PresentationPDF Available

Reproduction of 10m-wind and sea level pressure fields during extreme storms with regional and global atmospheric reanalyses in the North Sea and the Baltic

Authors:
Natacha Fery at Vattenfall Vindkraft AB
Natacha Fery
  • Vattenfall Vindkraft AB
Birger Tinz at German Meteorological Service
Birger Tinz
Anette Ganske at TIB – Leibniz Information Centre for Science and Technology
Anette Ganske
Lydia Gates
Lydia Gates
Lydia Gates
  • This person is not on ResearchGate, or hasn't claimed this research yet.
Download file PDFDownload file PDF
Read file
Download citation

Figures

Figures - uploaded by Natacha Fery
Author content
All figure content in this area was uploaded by Natacha Fery
Content may be subject to copyright.
2BalticEarth2018_Fery_et_
al.pdf
Content uploaded by Natacha Fery
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Natacha Fery on Mar 03, 2024
Content may be subject to copyright.
helsingor2018_abstract_fery_et_al_sho
rt.pdf
Content uploaded by Natacha Fery
Author content
All content in this area was uploaded by Natacha Fery on Apr 06, 2018
Content may be subject to copyright.
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Natacha Fery1, Birger Tinz1, Anette Ganske2 and Lydia Gates1
1 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany
2 Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg, Germany
Reproduction of 10 m-wind and sea level pressure
fields during extreme storms with regional and
global atmospheric reanalyses in the North Sea
and the Baltic
Overview
Context : Project EXTREMENESS
Description of the data
- Atmospheric reanalyses
- Observations
Case studies – Validation of the 10 m-wind and sea level pressure
Conclusions
1/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Overview
Context : Project EXTREMENESS
Description of the data
- Atmospheric reanalyses
- Observations
Case studies – Validation of the 10 m-wind and sea level pressure
Conclusions
2/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Project EXTREMENESS
„EXTREME North sEa Storm Surges
and their consequences“
Analysis of wind fields inducing
storm surges in atmospheric data
[EXTREMENESS-B]
More details about this project in the
presentation of Ralf Weisse:
‚Identification of extreme storm tides
with high potential for the German
North Sea coast‘ – Topic D
3/21
https://www.hzg.de/ms/extremeness/index.php.de
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Overview
4/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Context : Project EXTREMENESS
Description of the data
- Atmospheric reanalyses
- Observations
Case studies – Validation of the 10 m-wind and sea level pressure
Conclusions
Global atmospheric reanalyses
Twentieth Century Reanalysis 20CRv2c
(Compo et al., 2011)
ERAInterim (Dee et al., 2011)
5/21
20CRv2c
1851
-2016
6
h
2
°
FF10M, DD, PS
Gobal
, NOAA
2D, 56 Ensembles
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
20CRv2c
1851
-2016
6
h
2
°
FF10M, DD, PS
Gobal
, NOAA
2D, 56 Ensembles
ERA
-Interim
1979
-today
6
h
0.75°
FF10M, DD, PS
Global, ECMWF
2D
The regional atmospheric reanalysis COSMO-REA6
Product of the Deutscher Wetterdienst/University of Bonn
(Bollmeyer et al., 2012)
Validation (Borsche et al., 2016)
Here, applications for extreme events (storms)
6/21
COSMO-REA6 1995-2015
1 h 0.055°
6x6 km
FF, DD, PS
Regional
EURO-Cordex domain
2D and 3D information
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Overview
7/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Context : Project EXTREMENESS
Description of the data
- Atmospheric reanalyses
- Observations
Case studies – Validation of the 10 m-wind and sea level pressure
Conclusions
Overview of the measurement network
8/21
FINO1 [North
Sea]
2004
-2015
10 min
FINO2 [Baltic
Sea]
2007
-2015
10 min
FINO3 [North
Sea]
2009
-2015
10 min
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
FINO1 [North
Sea]
2004
-2015
10 min
FINO2 [Baltic
Sea]
2007
-2015
10 min
FINO3 [North
Sea]
2009
-2015
10 min
German
Naval
Observatory
Borkum (1883
-1991)
Cuxhaven
Heligoland
6 h
DWD
Climate Data
Centre
(CDC)
Borkum (1967
-2016)
Cuxhaven
(1969-2016)
Heligoland
(1959-2016)
1
h
FINO1 [North Sea]
2004
-2015
10 min
FINO2 [Baltic
Sea]
2007
-2015
10 min
FINO3 [North
Sea]
2009
-2015
10 min
German
Naval
Observatory
Borkum (1883
-1991)
Cuxhaven
Heligoland
6 h
Parameters: wind speed / wind direction / pressure
FINO research platforms
German Naval Observatory
DWD Climate Data Centre [CDC ftp://ftp-cdc.dwd.de/ ]
Overview
9/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Context : Project EXTREMENESS
Description of the data
- Atmospheric reanalyses
- Observations
Case studies – Validation of the 10 m-wind and sea level pressure
Conclusions
Validation for case studies – Storms in 2013
Christian
10.2013 Xaver
12.2013
06.12.2013 06:00 UTC
28.10.2013 14:02 UTC
10/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Validation for case studies – FINO1
11/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Validation for case studies – FINO2
12/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Validation for case studies – FINO3 [105°]
13/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Mast corrections at the FINO platforms
Algorithm developed during the project FINO Wind to correct the mast effect
180°
0°
90° 270°
Christian
14/21
Example of correction at FINO1 during
Xaver
-- FINO1 142°
-- FINO2 180°
-- FINO3 105°,225°,345°
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Statistics
Wind speed
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
15/21
Spatial distribution
16/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Oct. 2013
Wind speed [FF]
Pressure at Mean
Sea Level [PMSL]
COSMO-REA6 ERAInterim 20CRv2c
Spatial distribution
Dec. 2013
17/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Wind speed [FF]
Pressure at Mean
Sea Level [PMSL]
COSMO-REA6 ERAInterim 20CRv2c
Storm tracks
Secondary low Example with 20CR
18/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Storm tracks
19/21
Example with COSMO-REA6
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Overview
20/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Context : Project EXTREMENESS
Description of the data
- Atmospheric reanalyses
- Observations
Case studies – Validation of the 10 m-wind and sea level pressure
Conclusions
Conclusions
Global atmospheric reanalyses are suitable to describe the main
characteristics of storms in the North Sea and the Baltic
Emphasis was given to 2 recent storms to which wind information is available
at locations with the best data coverage
Global reanalyses => only long lasting storms (often leading to storm surges
along the coasts)
Regional reanalyses => short and long lasting storms
Similar results were found for additional analysed storms (i.e 2006, 2007)
Importance of atmospheric observations over sea for calibration/validation of
the numerical modesl (i.e reanalyses)
Overall, the mast correction of the measurements at the FINO research
platforms performs well
21/21
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Thank you for your attention
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Literature
Bollmeyer, C., Keller, J. D., Ohlwein, C., Wahl, S., Crewell, S., Friederichs, P., . . . Steinke,
S. (2015). Towards a high-resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX domain.
Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, 1-15.
doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2486
Borsche, M., et al. (2016). "Wind speed variability between 10 and 116 m height from the
regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 compared to wind mast measurements over Northern
Germany and the Netherlands." Advances in Sciences and Research 13: 151-161.
Compo, G. P., et al. (2011). "The twentieth Century Reanalysis Project." Quaterly Journal of
the Royal Meteorological Society 137: 1-28.
Dee, D. P., et al. (2011). "The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the
data assimilation system." Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137.
Leiding, T., et al. (2014). "Meteorological and oceanographic conditions at the FINO
platforms during the severe storms Christian and Xaver." DEWI-Magazin 44: 16-26.
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, natacha.fery@dwd.de
Other storms
Britta 11.2006 and Kyrill 2007 (measured by FINO1 only)
Coastal station Heligoland (North Sea)
15/22
2nd Baltic Earth Conference 2018, 12.06.2018, Helsingør, Denmark, natacha.fery@dwd.de
... In the literature, multiple comparisons between in-situ measurements and IFS model wind speed close the surface have concluded that for strong wind conditions the IFS model wind speeds are smaller than measured values and smaller than other reanalysis datasets (global, or regional), see for instance (Fery et al., 2018) ...
Underestimation of strong wind speeds offshore in ERA5: evidence, discussion, and correction
Preprint
Full-text available
  • Mar 2024
Offshore Wind power plants have become an important element of the European electrical grid. Studies of metocean site conditions (wind, sea state, currents, water levels) form a key input to the design of these large infrastructure projects. Such studies heavily rely on reanalysis datasets which provide decades-long model time series over large areas. In this article, we address a known deficiency of one these reanalysis datasets, ERA5, namely that it underestimates strong wind speeds offshore. For doing so, comparisons are made against CFSR/CFSv2 reanalyses as well as high quality wind energy specific in-situ measurements from floating LiDAR systems. The ERA5 surface drag formulation and its sea state dependency are analysed in detail, the conditions of the bias identified, and a correction method is suggested. The article concludes with proposing practical and simple ways to incorporate publicly available, high-quality wind energy measurement datasets in air-sea interaction studies alongside legacy measurements such as met buoys.
View
Underestimation of strong wind speeds offshore in ERA5: evidence, discussion and correction
Article
Full-text available
  • Aug 2024
Offshore wind power plants have become an important element of the European electrical grid. Studies of metocean site conditions (wind, sea state, currents, water levels) form a key input to the design of these large infrastructure projects. Such studies rely heavily on reanalysis datasets which provide decades-long model time series over large areas. In turn, these time series are used for assessing wind, water levels and wave conditions and are thereby key inputs to design activities such as calculations of fatigue loads and extreme loads and platform elevations. In this article, we address a known deficiency of one these reanalysis datasets, ERA5, namely that it underestimates strong wind speeds offshore. If left uncorrected, this poses a design risk (high and extreme wind, waves and water level conditions are underestimated). Firstly, comparisons are made against CFSR/CFSv2 reanalyses as well as high-quality wind-energy-specific in situ measurements from floating lidar systems. Then, the ERA5 surface drag formulation and its sea state dependency are analysed in detail, the conditions of the bias identified, and a correction method is suggested. The article concludes with proposing practical and simple ways to incorporate publicly available, high-quality wind energy measurement datasets in air–sea interaction studies alongside legacy measurements such as met buoys.
View
Wind speed variability between 10 and 116 m height from the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 compared to wind mast measurements over Northern Germany and The Netherlands
Article
Full-text available
  • Nov 2016
Hourly and monthly mean wind speed and wind speed variability from the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 is analysed in the range of 10 to 116 m height above ground. Comparisons with independent wind mast measurements performed between 2001 and 2010 over Northern Germany over land (Lindenberg), the North Sea (FINO platforms), and The Netherlands (Cabauw) show that the COSMO-REA6 wind fields are realistic and at least as close to the measurements as the global atmospheric reanalyses (ERA20C and ERA-Interim) on the monthly scale. The median wind profiles of the reanalyses were found to be consistent with the observed ones. The mean annual cycles of variability are generally reproduced from 10 up to 116 m in the investigated reanalyses. The mean diurnal cycle is represented qualitatively near the ground by the reanalyses. At 100 m height, there is little diurnal cycle left in the global and regional reanalyses, though a diurnal cycle is still present in the measurements over land. Correlation coefficients between monthly means of the observations and the reanalyses range between 0.92 at 10 m and 0.99 at 116 m, with a slightly higher correlation of the regional reanalyses at Lindenberg at 10 m height which is significant only at a lower than 95 % significance level. Correlations of daily means tend to be higher for the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. Increasing temporal resolution further, reduces this advantage of the regional reanalysis. At around 100 m, ERA-Interim yields a higher correlation at Lindenberg and Cabauw, whereas COSMO-REA6 yields a higher correlation at FINO1 and FINO2.
View
Towards a high-resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX domain: High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Domain
Article
Atmospheric reanalyses covering the European region are mainly available as part of comparably coarse global reanalysis. The aim of this paper is to present the development and evaluation of a next generation regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX EUR-11 domain with a horizontal grid spacing of approximately 6 km. In this context, a reanalysis is understood as assimilation of heterogeneous observations with a physical model such as a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The reanalysis system presented here is based on the NWP model COSMO by the German Meteorological Service DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) using a continuous nudging scheme. In order to assess the added value of data assimilation, a dynamical downscaling experiment has been conducted, i.e., an identical model set-up but without data assimilation. Both systems have been evaluated for a one-year test period, employing standard measures such as analysis increments, biasses, or log-odds ratios, as well as tests for distributional characteristics. An important aspect is the evaluation from different perspectives and with independent measurements such as satellite infrared brightness temperatures using forward operators, integrated water vapour from GPS stations, and ceilometer cloud cover. It can be shown that the reanalysis better resolves local extreme events, which is basically an effect of the higher spatio-temporal resolution, as it is known from dynamical downscaling approaches. An important criterion for regional reanalyses, though, is the coherence with independent observations of high temporal and spatial resolution, which has significantly improved compared to dynamical downscaling. The system is intended to become operational within a year, continuously reprocessing and evaluating longer time periods. The reanalysis data is planned to become available to the research community within a year.
View
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
Article
  • Apr 2009
A potential consequence of climate variability and change is an altered likelihood of weather extremes. To estimate the fidelity of regional projections of these altered risks in the Twenty-first century, daily data is needed to assess the simulations of weather and climate throughout the Twentieth century. Such daily data must have quantified estimates of uncertainty in Twentieth century weather to allow quantitative comparison with simulations. To this end, we have begun the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. This Project is an effort to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the 20th Century assimilating only surface observations of synoptic pressure, monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice distribution. The project uses the recently developed Ensemble Filter data assimilation system which allows direct computation of both the analysis and the uncertainty in that analysis. The dataset will provide the first estimate of global tropospheric and stratospheric variability spanning more than 100 years with 6 hourly resolution. The first version has global coverage spanning 1908-1958 and 2 degree longitude-latitude horizontal resolution. Comparison with independent radiosonde data indicates that the analyses have a high quality, with correlations higher than 0.94 throughout the troposphere. Overall, the quality is similar to that of current 3-day operational numerical weather prediction forecasts, as anticipated from previous studies.
View
View
View
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
  • Jan 2011
  • 1-28
  • Cdc Climate
CDC, DWD Climate Data Center ftp://ftp-cdc.dwd.de/pub/CDC/ Compo, G. P. et al. (2011) The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, 137, pp. 1-28
Meteorological and oceanographic conditions at the FINO platforms during the severe storms Christian and Xaver
  • Jan 2006
  • 16-26
  • T Leiding
Leiding, T., et al. (2014). "Meteorological and oceanographic conditions at the FINO platforms during the severe storms Christian and Xaver." DEWI-Magazin 44: 16-26. Other storms  Britta 11.2006 and Kyrill 2007 (measured by FINO1 only)