phenomenal reports about precognition experiences [37][38][39], together with a number of empirical studies and meta-analyses thereof, indicate the existence of precognition phenomena and have even evoked hypotheses about the relevance of precognition during the evolution of human cognition [40,41]. On the other hand, phenomenal reports cannot be confirmed statistically and replications of many of the empirical studies failed to reproduce the effect, taking the existence of precognition into question [41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50]. ...
Current theories about visual perception assume that our perceptual system weights the a priori incomplete, noisy and ambiguous sensory information with previous, memorized perceptual experiences in order to construct stable and reliable percepts. These theories are supported by numerous experimental findings. Theories about precognition have an opposite point of view. They assume that information from the future can have influence on perception, thoughts, and behavior. Several experimental studies provide evidence for precognition effects, other studies found no such effects. One problem may be that the vast majority of precognition paradigms did not systematically control for potential effects from the perceptual history. In the present study, we presented ambiguous Necker cube stimuli and disambiguated cube variants and systematically tested in two separate experiments whether perception of a currently observed ambiguous Necker cube stimulus can be influenced by a disambiguated cube variant, presented in the immediate perceptual past (perceptual history effects) and/or in the immediate perceptual future (precognition effects). We found perceptual history effects, which partly depended on the length of the perceptual history trace but were independent of the perceptual future. Results from some individual participants suggest on the first glance a precognition pattern, but results from our second experiment make a perceptual history explanation more probable. On the group level, no precognition effects were statistically indicated. The perceptual history effects found in the present study are in confirmation with related studies from the literature. The precognition analysis revealed some interesting individual patterns, which however did not allow for general conclusions. Overall, the present study demonstrates that any future experiment about sensory or extrasensory perception urgently needs to control for potential perceptual history effects and that temporal aspects of stimulus presentation are of high relevance.
... For over a century, hundreds of studies indicated human mind may receive information beyond the senses, and intention may influence the physical world, with small yet highly significant effects (Schooler, Baumgart & Franklin, 2018). Current experimental evidence with sophisticated research protocols makes anomalous phenomena of consciousness as at least plausible. ...
Religiosity is an important source of spiritual support for individuals diagnosed with
cancer. Drawing on religion enables cancer patients to find meaning and purpose in their
illness and provides comfort in the face of physical and mental difficulties. However,
religious and spiritual factors do not always bring comfort as they can also generate
conflicts or distress. The twofold role played by religion in cancer is clearly visible in the
domain of coping which reflects the ways of understanding and dealing with stressful life
events. The aim of this paper is to examine whether religiosity is related to illness
acceptance in cancer patients and, furthermore, whether these relationships are mediated
by religious and non-religious coping styles. 317 patients (160 women and 157 men) with
gastrointestinal cancer completed measures of religiosity, religious coping, non-religious
coping, and illness acceptance. Results showed that religiosity conceptualized as the
religious meaning system was related to illness acceptance, religious coping, and nonreligious coping. Furthermore, SEM analysis demonstrated that three coping styles:
problem-focused, meaning-focused, and negative religious mediated the associations
between religiosity and illness acceptance. These findings suggest that the relationship of religiosity with illness acceptance is mediated by both religious and non-religious coping which work together in shaping cancer patients' responses to illness.
... A recent paper argued that "researchers should consider adopting a liberal criterion for entertaining anomalous cognition while maintaining a very strict criterion for the outright endorsement of its existence." 53 Other scientists are open to the rigorous study of EHEs such as the Parapsychological Association within the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Division of Perceptual Studies at the University of Virginia School of Medicine, and a call for an open, informed study of all aspects of consciousness including EHEs endorsed by over 100 scientists and major university worldwide. 54 Few surveys have evaluated belief or prevalence of reported EHE among scientists and engineers. ...
Context: Throughout history people have reported exceptional experiences that appear to transcend the everyday boundaries of space and time, such as perceiving someone's thoughts from a distance. Because such experiences are associated with superstition, and some violate currently accepted materialist conventions, one might assume that scientists and engineers would be much less likely to report instances of these experiences than the general population. Objectives: To evaluate 1) the prevalence of exceptional human experiences (EHEs), 2) the level of paranormal belief, 3) the relationship between them, and 4) potential predictors of EHEs in three groups. Participants: Potential volunteers were randomly selected to receive invitations for an anonymous survey. Main Measures: Data were collected on 25 different types of EHEs, demographics, religious or spiritual affiliations, paranormal beliefs, mental health, and personality traits. Group differences were analyzed with chi-square tests and analysis of variance, and predictors were evaluated with a general linear model. Results: 94.0% of the general population (n = 283), 93.2% of scientists and engineers (n = 175), and 99.3% of enthusiasts (n = 441) endorsed at least one EHE (X² (2) = 21.1, p < 0.0005). Paranormal belief was highest in EHE enthusiasts, followed by scientists and the general population (F(2,769) = 116.2, p < 0.0005). Belief was positively correlated with experience (r = 0.61, p < 0.0005). An exploratory general linear model showed that variables such as mental health, personality, impact and family history predict the endorsement and frequency of EHEs. This study indicates that EHEs occur frequently in both the general population and in scientists and engineers.
Objective: Four laboratory studies and an online experiment explored psychophysical (mind-matter) interactions with quantum entangled photons. Method: Entanglement correlation strength measured in real-time was presented via a graph or dynamic images displayed on a computer monitor or web browser. Participants were tasked with mentally influencing that metric. Results: A statistically significant increase in entanglement strength was obtained in experimental conditions in the four lab studies (p < 0.02), with particularly strong results observed in three studies conducted at the Institute of Noetic Sciences (p < 0.0002). Modest results (p < 0.05) were observed in a high-quality subset of entanglement samples in an online experiment. Control experiments using the same equipment and protocols, but without observers present, showed results consistent with chance expectation in both the lab and online studies. Conclusion: These outcomes suggest that the fidelity of entangled states and the nonlocal resource they entail may be mutable in systems that include conscious awareness. This is potentially of interest for quantum information technologies such as quantum computation, encryption, key distribution, and teleportation. The results are also relevant for interpretations of quantum theory, especially if future studies show that entanglement strength can be mentally modulated above the Tsirelson Bound – the upper limit predicted by quantum theory. Such an outcome would suggest that quantum theory in its present form does not hold when physical systems interact with certain mental states. The results of these exploratory experiments justify continued investigation of entangled photons as targets of mind-matter interaction.
The term “noetic” comes from the Greek word noēsis/noētikos that means inner wisdom, direct knowing, intuition, or implicit understanding. Strong cultural taboos exist about sharing these experiences. Thus, many may not feel comfortable transparently discussing or researching these topics, despite growing evidence that these experiences may be real. The study’s objective was to qualitatively evaluate first-hand accounts of noetic experiences. 521 English-speaking adults from around the world completed an online survey that collected demographic data and four open-ended questions about noetic experiences. Thematic analysis was used to characterize the data. The ten most used codes were expressing to or sharing with others, impacting decision-making, intuition/”just knowing,” meditation/hypnosis, inner visions, setting intentions/getting into the “state,” healing others, writing for self, and inner voice. There were five main themes identified: 1. Ways of Engagement; 2. Ways of Knowing; 3. Types of Information; 4. Ways of Affecting; and 5. Ways of Expressing. Subthemes. Future research will include investigating the nuances of these themes and also establishing standardized methods for evaluating them. This would also then inform curricula and therapies to support people in these experiences.
The term “noetic” comes from the Greek word noēsis/noētikos that means inner wisdom, direct knowing, intuition, or implicit understanding. Strong cultural taboos exist about sharing these experiences. Thus, many may not feel comfortable transparently discussing or researching these topics, despite growing evidence that these experiences may be real. The study’s objective was to qualitatively evaluate first-hand accounts of noetic experiences. 521 English-speaking adults from around the world completed an online survey that collected demographic data and four open-ended questions about noetic experiences. Thematic analysis was used to characterize the data. The ten most used codes were expressing to or sharing with others, impacting decision-making, intuition/”just knowing,” meditation/hypnosis, inner visions, setting intentions/getting into the “state,” healing others, writing for self, and inner voice. There were five main themes identified: 1. Ways of Engagement; 2. Ways of Knowing; 3. Types of Information; 4. Ways of Affecting; and 5. Ways of Expressing. Subthemes. Future research will include investigating the nuances of these themes and also establishing standardized methods for evaluating them. This would also then inform curricula and therapies to support people in these experiences.
Previous studies have shown that the choice reaction time to a positive or negatively valenced photo can be influenced by following positive or negative words. Congruent photo- word pairs led to shorter reaction times than incongruent pairs. Since the potentially influencing word appears after the button is pressed, this effect has been described as a retroactive psi effect (Bem, 2011, Exp. 4). The present paper reports on two studies that replicated the original English retroactive priming task using German words. Two new analysis methods are applied by (1) assessing whether the influence of a classic anterograde priming effect is detectable, which is not, and (2) controlling in study 2 for potential false positive effects by utilizing a specially designed sham control task. By applying confirmatory analyses criteria, the anomalous cognition hypothesis concerning a positive psi effect is rejected in both studies. Exploratory post-hoc analysis shows a significant positive retroactive priming effect in study 1 for men only and an overall weak significant negative priming effect in study 2. We discuss these ambivalent findings as typical anomalous result patterns in experimental parapsychology. Through these results, both those who are sceptic of anomalous cognition and those who believe in it can find confirmation of their assumptions.
This editorial introduced the current issue which consists of five articles addressing what has variously been termed precognition, precognitive ability , and retrocausal or retroactive influences —that is, the possibility that people can make “accurate prediction of future events without inferential means”.
Prospection, the act of attempting to foresee one’s future, is generally assumed to be based on conscious and nonconscious inferences from past experiences and anticipation of future possibilities. Most scientists consider the idea that prospection may also involve influences from the future to be flatly impossible due to violation of common sense or constraints based on one or more physical laws. We present several classes of empirical evidence challenging this common assumption. If this line of evidence can be successfully and independently replicated using preregistered designs and analyses, then the consequences for the interpretation of experimental results from any empirical domain would be profound.
Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing present attractive alternatives to classical inference using confidence intervals and p values. In part I of this series we outline ten prominent advantages of the Bayesian approach. Many of these advantages translate to concrete opportunities for pragmatic researchers. For instance, Bayesian hypothesis testing allows researchers to quantify evidence and monitor its progression as data come in, without needing to know the intention with which the data were collected. We end by countering several objections to Bayesian hypothesis testing. Part II of this series discusses JASP, a free and open source software program that makes it easy to conduct Bayesian estimation and testing for a range of popular statistical scenarios (Wagenmakers et al. this issue).
Finkel, Rusbult, Kumashiro, and Hannon (2002, Study 1) demonstrated a causal link between subjective commitment to a relationship and how people responded to hypothetical betrayals of that relationship. Participants primed to think about their commitment to their partner (high commitment) reacted to the betrayals with reduced exit and neglect responses relative to those primed to think about their independence from their partner (low commitment). The priming manipulation did not affect constructive voice and loyalty responses. Although other studies have demonstrated a correlation between subjective commitment and responses to betrayal, this study provides the only experimental evidence that inducing changes to subjective commitment can causally affect forgiveness responses. This Registered Replication Report (RRR) meta-analytically combines the results of 16 new direct replications of the original study, all of which followed a standardized, vetted, and preregistered protocol. The results showed little effect of the priming manipulation on the forgiveness outcome measures, but it also did not observe an effect of priming on subjective commitment, so the manipulation did not work as it had in the original study. We discuss possible explanations for the discrepancy between the findings from this RRR and the original study.
This chapter considers four general types of declining effect sizes, include false positive decline effects, inflated decline effects, under-specified decline effects, and genuinely decreasing decline effects, each of which relates to the hypothetical true effect size of the finding in question at the time it was originally reported. Publication practices can create a decline effect through multiple routes. Arguably the most insidious artifactual source of decline effects is selective reporting. Replication studies need to be devised that systematically investigate specific hypotheses regarding the factors that may contribute to decline effects. To discover if a decline effect represents a genuine diminishment in the effect due to non-conventional mechanisms such as observation, researchers must make multiple observations over time that: fully replicate the procedure; maintain the same sample sizes; sample from the same populations; and use the same analytical methods.
In 2011, one of the authors (DJB) published a report of nine experiments in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology purporting to demonstrate that an individual's cognitive and affective responses can be influenced by randomly selected stimulus events that do not occur until after his or her responses have already been made and recorded, a generalized variant of the phenomenon traditionally denoted by the term precognition. To encourage replications, all materials needed to conduct them were made available on request. We here report a meta-analysis of 90 experiments from 33 laboratories in 14 countries which yielded an overall effect greater than 6 sigma, z = 6.40, p = 1.2 × 10 -10 with an effect size (Hedges' g) of 0.09. A Bayesian analysis yielded a Bayes Factor of 1.4 × 10 9, greatly exceeding the criterion value of 100 for "decisive evidence" in support of the experimental hypothesis. When DJB's original experiments are excluded, the combined effect size for replications by independent investigators is 0.06, z = 4.16, p = 1.1 × 10 -5, and the BF value is 3,853, again exceeding the criterion for "decisive evidence." The number of potentially unretrieved experiments required to reduce the overall effect size of the complete database to a trivial value of 0.01 is 544, and seven of eight additional statistical tests support the conclusion that the database is not significantly compromised by either selection bias or by " p-hacking"-the selective suppression of findings or analyses that failed to yield statistical significance. P-curve analysis, a recently introduced statistical technique, estimates the true effect size of our database to be 0.20, virtually identical to the effect size of DJB's original experiments (0.22) and the closely related "presentiment" experiments (0.21). We discuss the controversial status of precognition and other anomalous effects collectively known as psi.
We describe a method of quantifying the effect of Questionable Research Practices (QRPs) on the results of meta-analyses. As an example we simulated a meta-analysis of a controversial telepathy protocol to assess the extent to which these experimental results could be explained by QRPs. Our simulations used the same numbers of studies and trials as the original meta-analysis and the frequencies with which various QRPs were applied in the simulated experiments were based on surveys of experimental psychologists. Results of both the meta-analysis and simulations were characterized by 4 metrics, two describing the trial and mean experiment hit rates (HR) of around 31%, where 25% is expected by chance, one the correlation between sample-size and hit-rate, and one the complete P-value distribution of the database. A genetic algorithm optimized the parameters describing the QRPs, and the fitness of the simulated meta-analysis was defined as the sum of the squares of Z-scores for the 4 metrics. Assuming no anomalous effect a good fit to the empirical meta-analysis was found only by using QRPs with unrealistic parameter-values. Restricting the parameter space to ranges observed in studies of QRP occurrence, under the untested assumption that parapsychologists use comparable QRPs, the fit to the published Ganzfeld meta-analysis with no anomalous effect was poor. We allowed for a real anomalous effect, be it unidentified QRPs or a paranormal effect, where the HR ranged from 25% (chance) to 31%. With an anomalous HR of 27% the fitness became F = 1.8 (p = 0.47 where F = 0 is a perfect fit). We conclude that the very significant probability cited by the Ganzfeld meta-analysis is likely inflated by QRPs, though results are still significant (p = 0.003) with QRPs. Our study demonstrates that quantitative simulations of QRPs can assess their impact. Since meta-analyses in general might be polluted by QRPs, this method has wide applicability outside the domain of experimental parapsychology.
Good self-control has been linked to adaptive outcomes such as better health, cohesive personal relationships, success in the workplace and at school, and less susceptibility to crime and addictions. In contrast, self-control failure is linked to maladaptive outcomes. Understanding the mechanisms by which self-control predicts behavior may assist in promoting better regulation and outcomes. A popular approach to understanding self-control is the strength or resource depletion model. Self-control is conceptualized as a limited resource that becomes depleted after a period of exertion resulting in self-control failure. The model has typically been tested using a sequential-task experimental paradigm, in which people completing an initial self-control task have reduced self-control capacity and poorer performance on a subsequent task, a state known as ego depletion. Although a meta-analysis of ego-depletion experiments found a medium-sized effect, subsequent meta-analyses have questioned the size and existence of the effect and identified instances of possible bias. The analyses served as a catalyst for the current Registered Replication Report of the ego-depletion effect. Multiple laboratories (k = 23, total N = 2,141) conducted replications of a standardized ego-depletion protocol based on a sequential-task paradigm by Sripada et al. Meta-analysis of the studies revealed that the size of the ego-depletion effect was small with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) that encompassed zero (d = 0.04, 95% CI [−0.07, 0.15]. We discuss implications of the findings for the ego-depletion effect and the resource depletion model of self-control.
This is a preprint draft of our chapter on PSI
Empirically analyzing empirical evidence
One of the central goals in any scientific endeavor is to understand causality. Experiments that seek to demonstrate a cause/effect relation most often manipulate the postulated causal factor. Aarts et al. describe the replication of 100 experiments reported in papers published in 2008 in three high-ranking psychology journals. Assessing whether the replication and the original experiment yielded the same result according to several criteria, they find that about one-third to one-half of the original findings were also observed in the replication study.
Science , this issue 10.1126/science.aac4716
Background: We explore whether the number of null results in large National Heart Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) funded trials has increased over time.
Methods: We identified all large NHLBI supported RCTs between 1970 and 2012 evaluating drugs or dietary supplements for the treatment or prevention of cardiovascular disease. Trials were included if direct costs >$500,000/year, participants were adult humans, and the primary outcome was cardiovascular risk, disease or death. The 55 trials meeting these criteria were coded for whether they were published prior to or after the year 2000, whether they registered in clinicaltrials.gov prior to publication, used active or placebo comparator, and whether or not the trial had industry co-sponsorship. We tabulated whether the study reported a positive, negative, or null result on the primary outcome variable and for total mortality.
Results: 17 of 30 studies (57%) published prior to 2000 showed a significant benefit of intervention on the primary outcome in comparison to only 2 among the 25 (8%) trials published after 2000 (χ2=12.2,df= 1, p=0.0005). There has been no change in the proportion of trials that compared treatment to placebo versus active comparator. Industry co-sponsorship was unrelated to the probability of reporting a significant benefit. Pre-registration in clinical trials.gov was strongly associated with the trend toward null findings.
Conclusions: The number NHLBI trials reporting positive results declined after the year 2000. Prospective declaration of outcomes in RCTs, and the adoption of transparent reporting standards, as required by clinicaltrials.gov, may have contributed to the trend toward null findings.
This issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science reports an unprecedented replication effort entailing numerous independent laboratories conducting two versions of the verbal overshadowing paradigm (Schooler & Engstler-Schooler, 1990) using different timing intervals. The results (Alogna et al., 2014, this issue) provide unequivocal support for the existence of verbal overshadowing-the finding that describing a previously seen face can impair its subsequent recognition-while simultaneously revealing a number of factors that may have contributed to challenges in replicating verbal overshadowing in the past. In this commentary, I review my participation in this process and consider the implications of the results of this replication effort for verbal overshadowing, the decline effect, and the general goal of metascience: turning the lens of science onto itself.
© The Author(s) 2014.
The need for improved methodology for psychological research has recently received much attention. The primary recommendation has been increased emphasis on confirmatory or replication research that is carefully planned with adequate sample size and is pre-registered (Wagenmakers et al., 2012; Nosek and Lakens, 2014; Simons et al., 2014). Study registration options are currently being developed and implemented. Based on our experience operating a study registry, we offer practical recommendations and observations that may be useful when implementing study registration more widely.
In the fall of 2012, we opened a study registry at the University of Edinburgh's Koestler Parapsychology Unit (KPU) (KPU Registry, 2012). Consistent with the standards for registering clinical trials (International Committee of Medical Journal Editors, 2005), the registry focuses on public, prospective registration with specified registration information, and is not affiliated with a specific journal. The present discussion addresses methodology, not the findings of the registered studies. Parapsychological researchers have strived to utilize the established research methods of experimental psychology. This aspiration has resulted in increasing publications in high profile psychology journals (Bosch et al., 2006; Storm et al., 2010; Bem, 2011), but has not provided noticeable progress in resolving the debates about parapsychology. This situation was a significant factor in the recognition by psychologists that improved research methodology was needed (Pashler and Wagenmakers, 2012; Wagenmakers et al., 2012).
Based on experience working in regulated medical research, the second author has long advocated that the standard research methods for academic psychology were not adequate for controversial research like parapsychology and that formal, pre-registered, well-powered confirmatory research was needed (Kennedy, 2004). The first author also pointed out the value of pre-registered confirmatory research (Watt, 2005). However, these proposals received little interest at that time. The limitations of the common psychological research methods became increasingly apparent over the years and we began developing the KPU Registry (2012). As we were starting to send notices that the registry was open, a group of articles was published (Pashler and Wagenmakers, 2012) that significantly increased awareness of the need for these practices. Discussions of study registration now usually focus on how registration should be done rather than whether registration is beneficial. In the present paper we make several recommendations for avoiding pitfalls and obtaining the full benefits of study registration.
Simple Summary
Large earthquakes (EQs) cause severe damage to property and people. They occur abruptly, and it is difficult to predict their time, location, and magnitude. However, there are reports of abnormal changes occurring in various natural systems prior to EQs. Unusual animal behaviors (UABs) are important phenomena. These UABs could be useful for predicting EQs, although their reliability has remained uncertain yet. We report on changes in particular animal species preceding a large EQ to improve the research on predicting EQs.
Abstract
Unusual animal behaviors (UABs) have been observed before large earthquakes (EQs), however, their mechanisms are unclear. While information on UABs has been gathered after many EQs, few studies have focused on the ratio of emerged UABs or specific behaviors prior to EQs. On 11 March 2011, an EQ (Mw 9.0) occurred in Japan, which took about twenty thousand lives together with missing and killed persons. We surveyed UABs of pets preceding this EQ using a questionnaire. Additionally, we explored whether dairy cow milk yields varied before this EQ in particular locations. In the results, 236 of 1,259 dog owners and 115 of 703 cat owners observed UABs in their pets, with restless behavior being the most prominent change in both species. Most UABs occurred within one day of the EQ. The UABs showed a precursory relationship with epicentral distance. Interestingly, cow milk yields in a milking facility within 340 km of the epicenter decreased significantly about one week before the EQ. However, cows in facilities farther away showed no significant decreases. Since both the pets’ behavior and the dairy cows’ milk yields were affected prior to the EQ, with careful observation they could contribute to EQ predictions.
Independent replication of studies before publication may reveal sources of unreliable results, says Jonathan W. Schooler.
Science thrives when there is an open, informed discussion of all evidence, and recognition that scientific knowledge is provisional and subject to revision. This attitude is in stark contrast with reaching conclusions based solely on a previous set of beliefs or on the assertions of authority figures. Indeed, the search for knowledge wherever it may lead inspired a group of notable scientists and philosophers to found in 1882 the Society for Psychical Research in London. Its purpose was “to investigate that large body of debatable phenomena… without prejudice or prepossession of any kind, and in the same spirit of exact and unimpassioned inquiry which has enabled Science to solve so many problems.” Some of the areas in consciousness they investigated such as psychological dissociation, hypnosis, and preconscious cognition are now well integrated into mainstream science. That has not been the case with research on phenomena such as purported telepathy or precognition, which some scientists (a clear minority according to the surveys conducted http://en.wikademia.org/Surveys_of_academic_opinion_regarding_parapsychology) dis-miss a priori as pseudoscience or illegitimate. Contrary to the negative impression given by some critics, we would like to stress the following:
Each of the two authors recently attempted to replicate studies in which the "receivers" were asked to psychically detect the gaze directed at them by unseen "senders." R. W.'s studies failed to find any significant effects; M. S.'s study gave positive results. The authors then agreed to carry out the joint study described in this paper, in the hope of determining why they had originally obtained such different results. The experimental design was based on each author carrying out separate experiments, but running them in the same location, using the same equipment/procedures, and drawing participants from the same subject pool. The 32 experimental sessions were divided into two sets of randomly ordered trials. Half were "stare" trials during which the experimenter directed his/her attention toward the receiver; half were "non-stare" (control) trials during which the experimenter directed his/her attention away from the receiver. The receivers' electrodermal activity (EDA) was continuously recorded throughout each session. The EDA of R. W.'s receivers was not significantly different during stare and non-stare trials. By contrast, the EDA of M. S.'s receivers was significantly higher in stare than non-stare trials. The paper discusses the likelihood of different interpretations of this effect and urges other psi proponents and skeptics to run similar joint studies.
Speculations about the role of consciousness in physical systems are frequently observed in the literature concerned with the interpretation of quantum mechanics. While only three experimental investigations can be found on this topic in physics journals, more than 800 relevant experiments have been reported in the literature of parapsychology. A well-defined body of empirical evidence from this domain was reviewed using meta-analytic techniques to assess methodological quality and overall effect size. Results showed effects conforming to chance expectation in control conditions and unequivocal non-chance effects in experimental conditions. This quantitative literature review agrees with the findings of two earlier reviews, suggesting the existence of some form of consciousness-related anomaly in random physical systems.
In this chapter the framework of quantum field theory is introduced.
David Hume's Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion is a philosophical classic that displays a powerful mastery of the critical thinking skills of reasoning and evaluation. Hume's subject, the question of the existence and possible nature of God, was, and still is, a persistent topic of philosophical and theological debate. What makes Hume's text a classic of reasoning, though, is less what he says, than how he says it. As he noted in his preface to the book, the question of 'natural religion' was unanswerable: so 'obscure and uncertain' that 'human reason can reach no fixed determination with regard to it.' Hume chose, as a result, to cast his thoughts on the topic in the form of a dialogue - allowing different points of view to be reasoned out, evaluated and answered by different characters. Considering and judging different or opposing points of view, as Hume's characters do, is an important part of reasoning, and is vital to building strong persuasive arguments. Even if, as Hume suggests, there can be no final answer to what a god might be like, Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion shows high-level reasoning and evaluation at their best.
To make progress on the problem of consciousness, we have to confront it directly. In this paper, I first isolate the truly hard part of the problem, separating it from more tractable parts and giving an account of why it is so difficult to explain. I critique some recent work that uses reductive methods to address consciousness, and argue that these methods inevitably fail to come to grips with the hardest part of the problem. Once this failure is recognized, the door to further progress is opened. In the second half of the paper, I argue that if we move to a new kind of nonreductive explanation, a naturalistic account of consciousness can be given. I put forward my own candidate for such an account: a nonreductive theory based on principles of structural coherence and organizational invariance and a double-aspect view of information.
Finkel, Rusbult, Kumashiro, and Hannon (2002, Study 1) demonstrated a causal link between subjective commitment to a relationship and how people responded to hypothetical betrayals of that relationship. Participants primed to think about their commitment to their partner (high commitment) reacted to the betrayals with reduced exit and neglect responses relative to those primed to think about their independence from their partner (low commitment). The priming manipulation did not affect constructive voice and loyalty responses. Although other studies have demonstrated a correlation between subjective commitment and responses to betrayal, this study provides the only experimental evidence that inducing changes to subjective commitment can causally affect forgiveness responses. This Registered Replication Report (RRR) meta-analytically combines the results of 16 new direct replications of the original study, all of which followed a standardized, vetted, and preregistered protocol. The results showed little effect of the priming manipulation on the forgiveness outcome measures, but it also did not observe an effect of priming on subjective commitment, so the manipulation did not work as it had in the original study. We discuss possible explanations for the discrepancy between the findings from this RRR and the original study.
A paper from the Open Science Collaboration (Research Articles, 28 August 2015, aac4716) attempting to replicate 100 published studies suggests that the reproducibility of psychological science is surprisingly low. We show that this article contains three statistical errors and provides no support for such a conclusion. Indeed, the data are consistent with the opposite conclusion, namely, that the reproducibility of psychological science is quite high.
This meta-analysis examined a database of studies published in the main parapsychology journals from 1935-1997 that compared outcomes of precognition and clairvoyance trials under relatively similar experimental conditions. Both the precognition and clairvoyance studies had a statistically significant cumulated overall effect but there was no evidence to suggest that clairvoyance worked better than precognition, with the mean effect sizes (z/N1/2) of the two types of ESP in the 22 study pairs being very similar at 0.010 for precognition and 0.009 for clairvoyance. There were no statistically significant correlations between the presence of procedural safeguards and effect size and hence no suggestion that methodological problems had played any strong and obvious role in the overall effects, although the small database would be expected to provide relatively low statistical power for detecting any such effects. None of the planned analyses examining the effects of potential moderator variables upon effect size were statistically significant but a post-hoc ANOVA indicated a statistically significant interaction, F (1, 16) = 15.04, p = .001. between whether the trials were precognitive or clairvoyant and how the two types of trial were interspersed (separated into studies or mixed within a study). Being a post-hoc result and one of many analyses performed, this finding may not be meaningful. Equally, however, the general lack of significant findings does not conclusively indicate a lack of genuine relationships, given the low statistical power in the database. In case low power had in fact been a problem in identifying moderator variables, contrast between groups in effect size alone, regardless of the statistical significance of the difference was used as a criterion to identify promising variables to examine or exploit in future research. These variables and suggestions for future research are discussed.
This article presents a meta-analysis of experiments testing the hypothesis that consciousness (in particular, mental intention) can cause tossed dice to land with specified targets face up. Seventy-three English language reports, published from 1935 to 1987, were retrieved. This litera- ture describes 148 studies reported by a total of 52 investigators, involving more than 2 million dice throws contributed by 2,569 subjects. The full database indicates the presence of a physical bias that artifactually inflated hit rates when higher dice faces (e.g., the "6" face) were used as targets. Analysis of a subset of 59 homogeneous studies employing experimental protocols that controlled for these biases suggests that the experimental effect size is independently replicable, significantly positive, and not explain- ~ able as an artifact of selective reporting or differences in methodological quality. The estimated effect size for the full database lies more than 19 standard deviations from chance while the effect size for the subset of bal- l anced, homogeneous studies lies 2.6 standard deviations from chance. We conclude that this database provides weak cumulative evidence for a genu- ine relationship between mental intention and the fall of dice.
Using Copernicanism, Darwinism, and Freudianism as examples of scientific traditions, Copernicus, Darwin and Freud takes a philosophical look at these three revolutions in thought to illustrate the connections between science and philosophy. Shows how these revolutions in thought lead to philosophical consequences. Provides extended case studies of Copernicanism, Darwinism, and Freudianism. Integrates the history of science and the philosophy of science like no other text. Covers both the philosophy of natural and social science in one volume.
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Trying to remember something now typically improves your ability to remember it later. However, after watching a video of a simulated bank robbery, participants who verbally described the robber were 25% worse at identifying the robber in a lineup than were participants who instead listed U.S. states and capitalsthis has been termed the verbal overshadowing effect (Schooler & Engstler-Schooler, 1990). More recent studies suggested that this effect might be substantially smaller than first reported. Given uncertainty about the effect size, the influence of this finding in the memory literature, and its practical importance for police procedures, we conducted two collections of preregistered direct replications (RRR1 and RRR2) that differed only in the order of the description task and a filler task. In RRR1, when the description task immediately followed the robbery, participants who provided a description were 4% less likely to select the robber than were those in the control condition. In RRR2, when the description was delayed by 20 min, they were 16% less likely to select the robber. These findings reveal a robust verbal overshadowing effect that is strongly influenced by the relative timing of the tasks. The discussion considers further implications of these replications for our understanding of verbal overshadowing.
Using a 1978 national Gallup poll, we test the hypothesis that social marginality is a predictor of belief in paranormal phenomena. Being female and not being married generally correlate as hypothesized with paranormal belief, but age, low education, being Black, and being unemployed generally do not. The marginality hypothesis has a questionable theoretical foundation and fails to predict a variety of beliefs consistently.
• At most of our American Colleges there are Clubs formed by the students devoted to particular branches of learning; and these clubs have the laudable custom of inviting once or twice a year some maturer scholar to address them, the occasion often being made a public one. I have from time to time accepted such invitations, and afterwards had my discourse printed in one or other of the Reviews. It has seemed to me that these addresses might now be worthy of collection in a volume, as they shed explanatory light upon each other, and taken together express a tolerably definite philosophic attitude in a very untechnical way. Were I obliged to give a short name to the attitude in question, I should call it that of radical empiricism, in spite of the fact that such brief nicknames are nowhere more misleading than in philosophy. I say 'empiricism,' because it is contented to regard its most assured conclusions concerning matters of fact as hypotheses liable to modification in the course of future experience; and I say 'radical,' because it treats the doctrine of monism itself as an hypothesis, and, unlike so much of the half-way empiricism that is current under the name of positivism or agnosticism or scientific naturalism, it does not dogmatically affirm monism as something with which all experience has got to square. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
• At most of our American Colleges there are Clubs formed by the students devoted to particular branches of learning; and these clubs have the laudable custom of inviting once or twice a year some maturer scholar to address them, the occasion often being made a public one. I have from time to time accepted such invitations, and afterwards had my discourse printed in one or other of the Reviews. It has seemed to me that these addresses might now be worthy of collection in a volume, as they shed explanatory light upon each other, and taken together express a tolerably definite philosophic attitude in a very untechnical way. Were I obliged to give a short name to the attitude in question, I should call it that of radical empiricism, in spite of the fact that such brief nicknames are nowhere more misleading than in philosophy. I say 'empiricism,' because it is contented to regard its most assured conclusions concerning matters of fact as hypotheses liable to modification in the course of future experience; and I say 'radical,' because it treats the doctrine of monism itself as an hypothesis, and, unlike so much of the half-way empiricism that is current under the name of positivism or agnosticism or scientific naturalism, it does not dogmatically affirm monism as something with which all experience has got to square. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Executive Summary Studies of paranormal phenomena have nearly always been associated with controversy. Despite the controversy concerning their nature and existence, many individuals and organizations continue to be avidly interested in these phenomena. The intelligence community is no exception: beginning in the 1970s, it has conducted a program intended to investigate the application of one paranormal phenomenon—remote viewing, or the ability to describe locations one has not visited. Conceptually, remote viewing would seem to have tremendous potential utility for the intelligence community. Accordingly, a three-component program involving basic research, operations, and foreign assessment has been in place for some time. Prior to transferring this program to a new sponsoring organization within the intelligence community, a thorough program review was initiated. The part of the program review conducted by the American Institutes for Research (AIR), a nonprofit, private research organization, consisted of two main components. The first component was a review of the research program. The second component was a review of the operational application of the remote viewing phenomenon in intelligence gathering. Evaluation of the foreign assessment component of the program was not within the scope of the present effort.
A recent wave of studies-more than 100 conducted over the last decade-has shown that exerting effort at controlling impulses or behavioral tendencies leaves a person depleted and less able to engage in subsequent rounds of regulation. Regulatory depletion is thought to play an important role in everyday problems (e.g., excessive spending, overeating) as well as psychiatric conditions, but its neurophysiological basis is poorly understood. Using a placebo-controlled, double-blind design, we demonstrated that the psychostimulant methylphenidate (commonly known as Ritalin), a catecholamine reuptake blocker that increases dopamine and norepinephrine at the synaptic cleft, fully blocks effort-induced depletion of regulatory control. Spectral analysis of trial-by-trial reaction times revealed specificity of methylphenidate effects on regulatory depletion in the slow-4 frequency band. This band is associated with the operation of resting-state brain networks that produce mind wandering, which raises potential connections between our results and recent brain-network-based models of control over attention.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.29.454
Because scientists tend to report only studies (publication bias) or analyses (p-hacking) that "work," readers must ask, "Are these effects true, or do they merely reflect selective reporting?" We introduce p-curve as a way to answer this question. P-curve is the distribution of statistically significant p values for a set of studies (ps < .05). Because only true effects are expected to generate right-skewed p-curves-containing more low (.01s) than high (.04s) significant p values-only right-skewed p-curves are diagnostic of evidential value. By telling us whether we can rule out selective reporting as the sole explanation for a set of findings, p-curve offers a solution to the age-old inferential problems caused by file-drawers of failed studies and analyses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).
Preface 1. Introduction: radical probabilism 2. Valuation an dacceptance of scientific hypotheses 3. Probable knowledge 4. Probability and the art of judgment 5. Bayesianism with a human face 6. Alias Smith and Jones: the testimony of the senses 7. Conditioning, kinematics, and exchangeability 8. Preference among preferences 9. On interpersonal utility theory 10. Remarks on interpersonal utility theory 11. Mises redux 12. Statistical explanation vs. statistical inference 13. New foundations for Bayesian decision theory 14. Frameworks for preference 15. Axiomatizing the logic of decision 16. A note on the kinematics of preference.
This is a reprinting of the paper by Brandon Carter, first published in a little-known volume of conference proceedings in 1974, that moved the anthropic principle from the realm of philosophical speculations to the subject of theoretical physics. The paper has been selected by the Editors of General Relativity and Gravitation for re-publication in the Golden Oldies series of the journal. This republication is accompanied by an editorial note written by G. Ellis [Gen. Relativ. Gravitation 43, No. 11, 3213–3223 (2011; Zbl 1230.83102)].
Significant relationships were found between creativity and the belief in psychical phenomena in 110 undergraduates in a creativity class. Scores on a test of belief in ESP were related to creativity in class projects, to scores on the What Kind of Person Are You? test, and to scores on the Personal-Social Motivation Inventory. Sensation-Seeking Scale results correlated significantly with ratings of creativity in class projects. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Most academic psychologists do not yet accept the existence of psi, anomalous processes of information or energy transfer (e.g., telepathy or other forms of extrasensory perception) that are currently unexplained in terms of known physical or biological mechanisms. It is believed that the replication rates and effect sizes achieved by 1 particular experimental method, the ganzfeld procedure, are now sufficient to warrant bringing this body of data to the attention of the wider psychological community. Competing meta-analysis of the ganzfeld database are reviewed, one by R. Hyman (see record
1986-05166-001), a skeptical critic of psi research, and the other by C. Honorton (see record
1986-05165-001), a parapsychologist and major contributor to the ganzfeld database. Next the results of 11 new ganzfeld studies that comply with guidelines jointly authored by R. Hyman and C. Honorton (see record
1987-12537-001) are summarized. Issues of replication and theoretical explanation are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Comments on the debate between C. Honorton (see record
1986-05165-001) and R. Hyman (see record
1986-05166-001) about the evidence for psi in the ganzfeld situation. Their debate was a creative, constructive, and task-oriented dialog that served admirably to sharpen the issues involved. The concept of replication, distinguishing the troublesome older view with a more useful alternative is emphasized. Specific issues related to replication are discussed, including problems of multiple testing, subdividing studies, weighting replications, and problems of small effects. The earlier meta-analytic work is summarized, evaluated, and compared with a meta-analysis of a different controversial area. Rival hypotheses of procedural and statistical types are discussed, and a tentative inference is offered. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Cooperation is central to human social behaviour. However, choosing to cooperate requires individuals to incur a personal cost to benefit others. Here we explore the cognitive basis of cooperative decision-making in humans using a dual-process framework. We ask whether people are predisposed towards selfishness, behaving cooperatively only through active self-control; or whether they are intuitively cooperative, with reflection and prospective reasoning favouring 'rational' self-interest. To investigate this issue, we perform ten studies using economic games. We find that across a range of experimental designs, subjects who reach their decisions more quickly are more cooperative. Furthermore, forcing subjects to decide quickly increases contributions, whereas instructing them to reflect and forcing them to decide slowly decreases contributions. Finally, an induction that primes subjects to trust their intuitions increases contributions compared with an induction that promotes greater reflection. To explain these results, we propose that cooperation is intuitive because cooperative heuristics are developed in daily life where cooperation is typically advantageous. We then validate predictions generated by this proposed mechanism. Our results provide convergent evidence that intuition supports cooperation in social dilemmas, and that reflection can undermine these cooperative impulses.
Across 7 experiments (N = 3,289), we replicate the procedure of Experiments 8 and 9 from Bem (2011), which had originally demonstrated retroactive facilitation of recall. We failed to replicate that finding. We further conduct a meta-analysis of all replication attempts of these experiments and find that the average effect size (d = 0.04) is no different from 0. We discuss some reasons for differences between the results in this article and those presented in Bem (2011). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).
I argue that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to become extinct before
reaching a ‘posthuman’ stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations
of its evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows
that the belief that there is a significant chance that we shall one day become posthumans who run ancestor‐simulations is
false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. I discuss some consequences of this result.
The widespread belief that animals can anticipate earthquakes (EQs) is poorly supported by evidence, most of which consists of anecdotal post hoc recollections and relates to a very short period immediately before such events. In this study, a population of reproductively active common toads Bufo bufo were monitored over a period of 29 days, before, during and after the EQ (on day 10) at L'Aquila, Italy, in April 2009. Although our study site is 74 km from L'Aquila, toads showed a dramatic change in behaviour 5 days before the EQ, abandoning spawning and not resuming normal behaviour until some days after the event. It is unclear what environmental stimuli the toads were responding to so far in advance of the EQ, but reduced toad activity coincides with pre-seismic perturbations in the ionosphere, detected by very low frequency (VLF) radio sounding. We compare the response of toads to the EQ with the reported responses to seismic activity of several other species.